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$IREN has delivered the first 50MW Horizon facility to $MSFT while $NVDA validated the GB300 deployment with Exemplar Cloud status. If Horizons 2–4 land on schedule this year then IREN will scale that buildout to 200MW as it works toward 480MW in 2026 and 1.2GW in 2027.

128,055 views • 17 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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The next two months put $IREN's entire pivot on one milestone. Horizon 1, its first GB300 super cluster at Childress, is targeted to hand off to $MSFT in Q3, roughly July through September, the opening delivery under the five year, $9.7 billion Microsoft contract and the point where that contract starts turning into revenue. For a year the company has been buying the hard things. Power, land, financing. Now it has to turn them into delivered compute. That is the whole test. "The world is structurally short compute, and the bottleneck is delivered data center and GPU capacity," said Daniel Roberts, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN. Horizon 1 is him putting that to the proof. Capacity nobody can energize is worthless. Capacity handed to a hyperscaler on schedule is the business. The rest of the window fills in around it. The Mirantis acquisition, signed in May, is pending close and adds the software layer to run the fleet. $3.1 billion of ARR sits under contract against a $4.4 billion target, so there is room for another customer, and management is openly chasing one. The $3.65 billion GPU financing that closed June 1 already funds most of the $MSFT hardware, with $NVDA and $DELL on the supply side. Sweetwater 1, energized in May, keeps ramping power behind all of it. The full year FY2026 results that put real numbers on all of this land just past the window, late August into September. The catalysts here are operational first, reported second. What makes that timeline credible is the record behind it. $IREN hit 50 EH/s on the schedule it set, energized Sweetwater 1 on schedule, and has Horizon 1-4 tracking for year-end. This is a team that keeps turning secured power into online capacity on time, and each build makes the next one faster. How many names in this AI buildout are actually delivering capacity on schedule, not just announcing it? It's not a sprint, it's a marathon.

Patient Investor

105,170 views • 2 months ago

$NBIS and $CRWV growing like crazy shouldn't be surprising. Satya Nadella publicly explained 6 months ago on a podcast that $MSFT would be leasing a lot of capacity going forward rather than building all itself. Here is what I think is happening: These neo-cloud businesses, both $NBIS and $CRWV, exist solely because $NVDA wants them to exist. Nvidia has an equity stake in both companies, and they are both members of the Nvidia Partners Program. Nvidia grants early access to its chips to the partners. Nvidia does that because it knows all hyperscalers, especially $MSFT and $AMZN, are racing to develop their own cutting-edge GPUs, as this is their biggest cost in scaling cloud operations. Nvidia knows that if they are allowed to control the supply, it will prolong the upgrade cycles and reduce orders to gain time to develop its own chips. This is why it's providing early access to the neo-clouds that are 100% dependent on Nvidia chips. Hyperscalers know that if they delay orders for the fresh capacity, the demand will shift to the neo-clouds that can build capacity fast with the support of $NVDA. Thus, $NVDA corners hyperscalers and strategically compels them to put new orders and cripples their ability to focus on their own chips. $MSFT sees this and says, "If this is the case, I'll just lease the capacity from the neo-clouds." It's basically a strategic response to $NVDA. It leases the bulk of their capacity, making them dependent on it. So, if $MSFT backs down, they'll have a really hard time staying alive. There is a small window of opportunity here for neo-clouds. If they can scale beyond hyperscalers and form a fragmented customer base, they may keep thriving even if hyperscalers reduce leases. Currently, $NBIS has a better shot at it than $CRWV, as $MSFT already makes up 72% of its revenue. I am long $NBIS, and I have already made 4x of money in the stock. I'll remain long $NBIS and even grow my position, but I'll remain skeptical of $CRWV for its unfavorable strategic position, as I explained above.

Oguz Erkan

180,198 views • 11 months ago