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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is now saying openly that it could strike American interests first Gharibabadi's framing is that the country's existence is at stake, so waiting to be attacked before defending itself makes no sense, and preemptive action against American interests sits inside Iranian policy. Read that against yesterday's Axios...

48,866 次观看 • 3 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's paused the bombing and replaced it with economic warfare, but Iran's response is that Washington no longer gets to decide when the shooting starts again. In a major escalation, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi says Tehran now considers pre-emptive strikes against U.S interests a legitimate option if it believes its national survival is threatened. His argument is remarkably direct: Why should Iran always wait for America to attack first? If Tehran believes another attack is coming, or that American pressure has become existential, Gharibabadi says Iran can act first. And the timing matters. Rubio is reportedly telling regional counterparts that Washington does not currently intend to launch new strikes on Iran, with Trump's pressure instead running through the naval blockade and Operation Economic Outcast. Military action remains available if Iran attacks first. That's precisely what makes Iran's new position so dangerous. Trump appears to believe he can freeze the military conflict while slowly tightening the economic noose around Tehran. But if the sanctions begin seriously biting, or Tehran concludes Washington is preparing another attack, it could choose to strike American interests first. And after the last war, Iran is considerably less intimidated by that prospect. Then there's Trump's other problem: China. Operation Economic Outcast only works if the countries keeping Iran economically connected can be pressured into compliance. But if Beijing refuses, Trump faces an ugly choice: tolerate a huge hole in the sanctions regime or confront China and risk retaliation involving rare earth minerals that are critical to U.S weapons production. Trump may have decided the military war is paused. Iran is warning him that decision is no longer his alone. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

314,843 次观看 • 3 天前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 What happens when economic pressure is supposed to prevent escalation, but instead gives Iran an incentive to escalate? That is the dilemma former U.S. diplomat Aaron David Miller sees developing around Iran. Miller argues that if Trump’s sanctions begin seriously damaging Iran’s economy, Tehran may decide that if it is going to suffer anyway, it might as well make the United States pay a price too. That could mean attacks on Gulf states, energy infrastructure and American interests across the region. And the bigger problem is that neither side appears willing to accept the other's terms. Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Iran wants a new regional order that prevents another American military campaign against it. Miller's blunt assessment: “I don't see the exit ramp.” There may still be one. Miller suggests allowing the Gulf states to negotiate their own arrangements with Tehran, including a compromise over Hormuz, rather than forcing Washington itself to make the concessions. But that would require Trump to accept something he has so far resisted: that America cannot permanently police the entire region. And there is a much bigger question hanging over all of this. If Russia cannot subdue Ukraine, and the U.S. cannot subdue Iran, what does China conclude about the limits of American power? Miller wonders whether watching these conflicts could make Xi more cautious over Taiwan, or convince him that greater powers can attack smaller ones and still fail to achieve their objectives. The Middle East may therefore be approaching a choice between a negotiated regional order and another round of escalation. And right now, nobody seems particularly sure where the exit ramp is. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

285,322 次观看 • 6 天前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump threatened to unleash the “gates of hell” against Iran, then he backed away, which in Washington may have been seen as restraint. According to Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar, Tehran interpreted it very differently. They saw it as proof that Iran’s deterrence had worked, America’s military options were narrowing, and that the longer Iran holds out, the more leverage it gains. Pepe says that transformed Iran’s objectives. Tehran is no longer thinking only about surviving the war, lifting sanctions or securing control over the Strait of Hormuz. According to his sources, forcing the U.S to retreat from West Asia has now become a central strategic goal. Iran began this conflict trying to prevent America from imposing its will. Pepe believes it now sees an opportunity to dismantle the military system that allowed Washington to threaten it in the first place. And Tehran reportedly believes it has found the mechanism. He says Iran has replaced its previous proportional retaliation policy with a new warning: Strike one Iranian energy target, and Iran will strike ten targets across America’s regional network. The message to Gulf governments is brutal. If they help Trump attack Iran, their refineries, pipelines and export facilities will pay the price. Pepe says that threat is one reason regional leaders pushed Trump to stand down. Saudi Arabia, in particular, understands that another major escalation could devastate the infrastructure it depends on to export oil. For decades, American bases were supposed to protect Gulf allies from Iran, but now those bases are putting the countries hosting them at risk. Pepe Escobar

Mario Nawfal

286,832 次观看 • 26 天前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has tried military force and economic strangulation against Iran; now Tehran has concluded that pressure simply does not work Iran has taken enormous punishment. Its economy is reeling, inflation is brutal, and its military has absorbed repeated strikes. But six months into the war, the regime is still standing, and crucially, Iran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis believes that has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. Washington has moved from military force to its new “Economic D-Day,” but the regional cooperation needed to make that strategy truly devastating isn't materialising. Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Qatar still have powerful incentives to trade with Iran. Oman is negotiating with Tehran. Pakistan and Qatar are talking to the Iranians. These countries don't want another regional war or a permanently closed Persian Gulf, and Iran knows it. Joshua says Tehran increasingly believes America has already played its strongest cards, which makes surrender even less attractive. Iranian leaders now believe that if they cave to Trump's demands, America and Israel will simply return once Iran has recovered and hit it again. In Joshua's words, Iran fears becoming another Gaza, Lebanon or Syria; periodically attacked to keep it permanently weak. So Tehran has reached the opposite conclusion: It has to make resisting Iran more painful than living with it. Tehran may finally have learned the difference between America having the power to hurt it, and having the power to make it surrender. Joshua Landis Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

215,721 次观看 • 1 天前