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Interesting, FoFty is seeing a collapse in AI GPU rental prices. What does this mean? Data center profitability margins are collapsing too. Lower margins = less cash + no reason to continue ordering Nvidia hardware While he didn't suggest AI demand is falling, I'm willing to bet most companies...

641,347 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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AMD might have disrupted Nvidia's entire cloud GPU rental business. In January at CES, AMD CEO Lisa Su demonstrated a $1,499 mini PC running the same class of AI model that currently costs companies $2,500 to $3,000 every month to rent from Nvidia-powered cloud servers. AMD's own branded version opened pre-orders this month at $3,999. Third party manufacturers have been selling the same chip since 2025 starting at $1,499. Here is exactly why this is dangerous for Nvidia. Nvidia's $75 billion quarterly revenue is built almost entirely on one business model, companies rent access to Nvidia GPUs through cloud providers like AWS and Lambda Labs to run AI. They pay monthly. Nvidia gets paid every time someone runs an AI model in the cloud. That recurring rental income is what turned Nvidia into a $5 trillion company. The AMD box eliminates that monthly fee permanently. One AI consultant switched from $2,800 per month in Nvidia cloud rental costs to $8 per month in electricity. The hardware paid for itself in 11 days. Over 8 months he generated $47,000 running the same AI workloads that previously left him paying Nvidia's ecosystem $2,800 every single month. Multiply that across thousands of enterprise customers and the revenue erosion becomes structural. Every business that buys this box stops paying cloud rental fees forever. Lawyers, doctors, banks, accountants, and financial advisors, businesses with sensitive data that cannot legally go to a cloud server represent billions in annual cloud GPU fees that Nvidia is now at risk of losing permanently. The threat is also closing in from the top. Google signed deals worth tens of billions with Anthropic and Meta to replace Nvidia with its own chips. Amazon built its own AI chips across AWS. Apple trained its AI on Google's chips, not Nvidia's. Custom silicon has grown from 21% of the AI chip market in 2025 to 28% in 2026. Nvidia's rental model only worked because serious AI compute had no alternative.

Bull Theory

26,765 views • 2 months ago

Really interesting parallel from Ben, comparing Google to Berkshire Hathaway. He says Google's search business is See's Candies. Its AI bet is Berkshire's move into the railroad: "They have See's Candies. Tremendously high margin business. The problem with a lot of high margin businesses is the percentage profit you can make is very high, but the absolute profit is small. So the brilliance of the BNSF Railway thing was they took the See's Candy profits and said, here's another industry whose margins are worse, but the absolute dollar amounts are so large that those worse margins result in absolute profits that are much larger. BNSF in one year threw off more free cash than See's Candies had thrown off in its entire lifetime. The reason why I find that story so interesting is it seems to capture where Google itself might be going. This unbelievable high margin business of search, one of the most perfect, beautiful business models of all time. And meanwhile there's this AI opportunity which requires astronomical spend. It's a cash incinerating machine. But if AI is intelligence and its TAM is basically all white collar work and eventually more, the margins are lower but the absolute profits available are much larger. Will we look back and say Google was See's Candies? It feels like that's happening. In that world, you use all your free cash flow. They've done that. You tap the debt markets to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. They've done that. You issue equity. What does an equity issue do? It dilutes your interest in your shareholders. So you have a smaller percentage of the pie. Well, you have a smaller percentage of an astronomically larger pie. At the end of the day, no one's going to be complaining. Berkshire is actually not just an investor in Google, but a model for Google and where they're going."

Patrick OShaughnessy

127,127 views • 9 days ago

Ben Thompson says Nvidia has already cut prices, they just show up as backstops and neocloud equity instead of margins "They're actually not maintaining their margins, because who is buying?" "This whole question of circular financing, people talk about Lucent and things like that. This whole deal and Nvidia's providing 25% backstop." "But if you actually ascribe a value to Nvidia's taking equity in the Neoclouds or whatever, they guarantee they're going to buy all their compute to 2030. And why do they do that? So that the entity in question can get a lower cost of capital, so they can buy more GPUs." "But implicit in that, why do they get a lower cost of capital? They get a lower cost of capital because Nvidia assumed risk." "This is my point before. Risk never disappears. It just appears somewhere else. Taking on risk has a price." "Now there is a world where AI takes off, it never stops, and everything is fine, and Nvidia captured all the upside of their risk." "But there's also a world where, say, this Neocloud they backed, a ton of compute comes to market, the hyperscalers have plenty of compute, they don't have enough demand, Nvidia is paying for a computer that no one wants. They just lost a bunch of money." "So if you think about it, there's an expected value of that investment. It's not zero. It's not 100%. It's somewhere in the middle." "But that is a diminution of Nvidia's profitability. If you actually look at their business holistically, what that is is a price cut."

Fireside Alpha

56,613 views • 10 days ago

🚨THEY CALLED HIM CRAZY FOR 20 YEARS.. HE'S ABOUT TO FILE THE BIGGEST IPO IN HISTORY.. SpaceX is quietly preparing to go public.. targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation.. bigger than Saudi Aramco.. the biggest IPO in human history.. but that's not even the real story.. in february elon merged xAI into SpaceX.. so now one single company owns the rockets.. owns about 65% of every satellite in orbit.. owns Starlink with over 10 million users.. and owns the AI.. think about that for a second.. OpenAI rents its servers from Microsoft.. Anthropic rents from Amazon.. they don't own anything.. they're tenants.. elon owns the infrastructure.. they're putting AI data centers in space.. solar powered.. no electric grid.. no cooling problems.. just satellites running AI in orbit while everyone else is fighting over GPU shipments on the ground.. the pentagon just handed them $2 billion for a defense satellite network.. starlink aviation customers are paying $300K a year.. NASA used to be their biggest customer.. now NASA is only 5% of their revenue.. they outgrew the entire US government.. this man built a company that launches the rockets.. owns the satellites.. provides the internet.. runs the AI.. and is about to go public at the highest valuation in history.. nobody is connecting the dots.. i got into xAI before the merger.. that converts to SpaceX equity before it even hits public markets.. sometimes the play is obvious.. you just have to be paying attention.

Evan Luthra

101,861 views • 4 months ago

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING TOMORROW!! In less than 24 hours, SpaceX goes public at a $1.80 TRILLION valuation. And in 10 years of trading, I have NEVER seen markets change the rules like this. Nasdaq, MSCI, and the biggest brokers in America all bent their own rules for ONE private company. The entire system suddenly became much easier to access. Fidelity reportedly dropped its minimum requirement from $500,000 to just $2,000. A 99.6% reduction. Ask yourself one question. Why do they suddenly want millions of retail investors involved right before the biggest IPO in history? Because somebody needs buyers. SpaceX reportedly reserved around 30% of the deal for retail. Almost 3 times the normal amount. And even then, demand is overwhelming supply. Now connect the dots. Everyone wants SpaceX. But money does NOT appear from nowhere. To buy $SPCX, people need cash. To get cash, they sell what they already own. → Stocks. → Crypto. → AI names. → High beta tech. Everything. And that is exactly what we are seeing right now. But that is not even the biggest part. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 just 15 days after listing. Not 3 months. 15 days. That means billions of dollars of passive money will be forced to buy. Funds know this. They are positioning before it happens. This is NOT a normal IPO. This is one of the largest liquidity events in market history. We have seen this movie before. → 2000 Dotcom bubble. → 2021 SPAC mania. Massive hype. Massive demand. Then reality arrives. The question is simple. Are you buying the opportunity? Or are you becoming the exit liquidity? I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

229,049 views • 2 months ago

Chris Bryant today all but admitted why the government refuses to accept legislation that makes AI companies reveal their training data: They are going to offer creators transparency legislation *later*, in return for upending copyright law & letting AI companies train on people's life's work without permission. His justification for rejecting transparency legislation: "If we're going to get to that proper compromise solution [between creators and AI companies], it's going to require all the bits of the jigsaw to be put together into a comprehensive picture." That is: if creators want to know when AI companies are using their work, they're going to have to give up their rights. There is no other way of interpreting this comment I can think of. He is saying creators can't get transparency from AI companies without giving something up. And there is nothing to give up except their current rights under the law, which compel AI companies to ask their permission before using their work. Bryant & co. have given no other reason to reject transparency legislation. AI companies are breaking the law, and government refuses to hold them to account. IMO this is awful treatment of the creative sector by the government. Commercial generative AI training on copyrighted work without a license is illegal in the UK; creators cannot enforce their rights, because training happens behind closed doors; the government won't empower creators to enforce their rights without requiring them to give up other rights. Bookmark this. I hope I'm wrong, and that this is not the government's plan - but I see no other conclusion you can draw from Chris Bryant's words here.

Ed Newton-Rex

24,097 views • 1 year ago

Elon Musk is using the OpenAI trial to execute the biggest personal wealth transfer in history. His plan is absolutely genius, let me break it down: The trial verdict drops May 21. The SpaceX IPO roadshow starts June 8. That's 18 days apart. And once you see the full picture, you realize the lawsuit was NEVER about saving a charity... SpaceX filed confidentially with the SEC on April 1 for the largest IPO in the history of capital markets. $1.75 trillion valuation. That shatters Saudi Aramco's record by 3x. Elon holds 42% economic ownership, which at that price makes his SpaceX stake ALONE worth over $700 billion. But that's not even the important part. In February, Musk merged xAI into SpaceX. His entire AI company is now bundled inside the IPO vehicle. So when investors buy SpaceX stock in June, they're also buying into Elon's AI bet at a $250 billion embedded valuation. Now look at what he's doing in the courtroom 30 miles away: Elon is suing to remove Sam Altman and Greg Brockman from OpenAI, unwind the for-profit conversion, and destabilize the company right before it tries to IPO at $850 billion. If the judge rules against OpenAI on May 21, their IPO timeline implodes, Microsoft's $135 billion exposure is destroyed, and investor confidence craters. And where does that money flow? Directly into SpaceX, which starts its roadshow 18 days later with a clean narrative, no legal drama, and the only major AI company going public that ISN'T facing an existential lawsuit. Elon even restructured his damages claim to make this bulletproof: He told the court that if he wins $134 billion, he wants ZERO dollars paid to him personally. Everything goes back to OpenAI's nonprofit foundation. That makes it impossible for OpenAI's lawyers to argue he's doing this for money. Because the money isn't coming from the verdict - it's coming from the IPO. Destroy your biggest AI competitor's IPO prospects in court. Absorb the investor demand 18 days later with your own IPO. Become a trillionaire in the process. Elon even texted Brockman two days before the trial started: "By the end of this week, you and Sam will be the most hated men in America. If you insist, so it will be." This is a PR campaign designed to poison public sentiment against OpenAI right before both companies compete for the same pool of IPO investors. So while everyone debates whether Altman stole a charity, nobody is looking at the calendar: May 21: Trial verdict June 8: SpaceX roadshow June 2026: Largest IPO in history Elon doesn't need to win the trial. He just needs to create enough chaos around OpenAI that investors see SpaceX as the safer bet. And right now, that plan is working. But there's ONE more move after the IPO that makes his plan complete: Elon's 2025 Tesla pay package gave him 423 million shares tied to performance targets that could take a decade to hit. - Robotaxis at scale - Optimus mass production - $400 billion in EBITDA Stuff that might never happen. Except there's a clause in the SEC filing that makes all of that irrelevant: If Tesla gets acquired, every single milestone disappears and all 423 million shares vest on the spot. ONE transaction and the entire award unlocks instantly. Now ask yourself what happens if a $1.75 trillion SpaceX buys Tesla after the IPO... Elon gets the SpaceX stake, the IPO capital, and every Tesla share vesting at once through a deal he controls on both sides. So the full plan is: Destabilize OpenAI in court, run the biggest IPO in history, use SpaceX to acquire Tesla, trigger the clause, vest everything, and become a trillionaire. Do you think that plan will work out?

Ricardo

424,140 views • 3 months ago