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Japan keeps threatening to intervene in yen because its exchange value doesn't match interest rate differentials. But interest rate differentials don't really matter, so why intervene? It's all for show. Keep up appearances for the voters (who keep pressuring PMs out of office). Japan in 2025 is the very...

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Jeffrey P. Snider

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17,429 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.
14:42

The Bank of Japan Just Sent a Warning to the Entire Financial World by Raising Its Rate to a 31 Year High. Does this signal the end of the world’s cheapest money? Japan just raised interest rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995. That may sound small, but for Japan, it is a major macro turning point. After decades of zero rates, deflation, and ultra-cheap money, the Bank of Japan is now trying to normalize policy while facing a weak yen, rising imported inflation, higher energy costs, and one of the largest government debt burdens in the world. In this video, we discuss why Japan’s 1% rate hike matters far beyond Japan, from the yen carry trade and global liquidity to Japanese bonds, equities, inflation, and everyday life.

YCC Macro

50,861 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

In the absence of knowledge and understanding, they invent superstitions. The Bank of Japan is threatening to raise rates again not because Japan is facing inflation (supply problems) but because the yen is weak. What's the point? Interest rates DON'T control exchange rates. Everyone says they do because everyone says they do because that's what everyone says. Nobody ever bothers to check what the facts and evidence say. Central banking is the biggest superstition on the planet. It's as easy to debunk as Flat Earth, too, and JPY is right at the top of that list.
1:44

In the absence of knowledge and understanding, they invent superstitions. The Bank of Japan is threatening to raise rates again not because Japan is facing inflation (supply problems) but because the yen is weak. What's the point? Interest rates DON'T control exchange rates. Everyone says they do because everyone says they do because that's what everyone says. Nobody ever bothers to check what the facts and evidence say. Central banking is the biggest superstition on the planet. It's as easy to debunk as Flat Earth, too, and JPY is right at the top of that list.

Jeffrey P. Snider

11,391 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

The Bank of Japan says it is raising rates, or at least is threatening to raise them to hold back consumers from spending so that their robust demand doesn’t create more inflation. But consumers are themselves holding back because they know their incomes are nowhere near enough to make up for past, present, and any future price changes that are supply and currency matters, not actual inflation. Thus, household spending, already in the dumps, gets worse especially now after the tariff distortions have passed into global payback. In reality, BoJ is targeting the yen but doing so hoping increasingly favorable interest rates inside of Japan will strengthening JPY. Only, JPY is completely ignoring interest rates.
1:41

The Bank of Japan says it is raising rates, or at least is threatening to raise them to hold back consumers from spending so that their robust demand doesn’t create more inflation. But consumers are themselves holding back because they know their incomes are nowhere near enough to make up for past, present, and any future price changes that are supply and currency matters, not actual inflation. Thus, household spending, already in the dumps, gets worse especially now after the tariff distortions have passed into global payback. In reality, BoJ is targeting the yen but doing so hoping increasingly favorable interest rates inside of Japan will strengthening JPY. Only, JPY is completely ignoring interest rates.

Jeffrey P. Snider

28,147 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it look like other things are going up. But despite the downsides, this wealth shrinkage and reduction in buying power is favored by policy makers precisely because its impacts are less obvious than the alternatives. At such times, you should expect interest rates and the currency’s value to fall.
1:52

History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it look like other things are going up. But despite the downsides, this wealth shrinkage and reduction in buying power is favored by policy makers precisely because its impacts are less obvious than the alternatives. At such times, you should expect interest rates and the currency’s value to fall.

Ray Dalio

380,182 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump demands the US Federal Reserve SLASH interest rates to the lowest GLOBALLY, and stop strangling growth, other countries pay WAY LOWER rates "We should have the LOWEST INTEREST RATE IN THE WORLD." "This country could be at 8%-12% GDP!" 🔥 "[Kevin Warsh] has a Board. HE wants to do the right thing! But you need the consent of some people that have BAD INTENTIONS! Rates should be lowered." "Countries take money out of the US and get a lower interest rate than we do. It shouldn't be that way."
1:35

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump demands the US Federal Reserve SLASH interest rates to the lowest GLOBALLY, and stop strangling growth, other countries pay WAY LOWER rates "We should have the LOWEST INTEREST RATE IN THE WORLD." "This country could be at 8%-12% GDP!" 🔥 "[Kevin Warsh] has a Board. HE wants to do the right thing! But you need the consent of some people that have BAD INTENTIONS! Rates should be lowered." "Countries take money out of the US and get a lower interest rate than we do. It shouldn't be that way."

Eric Daugherty

64,861 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

The Trump admin is GASLIGHTING us re: no CBDCs They know they can't do CBDCs because of the Constitution, so they're backdooring them with stablecoins Iain Davis explains— "the idea of a [CBDC] is that it will give these private institutions total control of a new digital international monetary and financial system" "CBDC is programmable money that slots into that system. That's why they want it" "That's not going to work in the US because... it's a constitutional right in the United States that the people, and only the people, oversee what they call the power, quote–unquote... to coin money" "So what are you going to do about it? You need some sort of work-round" "So stablecoins and things like deposit tokens or tokenized deposits are variations of programmable digital currency. But rather than being issued by a central bank, they're issued by a commercial bank" "stablecoins... slot into the system of programmability just as easily, if not more so than a central bank digital currency. So you can attach smart contracts to any kind of digital transaction using digital currency" "Programmable digital currency and stablecoins do exactly the same thing, serve the same purpose, as central bank digital currency" This clip of Iain Davis (InThisTogether), author of The Technocratic Dark State, is taken from a Flashlights podcast (Flashlights Podcast) episode posted to Rumble on May 17, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "It's a constitutional right in the United States that the people, and only the people, oversee what they call the power, quote–unquote, it says this in the Constitution, to coin money. So the power to coin money is overseen by the people. "Now the idea of a central bank digital currency is that it will give these private institutions total control of a new digital international monetary and financial system. That's CBDC is programmable money that slots into that system. That's why they want it. "That's not going to work in the US because even though Congress, you know, Congress is the, is the dog which is wagged by the tail in this of the Fed, the Fed, you know, the Fed tells Congress what to do, not the other way round. But theoretically it could be the other way round. And theoretically the people could assert their control over the Fed if they only knew about it, which, not many people do, but they could do it, right? It's in the US Constitution. "Now that's a problem if you're going to embark on a global transformation of the entire international monetary and financial system when your leading reserve currency is the US dollar. So that's, you know, that could all go wrong very badly. "So what are you going to do about it? You need some sort of work round. How are you, how are you going to do which for the, you know, I, for many years, well, since central bank digital currency has been something that I've been looking at, I couldn't figure out why the US wasn't more enthusiastic about central bank digital currency. "Because it's the type of thing that the US administrations are usually right up— You know, they're really gung ho about that kind of centralized control of everything. That's right up their alley. So why, why don't they like it? And then it was the work of John Titus who pointed out this problem that they've got in the US with the Constitution that made me look at that and think, right. And then I started investigating that further. And he's right about that. That is a problem. "But then they obviously need some sort of workaround. How are they going to have. Because the main point of central bank digital currency from the surveillance and control aspect is that we will all need digital identity in order to access our digital wallets, which will contain the currency and the currency and the wallets and our, digital identities will all be programmable so conditions can be set on everything that we do. "Every transaction we make will be subject to condition through some sort of smart contract probably, which will control it. Right. So you know, if you say the wrong thing or you know, you, you just write the wrong thing online, you could be punished by algorithm by controlling your access to money... "And so the key to that is central bank— the programmability of central bank digital currency. But obviously that's not going to, may not work. There's a good chance that won't work in the United States which has got the US dollar reserve is an important currency. "So what are you going to do? So stablecoins and things like deposit tokens or tokenized deposits are variations of programmable digital currency. But rather than being issued by a central bank, they're issued by a commercial bank. So or in the case of stablecoins, a non-bank, a non-bank institution like Tether. So it's not a bank. "But you can use stablecoins for exactly the same. They slot into the system of programmability just as easily, if not more so than a central bank digital currency. So you can attach smart contracts to any kind of digital transaction using digital currency. Programmable digital currency and stablecoins do exactly the same thing, serve the same purpose as central bank digital currency or the other version, the commercial bank version is deposit tokens. Any of those will do. "Now in the US they've gone down the stablecoin route so they can issue the stablecoins which will be backed by US Treasuries, just like the dollar or just like any kind of dollar instrument will be one to one convertible for the US dollar. So the stablecoins are effectively the US dollar in, in digital form. "But instead of calling it a central bank digital currency, they call it issued by, it wouldn't have to be issued by the Fed. They call it a stablecoin, which is issued by a company like Tether or you know, someone like that. So it's the same system but using a workaround. And that workaround came with the Genius Act which, which came from an executive order that Trump made when he first came to office. "Because the Americans, quite rightly when they were electing their president, were concerned about central bank digital currency. I mean anyone that understands what it is should be terrified of it. So they didn't want it, and Trump promised that they wouldn't have it. Probably. I don't know whether he knew, but certainly the gaggle of technocrats that were around him knew that they weren't going down that path. Anyway, no chance of the US introducing it because of these problems we've just outlined."
6:11

The Trump admin is GASLIGHTING us re: no CBDCs They know they can't do CBDCs because of the Constitution, so they're backdooring them with stablecoins Iain Davis explains— "the idea of a [CBDC] is that it will give these private institutions total control of a new digital international monetary and financial system" "CBDC is programmable money that slots into that system. That's why they want it" "That's not going to work in the US because... it's a constitutional right in the United States that the people, and only the people, oversee what they call the power, quote–unquote... to coin money" "So what are you going to do about it? You need some sort of work-round" "So stablecoins and things like deposit tokens or tokenized deposits are variations of programmable digital currency. But rather than being issued by a central bank, they're issued by a commercial bank" "stablecoins... slot into the system of programmability just as easily, if not more so than a central bank digital currency. So you can attach smart contracts to any kind of digital transaction using digital currency" "Programmable digital currency and stablecoins do exactly the same thing, serve the same purpose, as central bank digital currency" This clip of Iain Davis (InThisTogether), author of The Technocratic Dark State, is taken from a Flashlights podcast (Flashlights Podcast) episode posted to Rumble on May 17, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "It's a constitutional right in the United States that the people, and only the people, oversee what they call the power, quote–unquote, it says this in the Constitution, to coin money. So the power to coin money is overseen by the people. "Now the idea of a central bank digital currency is that it will give these private institutions total control of a new digital international monetary and financial system. That's CBDC is programmable money that slots into that system. That's why they want it. "That's not going to work in the US because even though Congress, you know, Congress is the, is the dog which is wagged by the tail in this of the Fed, the Fed, you know, the Fed tells Congress what to do, not the other way round. But theoretically it could be the other way round. And theoretically the people could assert their control over the Fed if they only knew about it, which, not many people do, but they could do it, right? It's in the US Constitution. "Now that's a problem if you're going to embark on a global transformation of the entire international monetary and financial system when your leading reserve currency is the US dollar. So that's, you know, that could all go wrong very badly. "So what are you going to do about it? You need some sort of work round. How are you, how are you going to do which for the, you know, I, for many years, well, since central bank digital currency has been something that I've been looking at, I couldn't figure out why the US wasn't more enthusiastic about central bank digital currency. "Because it's the type of thing that the US administrations are usually right up— You know, they're really gung ho about that kind of centralized control of everything. That's right up their alley. So why, why don't they like it? And then it was the work of John Titus who pointed out this problem that they've got in the US with the Constitution that made me look at that and think, right. And then I started investigating that further. And he's right about that. That is a problem. "But then they obviously need some sort of workaround. How are they going to have. Because the main point of central bank digital currency from the surveillance and control aspect is that we will all need digital identity in order to access our digital wallets, which will contain the currency and the currency and the wallets and our, digital identities will all be programmable so conditions can be set on everything that we do. "Every transaction we make will be subject to condition through some sort of smart contract probably, which will control it. Right. So you know, if you say the wrong thing or you know, you, you just write the wrong thing online, you could be punished by algorithm by controlling your access to money... "And so the key to that is central bank— the programmability of central bank digital currency. But obviously that's not going to, may not work. There's a good chance that won't work in the United States which has got the US dollar reserve is an important currency. "So what are you going to do? So stablecoins and things like deposit tokens or tokenized deposits are variations of programmable digital currency. But rather than being issued by a central bank, they're issued by a commercial bank. So or in the case of stablecoins, a non-bank, a non-bank institution like Tether. So it's not a bank. "But you can use stablecoins for exactly the same. They slot into the system of programmability just as easily, if not more so than a central bank digital currency. So you can attach smart contracts to any kind of digital transaction using digital currency. Programmable digital currency and stablecoins do exactly the same thing, serve the same purpose as central bank digital currency or the other version, the commercial bank version is deposit tokens. Any of those will do. "Now in the US they've gone down the stablecoin route so they can issue the stablecoins which will be backed by US Treasuries, just like the dollar or just like any kind of dollar instrument will be one to one convertible for the US dollar. So the stablecoins are effectively the US dollar in, in digital form. "But instead of calling it a central bank digital currency, they call it issued by, it wouldn't have to be issued by the Fed. They call it a stablecoin, which is issued by a company like Tether or you know, someone like that. So it's the same system but using a workaround. And that workaround came with the Genius Act which, which came from an executive order that Trump made when he first came to office. "Because the Americans, quite rightly when they were electing their president, were concerned about central bank digital currency. I mean anyone that understands what it is should be terrified of it. So they didn't want it, and Trump promised that they wouldn't have it. Probably. I don't know whether he knew, but certainly the gaggle of technocrats that were around him knew that they weren't going down that path. Anyway, no chance of the US introducing it because of these problems we've just outlined."

Sense Receptor

13,996 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 UPDATE: President Trump RIPS the US Federal Reserve for keeping our interest rates higher than other countries weaker than us, saying our GDP could be 12% PERCENT "We should have the LOWEST INTEREST RATE IN THE WORLD." "This country could be at 8%, 9%, 10%, 12% GDP! That's what it SHOULD be." 🔥 "[Kevin Warsh] has a Board. HE wants to do the right thing! But you need the consent of some people that have BAD INTENTIONS! Rates should be lowered." "Countries take money out of the US and get a lower interest rate than we do. It shouldn't be that way."
1:36

🚨 UPDATE: President Trump RIPS the US Federal Reserve for keeping our interest rates higher than other countries weaker than us, saying our GDP could be 12% PERCENT "We should have the LOWEST INTEREST RATE IN THE WORLD." "This country could be at 8%, 9%, 10%, 12% GDP! That's what it SHOULD be." 🔥 "[Kevin Warsh] has a Board. HE wants to do the right thing! But you need the consent of some people that have BAD INTENTIONS! Rates should be lowered." "Countries take money out of the US and get a lower interest rate than we do. It shouldn't be that way."

Eric Daugherty

79,949 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Dr Kamau Thugge giving some colour to the decision taken in yesterday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. · The adjustment of the Discount Window from 300.0bps to 75.0bps above the benchmark is a crucial move · This means that the Discount Window rate is now aligned with the upper limit of the interest rate corridor given that the width of the Interbank Rate corridor has been adjusted from +/- 150.0bps to +/- 75.0bps around the benchmark · Essentially, the Central Bank has addressed the misalignment of having a corridor in place while the Discount Window rate trends above it · The Central Bank is expected to conclude the on-site inspection of banks who are not transmitting the lower yields to end consumers by June 2025 after which banks found to be in contravention will be subject to fines
1:34

Dr Kamau Thugge giving some colour to the decision taken in yesterday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. · The adjustment of the Discount Window from 300.0bps to 75.0bps above the benchmark is a crucial move · This means that the Discount Window rate is now aligned with the upper limit of the interest rate corridor given that the width of the Interbank Rate corridor has been adjusted from +/- 150.0bps to +/- 75.0bps around the benchmark · Essentially, the Central Bank has addressed the misalignment of having a corridor in place while the Discount Window rate trends above it · The Central Bank is expected to conclude the on-site inspection of banks who are not transmitting the lower yields to end consumers by June 2025 after which banks found to be in contravention will be subject to fines

Julians Amboko

16,427 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🇯🇵💴 The Post-1971 Dollar System Is Finished Alastair Crooke (Alastair Crooke) on Bessent’s “Bail out Japan” note: pure market signaling—front-run the intervention. Using euros, not dollars, to prop the yen exposes the dollar’s underlying frailty. Japan’s 14-15% zombie firms already cannot cover interest; any rate rise detonates them and cascades into the U.S. Treasury market. Rates are climbing regardless. This is the post-1971 floating-rate system devouring itself. “They are desperately trying to mount a rescue of Japan, even to the extent of the old trick of letting CNN or someone film a note on the desk of Bessent as he’s making a statement that says, ’Bail out Japan.’ Look, I mean, it’s so obvious—a message to the market. Come on, get in there quickly. Help me bail it out because I’m going to do that so you can front-run it and you can make money on front-running it. But, I mean, the key giveaway about how dangerous this is: what was he using to bail out the Japanese yen? What was he using? He was using euros. He wasn’t printing dollars to do it or selling dollars. He was selling euros to buy the yen to strengthen the currency. And that means that he’s very worried that the dollar is very weak, that he has to use the euro to help support it. And I think he’s very worried because if interest rates go up in Japan, big trouble for Japan because many of the companies—a large portion, 14-15%, I don’t know what it is exactly—are zombie companies. Their profits don’t cover the interest that they need to pay on their debt. In other countries, it would be called being bankrupt, but they’re called zombie companies. They just don’t have the money to pay. So, if interest rates go up in Japan, bang, this is a major crisis in Japan and therefore a major crisis in the bond market in America. Interest rates are already going up. I’m sure we’ll see them going up further this morning even though the markets—the usual algos—reacted to Trump saying, ’Oh, no, the Iranians asked for talks,’ which they did not. And ’we’re close to finalizing an agreement on Hormuz with Oman.’ Yes, further, further deep right down the end of the line when the war’s finished and everything’s agreed, then there’ll be an agreement with Oman.” This is the post-1971 floating-rate system devouring itself. The dollar is weaker than the system can admit. The zombie companies are the product. The U.S. Treasury market is the vulnerable point. The system cannot be reformed. It must be replaced.
2:33

🇯🇵💴 The Post-1971 Dollar System Is Finished Alastair Crooke (Alastair Crooke) on Bessent’s “Bail out Japan” note: pure market signaling—front-run the intervention. Using euros, not dollars, to prop the yen exposes the dollar’s underlying frailty. Japan’s 14-15% zombie firms already cannot cover interest; any rate rise detonates them and cascades into the U.S. Treasury market. Rates are climbing regardless. This is the post-1971 floating-rate system devouring itself. “They are desperately trying to mount a rescue of Japan, even to the extent of the old trick of letting CNN or someone film a note on the desk of Bessent as he’s making a statement that says, ’Bail out Japan.’ Look, I mean, it’s so obvious—a message to the market. Come on, get in there quickly. Help me bail it out because I’m going to do that so you can front-run it and you can make money on front-running it. But, I mean, the key giveaway about how dangerous this is: what was he using to bail out the Japanese yen? What was he using? He was using euros. He wasn’t printing dollars to do it or selling dollars. He was selling euros to buy the yen to strengthen the currency. And that means that he’s very worried that the dollar is very weak, that he has to use the euro to help support it. And I think he’s very worried because if interest rates go up in Japan, big trouble for Japan because many of the companies—a large portion, 14-15%, I don’t know what it is exactly—are zombie companies. Their profits don’t cover the interest that they need to pay on their debt. In other countries, it would be called being bankrupt, but they’re called zombie companies. They just don’t have the money to pay. So, if interest rates go up in Japan, bang, this is a major crisis in Japan and therefore a major crisis in the bond market in America. Interest rates are already going up. I’m sure we’ll see them going up further this morning even though the markets—the usual algos—reacted to Trump saying, ’Oh, no, the Iranians asked for talks,’ which they did not. And ’we’re close to finalizing an agreement on Hormuz with Oman.’ Yes, further, further deep right down the end of the line when the war’s finished and everything’s agreed, then there’ll be an agreement with Oman.” This is the post-1971 floating-rate system devouring itself. The dollar is weaker than the system can admit. The zombie companies are the product. The U.S. Treasury market is the vulnerable point. The system cannot be reformed. It must be replaced.

🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉

53,221 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

Four of Asia's central banks are hitting the panic button at the same time. India. Indonesia. South Korea. Japan. They are calling it a currency crisis. It is really a dollar shortage. Almost everything that matters trades in dollars. Oil. Food. Materials. The debt everyone borrowed. When a local currency falls, all of it gets more expensive. That starts a loop. A weaker currency drives more dollar demand. More demand weakens the currency further. Japan drew a line at 160 yen. It sold $76 billion defending it. The yen is back below 160 anyway. India has burned through more than $110 billion in forex tools. Its banks now pay non-residents 7.1% on five-year deposits. A five-year US Treasury pays about 4.3%. They are paying up just to pull dollars in. Indonesia hiked rates to 5.5% in an emergency off-calendar meeting. Its reserves are falling at the longest streak since 2018. South Korea inspected its foreign exchange banks for the first time in 14 years. Its stock market fell 8% Monday, rose 8% Tuesday, fell 5% Wednesday. That is not policy management. That is desperation. The problem is not interest rate differentials. It is the dollar itself. There are not enough dollars to go around. And energy keeps raising the need. Selling reserves and hiking rates can slow a currency for a day. It cannot create new dollars. This does not stay in Asia. The region sits at the center of global trade and finance. When the dollar gets this tight, the stress does not stop at the border. It travels.
23:05

Four of Asia's central banks are hitting the panic button at the same time. India. Indonesia. South Korea. Japan. They are calling it a currency crisis. It is really a dollar shortage. Almost everything that matters trades in dollars. Oil. Food. Materials. The debt everyone borrowed. When a local currency falls, all of it gets more expensive. That starts a loop. A weaker currency drives more dollar demand. More demand weakens the currency further. Japan drew a line at 160 yen. It sold $76 billion defending it. The yen is back below 160 anyway. India has burned through more than $110 billion in forex tools. Its banks now pay non-residents 7.1% on five-year deposits. A five-year US Treasury pays about 4.3%. They are paying up just to pull dollars in. Indonesia hiked rates to 5.5% in an emergency off-calendar meeting. Its reserves are falling at the longest streak since 2018. South Korea inspected its foreign exchange banks for the first time in 14 years. Its stock market fell 8% Monday, rose 8% Tuesday, fell 5% Wednesday. That is not policy management. That is desperation. The problem is not interest rate differentials. It is the dollar itself. There are not enough dollars to go around. And energy keeps raising the need. Selling reserves and hiking rates can slow a currency for a day. It cannot create new dollars. This does not stay in Asia. The region sits at the center of global trade and finance. When the dollar gets this tight, the stress does not stop at the border. It travels.

Jeffrey P. Snider

47,418 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Warren Buffett: "Interest rates are the basis of all value." "If you knew interest rates were going to be zero for a hundred years, you would think 1% was a great rate of return. But you also would know if you bought something yielding 1% and rates went to 8%, you'd lose practically all of your capital." "It's an enormous factor, [but] we don't know the answer." (CNBC || 2020)
0:49

Warren Buffett: "Interest rates are the basis of all value." "If you knew interest rates were going to be zero for a hundred years, you would think 1% was a great rate of return. But you also would know if you bought something yielding 1% and rates went to 8%, you'd lose practically all of your capital." "It's an enormous factor, [but] we don't know the answer." (CNBC || 2020)

Kevin Carpenter

622,236 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE FOR MARKETS IS BACK. The Bank of Japan is preparing faster interest rate hikes while actively intervening to strengthen the yen. This is the exact combination that triggered one of the biggest global market selloffs in 2024. In August 2024, after the BOJ hiked rates and intervened in the yen, the S&P 500 crashed more than 8% in just 3 trading days. History doesn't always repeat but this setup should have every investor paying attention.
0:38

THE BIGGEST NIGHTMARE FOR MARKETS IS BACK. The Bank of Japan is preparing faster interest rate hikes while actively intervening to strengthen the yen. This is the exact combination that triggered one of the biggest global market selloffs in 2024. In August 2024, after the BOJ hiked rates and intervened in the yen, the S&P 500 crashed more than 8% in just 3 trading days. History doesn't always repeat but this setup should have every investor paying attention.

Crypto Rover

146,914 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

The latest monthly inflation figure will be published in the next hour. City experts are predicting a rate of 3.5% for November. That would be a slight fall from 3.6% in the previous month. It comes the day before the Bank of England will decide whether to cut interest rates. Richard Gaisford reports.
1:41

The latest monthly inflation figure will be published in the next hour. City experts are predicting a rate of 3.5% for November. That would be a slight fall from 3.6% in the previous month. It comes the day before the Bank of England will decide whether to cut interest rates. Richard Gaisford reports.

Good Morning Britain

16,645 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Japan's yen is defying all the textbooks. BoJ is raising rates, JGB yields are soaring, yet JPY keeps FALLING forcing officials in Tokyo to threaten intervention. Authorities think their currencies are wrong therefore the need to intervene, but what's really happening is central bankers and Economists are wrong about currencies which is why their interventions fail. Sad thing is, it's not difficult to figure out why JPY is falling in spite of the rate hikes and higher yields. You just have to stop listening to the mainstream conventional "wisdom" on currencies. And money. And finance. Economy, too. Basically everything.
1:07

Japan's yen is defying all the textbooks. BoJ is raising rates, JGB yields are soaring, yet JPY keeps FALLING forcing officials in Tokyo to threaten intervention. Authorities think their currencies are wrong therefore the need to intervene, but what's really happening is central bankers and Economists are wrong about currencies which is why their interventions fail. Sad thing is, it's not difficult to figure out why JPY is falling in spite of the rate hikes and higher yields. You just have to stop listening to the mainstream conventional "wisdom" on currencies. And money. And finance. Economy, too. Basically everything.

Jeffrey P. Snider

43,466 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

The Japanese may have intervened in their currency markets earlier today. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told me about this that the U.S. believes excess volatility in the Yen isn't healthy. The Secretary adds, “The Japanese yen seems very undervalued to me. The currency is very cheap. The economy is doing well. The Prime Minister is very popular and enacting very strong policies. And I think we're going to see the fundamentals come through.” He believes when that realization comes through “… the market will realize the yen is undervalued and it should strengthen.” Bessent goes on to say he’s not concerned the Yen is strengthening against the dollar saying, “ …The currency markets tend to overshoot. And I believe the Japanese yen has substantially overshot what would be called an equilibrium price.” #Japan #Yen #Treasury
1:00

The Japanese may have intervened in their currency markets earlier today. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told me about this that the U.S. believes excess volatility in the Yen isn't healthy. The Secretary adds, “The Japanese yen seems very undervalued to me. The currency is very cheap. The economy is doing well. The Prime Minister is very popular and enacting very strong policies. And I think we're going to see the fundamentals come through.” He believes when that realization comes through “… the market will realize the yen is undervalued and it should strengthen.” Bessent goes on to say he’s not concerned the Yen is strengthening against the dollar saying, “ …The currency markets tend to overshoot. And I believe the Japanese yen has substantially overshot what would be called an equilibrium price.” #Japan #Yen #Treasury

Edward Lawrence

184,969 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

The Bank of Japan finally admits the carry trade is the problem. So they raise rates to fix it. Except the pension funds and insurance companies they need to buy Japanese bonds are refusing. Not because rates are too low. Because the policy environment made investing in Japan too unpredictable in the first place. So the hikes meant to strengthen the yen are pushing the same institutions further away, and the yen weakens anyway. They diagnosed the disease correctly for once. They just cannot write a prescription that matches reality, because the whole framework they are working from does not match reality. That is the pattern. Not just in Japan.
5:00

The Bank of Japan finally admits the carry trade is the problem. So they raise rates to fix it. Except the pension funds and insurance companies they need to buy Japanese bonds are refusing. Not because rates are too low. Because the policy environment made investing in Japan too unpredictable in the first place. So the hikes meant to strengthen the yen are pushing the same institutions further away, and the yen weakens anyway. They diagnosed the disease correctly for once. They just cannot write a prescription that matches reality, because the whole framework they are working from does not match reality. That is the pattern. Not just in Japan.

Jeffrey P. Snider

208,851 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

The Bank of Japan raised rates to save the yen. The yen got weaker. Here's the part nobody in the mainstream story explains: raising rates was supposed to make yen assets more attractive and keep money home. Instead it made the JGB market less stable, so Japanese institutions want to invest overseas even more. Meanwhile small and midsize Japanese companies are hedging currency exposure, and the swings are blowing through those hedges. Unlike the big firms, they can't just go source dollars freely. Bankruptcies are climbing while everyone is being told inflation finally coming back is a good sign. The only time the yen has actually strengthened in the last few years wasn't policy at all. It was August 2024, when the carry trade itself reversed on its own. Rate hikes didn't do that. A dollar funding problem did.
4:47

The Bank of Japan raised rates to save the yen. The yen got weaker. Here's the part nobody in the mainstream story explains: raising rates was supposed to make yen assets more attractive and keep money home. Instead it made the JGB market less stable, so Japanese institutions want to invest overseas even more. Meanwhile small and midsize Japanese companies are hedging currency exposure, and the swings are blowing through those hedges. Unlike the big firms, they can't just go source dollars freely. Bankruptcies are climbing while everyone is being told inflation finally coming back is a good sign. The only time the yen has actually strengthened in the last few years wasn't policy at all. It was August 2024, when the carry trade itself reversed on its own. Rate hikes didn't do that. A dollar funding problem did.

Jeffrey P. Snider

29,353 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen