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Jon Eric-Sullivan on The Joe Rose Show mentioned 5th rd draft pick LB Kyle Louis would be used as a Big Nickel, similar to GB’s Javon Bullard In 2025, Louis played 256 coverage snaps as a hybrid LB/S in Pitts “Big Nickel” package Louis would allow Jeff Hafley to... show more

Hussam Patel

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While many around the league don’t expect any linebackers to be drafted tonight, if there is one, it certainly could be #TexasAM’s Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper is the most complete LB in the 2024 draft class. He’s shown to be: 1️⃣an elite athlete 2️⃣a consistent and impactful run defender 3️⃣a capable and efficient blitzer, and 4️⃣able to use his size and bend to disrupt in pass protection As a run defender, he finished with an 87.6 PFF grade, highest among any expected draft linebackers in this year’s draft class. That includes 15 TFLs or no gain plays. As you can see (🎥), his downhill force plus balance and control allows him to consistently win in the run game As a pass rusher, he had 7 sacks on the year, 4 of which came from playing on the line of scrimmage. When lined up on the line of scrimmage, he generated a pressure on over 30% of his pass rush snaps. Elite ‼️ And in coverage, he finished with a top-10 coverage grade int eh country last season (per PFF College) among LBs lined up in the box. He’s able to use his length and bend, along with developed vision and timing to disrupt plays from the box. Couple all of that with a 4.51 forty time and would-be impressive athletic testing numbers if he was 100% for the draft process (why he wasn’t able to officially go every day in practice at This Account Has Moved), and it’s hard to ignore his NFL starting potential. There’s a real chance he goes in late round one, but if he’s there on Day 2, he may not only be one of, if not the, first linebacker drafted, but may be one of the first players taken on Day 2 of the draft. #ShrineBowlWhosNext

While many around the league don’t expect any linebackers to be drafted tonight, if there is one, it certainly could be #TexasAM’s Edgerrin Cooper. Cooper is the most complete LB in the 2024 draft class. He’s shown to be: 1️⃣an elite athlete 2️⃣a consistent and impactful run defender 3️⃣a capable and efficient blitzer, and 4️⃣able to use his size and bend to disrupt in pass protection As a run defender, he finished with an 87.6 PFF grade, highest among any expected draft linebackers in this year’s draft class. That includes 15 TFLs or no gain plays. As you can see (🎥), his downhill force plus balance and control allows him to consistently win in the run game As a pass rusher, he had 7 sacks on the year, 4 of which came from playing on the line of scrimmage. When lined up on the line of scrimmage, he generated a pressure on over 30% of his pass rush snaps. Elite ‼️ And in coverage, he finished with a top-10 coverage grade int eh country last season (per PFF College) among LBs lined up in the box. He’s able to use his length and bend, along with developed vision and timing to disrupt plays from the box. Couple all of that with a 4.51 forty time and would-be impressive athletic testing numbers if he was 100% for the draft process (why he wasn’t able to officially go every day in practice at This Account Has Moved), and it’s hard to ignore his NFL starting potential. There’s a real chance he goes in late round one, but if he’s there on Day 2, he may not only be one of, if not the, first linebacker drafted, but may be one of the first players taken on Day 2 of the draft. #ShrineBowlWhosNext

Eric Galko

100,411 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

#OleMiss’s Chris Paul (POOH) Chris Paul is undoubtably one of the best, and you can make the case he’s the most complete, linebacker in the 2025 #NFLDraft class. With outstanding movement ability, range in coverage, explosiveness upfield and laterally, and finishing ability as a tackler, he’s a rare three-tool, three down starting NFL linebacker. He finished the 2024 season with a 78+ PFF College grade in Run Defense, Coverage AND Pass Rush categories. He was the ONLY Power 4 LB to reach those numbers this year. And he’s just one of four in the last 5 years to do so (Edgerrin Cooper, Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean the others). Rare company for Paul, who rose during East-West Shrine Bowl week and should continue to rise throughout the draft process, as he has the elite football IQ to match the talent on the field. #ShrineBowlWhosNext

#OleMiss’s Chris Paul (POOH) Chris Paul is undoubtably one of the best, and you can make the case he’s the most complete, linebacker in the 2025 #NFLDraft class. With outstanding movement ability, range in coverage, explosiveness upfield and laterally, and finishing ability as a tackler, he’s a rare three-tool, three down starting NFL linebacker. He finished the 2024 season with a 78+ PFF College grade in Run Defense, Coverage AND Pass Rush categories. He was the ONLY Power 4 LB to reach those numbers this year. And he’s just one of four in the last 5 years to do so (Edgerrin Cooper, Devin Lloyd and Nakobe Dean the others). Rare company for Paul, who rose during East-West Shrine Bowl week and should continue to rise throughout the draft process, as he has the elite football IQ to match the talent on the field. #ShrineBowlWhosNext

Eric Galko

22,230 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

MR. IG🐻Prescription Play #2🏀 Ja Morant o11.5 Reb+Ast (+100) #GrindCity vs #LakeShow Film. Data. Narratives. What a great play. Show love if you want another play❤️ Lets start with the data because this man is averaging 16.8 Potential Assists across his last 9 games with 25+ minutes. We have also hammered the idea of the Lakers being a horrendous transition defense this season, and we know Ja Morant is at his most fun when he gets out in transition. Expect some easy assists on those plays here. Now as far as the Lakers, they don't hide their strategy of "you are either shooting or passing but you are not driving." While that last matchup was the one that started the drama with his comments about the coaches chewing him out mid-game, it did look like he was figuring out how to read it in the 2nd half. The Grizzlies would put Ja Morant on the wing in an ISO position, with everyone cleared out to the other side. The Lakers would have the big show EARLY help on the near side block. Ja Morant would then read the help of the big man and the weakside corner If the big and corner were helping early, he would drive and find the corner. If the big was helping and the corner wasn't, he would find the big on the opposite block. If the big AND the corner were waiting for him to drive before showing help, he would force the switch onto a lesser defender and put the Lakers into a position where they had to show help. And as far as the rebounding, Ja Morant's defensive role is simple: When there is a corner camper, matchup with the corner camper. With no Reaves, and not matching up on Luka/Lebron, we know this will be the case and should keep him in uncontested weakside rebounding position on any deep shot attempts. This is why he has had 11+ Rebound Chances in 3/4 against the Lakers.

MR. IG🐻Prescription Play #2🏀 Ja Morant o11.5 Reb+Ast (+100) #GrindCity vs #LakeShow Film. Data. Narratives. What a great play. Show love if you want another play❤️ Lets start with the data because this man is averaging 16.8 Potential Assists across his last 9 games with 25+ minutes. We have also hammered the idea of the Lakers being a horrendous transition defense this season, and we know Ja Morant is at his most fun when he gets out in transition. Expect some easy assists on those plays here. Now as far as the Lakers, they don't hide their strategy of "you are either shooting or passing but you are not driving." While that last matchup was the one that started the drama with his comments about the coaches chewing him out mid-game, it did look like he was figuring out how to read it in the 2nd half. The Grizzlies would put Ja Morant on the wing in an ISO position, with everyone cleared out to the other side. The Lakers would have the big show EARLY help on the near side block. Ja Morant would then read the help of the big man and the weakside corner If the big and corner were helping early, he would drive and find the corner. If the big was helping and the corner wasn't, he would find the big on the opposite block. If the big AND the corner were waiting for him to drive before showing help, he would force the switch onto a lesser defender and put the Lakers into a position where they had to show help. And as far as the rebounding, Ja Morant's defensive role is simple: When there is a corner camper, matchup with the corner camper. With no Reaves, and not matching up on Luka/Lebron, we know this will be the case and should keep him in uncontested weakside rebounding position on any deep shot attempts. This is why he has had 11+ Rebound Chances in 3/4 against the Lakers.

Dr. Profit🩺

49,152 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Caedan Wallace (#70 in the video clips) – This looks like a good move from JES. Here’s my thoughts below and I’d be happy to answer any questions. I’m not going to do a video on Wallace since we’re talking about someone acquired for minimal compensation and was going to be waived pretty early in the offseason process. But there’s some reasons to be optimistic. Wallace was a 3rd round pick in 2024, which was before Vrabel arrived in NE – we see this often where players from a previous regime just aren’t valued by the new staff. I’ve watched all of Wallace’s 2024 snaps, plus his preseason 2025 snaps. He was used all over the place by NE including 6th OL, Tackle, and Guard. So he comes in as a young player and some NFL experience on both sides of the formation. My conclusion is that Wallace should be a near lock to be on the Dolphins 53 man roster. I see him instantly as no worse than OL 8 on this roster behind the starting 5, Salyer and maybe Andrew Meyer (who has C versatility). Wallace would get the leg up on Campbell because of his T versatility. But nobody else (including Heck) would really be in that conversation. Assuming health across the board – keeping 9 OL with this combination and having 8 active on gameday would be a solid group in my opinion. Wallace on the field isn’t going to wow you. He’s not the most powerful, he’s not the most athletic – but he’s also pretty decent in both regards. He’d be the type of guy that you’d be OK with as your 5th starter, but you’d still be exploring options to upgrade. I think he’s pretty even in both his pass pro and run game with mostly pretty solid reps and a handful of really good and really bad reps. There could be some untapped potential in the OZ run game where I think his athleticism (particularly at G) could come out, but that’s still a projection. In the end, I like this signing a lot for the positional need and the time of year.

Caedan Wallace (#70 in the video clips) – This looks like a good move from JES. Here’s my thoughts below and I’d be happy to answer any questions. I’m not going to do a video on Wallace since we’re talking about someone acquired for minimal compensation and was going to be waived pretty early in the offseason process. But there’s some reasons to be optimistic. Wallace was a 3rd round pick in 2024, which was before Vrabel arrived in NE – we see this often where players from a previous regime just aren’t valued by the new staff. I’ve watched all of Wallace’s 2024 snaps, plus his preseason 2025 snaps. He was used all over the place by NE including 6th OL, Tackle, and Guard. So he comes in as a young player and some NFL experience on both sides of the formation. My conclusion is that Wallace should be a near lock to be on the Dolphins 53 man roster. I see him instantly as no worse than OL 8 on this roster behind the starting 5, Salyer and maybe Andrew Meyer (who has C versatility). Wallace would get the leg up on Campbell because of his T versatility. But nobody else (including Heck) would really be in that conversation. Assuming health across the board – keeping 9 OL with this combination and having 8 active on gameday would be a solid group in my opinion. Wallace on the field isn’t going to wow you. He’s not the most powerful, he’s not the most athletic – but he’s also pretty decent in both regards. He’d be the type of guy that you’d be OK with as your 5th starter, but you’d still be exploring options to upgrade. I think he’s pretty even in both his pass pro and run game with mostly pretty solid reps and a handful of really good and really bad reps. There could be some untapped potential in the OZ run game where I think his athleticism (particularly at G) could come out, but that’s still a projection. In the end, I like this signing a lot for the positional need and the time of year.

eric smith

25,656 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Cal Randall was the most fun pitcher I watched all year, consistently attacking lineups with nothing but a 96-99 mph heater from about the most optimal mechanics, and thus release characteristics, as anyone on the planet. A great pick by the Cardinals (round 5, pick 146). Despite struggling with command (14.7% BB), particularly with his infrequently used slider and changeup, Randall's worst-case outcome is a mid-leverage reliever. The fastball would immediately become top-10 in MLB (96.7 mph, 18/10, 5.2 ft release, 7+ ft extension), and any semblance of a slider above ~25% usage should keep hitters guessing enough to get Major League outs. A damn high floor for a fifth-round pick. The relief risk is as high as it gets, but with the improvements in pitching development in St. Louis, I wouldn't count anything out. Without much history at all in pitch design or biomechanical work, Randall may be able to unlock a more consistent feel for strikes or a better breaking ball. From his profile, I'd start by trying to find a true gyro. Current slider is 87 mph (7/-2). Changeup exactly mirrors fastball at 89 mph. Why not shoot for such upside in the fifth round?

Matthew Knauer

32,334 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

49ers just wrapped up Block 2 of camp with a reminder of how good Brock Purdy is — even without his top 3 WR (Evans/Stribling injuries are NOT serious), Purdy's offense managed some crisp success: 🏈Demarcus Robinson was Purdy's favorite WR, reminiscent of when 49ers beat Philly with a skeleton crew. The deep out was the duo's bread and better 🏈Best play: Excellent one-handed catch from TE Brayden Willis on a corner route from Mac Jones. 🏈Deommodore Lenoir had two more PBUs — including one on a Purdy-Robinson deep out. CB1 been very active this camp and said this morning on KNBR that he's as locked in as ever 🏈6-3 rookie CB Ephesians Prysock notched a nice reaching PBU vs 5-9 Junior Bergen. 🏈Speaking of Bergen, he's making quite a few plays on offense and I wouldn't be quick to discount him in the punt return battle. FWIW, Bergen has made more offensive plays than Jacob Cowing, with whom he may be in a battle for a 53-man spot 🏈49ers did some red-zone work today where safety Ji'Ayir Brown had a nice, athletic PBU in the corner against TE Jake Tonges. Jordan Watkins later caught a TD from Jones in the corner 🏈New RB Khalil Herbert is wearing No. 40. He dished out some real contact on his first run — at 212 but just 5-9, Herbert is not a player defenders enjoy running in to. He'll be in the KR mix alongside Deebo Samuel — "hell yeah, let's go!" was Boyer's reaction to the Deebo signing 🏈LB Nick Martin dropped what should've been an easy INT from Kurtis Rourke, but he was in correct position. Later he made a nice stop on a Kyle Juszczyk catch 🏈Team drills started with a nice CMC run (he's had a handful already). And yes, as I've stated already and will discuss more, rookie Jaden Dugger worked with the thinned-out DE group for the first time. He did notch a would-be sack. A lot to unpack when it comes to his talent and that move as the 49ers navigate the dog days. More soon...

49ers just wrapped up Block 2 of camp with a reminder of how good Brock Purdy is — even without his top 3 WR (Evans/Stribling injuries are NOT serious), Purdy's offense managed some crisp success: 🏈Demarcus Robinson was Purdy's favorite WR, reminiscent of when 49ers beat Philly with a skeleton crew. The deep out was the duo's bread and better 🏈Best play: Excellent one-handed catch from TE Brayden Willis on a corner route from Mac Jones. 🏈Deommodore Lenoir had two more PBUs — including one on a Purdy-Robinson deep out. CB1 been very active this camp and said this morning on KNBR that he's as locked in as ever 🏈6-3 rookie CB Ephesians Prysock notched a nice reaching PBU vs 5-9 Junior Bergen. 🏈Speaking of Bergen, he's making quite a few plays on offense and I wouldn't be quick to discount him in the punt return battle. FWIW, Bergen has made more offensive plays than Jacob Cowing, with whom he may be in a battle for a 53-man spot 🏈49ers did some red-zone work today where safety Ji'Ayir Brown had a nice, athletic PBU in the corner against TE Jake Tonges. Jordan Watkins later caught a TD from Jones in the corner 🏈New RB Khalil Herbert is wearing No. 40. He dished out some real contact on his first run — at 212 but just 5-9, Herbert is not a player defenders enjoy running in to. He'll be in the KR mix alongside Deebo Samuel — "hell yeah, let's go!" was Boyer's reaction to the Deebo signing 🏈LB Nick Martin dropped what should've been an easy INT from Kurtis Rourke, but he was in correct position. Later he made a nice stop on a Kyle Juszczyk catch 🏈Team drills started with a nice CMC run (he's had a handful already). And yes, as I've stated already and will discuss more, rookie Jaden Dugger worked with the thinned-out DE group for the first time. He did notch a would-be sack. A lot to unpack when it comes to his talent and that move as the 49ers navigate the dog days. More soon...

David Lombardi

46,415 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I encourage attackers to drive at the hips of defenders for a few reason; — 1v1 is a duel of footwork (momentum) & angles, the avenue to space is through an angle which can disrupt the opponent’s footwork (momentum) — It offers big-space players a reference to be successful in small spaces — Directly confronting the defender (driving/touching the ball towards their hips [centre]) means you’re moving into their ‘personal space’, which naturally makes humans uncomfortable, increasing the probability for the defender to make an impulsive reaction to your action. • We know Garnacho’s relationship with the ball isn’t watertight, a consequence of his narrow footwork, which reflects in his dribbling & shooting actions —> more specifically, his inability to make many multi-directional touches in his stride + his loose connections with the ball. Because of this he’s more likely to pose threat in bigger spaces, as he’s a willing goal-getter & has fair speed, but struggles to manufacture big enough space for his key actions when the opponents congest space deeper. • What trumps all of this is Garnacho lacking methodology in his dribbling, which would help him maximise his strengths & minamise the affect of his weaknesses. Garnacho drives towards the goal with the intention to cut inside and open an angle on his strong foot, but this angle of approach keeps the defender parallel to the ball (good momentum & maintain footwork) and closer to the space inside that Garnacho wants to take If he had driven at the hips (squared his man up) he could’ve; = pushed the opponent’s momentum onto back foot = reduced the need for sharp COD touches to access the inside angle (his weak point) & maintain his own momentum = kept open bigger space either side of him If you want big space, you have to make it. Targetting the defender’s central point within their personal space can support this.

I encourage attackers to drive at the hips of defenders for a few reason; — 1v1 is a duel of footwork (momentum) & angles, the avenue to space is through an angle which can disrupt the opponent’s footwork (momentum) — It offers big-space players a reference to be successful in small spaces — Directly confronting the defender (driving/touching the ball towards their hips [centre]) means you’re moving into their ‘personal space’, which naturally makes humans uncomfortable, increasing the probability for the defender to make an impulsive reaction to your action. • We know Garnacho’s relationship with the ball isn’t watertight, a consequence of his narrow footwork, which reflects in his dribbling & shooting actions —> more specifically, his inability to make many multi-directional touches in his stride + his loose connections with the ball. Because of this he’s more likely to pose threat in bigger spaces, as he’s a willing goal-getter & has fair speed, but struggles to manufacture big enough space for his key actions when the opponents congest space deeper. • What trumps all of this is Garnacho lacking methodology in his dribbling, which would help him maximise his strengths & minamise the affect of his weaknesses. Garnacho drives towards the goal with the intention to cut inside and open an angle on his strong foot, but this angle of approach keeps the defender parallel to the ball (good momentum & maintain footwork) and closer to the space inside that Garnacho wants to take If he had driven at the hips (squared his man up) he could’ve; = pushed the opponent’s momentum onto back foot = reduced the need for sharp COD touches to access the inside angle (his weak point) & maintain his own momentum = kept open bigger space either side of him If you want big space, you have to make it. Targetting the defender’s central point within their personal space can support this.

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17,576 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

This type of goal makes coaches cream their pants. Look at this set face off play for the game winner winner earls on main chili chicken dinner. Let’s break it down: 👇 #1 starts with a face off win. Low to high. #2 D to D (spread the defense out) and find Scheifele who rolled off his check at the dot and found space on a wheel route behind the net to find open ice on the other side of the zone. (Dot width). Aka Get lost in space. Create confusion. #3 Morrissey distributes the puck back down to MS who then corrals the pill and surveys his options while getting his toe caps back down ice towards the net, at worst presenting as a shooting option himself. #4 And the key to this whole play? Offense away from the puck. Kyle Connor recognizes time and space and gets available for a one timer by putting himself in a shooting position leaving the slot and fanning out. Lastly, The NHL is all about finding the 2 on 1. Finding the one timer. This was poetry in motion and lost coverage from #Stlblues that cost them the game. - People’s breakdown

This type of goal makes coaches cream their pants. Look at this set face off play for the game winner winner earls on main chili chicken dinner. Let’s break it down: 👇 #1 starts with a face off win. Low to high. #2 D to D (spread the defense out) and find Scheifele who rolled off his check at the dot and found space on a wheel route behind the net to find open ice on the other side of the zone. (Dot width). Aka Get lost in space. Create confusion. #3 Morrissey distributes the puck back down to MS who then corrals the pill and surveys his options while getting his toe caps back down ice towards the net, at worst presenting as a shooting option himself. #4 And the key to this whole play? Offense away from the puck. Kyle Connor recognizes time and space and gets available for a one timer by putting himself in a shooting position leaving the slot and fanning out. Lastly, The NHL is all about finding the 2 on 1. Finding the one timer. This was poetry in motion and lost coverage from #Stlblues that cost them the game. - People’s breakdown

Jordan Schmaltz

98,033 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

OF Nick Dumesnil (California Baptist Baseball) is one of the higher upside college bats in this year's Draft. Showed flashes across a limited sample as a Freshman, but exploded last year to the tune of a .362/.440/.702 slash line with 40 XBH (19 HRs) and 45 RBIs across 61 games. Proceeded to have an excellent summer on the Cape in which he hit .311/.378/.489 with a league-leading 12 2B, 4 HR, 15 RBIs and a league-leading 26 SB in 36 games. Strong, athletic frame at 6'2" and 205-pounds. Big league body. Slightly wide base in the box with a somewhat high handset (lowered his hands as the summer went on, was ultra-high at school with his bat pointed almost straight down behind his back shoulder. Drew Burress-ish look). Ultra-small stride that is more of a toe tap than anything else. Hands already start pretty far back, though they drift slightly in his load. Engaged lower-half, especially his back side. Easy plus bat speed. Dumesnil showed the ability to drive the baseball to all fields both at school and on the Cape. Would give his power a 55 overall, but it's a 6 to the pull side. Top spun a 2-run HR (EV of 106) off the scoreboard in the ASG. Very curious to monitor how his hit tool progresses this spring. There's a present feel for the barrel and his bat-to-ball skills are plus (ovr. IZ contact rate of 90%, including 93% and 91% against FB and SL, respectively). Will certainly need to shore up his pitch recognition skills and swing decisions in order to maximize his offensive upside. Some chase up/out against FB, down/out against secondaries. Key will be doing a better job of picking up spin out of the hand. Plus runner—who most importantly knows HOW to run—whose speed translates on both sides of the baseball. Chaos-causer on the bases, Dumesnil's speed also gives him the opportunity to take an extra base on a ball in the gap or down the line. I thought his instincts in CF got better as the summer went on. Dumesnil's speed and elite athleticism allow him to cover plenty of ground and his arm is average, I'm sure he'll get the opportunity to prove he can stick there in pro ball. Chance he could move off and end up at a corner eventually. Key for Dumesnil is adding polish to his hit tool. There is 5-tool upside (key word) with him and he can impact the game in a number of ways. Potential first round pick this July. (📽️: California Baptist Baseball)

OF Nick Dumesnil (California Baptist Baseball) is one of the higher upside college bats in this year's Draft. Showed flashes across a limited sample as a Freshman, but exploded last year to the tune of a .362/.440/.702 slash line with 40 XBH (19 HRs) and 45 RBIs across 61 games. Proceeded to have an excellent summer on the Cape in which he hit .311/.378/.489 with a league-leading 12 2B, 4 HR, 15 RBIs and a league-leading 26 SB in 36 games. Strong, athletic frame at 6'2" and 205-pounds. Big league body. Slightly wide base in the box with a somewhat high handset (lowered his hands as the summer went on, was ultra-high at school with his bat pointed almost straight down behind his back shoulder. Drew Burress-ish look). Ultra-small stride that is more of a toe tap than anything else. Hands already start pretty far back, though they drift slightly in his load. Engaged lower-half, especially his back side. Easy plus bat speed. Dumesnil showed the ability to drive the baseball to all fields both at school and on the Cape. Would give his power a 55 overall, but it's a 6 to the pull side. Top spun a 2-run HR (EV of 106) off the scoreboard in the ASG. Very curious to monitor how his hit tool progresses this spring. There's a present feel for the barrel and his bat-to-ball skills are plus (ovr. IZ contact rate of 90%, including 93% and 91% against FB and SL, respectively). Will certainly need to shore up his pitch recognition skills and swing decisions in order to maximize his offensive upside. Some chase up/out against FB, down/out against secondaries. Key will be doing a better job of picking up spin out of the hand. Plus runner—who most importantly knows HOW to run—whose speed translates on both sides of the baseball. Chaos-causer on the bases, Dumesnil's speed also gives him the opportunity to take an extra base on a ball in the gap or down the line. I thought his instincts in CF got better as the summer went on. Dumesnil's speed and elite athleticism allow him to cover plenty of ground and his arm is average, I'm sure he'll get the opportunity to prove he can stick there in pro ball. Chance he could move off and end up at a corner eventually. Key for Dumesnil is adding polish to his hit tool. There is 5-tool upside (key word) with him and he can impact the game in a number of ways. Potential first round pick this July. (📽️: California Baptist Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

21,730 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The New Yorker just dropped a massive investigation into Sam Altman, based on over 100 interviews, the previously undisclosed "Ilya Memos," and Dario Amodei's 200+ pages of private notes. It's the most detailed account yet of the pattern of behavior that led to Sam's firing and rapid reinstatement at OpenAI. Here's the breakdown: > Ilya compiled ~70 pages of Slack messages, HR documents, and photos taken on personal phones to avoid detection on company devices. He sent them to board members as disappearing messages. The first memo begins with a list headed "Sam exhibits a consistent pattern of . . ." The first item is "Lying." > Dario kept detailed private notes for years under the heading "My Experience with OpenAI" (subheading: "Private: Do Not Share"), totaling 200+ pages. His conclusion: "The problem with OpenAI is Sam himself." > Sam reportedly told Mira his allies were "going all out" and "finding bad things" to damage her reputation after the firing. Thrive put its planned $86B investment on hold and implied it would only close if Sam returned, giving employees financial incentive to back him. > Sam texted Satya Nadella directly to propose the new board composition: "bret, larry summers, adam as the board and me as ceo and then bret handles the investigation." The two new members selected to oversee an independent inquiry into Sam were chosen after close conversations with Sam himself. > Before OpenAI, senior employees at Loopt asked the board to fire Sam as CEO on two separate occasions over concerns about leadership and transparency. At Y Combinator, partners complained to Paul Graham about Sam's behavior, and Graham privately told colleagues "Sam had been lying to us all the time." > OpenAI's superalignment team was promised 20% of the company's compute. Four people who worked on or with the team said actual resources were 1-2%, mostly on the oldest cluster with the worst chips. The team was dissolved without completing its mission. > Sam told the board that safety features in GPT-4 had been approved by a safety panel. Helen Toner requested documentation and found the most controversial features had not been approved. Sam also never mentioned to the board that Microsoft released an early ChatGPT version in India without completing a required safety review. > Sam made a secret pact with Greg and Ilya where he agreed to resign if they both deemed it necessary, essentially appointing his own shadow board. The actual board was alarmed when they learned about it. > Sam struck a deal with Greg to become CEO while simultaneously telling researchers that Greg's authority would be diminished, and telling Greg something different. > A board member described Sam as having "two traits almost never seen in the same person: a strong desire to please people in any given interaction, and almost a sociopathic lack of concern for the consequences of deceiving someone." Multiple sources independently used the word "sociopathic." > OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO at a potential $1 trillion valuation while securing government contracts spanning immigration enforcement, domestic surveillance, and autonomous weaponry in war zones.

The New Yorker just dropped a massive investigation into Sam Altman, based on over 100 interviews, the previously undisclosed "Ilya Memos," and Dario Amodei's 200+ pages of private notes. It's the most detailed account yet of the pattern of behavior that led to Sam's firing and rapid reinstatement at OpenAI. Here's the breakdown: > Ilya compiled ~70 pages of Slack messages, HR documents, and photos taken on personal phones to avoid detection on company devices. He sent them to board members as disappearing messages. The first memo begins with a list headed "Sam exhibits a consistent pattern of . . ." The first item is "Lying." > Dario kept detailed private notes for years under the heading "My Experience with OpenAI" (subheading: "Private: Do Not Share"), totaling 200+ pages. His conclusion: "The problem with OpenAI is Sam himself." > Sam reportedly told Mira his allies were "going all out" and "finding bad things" to damage her reputation after the firing. Thrive put its planned $86B investment on hold and implied it would only close if Sam returned, giving employees financial incentive to back him. > Sam texted Satya Nadella directly to propose the new board composition: "bret, larry summers, adam as the board and me as ceo and then bret handles the investigation." The two new members selected to oversee an independent inquiry into Sam were chosen after close conversations with Sam himself. > Before OpenAI, senior employees at Loopt asked the board to fire Sam as CEO on two separate occasions over concerns about leadership and transparency. At Y Combinator, partners complained to Paul Graham about Sam's behavior, and Graham privately told colleagues "Sam had been lying to us all the time." > OpenAI's superalignment team was promised 20% of the company's compute. Four people who worked on or with the team said actual resources were 1-2%, mostly on the oldest cluster with the worst chips. The team was dissolved without completing its mission. > Sam told the board that safety features in GPT-4 had been approved by a safety panel. Helen Toner requested documentation and found the most controversial features had not been approved. Sam also never mentioned to the board that Microsoft released an early ChatGPT version in India without completing a required safety review. > Sam made a secret pact with Greg and Ilya where he agreed to resign if they both deemed it necessary, essentially appointing his own shadow board. The actual board was alarmed when they learned about it. > Sam struck a deal with Greg to become CEO while simultaneously telling researchers that Greg's authority would be diminished, and telling Greg something different. > A board member described Sam as having "two traits almost never seen in the same person: a strong desire to please people in any given interaction, and almost a sociopathic lack of concern for the consequences of deceiving someone." Multiple sources independently used the word "sociopathic." > OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO at a potential $1 trillion valuation while securing government contracts spanning immigration enforcement, domestic surveillance, and autonomous weaponry in war zones.

Ryan

3,250,789 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

My experience as a Defenders fan going to STL America's Center & The Dome for an away game. This was a solo trip, did not bring my family on this one. The St. Louis Battlehawks home games truly are one of the special environments for United Football League. I’ve been to 4 AWAY games for DC Defenders over the last 12 months and the environment for this one was fired up! They definitely should NOT move STL to a soccer stadium if they keep showing out like they did yesterday. I got to my hotel at 1AM on game day after a late flight from the west coast. I woke up 6 hours later, walked towards the stadium and randomly caught the STL player walk-ins. Then, I walked over to the tailgate and met up with The Bottom Line and enjoyed some mimosas and breakfast burritos with Ed Ploeger and his gang. Thanks for the hospitality! I was able to get him a signed Sam Kidd jersey as a thanks for all he does for the UFL community! After the tailgate, got in for gate drop at 0930, and went straight down to the field. I was able to say hi to a few players and talk with Steven McCrane as his son was nailing 50+ yard field goals with ease. Chatted up and made peace with a few STL fans around me. Once the game started, they had the place LOUD, and my watch kept alerting me that my hearing was getting damaged 🤣 . Being there for the first ever 4 point field goal by Matt McCrane made the travel worth it. After the home fans had a few rounds of beers, the heckling began (which was expected), but I had to pop about 6 beach balls/🎈 as I became the 🎯 for drunk fans as the only DC fan in the section. I tossed the balls back a few times until I immediately got hit with about 3 balls in a row. So that part was a bit of a let down, as I was just trying to enjoy a game. The halftime show was great. Overall, the game experience itself left something to be desired with the penalties and getting harassed by fans who were clearly recording trying to get rage bait engagement on 🎥. Probably won’t be going back to a STL game again, but I’m glad got to check it out! Pregame/Tailgate: 5/5 Halftime: 5/5 Game experience: 3/5 Getting to/from stadium: 5/5

My experience as a Defenders fan going to STL America's Center & The Dome for an away game. This was a solo trip, did not bring my family on this one. The St. Louis Battlehawks home games truly are one of the special environments for United Football League. I’ve been to 4 AWAY games for DC Defenders over the last 12 months and the environment for this one was fired up! They definitely should NOT move STL to a soccer stadium if they keep showing out like they did yesterday. I got to my hotel at 1AM on game day after a late flight from the west coast. I woke up 6 hours later, walked towards the stadium and randomly caught the STL player walk-ins. Then, I walked over to the tailgate and met up with The Bottom Line and enjoyed some mimosas and breakfast burritos with Ed Ploeger and his gang. Thanks for the hospitality! I was able to get him a signed Sam Kidd jersey as a thanks for all he does for the UFL community! After the tailgate, got in for gate drop at 0930, and went straight down to the field. I was able to say hi to a few players and talk with Steven McCrane as his son was nailing 50+ yard field goals with ease. Chatted up and made peace with a few STL fans around me. Once the game started, they had the place LOUD, and my watch kept alerting me that my hearing was getting damaged 🤣 . Being there for the first ever 4 point field goal by Matt McCrane made the travel worth it. After the home fans had a few rounds of beers, the heckling began (which was expected), but I had to pop about 6 beach balls/🎈 as I became the 🎯 for drunk fans as the only DC fan in the section. I tossed the balls back a few times until I immediately got hit with about 3 balls in a row. So that part was a bit of a let down, as I was just trying to enjoy a game. The halftime show was great. Overall, the game experience itself left something to be desired with the penalties and getting harassed by fans who were clearly recording trying to get rage bait engagement on 🎥. Probably won’t be going back to a STL game again, but I’m glad got to check it out! Pregame/Tailgate: 5/5 Halftime: 5/5 Game experience: 3/5 Getting to/from stadium: 5/5

UFL T1SDALE

17,534 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Ronan Farrow just did to Sam Altman what he did to Harvey Weinstein... The New Yorker dropped an 18-month investigation this morning based on 100+ interviews and a stack of internal documents that were never supposed to leave OpenAI. Ilya's secret memos, Dario Amodei's private journal. Board communications, the full picture of who Sam Altman is when the cameras are off. And the pattern starts way before OpenAI. At his first startup Loopt, senior employees went to the board and asked them to fire Sam as CEO. This happened twice, over concerns about leadership and transparency. He left, joined Y Combinator, and the same thing played out. Partners complained to Paul Graham about Sam's behavior. Graham's private take to colleagues: Sam had been lying to us all the time. Nobody removed him, he kept getting promoted. Eventually he landed the CEO seat at what is now the most consequential AI company in the world. Inside OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever spent months compiling evidence: 70 pages of Slack messages, HR documents, and photos taken on personal phones because employees knew company devices were being monitored. He sent everything to the board as disappearing messages so Sam couldn't make it go away. The very first line of his memo lists Sam's core pattern, and the first word on that list is: Lying Dario Amodei saw the same thing and handled it differently. He kept a private journal for years, over 200 pages, titled "My Experience with OpenAI" with a subheading that said "Private: Do Not Share" After all those pages, his conclusion was one sentence: the problem with OpenAI is Sam himself. He eventually left and built Anthropic. 2 of the smartest people in AI independently reached the same verdict. Neither could stop what was happening. The superalignment team, the group responsible for making sure AI doesn't go off the rails, was promised 20% of OpenAI's compute. 4 people who worked on or with the team told The New Yorker the real number was 1-2%, running on the oldest cluster with the worst hardware. The team got dissolved before finishing its work. Safety was a talking point, not a priority. Sam told the board that a safety panel had approved controversial features in GPT-4. When board member Helen Toner asked for the documentation, it turned out the most sensitive features had never been approved at all. Separately, Microsoft released an early version of ChatGPT in India without completing a required safety review and Sam never mentioned it to the board. When the board finally fired him in November 2023, he texted Satya Nadella directly with his own replacement board lineup. Thrive Capital put its planned $86B investment on hold and signaled it would only close if Sam came back, giving every OpenAI employee a financial reason to support his return. The 2 board members selected to run the "independent investigation" into Sam's conduct were chosen after close conversations with Sam himself. He engineered his own reinstatement and nobody blinked. The New Yorker quotes a board member describing Sam as having two traits you almost never see in the same person: a desperate need to be liked in every interaction, and a near-complete indifference to the consequences of deceiving someone. Multiple sources used the word "sociopathic" without being prompted and without talking to each other. The article also drops a line that might be the best summary of the whole thing. They compare Sam to Steve Jobs and his famous "reality distortion field" then point out that even Jobs never told his customers that if they didn't buy his MP3 player, everyone they loved would die. Sam wrapped that exact pitch in the language of AI safety and rode it to a potential $1T IPO. That IPO is being prepared right now, while OpenAI signs government contracts spanning immigration enforcement, domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons deployed in active war zones. Meanwhile, The Information reports that his own CFO told colleagues she doesn't believe the company is ready to go public in 2026. Farrow is answering questions on Hacker News right now. The full piece is open access. Read it before Sam figures out how to make this disappear too

Ronan Farrow just did to Sam Altman what he did to Harvey Weinstein... The New Yorker dropped an 18-month investigation this morning based on 100+ interviews and a stack of internal documents that were never supposed to leave OpenAI. Ilya's secret memos, Dario Amodei's private journal. Board communications, the full picture of who Sam Altman is when the cameras are off. And the pattern starts way before OpenAI. At his first startup Loopt, senior employees went to the board and asked them to fire Sam as CEO. This happened twice, over concerns about leadership and transparency. He left, joined Y Combinator, and the same thing played out. Partners complained to Paul Graham about Sam's behavior. Graham's private take to colleagues: Sam had been lying to us all the time. Nobody removed him, he kept getting promoted. Eventually he landed the CEO seat at what is now the most consequential AI company in the world. Inside OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever spent months compiling evidence: 70 pages of Slack messages, HR documents, and photos taken on personal phones because employees knew company devices were being monitored. He sent everything to the board as disappearing messages so Sam couldn't make it go away. The very first line of his memo lists Sam's core pattern, and the first word on that list is: Lying Dario Amodei saw the same thing and handled it differently. He kept a private journal for years, over 200 pages, titled "My Experience with OpenAI" with a subheading that said "Private: Do Not Share" After all those pages, his conclusion was one sentence: the problem with OpenAI is Sam himself. He eventually left and built Anthropic. 2 of the smartest people in AI independently reached the same verdict. Neither could stop what was happening. The superalignment team, the group responsible for making sure AI doesn't go off the rails, was promised 20% of OpenAI's compute. 4 people who worked on or with the team told The New Yorker the real number was 1-2%, running on the oldest cluster with the worst hardware. The team got dissolved before finishing its work. Safety was a talking point, not a priority. Sam told the board that a safety panel had approved controversial features in GPT-4. When board member Helen Toner asked for the documentation, it turned out the most sensitive features had never been approved at all. Separately, Microsoft released an early version of ChatGPT in India without completing a required safety review and Sam never mentioned it to the board. When the board finally fired him in November 2023, he texted Satya Nadella directly with his own replacement board lineup. Thrive Capital put its planned $86B investment on hold and signaled it would only close if Sam came back, giving every OpenAI employee a financial reason to support his return. The 2 board members selected to run the "independent investigation" into Sam's conduct were chosen after close conversations with Sam himself. He engineered his own reinstatement and nobody blinked. The New Yorker quotes a board member describing Sam as having two traits you almost never see in the same person: a desperate need to be liked in every interaction, and a near-complete indifference to the consequences of deceiving someone. Multiple sources used the word "sociopathic" without being prompted and without talking to each other. The article also drops a line that might be the best summary of the whole thing. They compare Sam to Steve Jobs and his famous "reality distortion field" then point out that even Jobs never told his customers that if they didn't buy his MP3 player, everyone they loved would die. Sam wrapped that exact pitch in the language of AI safety and rode it to a potential $1T IPO. That IPO is being prepared right now, while OpenAI signs government contracts spanning immigration enforcement, domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons deployed in active war zones. Meanwhile, The Information reports that his own CFO told colleagues she doesn't believe the company is ready to go public in 2026. Farrow is answering questions on Hacker News right now. The full piece is open access. Read it before Sam figures out how to make this disappear too

BP

16,557 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

2025 UGA-Texas game has been on SEC Network today. Had it on in the background while doing some stuff around the house. Couple random thoughts… - Really impressed with the back that Nate Frazier became last year. Doled out a lot of punishment in that 4th quarter - Kirby’s big game experience has allowed him to feel momentum and take his swings (4th&5/onside) before it becomes predictable. As the sport continues to compress, that might be worth a couple wins a year - Gunner’s ability to influence second/third level defenders off RPO/rollout/play-action looks when UGA gets the run going is really good. When gap scheme runs are hitting they become really hard to defend, especially when using the depth of the TE room to offset predictability. - UGA has to fight temptation to go into a shell after an early turnover. Lot of wasted possessions after Gunner’s INT in that game. - Zayden Walker’s bend off the edge is high level. Will be fun to watch in 2026 - Losing Bobo/Harris in those last two games is why Kirby and every other SEC coach are distressed by the CFP selection process and a 9-game SEC schedule - Mike Bobo is the favorite punching bag of some but he was cooking in the fourth quarter of that game. Found ways to freeze defenders and create leverage after Texas keyed in on Branch and did a good job stuffing a lot of zone looks up front.

2025 UGA-Texas game has been on SEC Network today. Had it on in the background while doing some stuff around the house. Couple random thoughts… - Really impressed with the back that Nate Frazier became last year. Doled out a lot of punishment in that 4th quarter - Kirby’s big game experience has allowed him to feel momentum and take his swings (4th&5/onside) before it becomes predictable. As the sport continues to compress, that might be worth a couple wins a year - Gunner’s ability to influence second/third level defenders off RPO/rollout/play-action looks when UGA gets the run going is really good. When gap scheme runs are hitting they become really hard to defend, especially when using the depth of the TE room to offset predictability. - UGA has to fight temptation to go into a shell after an early turnover. Lot of wasted possessions after Gunner’s INT in that game. - Zayden Walker’s bend off the edge is high level. Will be fun to watch in 2026 - Losing Bobo/Harris in those last two games is why Kirby and every other SEC coach are distressed by the CFP selection process and a 9-game SEC schedule - Mike Bobo is the favorite punching bag of some but he was cooking in the fourth quarter of that game. Found ways to freeze defenders and create leverage after Texas keyed in on Branch and did a good job stuffing a lot of zone looks up front.

Graham Coffey

36,100 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

A day in the life of an 100,000+ acre farm. Meetings start at the shop at 4:30am. You get in your drill and head off to your designated seeding area. There is about a 70km radius of crops to seed from the main binyard. I always thought 4:30am was so awesome. Imagine having to get everyone on board to wake up at 4am daily to crush acres, it’s a feat in this day and age undoubtedly. It’s also a reason why few can compete against operations like this, pure savagery. Every team that seeds together gets a crew truck. Nothing pisses a tired crew off more than being late & chances are you are driving your own truck out to the seeder when you show up late. It has to run like clockwork to seed everything in a timely manner because you may lose some days to rain. Typically you would run as long as you can every single day. A 16 hour days are easy, it’s the back to back to back 18 or 20 hour days that are killers. I really enjoyed the long hours, I had started to track every one of my movements by acres. I knew on a perfect day I could do about 766 acres a day, but every turn I would deduct acres, stop to piss I would deduct acres, run out and grab supper I would deduct acres, fill the seeder I would deduct acres, check my runs I would deduct acres, fix my hoses I would deduct acres, I knew exactly how to bang out an awesome day and that usually meant no liquids after 10am so I didn’t have to stop to piss. Not everyone did this, in fact probably no one but me did this but I was obsessed with efficiency at the time. Seeding could last anywhere from 25 to 45 days depending. 2 of the seeding units were kept to finish sloughs, while the rest of the tractors were cleaned up, serviced and dropped back off at the JD dealership. 5 or 6 tractors were kept for grain carts to use at harvest but next seeding year all brand new JD tractors will be used, there is never used tractors used, the deadline is far too important and the dependability & warranty is crucial to complete seeding on time.

bu/ac

57,117 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

I'm a EURUSD only swing trader and passed a $50k Lucid Flex account within a week. As a swing trader I never understood the big deal with Futures props or why they became so popular. I've taken the time to try and understand a little more recently and felt the only way to understand it would be to experience it for myself - and go through the process. So I purchased a Lucid Flex account last week - and am within $200 of hitting the $3k target on a $50k account. First time ever doing Futures - and I've been trading them the exact same way I have always traded. EURUSD only on the 4hr tf for entries and exits. So far from what I can tell is that it's the cheap cost of entry that reels people in. The challenges are "maybe" easier to pass as they are quicker to pass (6% required and no daily loss limit) but there are also consistency rules and an end of day trailing DD of $2k to contend with which shouldn't be a problem for an intra-day trader anyway. So I'll give futures props the win when it comes to speed of passing an eval. After that, should you get to funded I really still don't see the attraction as the payouts are limited to $2k for a standard $50k acc which is what most people go for as far as I know (due to the favourable max loss/profit ratio required). You can buy 5x $50k accts with firms such as Lucid and Tradeify so IF you make it to payout and copy trade all your accounts that's a $10k payout with 1 firm on x5 accounts. Not only that - but you are limited to 1 contract on the first 1k of profits, then 2 contracts once you hit $2k etc.. so it's basically another added phase once you're funded as you are limited to what you can do (maybe not a bad thing). AND you are also required to build a $2k buffer I believe before you can even withdraw? So to withdraw $2k on a $50k acc you need to make $4k? Once you get into it the only thing my learning experience so far has led me to believe is that we have a LOT of desperate traders with very little cash to invest in a proper CFD challenge. Which then leads me to believe 90%+ of the space is filled with gamblers who are uneducated in the craft of trading. If I were to say the word 'Personal account' to a lot of younger people nowadays they would most likely look at me with a confused face. For me - the payout potential just doesn't get me going. As someone whose been used to 5k-40k payouts over my 21 months trading CFD props (I haven't traded props since April 2025) the amount of money you can make with a CFD 2step program is far greater imo. Happy to have someone more experienced in the Futures space comment below and convince/educate me otherwise. Hopefully I can pass this account and get to a payout but I'll continue to document the process here! I've just purchased 4 more accounts with Lucid to copy trade as all this effort for a potential $2k payout just isn't the one. Let's see how it goes. Not only that, but I've also decided to purchase 5x $50k accounts with Tradeify on the Select Program. It's basically the same as the Lucid Flex account but the eval stage has a 40% consistency rule instead of 50% consistency like the Lucid Flex accounts. I'll continue to document and update on my progress but more importantly I look forward to your comments/questions below!

I'm a EURUSD only swing trader and passed a $50k Lucid Flex account within a week. As a swing trader I never understood the big deal with Futures props or why they became so popular. I've taken the time to try and understand a little more recently and felt the only way to understand it would be to experience it for myself - and go through the process. So I purchased a Lucid Flex account last week - and am within $200 of hitting the $3k target on a $50k account. First time ever doing Futures - and I've been trading them the exact same way I have always traded. EURUSD only on the 4hr tf for entries and exits. So far from what I can tell is that it's the cheap cost of entry that reels people in. The challenges are "maybe" easier to pass as they are quicker to pass (6% required and no daily loss limit) but there are also consistency rules and an end of day trailing DD of $2k to contend with which shouldn't be a problem for an intra-day trader anyway. So I'll give futures props the win when it comes to speed of passing an eval. After that, should you get to funded I really still don't see the attraction as the payouts are limited to $2k for a standard $50k acc which is what most people go for as far as I know (due to the favourable max loss/profit ratio required). You can buy 5x $50k accts with firms such as Lucid and Tradeify so IF you make it to payout and copy trade all your accounts that's a $10k payout with 1 firm on x5 accounts. Not only that - but you are limited to 1 contract on the first 1k of profits, then 2 contracts once you hit $2k etc.. so it's basically another added phase once you're funded as you are limited to what you can do (maybe not a bad thing). AND you are also required to build a $2k buffer I believe before you can even withdraw? So to withdraw $2k on a $50k acc you need to make $4k? Once you get into it the only thing my learning experience so far has led me to believe is that we have a LOT of desperate traders with very little cash to invest in a proper CFD challenge. Which then leads me to believe 90%+ of the space is filled with gamblers who are uneducated in the craft of trading. If I were to say the word 'Personal account' to a lot of younger people nowadays they would most likely look at me with a confused face. For me - the payout potential just doesn't get me going. As someone whose been used to 5k-40k payouts over my 21 months trading CFD props (I haven't traded props since April 2025) the amount of money you can make with a CFD 2step program is far greater imo. Happy to have someone more experienced in the Futures space comment below and convince/educate me otherwise. Hopefully I can pass this account and get to a payout but I'll continue to document the process here! I've just purchased 4 more accounts with Lucid to copy trade as all this effort for a potential $2k payout just isn't the one. Let's see how it goes. Not only that, but I've also decided to purchase 5x $50k accounts with Tradeify on the Select Program. It's basically the same as the Lucid Flex account but the eval stage has a 40% consistency rule instead of 50% consistency like the Lucid Flex accounts. I'll continue to document and update on my progress but more importantly I look forward to your comments/questions below!

The Euro Trader

24,583 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

Winter Weather Advisory ⚠️ for Lake Cook Dupage and Will counties and south from there from 6PM Saturday to 6PM Sunday If it was just system #snow giving us a glancing blow from the expansive southern storm dumping every type of weather from #Chicago to the gulf coast, an easy forecast of 1”-4” north to south would be on the table But dance with the devil we must as Lake Michigan sits poised to be either a reluctant dance partner or the lead tango dancer in the snow show Forecasts range from 2”-9” in the city. 2” means no lake impact, 9” means we get a long duration lake feed I’m leaning toward the latter, as entrenched cold air, mid and low level wind convergence over the lake, a lengthy North-Northeast wind fetch and still open mid lake surface water should be enough to loft even a little moisture 2-3 miles upward to feast on an excellent snowflake growth zone that will feed into the immediate Chicago shore areas and add another 3”-5” to the system snow. Another tricky point is the ratio of liquid to snowfall. Usually we see a 10 to 1 mix. 0.1” liquid=1” snow. This cold air here will double that to 20 to 1 so even an extra 1/4 inch of liquid would be 5” of snow (0.25x20=5.0) to add in And by immediate shore areas I could see Midway getting double what O’Hare gets. Like Cicero Ave and east being a cutoff Here’s the model variance. Snow would start to trickle in about sunset Saturday and just hang out thru much of Sunday into the afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory ⚠️ for Lake Cook Dupage and Will counties and south from there from 6PM Saturday to 6PM Sunday If it was just system #snow giving us a glancing blow from the expansive southern storm dumping every type of weather from #Chicago to the gulf coast, an easy forecast of 1”-4” north to south would be on the table But dance with the devil we must as Lake Michigan sits poised to be either a reluctant dance partner or the lead tango dancer in the snow show Forecasts range from 2”-9” in the city. 2” means no lake impact, 9” means we get a long duration lake feed I’m leaning toward the latter, as entrenched cold air, mid and low level wind convergence over the lake, a lengthy North-Northeast wind fetch and still open mid lake surface water should be enough to loft even a little moisture 2-3 miles upward to feast on an excellent snowflake growth zone that will feed into the immediate Chicago shore areas and add another 3”-5” to the system snow. Another tricky point is the ratio of liquid to snowfall. Usually we see a 10 to 1 mix. 0.1” liquid=1” snow. This cold air here will double that to 20 to 1 so even an extra 1/4 inch of liquid would be 5” of snow (0.25x20=5.0) to add in And by immediate shore areas I could see Midway getting double what O’Hare gets. Like Cicero Ave and east being a cutoff Here’s the model variance. Snow would start to trickle in about sunset Saturday and just hang out thru much of Sunday into the afternoon.

WindyCity Weather and News

55,195 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

$IREN "we haven't disclosed the specific amount of GPUs" 1. 🤮 reminds me of $NBIS 2. Setting a terrible precedent here for future deals 3. Making it purposely difficult, to not let analysts properly value your 2027 revenue 4. Increasing the polarized view on IREN by the market However: "approximately 60MW of air-cooled Blackwells" 1. You typically don't talk about gross capacity in a deployment like this 2. If it would be gross capacity, the GPU hour rate at IT level would be crazy high (at PUE 1.2, $680m / 50 = 13.6m/MW) 3. At 60MW IT load, and ~14kW draw at DGX server level, we can get to ~4,286 DGX systems with 8 GPUs per. 4. Based on this we can conclude that 60MW of IT load can run approximately 34k DGX B300. 5. 34k DGX B300 at $680m/yr, would represent a GPU hour price of $2.28 Now this is the problem with not disclosing your GPU quantity. You purposely make your business model look bad, because by approach, you get to a GPU hour price that would imply a payback period of 4 years, where only the last year of the contract is 100% margin. But of course, we can also take "the glass is half full" approach. IREN has ordered 50K B300s from Dell. They have 2 purchase orders for this, 1 between Dell Canada and IE CA Leasing Ltd for 4 phases, and 1 between Dell USA and IE US Hardware 1 Inc (amended from IE US Hardware 4 Inc on April 27, 2026). The order for Canada is divided in 4 phases, and are going to Mackenzie for 80MW of gross capacity, which happens to be 4 buildings of 20MW. The order for Childress is divided in 2 phases, and are going to DC35 and DC36, (as depicted in the earnings presentation) and those are 50MW gross. The purchase price of the order for Childress was $1.2B, and for Canada it was $2.3B If we go with 50,000 B300s for a total of $3.5B then $1.2 would represent 34.285% of the 50,000 GPUs, or 17,140 B300s rounded down. For this calculation I will consider that $IREN will deploy 17,140 GPUs in 50MW gross capacity in DC35 and DC36 of block 3 in Childress.. That would imply at 1.2 PUE, IREN can run 17,140 B300s in 41.67MW IT load. Now by that ratio, they can run 24,680 GPUs in 60MW IT load — a massive difference with 34k units through the Nvidia DGX reference calculation. If common sense is applied, you can still get to 2 completely different outcomes, that show a difference of more than 9k GPUs. The GPU hour rate at 24.68k GPUs would be $3.145 per B300, as MASSIVE difference from the earlier calculated $2.28. Sure, the DGX system may be a factor here. And I'm sure that the reality is somewhere in the middle. But I personally hate this as an investor, to be unable to calculate profitability on unit economic basis. After all, contracts are signed on a $/GPU hour basis. Why hide this from your investors? Not being able to calculate payback periods, unable to calculate ROIC. And most importantly, we cannot properly assess the $NVDA deal on a contract basis. I really hope the payback period of this contract is not 4 years. I want the glass to be half full, but by starting to censor the purchases, IREN is taking a step in the wrong direction. Not a fan of this.

$IREN "we haven't disclosed the specific amount of GPUs" 1. 🤮 reminds me of $NBIS 2. Setting a terrible precedent here for future deals 3. Making it purposely difficult, to not let analysts properly value your 2027 revenue 4. Increasing the polarized view on IREN by the market However: "approximately 60MW of air-cooled Blackwells" 1. You typically don't talk about gross capacity in a deployment like this 2. If it would be gross capacity, the GPU hour rate at IT level would be crazy high (at PUE 1.2, $680m / 50 = 13.6m/MW) 3. At 60MW IT load, and ~14kW draw at DGX server level, we can get to ~4,286 DGX systems with 8 GPUs per. 4. Based on this we can conclude that 60MW of IT load can run approximately 34k DGX B300. 5. 34k DGX B300 at $680m/yr, would represent a GPU hour price of $2.28 Now this is the problem with not disclosing your GPU quantity. You purposely make your business model look bad, because by approach, you get to a GPU hour price that would imply a payback period of 4 years, where only the last year of the contract is 100% margin. But of course, we can also take "the glass is half full" approach. IREN has ordered 50K B300s from Dell. They have 2 purchase orders for this, 1 between Dell Canada and IE CA Leasing Ltd for 4 phases, and 1 between Dell USA and IE US Hardware 1 Inc (amended from IE US Hardware 4 Inc on April 27, 2026). The order for Canada is divided in 4 phases, and are going to Mackenzie for 80MW of gross capacity, which happens to be 4 buildings of 20MW. The order for Childress is divided in 2 phases, and are going to DC35 and DC36, (as depicted in the earnings presentation) and those are 50MW gross. The purchase price of the order for Childress was $1.2B, and for Canada it was $2.3B If we go with 50,000 B300s for a total of $3.5B then $1.2 would represent 34.285% of the 50,000 GPUs, or 17,140 B300s rounded down. For this calculation I will consider that $IREN will deploy 17,140 GPUs in 50MW gross capacity in DC35 and DC36 of block 3 in Childress.. That would imply at 1.2 PUE, IREN can run 17,140 B300s in 41.67MW IT load. Now by that ratio, they can run 24,680 GPUs in 60MW IT load — a massive difference with 34k units through the Nvidia DGX reference calculation. If common sense is applied, you can still get to 2 completely different outcomes, that show a difference of more than 9k GPUs. The GPU hour rate at 24.68k GPUs would be $3.145 per B300, as MASSIVE difference from the earlier calculated $2.28. Sure, the DGX system may be a factor here. And I'm sure that the reality is somewhere in the middle. But I personally hate this as an investor, to be unable to calculate profitability on unit economic basis. After all, contracts are signed on a $/GPU hour basis. Why hide this from your investors? Not being able to calculate payback periods, unable to calculate ROIC. And most importantly, we cannot properly assess the $NVDA deal on a contract basis. I really hope the payback period of this contract is not 4 years. I want the glass to be half full, but by starting to censor the purchases, IREN is taking a step in the wrong direction. Not a fan of this.

Frans Bakker

148,167 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten