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Intelligence withdrawal will be brutal. Model tokens are heavily subsidized. Subsidies are disappearing, and with them, so is easy "intelligence". This is the reason for Anthropic and OpenClaw's divorce. This should be a wake-up call for everyone building on top of a single provider. Your AI setup shouldn't depend...

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Santiago

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116,165 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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i built a full game on a single GPU with a 3B model and this is the worst local AI will ever be. this was supposed to be a benchmark test. load the model, measure tokens per second, write it up, move on. instead i spent 20 minutes playing Octopus Invaders because the game is genuinely fun and i couldn't stop. a model with 3B active parameters built this from a single prompt. it debugged its own collision system when bullets were phasing through enemies. read the error, found the fix, kept building. this is not a frontier API. this is a quantized open source model running on hardware you can buy used for $800-$1200. no cloud. no subscription. no API costs. just a mass produced consumer GPU doing things that would have been absurd 12 months ago. and here's the part that should keep you up at night: every month the models get smaller and smarter. the quants get tighter. the context windows get longer. the tooling gets cleaner. what 3B active parameters does today on 24gb, a 1B model will do on 8gb within a year. you are looking at the floor. not the ceiling.

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'Everyone in Washington needs to wake up. Russia is an enemy of the US' - ex-Trump adviser Bolton. 'I think the most alarming thing is the reports that Russia is supplying Iran with intelligence information about the location of American ships, aircraft, bases, and so on, presumably to help the Iranians launch strikes. I hope this will make everyone in Washington wake up and understand the role Russia is playing. It's an enemy of the United States. It has clearly demonstrated this, and this is just another proof. And we need to be careful so that Russia doesn't try to trap us - for example, by offering to stop transferring our military intelligence to the Ukrainian government in exchange for them stopping their transfer of intelligence to Iran.' - SK

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Dylan on why access to the most intelligent AI models will determine who wins in every industry: "What really matters is access to the most intelligent tokens and leveraging them at the highest-value tasks. A lot of folks will want tokens, but the shitty SaaS startup in SF who is using Claude is not necessarily creating a ton of value, and therefore they're going to get priced out of tokens. Anthropic only released Mythos to certain companies for cybersecurity. You also don't want people to distill your model so you release them to a fewer and fewer customers. Those customers are now wrestling over the tokens. Token usage and therefore the additional value generated on top of those tokens aggregates among fewer and fewer companies. I don't have Mythos but you know who has Mythos, top banks. There are people like Ken Griffin of Citadel who can just sign a deal with OpenAI or Antrhopic for access to your models. I'll buy the first $10 billion worth of tokens each year. So whenever you release the model, I'll spend the first 10 billion tokens and then everyone else can get the model after that. Now, he's going to crush everyone in the markets. I can envision because I have an enterprise Anthropic contract and Anthropic people like me, they're willing to give us slightly earlier access or higher rate limits, and then my competitor doesn't have that, and I'm able to f*cking crush them."
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Dylan on why access to the most intelligent AI models will determine who wins in every industry: "What really matters is access to the most intelligent tokens and leveraging them at the highest-value tasks. A lot of folks will want tokens, but the shitty SaaS startup in SF who is using Claude is not necessarily creating a ton of value, and therefore they're going to get priced out of tokens. Anthropic only released Mythos to certain companies for cybersecurity. You also don't want people to distill your model so you release them to a fewer and fewer customers. Those customers are now wrestling over the tokens. Token usage and therefore the additional value generated on top of those tokens aggregates among fewer and fewer companies. I don't have Mythos but you know who has Mythos, top banks. There are people like Ken Griffin of Citadel who can just sign a deal with OpenAI or Antrhopic for access to your models. I'll buy the first $10 billion worth of tokens each year. So whenever you release the model, I'll spend the first 10 billion tokens and then everyone else can get the model after that. Now, he's going to crush everyone in the markets. I can envision because I have an enterprise Anthropic contract and Anthropic people like me, they're willing to give us slightly earlier access or higher rate limits, and then my competitor doesn't have that, and I'm able to f*cking crush them."

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36,100 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Interesting that in three of my recent conversations with Krishna at Anthropic, Dylan Patel, and Gavin Baker, each said that frontier tokens are capturing the majority of the economic value. Gavin: "An overwhelming amount of the economic returns to AI at the model layer have been at the frontier. That's surprising to me, and I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. This is one of the most important questions to be answered, and you need to have a hypothesis on it as an investor." Krishna: "We think the returns to frontier intelligence are extremely high. Customers invest really heavily in more tokens with the newer models. The ones at the frontier clearly are capturing this economic value, driving meaningful ROI for customers. The returns to frontier intelligence are not slowing down." Dylan: "No one gives a crap about GPT-4 class models. They want the frontier because the frontier lets them create the economically valuable things."
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Interesting that in three of my recent conversations with Krishna at Anthropic, Dylan Patel, and Gavin Baker, each said that frontier tokens are capturing the majority of the economic value. Gavin: "An overwhelming amount of the economic returns to AI at the model layer have been at the frontier. That's surprising to me, and I think it's been surprising to a lot of people. This is one of the most important questions to be answered, and you need to have a hypothesis on it as an investor." Krishna: "We think the returns to frontier intelligence are extremely high. Customers invest really heavily in more tokens with the newer models. The ones at the frontier clearly are capturing this economic value, driving meaningful ROI for customers. The returns to frontier intelligence are not slowing down." Dylan: "No one gives a crap about GPT-4 class models. They want the frontier because the frontier lets them create the economically valuable things."

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121,110 просмотров • 1 месяц назад