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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran wants everything up front, because sanctions relief can be reversed the moment the ink dries. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre explains why Tehran refuses to open the strait on promises, since anything Washington grants today it can reimpose tomorrow, and Iran has watched that happen before:... show more

Mario Nawfal

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62,732 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why the Kushner playbook fails completely when it comes to Iran. "If there's a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran, if the U.S. presence is back in Iran, that's death to the Islamic Republic." Waving billions at a regime that profits from sanctions and fears Western culture more than poverty will never work. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why the Kushner playbook fails completely when it comes to Iran. "If there's a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran, if the U.S. presence is back in Iran, that's death to the Islamic Republic." Waving billions at a regime that profits from sanctions and fears Western culture more than poverty will never work. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷 The dial gets turned down, and the world's oil supply goes with it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says an Israeli strike on Iran triggers a retaliation nothing like what we've seen before. "Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dial. Whatever the dial is on the strait, it goes down." And that's before Iran even touches Gulf energy targets. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 The dial gets turned down, and the world's oil supply goes with it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says an Israeli strike on Iran triggers a retaliation nothing like what we've seen before. "Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dial. Whatever the dial is on the strait, it goes down." And that's before Iran even touches Gulf energy targets. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to unwind. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that Iran is playing the long game to avoid a "win-humiliation" scenario that Trump is still fantasizing about. Alan argued that the Iranian regime is highly skeptical of the prospect of any deal because they expect the threat of U.S. strikes to return the moment they get the upper hand. "The U.S. can lift sanctions on a Monday and reimpose them on a Tuesday." Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war, while Americans think the opposite. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just broke down why the Israelis are right. "The US has achieved none of its strategic goals. Zero." Iran survived, kept its red lines, and walked away with a new form of strategic deterrence. The missile and drone forces that can close the Strait are still intact. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war, while Americans think the opposite. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just broke down why the Israelis are right. "The US has achieved none of its strategic goals. Zero." Iran survived, kept its red lines, and walked away with a new form of strategic deterrence. The missile and drone forces that can close the Strait are still intact. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre says talks between the U.S. and Iran aren’t happening, as positions are “ridiculously far apart” with no real path forward. With Iran still choking the Strait of Hormuz and both sides looking for a win, a deal isn’t politically viable right now. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre says talks between the U.S. and Iran aren’t happening, as positions are “ridiculously far apart” with no real path forward. With Iran still choking the Strait of Hormuz and both sides looking for a win, a deal isn’t politically viable right now. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Squeeze Iran hard enough and it takes Gulf energy down long before its own economy breaks. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's the trap in the pressure campaign, because Tehran has the means to inflict serious pain on the region's infrastructure well before any collapse arrives at home: "America at this point can't even surrender." Washington has lost the initiative in a war it started, and the people running it still talk like the clock belongs to them. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Squeeze Iran hard enough and it takes Gulf energy down long before its own economy breaks. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's the trap in the pressure campaign, because Tehran has the means to inflict serious pain on the region's infrastructure well before any collapse arrives at home: "America at this point can't even surrender." Washington has lost the initiative in a war it started, and the people running it still talk like the clock belongs to them. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 EVERY WORST-CASE SCENARIO IS HAPPENING IN IRAN WAR Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre lays out a grim view: Iran is holding the Strait of Hormuz, still launching missiles, and potentially reshaping regional power while tensions split the U.S, NATO, and Gulf allies. Instead of a quick operation, the conflict risks dragging on, causing global economic fallout and shifting alliances. As of now, nothing seems like it’s going to plan. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 EVERY WORST-CASE SCENARIO IS HAPPENING IN IRAN WAR Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre lays out a grim view: Iran is holding the Strait of Hormuz, still launching missiles, and potentially reshaping regional power while tensions split the U.S, NATO, and Gulf allies. Instead of a quick operation, the conflict risks dragging on, causing global economic fallout and shifting alliances. As of now, nothing seems like it’s going to plan. Alan Eyre

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Trump says the ceasefire is over, but also says negotiations are ongoing. I sat down with former State Department Iran negotiator Alan Eyre to sort out the contradiction. Alan says this isn't as complicated as it looks. Iran started restricting the Omani shipping corridor to keep more control over strait traffic. The US struck back to reopen it. That's the whole cycle. He calls it a "doom loop": military attacks, half-hearted negotiations, then escalation again, repeating indefinitely. Here's the part that surprised me. Alan thinks the US caves on Hormuz. He puts it above 50% odds. His reasoning: Trump has already said out loud he doesn't care if Iran controls the strait, then reversed himself days later. He also makes the point everyone's skipping: Hormuz leverage has an expiration date. The US, Iraq, and Syria are already reviving a Kirkuk-to-Baniyas pipeline specifically to route oil around the strait. Alan's read: Iran knows this leverage is temporary, which is exactly why they're squeezing it now instead of waiting. So does the US actually fold on Hormuz to save the nuclear deal, or is Eyre wrong that Washington will accept losing this specific fight? Alan Eyre

Trump says the ceasefire is over, but also says negotiations are ongoing. I sat down with former State Department Iran negotiator Alan Eyre to sort out the contradiction. Alan says this isn't as complicated as it looks. Iran started restricting the Omani shipping corridor to keep more control over strait traffic. The US struck back to reopen it. That's the whole cycle. He calls it a "doom loop": military attacks, half-hearted negotiations, then escalation again, repeating indefinitely. Here's the part that surprised me. Alan thinks the US caves on Hormuz. He puts it above 50% odds. His reasoning: Trump has already said out loud he doesn't care if Iran controls the strait, then reversed himself days later. He also makes the point everyone's skipping: Hormuz leverage has an expiration date. The US, Iraq, and Syria are already reviving a Kirkuk-to-Baniyas pipeline specifically to route oil around the strait. Alan's read: Iran knows this leverage is temporary, which is exactly why they're squeezing it now instead of waiting. So does the US actually fold on Hormuz to save the nuclear deal, or is Eyre wrong that Washington will accept losing this specific fight? Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 The same pitch Netanyahu gave every president finally landed on one who was ready to believe it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "He wanted to do the hat trick of Venezuela, Iran and Cuba." Trump isn't the first leader seduced by the fantasy of a quick war. He's just the most recent. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 The same pitch Netanyahu gave every president finally landed on one who was ready to believe it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "He wanted to do the hat trick of Venezuela, Iran and Cuba." Trump isn't the first leader seduced by the fantasy of a quick war. He's just the most recent. Alan Eyre

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🚨 NOW: Iran is growing panicked that President Trump has EASILY out-maneuvered them and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz And they can't to ANYTHING about it! "The Iranians tried to put pressure on the United States and the military in the region and their plan BACKFIRED." "And ultimately that led to President Trump controlling the Strait of Hormuz. And that is what we are seeing right now." "Iranian ports are totally stopped at this moment. They cannot move vessels out through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. Navy blockade. And the President now is issuing this new warning to the Iranian regime if they try to escalate in the Persian Gulf." Trey Yingst

🚨 NOW: Iran is growing panicked that President Trump has EASILY out-maneuvered them and seized control of the Strait of Hormuz And they can't to ANYTHING about it! "The Iranians tried to put pressure on the United States and the military in the region and their plan BACKFIRED." "And ultimately that led to President Trump controlling the Strait of Hormuz. And that is what we are seeing right now." "Iranian ports are totally stopped at this moment. They cannot move vessels out through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. Navy blockade. And the President now is issuing this new warning to the Iranian regime if they try to escalate in the Persian Gulf." Trey Yingst

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 No one wants to be left holding the region when the music stops. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just mapped out what comes next, and every major player is weakened, radicalized, or desperate to exit. "You've got a U.S. who's going to be so traumatized by the war that they just want to get out of there." Transitional times are very dangerous. And this one has no adult in the room. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 No one wants to be left holding the region when the music stops. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just mapped out what comes next, and every major player is weakened, radicalized, or desperate to exit. "You've got a U.S. who's going to be so traumatized by the war that they just want to get out of there." Transitional times are very dangerous. And this one has no adult in the room. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷The U.S. side is threatening, boasting, and asking for photo ops with the country whose leaders it just killed. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's why a deal is slipping away. "The US side are not engaging in consistent adult behavior." When your own diplomat sounds more like Tehran than Washington, something has gone very wrong. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 🇮🇷The U.S. side is threatening, boasting, and asking for photo ops with the country whose leaders it just killed. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's why a deal is slipping away. "The US side are not engaging in consistent adult behavior." When your own diplomat sounds more like Tehran than Washington, something has gone very wrong. Alan Eyre

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Reporter: it's our understanding that the U.S. has committed to discussing the matter of sanctions relief during this negotiation period. So just to be clear, is sanctions relief for Iran on the table? Bessent: It is a multifaceted agreement. And nothing is going to be on the table until we see the strait of hormuz open and the Iranians agree that they they have to turn over the the highly enriched uranium

Reporter: it's our understanding that the U.S. has committed to discussing the matter of sanctions relief during this negotiation period. So just to be clear, is sanctions relief for Iran on the table? Bessent: It is a multifaceted agreement. And nothing is going to be on the table until we see the strait of hormuz open and the Iranians agree that they they have to turn over the the highly enriched uranium

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP’S WAY OUT? WALK AWAY AND CALL IT A WIN Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre floats a blunt scenario: Trump exits the war, claims victory, and leaves the Strait of Hormuz effectively under Iran’s control. That would let Iran keep the Strait as a pressure point, or toll booth to recover some of its losses without a formal settlement. His argument is simple: take the political hit now, or risk turning a bad war into a far worse one. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP’S WAY OUT? WALK AWAY AND CALL IT A WIN Former senior U.S. diplomat and Iran expert Alan Eyre floats a blunt scenario: Trump exits the war, claims victory, and leaves the Strait of Hormuz effectively under Iran’s control. That would let Iran keep the Strait as a pressure point, or toll booth to recover some of its losses without a formal settlement. His argument is simple: take the political hit now, or risk turning a bad war into a far worse one. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

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JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: U.S. and Iranian Negotiations hit a BIG WALL, The Strait of Hormuz Iran stressed the Strait of Hormuz, won't return to its pre-war status, and a new transit protocol must be established. The U.S. wants to return to what it was before the war. The 40-day War on Iran gave them a nuke, the Strait of Hormuz, and they will not give it up! This was a problem created by Netanyahu lying and starting this war on Iran and the world is paying the price. Thanks again Bibi...

JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: U.S. and Iranian Negotiations hit a BIG WALL, The Strait of Hormuz Iran stressed the Strait of Hormuz, won't return to its pre-war status, and a new transit protocol must be established. The U.S. wants to return to what it was before the war. The 40-day War on Iran gave them a nuke, the Strait of Hormuz, and they will not give it up! This was a problem created by Netanyahu lying and starting this war on Iran and the world is paying the price. Thanks again Bibi...

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🇺🇸🇮🇷Lebanon comes before nukes, and Tehran is betting Washington won't force Israel's hand. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran's opening move in negotiations isn't the nuclear file at all. "They want to see if Trump is willing to exercise control over Netanyahu, because if Trump isn't, that's a whole nother ball of wax." If Trump can't deliver Israel, Iran walks away with the wedge it wanted all along. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷Lebanon comes before nukes, and Tehran is betting Washington won't force Israel's hand. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran's opening move in negotiations isn't the nuclear file at all. "They want to see if Trump is willing to exercise control over Netanyahu, because if Trump isn't, that's a whole nother ball of wax." If Trump can't deliver Israel, Iran walks away with the wedge it wanted all along. Alan Eyre

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🚨 JUST IN: President Trump's team has given Iran until TOMORROW to publicly renounce attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and to state that the Strait is OPEN for travel There will be CONSEQUENCES if not, per Axios 🔥 Trump is playing hardball: He said the ceasefire is OVER, now Iran knows he's not just going to sit back and watch them violate EVERY commitment they make FOX: "The U.S. is now demanding that Iran make a public statement declaring the Strait of Hormuz is open and that ships crossing will no longer be attacked." "The U.S. hit roughly 170 targets in Iran this week, including rail bridges the U.S. says were used to transport weapons."

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump's team has given Iran until TOMORROW to publicly renounce attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and to state that the Strait is OPEN for travel There will be CONSEQUENCES if not, per Axios 🔥 Trump is playing hardball: He said the ceasefire is OVER, now Iran knows he's not just going to sit back and watch them violate EVERY commitment they make FOX: "The U.S. is now demanding that Iran make a public statement declaring the Strait of Hormuz is open and that ships crossing will no longer be attacked." "The U.S. hit roughly 170 targets in Iran this week, including rail bridges the U.S. says were used to transport weapons."

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