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“It could change, but currently it’s setting up to be a wipeout,” says Mark Halperin about the midterms. “That’s not a partisan view, or a media exaggeration. It is based on the polling of Republicans in lots of these states. And you may see states you’re not expecting at...

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“What we do know, as a snapshot of where we are right now in the polling, Republicans will lose a lot of seats in the House and today, I think, would lose the Senate— not Texas, but they’d lose Iowa and Ohio,” says Mark Halperin about the November midterms. “Based on the polling that I’ve seen, they would today. Now there’s plenty of time. Things could change. But right now it would be a wipeout, based on what I’ve seen.” #midterms2026 #Republicans #Democrats Kevin Walling 2WAY
9:08

“What we do know, as a snapshot of where we are right now in the polling, Republicans will lose a lot of seats in the House and today, I think, would lose the Senate— not Texas, but they’d lose Iowa and Ohio,” says Mark Halperin about the November midterms. “Based on the polling that I’ve seen, they would today. Now there’s plenty of time. Things could change. But right now it would be a wipeout, based on what I’ve seen.” #midterms2026 #Republicans #Democrats Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“The Republican Party is in a heap of trouble, potentially,” says Mark Halperin, citing new data points. “The midterms… could be a blue bloodbath in November. There’s plenty of time for things to change… but this could be a nightmare. They could lose control of the Senate. You’ve never heard me say that. I’ve said just the opposite. They could lose more than 30 House seats. They could lose governors’ races no one’s expecting them to lose.” L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“The Republican Party is in a heap of trouble, potentially,” says Mark Halperin, citing new data points. “The midterms… could be a blue bloodbath in November. There’s plenty of time for things to change… but this could be a nightmare. They could lose control of the Senate. You’ve never heard me say that. I’ve said just the opposite. They could lose more than 30 House seats. They could lose governors’ races no one’s expecting them to lose.” L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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Democrats’ opposition to the SAVE Act’s voter identification requirements “makes it sound like their voters are dumb or incompetent, or incapable of doing the basics,” says L A R R Y. “Or here’s the upside: It makes it sound like Democrats want to cheat. Could be one or the other.” #SAVEAct #Democrats Mark Halperin Kevin Walling 2WAY
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Democrats’ opposition to the SAVE Act’s voter identification requirements “makes it sound like their voters are dumb or incompetent, or incapable of doing the basics,” says L A R R Y. “Or here’s the upside: It makes it sound like Democrats want to cheat. Could be one or the other.” #SAVEAct #Democrats Mark Halperin Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“If you haven’t read it already, you should,” says Mark Halperin about a New York Times opinion piece by David Plouffe, the Democratic political strategist. The piece, as Mark describes it, argues that “because of demographic changes in the states, the Electoral College and the Senate are getting harder for Democrats to win.” #Democrats L A R R Y 2WAY
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“If you haven’t read it already, you should,” says Mark Halperin about a New York Times opinion piece by David Plouffe, the Democratic political strategist. The piece, as Mark describes it, argues that “because of demographic changes in the states, the Electoral College and the Senate are getting harder for Democrats to win.” #Democrats L A R R Y 2WAY

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“People should not rule out that because of the redistricting, the math makes it possible for the Republicans to keep the majority,” says Mark Halperin. Says L A R R Y, “I’m looking at it as 50/50 right now. The climate is bad right now for Republicans, as it always is historically. But the terrain has gotten so much better.” #midterms Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“People should not rule out that because of the redistricting, the math makes it possible for the Republicans to keep the majority,” says Mark Halperin. Says L A R R Y, “I’m looking at it as 50/50 right now. The climate is bad right now for Republicans, as it always is historically. But the terrain has gotten so much better.” #midterms Kevin Walling 2WAY

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Mike Johnson, L A R R Y says, told him that ahead of the midterms, “unlike Newt Gingrich’s Contract for America, we’re offering voters a ‘contrast in America.’ And every time Democrats have a chance to nominate a candidate, they have a choice between normal and crazy. And they’re picking crazy.” Mark Halperin Kevin Walling Steve Elmendorf 2WAY
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Mike Johnson, L A R R Y says, told him that ahead of the midterms, “unlike Newt Gingrich’s Contract for America, we’re offering voters a ‘contrast in America.’ And every time Democrats have a chance to nominate a candidate, they have a choice between normal and crazy. And they’re picking crazy.” Mark Halperin Kevin Walling Steve Elmendorf 2WAY

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.Mark Halperin has a warning for Republicans who “want to whistle past the graveyard.” Says Mark, “I’m not going to reach any conclusions until I see how James Blair spends $1 billion-plus. But right now I hear regularly from sober, experienced Republican strategists who are doing midterm races, who are very bearish on what’s going on. If you think that having more money in 2026 is dispositive in an election where the Republican has more money, it’s not... If you think saying, ‘I’m experienced, I’m the chairman of a powerful committee’ is dispositive, it’s not. If you think a district or a state having voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2024 is dispositive, it’s not. Democrats could win well more than the four Senate seats they need to take the majority. I’m not predicting it, but they could.” Republicans Democrats L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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.Mark Halperin has a warning for Republicans who “want to whistle past the graveyard.” Says Mark, “I’m not going to reach any conclusions until I see how James Blair spends $1 billion-plus. But right now I hear regularly from sober, experienced Republican strategists who are doing midterm races, who are very bearish on what’s going on. If you think that having more money in 2026 is dispositive in an election where the Republican has more money, it’s not... If you think saying, ‘I’m experienced, I’m the chairman of a powerful committee’ is dispositive, it’s not. If you think a district or a state having voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump in 2024 is dispositive, it’s not. Democrats could win well more than the four Senate seats they need to take the majority. I’m not predicting it, but they could.” Republicans Democrats L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“Over the weekend there were not one, not two, but three stories about Ken Martin, the chair of the DNC. He threw a phone, allegedly, and took out a mortgage on the building,” says Mark Halperin. “He’s afraid of leaking. He’s paranoid. There’s nothing more damaging for somebody in a story about how much they hate leaks, that has more leaks in it… It’s hugely important because it’s occupying the Democrats. And it’s an extraordinary act to have all this leaking, to try to get the guy to go less than 100 days before the midterms.” Ken Martin Democrats L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“Over the weekend there were not one, not two, but three stories about Ken Martin, the chair of the DNC. He threw a phone, allegedly, and took out a mortgage on the building,” says Mark Halperin. “He’s afraid of leaking. He’s paranoid. There’s nothing more damaging for somebody in a story about how much they hate leaks, that has more leaks in it… It’s hugely important because it’s occupying the Democrats. And it’s an extraordinary act to have all this leaking, to try to get the guy to go less than 100 days before the midterms.” Ken Martin Democrats L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“It’s one thing to stand up to them if they say things that are anti-Semitic or anti-Israel or pro Hamas,” says Mark Halperin about how Democrats are dealing with the Democratic Socialists. “But who’s going to stand up to them when they say, ‘let’s pack the Supreme Court?’ Or who’s going to stand up when they say, ‘let’s get rid of the filibuster?’” Democrats DSA L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“It’s one thing to stand up to them if they say things that are anti-Semitic or anti-Israel or pro Hamas,” says Mark Halperin about how Democrats are dealing with the Democratic Socialists. “But who’s going to stand up to them when they say, ‘let’s pack the Supreme Court?’ Or who’s going to stand up when they say, ‘let’s get rid of the filibuster?’” Democrats DSA L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“I think Republicans have the wind at their back now... I think they made it through the tough part,” says L A R R Y. Polymarket traders on Thursday morning put the odds at 53 percent that the GOP will keep the Senate, while the Democrats are at 48%. “I would think that… by October 1st, it’s going to increase,” Larry says. Mark Halperin Kevin Walling Polymarket 2WAY
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“I think Republicans have the wind at their back now... I think they made it through the tough part,” says L A R R Y. Polymarket traders on Thursday morning put the odds at 53 percent that the GOP will keep the Senate, while the Democrats are at 48%. “I would think that… by October 1st, it’s going to increase,” Larry says. Mark Halperin Kevin Walling Polymarket 2WAY

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“Haley Stevens, who in Michigan is the big favorite of the establishment, and probably has the best chance to win a general election against Mike Rogers, was booed at the state party convention,” says Mark Halperin about Stevens, a Democrat in a key 2026 Senate race. Says L A R R Y, “it should be noted that Stevens was booed because of her support of Israel. That’s still an issue in all of those campaigns you just mentioned for Democrats.” Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“Haley Stevens, who in Michigan is the big favorite of the establishment, and probably has the best chance to win a general election against Mike Rogers, was booed at the state party convention,” says Mark Halperin about Stevens, a Democrat in a key 2026 Senate race. Says L A R R Y, “it should be noted that Stevens was booed because of her support of Israel. That’s still an issue in all of those campaigns you just mentioned for Democrats.” Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“If Republican politicians are smart, this is actually a net positive right now,” says L A R R Y, about the Fauci hearing. “It’s the Fauci thing. I don’t think Democrats and people in the media really understand exactly how people still feel dissatisfied about not getting answers or explanations as to how this happened.” Mark Halperin Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“If Republican politicians are smart, this is actually a net positive right now,” says L A R R Y, about the Fauci hearing. “It’s the Fauci thing. I don’t think Democrats and people in the media really understand exactly how people still feel dissatisfied about not getting answers or explanations as to how this happened.” Mark Halperin Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“I just I just think it’s far from a sure thing that he’ll run,” says Mark Halperin about JD Vance and 2028. “And it’s the same thing as when I say that Gavin Newsom might not run because of his kids. People call me cynical and stupid, but just watching the Vances, their being a young family — and knowing he could run in eight years, 20 years — do you think it’s a sure thing he’s going to run? Or he might not?” Kevin Walling L A R R Y 2WAY
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“I just I just think it’s far from a sure thing that he’ll run,” says Mark Halperin about JD Vance and 2028. “And it’s the same thing as when I say that Gavin Newsom might not run because of his kids. People call me cynical and stupid, but just watching the Vances, their being a young family — and knowing he could run in eight years, 20 years — do you think it’s a sure thing he’s going to run? Or he might not?” Kevin Walling L A R R Y 2WAY

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“If you talk to any Republican working your race in a battleground state — House or Senate race, battleground district or state — the president’s poll numbers are horrendous,” says Mark Halperin. “They’re horrendous. Now, the election’s not today. But there’s a reason why Democrats are so giddy. And Democrats, as Haley Barbour would say, ‘need to keep the main thing, the main thing,’ and the main thing is still unhappiness over the economy.” L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“If you talk to any Republican working your race in a battleground state — House or Senate race, battleground district or state — the president’s poll numbers are horrendous,” says Mark Halperin. “They’re horrendous. Now, the election’s not today. But there’s a reason why Democrats are so giddy. And Democrats, as Haley Barbour would say, ‘need to keep the main thing, the main thing,’ and the main thing is still unhappiness over the economy.” L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“It's ‘ZDS’ that is the most troubling thing to me, Zionist Derangement Syndrome and the Democrats,” says Matty, a 2WAY community member in Los Angeles. “That seems to be the litmus test, and the hill they’re willing to die on. And all the extremism seems to go back to that. And it seems that Trump’s alliance with Bibi only hurts the Jews here at home, like myself.” Mark Halperin L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“It's ‘ZDS’ that is the most troubling thing to me, Zionist Derangement Syndrome and the Democrats,” says Matty, a 2WAY community member in Los Angeles. “That seems to be the litmus test, and the hill they’re willing to die on. And all the extremism seems to go back to that. And it seems that Trump’s alliance with Bibi only hurts the Jews here at home, like myself.” Mark Halperin L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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“Remember, if the DNC had not rigged it, Bernie Sanders would have been the nominee in ’16 and ’20,” says Mark Halperin. “And in ’24, we had an incumbent. So the sample space of the last three elections suggests it’s going to be hard for someone who’s not in the Sanders wing to be the nominee, unless the DNC rigs it again.” Bernie Sanders Rahm Emanuel L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY
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“Remember, if the DNC had not rigged it, Bernie Sanders would have been the nominee in ’16 and ’20,” says Mark Halperin. “And in ’24, we had an incumbent. So the sample space of the last three elections suggests it’s going to be hard for someone who’s not in the Sanders wing to be the nominee, unless the DNC rigs it again.” Bernie Sanders Rahm Emanuel L A R R Y Kevin Walling 2WAY

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