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🇮🇷 Iran only ever hits back, never first, and still ends up the one condemned. Professor Behrooz Ghamari-Tabrizi lays out the trap Tehran can't seem to escape. Even after being bombed, Iran's retaliation on Gulf bases got it hauled before the UN, while the original strikes that started the... show more

Mario Nawfal

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 The U.S. just bombed Iran again, hitting the same coastal targets, and Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar's read is that this isn't retaliation, it's preparation... His tactical eye caught what the headlines miss. The strikes keep landing in one specific zone, the gateway from the Gulf of Oman into the strait, near Sirik, Qeshm, Bandar Kong. Command and control, radar, mine-layer capability, the old Qeshm airfield. To him that target pattern reads like a preplanned package setting conditions for a larger operation, not a one-off response. His framing of the asymmetry was sharp: when the US disables a ship's engine room with a drone, Western media calls it a "precision strike enforcing freedom of navigation." When Iran does the identical thing to that Singaporean tanker, it's "Iran attacks vessel." Same act, opposite headline. And the ship, he notes, was traveling outside Iran's communicated lane. What he keeps circling back to is why. Iran's resolve on Hormuz is unbreakable, so these strikes won't change it. His conclusion: Washington has quietly accepted it can't get Israel out of Lebanon, so it's trying to claw back Iran's leverage instead, degrading the one capability that gives Tehran its trump card.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The U.S. just bombed Iran again, hitting the same coastal targets, and Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar's read is that this isn't retaliation, it's preparation... His tactical eye caught what the headlines miss. The strikes keep landing in one specific zone, the gateway from the Gulf of Oman into the strait, near Sirik, Qeshm, Bandar Kong. Command and control, radar, mine-layer capability, the old Qeshm airfield. To him that target pattern reads like a preplanned package setting conditions for a larger operation, not a one-off response. His framing of the asymmetry was sharp: when the US disables a ship's engine room with a drone, Western media calls it a "precision strike enforcing freedom of navigation." When Iran does the identical thing to that Singaporean tanker, it's "Iran attacks vessel." Same act, opposite headline. And the ship, he notes, was traveling outside Iran's communicated lane. What he keeps circling back to is why. Iran's resolve on Hormuz is unbreakable, so these strikes won't change it. His conclusion: Washington has quietly accepted it can't get Israel out of Lebanon, so it's trying to claw back Iran's leverage instead, degrading the one capability that gives Tehran its trump card.

Mario Nawfal

494,007 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The CIA told the White House Iran has 3 to 4 months before economic collapse, and that timeline is now driving every decision. Analyst Alex Christoforou lays out why that bet could blow up in Trump's face. "What do the airstrikes accomplish? Nothing. What does the retaliation of Iran accomplish? A lot." If oil spikes before Iran folds, the clock runs out on Trump, not Tehran. Alex Christoforou

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The CIA told the White House Iran has 3 to 4 months before economic collapse, and that timeline is now driving every decision. Analyst Alex Christoforou lays out why that bet could blow up in Trump's face. "What do the airstrikes accomplish? Nothing. What does the retaliation of Iran accomplish? A lot." If oil spikes before Iran folds, the clock runs out on Trump, not Tehran. Alex Christoforou

Mario Nawfal

70,142 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇮🇷 Every strike meant to cripple Iran's arsenal missed the thing that matters most. Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi explains why Tehran believes time is now on its side. "Militarily speaking, the time is on the side of the Iranians and they know that." If the U.S. pushes harder, Iran still has the weapons to push back. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

🇮🇷 Every strike meant to cripple Iran's arsenal missed the thing that matters most. Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi explains why Tehran believes time is now on its side. "Militarily speaking, the time is on the side of the Iranians and they know that." If the U.S. pushes harder, Iran still has the weapons to push back. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

82,534 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

🇮🇷 Kuwait and Bahrain are next on Iran's target list, and the logic is brutally simple. Fmr. CIA intel analyst Larry Johnson lays out Tehran's retaliation math. The US ignored Iran's warning by striking bridges, so Iran now targets Gulf infrastructure in the countries whose bases launch those strikes. Qatar and Saudi Arabia stay untouched for now, he says, because no missiles are allegedly flying from their soil. The list follows the launches. And Iran's end goal has never changed: make every US base in the Persian Gulf uninhabitable, knowing there are no backup locations to move to. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

🇮🇷 Kuwait and Bahrain are next on Iran's target list, and the logic is brutally simple. Fmr. CIA intel analyst Larry Johnson lays out Tehran's retaliation math. The US ignored Iran's warning by striking bridges, so Iran now targets Gulf infrastructure in the countries whose bases launch those strikes. Qatar and Saudi Arabia stay untouched for now, he says, because no missiles are allegedly flying from their soil. The list follows the launches. And Iran's end goal has never changed: make every US base in the Persian Gulf uninhabitable, knowing there are no backup locations to move to. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

49,984 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 🇮🇷IRAN'S ECONOMIC DESPERATION: OIL PRICES VS. GDP Matt Tardio breaks down how Iran's entire annual GDP is only half of the U.S. military budget. Despite high oil prices, the regime cannot sustain the massive costs of the ongoing conflict. Tardio notes that while Iran suffers, its political capital is quickly evaporating on the world stage. The economic squeeze is a strategic necessity to force a change in Tehran. Matt Tardio

🚨 🇮🇷IRAN'S ECONOMIC DESPERATION: OIL PRICES VS. GDP Matt Tardio breaks down how Iran's entire annual GDP is only half of the U.S. military budget. Despite high oil prices, the regime cannot sustain the massive costs of the ongoing conflict. Tardio notes that while Iran suffers, its political capital is quickly evaporating on the world stage. The economic squeeze is a strategic necessity to force a change in Tehran. Matt Tardio

Mario Nawfal

25,062 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says the Islamabad deal with Washington is now in full crisis mode. FM spokesman Esmail Baghaei accused the U.S. of mutilating the 14-point memorandum, insisting Tehran has never been the side that breaks its word. He pointed to paragraph 5, the 60-day window for Iran's commitments on the Strait of Hormuz, and said the Americans blocked it from ever being implemented in the first place. Writer: Julie

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says the Islamabad deal with Washington is now in full crisis mode. FM spokesman Esmail Baghaei accused the U.S. of mutilating the 14-point memorandum, insisting Tehran has never been the side that breaks its word. He pointed to paragraph 5, the 60-day window for Iran's commitments on the Strait of Hormuz, and said the Americans blocked it from ever being implemented in the first place. Writer: Julie

Mario Nawfal

66,979 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be making the biggest strategic miscalculation of the war. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert believes the White House is assuming one overwhelming show of force will push Iran back to the negotiating table. He thinks the opposite will happen. According to reports discussed in the interview, Washington is weighing a large-scale campaign targeting not only military sites, but potentially Iran's energy infrastructure as well. Brandon believes the logic is simple. Hit Iran hard enough, demonstrate overwhelming American power, then negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't think Tehran sees it that way. His argument is that Washington is treating Iran like a conventional state that responds primarily to military pressure. Iran, he says, defines legitimacy through resistance. The harder it's hit, the harder it becomes politically for Tehran to compromise. That's why Brandon believes a major U.S. campaign wouldn't be the final round. It would simply be the start of the next one. The U.S. may be able to destroy what it can find. But it can never be certain it found everything. Meanwhile, Iran only needs to keep enough capability intact to continue imposing costs. Brandon believes that asymmetry favors Tehran over time. If Iran refuses to bend, what started as escalation could well become an open-ended war neither side knows how to end. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be making the biggest strategic miscalculation of the war. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert believes the White House is assuming one overwhelming show of force will push Iran back to the negotiating table. He thinks the opposite will happen. According to reports discussed in the interview, Washington is weighing a large-scale campaign targeting not only military sites, but potentially Iran's energy infrastructure as well. Brandon believes the logic is simple. Hit Iran hard enough, demonstrate overwhelming American power, then negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't think Tehran sees it that way. His argument is that Washington is treating Iran like a conventional state that responds primarily to military pressure. Iran, he says, defines legitimacy through resistance. The harder it's hit, the harder it becomes politically for Tehran to compromise. That's why Brandon believes a major U.S. campaign wouldn't be the final round. It would simply be the start of the next one. The U.S. may be able to destroy what it can find. But it can never be certain it found everything. Meanwhile, Iran only needs to keep enough capability intact to continue imposing costs. Brandon believes that asymmetry favors Tehran over time. If Iran refuses to bend, what started as escalation could well become an open-ended war neither side knows how to end. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

377,798 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump may have struck his "great settlement" with the wrong half of Iran's government. Geopolitics analyst Michael Hilliard points at the gap everyone is glossing over. Trump announced a breakthrough while Iran's moderates and hardliners publicly contradict each other on whether any text was even approved. "It's perfectly plausible that he was negotiating with someone from the wrong part of the government." And Tehran is in no rush to clear it up, because Iran only has to outlast the midterms. Michael Hilliard

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump may have struck his "great settlement" with the wrong half of Iran's government. Geopolitics analyst Michael Hilliard points at the gap everyone is glossing over. Trump announced a breakthrough while Iran's moderates and hardliners publicly contradict each other on whether any text was even approved. "It's perfectly plausible that he was negotiating with someone from the wrong part of the government." And Tehran is in no rush to clear it up, because Iran only has to outlast the midterms. Michael Hilliard

Mario Nawfal

66,937 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Iran just canceled peace talks because Israel kept bombing Lebanon while the ink was still drying on the MOU I sat down with Professor Foad Izadi from Tehran University and he didn't sugarcoat a single thing Khamenei's statement on the deal, the one everyone's been debating, his read is that the leader didn't want this agreement and the president had to personally guarantee it would protect Iranian interests Iran's position is very simple: ceasefire in Lebanon first, then negotiations, not the other way around The Strait of Hormuz stays closed as leverage, and the professor thinks opening it before seeing real action was a mistake Trump justified Iran's ballistic missile program, Israel Hayom called him a traitor, and the professor still doesn't trust any of it His reasoning: the US left the 2015 deal, Congress is already working with Netanyahu to kill this one, and Trump tweeted about not giving Iran a dime 5 hours after signing His odds on another war between the U.S. and Iran before Trump's term ends: 55 to 65% Is the MOU a genuine reset or just America buying time before round 3? فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

Iran just canceled peace talks because Israel kept bombing Lebanon while the ink was still drying on the MOU I sat down with Professor Foad Izadi from Tehran University and he didn't sugarcoat a single thing Khamenei's statement on the deal, the one everyone's been debating, his read is that the leader didn't want this agreement and the president had to personally guarantee it would protect Iranian interests Iran's position is very simple: ceasefire in Lebanon first, then negotiations, not the other way around The Strait of Hormuz stays closed as leverage, and the professor thinks opening it before seeing real action was a mistake Trump justified Iran's ballistic missile program, Israel Hayom called him a traitor, and the professor still doesn't trust any of it His reasoning: the US left the 2015 deal, Congress is already working with Netanyahu to kill this one, and Trump tweeted about not giving Iran a dime 5 hours after signing His odds on another war between the U.S. and Iran before Trump's term ends: 55 to 65% Is the MOU a genuine reset or just America buying time before round 3? فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

Mario Nawfal

261,119 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Asked directly if he still plans to seize Kharg Island, Trump: "I can't say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish." The non-answer is the strategy. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, so leaving the threat alive and undated keeps Tehran guessing while Trump decides whether the island is worth taking. It's the same madman ambiguity that ran the whole war, "I may do it, I may not," applied to the crown jewel of Iran's economy. What he's really protecting is the leverage of not knowing. The moment he confirms or rules out taking Kharg, Iran can plan around it. Source: Tabz / Writer: Daniel

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Asked directly if he still plans to seize Kharg Island, Trump: "I can't say that to you because if I did, it would be foolish." The non-answer is the strategy. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, so leaving the threat alive and undated keeps Tehran guessing while Trump decides whether the island is worth taking. It's the same madman ambiguity that ran the whole war, "I may do it, I may not," applied to the crown jewel of Iran's economy. What he's really protecting is the leverage of not knowing. The moment he confirms or rules out taking Kharg, Iran can plan around it. Source: Tabz / Writer: Daniel

Mario Nawfal

64,565 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump claimed Iran begged for a meeting. Iran says it never happened. Fmr. CIA analyst Larry Johnson doesn't mince words about Trump's latest post announcing that Iran requested talks in Doha: "That's a lie. Iran hasn't requested anything. He's just making that up." And Tehran backed that up the same day, stressing it has no scheduled technical talks with the United States. An Iranian delegation is heading to Doha, but only to monitor whether Washington actually implements the MOU it already signed, the frozen funds, the lifted sanctions. On negotiations with Whitkoff and Kushner, Iran's position is blunt: not us. Johnson's read on why it matters? The MOU's paragraph 5 hands Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz outright, no mention of Oman, the Gulf states, or America. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump claimed Iran begged for a meeting. Iran says it never happened. Fmr. CIA analyst Larry Johnson doesn't mince words about Trump's latest post announcing that Iran requested talks in Doha: "That's a lie. Iran hasn't requested anything. He's just making that up." And Tehran backed that up the same day, stressing it has no scheduled technical talks with the United States. An Iranian delegation is heading to Doha, but only to monitor whether Washington actually implements the MOU it already signed, the frozen funds, the lifted sanctions. On negotiations with Whitkoff and Kushner, Iran's position is blunt: not us. Johnson's read on why it matters? The MOU's paragraph 5 hands Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz outright, no mention of Oman, the Gulf states, or America. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

69,121 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. has struck Iran again. And Glenn Diesen thinks Washington may have just solved one of Tehran’s biggest problems for it. Iran had been debating whether to strike first in the next round of fighting, but doing so risked making Tehran look like the aggressor. Now it doesn't have to. After U.S. strikes on Larak Island, Iran can retaliate while arguing that Washington restarted the shooting war. Diesen says the stranger part is that America's military position hasn't meaningfully improved since the last round. U.S. interceptor stocks remain under pressure, while Iran appears better able to replenish its missiles and drones and improved the power and accuracy of its strikes as the fighting progressed. So what exactly has changed? His answer: perhaps very little. Washington can't win the war on acceptable terms, can't accept Iran's peace demands, and can't comfortably freeze the conflict while Tehran strengthens relations with its neighbors and maintains control over Hormuz. That leaves America reaching for escalation without a convincing endgame. And Diesen argues the latest strike may strengthen Iranian voices calling for a much more dangerous doctrine: Stop allowing Washington to decide when wars start and stop. If the U.S. attacks Iran, it may no longer get to decide when the shooting ends. Glenn Diesen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. has struck Iran again. And Glenn Diesen thinks Washington may have just solved one of Tehran’s biggest problems for it. Iran had been debating whether to strike first in the next round of fighting, but doing so risked making Tehran look like the aggressor. Now it doesn't have to. After U.S. strikes on Larak Island, Iran can retaliate while arguing that Washington restarted the shooting war. Diesen says the stranger part is that America's military position hasn't meaningfully improved since the last round. U.S. interceptor stocks remain under pressure, while Iran appears better able to replenish its missiles and drones and improved the power and accuracy of its strikes as the fighting progressed. So what exactly has changed? His answer: perhaps very little. Washington can't win the war on acceptable terms, can't accept Iran's peace demands, and can't comfortably freeze the conflict while Tehran strengthens relations with its neighbors and maintains control over Hormuz. That leaves America reaching for escalation without a convincing endgame. And Diesen argues the latest strike may strengthen Iranian voices calling for a much more dangerous doctrine: Stop allowing Washington to decide when wars start and stop. If the U.S. attacks Iran, it may no longer get to decide when the shooting ends. Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

321,675 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war has turned from a fight about Tehran's nuclear program into a battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is trying to prove it can break Iran's grip on shipping through the Strait, while Tehran is just as determined to prove that it can't. And that's created an extraordinary cycle, with both sides threatening to make the next round even bigger. The most worrying change, though, is Iran's calculation. Earlier in the conflict, Tehran appeared determined to avoid giving Washington an excuse to escalate. Now, parts of the Iranian leadership may no longer fear being struck at all. A limited U.S attack gives Iran justification to hit back harder while forcing America to burn through more munitions and expensive air defenses. It's as if Tehran WANTS Trump to strike them. And Washington has its own version of the same trap: backing down risks looking like Iran forced America out of one of the world's most strategically important waterways. So both sides increasingly have reasons to believe the next escalation improves their position, yet neither appears capable of delivering the decisive blow that actually ends this. That's what makes Hormuz so dangerous now: the question isn't who wants a full-scale war. It's whether either side still believes it can afford to be the first one to stop. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war has turned from a fight about Tehran's nuclear program into a battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is trying to prove it can break Iran's grip on shipping through the Strait, while Tehran is just as determined to prove that it can't. And that's created an extraordinary cycle, with both sides threatening to make the next round even bigger. The most worrying change, though, is Iran's calculation. Earlier in the conflict, Tehran appeared determined to avoid giving Washington an excuse to escalate. Now, parts of the Iranian leadership may no longer fear being struck at all. A limited U.S attack gives Iran justification to hit back harder while forcing America to burn through more munitions and expensive air defenses. It's as if Tehran WANTS Trump to strike them. And Washington has its own version of the same trap: backing down risks looking like Iran forced America out of one of the world's most strategically important waterways. So both sides increasingly have reasons to believe the next escalation improves their position, yet neither appears capable of delivering the decisive blow that actually ends this. That's what makes Hormuz so dangerous now: the question isn't who wants a full-scale war. It's whether either side still believes it can afford to be the first one to stop. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

299,013 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Squeeze Iran hard enough and it takes Gulf energy down long before its own economy breaks. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's the trap in the pressure campaign, because Tehran has the means to inflict serious pain on the region's infrastructure well before any collapse arrives at home: "America at this point can't even surrender." Washington has lost the initiative in a war it started, and the people running it still talk like the clock belongs to them. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Squeeze Iran hard enough and it takes Gulf energy down long before its own economy breaks. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's the trap in the pressure campaign, because Tehran has the means to inflict serious pain on the region's infrastructure well before any collapse arrives at home: "America at this point can't even surrender." Washington has lost the initiative in a war it started, and the people running it still talk like the clock belongs to them. Alan Eyre

Mario Nawfal

85,383 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

Mario Nawfal

31,879 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇮🇷 Inside Iran, a debate is growing over the country's strongest card: squeeze the strait harder, or ease up before the world builds a way around it Behrooz Ghamari-Tabrizi described voices in Tehran warning against overplaying Hormuz. Push the fees and seizures too far, they argue, and the Gulf accelerates pipelines and alternate routes until the one winning card loses its value. Others answer: the alternatives get built either way, so squeeze while the dependence lasts. His counter cut deeper, what's left for Iran the day after that card expires? On the escalation, his read was pointed. The funeral shattered the war's founding assumption, that Iranians would greet intervention as liberation, and even Trump admitted surprise at the crowds. Then, within 24 hours, strikes changed the subject. He doesn't think that sequence is coincidence. He also explained the map of Iran's responses. Bahrain and Kuwait absorb the retaliation while the UAE goes untouched, and the reason is simple: an estimated half a TRILLION dollars of Iranian investment sits in the Emirates. Some targets cost too much to hit. The gesture that stuck with me: carrying the body through Najaf and Karbala, where the Iraqi turnout stunned even him. The IRGC said today new fronts open if this continues. That procession route may have been the preview.

🇮🇷 Inside Iran, a debate is growing over the country's strongest card: squeeze the strait harder, or ease up before the world builds a way around it Behrooz Ghamari-Tabrizi described voices in Tehran warning against overplaying Hormuz. Push the fees and seizures too far, they argue, and the Gulf accelerates pipelines and alternate routes until the one winning card loses its value. Others answer: the alternatives get built either way, so squeeze while the dependence lasts. His counter cut deeper, what's left for Iran the day after that card expires? On the escalation, his read was pointed. The funeral shattered the war's founding assumption, that Iranians would greet intervention as liberation, and even Trump admitted surprise at the crowds. Then, within 24 hours, strikes changed the subject. He doesn't think that sequence is coincidence. He also explained the map of Iran's responses. Bahrain and Kuwait absorb the retaliation while the UAE goes untouched, and the reason is simple: an estimated half a TRILLION dollars of Iranian investment sits in the Emirates. Some targets cost too much to hit. The gesture that stuck with me: carrying the body through Najaf and Karbala, where the Iraqi turnout stunned even him. The IRGC said today new fronts open if this continues. That procession route may have been the preview.

Mario Nawfal

254,983 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says the U.S is going to “hit Iran hard,” while Tehran is warning that from now on, every American attack will be met with a response “dozens of times greater.” That's an extremely dangerous change in the rules of this war. The latest U.S strike was deliberately limited: American forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that CENTCOM says were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran didn't respond proportionally; it launched a much larger barrage of missiles and drones toward U.S positions in the region. And that's the part that matters. Earlier in the war, Iran largely calibrated its responses because it still believed there was a deal to be made with Washington. That calculation appears to be disappearing, because Tehran believes America no longer possesses the escalation dominance it had at the beginning of the war. And Iran is now willing to prove it by deliberately responding harder than it gets hit, meaning Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. If he doesn't respond after publicly promising to “hit them hard,” Tehran can portray it as proof that American threats have lost their force. But if he does hit Iran hard, Tehran is explicitly threatening to escalate even more, and warning that no target in the region is beyond its reach. The most dangerous assumption Trump could make now is that the U.S still gets to decide where the escalation ends. Iran's telling him it has a say in that. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says the U.S is going to “hit Iran hard,” while Tehran is warning that from now on, every American attack will be met with a response “dozens of times greater.” That's an extremely dangerous change in the rules of this war. The latest U.S strike was deliberately limited: American forces hit rocket launchers on Larak Island that CENTCOM says were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran didn't respond proportionally; it launched a much larger barrage of missiles and drones toward U.S positions in the region. And that's the part that matters. Earlier in the war, Iran largely calibrated its responses because it still believed there was a deal to be made with Washington. That calculation appears to be disappearing, because Tehran believes America no longer possesses the escalation dominance it had at the beginning of the war. And Iran is now willing to prove it by deliberately responding harder than it gets hit, meaning Trump now faces a brutal dilemma. If he doesn't respond after publicly promising to “hit them hard,” Tehran can portray it as proof that American threats have lost their force. But if he does hit Iran hard, Tehran is explicitly threatening to escalate even more, and warning that no target in the region is beyond its reach. The most dangerous assumption Trump could make now is that the U.S still gets to decide where the escalation ends. Iran's telling him it has a say in that. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

337,878 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

SURPRISED THAT IRAN IS STILL GETTING MISSILES OFF THE GROUND? DON'T BE. Every move Iran makes stems from one instinct: Survival. Even its missile launches. Tehran never built its missile force to win an air war. It built it to survive one. It stores its missiles in hardened depots and deep tunnel networks known as “missile cities.” More importantly, Iran is unlikely trying to overwhelm defences every night. The objective is to wage war by attrition. As long as even a handful of launchers survive it can beseige the GULF escalating D.C.'s cost of waging war.

SURPRISED THAT IRAN IS STILL GETTING MISSILES OFF THE GROUND? DON'T BE. Every move Iran makes stems from one instinct: Survival. Even its missile launches. Tehran never built its missile force to win an air war. It built it to survive one. It stores its missiles in hardened depots and deep tunnel networks known as “missile cities.” More importantly, Iran is unlikely trying to overwhelm defences every night. The objective is to wage war by attrition. As long as even a handful of launchers survive it can beseige the GULF escalating D.C.'s cost of waging war.

Rahul Shivshankar

784,154 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

The UN Security Council has passed the Gulf States' resolution against Iran. Iran is firing on the countries of the region out of desperation, because it understands that the world has already seen its true face. The regime in Tehran is trying to export terror and destruction, but even the Security Council is running out of patience with dangerous Iranian aggression.

The UN Security Council has passed the Gulf States' resolution against Iran. Iran is firing on the countries of the region out of desperation, because it understands that the world has already seen its true face. The regime in Tehran is trying to export terror and destruction, but even the Security Council is running out of patience with dangerous Iranian aggression.

Danny Danon 🇮🇱 דני דנון

25,314 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🇮🇷 The Persian Gulf is being pulled apart, and Tehran is doing it on purpose. Geopolitics Expert Brandon Weichert explains how Iran's Supreme Leader is using Islamic unity as a weapon to strip Gulf states away from the American and Israeli security umbrella. "Things are going to get very weird over the next 10 to 20 years in the Middle East." The 19th century is back, and the smaller Gulf states are caught in the middle. Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷 The Persian Gulf is being pulled apart, and Tehran is doing it on purpose. Geopolitics Expert Brandon Weichert explains how Iran's Supreme Leader is using Islamic unity as a weapon to strip Gulf states away from the American and Israeli security umbrella. "Things are going to get very weird over the next 10 to 20 years in the Middle East." The 19th century is back, and the smaller Gulf states are caught in the middle. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

53,837 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen