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It’s Armed forces week this week & I’ve just come from the Chamber where there is an Opposition Day Debate on Defence Spending and Readiness & Labour are in a right tailspin on this & over their defence strategy & spending plans. Whatever money Starmer was trying to pretend...

10,989 views • 22 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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This week's episode of our podcast The State of It with the brilliant Lara Spirit * Inside the bitter Cabinet splits over the defence investment plan - why nobody is happy * Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce a £13.5billion increase in defence spending - far less than previously considered * John Healey, the defence secretary, has warned that this will not be enough and that it risks undermining our credibility in Nato. Defence chiefs had originally asked for £28billion * The Treasury is also said to be pushing for a "planning assumption" that Britain will only meet its target of spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence up from current levels of 2.3 per cent in 2034/35. Healey is concerned that this is not soon enough, given the scale of the threat Britain faces, and has so far refused to sign it off * Talks are going down to the wire. The launch of the Defence Investment Plan was planned for Friday but it could easily be delayed yet again * The defence chiefs are deeply unhappy. They are concerned that the money on the table will not be enough to fund key projects. There's a feeling they have largely been kept in the dark * Reeves is deeply frustrated by the process - the fact she is having to effectively reopen the spending review process to find the money. Her intervention at an investor conference yesterday - warning of need for tax rises to fund defence - was particularly significant * Then there's the bigger political picture - what if Burnham wins Makerfield, becomes PM and takes a different view? By that stage you could have a new PM, a new chancellor and a new defence secretary. Worth remembering that there are significant cuts to DfT capital budgets and net zero projects to help fund the DIP * Latest from Makerfield: Burnham allies are increasingly confident he will win the by-election. They think Restore UK is a factor that will divide the vote on the right. Restore is targeting female voters in particular * The big question - if Burnham wins Makerfield when does he make his move? Allies suggesting he is likely to go sooner than later * The prospect of an orderly transition appears unlikely - Starmer said to think Burnham's manoeuvres are 'unforgivable' - there is mutual enmity between the two men which goes back for years * Will Starmer stand and fight? He insists he will. But we have seen this before with Boris Johnson and even Liz Truss insisting they would fight on and then going. But Starmer is a different character * If there is a leadership contest where does that leave Labour? It means we will have weeks of internal arguments and a 'battle of ideas' in the run-up to a hugely challenging cost of living crisis this winter...

Steven Swinford

16,238 views • 1 month ago