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Introducing the BVIV-US Index (Volmex Bitcoin ETF Volatility) 🦅🇺🇸 Built on IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) options data, the most liquid regulated Bitcoin options in the United States. Track it today on Volmex Charts, TradingView, Bloomberg Terminal, and LSEG Data & Analytics (formerly Refinitiv). The ticker is $BVUS. Trade...

95,056 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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BITCOIN VS. THE S&P 500 - THE NEXT 10 YEARS There is a lot of talk and crying about how Bitcoin has diminishing returns and it's not worth the volatility. And to that I say: LOL. Since January 1st, 2020: Bitcoin CAGR: 44% Bitcoin Vol: 60% SPY CAGR: 14% SPY Vol: 20% Bitcoin gave you roughly 3x the volatility but slightly more than 3x the compound growth rate. Now lets walk forward a decade, SEVERELY HANDICAPPING Bitcoin but not touching S&P 500. Yup. Let's cut Bitcoin's CAGR and Vol in HALF. New BTC CAGR: 22% New BTC Vol: 30% Now a Monte Carlo simulation of a $10,000 investment in each with 100,000 paths! Median ending value: Bitcoin: $72,827 (7.3x return) SPY: $37,046 (3.7x return) 5th percentile return: Bitcoin: $15,105 SPY: $13,091 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $347,226 SPY: $104,765 The chance of your investment winding up greater than $100k: Bitcoin: 36.8% SPY: 5.8% Let's run it again with 6% inflation eating both of them. Real CAGR after the government takes its cut: Bitcoin: 15.1% SPY: 7.5% Median ending value: Bitcoin: $40,666 (4.1x) SPY: $20,686 (2.1x) 5th percentile: Bitcoin: $8,435 SPY: $7,310 Yes, both of them lose in the left tail. Inflation stays undefeated down there. Choose your poison honestly. 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $193,889 SPY: $58,500 Odds of simply keeping your purchasing power: Bitcoin: 93.1% SPY: 87.5% Odds of ending with more than $100,000 in today's dollars: Bitcoin: 17.2% SPY: 0.6% Nominally that gap was 6x. In real terms it becomes 27x, because $100k sits way out on the S&P's skinny little tail. I handicapped Bitcoin with half the return, half the volatility, and Bitcoin still buys the house while SPY buys the down payment. Bitcoin remains the APEX GROWTH ASSET and the S&P 500 remains the preferred choice for khaki-wearing midwits stuck in a beige office chair from 1994:

Adam Livingston

19,930 просмотров • 13 дней назад

📜In Code We Trust: Crypto #DeFi's Game Changer: The Rise of The world's first #Bitcoin-native decentralized exchange, Orders.Exchange's LP is launched! In the past, DeFi has been susceptible to vulnerabilities like code errors, rug pulls, and potential attacks, raising security concerns in EVM-compatible blockchains. On the other hand, the Bitcoin DeFi landscape has been relatively uncharted territory, with limited options for fully on-chain trading. But that's where steps in, offering a unique approach that distinguishes it from DeFi in the old days. Let's delve into the key differentiators: 1⃣A Smart-contract-like Trading on Bitcoin Native Network: operates natively on the Bitcoin network, eliminating the need for layer-2 solutions or the Lightning Network. This simplifies the process and brings smart-contract-like functionality to Bitcoin. 2⃣AMM VS DIMM introduces the P-LP (PSBT Liquidity Pool), a zero-risk liquidity pool solution. Your assets remain in your account without the need to lock them. Unlike Ethereum's AMM mechanism, employs DIMM (Decentralized Instant Market Maker), eliminating the reliance on a mathematical formula for token prices. This ensures that the number of tokens you provide remains constant during liquidity provision, no more TVL, Slippage, and Impermanent Loss. 3⃣Trust and Openness: is trustless, meaning the platform cannot independently sign and seize your assets at the code level, ensuring a secure and decentralized liquidity pool on the Bitcoin network. It's also open-source and interoperable with other networks with the nostr protocol👉 The future of DeFi is here, and it's happening on the Bitcoin network. Join us as we embark on this journey👇

Rachel.metaid

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