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Iran Thought They Had Won… Then Trump Changed EVERYTHING with ONE Post The regime is collapsing from the inside. It can’t refine or deliver its own oil. There are long diesel lines in Tehran. Cars are breaking down from watered-down gas as the economy craters. They fired 20 missiles...

86,237 次观看 • 10 小时前 •via X (Twitter)

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So Iran saw this threat from Trump and decided to double down on its attacks on the Gulf's oil and gas assets in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE, and now also on Israeli petrochemical infrastructure in Haifa. It was an off-ramp for them, but also a two-way trap. The question is whether Trump makes good on his threats. If he does, the stakes in the oil market are raised, but the IRGC will be dealt a huge blow, since it is entirely dependent on gas to power its regime. This is all a dance to present Iran with a strategic dilemma. Trump is using Israel here as the bad cop in a good-cop, bad-cop game. Iran does not export much gas; instead, it uses gas to power its own economy and so control its own people. It is extremely fragile and flammable, particularly under Israeli and US jets. Nothing could be more damaging to the continuation of the regime than the lights going out because the gas stopped flowing, since that gas powers most of their electricity network. Iranian gas is not a significant export good, unlike its oil. Iran’s best option for inflicting damage on its enemies is to attack their nearby petrochemical industries. In reality, those are the only strategic assets it can meaningfully damage, given how combustible and large they are. Iran needs to be pinned down by indecision. It is now on notice: if it escalates and attacks more Gulf oil assets, Trump lets crazy Israel go nuts and throw Iran into darkness. If it does not, it gets boiled slowly like a frog under continual bombardment. Both options suck for them, it looks like they have picked the more kinetic option, and now the ball is in Trump's court. Who will blink first?

Saul Sadka

54,970 次观看 • 5 个月前