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John: I don't think you should just throw "decel" at someone who's identifying a negative externality of a new technology. That's not necessarily decelerationist.

TBPN

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220,244 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Jordi: It seems pretty obvious that the models just getting smarter is not by default going to make adoption accelerate massively again. If you're a business that's not doing code-gen, not generating a bunch of assets, etc. - and somebody says, "For $20 a month, you get someone that's PhD level in math, but extremely low agency." A laundromat would be like, "Actually, I don't need somebody who's PhD level at math. Sir this is a laundromat."

Jordi: It seems pretty obvious that the models just getting smarter is not by default going to make adoption accelerate massively again. If you're a business that's not doing code-gen, not generating a bunch of assets, etc. - and somebody says, "For $20 a month, you get someone that's PhD level in math, but extremely low agency." A laundromat would be like, "Actually, I don't need somebody who's PhD level at math. Sir this is a laundromat."

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Jordi believes that in LA, you can clock when someone isn't a real surfer based on how they get their surfboard to the beach. John: "Throw it on top of your car." Jordi: "Three fingers." John: "Why? You don't put a surfboard on the top of your car?" Jordi: "Real ones don't."

Jordi believes that in LA, you can clock when someone isn't a real surfer based on how they get their surfboard to the beach. John: "Throw it on top of your car." Jordi: "Three fingers." John: "Why? You don't put a surfboard on the top of your car?" Jordi: "Real ones don't."

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John and Jordi on the issues with delivery app tipping: "A lot of the apps don't prompt for the tip at the right time." "If you ask for the tip before the service is rendered, it's hard to use the tip as a feedback mechanism." "When I order delivery from a grocery store...I don't even know if they see [the tip]... "In theory, I tip because I want you to not throw the drinks around so they explode." "If you just build it into the cost of the food, people feel better about it."

John and Jordi on the issues with delivery app tipping: "A lot of the apps don't prompt for the tip at the right time." "If you ask for the tip before the service is rendered, it's hard to use the tip as a feedback mechanism." "When I order delivery from a grocery store...I don't even know if they see [the tip]... "In theory, I tip because I want you to not throw the drinks around so they explode." "If you just build it into the cost of the food, people feel better about it."

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.Marcus Milione wants Minted New York to become a massive brand, but does not think the path there is just dumping money into paid ads. "I want the brand to be as big as possible. When you're trying to build something like that, I don't think going slow and building a really strong foundation is a bad thing." "I think that there's a playbook where you just turn on the Meta ads faucet and just throw money at it. But I mean, we do very little advertising at all. 99.5% of our posts are organic." "That feels like a really nice, strong foundation where, if we want to turn on the paid advertising, it just makes our life a little bit because we're building a brand that people know. You're not just getting fed ads all the time, then ending up buying it and having no affiliation with the brand."

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"A generation of management teaching taught us CEOs should trust their people and get out of the way. But I don't think 'trust' and 'getting out of the way' are the same thing." Brian Chesky on how Founder Mode will become even more important with agentic AI: "Great leadership is presence, not absence." "Leadership is presence. You should actually be partnering with people. You should be on the field with them. If you're a calvalry general, you should be on a horse. You should be on the battlefield. You're not overseas just writing blueprints. You gotta be on the field with them, you gotta be leading by example." "Leadership is from the front, not the back." "I think AI is going to create the equivalent of an AI founder mode. Now you gotta be even more hands-on. I don't think in the era of AI, there should be any pure people managers. Because you're so close to the details and data. Everyone has the opportunity to be hands-on, and it's hard to imagine only managing people and not agents."

"A generation of management teaching taught us CEOs should trust their people and get out of the way. But I don't think 'trust' and 'getting out of the way' are the same thing." Brian Chesky on how Founder Mode will become even more important with agentic AI: "Great leadership is presence, not absence." "Leadership is presence. You should actually be partnering with people. You should be on the field with them. If you're a calvalry general, you should be on a horse. You should be on the battlefield. You're not overseas just writing blueprints. You gotta be on the field with them, you gotta be leading by example." "Leadership is from the front, not the back." "I think AI is going to create the equivalent of an AI founder mode. Now you gotta be even more hands-on. I don't think in the era of AI, there should be any pure people managers. Because you're so close to the details and data. Everyone has the opportunity to be hands-on, and it's hard to imagine only managing people and not agents."

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Q: Do you agree with Trump's position that Americans' financial situations should not be a consideration? Vance: Well, I don't... think the President said that. I think that's a misrepresentation of what the President said

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Jordi: Even if you believe in the permanent underclass meme, trying to become rich in two months is going to make you do things that are not super productive, and not super enduring. "I think young people just need to get that concept out of their heads. You don't need to be thinking on 10-, 20-, 30-year time horizons, like you would with a legacy career..." "[But you should] think in 3- and 5-year time horizons. And not have this insane scarcity mindset. You're just not going to do very good work."

Jordi: Even if you believe in the permanent underclass meme, trying to become rich in two months is going to make you do things that are not super productive, and not super enduring. "I think young people just need to get that concept out of their heads. You don't need to be thinking on 10-, 20-, 30-year time horizons, like you would with a legacy career..." "[But you should] think in 3- and 5-year time horizons. And not have this insane scarcity mindset. You're just not going to do very good work."

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.Darian Shirazi worries the promise of landing a tech job after college is at risk. "College, especially liberal arts, was formed for the process of being creative, thinking, philosophy, and writing. We've told people that they can go to college and get a good job at a tech company. I think that's in jeopardy currently." "Today, the mid-level engineers are managing coding agents in English. They're not even coding. At the senior level, the engineers are probably okay because we do need more code reviews and evaluations. But for entry-level positions, we've told a whole generation, including my generation, that they should go to college when I don't think that's necessary." "My hope is that we focus more on real trades like welding, plumbing, ceramics, and pottery. These are going to be more respected lines of work in the future as knowledge work gets completely replaced by AI." "I generally do worry about this because I don't know if colleges should be teaching computer science to everybody." "That being said, I think everyone should take a course to understand how AI and LLMs actually work. I think everyone should do their best to read the Transformer paper because it's kind of the Magna Carta of this generation."

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.John Doyle: "You cannot exist as a Democrat and express meaningful opposition to... gay race communism." Me: "You don't think that's a bit of a strawman of what the Democratic Party believes?" John Doyle: "No, not at all, actually." Chris Mowrey: "I'm over here laughing... that's ridiculous!" Watch more from the latest "Brad vs The World":

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"I worry the world is just becoming a lot more correlated. That's my big worry. That if things ever did go down the drain, there's nowhere to hide." - tylercowen on the rush into precious metals "We've realized Bitcoin is not a hedge. Where else do you go?" "The rest of the world seems a bit crazy, Europe is still slow growth. [So] you pick the precious metals. They're like the new meme stocks. That's fine. I don't think it has major significance, but look, it's not good news." "People will keep on looking [for a store of value]. They look at different things. But if you want something that does not positively covary with Treasuries, good luck. Send me an email when you find it. It turned out Bitcoin is super positively covarying with a lot of other US assets, which again is good news for the US. It may not be good news for those seeking to hedge."

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Eos Systems' Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross thinks ASI is inevitable. Here are the bets he’s making for the singularity: "I have a startup that's working on solving interspecies communication, starting with dogs... I have startups that are literally trying to grow new islands and new coastlines with AI." "I'm trying to make bets assuming that AI capabilities keep increasing to the point where they're ontologically shocking, and trying not to duplicate the efforts of frontier labs." "I think that's perhaps something I don't see enough of in the venture community. So many new startups being formed now just aren't being ambitious enough."

Eos Systems' Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross thinks ASI is inevitable. Here are the bets he’s making for the singularity: "I have a startup that's working on solving interspecies communication, starting with dogs... I have startups that are literally trying to grow new islands and new coastlines with AI." "I'm trying to make bets assuming that AI capabilities keep increasing to the point where they're ontologically shocking, and trying not to duplicate the efforts of frontier labs." "I think that's perhaps something I don't see enough of in the venture community. So many new startups being formed now just aren't being ambitious enough."

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