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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Iran built a trap where responding and staying silent both cost Washington power. Political scientist Robert Pape says Tehran designed the pattern deliberately, announced it in advance, and Trump walked into it anyway. He lays out the bind with no exit in it: "He (Trump) can do... show more

Mario Nawfal

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154,280 次观看 • 24 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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IRAN'S OIL WEAPON: TRUMP IS STUCK IN A LOSE-LOSE CATCH-22 University of Chicago strategist Prof. Robert Pape, just mapped the last few days of the Iran fight. He says this is not random tit-for-tat. Iran built a trap. The scoreboard he uses is simple: the daily price of oil. THE OIL SCOREBOARD ➡️ Early in the war, Pape says, oil stayed surprisingly low. ➡️ Trump could still talk the price down, and SPR inventories helped. ➡️ “What’s happened since the midpoint in July is it’s basically straight up.” ➡️ “Who’s controlling that price of oil? Not Trump. And his ability to talk it down is essentially disappeared.” ➡️ That chart, Pape argues, is not just energy. It is power. It is also the price of gas outside his door in Chicago. THE CATCH-22 ➡️ Iran built an offensive pattern that puts Trump on two bad horns. ➡️ Do nothing, and Iran looks like it is gaining power. ➡️ Hit back, and Iran out-escalates him — and he looks like he is losing power anyway. ➡️ “This is a no-win scenario for Trump.” ➡️ Tactical hits can still look like wins. Strategically, Pape says, the United States gets weaker. THE MIDTERM WEAPON ➡️ As oil ticks higher, Pape says Trump’s midterm prospects move the other way. ➡️ He calls that path “tremendous damage” to the presidency — “maybe irrevocable.” ➡️ CNN this morning, he notes, already has national gas prices rising in red states and blue states alike. ➡️ “Trump has lost control of the economy and Iran has gained it.” ➡️ That, in his reading, is the point of the strategy: keep baiting, keep the price climbing, and let November do the rest. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape’s claim is blunt. Iran is not just firing back. It is using oil as a political weapon, and Trump keeps walking into the same lose-lose trap. Watch the pump, not the press conference. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal Robert A. Pape #IranOil #RobertPape #OilPrices #EscalationTrap #Trump #Midterms #Hormuz

IRAN'S OIL WEAPON: TRUMP IS STUCK IN A LOSE-LOSE CATCH-22 University of Chicago strategist Prof. Robert Pape, just mapped the last few days of the Iran fight. He says this is not random tit-for-tat. Iran built a trap. The scoreboard he uses is simple: the daily price of oil. THE OIL SCOREBOARD ➡️ Early in the war, Pape says, oil stayed surprisingly low. ➡️ Trump could still talk the price down, and SPR inventories helped. ➡️ “What’s happened since the midpoint in July is it’s basically straight up.” ➡️ “Who’s controlling that price of oil? Not Trump. And his ability to talk it down is essentially disappeared.” ➡️ That chart, Pape argues, is not just energy. It is power. It is also the price of gas outside his door in Chicago. THE CATCH-22 ➡️ Iran built an offensive pattern that puts Trump on two bad horns. ➡️ Do nothing, and Iran looks like it is gaining power. ➡️ Hit back, and Iran out-escalates him — and he looks like he is losing power anyway. ➡️ “This is a no-win scenario for Trump.” ➡️ Tactical hits can still look like wins. Strategically, Pape says, the United States gets weaker. THE MIDTERM WEAPON ➡️ As oil ticks higher, Pape says Trump’s midterm prospects move the other way. ➡️ He calls that path “tremendous damage” to the presidency — “maybe irrevocable.” ➡️ CNN this morning, he notes, already has national gas prices rising in red states and blue states alike. ➡️ “Trump has lost control of the economy and Iran has gained it.” ➡️ That, in his reading, is the point of the strategy: keep baiting, keep the price climbing, and let November do the rest. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape’s claim is blunt. Iran is not just firing back. It is using oil as a political weapon, and Trump keeps walking into the same lose-lose trap. Watch the pump, not the press conference. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal Robert A. Pape #IranOil #RobertPape #OilPrices #EscalationTrap #Trump #Midterms #Hormuz

Mark

38,926 次观看 • 24 天前

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

86,735 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

29,680 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇮🇷 One fork in the road, and neither path is clean. Political Scientist Robert Pape has modeled this escalation for 21 years, and he says the Trump administration is running out of options fast. "Unless the Trump administration allows Iran to become the fourth center of world power, your government, the UAE, will be toppled, likely within 4 or 5 years." The bombs didn't work. The naval blockade didn't work. What comes next is the question nobody wants to answer. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷 One fork in the road, and neither path is clean. Political Scientist Robert Pape has modeled this escalation for 21 years, and he says the Trump administration is running out of options fast. "Unless the Trump administration allows Iran to become the fourth center of world power, your government, the UAE, will be toppled, likely within 4 or 5 years." The bombs didn't work. The naval blockade didn't work. What comes next is the question nobody wants to answer. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

64,131 次观看 • 5 个月前

Trump Is Losing It - And Everyone Can See It This is what political collapse looks like. A breakdown in real time. Trump is not well and he is not long for power.

Trump Is Losing It - And Everyone Can See It This is what political collapse looks like. A breakdown in real time. Trump is not well and he is not long for power.

ThisBoomerHitsDifferent

36,532 次观看 • 8 个月前

🚨 BREAKING: Prof. Robert Pape confirms the Trump administration started a disastrus war and is trapped in a massive stratgic defeat! He reveals Iran completely reversed the balance of power. Washington is desperately trying to reverse its humiliating loss!

🚨 BREAKING: Prof. Robert Pape confirms the Trump administration started a disastrus war and is trapped in a massive stratgic defeat! He reveals Iran completely reversed the balance of power. Washington is desperately trying to reverse its humiliating loss!

Furkan Gözükara

20,699 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 An Iranian nuclear test in October would wreck the Trump presidency beyond repair. Political scientist Professor Robert Pape sees Tehran holding a card it can play whenever the calendar suits it, with withdrawal from the nuclear treaty carrying nearly the same force: "It's not just your initial goals didn't work. It's look at the complete reversal of American power, American position in the world, and Iran heading to become the oil hegemon." Weeks remain before the midterms and Tehran knows exactly when detonating that news would hurt most, which is a terrible position for any administration to be in. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 An Iranian nuclear test in October would wreck the Trump presidency beyond repair. Political scientist Professor Robert Pape sees Tehran holding a card it can play whenever the calendar suits it, with withdrawal from the nuclear treaty carrying nearly the same force: "It's not just your initial goals didn't work. It's look at the complete reversal of American power, American position in the world, and Iran heading to become the oil hegemon." Weeks remain before the midterms and Tehran knows exactly when detonating that news would hurt most, which is a terrible position for any administration to be in. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

67,908 次观看 • 7 天前

Trump didn’t just lose the war with Iran, he may now be losing the peace deal too. That’s the part of this interview with geopolitical analyst Robert Pape that people need to understand. Because on the surface the MOU looks like Trump finding an off-ramp, calming the markets, stopping the war, and buying himself some political breathing room. But Pape argues the opposite is happening. He says Iran is now in the driver’s seat, and this deal doesn’t weaken Tehran, it gives them time, money, leverage, and a loaded gun pointed at the global economy. His argument is brutal: Iran survived the bombing, proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, saw Gulf states feeling abandoned by Washington, and is now using the negotiations not to make peace, but to accumulate power. According to Pape, the real story is the 60-day window. Because during those 60 days, global oil reserves that are already depleted keep draining, and Iran’s leverage gets stronger every single week. Then, if Israel doesn’t leave Lebanon, if the money doesn’t arrive, if Trump doesn’t make concessions, Iran can come back and squeeze again from an even stronger position. That’s the nightmare scenario. Pape says Israel understands this, which is why the deal is such a catastrophe for them. Before the war, Israel was the rising power. After the war, he argues, the tables have flipped, and Iran is now moving toward regional dominance. That’s why this interview matters. Because if Pape is right, Trump didn’t end the Iran crisis; he bought 60 days before the next squeeze, which could be far worse. Robert A. Pape

Trump didn’t just lose the war with Iran, he may now be losing the peace deal too. That’s the part of this interview with geopolitical analyst Robert Pape that people need to understand. Because on the surface the MOU looks like Trump finding an off-ramp, calming the markets, stopping the war, and buying himself some political breathing room. But Pape argues the opposite is happening. He says Iran is now in the driver’s seat, and this deal doesn’t weaken Tehran, it gives them time, money, leverage, and a loaded gun pointed at the global economy. His argument is brutal: Iran survived the bombing, proved it can close the Strait of Hormuz, saw Gulf states feeling abandoned by Washington, and is now using the negotiations not to make peace, but to accumulate power. According to Pape, the real story is the 60-day window. Because during those 60 days, global oil reserves that are already depleted keep draining, and Iran’s leverage gets stronger every single week. Then, if Israel doesn’t leave Lebanon, if the money doesn’t arrive, if Trump doesn’t make concessions, Iran can come back and squeeze again from an even stronger position. That’s the nightmare scenario. Pape says Israel understands this, which is why the deal is such a catastrophe for them. Before the war, Israel was the rising power. After the war, he argues, the tables have flipped, and Iran is now moving toward regional dominance. That’s why this interview matters. Because if Pape is right, Trump didn’t end the Iran crisis; he bought 60 days before the next squeeze, which could be far worse. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

343,364 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

96,784 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

293,824 次观看 • 18 天前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump walked into Iran believing it would end in three or four days. Max Blumenthal says Netanyahu sold him on a fantasy of decapitation strikes, popular uprisings, and easy spoils. "Trump will take the spoils of Iran. That's what he actually believed." Now the war has no exit, and the goal keeps shifting. That's not an accident. Max Blumenthal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump walked into Iran believing it would end in three or four days. Max Blumenthal says Netanyahu sold him on a fantasy of decapitation strikes, popular uprisings, and easy spoils. "Trump will take the spoils of Iran. That's what he actually believed." Now the war has no exit, and the goal keeps shifting. That's not an accident. Max Blumenthal

Mario Nawfal

94,505 次观看 • 1 个月前

"He [Trump] is losing control... He can cut his losses now, pay a political price, try to stop the war, even though it would be a failure. Or he play for the long run and become Lyndon Johnson in the Vietnam War and face a more disastrous political outcome." - Robert A. Pape

"He [Trump] is losing control... He can cut his losses now, pay a political price, try to stop the war, even though it would be a failure. Or he play for the long run and become Lyndon Johnson in the Vietnam War and face a more disastrous political outcome." - Robert A. Pape

Adam Schwarz

137,769 次观看 • 6 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

306,985 次观看 • 2 个月前

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump blinked every time before, because he knew Iran meant it. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says that pattern breaks now, and what follows is a ladder with no exit built into it: "The Iranians are going to respond as never before. Then it's going to force us to respond even more. And we now find ourselves in the escalation trap yet again." Each side answering the last answer. Nobody gets out clean this time. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump blinked every time before, because he knew Iran meant it. Geopolitics expert Brandon Weichert says that pattern breaks now, and what follows is a ladder with no exit built into it: "The Iranians are going to respond as never before. Then it's going to force us to respond even more. And we now find ourselves in the escalation trap yet again." Each side answering the last answer. Nobody gets out clean this time. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

104,725 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Iran is entering its period of maximum leverage, and a cornered Israel may respond with assassination. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "As Israel feels cornered. It is a decline. It doesn't have many options and they start to essentially panic." The tables have flipped, and Israel has no good moves left. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Iran is entering its period of maximum leverage, and a cornered Israel may respond with assassination. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "As Israel feels cornered. It is a decline. It doesn't have many options and they start to essentially panic." The tables have flipped, and Israel has no good moves left. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

55,377 次观看 • 3 个月前

⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable. 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

⭕️ University of Chicago Political Scientist Robert Pape: “Iran Is Beating America… Trump Is A Wounded Animal” Professor Robert Pape, one of the country’s leading scholars on military escalation, appeared on Breaking Points to assess the state of the war. Here’s what he said: 🔹 On who’s in control: “America’s not winning. Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play. They are more in control as each day passes. And since the first hour of the bombing, America has been less in control and has less cards to play.” 🔹 On why talks keep failing: Pape argues the ceasefire breakdown is not a miscommunication problem — it’s a zero-sum problem. Iran cannot both control and not control the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot both have enriched uranium and not have it. “One side has to give up essentially. And what you’re seeing is both sides rather than give up prefer to escalate.” 🔹 On what Iran wants: Pape believes Iran has three goals — control of the Strait, nuclear weapons within roughly a year or two, and torpedoing Trump’s presidency. He claims Iran’s strategy is to string this out at least until November — keeping the economic pressure on and the Strait closed long enough to make Trump’s presidency unrecoverable. 🔹 On Iran denying Trump a way out: Pape argues Trump is desperately seeking a symbolic concession from Iran — any gesture that lets him declare victory and exit. Iran isn’t giving it to him. Instead, every time Trump signals a win, Iran responds with a fresh move like seizing ships, parading missiles. Pape argues this is deliberate: Iran knows that every U.S. victory claim it undercuts pushes Trump further into a trap, and over time gives Tehran greater leverage in negotiations and in the region. 🔹 On what Iran learned: “They learned something in the last eight weeks they did not know before — which is they can beat America. Not just survive. They can actually beat America. And they’re not just beating Donald Trump. Nobody in America is coming up with a brilliant plan.” 🔹 On the ship seizures today: Professor Pape predicted “demonstration attacks” on his Substack hours before Iran seized the vessels Wednesday morning. “What they’re doing is moving up a standard rung of escalation. This is not going to be over anytime soon.“ Ryan Grim | Emily Jashinsky | Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

42,990 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The country Trump bombed is now collecting a billion dollars a week while dictating the terms. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "The people who will determine this are the shippers themselves and what they're saying is that they demand a clearer statement from Iran that their security will be guaranteed by Iran, not by the United States." Iran wants $12 billion up front, another $12 billion at 60 days, and a billion every week in between. Trump is negotiating against himself. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The country Trump bombed is now collecting a billion dollars a week while dictating the terms. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "The people who will determine this are the shippers themselves and what they're saying is that they demand a clearer statement from Iran that their security will be guaranteed by Iran, not by the United States." Iran wants $12 billion up front, another $12 billion at 60 days, and a billion every week in between. Trump is negotiating against himself. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

64,658 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

71,275 次观看 • 1 个月前

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Professor Robert Pape says Trump has lost control of the Iran war and is now being dragged toward something almost nobody expected: U.S. troops seizing Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz. He thinks the Battle of Hormuz has begun, and his argument is that Trump is no longer choosing whether to escalate; the war itself is beginning to make those choices for him. For months, Prof. Pape has warned about what he calls the "escalation trap." America bombs Iran, they refuse to surrender, Washington increases the pressure, the bombing creates more anger and nationalism inside Iran, they retaliate, and America escalates again. Prof. Pape thinks America may be preparing for stage three of the escalation trap: Ground operations. Not an invasion of Tehran, but a limited seizure of strategic Iranian territory along the Strait of Hormuz to physically weaken Tehran's ability to control shipping. He says Iranian nationalism is already exploding after the killing of the Supreme Leader, members of his family, senior officials, and thousands of Iranians. Calls for revenge are growing that could inspire attacks against Americans around the world. Then imagine one of those attacks succeeds. Americans are killed, U.S. nationalism surges, and suddenly walking away from Iran isn't seen as ending a stupid war; it's seen as dishonouring dead Americans. That's why he doesn't think Trump can simply wake up tomorrow and decide he's had enough. He faces a political crisis if his own base decides Iran humiliated him. Trump may think he's escalating to reverse a defeat, but Prof. Pape thinks every escalation is removing another exit. And America may now be moving toward putting troops on Iranian soil in a war that neither Trump nor Iran will soon have the political power to stop. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

469,588 次观看 • 2 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

108,692 次观看 • 5 个月前