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Jess Phillips explains how standards investigations into MPs work after new claims about Nigel Farage’s finances. This episode was recorded on 6th July 2026 before Nigel Farage resigned as an MP. You can listen now by joining Sky News Insider. ✨ Sky News Insider requires a paid subscription. UK...

59,044 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Fiona Bruce, "Nigel Farage is facing questions about Reform UK's claim that he used money earned from appearing on a TV show to buy a £1.4m home" "Last week the party told the BBC the Reform UK leader bought the house without a mortgage by using his fee from I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here" "But his company accounts appear to suggest that his situation is more complex" Joe Pike, "Nigel Farage bought this sprawling Surrey property in 2024 in cash as you say, there was no mortgage" "Last week we were told by Reform UK he used the appearance fee on I'm A Celebrity to fund that house purchase" "Mr Farage previously said the money from that TV appearance, said to be over £1m was put into his private company" "Yet we and others have been looking into those company accounts today and they appear to suggest the income remained in the account after that house purchase" "Now Reform UK have denied that Mr Farage used any of the unconditional £5m gift that he received from the crypto billionaire Chrstopher Harborne who has been living in Thailand for over 20 years, when buying that property 36 days after he had received the gift" "They also point out that anti money laundering check were put through as the property purchase took place in March before the gift happened in April, with the purchase in May" "Opposition parties have criticised Mr Farage to answer more questions" "It's another example of Reform UK and Mr Farage becoming more prominent, doing better in polls and elections, therefore facing far more scrutiny over his finances and his background"

Farrukh

95,162 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Emma Barnett, "More people in every constituency in England, Scotland and Wales back a closer relationship with the EU, rather than more transatlantic trade with the US" Nigel Farage, "Depends how you ask the question" Emma Barnett, "Well, you're quite a fan of opinion polls if they put Reform ahead of Conservatives and Labour" Nigel Farage laughs and smirks Emma Barnett, "I'm trying to understand from you how you will accept there are a lot of people in this country who want closer ties with the European Union, and it doesn't seem you can outline how you will accept that ideologically" Nigel Farage, "We voted for Brexit, we voted to leave, that was very very clear. We can be friendly, we can be cooperative" Emma Barnett, "What does that mean?" Nigel Farage, "The deal negotiated by the Boris Johnson Conservative government was not a very good one, we can improve on that.. But the most important part is that we don't tie ourselves to.." Emma Barnett, "You keep saying what we shouldn't do, but what is your vision Nigel Farage specifically?" Nigel Farage, "We are a global trading nation, the European Union is diminishing every single year. And I keep hearing this stuff of what an important trading market it is" "Every single year that goes by, it becomes smaller and smaller" Emma Barnett, "What does being friendly mean? We're not mate sin a pub. What does being friendly mean, can you commit to something?" Nigel Farage, "We can improve the deal" Emma Barnett, "How?" Nigel Farage, "By saying to them, we can make this easier for both of us, we can go back through, and we're up for a renegotiation anyway" "My fear is that we tie ourselves to EU law, that we start to accept Single Market regulations" Emma Barnett, "You're still not saying what.. You keep outlining your fears and what you don't like, but you're now an MP, you're the leader of a party, don't you need to say what we can do? What can that fisherman hear from you?" Nigel Farage, "I'll tell you what we can do, we can do a free trade deal with the USA, we can look across the rest of the world, and we can also recognise that if we want to turn the economy around, the biggest problem isn't our overseas trade, it's the desperate lack of productivity in the UK" "Yes of course the EU is an important market, no one's denying that for a moment. But with every year that goes by it becomes less important, let's think bigger" Your reminder that staying outside the EU Single Market costs the UK over £100 billion every year in trade, trade that would benefit the UK and the EU Or in easier to relate to terms, each person in the UK is currently about £2,000 worse off outside the EU, than we would be if we were in the EU And it's a sad day for British politics, and our economy, when Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage are calling for the same thing, closer ties to the EU, but not being in the EU Single Market; which is the one thing that would supercharge growth for the UK economy

Farrukh

103,979 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr