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Jason from Blockworks on the sequence of triggers that he thinks started this bull market "August 28th, nine days ago, Treasury doubles the size of the long end liquidity support buybacks from 2 billion to 4 billion. Bitcoin touches 80 or 81k, and that's roughly where we're flirting around...

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The Wolf Of All Streets

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Kevin Warsh killed the debasement trade and gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all paying the price "The crypto market cheered when Trump picked a Bitcoin-friendly Fed chair. Then he scrapped the rate cuts and basically debased the bull case for Bitcoin, but more specifically for gold and silver" "The assets people were buying to hedge against debasement are no longer in favor. And that is gold and silver. And at least for narrative purposes we would like to think Bitcoin was part of that trade" "That is not how the market has been pricing it. If the debasement trade narrative completely disappears that could be problematic for markets in general"
1:55

Kevin Warsh killed the debasement trade and gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all paying the price "The crypto market cheered when Trump picked a Bitcoin-friendly Fed chair. Then he scrapped the rate cuts and basically debased the bull case for Bitcoin, but more specifically for gold and silver" "The assets people were buying to hedge against debasement are no longer in favor. And that is gold and silver. And at least for narrative purposes we would like to think Bitcoin was part of that trade" "That is not how the market has been pricing it. If the debasement trade narrative completely disappears that could be problematic for markets in general"

The Wolf Of All Streets

61,992 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months "The fact that Bitcoin started pushing towards 80 was not just because shorts were being liquidated. That was not a leverage squeeze at all. What we can now see is that a big part of it was Bitcoin ETFs having their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months during the rally" "Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion in the week. Ether ETFs added another $697 million, which is a very large number" "I had Alex Thorn from Galaxy on Macro Monday this morning, and he pointed out that this was effectively the most volume we've seen on Bitcoin ETFs since the all time high for Bitcoin in price and for ETFs back in October" "So that cannot be ignored. People buying ETFs is not part of a short squeeze. It is general belief that the bottom is likely in, and this is the time to re-enter the asset class"
0:59

Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months "The fact that Bitcoin started pushing towards 80 was not just because shorts were being liquidated. That was not a leverage squeeze at all. What we can now see is that a big part of it was Bitcoin ETFs having their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months during the rally" "Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion in the week. Ether ETFs added another $697 million, which is a very large number" "I had Alex Thorn from Galaxy on Macro Monday this morning, and he pointed out that this was effectively the most volume we've seen on Bitcoin ETFs since the all time high for Bitcoin in price and for ETFs back in October" "So that cannot be ignored. People buying ETFs is not part of a short squeeze. It is general belief that the bottom is likely in, and this is the time to re-enter the asset class"

The Wolf Of All Streets

25,347 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.
1:13

When the market gets boring and quiet and everyone turns bearish, I like to come back to the story of how I fucked it all up. And I fucked it up a lot of ways, because crypto is genuinely hard. People think the cycles just repeat. They don't. Every one has a different texture, a different context, and it is so easy to get it wrong. I got in back in 2013. Wrote the first ever macro piece on Bitcoin, and bought at $200, straight into a peak right before it slammed down and I felt like an idiot. But I had a thesis. And the mistake was never the thesis. It was letting the noise talk me out of it... selling, trading around it, being clever, when the only thing that ever worked was holding. That is the whole lesson, and it is the one that matters most at times like this. Crypto is one of the only real secular trends that lets you build wealth against the debasement of your salary. And as the Exponential Age accelerates, it matters more, not less. So when the market gets depressing, I do the same thing every time. I go back to the thesis, and I accumulate. Zoom out.

Raoul Pal

187,103 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the halving that drove the market. It was liquidity. QT ends in 2 weeks. I'm not saying that post-QT = QE. But I'm saying that post-QT removes the liquidity drain. And that is the big deal for crypto.
9:35

There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the halving that drove the market. It was liquidity. QT ends in 2 weeks. I'm not saying that post-QT = QE. But I'm saying that post-QT removes the liquidity drain. And that is the big deal for crypto.

Dan Gambardello

108,919 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

THIS IS NOT A FCKING BULL MARKET I called $70K and now Bitcoin has ripped all the way to $78K And suddenly everyone is sure the bear phase is over Look under the surface though: over $3.1 billion in shorts got wiped out around $1.65 billion of that was Bitcoin alone It was a massive liquidity squeeze And the timing lined up perfectly Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act again The Treasury bumped up its long-term bond buybacks risk assets exploded higher That mix was the perfect setup to blow out shorts, spark FOMO and pull new longs in right near the highs The setup I have been watching is still the same $70K FVG -> $72K -> short squeeze -> FOMO -> distribution -> selloff We are not waiting for the bull trap anymore, we might already be inside it My downside path stays the same $78K -> $67K -> $55K -> $48K to $44K Turn notifs on, my next call might be the BIGGEST of the entire cycle
0:27

THIS IS NOT A FCKING BULL MARKET I called $70K and now Bitcoin has ripped all the way to $78K And suddenly everyone is sure the bear phase is over Look under the surface though: over $3.1 billion in shorts got wiped out around $1.65 billion of that was Bitcoin alone It was a massive liquidity squeeze And the timing lined up perfectly Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act again The Treasury bumped up its long-term bond buybacks risk assets exploded higher That mix was the perfect setup to blow out shorts, spark FOMO and pull new longs in right near the highs The setup I have been watching is still the same $70K FVG -> $72K -> short squeeze -> FOMO -> distribution -> selloff We are not waiting for the bull trap anymore, we might already be inside it My downside path stays the same $78K -> $67K -> $55K -> $48K to $44K Turn notifs on, my next call might be the BIGGEST of the entire cycle

Atlas

603,818 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

This is the former President of PayPal talking about using #Bitcoin to make the $7.5 Trillion DAILY Foreign Exchange Market a much more efficient & profitable place. He is talking about building what Strike is building and compared the current monetary rails to a fax machine. I also completely agree with him that #Bitcoin will not be the currency people use to buy goods and services, however, it is a great settlement layer where you can have USD effectively on #Bitcoin rails and do immediate settlements. This is the best explanation of a corporate application of #Bitcoin being used as an invisible service layer that I've heard. If you think the corporates "don't get it" and only Twitter Anon's can "get it" - you're a moron. These people are smart and can catch up quickly with manpower. To put it into perspective, if 25% of the Daily Foreign Exchange market was on #Bitcoin rails it means $1.875 Trillion of daily consistent demand for #Bitcoin. That would equate to a $225 Trillion #Bitcoin Market Cap - assuming BofA's Bull Market Multiple is right. This means - just 25% of this market alone coming onto the #Bitcoin Rails would add $10.5m onto the price of #Bitcoin. Thanks for finding the video!
3:18

This is the former President of PayPal talking about using #Bitcoin to make the $7.5 Trillion DAILY Foreign Exchange Market a much more efficient & profitable place. He is talking about building what Strike is building and compared the current monetary rails to a fax machine. I also completely agree with him that #Bitcoin will not be the currency people use to buy goods and services, however, it is a great settlement layer where you can have USD effectively on #Bitcoin rails and do immediate settlements. This is the best explanation of a corporate application of #Bitcoin being used as an invisible service layer that I've heard. If you think the corporates "don't get it" and only Twitter Anon's can "get it" - you're a moron. These people are smart and can catch up quickly with manpower. To put it into perspective, if 25% of the Daily Foreign Exchange market was on #Bitcoin rails it means $1.875 Trillion of daily consistent demand for #Bitcoin. That would equate to a $225 Trillion #Bitcoin Market Cap - assuming BofA's Bull Market Multiple is right. This means - just 25% of this market alone coming onto the #Bitcoin Rails would add $10.5m onto the price of #Bitcoin. Thanks for finding the video!

BRITISH HODL ❤️‍🔥🐂❤️‍🔥

229,736 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

"People made a fundamental miscalculation about the market DeFi is going after. If you think DeFi is servicing the crypto market that is a $2 trillion market. But DeFi is going to service crypto equities and bonds. That is a $300 trillion market. A 150x error" Matt Hougan on why DeFi is being rerated and why the phase shift happening in these assets is just getting started "You are now lending tokenized stocks on Morpho. That was not something we were talking about a year ago. It was a fantasy" "Rerate the market up 150x and rerate value capture from zero to something. That is why you are getting a phase shift in these assets" "People are realizing they need to adjust to the crypto takes the entire capital market phase. In which case DeFi is probably a lot bigger than it looks today"
1:33

"People made a fundamental miscalculation about the market DeFi is going after. If you think DeFi is servicing the crypto market that is a $2 trillion market. But DeFi is going to service crypto equities and bonds. That is a $300 trillion market. A 150x error" Matt Hougan on why DeFi is being rerated and why the phase shift happening in these assets is just getting started "You are now lending tokenized stocks on Morpho. That was not something we were talking about a year ago. It was a fantasy" "Rerate the market up 150x and rerate value capture from zero to something. That is why you are getting a phase shift in these assets" "People are realizing they need to adjust to the crypto takes the entire capital market phase. In which case DeFi is probably a lot bigger than it looks today"

The Wolf Of All Streets

36,903 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

5 red monthly candles on ETH and altcoins falling nonstop. But after years, PMI regional data is pointing toward expansion. The business cycle that has correlated with every crypto bull and bear is shifting. The last two times crypto looked like this on the macro, it was the bottom. I could be wrong and if I am I'll say it. But the data right now doesn't say bear market starting. It says bear market ending. ISM prints tomorrow morning... Intro 00:00 ISM PMI about to turn 00:50 Bitcoin bear vs. bull 2:50 Ethereum 7:30 Altcoins 13:25
18:41

5 red monthly candles on ETH and altcoins falling nonstop. But after years, PMI regional data is pointing toward expansion. The business cycle that has correlated with every crypto bull and bear is shifting. The last two times crypto looked like this on the macro, it was the bottom. I could be wrong and if I am I'll say it. But the data right now doesn't say bear market starting. It says bear market ending. ISM prints tomorrow morning... Intro 00:00 ISM PMI about to turn 00:50 Bitcoin bear vs. bull 2:50 Ethereum 7:30 Altcoins 13:25

Dan Gambardello

65,274 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

#WATCH | Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu | Bharatanatyam dancer and daughter of Sadhguru, Radhe Jaggi says, "...This year, we are excited to put up a story about Ravana, which is a story that a lot of people don't know about. The people think of him as a villain in Ramayana, which he is. But, in India, we don't look at characters as completely bad or completely good. Ravana is the greatest example of that because as much as he was greedy, full of lust and possessive, he was also somebody who is considered the greatest devotee, a scholar...When we decided on the theme, I didn't really know about it, but this is a story that I thought would be nice to present..."
4:22

#WATCH | Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu | Bharatanatyam dancer and daughter of Sadhguru, Radhe Jaggi says, "...This year, we are excited to put up a story about Ravana, which is a story that a lot of people don't know about. The people think of him as a villain in Ramayana, which he is. But, in India, we don't look at characters as completely bad or completely good. Ravana is the greatest example of that because as much as he was greedy, full of lust and possessive, he was also somebody who is considered the greatest devotee, a scholar...When we decided on the theme, I didn't really know about it, but this is a story that I thought would be nice to present..."

ANI

394,043 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.
1:12

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.

Acyn

74,258 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

"It's just complete balance sheet mismanagement" Jeff Dorman on why Strategy is being forced to sell Bitcoin "The market was worried they weren't gonna be able to satisfy the dividend. So they raised about $2 billion and said now you don't have to worry for a year and a half because we have this $2 billion sitting on the balance sheet solely to pay dividends. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief" "Then a month later he takes 1.4 billion of that cash cushion and buys back some of his convertible debt at 92 cents on the dollar, completely the opposite of what he said the cash was for. He retired 2029 maturity debt, which doesn't come due for three more years" "Now that one and a half year cash cushion suddenly fell to four months. He comes out on Monday and says we're actually gonna sell some Bitcoin. It's teasing the market that that's the only choice he has now. That's why Bitcoin's imploding, that's why the stock is imploding"
1:51

"It's just complete balance sheet mismanagement" Jeff Dorman on why Strategy is being forced to sell Bitcoin "The market was worried they weren't gonna be able to satisfy the dividend. So they raised about $2 billion and said now you don't have to worry for a year and a half because we have this $2 billion sitting on the balance sheet solely to pay dividends. Everyone breathes a sigh of relief" "Then a month later he takes 1.4 billion of that cash cushion and buys back some of his convertible debt at 92 cents on the dollar, completely the opposite of what he said the cash was for. He retired 2029 maturity debt, which doesn't come due for three more years" "Now that one and a half year cash cushion suddenly fell to four months. He comes out on Monday and says we're actually gonna sell some Bitcoin. It's teasing the market that that's the only choice he has now. That's why Bitcoin's imploding, that's why the stock is imploding"

Laura Shin

228,349 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

JUST IN: DEMOCRAT SENATOR JEFF MERKLEY JUST ANNOUNCED HE WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO CLARITY ACT "THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THAT SWAP IS CRYPTO. HE MADE $1 BILLION SELLING HIS MEMECOINS AND STABLECOINS" "THERE IS A LOT WRONG WITH THE CLARITY ACT" "THE FACT THAT IT LACKS CORRUPTION MEASURES... THIS IS PASSING CASH UNDER THE TABLE" "TRUMP IS CREATING A SWAMP OF CORRUPTION THAT IS A MILE DEEP AND A MILE WIDE" "THIS IS CORRUPTION PURE AND SIMPLE"
2:30

JUST IN: DEMOCRAT SENATOR JEFF MERKLEY JUST ANNOUNCED HE WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO CLARITY ACT "THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THAT SWAP IS CRYPTO. HE MADE $1 BILLION SELLING HIS MEMECOINS AND STABLECOINS" "THERE IS A LOT WRONG WITH THE CLARITY ACT" "THE FACT THAT IT LACKS CORRUPTION MEASURES... THIS IS PASSING CASH UNDER THE TABLE" "TRUMP IS CREATING A SWAMP OF CORRUPTION THAT IS A MILE DEEP AND A MILE WIDE" "THIS IS CORRUPTION PURE AND SIMPLE"

The Bitcoin Historian

113,904 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”
2:11

.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”

Arjun Khemani

23,056 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.
57:16

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.

Bitcoin Magazine

19,345 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

"They hear about Coldcard and go, Bitcoin's been hacked" James Butterfill on the impression the Coldcard hack has left on investors "This is the first question that comes up among investors. They hear about Coldcard and go, okay, well that's it, Bitcoin's been hacked. Clearly it hasn't, but that is the inference, and then they try to dismiss the whole asset completely" "I think that's an incredibly misguided view" "Partly because the Coldcard hack, although it's harsh for the people involved, was what, two and a half to three thousand Bitcoin in total, not a huge amount of Bitcoin that was vulnerable"
0:30

"They hear about Coldcard and go, Bitcoin's been hacked" James Butterfill on the impression the Coldcard hack has left on investors "This is the first question that comes up among investors. They hear about Coldcard and go, okay, well that's it, Bitcoin's been hacked. Clearly it hasn't, but that is the inference, and then they try to dismiss the whole asset completely" "I think that's an incredibly misguided view" "Partly because the Coldcard hack, although it's harsh for the people involved, was what, two and a half to three thousand Bitcoin in total, not a huge amount of Bitcoin that was vulnerable"

The Wolf Of All Streets

30,695 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "There was a story ten days ago that said this is the worst April for the stock market since the Great Depression. Ten days later, the Nasdaq is now up on the month of April, and I haven't seen a story that says 'stock market has biggest bounce back ever.'"
0:26

.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "There was a story ten days ago that said this is the worst April for the stock market since the Great Depression. Ten days later, the Nasdaq is now up on the month of April, and I haven't seen a story that says 'stock market has biggest bounce back ever.'"

Rapid Response 47

1,277,727 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Bitcoin exploded from $64K to $79K. Now everyone thinks the bull market is back. But almost nobody understands what actually triggered the move. It started in U.S. Treasuries. The Treasury DOUBLED the maximum size of its long-term bond buybacks: $2B → at least $4B per operation. Long-term yields immediately dropped. Then Bitcoin moved: $65,400 → $69,500 More than $4,000 almost instantly. Then Trump put crypto back in the spotlight. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was back in the conversation. Bitcoin kept moving: $69,500 → $79,000 And by then the short squeeze was doing the rest. Leveraged shorts were getting destroyed. Forced buying pushed BTC even higher. $4 BILLION has now been liquidated in just 48 hours. So the chain reaction was simple: TREASURY EXPANDS BUYBACKS ↓ YIELDS FALL ↓ TRUMP REVIVES CRYPTO HOPIUM ↓ BITCOIN PUMPS ↓ SHORTS GET LIQUIDATED ↓ FORCED BUYING SENDS BTC TO $79K But here’s what everyone is missing: This is NOT QE. The Fed did NOT turn the money printer back on. And while everyone is celebrating the pump, the Fed is moving in the opposite direction. The latest FOMC minutes showed a September RATE HIKE is still on the table. That is not the macro setup I expect at the beginning of a clean Bitcoin bull run. And we’ve seen this exact trap before. August 2022: Bitcoin suddenly rallied. Everyone thought the bear market was over. Then the bull trap failed and BTC collapsed again. Same time of year. Same excitement. Same belief that the bottom was already in. And macro is even worse now. War risk is still unresolved. Oil remains elevated. The energy shock is not gone. Now there is one level that matters more than anything: $83K-$85K. Reaching it means nothing. HOLDING it does. If Bitcoin reaches $83K-$85K and gets rejected, the bull trap remains intact. If it breaks above and actually holds, then the structure changes. Until that happens: MY PLAN HASN’T CHANGED. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:29

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Bitcoin exploded from $64K to $79K. Now everyone thinks the bull market is back. But almost nobody understands what actually triggered the move. It started in U.S. Treasuries. The Treasury DOUBLED the maximum size of its long-term bond buybacks: $2B → at least $4B per operation. Long-term yields immediately dropped. Then Bitcoin moved: $65,400 → $69,500 More than $4,000 almost instantly. Then Trump put crypto back in the spotlight. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was back in the conversation. Bitcoin kept moving: $69,500 → $79,000 And by then the short squeeze was doing the rest. Leveraged shorts were getting destroyed. Forced buying pushed BTC even higher. $4 BILLION has now been liquidated in just 48 hours. So the chain reaction was simple: TREASURY EXPANDS BUYBACKS ↓ YIELDS FALL ↓ TRUMP REVIVES CRYPTO HOPIUM ↓ BITCOIN PUMPS ↓ SHORTS GET LIQUIDATED ↓ FORCED BUYING SENDS BTC TO $79K But here’s what everyone is missing: This is NOT QE. The Fed did NOT turn the money printer back on. And while everyone is celebrating the pump, the Fed is moving in the opposite direction. The latest FOMC minutes showed a September RATE HIKE is still on the table. That is not the macro setup I expect at the beginning of a clean Bitcoin bull run. And we’ve seen this exact trap before. August 2022: Bitcoin suddenly rallied. Everyone thought the bear market was over. Then the bull trap failed and BTC collapsed again. Same time of year. Same excitement. Same belief that the bottom was already in. And macro is even worse now. War risk is still unresolved. Oil remains elevated. The energy shock is not gone. Now there is one level that matters more than anything: $83K-$85K. Reaching it means nothing. HOLDING it does. If Bitcoin reaches $83K-$85K and gets rejected, the bull trap remains intact. If it breaks above and actually holds, then the structure changes. Until that happens: MY PLAN HASN’T CHANGED. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

482,392 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

The first real crypto bull market in 6 years is approaching! The 2025 Bitcoin ATH looked like a bull market, but it wasn't THE bull market. And you should be glad it wasn't. It was ETF flows and an election trade. Real money, but a flows event...not an economic expansion. Price Bitcoin in gold instead of dollars and it hardly even made a new high. The expansion bull market hasn't happened yet, but finally looks like it's going to. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold 1:10 Business cycle 3:30 Altcoin bull expansion 4:30
7:44

The first real crypto bull market in 6 years is approaching! The 2025 Bitcoin ATH looked like a bull market, but it wasn't THE bull market. And you should be glad it wasn't. It was ETF flows and an election trade. Real money, but a flows event...not an economic expansion. Price Bitcoin in gold instead of dollars and it hardly even made a new high. The expansion bull market hasn't happened yet, but finally looks like it's going to. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold 1:10 Business cycle 3:30 Altcoin bull expansion 4:30

Dan Gambardello

31,475 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake David Sacks on E223: "We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing." "No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington." "And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it." "But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country." "Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation." "He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this." "That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake." "I think most people today would say he was right about this."
1:05

David Sacks: The Decades-Long Bipartisan Consensus on Free Trade was a Mistake David Sacks on E223: "We've had a bipartisan consensus in Washington for decades that unfettered free trade is a good thing." "No matter how big our trade deficits got, no matter how rich and powerful China got, no matter how unfair the trade practices got, no matter how many millions of our jobs in factories got exported overseas, this has been the bipartisan consensus in Washington." "And Larry, you're right that it started before the Clinton administration, and the George W. Bush administration definitely accelerated it." "But there has absolutely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington that this sort of unfettered free trade policy was good for the country." "Now, how do you change that? You can nitpick this and you can make all the process objections you want, but Donald Trump has changed the conversation." "He was one of the few people, one the few public figures in America who was right about this." "That throwing open our markets to these foreign products without thinking about the consequences was a mistake." "I think most people today would say he was right about this."

The All-In Podcast

126,225 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

NEW: Scott Bessent just went on ABC and called out Martha Raddatz to her face — accusing the media of failing to correct a fake narrative about Trump’s stock market. And he didn’t let her off the hook. Secretary Bessent said: “When I look at the sum of the things that are being published——there was a story ten days ago that said this is the worst April for the stock market since the Great Depression,” “Ten days later the Nasdaq is now up on the month of April, and I haven't seen a story that says, 'Oh, Stock Market Has Biggest Bounce Back Ever.'” Raddatz jumped in to try to spin it: “Well it certainly has gone back and forth. Let’s—” But Bessent wasn’t having it. “I think a lot of this is media-driven,” he fired back, forcing the uncomfortable truth into the conversation. For once, they couldn’t bury it.
0:26

NEW: Scott Bessent just went on ABC and called out Martha Raddatz to her face — accusing the media of failing to correct a fake narrative about Trump’s stock market. And he didn’t let her off the hook. Secretary Bessent said: “When I look at the sum of the things that are being published——there was a story ten days ago that said this is the worst April for the stock market since the Great Depression,” “Ten days later the Nasdaq is now up on the month of April, and I haven't seen a story that says, 'Oh, Stock Market Has Biggest Bounce Back Ever.'” Raddatz jumped in to try to spin it: “Well it certainly has gone back and forth. Let’s—” But Bessent wasn’t having it. “I think a lot of this is media-driven,” he fired back, forcing the uncomfortable truth into the conversation. For once, they couldn’t bury it.

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

873,715 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr