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It's officially been 300 weeks since 2020 began. Saving $50/week in bitcoin during that time would’ve turned $15k into 0.58 BTC, now worth over $63k. Saving in gold instead would’ve yielded 7.45 oz of gold, worth just over $28k. Bitcoin’s a superior long term savings technology.

364,886 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER

George Noble

11,852 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

$Nvidia is worth 35,830,000 bitcoins today. Not gonna fit. There's only 21 million bitcoins. Nvidia will go down in BTC terms. $Apple is worth 26,000,000 bitcoins today. Not gonna fit. There's only 21 million bitcoins. Nvidia will go down in BTC terms. $Tesla is worth 8,251,000 million bitcoins today. That fits. But do you really think $Tesla is worth 40% of all bitcoins? Nah. Tesla will go down in BTC terms. Do you see? There's only 21 million bitcoins. Always and forever. Everything has to fit inside. Then you realize... The Chinese Yuan is worth 377,285,009 BTC. Rekt. The U.S. Dollar is worth 183,870,703 BTC. Rekt. The Euro is worth 152,303,623 BTC. Rekt. Everything is trending down in Bitcoin terms. Forever. When I first made this post in October of 2024, Nvidia was worth 46,361,000 bitcoins, Apple was worth 55,246,000 bitcoins, and Tesla was worth 12,874,000 bitcoins. That means since then... Nvidia has declined by 23% Apple has declined by 53% Tesla has declined by 36% This is happening as you read these words. Everything is getting repriced inside of Bitcoin's 21 million supply. This means two things: 1) Everything is going down in BTC terms, because there is constantly new productivity being created, but there is a finite, fixed supply of BTC. The current amount of productivity *has to go down in BTC terms* to make room for the new productivity to be priced in BTC. The faster new productivity is created, the faster everything else trends down in BTC price. 2) If everything is going down in BTC terms, the inverse is also true: BTC is going up in value against everything else. Is this actually true? Well, ask yourself... has BTC outperformed everything else since it was created in 2009? Well then. The world is waking up to Bitcoin. This will make the California gold rush look like a neighborhood garage sale. Everything is trending down in BTC terms, and BTC is going up in value, forever. (Bonus: I created this video over two years ago. BTC is up over 500% since then...) WAKE UP

Cole Walmsley

1,626,807 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

If you've been confused watching gold crash during this war, you're not alone. The financial media won't cover it but there are three macro conditions driving it's price down. Understanding these will help you decide whether to buy more or sell. Here's what they are: 1) The Oil Shock Margin Call Countries that import oil need dollars to pay for increased energy bills. Turkey imports 90% of its oil and 98% of its gas. They were forced to sell 58 tons of gold in two weeks to stay afloat, becoming responsible for the most selling pressure than every other gold ETF investor who are also selling. Countries relying on these imports are doing the same. 2) Currency Peg Defense Every Gulf state pegs their currency to the dollar, which upholds when oil money flows in. Since the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, dollars are still flowing out through food imports, military costs, and capital flight. They have to sell gold to keep their currency stable instead of letting the peg break, which would lead to hyperinflation and economic collapse. 3) War Funding Russia sold $30 billion in gold last year and is banning gold exports over 100 grams starting April 2026. Poland is talking about liquidating $13 billion worth of it for defense spending. That's just two examples of countries converting gold reserves into cash for military spending. Gold crashed because three macro forces margin called entire countries at the same time. The thread below explains why none of this changes the long-term bull case for gold.

Felix Prehn 🐶

22,927 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 WHY BUY GOLD & SILVER? “This is about being short the behaviour of your government. If you think they're going to be disciplined & they're going to raise rates above inflation & give you a real return on your cash, then don't do it.” This week on The Master Investor Podcast I am joined by Ned Naylor Leyland – Manager of $3bn Jupiter Gold & Silver Fund, & recently crowned Investment Week Fund Manager Of The Year. “You can ask yourself – the Treasury Secretary & the Fed Chair, are they politicians? I mean in my view, absolutely. I mean the idea of independence in my view is rather fanciful – these people say one thing & do another. The idea that there'll be a genuine pullback in the scale of central bank balance sheets is in my view unlikely.” GOLD MINERS: “The producers have never been cheaper than they are today. Ever. So these are the most profitable companies in the world - 50% free cashflow margin is probably double & in some cases triple the free cashflow that tech is making.” SILVER: "Silver is like gold in that you are short politicians, but you're also long the future. So your long green tech, tech, the military, everything really that's running the modern economy, but you're also short politicians. So silver has a nice dual feel to it.” IF TECH SELLS OFF? “It's very likely that if the equity market does go lower, then that creates a more dovish background, which is the fuel for the space I invest in. So you see a very big decoupling then of performance between the wider equity market & this particular part of it.” BITCOIN: "My personal investment style is I want to be early & I don't want to be there for the last two months of the pregnancy. I'd rather be there right at the beginning & then once I reach the point where other people are starting to get excited & jump in & there's a kind of critical mass feel, that doesn't make me feel comfortable. This is a genuine contrarian thing where I don't want to be there." GOLD vs BITCOIN: "You own gold & silver because you are thinking about this over the long term, whereas you might want to trade Bitcoin as a way to fund your holiday." WHERE IS THE GOLD: “Should these bars be audited? They should also be checked for encumbrances, which is really the more important point, presuming they're all there, who owns them? How many times over have they been leased, loaned, swapped into the system? There's one thing that is there. The other thing is how many post-it notes on each bar?" Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 3:05 Long term case for gold 6:14 Long term case for silver 7:06 Why no other metals? 9:54 What drove 2025 surge in gold & silver 13:06 Did Gold peak in January? 15:20 Is debasement priced in? 17:15 Central banks are NOT independent 22:00 Gold not risk-on or risk-off – its risk-free 23:15 Gold vs Bitcoin 27:14 Physical commodity + producers + development assets 29:52 Miners cheaper than ever 33:10 Portfolio construction 34:56 Gold & Silver not normal commodities 37:25 Where Is The Gold? 42:26 Physical gold vs his fund? 43:40 Revaluation of US gold reserves? 50:13 Why buy gold & silver NOW? 51:47 Could governments behave? 54:37 Conclusion

Wilfred Frost

80,971 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.

George Noble

133,893 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce