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Iran has burned through a massive munitions load, launching more than 800 ballistic missiles and over 2K drones. Yet, IRGC has been unable to degrade US or Israeli capability even marginally. It had its shot and it blew it by trying to pursue its version of the regional shock...

20,803 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Why has Iran’s response been so lacklustre, managing to fire fewer than 100 missiles, of which only seven made it through the air defence net? The Israeli Air Force currently dominates Iran’s airspace—not just with stealth jets, but also with noisy drones, videos of which are now emerging as they circle over Tabriz, deep inside Iran. And there’s nothing Iran can do about it. Israel also clearly has excellent intelligence on missile storage sites. However, Iran is vast, and Israel can’t be everywhere at once. Some of Iran’s systems are mobile and can be launched quickly—so inevitably, some will get through. But as we’ve seen with Hezbollah, every launch burns a site and reveals more intelligence. So as Iran "uses it," it also "loses it." Recall that Iran’s primary means of deterring an Israeli attack was never its stockpile of a few thousand ballistic missiles. It was its proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other groups in Syria and Iraq. These were meant to attack Israel en masse in the event of an Israeli strike, creating a deterrent and allowing the IRGC to continue developing its doomsday weapons. But those proxies are now severely depleted. They’ve been rendered largely harmless. All Iran has left is its missile arsenal. However, as demonstrated in Iran’s two 2024 attacks, these missiles are highly inaccurate, with a circular error probable (CEP) of around 900 meters. That means half will land within 900 meters of their target—and half outside. Hitting any particular static target reliably requires launching hundreds of missiles. This makes them practically useless against military targets—which is why Iran has instead aimed them at cities, where even a miss can cause destruction. The missiles are also vulnerable to interception by multiple layers of Israeli and U.S. air defenses. That’s why they must be fired in large volleys rather than piecemeal. If launched one by one, over 90% will be intercepted. Combined with their inaccuracy, this makes them embarrassingly ineffective, as the Houthis have recently demonstrated. Launching large volleys, however, requires intact command-and-control systems—which have been struck—and the ability to move launch systems freely without hostile jets overhead. Last time, it took Iran three days to prepare a full-scale salvo. That kind of preparation is nearly impossible under an enemy’s air umbrella and with real-time intelligence coverage. They managed to assemble a volley of under 100 missiles—a quarter of what they launched in previous strikes—and it clearly wasn’t enough to break through air defenses. Only seven got through, destroying a few structures and injuring 12 people. Do the math: even if Iran has enough munitions for 20 more such volleys (as some experts suggest), the total damage it can inflict is not large. Still, Iran may have tricks left up its sleeve—such as submarine-launched missiles seen in recent footage—and could resort to terror attacks against soft Israeli or Jewish targets in the West. To Jews in the West, I’d say this: be careful. Iran is now a very dangerous, cornered bear. It has operatives in your countries, and it may not hesitate to use them. Stay vigilant.

Saul Sadka

398,976 просмотров • 1 год назад