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It would require a great philosopher and historian to explain the causes of the famous Seven Years' War, in which Europe was engaged, and in which Barry's regiment was now on its way to take part. Let it suffice to say that England and Prussia were allies... and at... show more

James Hancock

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85,958 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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This is hands-down the best explanation I've heard on why sanctions on Russia backfired, and why they were never going to succeed in the first place. By economist James K. Galbraith, professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Best quote of his explanation: "This is a situation in which the sanctions were imposed by one important sector of the world economy which then cut itself off from resources that it needs - and that's particularly true of Western Europe - in return for cutting Russia off from various things that Russia doesn't really need." Second best quote: "If you go back to the period before the introduction of the sanctions [...] the Russian economy was very heavily colonized by Western firms. That was true in automobiles, it was true in aircrafts, it was true in everything from fast food restaurants to big box stores. Western firms were present all throughout the Russian economy. A great many of them [...] either chose to exit Russia or were pressured to exit Russia after early 2022. So on what terms did they leave? Well, they were required, if they were leaving permanently, to sell their capital equipment, their factories and so forth, to let's say a Russian business which would get a loan from Russian banks or maybe have other sources of financing, at a very favorable price for the Russians. So effectively a lot of capital wealth, which was partly owned by the West, has been transferred to Russian ownership. And you now have an economy which is moving forward and has the advantage compared to Europe of relatively low resource costs because Russia is a great producer of resources, oil and gas and fertilizer and food stuff and so forth. And so while the Europeans are paying maybe twice in Germany what they were paying for energy, the Russians are not, they're paying perhaps less than they were paying before the war. So again I characterize the effect of the sanctions, in fact as being in certain respects a gift to the Russian economy. And this is, I think, quite different from what the authors of the sanctions expected. [...] And the essence of the situation is this would not have happened without the sanctions. You could have had the war, and it would have gone pretty much as it has gone. But the Russian government in 2022 was in no position to force the exit of Western firms. It didn't want to, wouldn't have done that. It was in no position to force its oligarchs to choose between Russia and the West. It didn't wish to do that. These choices were imposed by the West, and the results were actually, in many respects, favorable to the long-term independent development of the Russian Federation's economy."

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🚨🚨🚨WAKE UP EUROPE 🛎️🛎️🛎️ If You Still Believe That Russia Started This Conflict in 2022, Then You Are Ignorant, or Brainwashed. The END to NATO. The Ukraine war, which I will argue was provoked by the West and especially the United States. This war will be settled on the battlefield where the Russians are likely to win an ugly victory. Settling the war diplomatically is not possible because the opposing sides have irreconcilable differences. Instead, it's likely to be, as I said, an ugly victory, where Russia ends up occupying somewhere between 20 to 40% of pre-2014 Ukraine, while Ukraine ends up as a dysfunctional rump state covering the territory that Russia does not conquer. Ukraine has effectively been wrecked. It has already lost a substantial portion of its territory and is likely to lose more land before the fighting stops. Russian leaders recognized that the Ukrainian army, which was larger than the invasion force, I want to emphasize this, the Ukrainian army was larger than the Russian invasion force, it was armed and trained by NATO, and it was becoming a de facto member of NATO. Immediately after the war began, Russia, not Ukraine, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vivendi between the two countries. This move is directly at odds with the claim that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and make it part of greater Russia. Negotiations between Kiev and Moscow began in Belarus just four days, four days after the Russian invasion. And that Belarus track was eventually replaced by an Israeli as well as an Istanbul track. The available evidence indicates that the Russians were negotiating seriously and were not interested in absorbing Ukrainian territory, save for Crimea, which they had annexed in 2014, and possibly the Donbass region. The negotiations ended when the Ukrainians, with prodding from Britain and the United States, walked away from the negotiations, which were making good progress at the time. The Russians did not walk away from the negotiations. In the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis. On 17 October 2021, remember the war begins February 2022, this is 17 December 2021, Putin sends letters to both President Biden and to NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg proposing a solution to the crisis based on a written guarantee that does three things. Number one, Ukraine would not join NATO, number two, no offensive weapons would be stationed near Russia's borders, and number three, NATO troops and equipment moved into Eastern Europe since 1997 would be moved back to Western Europe. Whatever one thinks of the feasibility of reaching a bargain based on Putin's opening demands, it shows he was trying to avoid war. The United States, on the other hand, refused to negotiate with Putin. It appears it was not interested in avoiding war. In fact, the United States and its European allies provoked the war. Bringing Kiev into the European Union and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine, you all remember the Orange Revolution, which was designed to make Ukraine a pro-Western liberal democracy, are the other two prongs of the policy. Russian leaders across the board said repeatedly before the war. that they considered NATO expansion into Ukraine to be an existential threat that had to be eliminated. Putin made numerous public statements laying out this line of argument before 24 February, 2022. Other leaders, including the defense minister, the foreign minister, the deputy foreign minister, and Moscow's ambassador to Washington also emphasized the centrality of NATO expansion for causing the crisis over Ukraine. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, made this point succinctly at a press conference on 14 January, 2022. Lavrov says "'The key to everything is the guarantee "'that NATO will not expand eastward.' Substantial number of influential and highly regarded individuals in the West recognized before the war that NATO expansion, especially into Ukraine, would be seen by Russian leaders as a mortal threat and eventually would lead to disaster. William Burns, who was recently Joe Biden's head of the CIA, but he was the American ambassador to Moscow in April 2008 when the decision was made to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, wrote a very famous memo that I'm sure some of you are familiar with to then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. This is a quite remarkable memo, and I'm going to quote extensively from it. "'Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest "'of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin. "'In more than two and a half years of conversations "'with key Russian players, from knuckle draggers "'in the dark recesses of the Kremlin "'to Putin's sharpest liberal critics, "'I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine and NATO "'as anything other than a direct challenge "'to Russia's interests.' "'NATO,' he said, quote, "'would be seen as throwing down the strategic gauntlet. "'Today's Russia will respond. "'Russian-Ukrainian relations will go into a deep freeze. "'It will create fertile soil for Russian meddling "'in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.'" This was written by Bill Burns in 2008. Burns was not the only Western policymaker in 2008 who understood that bringing Ukraine into NATO was fraught with danger. Both Angela Merkel, who was then the German chancellor, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy adamantly opposed moving forward to bring Ukraine into NATO. Merkel said, "'I was very sure that Putin is not going "'to just let that happen."'From his perspective, that would be a declaration of war.'" Putin saw Ukraine joining NATO as a mortal threat that could not be allowed and was willing to go to war to prevent it from happening, which he did, of course, in February of 2022. Relations between Europe and Russia will not only be poisonous, they will also be dangerous. The possibility of war will be ever-present. In other words, the threat of a major European war will not go away when the fighting in Ukraine stops. Russian victory in Ukraine, would be a stunning defeat for Europe. Or to put it in slightly different words, it would be a stunning defeat for NATO, which has been deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict since it started. The political fights, some will question the future of NATO, given that it failed to check Russia, the country that most European leaders describe as a mortal threat. Threats to the EU aside, the great reduction in the flow of gas and oil to Europe since the war started has seriously hurt the major economies of Europe and slowed down growth in the overall Eurozone. General Observations The Ukraine war has been a disaster. It has had catastrophic consequences for Ukraine. It has poisoned relations between Europe and Russia for the foreseeable future. It has made Europe a more dangerous place. It has also caused serious economic and political harm inside Europe, and badly damaged transatlantic relations. Most European leaders, and I'm sure most people in the various European publics, will blame Putin for causing the war, and thus for its terrible consequences. But they are wrong. The war could have been avoided if the West had not decided to bring Ukraine into NATO, or even if it had backed off from that commitment once the Russians made their opposition clear. Had that happened, Ukraine would almost certainly be intact today within its pre-2014 borders, and Europe would be more stable and more prosperous. Crimea would still be part of Ukraine. ***Professor John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a globally recognized expert in international relations.

🚨🚨🚨WAKE UP EUROPE 🛎️🛎️🛎️ If You Still Believe That Russia Started This Conflict in 2022, Then You Are Ignorant, or Brainwashed. The END to NATO. The Ukraine war, which I will argue was provoked by the West and especially the United States. This war will be settled on the battlefield where the Russians are likely to win an ugly victory. Settling the war diplomatically is not possible because the opposing sides have irreconcilable differences. Instead, it's likely to be, as I said, an ugly victory, where Russia ends up occupying somewhere between 20 to 40% of pre-2014 Ukraine, while Ukraine ends up as a dysfunctional rump state covering the territory that Russia does not conquer. Ukraine has effectively been wrecked. It has already lost a substantial portion of its territory and is likely to lose more land before the fighting stops. Russian leaders recognized that the Ukrainian army, which was larger than the invasion force, I want to emphasize this, the Ukrainian army was larger than the Russian invasion force, it was armed and trained by NATO, and it was becoming a de facto member of NATO. Immediately after the war began, Russia, not Ukraine, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vivendi between the two countries. This move is directly at odds with the claim that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and make it part of greater Russia. Negotiations between Kiev and Moscow began in Belarus just four days, four days after the Russian invasion. And that Belarus track was eventually replaced by an Israeli as well as an Istanbul track. The available evidence indicates that the Russians were negotiating seriously and were not interested in absorbing Ukrainian territory, save for Crimea, which they had annexed in 2014, and possibly the Donbass region. The negotiations ended when the Ukrainians, with prodding from Britain and the United States, walked away from the negotiations, which were making good progress at the time. The Russians did not walk away from the negotiations. In the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis. On 17 October 2021, remember the war begins February 2022, this is 17 December 2021, Putin sends letters to both President Biden and to NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg proposing a solution to the crisis based on a written guarantee that does three things. Number one, Ukraine would not join NATO, number two, no offensive weapons would be stationed near Russia's borders, and number three, NATO troops and equipment moved into Eastern Europe since 1997 would be moved back to Western Europe. Whatever one thinks of the feasibility of reaching a bargain based on Putin's opening demands, it shows he was trying to avoid war. The United States, on the other hand, refused to negotiate with Putin. It appears it was not interested in avoiding war. In fact, the United States and its European allies provoked the war. Bringing Kiev into the European Union and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine, you all remember the Orange Revolution, which was designed to make Ukraine a pro-Western liberal democracy, are the other two prongs of the policy. Russian leaders across the board said repeatedly before the war. that they considered NATO expansion into Ukraine to be an existential threat that had to be eliminated. Putin made numerous public statements laying out this line of argument before 24 February, 2022. Other leaders, including the defense minister, the foreign minister, the deputy foreign minister, and Moscow's ambassador to Washington also emphasized the centrality of NATO expansion for causing the crisis over Ukraine. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, made this point succinctly at a press conference on 14 January, 2022. Lavrov says "'The key to everything is the guarantee "'that NATO will not expand eastward.' Substantial number of influential and highly regarded individuals in the West recognized before the war that NATO expansion, especially into Ukraine, would be seen by Russian leaders as a mortal threat and eventually would lead to disaster. William Burns, who was recently Joe Biden's head of the CIA, but he was the American ambassador to Moscow in April 2008 when the decision was made to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, wrote a very famous memo that I'm sure some of you are familiar with to then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. This is a quite remarkable memo, and I'm going to quote extensively from it. "'Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest "'of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin. "'In more than two and a half years of conversations "'with key Russian players, from knuckle draggers "'in the dark recesses of the Kremlin "'to Putin's sharpest liberal critics, "'I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine and NATO "'as anything other than a direct challenge "'to Russia's interests.' "'NATO,' he said, quote, "'would be seen as throwing down the strategic gauntlet. "'Today's Russia will respond. "'Russian-Ukrainian relations will go into a deep freeze. "'It will create fertile soil for Russian meddling "'in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.'" This was written by Bill Burns in 2008. Burns was not the only Western policymaker in 2008 who understood that bringing Ukraine into NATO was fraught with danger. Both Angela Merkel, who was then the German chancellor, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy adamantly opposed moving forward to bring Ukraine into NATO. Merkel said, "'I was very sure that Putin is not going "'to just let that happen."'From his perspective, that would be a declaration of war.'" Putin saw Ukraine joining NATO as a mortal threat that could not be allowed and was willing to go to war to prevent it from happening, which he did, of course, in February of 2022. Relations between Europe and Russia will not only be poisonous, they will also be dangerous. The possibility of war will be ever-present. In other words, the threat of a major European war will not go away when the fighting in Ukraine stops. Russian victory in Ukraine, would be a stunning defeat for Europe. Or to put it in slightly different words, it would be a stunning defeat for NATO, which has been deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict since it started. The political fights, some will question the future of NATO, given that it failed to check Russia, the country that most European leaders describe as a mortal threat. Threats to the EU aside, the great reduction in the flow of gas and oil to Europe since the war started has seriously hurt the major economies of Europe and slowed down growth in the overall Eurozone. General Observations The Ukraine war has been a disaster. It has had catastrophic consequences for Ukraine. It has poisoned relations between Europe and Russia for the foreseeable future. It has made Europe a more dangerous place. It has also caused serious economic and political harm inside Europe, and badly damaged transatlantic relations. Most European leaders, and I'm sure most people in the various European publics, will blame Putin for causing the war, and thus for its terrible consequences. But they are wrong. The war could have been avoided if the West had not decided to bring Ukraine into NATO, or even if it had backed off from that commitment once the Russians made their opposition clear. Had that happened, Ukraine would almost certainly be intact today within its pre-2014 borders, and Europe would be more stable and more prosperous. Crimea would still be part of Ukraine. ***Professor John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a globally recognized expert in international relations.

Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil

374,394 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Russian propagandist Simonyan talks about the great sacred war that is not being fought against Ukraine. Take a listen. Putin and his inner circle have stopped talking about peace and negotiations and are raising the stakes. They speak of a "great and sacred war" against Europe and NATO. Why is this happening? It is a consequence of Russia’s failures on the Ukrainian front, where Russians are not advancing and are losing more and more soldiers - over 35,000 every month, more than they recruit - while Ukrainians are expanding the kill zone. It is the growing economic problems and the realization that Russia is heading toward collapse. It is the realization that everyone involved in the war will be punished after it ends, which means they cannot allow the war to end. Putin’s inner circle is aware of this dead-end situation. But Putin himself does not know the real picture, because people are afraid to tell him the truth. Therefore, Putin is convinced that he is winning the war. In addition, he sees that the United States is currently focused on the war in Iran and is no longer reacting to massive attacks on Ukraine and hybrid attacks in Europe. By the way, it is quite possible that the latest attack on Kyiv was organized personally for Putin - to give him the satisfaction of seeing Kyiv burning, especially after the humiliating May 9 parade in Moscow - but in reality, this attack achieved no military objectives and was a waste of millions. In this situation, with no real military successes in Ukraine, Putin’s inner circle, out of fear, may develop a desire to continue the war in a new direction - for example against the Baltic states - so that Putin stops asking about Donbas and Mala Tokmachka. The greater the defeat, the higher the stakes.

Russian propagandist Simonyan talks about the great sacred war that is not being fought against Ukraine. Take a listen. Putin and his inner circle have stopped talking about peace and negotiations and are raising the stakes. They speak of a "great and sacred war" against Europe and NATO. Why is this happening? It is a consequence of Russia’s failures on the Ukrainian front, where Russians are not advancing and are losing more and more soldiers - over 35,000 every month, more than they recruit - while Ukrainians are expanding the kill zone. It is the growing economic problems and the realization that Russia is heading toward collapse. It is the realization that everyone involved in the war will be punished after it ends, which means they cannot allow the war to end. Putin’s inner circle is aware of this dead-end situation. But Putin himself does not know the real picture, because people are afraid to tell him the truth. Therefore, Putin is convinced that he is winning the war. In addition, he sees that the United States is currently focused on the war in Iran and is no longer reacting to massive attacks on Ukraine and hybrid attacks in Europe. By the way, it is quite possible that the latest attack on Kyiv was organized personally for Putin - to give him the satisfaction of seeing Kyiv burning, especially after the humiliating May 9 parade in Moscow - but in reality, this attack achieved no military objectives and was a waste of millions. In this situation, with no real military successes in Ukraine, Putin’s inner circle, out of fear, may develop a desire to continue the war in a new direction - for example against the Baltic states - so that Putin stops asking about Donbas and Mala Tokmachka. The greater the defeat, the higher the stakes.

Anton Gerashchenko

403,434 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce