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Jason explains why HIP-3 deployers are unlikely to leave Hyperliquid. “Is it easier to build an exchange like Hyperliquid and bootstrap the liquidity, or is it easier to in-house a TradeXYZ type business in Hyperliquid? What’s easier to do if push came to shove?"

28,846 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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“Hyperliquid fails if the liquidity leaves.” Because that might be the most important sentence in the entire $hype thesis. Let's forget $319 for a second. Forget $100. Forget whether $80 is cheap. The entire game is liquidity. If traders, market makers, and capital keep choosing Hyperliquid, the machine compounds. If they leave, the story breaks. And that’s why something strange is happening. Grayscale is no longer framing Hyperliquid as just another DEX. The comparison is now Binance. OKX. Bybit. The incumbents. Because Hyperliquid isn’t just fighting for DEX volume anymore. It’s fighting for the liquidity that makes an exchange matter. And the numbers are getting harder to ignore. Hyperliquid’s total OI reached $14.3B. HIP-3 went from ~18% of total OI in March to more than 34% in August before cooling back down. Then look at what happened with USDC. Coinbase became Hyperliquid’s official USDC treasury deployer. Circle handles the technical deployment. And the new AQAv2 structure can route up to ~90% of reserve yield back toward the Hyperliquid ecosystem. Maybe read that again. The financial plumbing around the liquidity is starting to plug into the protocol itself. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid keeps expanding the surface area: perps. equities. commodities. RWAs. prediction markets. options. Multicoin’s $319 thesis assumes Hyperliquid can turn that expansion into roughly $8B of annual earnings by 2028. But here’s the part nobody gets to escape: The token supply is growing too. So Hyperliquid doesn’t win because volume goes up. It wins if earnings compound faster than supply. That’s the knife edge. and suddenly the $319 target doesn’t look like the story anymore. Liquidity is. Because if Hyperliquid becomes where capital wants to trade, settle and discover price… $80 could look absurdly cheap in hindsight. But if someone builds a better venue and the liquidity migrates? $319 becomes irrelevant. That’s the real HYPE trade. not “will HYPE hit $100?” not “can it hit $319?” can Hyperliquid become so deeply embedded in global liquidity that leaving becomes harder than staying? because if the answer is yes… we aren’t watching a DEX win. we’re watching an exchange become infrastructure.

DMY.

33,051 görüntüleme • 10 gün önce