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Is AI causing Big Tech layoffs? No, according to Marc Andreessen. Rather, it’s because of sloppy, lazy Covid era over-hiring. 25% to 75% excess headcount: “Employees became an icon on a screen. “Essentially every large company is overstaffed… “It’s at least overstaffed by 25%. I think most large companies...

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Compound248 💰

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52,537 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Marc Andreessen says AI is the "silver bullet excuse" for companies laying people off, but most layoffs are actually due to higher interest rates and overstaffing during COVID: "This entire labor displacement thing is 100% incorrect. It's completely wrong. It's classic zero-sum economics." "It was the combination of the two—interest rates going to zero during COVID, and then the complete loss of discipline at all these companies when they went virtual and when employees just became an icon on a screen." "What you have happening right now is that essentially every large company is overstaffed. We could debate how much—it's at least overstaffed by 25%. I think most large companies are overstaffed by 50%. A lot of them are overstaffed by 75%." "And now they all have the silver bullet excuse—it's AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings
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Marc Andreessen says AI is the "silver bullet excuse" for companies laying people off, but most layoffs are actually due to higher interest rates and overstaffing during COVID: "This entire labor displacement thing is 100% incorrect. It's completely wrong. It's classic zero-sum economics." "It was the combination of the two—interest rates going to zero during COVID, and then the complete loss of discipline at all these companies when they went virtual and when employees just became an icon on a screen." "What you have happening right now is that essentially every large company is overstaffed. We could debate how much—it's at least overstaffed by 25%. I think most large companies are overstaffed by 50%. A lot of them are overstaffed by 75%." "And now they all have the silver bullet excuse—it's AI." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

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🚨 Marc Andreessen Says the AI Layoffs Hype is ‘100% Incorrect’ “Essentially every large company is overstaffed. We could debate how much but it's at least by 25% … And now they all have the silver bullet excuse — it's AI. I know this for a fact because I talk to them.”
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🚨 Marc Andreessen Says the AI Layoffs Hype is ‘100% Incorrect’ “Essentially every large company is overstaffed. We could debate how much but it's at least by 25% … And now they all have the silver bullet excuse — it's AI. I know this for a fact because I talk to them.”

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Marc Andreessen on why companies are cutting headcount, and why AI is taking the blame for something it didn't cause: "Why are we seeing layoffs every year? Why is every CEO I'm meeting saying, 'Oh, we're flat headcount or we're reducing.'" His answer points straight to interest rates. "Every big company had to replan all of their financials. All their cost of capital went up five points." When rates spiked, companies were forced to rethink everything. That cracked open a deeper problem: the hiring binge of the COVID era. "What you have happening right now is you have essentially every large company that is overstaffed." So why is AI taking the heat? Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 is blunt: "They all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI." But the timeline doesn't hold up. Marc makes it clear the numbers simply don't support that story: "AI, until literally December, was not actually good enough to do any of the jobs that they're actually cutting. So it just can't have been AI." The same logic applies to new graduates struggling to land work. People are quick to point at automation, but Marc sees two more grounded explanations. First, the over-hiring hangover: companies that ballooned headcount during COVID are now pulling back hard and not bringing new hires in on top of that. Second, a harder conversation about skills. Marc puts it plainly: "Maybe the skill set of a lot of college graduates over the last decade doesn't necessarily match to the job market. That's a very uncomfortable conversation. But if you talk to any employer, they'll immediately tell you that." The real story is simpler than people think. Companies overspent when money was cheap, overhired during COVID, and now the skills coming out of universities don't match what the job market needs.
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Marc Andreessen on why companies are cutting headcount, and why AI is taking the blame for something it didn't cause: "Why are we seeing layoffs every year? Why is every CEO I'm meeting saying, 'Oh, we're flat headcount or we're reducing.'" His answer points straight to interest rates. "Every big company had to replan all of their financials. All their cost of capital went up five points." When rates spiked, companies were forced to rethink everything. That cracked open a deeper problem: the hiring binge of the COVID era. "What you have happening right now is you have essentially every large company that is overstaffed." So why is AI taking the heat? Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 is blunt: "They all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI." But the timeline doesn't hold up. Marc makes it clear the numbers simply don't support that story: "AI, until literally December, was not actually good enough to do any of the jobs that they're actually cutting. So it just can't have been AI." The same logic applies to new graduates struggling to land work. People are quick to point at automation, but Marc sees two more grounded explanations. First, the over-hiring hangover: companies that ballooned headcount during COVID are now pulling back hard and not bringing new hires in on top of that. Second, a harder conversation about skills. Marc puts it plainly: "Maybe the skill set of a lot of college graduates over the last decade doesn't necessarily match to the job market. That's a very uncomfortable conversation. But if you talk to any employer, they'll immediately tell you that." The real story is simpler than people think. Companies overspent when money was cheap, overhired during COVID, and now the skills coming out of universities don't match what the job market needs.

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