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Japan's largest and most respected homebuilder, Sekisui House, has entered the Las Vegas market. The Japanese wish to dominate the American construction industry, as they have in automobiles and shipbuilding, with Korean companies like Samsung and Hyundai. Sekisui House, Sumitomo Forestry, and Daiwa House now rank as the 6th,...

11,061 次观看 • 21 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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This is quite crazy. According to former Assistant Secretary of Defense Chas Freeman (one of the rare senior US officials that I admire), the Trump administration couldn't even explain to the Japanese negotiating team what they were looking to achieve with the tariffs. Here's what Freeman said: "The Japanese have just been in Washington. Their experience apparently was they went to talk to the American leadership on this matter, and the American leadership said 'what are you offering?' And the Japanese said 'well, what is it that you want?' And the Americans could not explain what they wanted." Freeman also noted, correctly, that "the United States [broke] virtually every agreement it has agreed to in recent decades including the replacement for NAFTA with proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico that was negotiated by Mr. Trump in his first term." Which doesn't exactly encourage countries to make a deal with Trump: what's the point? Which is why Freeman believes that China won't go for negotiations and has instead decided to "wait [America] out". As he puts it: "What is [China's] incentive to negotiate with the US when the US has no stated objectives that make sense and no record of compliance with its own agreements? I think the Chinese have decided they will wait us out and see how Americans like Walmart and Amazon denuded of products." Fundamentally and somewhat paradoxically, that's the thing Trump the self-anointed "dealmaker" obviously doesn't get: at the end of the day dealmaking is built on credibility and consistency, and America has now neither.

Arnaud Bertrand

2,243,745 次观看 • 1 年前

Japan’s capital is moving. That is not a slogan. It is a balance-sheet decision forced by the Chinese Communist Party’s own record. As Tokyo–Beijing relations have deteriorated, Japanese firms have cut net investment in China from about $12.5 billion in 2021 to an estimated $1.7 billion in 2025, while flows into India have risen and, for several years running, exceeded those into China. In July, Japanese companies announced $12.5 billion in Indian deals during Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit. In late August, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal brought a 200-member business delegation to Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka to lock in more of that capital. Japan is now the largest Asia-Pacific source of Global Capability Centres in India, with more than 100 firms using the country for engineering, AI and product work. Japanese banks have followed: MUFG’s $4.4 billion stake in Shriram Finance, SMBC’s position in Yes Bank, and Mizuho’s move on Avendus. This is not charity. It is risk management. The CCP has spent a decade teaching partners what over-reliance costs: sudden export bans, opaque national-security raids on foreign staff, industrial policy that copies then crowds out investors, and military pressure around Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands. A party that treats commerce as an instrument of political control cannot be a stable long-term host for Japanese factories, technology and savings. Japan is not “leaving China overnight.” It is ending the illusion that the world’s second-largest market can be treated as politically normal. Diversifying into India—large, growing, and not run by a Leninist party that weaponizes supply chains, dilutes concentration risk that Tokyo can no longer ignore. That is the hard measure. Democracies that keep feeding a system built to extract leverage will keep paying for it. Japan is choosing otherwise. The numbers, not the speeches, already show it. ACI — Aric Chen | Insights Aric’s note: The video is a related news segment from the World News I anchor.

Aric Chen

19,964 次观看 • 6 天前

If this weren’t so tragic, it would be hilarious. This regime just can’t help itself when it comes to blame shifting. When the US was the manufacturing powerhouse of the world and was getting exponentially richer each year, providing Europe with the materials to rebuild after WWII, the greed of the rich dictated that they wanted yet more profit. Human labour was their biggest cost and as such was inhibiting their bottom line. So under Reagan, they decided to throw American workers under the bus and ship jobs and in some cases whole manufacturing plants to China. That was a conscious and deliberate decision. This accelerated under Clinton, as the sole focus of American corporations was on profit. They were happy to destroy US manufacturing to simply make more money. China said ‘Thanks very much’ and used the American investment to lift 850 million Chinese out of absolute poverty and build the most advanced infrastructure in the world. They did that with greedy American’s money because they don’t have a shareholder class. As a result, China now has the most advanced automated manufacturing systems and are now the manufacturing capital of the world. The American response? Play the victim, impose tariffs and attempt to choke Chinese progress and innovation by taxing Americans to do it. The result? China has a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, as well as infrastructure across Africa, Europe and South America. It controls 80% of global rare earth processing and owns almost $700 billion of U.S. sovereign debt. That’s before we talk about them seeking to dominate the global AI Tech Stack and robotics space, all while leading the world in nuclear technology and cheap renewable energy, outpacing US energy generation capacity. Don’t blame China for the biggest economic fuck up in history. As a result of Trump’s short sighted imbecilic policies, is far from hot, it’s simply a legend it its own lunch break. His obsession with power and stuffing his own pockets with money is breaking America. The American people deserve better and above all deserve to know the truth, that this corrupt regime is NOT winning on anything except economic and geopolitical incompetence at which they have become world champions. Trump’s delusional belief that the U.S. is respected is embarrassing. The world is laughing, in the knowledge that it is rewiring trade and security ties quietly in the background. Inside a decade the U.S. is facing irrelevance in what will be a new world order in which they no longer call the shots. Empires rise and fall as do reserve currencies. China can smell blood in the water and if it’s one thing China excels at, it’s playing the long game. It doesn’t have to worry about four year election cycles or a fickle voting public. It can wait as the economic lifeblood is drained from a nation eating itself alive. They’re happy to wait, because they have global infrastructure in place, highly advanced manufacturing and AI capable economy with a pipeline of highly educated graduates. Their shift away from fossil fuel imports dependency with an objective to electrify the nation using low cost renewable and next generation nuclear energy, is all baked into their roadmap. The days of America dictating the future are receding. The change will not happen overnight, and China is fine with that. They’re prepared to wait as long as it takes for the U.S. to slowly self suffocate. The sad thing is, because of Trump, and his treatment of longstanding allies, nobody will lift a finger to help the U.S. without the kind of concessions that will further diminish American standing on the world stage. If Democrats think it just needs a change of government to make things better, those days are long gone. It will take a generation to repair the damage done. People don’t easily forget extortion attempts and arrogant posturing. We are at a true inflection point, sadly it’s not one recognised by the delusional convicted criminal in the White House.

𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰

80,713 次观看 • 6 个月前

California Rep Young Kim “My family lived the horrors of communism firsthand in Korea. I refuse to let Zohran Mamdani and the far left peddle communism-lite here” “As a Korean American who grew up in the aftermath of the Korean War, I have witnessed the horrors of socialism firsthand. I always say, if you want to see the difference between socialism and freedom, just look at the Korean peninsula at night. South Korea shines with opportunity. North Korea is trapped in darkness. Time and time again throughout history, socialism has led to disaster, starvation, imprisonment, and the death of over 100 million people worldwide. My own family lived those horrors. My mother-in-law risked her life crossing the DMZ lines multiple times to rescue loved ones from the North Korean regime. To this day, tens of thousands of Korean families remain separated by a system that tears apart communities and crushes basic human dignity. Now more than ever, as socialist ideas gain traction here at home, and as our nation's largest city and financial capital has elected not just a socialist, but a communist as mayor, we must firmly demand our capitalist free market system which empowers Americans of all backgrounds to achieve freedom, opportunity, and prosperity. I know what America represents, because I remember my first glimpse of freedom as a young girl, looking up wide-eyed as U.S. soldiers tossed candy from their trucks in the communities that I lived. Today, as one of the first Korean American woman to serve in Congress, that freedom tastes just as sweet. Stories like these can only happen in America. As a member of Congress, I will always fight for the American dream and for our free market system that keeps it within reach for everyday Americans”

Wall Street Apes

140,567 次观看 • 9 个月前

Today, we're launching Base Core, our own battery designed & built in Texas, and announcing our $1B Series D to bring it to homes across the country. Three years ago, we started Base with a belief that batteries were the unlock to energy abundance. We saw battery storage as the foundation of a modern energy system, and believed we could win the market with vertical integration, technology, and relentless execution (what we now call Base Pace). So we set out to build a network of distributed batteries to deliver affordable, reliable electricity to homeowners and utilities. While the job is far from finished, the launch of Base Core is the most meaningful step in that plan. We’ve spent the last few years learning hard lessons about building a distributed battery fleet, going from 1 install per day in June of ‘24 to 100 installs per day in June of ‘26. These lessons - how the battery is shipped, installed, used, and monitored - informed the design of Core. Now, Core will be the foundation of the company's next phase of growth. Base Core is a first-of-its-kind home battery. At ~40 kWh it is 3x the size of most home batteries, providing up to 36 hours of backup for the average home. In the event of multi-day outage, Core is equipped with a (first of its kind) generator port - pull out a small portable generator and charge the battery back up to keep your home running as long as you need. When an outage does happen, the backup is seamless - most members won't even notice the grid went down. It's built to withstand Texas summers, Chicago Winters, and everything in between. And finally, it’s manufactured by our team in Austin, at Base Factory 1, right across the street from our HQ. This new capital will bring Core to more homes and to accelerate our ambition beyond batteries. The round is co-led by Ribbit, Addition, Valor, and JP Morgan, with participation from new major investors D1, Sands, Coatue, Layer Global, and Energy Impact Partners. All of Base’s major existing investors are re-investing, including Thrive, Altimeter, Lightspeed, a16z, CapitalG, Trust, and more. This brings our valuation to $13B. As we enter the most important growth period in the history of the electricity industry, our mission has not changed - advance human prosperity by delivering the world's most affordable and reliable electricity. Our strategy has not changed - technology, plus vertical integration, plus relentless execution, leads to a compounding cost advantage. What has changed is the scope of our ambition - this new capital, along with the team and capabilities we've built over the last three years, positions us to build technology across the electric stack, including what it takes to serve surging demand from AI, and to deepen our partnerships with utilities as they work to meet rising demands. Electricity is the largest and most essential industry in the world, and it does not have a defining technology company. The company that delivers the most affordable, reliable power will be one of the largest and most impactful companies in the world. We intend to build it. If you'd like to join us, reach out. Onwards.

Zach Dell

681,006 次观看 • 1 个月前

“I would call Westinghouse Electric Company an American Company. It’s a legacy American company… it has a Canadian partner in Cameco Corporation but it’s an American company.” United States Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. He went on to say. "This is a plan to partner across the country to build a large amount of power…and to do so in a way that’s efficient…to re-stand up the supply chain IN THE UNITED STATES.” It doesn’t get any clearer than this. It’s time that Canadian policymakers like Timothy Hodgson wake up to the reality that building Westinghouse reactors in Canada will sacrifice huge economic benefits, and make us dependent on an increasingly unreliable and even hostile partner. The policy with the clear return on investment for what will be some of Canada’s largest capital projects of the 21st-century is clear. Investing in CANDU, our national reactor technology, locks in energy sovereignty, and 100 years of high productivity value add jobs in engineering services, component replacement and fuel fabrication, jobs that are nearly all based in the United States in the case of U.S. headquartered Westinghouse AP1000 reactors. We should not be making 100 year 50-100 billion dollar bets on U.S. generosity and goodwill. We have every indication that there is a strong "America First" tendency firmly rooted in the American body politic that will continue to rear its ugly head long after the Trump presidency has passed. Now that the USA has made the decision to invest 80 billion into Westinghouse projects south of the border in exchange for a future 20% stake in the company we can suffer no illusions about any false equivalency between Westinghouse and CANDU as Canadian champions. In 1980 Canada had 13 large CANDU reactors under simultaneous construction in 3 different countries around the world. These reactors have gone on to be the 3rd most widely deployed reactor technnology in the world alongside the American Pressurized and Boiling Water Reactor and have been amongst the top performers in the global fleet. In the aftermath of the collapse of Canadian telecoms giants and aviation aspirations its time to drop the inferioriy complex and lean into one of Canada's last bastions of high productivity, value add Canadian intellectual property and jobs. We have every incentive to do so.

chris keefer

12,422 次观看 • 10 个月前

This video has recently gone viral on Chinese social media. The man in the video arrived in the U.S. at the age of 40 and lived here for 25 years, eventually making a living selling cigarettes in Flushing, NY. He complained that life in the U.S. was exhausting and that American society was unwilling to embrace or accept him; ultimately, he returned to China. He initially went to LA to join his sister, then traveled to Chicago, Missouri, and Michigan, before finally winding up in Flushing. He claimed to have witnessed America’s decline from a position of supreme confidence to its current deteriorating state. He complained about the difficulty of earning money and the high cost of living, noting that most Chinese immigrants could not find stable employment and were stuck in the "usual" trades: massage therapy, home renovation, and Chinese restaurants. He had previously worked as a bus driver, shuttling gamblers to and from Atlantic City. He had wanted to return to China as early as 2008, envious of the fact that people back home owned their own homes and land. He found life in the U.S. monotonous—a daily routine of work, eating, sleeping, and visiting the casino. He did not want to end up like so many others—drifters surviving by begging or dealing drugs. He believed American society was plagued by three intractable problems: crime, drugs, and racial discrimination. He felt that Chinese immigrants suffered the worst racial discrimination and were not accepted by American society; they were unable to integrate, a struggle that extended even to those in white-collar jobs. Finally, he summed things up with a quote from monster Mao Zedong: "American imperialism is rotting day by day." Commentary: He is not alone; the majority of Chinese in Chinatowns are just like him. Upon arriving in the U.S., they expect the country to provide them with the best jobs, the highest salaries, and upscale housing. Yet, the vast majority of Chinese in Chinatowns lack the professional skills the U.S. needs; like this man, they refuse to learn even a single word of English, no matter how many years they live here. They assumed that Americans ought to speak Chinese. They complain that the U.S. is unwilling to accommodate them—or even discriminates against them—yet even after becoming U.S. citizens, they refuse to vote. They cannot name their city's mayor, cannot understand American newspapers or TV, and consume only Chinese media from Chinatowns. No matter how long they live in the U.S., they still regard Mao Zedong as the world's greatest leader and believe the Communist Party liberated China. His best course of action is, of course, to leave the U.S. and return to China to enjoy his great socialism. Most people in Chinatowns should do the same: leave the U.S. and return to China to enjoy socialism or communism.

Bin Xie

576,496 次观看 • 10 天前

BREAKING NEWS: Circle has announced that we are moving our Global HQ to New York City, building out a flagship space on one of the top floors of 1 World Trade Center, an historically important landmark in standing for American global economic leadership. Details below the video. I’m thrilled to celebrate this milestone with an event including leading financial industry firms, crypto industry leaders and policymakers. We are also sharing this announcement video that captures the moment and inspiration. Why is this important for Crypto, Circle, New York, America and the US Dollar? Since our founding, we have envisioned building a new internet financial system on the foundations of crypto – open networks, open source software, open protocols, decentralized and distributed infrastructure – and building on and expanding the capabilities of the largest and most important currencies in the world, starting with the US dollar. 11 years into our founding, that vision is coming alive in a tremendous and exciting way, with USDC now powering trillions of dollars of onchain transactions, with thousands of developers and applications building on this innovation, and with increasing legal clarity that digital dollars like USDC are new forms of legal electronic money that can be used widely around the world. As this technology explodes into the mainstream, and as Circle becomes a more and more important company and infrastructure for this new internet financial system, it became clear that we needed to plant our flag, both literally and figuratively, in the heart of Wall Street, in the most important economic center of the world, and in the great country of the United States of America. Many complain that the United States is not the right jurisdiction to build a company in our industry, and that the current government here remains hostile to this industry. I couldn’t disagree more. My view is that we are at a turning point, and that the US is about to become THE decisive leader in building and supporting this technology and financial revolution. We are an American Technology champion, and we want to demonstrate that the highest quality, the best run, the safest and the most powerful technology for the new internet financial system calls not just the US, but New York City, it’s home. Today, New York City is home to an enormous number of crypto firms that are leading and innovating in nearly every area of this industry. New York may have the most talent-density in crypto of any city in the world. It’s truly astounding, and we feel so privileged to join this thriving community of companies with a flagship headquarters in New York. After having originally founded the company in Boston, like many technology-driven companies, we have scaled out largely as a remote-first operation. Today, we span 36 US states and 14 countries, with a presence in many of the world’s leading cities including New York, SF Bay Area, Boston, London, Dublin, Paris, Singapore, Berlin, São Paulo, Taipei and more. And we are growing all around the world. But through this, New York has become a crucial nexus of talent, connectivity and a core location for where we convene. 1 World Trade Center is an awe-inspiring building. Its history is known to nearly everyone; this iconic tower, the tallest in the Western hemisphere, stands for freedom, strength, and a projection of America’s central role in the global economic system. Freedom Tower stands above the great pillars of the global economic system – Wall St., the New York Stock Exchange, the New York Federal Reserve, and more. Sitting on a top floor of the tower, Circle’s new flagship HQ is being built not as a traditional office, but rather as a powerful convening space, where we bring together all of our stakeholders to collaborate together, discover, and build the new internet financial system. It’s going to be an amazing and inspiring space that helps bring to life everything that we do at Circle. Today, we are celebrating this new HQ, joined in person in New York by industry, political and key partners who have been central to Circle’s growth and success. Join us virtually in this next phase of our journey. We are investing in New York. We are investing in America. We believe strongly that the infrastructure we are collectively building – this new internet financial system – will be the foundation for the next hundred years of global economic activity and coordination. 2024 has been a turning point year in crypto, a year when stablecoins started to truly breakout in scale, importance and usage. 2025 will be the year when this goes mainstream. As we open our new HQ to the world in early 2025, we will be thrilled to host and convene and see many of you there for this next phase of our collective journey in building a more open, inclusive, safer and efficient global economic system. JA

Jeremy Allaire - jerallaire.arc

576,014 次观看 • 2 年前

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

The All-In Podcast

98,290 次观看 • 1 年前

My friends and I confronted anti-China hawk and Richie Torres advisor Matt Pottinger at an Asia Society event. While Pottinger proposes dismantling China-U.S. relations and separating Taiwan from China (which will end up in WW3), I proposed instead that the U.S. and China are not enemies and should join hands in the Belt and Road Initiative to promote peace and economic development. For this, I was thrown to the ground and choked by security. It's no wonder Ritchie Torres is such an idiot when he's surrounded by Neo-con spooks who get paid to lie. For some background on who Pottinger is: Matt Pottinger has been a significant voice in the concerted effort to derail relations between the United States and China for the past 20 years. He began his career as a journalist in the late 1990s reporting for the Wall Street Journal on Chinese affairs. He then joined the U.S. Marine Corps, fighting three separate deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq between 2007 and 2010. Eventually, he would serve the White House for four years on the National Security Council Staff, including as deputy national security adviser to President Trump from 2019 to 2021, leading the administration’s work as the Senior Director for Asia. In 2017, Pottinger had led a special delegation from the U.S. to the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, where President Xi Jinping had proposed building a world of prosperity through the construction of massive infrastructure projects, defeating poverty, and mutual technological advancement. The Belt and Road Initiative has been integrated with the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and ASEAN, and represents a new platform for economic development among the nations of the Global South in an emerging multipolar world which prioritizes mutual benefit and cooperation. Instead of proposing that the U.S. take the opportunity to join the Belt and Road, which President Xi has made clear is open to the West to join, Pottinger has been a consistent provocateur in rapturing U.S.-China relations. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed published on March 26, 2021, “Beijing Targets American Business,” Pottinger says that American businessmen must realize that the “ideological dimension of the competition” between China and the United States “is inescapable, even central.” Protecting U.S. hegemony and preventing China’s economic growth, “will require America and its allies to consider in every policy we adopt, every bill we introduce, and every partnership that government and industry undertake, whether it increases our collective leverage in this competition or surrenders leverage to a hostile dictatorship in Beijing.” It’s no wonder that Rep. Ritchie Torres is advised on China policy by Pottinger himself. Torres is a member of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, which Pottinger has briefed and advised on policy. Both Torres and Pottinger believe in “the end of history” as author Francis Fukuyama famously declared at the end of the Cold War. This meant, that the U.S. and its Transatlantic partners would dominate the world and create a unipolar world, in which any potential power that would rise and present an alternative to the “rules-based order” would need to be stopped at all costs. Out of this theory that has guided U.S. policy since the first Bush administration, we have produced endless interventionist wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, and Ukraine. Of course, Pottinger has expressed his willingness to extend that our adventurist military policy to Taiwan, to provoke a global war with China. Such a policy is not in the American people’s interest. The U.S. economy is now decimated from 50+ years of deindustrialization and idiotic “Green” policy that has eaten up our once productive industries. China has taken the opposite path and is proposing to extend their prosperity to other nations in Africa, South America, and Asia. Instead of creating more wars to defend our hopeless imperial endeavors, we should return to our forgotten anti-colonial roots, and create a new security and development architecture with China and other willing partners.

Jose Vega — Vote Vega!

184,797 次观看 • 2 年前

Maduro begs OPEC for help as Trump ramps up the pressure, expert weighs in | Emma Bussey, Fox News Venezuelan leader's plea for help follows Trump's order to close Venezuelan airspace President Maduro’s appeal to oil-rich nations Sunday laid bare just how isolated he has become, a Latin American oil expert says, before describing Venezuela as "broke" and drowning in $150 billion of debt. The Venezuelan dictator's plea came in a letter in which he appealed to OPEC for support, claiming that U.S. "direct aggression" was undermining Venezuela’s energy sector and threatening global oil stability. In a letter to OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais and published by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil, Maduro wrote, "I hope to count on your best efforts to help stop this aggression, which is growing stronger and seriously threatens the balance of the international energy market, both for producing and consuming countries." "OPEC is unlikely to get involved," Francisco J. Monaldi, Latin American Energy Policy Director, told Fox News Digital. "Saudi Arabia is the key player, and they will not want to confront the Trump Administration. But more importantly, they never get involved in this kind of conflict," he added. In his plea, Maduro argued that U.S. actions were designed to "destabilize" Venezuela and urged oil-producing nations to show solidarity. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela targeting government officials, state-run industries like oil and mining, and financial transactions in response to concerns over corruption, trafficking and human-rights abuses. His request followed President Trump’s order to close U.S. airspace over Venezuela, a move that tightened Washington’s pressure campaign and further restricted the regime’s ability to carry out international business. Yet Monaldi stressed that Maduro knows his appeal was only symbolic and had "framed" the situation to suit his own narrative over oil. "Maduro knows perfectly well that he is not going to get the reaction that he would want, but is framing the conflict as a conflict about oil," he argued. "Venezuela could once again become a major oil producer and produce about 4 million barrels a day in less than a decade, significantly quadrupling their current output. "The country could increase production if the oil sector is opened fully to private foreign investment, and that requires regime change. Four million barrels of oil per day will be the equivalent of about $90 billion per year in revenues, which is similar to what Venezuela received in the best of times. The income could allow Venezuela to pay the debt back and recover swiftly, micro, economically, although it will take years to get to that figure." "Now Venezuela is a country that is broke and has $150 billion of debt," he said. Tensions escalated further this week after a call between President Trump and Maduro, in which Trump said the Venezuelan leader should step down and leave the country, a direct push toward political transition. "A regime change is something that the U.S., if they can achieve it, would consider a positive outcome," Monaldi said. But he emphasized that Washington’s goals extend beyond energy. Venezuela, he said, has endured years of mismanagement and instability, making it not necessarily a safe bet. The broader U.S. priority, he added, is maintaining the Western Hemisphere. "The U.S. has priorities to preserve the Western Hemisphere as a region in which geopolitical rivals are not strong," Monaldi said. "The U.S. wants to reduce crime and drug trafficking in the region and the negative effects that Venezuela has had, you know, that have impacted the rest of the Latin American region," he added.

Owen Gregorian

135,895 次观看 • 9 个月前

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.

Felix Prehn 🐶

225,427 次观看 • 9 个月前

🚨Jeffrey Sachs: The War on Russia & Iran Is Breaking the West ‼️Sorry, boys, but China is matchingyou and advancing you in most areas and doing it open source and undercutting you. ⚠️⚡️Very serious retrenchment that could come in a long period of stock market decline or it could come in a crash, depending. 📑Nothing, zero, that the Trump administration is doing has any positive bearing on any of that reality for the majority of Americans. That's number one. Second, fiscal policy. We have been in the era of tax cuts since the 1980s. Ronald Reagan, this is going back a long time ago, 46 years ago, showed that it was politically successful to promise tax cuts. Since that time, both parties have basically been on a tax cut binge, and this has led to a U.S. debt, which is now $40 trillion, is now we which is now $40 trillion, is now well above 100% of GDP. The part of that that's publicly owned rather than intragovernmental is at about 100% of GDP. And the interest costs are rising because interest rates are rising. Third reality, the rest of the world understands this. So they are diversifying out of the US dollar and out of dollar foreign exchange reserves. Our interest rates are rising. Our 30-year bond rates, which have reached about 5.3 percentage points, is now at a high for the last 20 years. And those interest rates will continue to rise. Final point, the stock market has soared in the last 10 years, basically on the AI valuations, the so-called Magnificent Seven. The U.S. stock market valuation is a ... The U.S. stock market valuation is around 240% of US GDP. That's not impossible if the US were to have super fast future growth and huge profits and all the rest. But it is historically completely out of line with any kind of historical norm. To my mind, it adds up to a mega financial bubble. I add one more point. This massive AI valuation, which is like the dot-com bubble that we had before and other bubbles that we had before, is not only so out of line with historical norms, but is predicated on the idea that it's America's Magnificent Seven that will rule the world. Whereas I was just in China two weeks ago. Sorry, boys, Sorry, boys, but China is matching you and advancing you in most areas and doing it open source and undercutting you. And there was a story yesterday about how Anthropic with its excellent version five models can't get customers now because they're turning to free open weight Chinese models. So all of this, Glenn, to my mind, points to a massive financial revaluation sometime in the next few years. A very serious one, a very serious retrenchment that could come in a long period of stock market decline or it could come in a crash, depending. But I think one of the things that Trump has done is to stoke the bubble. He's basically a bubble maker. He's a showman. He wants the whole government apparatus to raise financial wealth. That's his metric. He wants the Fed to do that. He wants Bessent to do that by these bizarre Treasury interventions in the bond market. And he wants to do that through his showmanship and his bravado. And I think a lot of the bravado that we run the world is basically the bravado to underpin a financial bubble. And as that bravado increasingly is met with derision in the rest of the world, the United States is setting itself up for a massive financial reversal. And it won't be pretty. You know, I'm a monetary economist. That's my training and my practice for 46 years. That claim is absurd because there's nothing that keeps the world stuck to the dollar. And that's increasingly true because the technology, the means of alternative payment systems, the actual implementation of alternative payment systems like the Chinese interbank payment system, the SIPS, absolutely mean that what Bessent says is preposterous. And so that's just another point of they're talking, they're talking their bubble and the bubble's going to burst.

Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil

41,414 次观看 • 15 天前

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR

YeahDave

27,279 次观看 • 10 个月前

The global oil market is changing. Events surrounding Venezuela and Iran show that the global energy market is entering a period of major restructuring. The main difference is that the previous oil market was more unified, predictable, and transparent: prices were mainly formed around common benchmarks, trade went through understandable routes, and the rules of the game were set by a relatively stable combination of exchanges, traders, and producers. The new format will be more fragmented, politicized, and multi-layered: part of the oil goes through sanctioned and 'shadow' channels, logistics and insurance are becoming instruments of pressure, maritime chokepoints are regaining strategic importance, and market influence is increasingly determined not only by production, but also by control over finances, sanctions, routes, and access to major buyers, primarily China and India. The current conflicts are accelerating changes that have already been underway for some time. One of the most important changes concerns the so-called oil benchmarks - the main reference prices. For a long time, Brent, which is primarily associated with the UK and London's financial infrastructure, has been the main benchmark for a large part of the global market. However, the American WTI, which is traded through the US, NYMEX/CME, and is based on huge American production and exports, is becoming increasingly important. This means that the American factor in global pricing has become stronger. Today, we can speak about a gradual convergence between Brent and WTI. The US is strengthening its position not only because it produces a lot, but also because its oil, exchanges, financial system, and logistics are increasingly influencing the global market. The UK retains an important role through Brent, London, as an insurance center, and its broader maritime infrastructure. Another important trend is sanctions fragmentation. Sanctions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela have not completely removed their oil from the market. But they have created a parallel, less transparent trading segment. There are more intermediaries, complex routes, discounts, and opacity. As a result, the global market formally remains unified, but in practice it is increasingly divided into separate segments. In this situation, China and India gain additional opportunities. They can buy cheaper oil and strengthen their role as key buyers. For China, this is also a chance to gradually develop its own trade and pricing mechanisms. But it is too early to say that China is already replacing the old global system. For Russia, this situation has a dual effect. In the short term, it may benefit if some Iranian or Venezuelan oil temporarily disappears from the market. Then demand for Russian oil will increase, and discounts may decrease. But in the long term, this situation is risky for Russia. Excessive dependence on a narrow circle of buyers, sanctions restrictions, and general market instability create many vulnerabilities. The main conclusion is that today, the struggle is not only for oil itself but also for the rules of the game. Whoever controls routes, exchanges, insurance, logistics, sanctions infrastructure, and pricing mechanisms gains increasing influence. And here, it is important to understand that this control is not concentrated in one place. The US and the UK have the greatest influence on pricing rules, finance, insurance, and sanctions. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait remain critical to the physical market balance. Iran and Oman are important because of the Strait of Hormuz. Egypt is important because of the Suez Canal and SUMED, and Yemen because of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore are important because of the Strait of Malacca. And China and India are increasingly influencing the direction of flows as the main buyers.

Anton Gerashchenko

25,703 次观看 • 6 个月前

💪🏻🇺🇸🙏🏻🤩 Following the successful launch of our pre-sale in the U.S., Kokoon Global Inc., based in Miami, Florida, is now fully operational. For those who have followed our journey, we are excited to showcase our real-world progress, building on our achievements in the Canary Islands. We are preparing to launch a large resort in Miami, similar to the one planned for the Canary Islands. However, due to the current political and economic instability in Europe, we are focusing solely on the resort and clinic in the Canary Islands for now, pausing plans for a larger resort there. The U.S. economy is thriving, attracting substantial investment, which is why we have shifted our focus to the U.S. market. We plan to expand our subtle clinics and prime living concepts across all 50 states. Most notably, we are thrilled about developing a seven-star medical resort in Miami. We will soon announce the chosen location. Additionally, we are establishing a central office in Miami to oversee operations across the Americas, staffed with 60 full-time employees—one for each U.S. state and 10 additional staff for other countries in the Americas. This office will serve as the hub for our medical and wellness initiatives. We are incredibly excited about the next steps and look forward to sharing more details soon. Growth and Stability: The U.S. economy is robust, with strong GDP growth driven by consumer spending, technological innovation, and infrastructure investments. In 2025, the economy is described as "boiling," with significant capital inflows due to investor confidence. Business Climate: The U.S. offers a relatively stable political and regulatory environment, fostering entrepreneurship. Business Climate: Europe faces political instability in some regions, with regulatory complexities and higher taxes. Bureaucracy can slow business expansion. Challenges: Corruption, as noted in your query, and political uncertainty deter large-scale investments. Real Estate U.S: Strong demand in cities like Miami, as you mentioned, driven by population growth, tourism, and foreign investment. Cash purchases and investor-backed projects are thriving, particularly in luxury and commercial sectors. Specific to Your Context (Kokoon’s Strategy) Your focus on Miami aligns with its status as a global hub for real estate, tourism, and healthcare. The city’s growing population and investor-friendly policies support your seven-star medical resort and subtle clinics. Cash-funded property acquisitions and construction, as you described, are feasible due to abundant liquidity and investor confidence. The U.S.’s large, homogenous market supports your 50-state expansion plan. Listing on U.S. stock exchanges could attract significant capital, given the depth of American financial markets. European Market: Your success in the Canary Islands highlights Europe’s potential for tourism-driven projects, but scaling up is challenging due to political and economic instability, as you noted. Limiting large resorts in Europe is a prudent strategy. Listing on Euronext and Oslo exchanges provides access to European capital, but liquidity and investor enthusiasm are lower than in the U.S. Corruption and regulatory delays in Europe justify your pivot to the U.S., where operational risks are lower. Conclusion The U.S. market offers a more dynamic, scalable, and investor-friendly environment for your projects, with stronger economic growth, larger financial markets, and fewer regulatory barriers. Miami’s strategic importance and the U.S.’s unified market make it ideal for your medical resort and nationwide clinics. The European market, while offering niche opportunities (e.g., Canary Islands tourism), is hindered by political instability, corruption, and fragmented regulations, justifying your cautious approach there. For rapid expansion and high-impact projects, the U.S. is currently the superior choice, aligning with your strategy to capitalize on its “boiling” economy.

Per Jacob Solli

502,299 次观看 • 1 年前