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It's important to understand that the EU calculation on Iran has changed dramatically. Tehran's support for Russia has turned it into a threat, and the lack of economic ties has made escalation with Iran far less costly. Hence, escalation with Iran is worth the price if it helps the...

14,430 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇦🇮🇷 Ukraine may have just made the biggest geopolitical gamble of the entire war. Economist Philip Pilkington believes Kyiv has realised the Iran war is swallowing Trump's attention, and has found a dangerous way to force itself back into the conversation. Start with the timing. Ukraine suddenly strikes an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, Zelensky prepares to meet Trump, Laura Loomer travels to Kyiv and conducts a heavily promoted interview with him, and Trump reposts it. Then, almost overnight, pro-Ukraine voices begin repeating the same line: Iran has been at war with Ukraine since 2022 because it supplied Russia with drones. Philip believes this isn't random. His theory is that Ukraine is trying to reposition itself as useful to Trump’s current priority. The pitch is simple: Keep supporting us, and we will help you pressure Iran. That may be Kyiv’s best chance of regaining priority for U.S weapons, intelligence and political attention as the battlefield situation in Ukraine deteriorates. But Philip warns the strategy could produce something far more dangerous than its architects intend. If Ukraine continues attacking Iranian assets, Tehran may stop treating the Ukraine war and the Iran war as separate conflicts. And Iran has little reason to retaliate by firing missiles at Ukraine because Russia is already pounding Ukrainian territory every day. But Europe is a different matter. European countries manufacture weapons and drones for Ukraine, finance the war and provide the infrastructure that keeps Kyiv fighting. Philip thinks Iran could decide that European weapons factories are legitimate targets under the same logic Ukraine is now using against Iranian assets. Russia can't strike those facilities without risking a direct NATO confrontation, but Iran’s calculation may be different. America is already bombing it, so what additional threat is Europe going to make? Ukraine attacks Iran to regain Trump’s support, Iran retaliates by hitting targets in Europe, then EU governments are forced into the Middle East war. What begins as a clever attempt to win Trump back could end with Europe dragged directly into a war it never intended to fight. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

330,525 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce