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Ivan on Tech breaks down the silver trap. The Hunt brothers pumped silver from $4 to $50 in the 70s. What happened next? Miners went absolutely crazy increasing supply. Price crashed. Same pattern will repeat. Easy money always invites more production. That's the trap. BITCOIN IS THEREFORE SUPERIOR

15,950 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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I am extremely bullish on silver prices long term. There are clearly supply shortages in this market which has caused the increase in the silver prices from $30 last year to over $70 today. The issue is global silver mine supply. It is in decline. All of the mines in the world produced 900 million oz in 2015. In 2026 it will be about 820 million oz. Production is steadily declining. The best mines have been found and depleted. Meanwhile silver demand is still increasing. EVs, solar panels, electronics, Ai chips, etc. I have invested in physical silver, but I also invest in a few silver mining stocks. Most mining stocks are struggling just to maintain current silver production. The key is to find the companies that can increase production. My top silver stock in my portfolio is Aya Gold & Silver (ticker AYASF). The reason why is because this company is one of the few that can seriously increase it's production in the coming years. They are already producing 6 million oz of silver per year from their first mine, Zgounder. They mine at a cost of $20 per oz, they are selling their silver at over $70 per oz. That is over $50 per oz profit margins on 6 million oz. They are building their next mine, Boumadine, which is currently projected to produce 37 million oz AgEq in 2030. So this is a company that will increase revenue and profits by about 6x to 7x even if gold and silver prices remain at current levels. If gold and silver prices increase from here, the upside for AYASF is even higher. Here is a brief clip from an interview last week where the CEO, Benoit La Salle, walks through the numbers and the comparison to other silver miners. Benoit has built multiple mines in his career and he is doing it again with Aya (ticker AYASF). I will leave the link to the full interview in the replies below. This is just a brief clip. Bookmark this post. I will be posting about Aya regularly in the coming years.

Wall Street Mav

64,431 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

THE BY-PRODUCT TRAP: WHY SILVER CANNOT ESCAPE THE FATE OF ZINC AND COPPER MINES Precious metals expert Ernst Gratz reveals the dangerous trap that has silver supply locked to the fortunes of base metals. Nearly eighty percent of silver emerges as a byproduct from copper, zinc, and lead mining operations around the world. When those mines face economic pressure, declining ore grades, or regulatory shutdowns, silver production suffers immediate and lasting damage with almost no ability to ramp up quickly. This sets the stage for a major supply crunch precisely as demand from the energy transition accelerates. THE BY-PRODUCT TRAP ➡️ The biggest mistake many analysts make is ignoring the mining reality behind silver supply. ➡️ They assume that if silver prices rise we can simply produce more. ➡️ That thinking is completely wrong because almost eighty percent of silver comes as a byproduct from base metal mines. ➡️ No company opens a giant zinc mine just because the silver price looks attractive. THE MINE CLOSURE CASCADE ➡️ When the global economy weakens and zinc or lead prices fall, unprofitable mines get mothballed or closed. ➡️ The resulting shortage of silver acts as pure collateral damage for the entire precious metals market. ➡️ Declining ore grades in mature mines across South America automatically cut silver output. ➡️ Protests, environmental regulations, and tax disputes in top producers Mexico and Peru deliver immediate global supply shocks. THE DEMAND EXPLOSION ➡️ The energy transition drives gigantic silver demand, led by AI, electric vehicles, electronics, and more. ➡️ At the same time supply stays extremely rigid and inelastic. ➡️ New standalone silver mines remain rare and take five to ten years to reach production due to permitting and environmental rules. THE RECYCLING LIFELINE ➡️ World silver recycling has risen above two hundred million ounces for the first time since 2012, roughly six thousand four hundred tons. ➡️ Yet projections show demand climbing to eighty thousand tons by 2032. ➡️ Even with higher recycling the supply gap will persist because primary output remains tied to base metals. THE 2025 TO 2027 PRODUCTION HITS ➡️ Newmont's Benaskitoine operation recorded a ten percent decline in zinc concentrate output from falling ore grades. ➡️ The Red DOP mine suffered a sixteen percent production drop in 2025 with more steep declines forecast. ➡️ Glencore's Antamina mine expects over two hundred fifty thousand tons less zinc concentrate in 2026. ➡️ Millions of ounces of potential byproduct silver will stay in the ground as primary zinc mines throttle output. THE BOTTOM LINE Silver supply faces a structural bottleneck that cannot adjust quickly to surging demand from the energy transition and advanced technologies. Primary physical mining combined with recycling will ultimately set the true value, rewarding those who hold silver through the coming shortage. This is the sound of a market waking up to its own structural fragility. #SilverSupplyCrisis #ByProductTrap #BaseMetalMines #SilverDemand #MiningClosures #PreciousMetals #EnergyTransition HT: YouTube Ernst Gratz

Mark

46,053 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

UPDATE - M. OLIVER: WHY GOLD & SILVER MINERS ARE “FREE” RIGHT NOW One of the sharpest voices in precious metals just explained why he's quietly reducing leveraged positions and piling into gold and silver mining stocks. His reason? They are absurdly cheap compared to the metals they produce—and the charts are screaming breakout. THE HISTORIC VALUATION GAP ✅ Gold & silver miners (XAU index) are trading at only 4–8% of the price of an ounce of gold. ➡️ Compare that to historical averages: 25% of gold price during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2008 bull runs. 🔥 Right now, miners are “dirt cheap” relative to the metal in the ground. THE TECHNICAL SETUP IS PRIMED ✅ The XAU/gold ratio has been trapped in an 11-year ultra-low base. 📈 We're now challenging and rallying above that long-term resistance near 8%. 🚀 A decisive breakout from this level has historically triggered massive investor flows into miners. SILVER MINERS LOOK EVEN MORE EXPLOSIVE ✅ When you zoom in on silver miners versus gold miners, the relative strength setup is even more compelling. ➡️ The leverage to silver prices is massive—if silver keeps running, silver-focused producers stand to outperform dramatically. THE PORTFOLIO SHIFT UNDERWAY ✅ “I've already been lightening my position and moving more into junior miners.” ➡️ Preference is shifting toward unleveraged miners for the rest of this year and likely into next. 💥 “That's where the real bang for the buck comes.” THE BOTTOM LINE Gold and silver miners aren't just undervalued—they're at some of the cheapest levels in decades versus the metals they mine, with technicals flashing a potential explosive breakout that could attract a flood of capital. Time to stop calling them “cheap” and start calling them opportunity. HT: YouTube Jimmy Connor Momentum Structural Analysis Current portfolio (DYODD)👇 #Gold #Silver #MiningStocks #PreciousMetals #XAU #JuniorMiners #BullMarket

Mark

250,925 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten