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IRAN WAR ESCALATION: ARE NUCLEAR WEAPONS NOW ON THE TABLE? With a failed U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, peace talks appear stalled, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise. Iran has reportedly issued Washington a four-week ultimatum: meet its demands or face a severe escalation in the...

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🎥 Jeremy Scahill Breaks Down the Current State of the War and Negotiations President Trump is trying to spin the emerging U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding as a victory, but the core U.S. demands have fallen away, Jeremy Scahill said. “The 2015 JCPOA already said Iran would not seek, develop, or acquire nuclear weapons,” Scahill said. “The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war began.” Iran’s key demands now are lifting the U.S. military blockade on Hormuz, withdrawing U.S. forces amassed in the region, repatriating billions in frozen assets, and importantly, securing an end to Israel’s war on Lebanon, he explains. jeremy scahill | Ryan Grim
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🎥 Jeremy Scahill Breaks Down the Current State of the War and Negotiations President Trump is trying to spin the emerging U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding as a victory, but the core U.S. demands have fallen away, Jeremy Scahill said. “The 2015 JCPOA already said Iran would not seek, develop, or acquire nuclear weapons,” Scahill said. “The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war began.” Iran’s key demands now are lifting the U.S. military blockade on Hormuz, withdrawing U.S. forces amassed in the region, repatriating billions in frozen assets, and importantly, securing an end to Israel’s war on Lebanon, he explains. jeremy scahill | Ryan Grim

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JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: U.S. and Iranian Negotiations hit a BIG WALL, The Strait of Hormuz Iran stressed the Strait of Hormuz, won't return to its pre-war status, and a new transit protocol must be established. The U.S. wants to return to what it was before the war. The 40-day War on Iran gave them a nuke, the Strait of Hormuz, and they will not give it up! This was a problem created by Netanyahu lying and starting this war on Iran and the world is paying the price. Thanks again Bibi...
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JUST IN 🇮🇷🇺🇸: U.S. and Iranian Negotiations hit a BIG WALL, The Strait of Hormuz Iran stressed the Strait of Hormuz, won't return to its pre-war status, and a new transit protocol must be established. The U.S. wants to return to what it was before the war. The 40-day War on Iran gave them a nuke, the Strait of Hormuz, and they will not give it up! This was a problem created by Netanyahu lying and starting this war on Iran and the world is paying the price. Thanks again Bibi...

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Former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. suggests Israel most likely lost the war against Iran, admitting that none of its major objectives were achieved. He says Iran will remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz, gain access to frozen assets, and receive sanctions relief. He also says Israel has no idea what happened to Iran’s nuclear stockpile. “None of those goals have been achieved.” “There’s a somber mood in Israel tonight.”
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Former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. suggests Israel most likely lost the war against Iran, admitting that none of its major objectives were achieved. He says Iran will remain in control of the Strait of Hormuz, gain access to frozen assets, and receive sanctions relief. He also says Israel has no idea what happened to Iran’s nuclear stockpile. “None of those goals have been achieved.” “There’s a somber mood in Israel tonight.”

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.–Iran deal is on the brink of collapse. Why could the world miss out on a new nuclear agreement? Here are the top 5 reasons 1️⃣ Conflicting signals on talks. Washington says a new round of negotiations is set for Doha. Tehran insists: "No talks with the U.S. are scheduled in the coming days." 2️⃣ The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. The U.S. demands unrestricted freedom of navigation, while Iran insists it has the right to control the strategic waterway. 3️⃣ No breakthrough on sanctions or the nuclear program. The fate of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the lifting of sanctions remain the biggest sticking points. 4️⃣ One spark could reignite the conflict. A recent exchange of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz—including an attack on a tanker and a U.S. response—has already triggered a new wave of mutual threats. 5️⃣ The Lebanon front is complicating everything. Iran demands a full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel insists Hezbollah must first be disarmed. As long as fighting continues, diplomacy remains deadlocked. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders now give just a 46% chance that a final U.S.–Iran nuclear deal will be reached before the end of 2026📊 Would you bet on a deal—or another escalation?
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💢 Strait of Hormuz Commission — “Open for All or Closed to All” Richard Haass, former head of the Council on Foreign Relations, says Washington is not negotiating from strength and and that Iran has emerged from the war with greater leverage. 🔸On Hormuz, he suggests Washington should tell Iran that the Strait of Hormuz can be “open to all or closed to all.” ➤ Proposes an international governing commission, including Iran and Gulf states, to oversee transit though Hormuz ➤ Open to tolls and shared revenue as part of the framework 🔸Crucially, Haass says if Iran refuses, the U.S. should consider blockading Hormuz at the Gulf of Oman to stop Iranian oil exports. 🔸His view: ➤ Washington should not accept Iran’s sole control over Hormuz ➤ But also cannot realistically exclude Iran from the strait ➤ Haass says the war has made a return to the pre-war status quo impossible and U.S. has lost the war in a strategic and political sense. Separately. he calls on Trump to pressure Israel to stop what he describes as a “discretionary war” in Lebanon. “Knock it off,” he suggests Trump tell Netanyahu.
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💢 Strait of Hormuz Commission — “Open for All or Closed to All” Richard Haass, former head of the Council on Foreign Relations, says Washington is not negotiating from strength and and that Iran has emerged from the war with greater leverage. 🔸On Hormuz, he suggests Washington should tell Iran that the Strait of Hormuz can be “open to all or closed to all.” ➤ Proposes an international governing commission, including Iran and Gulf states, to oversee transit though Hormuz ➤ Open to tolls and shared revenue as part of the framework 🔸Crucially, Haass says if Iran refuses, the U.S. should consider blockading Hormuz at the Gulf of Oman to stop Iranian oil exports. 🔸His view: ➤ Washington should not accept Iran’s sole control over Hormuz ➤ But also cannot realistically exclude Iran from the strait ➤ Haass says the war has made a return to the pre-war status quo impossible and U.S. has lost the war in a strategic and political sense. Separately. he calls on Trump to pressure Israel to stop what he describes as a “discretionary war” in Lebanon. “Knock it off,” he suggests Trump tell Netanyahu.

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This weekend, the U.S. paused military strikes on Iran and talks between Oman and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz appear to be moving in a positive direction, although regional officials warn more negotiations are needed. A new CBS News poll finds a majority of Americans believe the U.S. should end the conflict with Iran now, while a third say it should continue until Iran makes further concessions.

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New details are emerging about the proposed U.S.-Iran agreement, which reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. naval blockade, a 60-day negotiating period over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and renewed oil exports, along with a broader ceasefire framework involving Israel and Hezbollah.

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NEW: U.S. and Iran negotiators have reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program, according to reports. The agreement awaits final approval from President Trump and marks a notable diplomatic step three months into the conflict. If approved, terms would allow unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. blockade, and include discussions on sanctions relief along with the release of frozen Iranian funds.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran War Update: Iran has reportedly laid out nine conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, demanding major concessions from Washington. The demands include $300B in compensation, lifting sanctions, U.S. force withdrawal and restrictions on U.S. and Israeli vessels. 1. End U.S. threats 2. End wars against Iran 3. Lift blockade, withdraw U.S. forces 4. $300B compensation 5. Lift all sanctions 6. Unfreeze Iranian assets 7. Up to 7% transit fee 8. Ban U.S. and Israeli vessels 9. 20% violation penalty

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The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran shows no sign of slowing, with both sides trading strikes and vowing to keep up the attacks. U.S. officials said the campaign has destroyed most of Iran’s ability to produce nuclear fuel, and President Trump said U.S. forces also struck sea mine targets tied to Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz. Stephanie Sy reports.

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💢 STATEMENT: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the joint operational command of Iran’s Armed Forces that coordinates the military and the IRGC, issued a new warning rejecting any U.S. role in the Strait of Hormuz. The headquarters’ spokesperson said: ▪️ Iran “will under no circumstances” allow the U.S. to interfere in managing the Strait of Hormuz. ▪️ Iranian forces will respond forcefully to any U.S. military activity affecting commercial shipping outside routes designated by Iran. ▪️ Gulf states were warned that providing logistical support to U.S. forces would be considered an act of war against Iran’s sovereignty and national security. ▪️ The statement said that if the conflict expands, “the flames of war” could engulf the entire region, and blamed the U.S. and its regional partners for any further escalation.
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💢 STATEMENT: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the joint operational command of Iran’s Armed Forces that coordinates the military and the IRGC, issued a new warning rejecting any U.S. role in the Strait of Hormuz. The headquarters’ spokesperson said: ▪️ Iran “will under no circumstances” allow the U.S. to interfere in managing the Strait of Hormuz. ▪️ Iranian forces will respond forcefully to any U.S. military activity affecting commercial shipping outside routes designated by Iran. ▪️ Gulf states were warned that providing logistical support to U.S. forces would be considered an act of war against Iran’s sovereignty and national security. ▪️ The statement said that if the conflict expands, “the flames of war” could engulf the entire region, and blamed the U.S. and its regional partners for any further escalation.

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The U.S. and Iran are locked in a war of words as strikes continue and any path to a deal remains deeply unclear. Jared Kushner says talks are ongoing, but President Trump says no talks are scheduled. The U.S. says its naval blockade remains in place while the Strait of Hormuz is open, a claim Iran denies as it continues firing missiles. The Financial Times reports Iran has weighed striking U.S. targets in Europe, including in Cyprus and Bulgaria, adding another potential flashpoint as the region remains caught in a cycle of threats, conflicting statements, and strikes. | Trey Yingst

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Iran to become the fourth center of world power Robert Pape is an American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago. His military planning and war-gaming experience includes teaching air-power strategy at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies (1991–1994). He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military and air-war strategy. For over 20 years, he has run Iran-war simulations in his strategy courses, modeling bombing campaigns, escalation dynamics, and political outcomes to help the military and government understand how force translates into political results. On the Mario Nawfal show, Robert Pape argued that Iran is on a rapid path to become the fourth center of world power (alongside the U.S., China, and Russia) within roughly a year to 18 months if the current conflict dynamics continue. He explained that the ongoing war has trapped the U.S. in an “escalation trap” across three stages: failed regime-change bombing that hardened the Iranian regime, horizontal escalation (drones hitting regional targets and selective control of the Strait of Hormuz), and potential ground operations. Iran has already gained practical control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—allowing it to disrupt supplies, impose tolls, or expand influence to the Red Sea choke point. This would make Iran an oil hegemon richer than the U.S. (which produces ~16% of world oil). Combined with near-certain operational nuclear weapons (he estimated >90% chance of a dozen working bombs within a year if the war stops), Iran would acquire nuclear deterrence like North Korea while wielding unmatched energy leverage. Pape stressed he is not saying Iran is already the fourth power today, but that the war itself has created a “propitious” future for Tehran: it strengthens the regime, weakens adversaries, and positions Iran as a nuclear-armed regional hegemon capable of toppling Gulf states and reshaping global energy politics. Prolonged conflict or U.S. withdrawal would hand Iran this status, turning a contained adversary into a new pole of world power. He based this on 21 years of Iran-war modeling.
3:02

Iran to become the fourth center of world power Robert Pape is an American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago. His military planning and war-gaming experience includes teaching air-power strategy at the U.S. Air Force’s School of Advanced Airpower Studies (1991–1994). He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military and air-war strategy. For over 20 years, he has run Iran-war simulations in his strategy courses, modeling bombing campaigns, escalation dynamics, and political outcomes to help the military and government understand how force translates into political results. On the Mario Nawfal show, Robert Pape argued that Iran is on a rapid path to become the fourth center of world power (alongside the U.S., China, and Russia) within roughly a year to 18 months if the current conflict dynamics continue. He explained that the ongoing war has trapped the U.S. in an “escalation trap” across three stages: failed regime-change bombing that hardened the Iranian regime, horizontal escalation (drones hitting regional targets and selective control of the Strait of Hormuz), and potential ground operations. Iran has already gained practical control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of global oil flows—allowing it to disrupt supplies, impose tolls, or expand influence to the Red Sea choke point. This would make Iran an oil hegemon richer than the U.S. (which produces ~16% of world oil). Combined with near-certain operational nuclear weapons (he estimated >90% chance of a dozen working bombs within a year if the war stops), Iran would acquire nuclear deterrence like North Korea while wielding unmatched energy leverage. Pape stressed he is not saying Iran is already the fourth power today, but that the war itself has created a “propitious” future for Tehran: it strengthens the regime, weakens adversaries, and positions Iran as a nuclear-armed regional hegemon capable of toppling Gulf states and reshaping global energy politics. Prolonged conflict or U.S. withdrawal would hand Iran this status, turning a contained adversary into a new pole of world power. He based this on 21 years of Iran-war modeling.

Ramin-negahdari

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a 60-day extension of their fragile ceasefire. Under the reported proposal, Iran would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade. The hardest issues are being pushed down the road. Washington wants guarantees on Iran's nuclear program. Tehran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and assurances it won't be attacked again. The ceasefire is holding. The trust isn't.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a 60-day extension of their fragile ceasefire. Under the reported proposal, Iran would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. lifts its naval blockade. The hardest issues are being pushed down the road. Washington wants guarantees on Iran's nuclear program. Tehran wants sanctions relief, access to frozen assets, and assurances it won't be attacked again. The ceasefire is holding. The trust isn't.

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NEW: Iran launching missiles at Jordan, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait after another wave of U.S. strikes inside Iran. U.S. officials also pushing back on viral social media claims that American service members were injured in Kuwait, saying those reports are false. The latest escalation follows U.S. strikes on dozens of Iranian missile and maritime targets after Iran attacked a Cyprus-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions rise, shipping through the strait continues to slow and oil prices climb to around $79 a barrel, Mike Tobin reports.
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NEW: Iran launching missiles at Jordan, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait after another wave of U.S. strikes inside Iran. U.S. officials also pushing back on viral social media claims that American service members were injured in Kuwait, saying those reports are false. The latest escalation follows U.S. strikes on dozens of Iranian missile and maritime targets after Iran attacked a Cyprus-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions rise, shipping through the strait continues to slow and oil prices climb to around $79 a barrel, Mike Tobin reports.

Fox News

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: The winner of this war is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has emerged stronger from this war. A Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. has yet to be signed, changes are still possible. The agreement consists of two stages. The nuclear issue was not discussed in the first stage and we deferred it to the second stage. If the provisions of the MoU are not met, the final agreement will not be signed. The first thing mentioned in the agreement is that the US naval blockade be lifted. We will never leave Hezbollah in Lebanon alone, and the end of the war in Lebanon will include all fronts. The Strait of Hormuz is under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman. The future of the Strait of Hormuz will not be like the past, and our sword will always hang over the Strait. Iran and Oman will soon issue a joint statement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. According to international law, it is not possible to collect tolls from the Strait of Hormuz, but service fees will be collected. Paying compensation to Iran is in plan.
1:41

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: The winner of this war is the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has emerged stronger from this war. A Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. has yet to be signed, changes are still possible. The agreement consists of two stages. The nuclear issue was not discussed in the first stage and we deferred it to the second stage. If the provisions of the MoU are not met, the final agreement will not be signed. The first thing mentioned in the agreement is that the US naval blockade be lifted. We will never leave Hezbollah in Lebanon alone, and the end of the war in Lebanon will include all fronts. The Strait of Hormuz is under the sovereignty of Iran and Oman. The future of the Strait of Hormuz will not be like the past, and our sword will always hang over the Strait. Iran and Oman will soon issue a joint statement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz. According to international law, it is not possible to collect tolls from the Strait of Hormuz, but service fees will be collected. Paying compensation to Iran is in plan.

Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning Hormuz into the price of ending the war, and the U.S may now face an impossible choice. Shipping through the Strait has reportedly fallen from roughly 130–140 vessels a day before the war to just SIX yesterday, and the positions on both sides appear to be getting further apart. Iran is now tying the full reopening of Hormuz to a much bigger package of demands: End the war and blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and secure a broader regional ceasefire encompassing Lebanon and Gaza. Only then does the Strait fully reopen. Iran and Oman may be getting closer to agreeing HOW shipping would operate through Hormuz, but that doesn't mean Tehran has agreed to actually reopen it yet. And while the diplomacy drags on, the physical situation is getting worse. Kpler figures suggest oil flows have fallen to around 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transiting daily before the war. Which brings us to what may be the biggest strategic shift of the entire conflict. According to a U.S military intelligence assessment, Iran's strategic priority may increasingly be moving away from its nuclear program, and toward control of Hormuz itself. Think about what that means. For decades, Iran sought deterrence through its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional allies. But this war may have accidentally handed Tehran something capable of inflicting immediate economic pain on the entire world: Hormuz. "The Strait of Hormuz IS their nuclear weapon." Not literally as a military deterrent, but economically, the leverage is extraordinary, and that leaves Trump with horrible options. Accept some version of Iran's demands and potentially end the war with Tehran exercising MORE authority over Hormuz than it had before the fighting began. Or attempt to break Iranian control militarily. But the U.S military assessment warns that doing so could be lengthy, costly, and deadly, with no guarantee it would even work. The Iran war may not actually be ending; it may simply be frozen, with both sides waiting for the moment when they think they can win the next round.
57:26

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning Hormuz into the price of ending the war, and the U.S may now face an impossible choice. Shipping through the Strait has reportedly fallen from roughly 130–140 vessels a day before the war to just SIX yesterday, and the positions on both sides appear to be getting further apart. Iran is now tying the full reopening of Hormuz to a much bigger package of demands: End the war and blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and secure a broader regional ceasefire encompassing Lebanon and Gaza. Only then does the Strait fully reopen. Iran and Oman may be getting closer to agreeing HOW shipping would operate through Hormuz, but that doesn't mean Tehran has agreed to actually reopen it yet. And while the diplomacy drags on, the physical situation is getting worse. Kpler figures suggest oil flows have fallen to around 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transiting daily before the war. Which brings us to what may be the biggest strategic shift of the entire conflict. According to a U.S military intelligence assessment, Iran's strategic priority may increasingly be moving away from its nuclear program, and toward control of Hormuz itself. Think about what that means. For decades, Iran sought deterrence through its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional allies. But this war may have accidentally handed Tehran something capable of inflicting immediate economic pain on the entire world: Hormuz. "The Strait of Hormuz IS their nuclear weapon." Not literally as a military deterrent, but economically, the leverage is extraordinary, and that leaves Trump with horrible options. Accept some version of Iran's demands and potentially end the war with Tehran exercising MORE authority over Hormuz than it had before the fighting began. Or attempt to break Iranian control militarily. But the U.S military assessment warns that doing so could be lengthy, costly, and deadly, with no guarantee it would even work. The Iran war may not actually be ending; it may simply be frozen, with both sides waiting for the moment when they think they can win the next round.

Mario Nawfal

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Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States ends its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran wants the U.S. to lift blockade, pay compensation for months of war damage, lift economic sanctions and release Iran’s frozen assets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil supplies - has become the war’s most lasting consequence.
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Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the United States ends its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Iran wants the U.S. to lift blockade, pay compensation for months of war damage, lift economic sanctions and release Iran’s frozen assets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil supplies - has become the war’s most lasting consequence.

The Associated Press

235,737 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen