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It was an honour to host the first ever public dialogue between David Deutsch (David Deutsch) and Steven Pinker (Steven Pinker). They are longstanding admirers of each other's work. I view Steve's defence of the Enlightenment as more empirical, whereas David's is built more on first principles. But beyond...

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Joseph Noel Walker

13,030 subscribers

111,747 views • 2 years ago •via X (Twitter)

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Joseph Noel Walker2 years ago

YouTube: Apple Podcasts: Spotify: Transcript:

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Aaron Stupple2 years ago

@DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Phenomenal work Joseph!

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CoinStad2 years ago

What explains the Great stagnation TL;DR Steven: wokism David: "the science is settled" thinking wokism sacrifices the continuous search for truth for racial equity. science is settled thinking comes from a fear of offending the person who spoke a potentially wrong theory my own take is that a large contributing factor is because the money is broken. As they mention the stagnation starts in 1970s. The gold standard was abandoned 1971. Today people are more focused on careers as they say. This is because of the uncertainty of their financial future as most highly intelligent people consciously or subconsciously noticed that their money lost so much value over time that they had to focus on value retention methods like stock picking or careering instead of just saving a bit of money and focusing on their field of science. This thinking permeates society since money is superordinate to culture. Culture is affected by the structure of the form of money or monetary system used in society. Why? Because money incentivizes people, i.e. it affects peoples behavior and a collection of behaviors is culture. When money is continuously leaking people need to spend time compensating for the leak until the leak is fixed. Money has been leaking value since 1971. With Bitcoin it is fixed. In Bitcoin we see a surge in philosophy, long term thinking, deeper reflections on topics. The great stagnation will end when Bitcoin or another sound money system takes over from the fiat experiment that started 52 years ago. looking forward to it.

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∞ Philonico ∞ℵ2 years ago

@DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Amazing, it's a lovely Christmas present, thank you very much,

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Christian Dean2 years ago

@ToKTeacher @DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Your original conversation with David Deutsch is one of my favourites. Thanks for another one

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Terry Winters2 years ago

@DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Such a great conversation, thanks!

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Longterm thinking2 years ago

@DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Thanks for this, excellent work. Thank you @DavidDeutschOxf for all you do to share and critique important ideas, it's very inspirational.

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Josh Leyshon2 years ago

@joewalkerpod @DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Brilliant Joe, thank you. Best Christmas present ever. Cannot wait to listen

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Audacious Denizen2 years ago

@DavidDeutschOxf @sapinker Christmas came early

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Hector Wetherell McNeill2 years ago

Joseph, Many congratulations on getting these two together and for your pertinent questions. An excellent contribution to X. Topics covered have been an interest of mine for many years but more related to the here and now where, for example, in economics there is a need for a reformantion in overall perceptions and theory so as to achieve a form of social, and yes, advance in knowledge enabling a renaissance in human action and wellbeing.

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himanshu

39,650 views • 1 month ago

New episode with Francis Fukuyama (Francis Fukuyama). While The End of History and the Last Man is arguably the most influential work in political science of the past half-century, I wanted to focus on one of Frank's lesser-known books: Our Posthuman Future. In that book, he considers biotech and its potential to usher in a new, post-human history. I check in to see how his views have evolved since it was published (2002), then ask him about AI and its potential to restart "History". The goal was to discuss topics that are important and on which Frank has spoken little until now. Frank also gives me a preview of his forthcoming book, and shares some ideas on delegation and state capacity. (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:00:41) - Are new biotechnologies restarting History? (0:03:52) - Why Fukuyama thinks life extension is a bad idea. (0:06:47) - Which biotechnology is most likely to drive transhumanism? (0:07:34) - Political orders are downstream of technology. (0:10:31) - Would Fukuyama have denied political rights to Denisovans or Neanderthals? (0:13:56) - Transhumanism and longevity's unintended consequences. (0:18:55) - Assortative mating vs. gene editing. (0:20:00) - How should we adjudicate disagreements between different sets of natural rights? (0:24:03) - How is Fukuyama thinking about AGI and ASI? (0:27:31) - Granting AIs political rights? (0:37:23) - Best political order for a society of non-thymotic AIs? (0:40:44) - Could an ASI design a better political order than liberal democracy for today's world? (0:44:08) - Why Asian cultures are more permissive of biotechnology. (0:47:04) - Do LLMs represent a victory of American soft power in China? (0:49:17) - If humanity is made economically redundant, where will megalothymia be channelled? (0:51:58) - Can Trump and Musk's relationship endure their mutual megalothymia? (0:53:23) - A future without work? Kojève's 1959 trip to Japan, & the early-modern landed gentry. (1:00:41) - Hegel vs. Kojève: wars after history? (1:02:26) - What more would have to happen for China to falsify the end of history thesis? (1:03:39) - What Fukuyama learned from having his thesis chronically misunderstood. (1:06:37) - Fukuyama's advice for public intellectuals who want sustainable careers. (1:08:52) - A sneak peek at Fukuyama's next book. (1:10:32) - Delegation in armies and bureaucracies. (1:15:48) - Why Fukuyama thinks DOGE was misguided. (1:17:53) - The relationship between talent, delegation and state capacity. Watch full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc. Transcript at my website jnwpod dot com. Enjoy!
1:19:25

New episode with Francis Fukuyama (Francis Fukuyama). While The End of History and the Last Man is arguably the most influential work in political science of the past half-century, I wanted to focus on one of Frank's lesser-known books: Our Posthuman Future. In that book, he considers biotech and its potential to usher in a new, post-human history. I check in to see how his views have evolved since it was published (2002), then ask him about AI and its potential to restart "History". The goal was to discuss topics that are important and on which Frank has spoken little until now. Frank also gives me a preview of his forthcoming book, and shares some ideas on delegation and state capacity. (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:00:41) - Are new biotechnologies restarting History? (0:03:52) - Why Fukuyama thinks life extension is a bad idea. (0:06:47) - Which biotechnology is most likely to drive transhumanism? (0:07:34) - Political orders are downstream of technology. (0:10:31) - Would Fukuyama have denied political rights to Denisovans or Neanderthals? (0:13:56) - Transhumanism and longevity's unintended consequences. (0:18:55) - Assortative mating vs. gene editing. (0:20:00) - How should we adjudicate disagreements between different sets of natural rights? (0:24:03) - How is Fukuyama thinking about AGI and ASI? (0:27:31) - Granting AIs political rights? (0:37:23) - Best political order for a society of non-thymotic AIs? (0:40:44) - Could an ASI design a better political order than liberal democracy for today's world? (0:44:08) - Why Asian cultures are more permissive of biotechnology. (0:47:04) - Do LLMs represent a victory of American soft power in China? (0:49:17) - If humanity is made economically redundant, where will megalothymia be channelled? (0:51:58) - Can Trump and Musk's relationship endure their mutual megalothymia? (0:53:23) - A future without work? Kojève's 1959 trip to Japan, & the early-modern landed gentry. (1:00:41) - Hegel vs. Kojève: wars after history? (1:02:26) - What more would have to happen for China to falsify the end of history thesis? (1:03:39) - What Fukuyama learned from having his thesis chronically misunderstood. (1:06:37) - Fukuyama's advice for public intellectuals who want sustainable careers. (1:08:52) - A sneak peek at Fukuyama's next book. (1:10:32) - Delegation in armies and bureaucracies. (1:15:48) - Why Fukuyama thinks DOGE was misguided. (1:17:53) - The relationship between talent, delegation and state capacity. Watch full episode on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, etc. Transcript at my website jnwpod dot com. Enjoy!

Joseph Noel Walker

15,483 views • 11 months ago

My conversation with David Deutsch (David Deutsch). David is the author of The Fabric of Reality and The Beginning of Infinity. He is known as the father of quantum computing for his contributions to the field. He is an advocate of Taking Children Seriously, a new, non-paternalistic view of children. Topics we discuss are well captured by the timestamps below. Links to YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and transcript in thread below. Timestamps: 0:22 - Happiness is a state of continually solving one’s problems 4:54 - Both free-will and the self exist 12:06 - The principle of optimism 17:28 - Any ultimate explanation is a bad explanation 20:22 - The origins of Taking Children Seriously 25:33 - Why children are the most coerced members in society 31:33 - Anarcho-capitalism
40:37

My conversation with David Deutsch (David Deutsch). David is the author of The Fabric of Reality and The Beginning of Infinity. He is known as the father of quantum computing for his contributions to the field. He is an advocate of Taking Children Seriously, a new, non-paternalistic view of children. Topics we discuss are well captured by the timestamps below. Links to YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and transcript in thread below. Timestamps: 0:22 - Happiness is a state of continually solving one’s problems 4:54 - Both free-will and the self exist 12:06 - The principle of optimism 17:28 - Any ultimate explanation is a bad explanation 20:22 - The origins of Taking Children Seriously 25:33 - Why children are the most coerced members in society 31:33 - Anarcho-capitalism

Arjun Khemani

470,645 views • 2 years ago

Here's my conversation with Roman Yampolskiy (Dr. Roman Yampolskiy), AI safety researcher who believes that the chance of AGI eventually destroying human civilization is 99.9999%. I will continue to chat with many AI researchers & engineers, most of whom put p(doom) at <20%, but it's important to balance those technical conversations by understanding the long-term existential risks of AI. This was a terrifying and fascinating discussion. It's here on X in full, and is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else. Links in comment. Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 2:20 - Existential risk of AGI 8:32 - Ikigai risk 16:44 - Suffering risk 20:19 - Timeline to AGI 24:51 - AGI turing test 30:14 - Yann LeCun and open source AI 43:06 - AI control 45:33 - Social engineering 48:06 - Fearmongering 57:57 - AI deception 1:04:30 - Verification 1:11:29 - Self-improving AI 1:23:42 - Pausing AI development 1:29:59 - AI Safety 1:39:43 - Current AI 1:45:05 - Simulation 1:52:24 - Aliens 1:53:57 - Human mind 2:00:17 - Neuralink 2:09:23 - Hope for the future 2:13:18 - Meaning of life
2:15:29

Here's my conversation with Roman Yampolskiy (Dr. Roman Yampolskiy), AI safety researcher who believes that the chance of AGI eventually destroying human civilization is 99.9999%. I will continue to chat with many AI researchers & engineers, most of whom put p(doom) at <20%, but it's important to balance those technical conversations by understanding the long-term existential risks of AI. This was a terrifying and fascinating discussion. It's here on X in full, and is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else. Links in comment. Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 2:20 - Existential risk of AGI 8:32 - Ikigai risk 16:44 - Suffering risk 20:19 - Timeline to AGI 24:51 - AGI turing test 30:14 - Yann LeCun and open source AI 43:06 - AI control 45:33 - Social engineering 48:06 - Fearmongering 57:57 - AI deception 1:04:30 - Verification 1:11:29 - Self-improving AI 1:23:42 - Pausing AI development 1:29:59 - AI Safety 1:39:43 - Current AI 1:45:05 - Simulation 1:52:24 - Aliens 1:53:57 - Human mind 2:00:17 - Neuralink 2:09:23 - Hope for the future 2:13:18 - Meaning of life

Lex Fridman

30,192,518 views • 2 years ago

No author has shaped my worldview more than Nassim Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb). I stumbled on The Black Swan eight years ago, then inhaled the rest of the Incerto. I've increasingly come to appreciate the importance of its ideas to prolonging the human story. Was an honour to speak with Nassim on the podcast. Hard to summarise our conversation, but the timestamps below capture the gist. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:55) - Heuristics for knowing when you're in Mediocristan versus Extremistan. (0:06:06) - Are certain tail exponents intrinsic? (0:10:30) - Why hasn't Universa's tail hedging strategy now been fully priced in? (0:11:52) - Does the power law distribution of startup returns mean VCs should concentrate their bets, or spray and pray? (0:15:20) - Nassim's 30-minute take on the field of behavioural economics. (0:48:57) - Nassim's 20-minute take on superforecasting. (1:11:03) - The Precautionary Principle and AI. (1:17:28) - What are LLMs doing? (1:23:10) - War, violence, & "the empirical mean is not the real mean". (1:39:17) - Covid, & how Western governments think about tail risk. (1:43:38) - What's the most important thing people in social science get wrong about correlation? (1:52:58) - How does Nassim explain the perspicacity of the Russian school of probability? (1:55:56) - Why doesn't Hayek's knowledge argument extend to prediction markets? (1:58:26) - If mean absolute deviation is a better measure than standard deviation, why has the latter become commonplace? (2:01:09) - Nassim's next book, and what he's up to at the moment.
2:02:58

No author has shaped my worldview more than Nassim Taleb (Nassim Nicholas Taleb). I stumbled on The Black Swan eight years ago, then inhaled the rest of the Incerto. I've increasingly come to appreciate the importance of its ideas to prolonging the human story. Was an honour to speak with Nassim on the podcast. Hard to summarise our conversation, but the timestamps below capture the gist. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:55) - Heuristics for knowing when you're in Mediocristan versus Extremistan. (0:06:06) - Are certain tail exponents intrinsic? (0:10:30) - Why hasn't Universa's tail hedging strategy now been fully priced in? (0:11:52) - Does the power law distribution of startup returns mean VCs should concentrate their bets, or spray and pray? (0:15:20) - Nassim's 30-minute take on the field of behavioural economics. (0:48:57) - Nassim's 20-minute take on superforecasting. (1:11:03) - The Precautionary Principle and AI. (1:17:28) - What are LLMs doing? (1:23:10) - War, violence, & "the empirical mean is not the real mean". (1:39:17) - Covid, & how Western governments think about tail risk. (1:43:38) - What's the most important thing people in social science get wrong about correlation? (1:52:58) - How does Nassim explain the perspicacity of the Russian school of probability? (1:55:56) - Why doesn't Hayek's knowledge argument extend to prediction markets? (1:58:26) - If mean absolute deviation is a better measure than standard deviation, why has the latter become commonplace? (2:01:09) - Nassim's next book, and what he's up to at the moment.

Joseph Noel Walker

577,821 views • 1 year ago

THE TRUTH ABOUT MARIJUANA! Know the risks of modern marijuana! Stefan Molyneux lays down the Truth About Marijuana, discussing the recent rise in use, and modern marijuana's risks of mental and physical damage, not just to yourself, but tp everyone around you. Sources: 0:00:00 The Truth About Marijuana 0:00:57 Definitions and Cannabis Basics 0:01:51 Rising Use in America 0:03:54 Heavy Use Surges 0:05:03 Age Trends and Youth Use 0:06:56 Young Adults and Seniors 0:08:27 Past-Month Use by Age 0:10:14 High School Use Declines 0:11:05 Adolescent Trends and COVID 0:12:42 Vaping and Cannabis Delivery 0:13:46 Gender Differences in Use 0:15:05 Racial Disparities in Usage 0:16:48 Heavy Use and ACEs 0:19:19 Childhood Trauma and Drug Use 0:22:38 Rising THC Potency 0:24:28 Concentrates and Ratios 0:26:06 Mental Illness History 0:27:46 Addiction and Psychosis 0:30:07 Psychosis Harms Families 0:33:01 THC and Brain Chemistry 0:34:41 Schizophrenia Consequences 0:37:14 Mental Health Risks 0:38:52 Medical Uses and Limits 0:41:13 Early Use Damages 0:42:56 ABCD Study Findings 0:44:31 IQ Decline and Income 0:48:36 Brain Function Changes 0:52:20 Heavy Use and Brain Activation 0:54:30 Cannabis and Cortisol 0:57:26 Hormones and Lung Damage 0:59:40 Smoking Damage on CT Scans 1:01:44 Vaping Risks and Injury 1:03:43 Marijuana Versus Alcohol 1:04:45 Driving and Workplace Dangers 1:07:53 Sexual and Fertility Risks 1:09:44 Pregnancy and Parenting 1:11:21 Legalization Effects 1:13:16 Legalization History 1:16:39 Funding and Politics 1:18:43 International Drug Treaties 1:21:06 Could We Have Known? 1:23:16 Final Takeaways 1:23:52 Childhood Trauma Revisited GET FREEDOMAIN MERCH! SUBSCRIBE TO ME ON X! Follow me on Youtube! GET MY NEW BOOK 'PEACEFUL PARENTING', THE INTERACTIVE PEACEFUL PARENTING AI, AND THE FULL AUDIOBOOK! Join the PREMIUM philosophy community on the web for free! Subscribers get 12 HOURS on the "Truth About the French Revolution," multiple interactive multi-lingual philosophy AIs trained on thousands of hours of my material - as well as AIs for Real-Time Relationships, Bitcoin, Peaceful Parenting, and Call-In Shows! You also receive private livestreams, HUNDREDS of exclusive premium shows, early release podcasts, the 22 Part History of Philosophers series and much more! See you soon!
1:26:56

THE TRUTH ABOUT MARIJUANA! Know the risks of modern marijuana! Stefan Molyneux lays down the Truth About Marijuana, discussing the recent rise in use, and modern marijuana's risks of mental and physical damage, not just to yourself, but tp everyone around you. Sources: 0:00:00 The Truth About Marijuana 0:00:57 Definitions and Cannabis Basics 0:01:51 Rising Use in America 0:03:54 Heavy Use Surges 0:05:03 Age Trends and Youth Use 0:06:56 Young Adults and Seniors 0:08:27 Past-Month Use by Age 0:10:14 High School Use Declines 0:11:05 Adolescent Trends and COVID 0:12:42 Vaping and Cannabis Delivery 0:13:46 Gender Differences in Use 0:15:05 Racial Disparities in Usage 0:16:48 Heavy Use and ACEs 0:19:19 Childhood Trauma and Drug Use 0:22:38 Rising THC Potency 0:24:28 Concentrates and Ratios 0:26:06 Mental Illness History 0:27:46 Addiction and Psychosis 0:30:07 Psychosis Harms Families 0:33:01 THC and Brain Chemistry 0:34:41 Schizophrenia Consequences 0:37:14 Mental Health Risks 0:38:52 Medical Uses and Limits 0:41:13 Early Use Damages 0:42:56 ABCD Study Findings 0:44:31 IQ Decline and Income 0:48:36 Brain Function Changes 0:52:20 Heavy Use and Brain Activation 0:54:30 Cannabis and Cortisol 0:57:26 Hormones and Lung Damage 0:59:40 Smoking Damage on CT Scans 1:01:44 Vaping Risks and Injury 1:03:43 Marijuana Versus Alcohol 1:04:45 Driving and Workplace Dangers 1:07:53 Sexual and Fertility Risks 1:09:44 Pregnancy and Parenting 1:11:21 Legalization Effects 1:13:16 Legalization History 1:16:39 Funding and Politics 1:18:43 International Drug Treaties 1:21:06 Could We Have Known? 1:23:16 Final Takeaways 1:23:52 Childhood Trauma Revisited GET FREEDOMAIN MERCH! SUBSCRIBE TO ME ON X! Follow me on Youtube! GET MY NEW BOOK 'PEACEFUL PARENTING', THE INTERACTIVE PEACEFUL PARENTING AI, AND THE FULL AUDIOBOOK! Join the PREMIUM philosophy community on the web for free! Subscribers get 12 HOURS on the "Truth About the French Revolution," multiple interactive multi-lingual philosophy AIs trained on thousands of hours of my material - as well as AIs for Real-Time Relationships, Bitcoin, Peaceful Parenting, and Call-In Shows! You also receive private livestreams, HUNDREDS of exclusive premium shows, early release podcasts, the 22 Part History of Philosophers series and much more! See you soon!

Freedomain - with Stefan Molyneux, MA

12,529 views • 8 days ago

Jorge Masvidal’s Prediction For UFC 302 / Fighting McGregor?! | TSS | EP.287 0:00:00 - Intro 0:00:20 - Montana Trip Recap 0:01:13 - Dumb & Dumber To 0:03:45 - Fast Food Challenge 0:07:33 - Schmitty Goes On A Date 0:08:50 - Suga & Tim’s Chickens 0:10:00 - Tammy Might Be Preg.. 0:11:25 - Does Dustin Guillotine Islam? 0:15:04 - Strickland Vs Coasta Prediction 0:17:46 - Tim’s New Tesla 0:18:55 - McGregor Explains Comments Towards Suga 0:21:10 - Suga’s Warehouse Upgrades 0:23:53 - Suga Announces Next Fight 0:26:08 - Schmitty Vs Merab Beef 0:27:27 - Private Jet Scare Story 0:28:40 - Stoicism Levels 0:32:12 - Upcoming Business Trips 0:34:16 - Types Of Humor 0:36:50 - Do You Care What People Think About You? 0:38:55 - Ozempic For Weight Loss 0:40:10 - First Neuralink Patient 0:41:50 - Suga Meeting Masvidal For The First Time 0:42:42 - Jobin TV Show Update 0:44:55 - Chito Vera Vs Figgy Prediction 0:45:55 - Ian Gary Vs MVP Prediction 0:48:25 - Everyone Sings For Each Other 0:49:00 - Suga Visiting His Home He Grew Up In 0:52:32 - Tim Debates W/ His Mom 0:54:45 - Schmitty Has A Flare Up 0:55:44 - Henry Cejudo Turning Down Fights 0:56:55 - Movie Night 0:58:24 - Welcome Jorge Masvidal 0:59:00 - Boxing Camp For Nate Diaz 1:01:07 - Difference From Prepping For An MMA Fight 1:02:28 - How Masvidal’s Diet Has Changed With Age 1:03:50 - The Biggest Fear Going Into A Fight 1:05:12 - The Risk Of Going For A Flying Knee Against Ben Askren 1:06:55 - Downtown During Camp 1:08:10 - Studying Boxing Film 1:09:50 - Fighting Jake Paul In MMA 1:10:55 - Jorge’s Prediction For Dustin Vs Islam 1:12:55 - Masvidal Vs McGregor? 1:13:30 - Chael Vs Anderson Boxing Prediction 1:14:35 - Miami Lifestyle 1:15:33 - Masvidal’s Biggest Regret In His Fight Career 1:19:20 - Masvidal Gives Suga Advice 1:22:30 - Rumors On Merab Fight 1:24:00 - Chandler Vs McGregor Prediction
1:26:28

Jorge Masvidal’s Prediction For UFC 302 / Fighting McGregor?! | TSS | EP.287 0:00:00 - Intro 0:00:20 - Montana Trip Recap 0:01:13 - Dumb & Dumber To 0:03:45 - Fast Food Challenge 0:07:33 - Schmitty Goes On A Date 0:08:50 - Suga & Tim’s Chickens 0:10:00 - Tammy Might Be Preg.. 0:11:25 - Does Dustin Guillotine Islam? 0:15:04 - Strickland Vs Coasta Prediction 0:17:46 - Tim’s New Tesla 0:18:55 - McGregor Explains Comments Towards Suga 0:21:10 - Suga’s Warehouse Upgrades 0:23:53 - Suga Announces Next Fight 0:26:08 - Schmitty Vs Merab Beef 0:27:27 - Private Jet Scare Story 0:28:40 - Stoicism Levels 0:32:12 - Upcoming Business Trips 0:34:16 - Types Of Humor 0:36:50 - Do You Care What People Think About You? 0:38:55 - Ozempic For Weight Loss 0:40:10 - First Neuralink Patient 0:41:50 - Suga Meeting Masvidal For The First Time 0:42:42 - Jobin TV Show Update 0:44:55 - Chito Vera Vs Figgy Prediction 0:45:55 - Ian Gary Vs MVP Prediction 0:48:25 - Everyone Sings For Each Other 0:49:00 - Suga Visiting His Home He Grew Up In 0:52:32 - Tim Debates W/ His Mom 0:54:45 - Schmitty Has A Flare Up 0:55:44 - Henry Cejudo Turning Down Fights 0:56:55 - Movie Night 0:58:24 - Welcome Jorge Masvidal 0:59:00 - Boxing Camp For Nate Diaz 1:01:07 - Difference From Prepping For An MMA Fight 1:02:28 - How Masvidal’s Diet Has Changed With Age 1:03:50 - The Biggest Fear Going Into A Fight 1:05:12 - The Risk Of Going For A Flying Knee Against Ben Askren 1:06:55 - Downtown During Camp 1:08:10 - Studying Boxing Film 1:09:50 - Fighting Jake Paul In MMA 1:10:55 - Jorge’s Prediction For Dustin Vs Islam 1:12:55 - Masvidal Vs McGregor? 1:13:30 - Chael Vs Anderson Boxing Prediction 1:14:35 - Miami Lifestyle 1:15:33 - Masvidal’s Biggest Regret In His Fight Career 1:19:20 - Masvidal Gives Suga Advice 1:22:30 - Rumors On Merab Fight 1:24:00 - Chandler Vs McGregor Prediction

Sean O'Malley

118,091 views • 2 years ago

A crowd of Sydney listeners and I sat down with economist Peter Tulip (Peter Tulip) to talk about Australia's housing crisis. I was really happy with how this conversation turned out: we went into substantial detail and broke new ground. We chat about: - critiques of both NIMBY and YIMBY thinking - general theories of why constricted housing supply afflicts the Anglosphere in particular - what it would actually take to solve the housing crisis via the supply side - and much more Links below. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:03:01) - Is there a general theory as to why constricted housing supply is a problem for the Anglosphere in particular? (0:04:21) - What happened in the 1970s that meant zoning regulations started becoming a problem around then? (0:06:38) - What motivates NIMBYs? (0:11:58) - Which planning restrictions does Peter want to remove? (0:15:10) - How much would house prices fall if we removed the bad planning restrictions? (0:22:30) - How much worse can the price-to-income ratio get? What is the upper bound? (0:24:09) - Are YIMBYs overstating the productivity case for urban densification? (0:27:23) - YIMBYs underrate aesthetics and architecture. (0:37:01) - How should we think about the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount? (0:41:15) - What is Peter's policy goal? Should house prices fall, or should growth merely slow? (0:42:42) - It would take 10 to 20 years to bring prices down by 40% through increased housing supply. (0:43:37) - If we removed all bad planning restrictions, how quickly could we get a 10 to 20% increase in supply? (0:46:03) - Is "increasing housing supply" a politically realistic way to solve the housing crisis? (0:48:35) - Housing is how the middle class gets rich in Australia. What is Peter's transition plan? (0:53:20) - Why haven't we tried anything like the Hawke government's Accord, but for housing? (1:01:43) - Audience Q&A.
1:44:03

A crowd of Sydney listeners and I sat down with economist Peter Tulip (Peter Tulip) to talk about Australia's housing crisis. I was really happy with how this conversation turned out: we went into substantial detail and broke new ground. We chat about: - critiques of both NIMBY and YIMBY thinking - general theories of why constricted housing supply afflicts the Anglosphere in particular - what it would actually take to solve the housing crisis via the supply side - and much more Links below. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:03:01) - Is there a general theory as to why constricted housing supply is a problem for the Anglosphere in particular? (0:04:21) - What happened in the 1970s that meant zoning regulations started becoming a problem around then? (0:06:38) - What motivates NIMBYs? (0:11:58) - Which planning restrictions does Peter want to remove? (0:15:10) - How much would house prices fall if we removed the bad planning restrictions? (0:22:30) - How much worse can the price-to-income ratio get? What is the upper bound? (0:24:09) - Are YIMBYs overstating the productivity case for urban densification? (0:27:23) - YIMBYs underrate aesthetics and architecture. (0:37:01) - How should we think about the impact of negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount? (0:41:15) - What is Peter's policy goal? Should house prices fall, or should growth merely slow? (0:42:42) - It would take 10 to 20 years to bring prices down by 40% through increased housing supply. (0:43:37) - If we removed all bad planning restrictions, how quickly could we get a 10 to 20% increase in supply? (0:46:03) - Is "increasing housing supply" a politically realistic way to solve the housing crisis? (0:48:35) - Housing is how the middle class gets rich in Australia. What is Peter's transition plan? (0:53:20) - Why haven't we tried anything like the Hawke government's Accord, but for housing? (1:01:43) - Audience Q&A.

Joseph Noel Walker

17,173 views • 1 year ago

.Jacob Trefethen runs the science program at Open Philanthropy, directing about $100m/year in philanthropic funding. For New Science, we ended up talking about academia, peer review, grant-making; and also about love, the meaning of life, and our personal histories. Enjoy! Timestamps 0:00:00 - Introduction 0:01:11 - On Open Philanthropy's decision process 0:06:48 - Is it possible to make expected value calculations for basic scientific research? 0:16:27 - Non-profit funding vs for-profit funding 0:17:19 - Why the NIH rejects grants 0:19:39 - Jacob's "PhD" working side-by-side with biochemists for 5 years 0:25:22 - Today's system of federal funding are not supporting generalists 0:28:34 - How will AI affect the pace of scientific progress? 0:41:53 - AI Baumol Disease 0:54:41 - Can AI speed up aging research? 0:58:20 - The wisest people Jacob & Alexey know 1:13:31 - The future of science in academia 1:19:26 - How Open Philanthropy uses neglectedness to make funding trade-offs 1:35:16 - Jacob's advice for a talented 20 year old watching this 1:45:24 - Jacob's favorite joke
1:47:57

.Jacob Trefethen runs the science program at Open Philanthropy, directing about $100m/year in philanthropic funding. For New Science, we ended up talking about academia, peer review, grant-making; and also about love, the meaning of life, and our personal histories. Enjoy! Timestamps 0:00:00 - Introduction 0:01:11 - On Open Philanthropy's decision process 0:06:48 - Is it possible to make expected value calculations for basic scientific research? 0:16:27 - Non-profit funding vs for-profit funding 0:17:19 - Why the NIH rejects grants 0:19:39 - Jacob's "PhD" working side-by-side with biochemists for 5 years 0:25:22 - Today's system of federal funding are not supporting generalists 0:28:34 - How will AI affect the pace of scientific progress? 0:41:53 - AI Baumol Disease 0:54:41 - Can AI speed up aging research? 0:58:20 - The wisest people Jacob & Alexey know 1:13:31 - The future of science in academia 1:19:26 - How Open Philanthropy uses neglectedness to make funding trade-offs 1:35:16 - Jacob's advice for a talented 20 year old watching this 1:45:24 - Jacob's favorite joke

Alexey Guzey

23,458 views • 1 year ago