Iran, Israel, and Schrödinger’s nuke.

Doing a deeper dive on this for my mailing list members, join here:

This tweet right here explains Iran's nuclear strategy in a nutshell. They won't make the bomb because they consider it haram (against Islam), unless they deem it necessary to preserve their regime.

Dude. Iran's enrichment facility is in a hardened bunker 300ft underground. It's not for civilian purposes.

I can’t understand why no one ever factors in Islamist ideology and the glorification of martyrdom as being a serious factor in the danger of Iran having a nuke. In my mind, this is huge. Their history of suicide bombing the West, and their willingness to sacrifice civilian populations directly shows the greater danger of them having a bomb over other nations. Even if Israel is overly militant, or whatever the haters say, they are not ideologically suicidal.

I have taken a similar line, Kaizen, in that I believe the situation is dire, but I also see the unintended consequences of war. I am astonished at those on both sides here who are so extreme. On the one side, you have isolationists who would never consider any intervention in a situation that could prove to have dire consequences, and on the other side, there are people whose only desire in life is to see bloodshed and war play out on television. As with so many things, the truth is not at the farthest end on either side of the debate. I am also disheartened at the hatred and antisemitism which has been laid bare recently. It remains a view that is far from mainstream, but has gotten more play than it should, and these hateful voices cannot be part of meaningful discussion about America’s future.

Well said. Need more intellectual humility. This is the most complex issue I’ve tried to analyze. Very challenging video to make.

That's a great way of putting it. There have been claims of Iran getting a nuke for decades.

1.) Keep advocating for Peace negotiations 2.) Make it inarguable that the USA wants peace, delay. (Yes, this will cost lives) 3.) If Iran clearly does not want to negotiate after MANY more attempts, THEN take stronger action, when the cultural-media-moral-war has been won.

A reasonable deal is actually very simple to make. The problem is saving faces on both sides. 1. Iran has been under tough sanctions for 13 years, so they cant just sell zero enrichment to the public after so much price they paid. 2. Trump cant agree to 3.6% enrichment (even with strict limits) because that would be similar to JCPOA which he exited himself. There is almost no zone of possible agreement.

1. 60% enriched uranium is sufficient to build a bomb without further enrichment. It will just be less efficient but still a big explosion. Thus, Iran may already have a bomb or could literally put one together in a day or so. 2. The first atomic bomb was developed by the Manhattan project developing all required science and engineering from scratch but still took less than 3 years until the first bomb exploded. ALL countries, like Iran, which have uranium mines are always within a few years of developing a fission bomb if they so desire. 3. Without regime change, I believe we will be in this same position every few years as the Iranian regime will simply reconstitute their nuclear program over and over again.

Interesting. What do you think America should do?