🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israeli generals are leaking that Netanyahu was warned Iran would never fold, and that leak may matter more to the war's next chapter than anything in Washington Most of our guests expect a bigger war this autumn. Robert Barnes thinks that fear rests on three shaky assumptions, and... the third is the one nobody is pricing. The first is that America can absorb Iran's counterattacks, when the plan to destroy the launchers first has failed every time it's been tried. The second is that a president under pressure at home can afford another round. The third is Israel. Someone inside the IDF has leaked to the Hebrew press that Netanyahu was told Mossad's forecast of an Iranian collapse was false, that Iran would only harden, and that this was never shared with the CIA. Robert reads it as the pragmatic wing declaring itself, and he notes Israel has finally admitted the Haifa refinery was hit. If Netanyahu is replaced by a general who wants a mission with an exit, the appetite for an existential fight with Iran goes with him. Robert Barnes Brandon Weichertshow more

its giving house of cards but with nukes

The IDF leaking suppressed warnings while admitting critical infrastructure damage is the military establishment actively manufacturing an off-ramp before an attritional war breaks their domestic defense envelope.

The Haifa refinery admission alone should have been bigger news than it was like why is nobody talking about this more

What does the pragmatic wing inside the IDF actually want here because that leak feels very intentional to me

Hmm so Mossad gave a false forecast and didnt even loop in the CIA? That feels like a massive breakdown in trust between allies

That kind of leak from Israeli military circles about Netanyahu's pre-war assumptions could genuinely reshape how people read the next phase of the conflict. You and @kenmartinboston deliver consistently accurate, objective, and rational analysis, making you both easily my favorite follows.

If this leak is genuine, it could be more significant than another round of strikes. The real question is whether Israel is moving toward a sustainable endgame—or simply preparing for a longer conflict. 👀

If those reports are accurate, the biggest variable may not be Washington at all—it could be Israel’s own assessment of what a sustainable endgame looks like. 👀 A leadership shift from “win at any cost” to “mission with an exit” could completely change the trajectory.

if Netanyahu gets replaced by someone who actually wants an exit strategy that changes everything overnight

Soo basically the whole case for a bigger war rests on three assumptions that might all be wrong at the same time 👀

NOBODY IS PRICING THE ISRAEL VARIABLE AND THATS THE WHOLE POINT

Robert Barnes connecting dots that most analysts are too scared to even draw near

If those reported warnings and leaks are accurate, they could have major implications for how the conflict develops. The key question is whether either side sees a viable path to an exit.