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Israel’s Mossad (external intelligence service) published some of their ops inside Iran where you can see their special operatives deploying precision-strike loitering munitions (drones) against Iranian air defense systems. It’s very rare for anything like this to be released publicly, I think the Israelis are in shock that this...

335,102 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

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What if any preparations have you seen Iran make ahead of the war? Can you discuss It’s missile capabilities? Any intelligence capabilities? Any surprises it might happen in store? When the 12-day war ended, I estimated that Iran would need about six months to recover, including its nuclear program. Contrary to popular belief, Iran did not lose its entire long-range or medium-range air defense network; while some launchers were damaged, the primary targets of the Israeli strikes were the radar systems. Once the radars were neutralized, Iran successfully hid the bulk of its remaining batteries, leaving much of its arsenal intact. In contrast, short-range systems like the Tor-M1 and domestic variants were heavily engaged against cruise missiles, often being lost or damaged only after their ammunition was completely exhausted. Since then, Iran has worked to rebuild its destroyed radar network and, above all, to implement a genuine counterintelligence doctrine. The Mossad operations against Iranian radars and air defense systems have shaped new perimeter defense and counterintelligence doctrines not only in Iran but in other countries as well. If we look at the quantity of weapons and the organization of armed groups during Iran’s most recent protests, I would say the problem of foreign intelligence operations inside the country remains severe. This seriously threatens much of Iran’s capabilities, and I foresee a wave of sabotage operations as a new war draws closer. Iran has begun receiving collaboration from China across multiple areas,from satellites to internal counterintelligence, but it may still take some time for this to produce tangible results. During the last years, the Mossad relied heavily on cell phones, using SMS for recruitment and accessing device GPS for target location. Iran has since focused intensely on preventing any repetition of this, and on this specific issue, the Chinese appear to have provided support. Although foreign intelligence services have operated extensively inside Iran, the scale of any armed opposition groups is negligible compared to the Iranian armed forces, which could still draw on allied paramilitaries and militias in neighboring countries, including the Houthis. Iran has become a missile power with a stockpile far larger than Western estimates suggest. As early as 1998, Iran was already producing missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000 km, and it has continued doing so ever since, developing 12 to 15 different models in that range - meaning all are capable of reaching Israel. That is nearly 30 years of continuous missile production, resulting in a stockpile of several thousands. Another area where Iran has emerged as a global power is drones, including underwater ones. Iran’s UUVs have evolved rapidly into mass-produced models with integrated AI, and I believe they hold some major surprises in reserve. A key point today is that the AN/TPY-2 radars, which played a critical role in tracking Iranian missiles, would be among the first targets to be engaged. These high-powered X-band radars are the backbone of regional missile defense, providing essential data to THAAD and Patriot batteries. However, because they are large, stationary, and emit high-energy signals, they are highly vulnerable to a first-strike or saturation attack, which would effectively 'blind' the entire defensive network. Obviously, a defense budget of nearly one trillion dollars cannot be compared to Iran’s, but the real question is whether the cost and effort are worth the potential casualties. Even without Israel, the Americans maintain an immense advantage in aerial operations over Iran; however, as I have stated before, this superiority does not translate to the maritime theater.

Patricia Marins

21,142 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran. Main points: Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel. Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots. Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas. Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles. Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel. Missiles & drones: 2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties. 2 rockets were launched from Gaza, both of which impacted an unspecified section of the Gaza buffer zone. They were either targeting IDF troops, or malfunctioned mid-flight. The IDF claimed to have intercepted 2 drones, launched by either Iran or factions in Iraq, in the area of Kiryat Shmona, northeastern Israel. Consequences: Israeli outlet Haaretz confirms that 30 Iranian ballistic missiles impacted military bases across Israel, including 10 in Tel Aviv. This was at around 7am local time in Israel, prior to more missile impacts in the north of the country. Iranian ballistic missiles impacted Haifa and Tamra, targeting the Haifa Oil Refinery Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted various targets around Tehran including a central oil depot. Footage shows what appears to be wreckage of a shot down Israeli F-16 somewhere over Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims that Iran shot down an Israeli F-35 fighter jet. Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s Bushehr Port. IDF spokesperson claimed that 7 IDF soldiers were “slightly” wounded Friday night in an Iranian ballistic missile strike on central Israel. Israeli airstrikes targeted the Yemen capital of Sana’a, reportedly killing the commander-in-chief of the Houthis. This remains unconfirmed. Al Jazeera, citing a senior Iranian official, stated that Iran is preparing for an “ongoing” confrontation with Israel, and will escalate its attacks. The head of Israel’s domestic intelligence announced his resignation, citing the failure to stop Hamas’ October 7 attacks. The IDF claimed to have killed the head of Iran’s military Intelligence, as well as the commander of the surface-to-surface missile sector. Israeli MDA spokesperson stated that 3 people have been killed and 172 others (directly) wounded. Iranian intelligence claims to have arrested 16 Mossad-affiliated collaborators and spies across Iran, The IAEA stated that 4 "critical" buildings were damaged at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center in central Iran, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. They added that no increase in off-site radiation is expected at the Natanz Nuclear enrichment facility after significant Israeli airstrikes, including with bunker-busting bombs. The current home-front guidelines remain in place for all of Israel, including a ban on all educational activities and large gatherings, except for essential services. Regional developments: Trump stated that “The war between Iran and Israel must end”. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that new military assets are being transferred to the Middle East, including aircraft, for “contingency support”. Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed that Iran will not participate in nuclear talks with the U.S. on Sunday, stating that “Participating in talks with accomplices of the aggressor is pointless.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariz expressed his “unwavering support” to Iran in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

AMK Mapping 🇳🇿

38,923 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

RC-135 Deployments Signal Imminent Attack: Myths and Realities of Iran's Military Power The RC-135 is a family of large reconnaissance aircraft operated by the ISAF. These jets are designed for ISR missions, providing near real-time data to military commanders and national leaders. The primary variant focuses on detecting, identifying, and geolocating electromagnetic signals, such as communications, radar emissions, and electronic warfare activities. Based on past experience, the early arrival of these aircraft often signals that an attack may be very close. But what about Iran, what capabilities does it actually have? There are many myths surrounding Iran's military power. Here are some key points: 1. Israel did not overfly Iran during the 12-day war This is implausible. Most part of the munitions used included bombs like the GBU-28 and GBU-31, both with ranges under 25 km, which suggests they could only have been dropped from inside Iranian territory. 2. Iranian missiles have poor accuracy In 2025, several Iranian missiles were launched against targets in Erbil, Iraq, with excellent precision. During the 12-day war, Iran struck the Weizmann Institute and the Haifa refinery with high accuracy, as well as some Israeli launchers, all in an environment of heavy jamming. The truth is that Iranian missile accuracy depends on the model. Iran has missiles in its arsenal that are more than 15 years old, but there is no evidence that the precision of its modern anti-ship missiles is deficient. 3. Iranian air defenses are of very poor quality This cannot be stated with absolute certainty because they were never fully tested. Israel's ground sabotage operations were highly effective, successfully disabling radars and most short-range air defense systems. Iran does not keep its long- and medium-range air defenses permanently deployed, and consequently none of them were destroyed during the 12 days of war. 4. Iran has no radars capable of detecting stealth aircraft In 2024, Iranian radars locked onto Israeli F-35s while they were still over Iraqi territory. In 2025, Iranian-supplied radars integrated into missile batteries in Yemen also locked onto and fired at U.S. F-35s on multiple occasions, nearly downing one. 5. The high technology of U.S. ships and aircraft will paralyze Iranian weapons This would only happen if the Iranians turned their systems off, as reportedly occurred in the Venezuela case. So far, Iranian equipment has proven extremely resistant to interference. Shahed drones continue to operate accurately, and after years of Western efforts, they have not been successfully jammed. This will pose a major challenge for the Americans. 6. The U.S. Carrier Strike Group will easily crush the Iranian navy They would destroy Iran's large ships in minutes, but they would face enormous difficulty against mini-submarines, USVs, UAVs, UUVs, and fast attack craft equipped with missiles. In additional, the U.S. drones would not have complete freedom for target acquisition and would have to rely on LEO/ISR sats. Iran possesses drones like the Karrar, a jet-powered interceptor equipped with air-to-air missiles that can operate at 15,000 meters to deny U.S. drones freedom of action. The Israelis lost an unknown number of drones during the 12-day war, though losses were reported. Summary Does Iran have any advantage? At sea, against the current Carrier Strike Group and considering all of Iran's resources, I would say Iran holds an advantage, evidenced by factors such as missile range, number of containers, tubes, VLS cells, drones, mines, submarines, anti-ship missiles, and other assets. However, once the focus shifts from the sea to the air, the American advantage is overwhelming, both in satellite intelligence and in combat aviation. And this is the type of war the Americans know best.

Patricia Marins

30,566 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

What Iran just did to Israel is nothing short of an unprecedented humiliation. For the second time in the same day, Iranian missiles targeted Israel, destroying government and military buildings as well as secret installations. But it didn’t stop there. Iranian cyber units hacked into the settlers’ public surveillance cameras and were watching them live on screen while bombing them inside their homes. These Iranian strikes have become devastating and highly dangerous. Everything is in chaos, and no one can grasp how Iran has achieved such power and precision in its attacks. The Iron Dome is failing, unable to intercept most of the incoming missiles. So what happened exactly? Here’s a quick breakdown of how things got to this point. Just about two hours ago, Iran launched a new missile salvo that resulted in one of the most precise and dangerous strikes so far. The strike hit an area known as "Paris Square" in the occupied city of Haifa. This area includes the famous Sail Tower, the tallest building in the city, located near the rabbinical court and other important government complexes. What many people don’t know is that the tower is not just an administrative structure. It’s a central hub that manages the entire northern region of the Israeli entity. Inside are offices for the Ministries of Interior, Health, Education, and Justice, along with branches of the Tax Authority, Housing Ministry, and Civil Registry. It’s also only about 700 meters from the Haifa port. In other words, this building is the backbone of Israel’s northern administrative system. According to the (IRGC), the buildings targeted weren’t just government offices, they also housed concealed military command and control centers (C2 sites). Iran had been tracking this area and hit them with a direct, precise strike. So far, Israeli media has confirmed around 27 injuries from the attack, as the building was occupied at the time. The mayor of Haifa also confirmed that two strategic sites were hit, validating the significance of the target. And it doesn’t stop there. In this same wave of strikes, and in direct retaliation for Israel’s recent bombing of Iran’s national broadcasting center live on air, Iran hit the building of Israeli Channel 14, which it had previously threatened to target. According to news sources, the strike successfully hit its mark. Now here’s what surprised Israel's axis of evil. Iran’s strikes were never random. Yet, they are now focused on highly strategic targets such as command centers, government buildings, ports, and critical infrastructure. This new precision is the result of an intense cyber war raging between the two states. Since the start of the war, a massive cyber alliance has formed, bringing together hackers from Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan. They’re battling against Israel’s cyber warfare teams and their Western allies. Iran’s coalition has already caused severe disruptions to Israel’s electronic infrastructure. This Iranian cyber alliance is now penetrating highly sensitive systems, and there are (unconfirmed) reports that they may have infiltrated Zionist Israel’s air defense codes. Supporting this claim is the fact that more missiles than ever before are now breaching Israeli defenses. A Bloomberg report (linked in the thread) revealed that Iran successfully hacked into public and civilian surveillance cameras across the occupied territories. They are using this access to instantly assess the results of their strikes and update targeting coordinates in real-time. This led Israel’s former deputy head of cybersecurity to publicly urge citizens to either shut off or immediately change the passwords to their surveillance cameras, warning that Iran is now using them to monitor internal activity and track strike zones. Continue👇🏻

Marwa Osman || مروة عثمان

102,062 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

IRAN: What about China and Russia? Certainly they’re not going to provide much kinetic support, but they do not want to see the regime fall. Are either of them providing any support? Israel has secured protection from both the Americans and the Russians, yet it remains poorly regarded by the Chinese. The Russians delivered MiG-29s, some EW systems, and a few helicopters, but to this day, they are postponing the delivery of more modern aircraft. Tel Aviv and Moscow maintain a very strong connection forged by the Soviet diaspora; today, roughly 20% of Israeli households speak Russian. The Chinese, for their part, have raised suspicions regarding the supply of radars and intelligence, but they are proven to be using satellites to photograph and publicly expose American military assets online - a clear demonstration of their involvement and power. This means that, unlike during the 12-day war, Iranian forces will now have direct satellite support. Ironically or not, China’s role in intelligence with Iran appears to mirror exactly the U.S. role with Ukraine. Regarding rumors of Iran receiving S-400s, there is zero evidence of this, and based on Putin’s statements, I do not believe they will proceed. Similarly, there is no visual evidence that the Chinese have provided long-range HQ-9B surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems or YLC-8B radars to Iran. Personally I believe it is possible that radars were delivered, though there is no confirmation. To date, there is no evidence of any Chinese cargo planes landing in Iran over the last few months. Most of the material delivered comes via Mahan Air Boeing 747s. There were also Cargolux flights, but those were also Boeing 747s, and for an HQ-9B system to be delivered, a much larger military airlifter would be required. Above all, these long-range defense systems would have been commissioned and showcased as a deterrent in a country on the brink of being attacked, which has not happened. However, Iran has invested heavily in revamping its own systems, as I reported previously. The Chinese also maintain a very close relationship with the UAE and the Saudis which, similar to the Russian position, limits the extent of massive support for Iran. Iran finds itself in a situation where its two main allies do not hesitate to provide political and intelligence support but remain reticent regarding direct military equipment. Nonetheless, this is a situation Iran has been used to for years, and it has been the primary driver for the development of its own military ecosystem.

Patricia Marins

36,416 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten