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Intel's advanced packaging business has "billions of dollars" in commitments. But what if a capability few are watching is the real story? Intel has a strong optics process. Combined with EMIB, could they build a major advantage in co-packaged optics (CPO)?

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Semi Doped

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98,983 просмотров • 9 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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$INTC will be a major beneficiary of agentic AI as server CPU demand rises, GPU-to-CPU attach rates move closer to 1:1 and Intel can ramp supply through its internal foundry. Intel also has a second leg through advanced packaging with EMIB positioned as a CoWoS alternative that could reach ~$10B by 2030.
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$INTC will be a major beneficiary of agentic AI as server CPU demand rises, GPU-to-CPU attach rates move closer to 1:1 and Intel can ramp supply through its internal foundry. Intel also has a second leg through advanced packaging with EMIB positioned as a CoWoS alternative that could reach ~$10B by 2030.

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GlobalFoundries' Thomas Barber on CPO: "When you go to co-packaged optics, you are talking about something that is permanently attached inside the package of the GPU, so the reliability has to be extremely high. Companies like Meta, in particular, are going through the effort to validate the reliability of those solutions right now. Meta has released couple versions of a study they have been running for a long time with 50,000 GPUs in a network using CPO and what they found is the reliability is higher than it is with pluggables, and they found no link flaps which is the primary cause of concern in optical communications...they are doing the work and becoming more comfortable with the reliability, but they are not going to deploy at scale until they are absolutely certain that it is a reliable solution." Via Semi Doped
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GlobalFoundries' Thomas Barber on CPO: "When you go to co-packaged optics, you are talking about something that is permanently attached inside the package of the GPU, so the reliability has to be extremely high. Companies like Meta, in particular, are going through the effort to validate the reliability of those solutions right now. Meta has released couple versions of a study they have been running for a long time with 50,000 GPUs in a network using CPO and what they found is the reliability is higher than it is with pluggables, and they found no link flaps which is the primary cause of concern in optical communications...they are doing the work and becoming more comfortable with the reliability, but they are not going to deploy at scale until they are absolutely certain that it is a reliable solution." Via Semi Doped

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📣 Get a first look at the NVIDIA Photonics co-packaged optics switch with Lambda. At NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 scale, the network doesn't just move data between GPUs — it determines how fast your cluster thinks. Co-packaged optics cut switch power, reduce failure points, and deliver more tokens per watt. Here's what that looks like in practice. ➡️

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Dylan Patel believes $NVDA will not use CPO even with Feynman “We’re very bullish on copper and non-CPO optics. We're kinda bearish CPO. $APH is going to perform much better over the next few years than previously expected.” Full quote: “The spending associated with AI chips is currently at or below 10%, but when we move to CPO, networking will grow even further, to 20% or 30%. We are seeing a huge uplift in networking content. CPO is a massive step-function change for the industry, and everyone recognizes it now, but people are getting a little too exuberant. In my view, it is not coming in 2027. It will really arrive toward the end of 2028, with 2029 being the real ramp for scale-up CPO. There have been a lot of manufacturing problems. If we could deploy it today at a good cost, everyone would do it. However, it is really hard. The manufacturing volumes and yields are not there, and the chips are not fully designed for it yet. It is a very complex and difficult technology to ramp, so people are going to stay with copper for as long as they can. That means Rubin is all copper, and Feynman, the next-generation Nvidia GPU after Rubin and Rubin Ultra, is still copper. We are not even shipping Rubin yet. We have a few generations of chips before we get to CPO on the GPU. CPO on switches is coming earlier than on GPUs or AI ASICs. Even without CPO, as cluster sizes get bigger, you need more optics, active electrical cables, and similar components per GPU. We have seen a major shift in the dynamics. On Monday, we released a note for our institutional research subscribers stating that, over the medium term, we are actually very bullish on copper and non-CPO optics, while being slightly bearish on CPO. This is due to delays in downstream chips, such as Feynman not fully utilizing CPO. Copper companies like Amphenol, which make backplane connectors and cables, are going to perform much better over the next few years than previously expected because CPO is being delayed. Ultimately, integrating optics is much more expensive than sending signals electrically. However, electrical signals cannot travel very far without adding repeaters or optics. There is a trade-off continuum, and while CPO will happen, it is currently being pushed out.”
3:37

Dylan Patel believes $NVDA will not use CPO even with Feynman “We’re very bullish on copper and non-CPO optics. We're kinda bearish CPO. $APH is going to perform much better over the next few years than previously expected.” Full quote: “The spending associated with AI chips is currently at or below 10%, but when we move to CPO, networking will grow even further, to 20% or 30%. We are seeing a huge uplift in networking content. CPO is a massive step-function change for the industry, and everyone recognizes it now, but people are getting a little too exuberant. In my view, it is not coming in 2027. It will really arrive toward the end of 2028, with 2029 being the real ramp for scale-up CPO. There have been a lot of manufacturing problems. If we could deploy it today at a good cost, everyone would do it. However, it is really hard. The manufacturing volumes and yields are not there, and the chips are not fully designed for it yet. It is a very complex and difficult technology to ramp, so people are going to stay with copper for as long as they can. That means Rubin is all copper, and Feynman, the next-generation Nvidia GPU after Rubin and Rubin Ultra, is still copper. We are not even shipping Rubin yet. We have a few generations of chips before we get to CPO on the GPU. CPO on switches is coming earlier than on GPUs or AI ASICs. Even without CPO, as cluster sizes get bigger, you need more optics, active electrical cables, and similar components per GPU. We have seen a major shift in the dynamics. On Monday, we released a note for our institutional research subscribers stating that, over the medium term, we are actually very bullish on copper and non-CPO optics, while being slightly bearish on CPO. This is due to delays in downstream chips, such as Feynman not fully utilizing CPO. Copper companies like Amphenol, which make backplane connectors and cables, are going to perform much better over the next few years than previously expected because CPO is being delayed. Ultimately, integrating optics is much more expensive than sending signals electrically. However, electrical signals cannot travel very far without adding repeaters or optics. There is a trade-off continuum, and while CPO will happen, it is currently being pushed out.”

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