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“I’ve been skeptical of software now for two years.” On CNBC Halftime with Scott Wapner (Scott Wapner), Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) explained why many software names have reverted from a decade of premium multiples back toward market multiples in the AI era. “The closer you are to a point... show more

Altimeter Capital

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Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) joined CNBC’s Halftime Report with Scott Wapner (Scott) to address the software selloff. In a moment of “exponential change,” investors say “fog of war” and put application software in the “too hard bucket” — not because they’re “missing earnings or revenue today,” but because future free cash flows are harder to predict. Watch the conversation⬇️

Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) joined CNBC’s Halftime Report with Scott Wapner (Scott) to address the software selloff. In a moment of “exponential change,” investors say “fog of war” and put application software in the “too hard bucket” — not because they’re “missing earnings or revenue today,” but because future free cash flows are harder to predict. Watch the conversation⬇️

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Last week on CNBC Halftime, Brad Gerstner (Brad Gerstner) broke down the AI selloff — first with Scott Wapner (Scott Wapner), then alongside Jensen Huang (NVIDIA): With Scott Wapner on markets + AI CapEx: "There's a fog of war when the rate of change goes parabolic." "When the smartest guys in the world — Sundar, Elon, Andy Jassy, Mark Zuckerberg — are all saying we are going to earn a return on this investment, my bet is on them." With Jensen Huang on AI infrastructure + U.S. competitiveness: "This is like building the interstate highway system — $700 billion of investment, all funded by profitable private companies in America." "Could you imagine being large early investors in Google, Amazon, and Meta? Incredible. And that's what we're looking at." As founder of Invest America | Trump Accounts | Trump Accounts, Brad is focused on ensuring every American has a stake in the future being built. Watch the conversation 👇

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"Warren Buffett has this old metaphor: the yes basket, the no basket, and the too-hard basket. For me, software is generally in the too-hard basket." — Brad Gerstner Brad shows how the recent rerating of software stocks simply brought them down to the average market P/E ratio. "So when I hear everybody crying, 'Hey, these multiples aren't fair,' it looks to me like the multiples reset from an above-market multiple — where everybody thought the revenue and earnings were impenetrable — to now, they're saying, 'Maybe 3-5 years out, they'll be replaced. So we're going to raise the discount rate and lower the multiple.' They've only lowered it to the market multiple." "Let me just suggest there's a possibility [software] will trade well below the market multiple. I'm not wishing for that, I'm just saying there's a distribution of potential outcomes here." "If you get on the AI train, if you get in the token flow, you're gonna get an above-market multiple. If you don't, if you slow down and it looks like every time that computational intelligence improves, your business gets worse, then I promise you, [you] will trade below the market multiple."

"Warren Buffett has this old metaphor: the yes basket, the no basket, and the too-hard basket. For me, software is generally in the too-hard basket." — Brad Gerstner Brad shows how the recent rerating of software stocks simply brought them down to the average market P/E ratio. "So when I hear everybody crying, 'Hey, these multiples aren't fair,' it looks to me like the multiples reset from an above-market multiple — where everybody thought the revenue and earnings were impenetrable — to now, they're saying, 'Maybe 3-5 years out, they'll be replaced. So we're going to raise the discount rate and lower the multiple.' They've only lowered it to the market multiple." "Let me just suggest there's a possibility [software] will trade well below the market multiple. I'm not wishing for that, I'm just saying there's a distribution of potential outcomes here." "If you get on the AI train, if you get in the token flow, you're gonna get an above-market multiple. If you don't, if you slow down and it looks like every time that computational intelligence improves, your business gets worse, then I promise you, [you] will trade below the market multiple."

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“AI is changing the value prop of software.” We spoke with Metronome CEO Scott Woody about why AI requires a new business model. “In the cloud era…the value of the software scales as your org scales.” “In AI, the software is now doing work on your behalf…so the core value of the software is not who in my org has access to the data, it's what can this software do for me? When the value shifts from access to output, the business model has to follow.

“AI is changing the value prop of software.” We spoke with Metronome CEO Scott Woody about why AI requires a new business model. “In the cloud era…the value of the software scales as your org scales.” “In AI, the software is now doing work on your behalf…so the core value of the software is not who in my org has access to the data, it's what can this software do for me? When the value shifts from access to output, the business model has to follow.

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📈 Brad Gerstner on the insane revenue numbers coming out of Anthropic: "We had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February...It was only a 28-day month. That's more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake – that are two of the greatest software companies of all time after 12 years, right? They could do, in the first four or five months of this year, the total revenue of SpaceX this year." –Brad Gerstner on The All-In Podcast

📈 Brad Gerstner on the insane revenue numbers coming out of Anthropic: "We had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February...It was only a 28-day month. That's more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake – that are two of the greatest software companies of all time after 12 years, right? They could do, in the first four or five months of this year, the total revenue of SpaceX this year." –Brad Gerstner on The All-In Podcast

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Brad Gerstner Brad Gerstner discussing why CoreWeave $CRWV is the only neocloud position he likes.. Interesting to hear from someone who knows Jensen, Altman, Satya etc. very well.. "We were investors in CoreWeave when it was a private company. We've been investors, you know, as they entered the public market and it's pulled back here, we've added to our position. We're not adding to other neoclouds. We don't think other neoclouds are created equal. We think CoreWeave stands alone in terms of its performance, the software that it's build on top of the cloud, its execution capability, its strategic importance to Nvidia in terms of deploying Rubin, etcetera. So we think it makes a really interesting opportunity."

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Brad Gerstner: Anthropic could *ADD* $200B of Revenue in 2027 - “We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world.” Brad Gerstner: “Let me be provocative here. If (Anthropic) ends the year with over $100 billion (in revenue), I think they're on a revenue trajectory that could 3-5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this.” @jason: “You're saying $100B to $300B, or $100B to $400B.” Brad: “Our minds were blown if a company could go from $100M to $300M. Now we're talking from $100B to $300B. $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “In the history of the world.” Brad: “Yeah, in the history of the world. The fact that we're even talking anywhere close to this tells us something different is going on here. I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world. These guys are penetrating it.”

Brad Gerstner: Anthropic could ADD $200B of Revenue in 2027 - “We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world.” Brad Gerstner: “Let me be provocative here. If (Anthropic) ends the year with over $100 billion (in revenue), I think they're on a revenue trajectory that could 3-5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this.” @jason: “You're saying $100B to $300B, or $100B to $400B.” Brad: “Our minds were blown if a company could go from $100M to $300M. Now we're talking from $100B to $300B. $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” Chamath Palihapitiya: “In the history of the world.” Brad: “Yeah, in the history of the world. The fact that we're even talking anywhere close to this tells us something different is going on here. I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world. These guys are penetrating it.”

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Amjad Masad (Amjad Masad), co-founder & CEO of Replit, has spent nearly a decade making programming accessible to everyone. With AI, that vision is closer than ever. In his AI Startup School talk, Amjad traces computing’s arc from mainframes to PCs to a future where AI agents generate software on demand—driving the value of traditional software toward zero and reshaping how companies are built. 00:22 - Evolution of Computing 01:27 - The Rise of Software Engineering 02:16 - Replit's Vision: Making Programming Accessible 02:42 - The Role of AI in Software Development 04:32 - Challenges and Infrastructure for AI Agents 05:03 - Building a Scalable and Secure Environment 06:08 - Future of Software Engineering Agents 09:25 - Autonomy Levels in AI Agents 15:56 - Predictions for the Software Market 18:31 - Impact on Business and Employment 19:58 - The Role of Generalist Employees 26:00 - Audience Q&A

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🤖 Microsoft’s approach to headcount in the AI era: "I will say we will grow a headcount, but the way I look at it is that headcount we grow will grow with a lot more leverage than the headcount we had pre ai. And that's the adjustment. I think structurally you are seeing first, right? Which is one you called it 'getting fit.' — Satya Nadella on Bg2 Pod with Brad Gerstner and Sam Altman w/ Brad Gerstner adding: "I think we're on the verge of incredible economic productivity growth."

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Jensen Huang just said this is the greatest era in history to build software. AI agents will not kill software. They will do the exact opposite: create a massive new wave of software demand. at NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 "Click and type. We now replace that with explaining to the AI what we want, our intent, and the AI generates the code or uses tools to produce the necessary output. This is how computers are going to work in the future. This is Agentic AI. For two years, we've been building toward this, and now it has arrived. One of the big breakthroughs, of course, is tool use. A lot of people have said, “Jensen, AI is coming. Agentic AI is coming. Therefore, all the software companies are going to go out of business.” This is exactly the opposite. Because there are going to be so many agents, the world is no longer limited by the number of people. Therefore, those agents are going to use more tools than ever. This is actually an incredible time to be a software company. But the software has to be presented to the agent in a way that the agent can use it. This is a big breakthrough. And in fact, what we have done, as you know, what Nvidia’s treasure..." ---- From 'NVIDIA' YT channel (link in comment)

Jensen Huang just said this is the greatest era in history to build software. AI agents will not kill software. They will do the exact opposite: create a massive new wave of software demand. at NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 "Click and type. We now replace that with explaining to the AI what we want, our intent, and the AI generates the code or uses tools to produce the necessary output. This is how computers are going to work in the future. This is Agentic AI. For two years, we've been building toward this, and now it has arrived. One of the big breakthroughs, of course, is tool use. A lot of people have said, “Jensen, AI is coming. Agentic AI is coming. Therefore, all the software companies are going to go out of business.” This is exactly the opposite. Because there are going to be so many agents, the world is no longer limited by the number of people. Therefore, those agents are going to use more tools than ever. This is actually an incredible time to be a software company. But the software has to be presented to the agent in a way that the agent can use it. This is a big breakthrough. And in fact, what we have done, as you know, what Nvidia’s treasure..." ---- From 'NVIDIA' YT channel (link in comment)

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The new bar for software: "can I vibecode this?" We’re heading into a world of personal software — built for one person and their needs — and premium software, designed with such depth that you’re buying a solution, not a tool. Most software today sits in the middle. And the middle is death. As the market catches up to our new reality, it won’t just be the ai bubble popping — it’ll be a lot of traditional SaaS getting wiped out (From my recent Kinference talk.)

Carl Rivera

98,551 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Nebius will be a TRILLION dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). Brad Gerstner's Altimeter said on camera that they are invested in ClickHouse, and explained exactly why in one sentence: "If you're in the data infrastructure layer, then token consumption is driving a lot more consumption of your basic services." The flip side of that point is equally important. Gerstner added that the closer you are to a point solution, a single use app built on top of AI, "that feels like you're on the front of the conveyor belt heading toward the guillotine." Models get better, apps get commoditized and the companies that own the foundational infrastructure that every AI application must run through keep compounding. ClickHouse is exactly that foundational layer. It is a real time analytical database engine originally built inside Yandex, optimized for the exact query patterns that AI agents, LLM observability pipelines, and machine learning infrastructure generate, massive write volumes, complex aggregations, and sub-second response at scale. It processes hundreds of billions of rows per second, serves over 2,000 enterprise customers including Cloudflare, Uber and ByteDance, and grew 300% in a single year. In January 2026, a $400 million Series D valued ClickHouse at $15 billion more than double its $6 billion valuation just eight months prior. Here is where Nebius comes in. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, an asset that traces back to its Yandex origins. At ClickHouse's current $15 billion valuation, that stake is worth approximately $4.2 billion, sitting largely unrecognized on Nebius's balance sheet while most market coverage focuses entirely on the AI cloud business. A ClickHouse IPO, which the company is actively positioning toward, would force the market to mark that position to full public market value for the first time and could alone reprice Nebius meaningfully. But that hidden asset is just one layer of the bull case. The core AI cloud business just printed 684% year over year revenue growth, $399 million in Q1 2026 against $50 million a year prior. AI specific revenue grew 841% and now represents 98% of total revenue. The moat underneath those numbers is 3.5 gigawatts of secured power capacity, a $27 billion five year contract with Meta, a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, all stacked on top of a ClickHouse stake that the market is still not fully pricing in. Long Nebius and make sure to follow me Melvin for more underlooked AI oppurtunities.

Nebius will be a TRILLION dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). Brad Gerstner's Altimeter said on camera that they are invested in ClickHouse, and explained exactly why in one sentence: "If you're in the data infrastructure layer, then token consumption is driving a lot more consumption of your basic services." The flip side of that point is equally important. Gerstner added that the closer you are to a point solution, a single use app built on top of AI, "that feels like you're on the front of the conveyor belt heading toward the guillotine." Models get better, apps get commoditized and the companies that own the foundational infrastructure that every AI application must run through keep compounding. ClickHouse is exactly that foundational layer. It is a real time analytical database engine originally built inside Yandex, optimized for the exact query patterns that AI agents, LLM observability pipelines, and machine learning infrastructure generate, massive write volumes, complex aggregations, and sub-second response at scale. It processes hundreds of billions of rows per second, serves over 2,000 enterprise customers including Cloudflare, Uber and ByteDance, and grew 300% in a single year. In January 2026, a $400 million Series D valued ClickHouse at $15 billion more than double its $6 billion valuation just eight months prior. Here is where Nebius comes in. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, an asset that traces back to its Yandex origins. At ClickHouse's current $15 billion valuation, that stake is worth approximately $4.2 billion, sitting largely unrecognized on Nebius's balance sheet while most market coverage focuses entirely on the AI cloud business. A ClickHouse IPO, which the company is actively positioning toward, would force the market to mark that position to full public market value for the first time and could alone reprice Nebius meaningfully. But that hidden asset is just one layer of the bull case. The core AI cloud business just printed 684% year over year revenue growth, $399 million in Q1 2026 against $50 million a year prior. AI specific revenue grew 841% and now represents 98% of total revenue. The moat underneath those numbers is 3.5 gigawatts of secured power capacity, a $27 billion five year contract with Meta, a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, all stacked on top of a ClickHouse stake that the market is still not fully pricing in. Long Nebius and make sure to follow me Melvin for more underlooked AI oppurtunities.

Melvin

69,634 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Nebius will be a TRILLION dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). Brad Gerstner's Altimeter just said on camera that they are invested in ClickHouse, and explained exactly why in one sentence: "If you're in the data infrastructure layer, then token consumption is driving a lot more consumption of your basic services." The flip side of that point is equally important. Gerstner added that the closer you are to a point solution, a single use app built on top of AI, "that feels like you're on the front of the conveyor belt heading toward the guillotine." Models get better, apps get commoditized and the companies that own the foundational infrastructure that every AI application must run through keep compounding. ClickHouse is exactly that foundational layer. It is a real time analytical database engine originally built inside Yandex, optimized for the exact query patterns that AI agents, LLM observability pipelines, and machine learning infrastructure generate, massive write volumes, complex aggregations, and sub-second response at scale. It processes hundreds of billions of rows per second, serves over 2,000 enterprise customers including Cloudflare, Uber and ByteDance, and grew 300% in a single year. In January 2026, a $400 million Series D valued ClickHouse at $15 billion more than double its $6 billion valuation just eight months prior. Here is where Nebius comes in. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, an asset that traces back to its Yandex origins. At ClickHouse's current $15 billion valuation, that stake is worth approximately $4.2 billion, sitting largely unrecognized on Nebius's balance sheet while most market coverage focuses entirely on the AI cloud business. A ClickHouse IPO, which the company is actively positioning toward, would force the market to mark that position to full public market value for the first time and could alone reprice Nebius meaningfully. But that hidden asset is just one layer of the bull case. The core AI cloud business just printed 684% year over year revenue growth, $399 million in Q1 2026 against $50 million a year prior. AI specific revenue grew 841% and now represents 98% of total revenue. The moat underneath those numbers is 3.5 gigawatts of secured power capacity, a $27 billion five year contract with Meta, a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, all stacked on top of a ClickHouse stake that the market is still not fully pricing in. Milk Road Pro remains massively bullish on Nebius, we called it early, we are up huge on the position, and we continue to track every development across AI infrastructure before it becomes obvious to the rest of the market. Come join us to see our full Nebius thesis and every other position in the portfolio, link below!

Nebius will be a TRILLION dollar company and here is exactly why (Save this). Brad Gerstner's Altimeter just said on camera that they are invested in ClickHouse, and explained exactly why in one sentence: "If you're in the data infrastructure layer, then token consumption is driving a lot more consumption of your basic services." The flip side of that point is equally important. Gerstner added that the closer you are to a point solution, a single use app built on top of AI, "that feels like you're on the front of the conveyor belt heading toward the guillotine." Models get better, apps get commoditized and the companies that own the foundational infrastructure that every AI application must run through keep compounding. ClickHouse is exactly that foundational layer. It is a real time analytical database engine originally built inside Yandex, optimized for the exact query patterns that AI agents, LLM observability pipelines, and machine learning infrastructure generate, massive write volumes, complex aggregations, and sub-second response at scale. It processes hundreds of billions of rows per second, serves over 2,000 enterprise customers including Cloudflare, Uber and ByteDance, and grew 300% in a single year. In January 2026, a $400 million Series D valued ClickHouse at $15 billion more than double its $6 billion valuation just eight months prior. Here is where Nebius comes in. Nebius holds a 28% stake in ClickHouse, an asset that traces back to its Yandex origins. At ClickHouse's current $15 billion valuation, that stake is worth approximately $4.2 billion, sitting largely unrecognized on Nebius's balance sheet while most market coverage focuses entirely on the AI cloud business. A ClickHouse IPO, which the company is actively positioning toward, would force the market to mark that position to full public market value for the first time and could alone reprice Nebius meaningfully. But that hidden asset is just one layer of the bull case. The core AI cloud business just printed 684% year over year revenue growth, $399 million in Q1 2026 against $50 million a year prior. AI specific revenue grew 841% and now represents 98% of total revenue. The moat underneath those numbers is 3.5 gigawatts of secured power capacity, a $27 billion five year contract with Meta, a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, and a Microsoft partnership ramping to full run rate in 2027, all stacked on top of a ClickHouse stake that the market is still not fully pricing in. Milk Road Pro remains massively bullish on Nebius, we called it early, we are up huge on the position, and we continue to track every development across AI infrastructure before it becomes obvious to the rest of the market. Come join us to see our full Nebius thesis and every other position in the portfolio, link below!

Milk Road AI

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🚀 Brad Gerstner on Elon Musk's ace card with xAI's compute infrastructure: "There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens... Now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He said he was building AWS all along or EWS (Elon Web Services) all along. I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue... That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here." — Brad Gerstner on The All-In Podcast

🚀 Brad Gerstner on Elon Musk's ace card with xAI's compute infrastructure: "There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens... Now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He said he was building AWS all along or EWS (Elon Web Services) all along. I estimate that this is going to generate in this year an incremental $4 to $5 billion of revenue... That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here." — Brad Gerstner on The All-In Podcast

bg2clips

39,721 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Anish Acharya: We're going to see a "YouTube moment for software": "If you think about YouTube 20 years ago—we had lots of video and lots of television, and it was high production quality, and it wasn't clear that we needed more and 20 years later, YouTube's a $550 billion enterprise that would be one of the biggest companies in the world if it was independent." "I think the same thing is going to happen for software. People want to make software, and for the first time they can—and they can distribute it and they can consume it." "Sometimes it's going to be important software. Sometimes it's going to be totally trivial. It's going to be software for a bachelor party weekend, software for a joke, software for a prompt. We have this sort of seriousness about software that we had about video and television 20 years ago." "Now it's like—I just took a video on my phone. It's going to be like—I just made an app on my phone. Same energy." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche

Anish Acharya: We're going to see a "YouTube moment for software": "If you think about YouTube 20 years ago—we had lots of video and lots of television, and it was high production quality, and it wasn't clear that we needed more and 20 years later, YouTube's a $550 billion enterprise that would be one of the biggest companies in the world if it was independent." "I think the same thing is going to happen for software. People want to make software, and for the first time they can—and they can distribute it and they can consume it." "Sometimes it's going to be important software. Sometimes it's going to be totally trivial. It's going to be software for a bachelor party weekend, software for a joke, software for a prompt. We have this sort of seriousness about software that we had about video and television 20 years ago." "Now it's like—I just took a video on my phone. It's going to be like—I just made an app on my phone. Same energy." Anish Acharya on BILLIONS with Guillaume Moubeche

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