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🚨JP MORGAN WANTS TO DESTORY MSTR?!?!?!?!🫣 - Current risks facing MSTR..? - MSCI review on Bitcoin Treasury Co's..? - JP Morgan's attack plan & hidden next steps..? Let's discuss:

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BRITISH HODL ❤️‍🔥🐂❤️‍🔥

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53,795 次观看 • 9 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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If you’re wondering what is going on with $Bitcoin, $MSTR and JP Morgan, you need to listen to this👇 It’s probably the most important thing you’re going to read today. H/t: @HodlMaryland
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The ₿itcoin Therapist

307,311 次观看 • 9 个月前

Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇
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Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇

One Chair

32,736 次观看 • 8 天前

Most people still think Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF is just "Japan's" $MSTR. They're missing the bigger picture. Metaplanet isn't copying Strategy. It's building a global Bitcoin capital machine that could become impossible to compete with. In this conversation with THE BITCOIN PHARAOH, we discuss: • Why Metaplanet's strategy is fundamentally different • The hidden advantage of operating in Japan • What $STRC and $SATA taught every Bitcoin treasury • Why cash-flow businesses may be the next evolution of Bitcoin treasury companies • Why Strive $ASST is emerging as a serious contender • What Metaplanet could become in a Bitcoin standard 00:00 Introduction: The BTCPharaoh's Bitcoin Journey 07:09 Why Metaplanet Is Different From Every Other Bitcoin Treasury 11:03 Mercury & Mars: The Next Bitcoin Financial Products? 11:52 What Metaplanet Learned From Strategy's STRC Depeg 15:26 Will Bitcoin Preferred Shares Become Truly Stable? 19:05 Is Metaplanet About to Launch a U.S. Preferred Stock? 20:57 Why Japan Gives Metaplanet a Massive Advantage 22:47 The "Double Carry Trade" That Could Supercharge Bitcoin Buying 26:34 Why Metaplanet Isn't Just Copying Strategy 29:39 Simon Gerovich's Long-Term Vision Is Finally Making Sense 30:12 Will Metaplanet Build Bitcoin Infrastructure Beyond Finance? 32:27 Why the New Board Members Could Change Everything 34:08 Why Less Communication Might Actually Be Bullish 37:56 The One Question He Would Ask Simon Gerovich 39:45 Is NAKA a Hidden Opportunity... or a Value Trap? 45:01 The Most Underrated Bitcoin Treasury Company Right Now 47:55 Europe Could Be the Next Bitcoin Treasury Battleground 48:40 Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bull Market or Bear Market? 50:55 The Biggest Mistake Bitcoin Investors Keep Making 52:19 Where to Follow TheBTCPharaoh Watch the full episode 👇
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Most people still think Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF is just "Japan's" $MSTR. They're missing the bigger picture. Metaplanet isn't copying Strategy. It's building a global Bitcoin capital machine that could become impossible to compete with. In this conversation with THE BITCOIN PHARAOH, we discuss: • Why Metaplanet's strategy is fundamentally different • The hidden advantage of operating in Japan • What $STRC and $SATA taught every Bitcoin treasury • Why cash-flow businesses may be the next evolution of Bitcoin treasury companies • Why Strive $ASST is emerging as a serious contender • What Metaplanet could become in a Bitcoin standard 00:00 Introduction: The BTCPharaoh's Bitcoin Journey 07:09 Why Metaplanet Is Different From Every Other Bitcoin Treasury 11:03 Mercury & Mars: The Next Bitcoin Financial Products? 11:52 What Metaplanet Learned From Strategy's STRC Depeg 15:26 Will Bitcoin Preferred Shares Become Truly Stable? 19:05 Is Metaplanet About to Launch a U.S. Preferred Stock? 20:57 Why Japan Gives Metaplanet a Massive Advantage 22:47 The "Double Carry Trade" That Could Supercharge Bitcoin Buying 26:34 Why Metaplanet Isn't Just Copying Strategy 29:39 Simon Gerovich's Long-Term Vision Is Finally Making Sense 30:12 Will Metaplanet Build Bitcoin Infrastructure Beyond Finance? 32:27 Why the New Board Members Could Change Everything 34:08 Why Less Communication Might Actually Be Bullish 37:56 The One Question He Would Ask Simon Gerovich 39:45 Is NAKA a Hidden Opportunity... or a Value Trap? 45:01 The Most Underrated Bitcoin Treasury Company Right Now 47:55 Europe Could Be the Next Bitcoin Treasury Battleground 48:40 Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bull Market or Bear Market? 50:55 The Biggest Mistake Bitcoin Investors Keep Making 52:19 Where to Follow TheBTCPharaoh Watch the full episode 👇

One Chair

88,315 次观看 • 2 个月前

$MSTR MicroStrategy: A Pyramid Scheme Lying To Investors? (Part 2) As of 9/30/2024, MSTR had 252,220 BTC on their balance sheet and 235,100,000 shares outstanding. ➡️This equates to .0010728 BTC /share. On November 20th, MSTR decided to raise $2.6B via convertibles, which is enough money to buy 25,490 new Bitcoin. For the convertible, the conversion price was set at $672.40 and the conversion ratio was set at 1.48. This means upon conversion, 3,866,720 new shares will be issued and outstanding. ➡️With full purchasing power, these investors should be entitled to 3,866,720/25,490=.0065922 BTC /share, as this was their contribution to the balance sheet. ➡️However, following the deal, the "New MicroStrategy" now has 277,710 Bitcoin on their balance sheet and 238,866,720 shares outstanding, which equates to just .0011621 BTC /share (a far cry from what they're entitled). ➡️These investors took a loss up front on their purchasing power (down to .0011621 BTC /share) because of "intelligent leverage," or the thought that more capital would come in after them and prop their own BTC /share up. After all, the holders of MSTR stock on 9/30/2024 saw an 8.32% increase in their BTC /share as a result of this financing round. Now, let's say MicroStrategy repeats this financing round. $2.6B in convertible debt that converts into 3,866,720 shares. ➡️Skipping the math, (for the same amount of financing) shareholders only saw a 7.44% increase in their BTC /share this time, which now sits at .0012486. ➡️This demonstrates that MSTR needs larger and larger financing rounds (endless funding) to prop up BTC /share, or their financing deals will keep making a smaller and smaller impact and investors will never reach the BTC /share that they're entitled to. 💥For exposure to MSTR's Bitcoin to be worth it, you need your BTC /share to rise from the current .0012486 to .0065922 (a 427.96% increase) or higher. Otherwise, you'd be better off buying your own Bitcoin because you'd own more if it in your pocket than you would in MSTR's balance sheet. Bull or bear market, there are better options for Bitcoin exposure right now. If any $MSTR bull wants to have a civil discussion about this, I'm open to it. I'm open to new thoughts or being proven wrong. But, I'm tired of the power trips and people degrading me as a human simply because I have an alternative thesis to theirs. My DMs are open.
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$MSTR MicroStrategy: A Pyramid Scheme Lying To Investors? (Part 2) As of 9/30/2024, MSTR had 252,220 BTC on their balance sheet and 235,100,000 shares outstanding. ➡️This equates to .0010728 BTC /share. On November 20th, MSTR decided to raise $2.6B via convertibles, which is enough money to buy 25,490 new Bitcoin. For the convertible, the conversion price was set at $672.40 and the conversion ratio was set at 1.48. This means upon conversion, 3,866,720 new shares will be issued and outstanding. ➡️With full purchasing power, these investors should be entitled to 3,866,720/25,490=.0065922 BTC /share, as this was their contribution to the balance sheet. ➡️However, following the deal, the "New MicroStrategy" now has 277,710 Bitcoin on their balance sheet and 238,866,720 shares outstanding, which equates to just .0011621 BTC /share (a far cry from what they're entitled). ➡️These investors took a loss up front on their purchasing power (down to .0011621 BTC /share) because of "intelligent leverage," or the thought that more capital would come in after them and prop their own BTC /share up. After all, the holders of MSTR stock on 9/30/2024 saw an 8.32% increase in their BTC /share as a result of this financing round. Now, let's say MicroStrategy repeats this financing round. $2.6B in convertible debt that converts into 3,866,720 shares. ➡️Skipping the math, (for the same amount of financing) shareholders only saw a 7.44% increase in their BTC /share this time, which now sits at .0012486. ➡️This demonstrates that MSTR needs larger and larger financing rounds (endless funding) to prop up BTC /share, or their financing deals will keep making a smaller and smaller impact and investors will never reach the BTC /share that they're entitled to. 💥For exposure to MSTR's Bitcoin to be worth it, you need your BTC /share to rise from the current .0012486 to .0065922 (a 427.96% increase) or higher. Otherwise, you'd be better off buying your own Bitcoin because you'd own more if it in your pocket than you would in MSTR's balance sheet. Bull or bear market, there are better options for Bitcoin exposure right now. If any $MSTR bull wants to have a civil discussion about this, I'm open to it. I'm open to new thoughts or being proven wrong. But, I'm tired of the power trips and people degrading me as a human simply because I have an alternative thesis to theirs. My DMs are open.

Ben Briggs

64,212 次观看 • 1 年前

Bitcoin treasury companies are evolving FAST. In this conversation with Joe Burnett, MSBA, we discussed: • Why digital credit $STRC $SATA could be Bitcoin’s next major catalyst • How Strive $ASST is becoming one of Bitcoin’s most important treasury companies • Michael Saylor’s latest move with Strategy $MSTR • Why altcoins may struggle going forward • The rise of “amplified Bitcoin” • How Bitcoin-backed yield products could reshape Wall Street • Why Bitcoin could eventually reach $1.6M One of the biggest takeaways: Bitcoin is no longer just an asset: an entire financial system is being built on top of it. This feels a lot like Bitcoin in 2015… most people still don’t understand what’s coming. 00:00 Joe Burnett's Journey into Bitcoin 06:42 What Joe Burnett Actually Does at Strive 07:53 Why Strive Is Moving Faster Than Every Other Bitcoin Treasury Company 13:09 Strategy’s Shocking New Bitcoin Selling Plan Explained 19:06 The Most Important Takeaway from Strategy’s Earnings Call 25:18 Why Altcoins May Never Recover Against Bitcoin 28:11 Why Debt Is Dangerous for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 30:43 “The World Will Change This Week” — What Is Strive Building? 31:44 Strive’s New Digital Credit ETF Explained 34:31 Joe Burnett Reacts to Jeff Walton vs Coffeezilla 39:07 The Insurance Analogy That Changed the Debate 43:07 Which Bitcoin Treasury Companies Actually Matter? 47:58 Will Digital Credit Replace the 60/40 Portfolio? 52:17 Could Digital Credit Dividend Rates Stay High Forever? 57:58 Why Joe Thinks Bitcoin Is Entering a Historic New Era Full episode 👇
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Bitcoin treasury companies are evolving FAST. In this conversation with Joe Burnett, MSBA, we discussed: • Why digital credit $STRC $SATA could be Bitcoin’s next major catalyst • How Strive $ASST is becoming one of Bitcoin’s most important treasury companies • Michael Saylor’s latest move with Strategy $MSTR • Why altcoins may struggle going forward • The rise of “amplified Bitcoin” • How Bitcoin-backed yield products could reshape Wall Street • Why Bitcoin could eventually reach $1.6M One of the biggest takeaways: Bitcoin is no longer just an asset: an entire financial system is being built on top of it. This feels a lot like Bitcoin in 2015… most people still don’t understand what’s coming. 00:00 Joe Burnett's Journey into Bitcoin 06:42 What Joe Burnett Actually Does at Strive 07:53 Why Strive Is Moving Faster Than Every Other Bitcoin Treasury Company 13:09 Strategy’s Shocking New Bitcoin Selling Plan Explained 19:06 The Most Important Takeaway from Strategy’s Earnings Call 25:18 Why Altcoins May Never Recover Against Bitcoin 28:11 Why Debt Is Dangerous for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 30:43 “The World Will Change This Week” — What Is Strive Building? 31:44 Strive’s New Digital Credit ETF Explained 34:31 Joe Burnett Reacts to Jeff Walton vs Coffeezilla 39:07 The Insurance Analogy That Changed the Debate 43:07 Which Bitcoin Treasury Companies Actually Matter? 47:58 Will Digital Credit Replace the 60/40 Portfolio? 52:17 Could Digital Credit Dividend Rates Stay High Forever? 57:58 Why Joe Thinks Bitcoin Is Entering a Historic New Era Full episode 👇

One Chair

15,547 次观看 • 3 个月前

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 次观看 • 11 个月前

🚨 AI + Tesla Optimus is about to rewrite the global economy. In our latest episode with Cern Basher, we break down why Tesla’s humanoid robots + robotaxis could drive double-digit GDP growth… and why this could ignite a Bitcoin supercycle. Key takeaways: - $TSLA Optimus ramp: 1M → 10M robots/year - One robot factory could generate output comparable to the GDP of an entire country - Robotaxis scaling could happen MUCH faster than Wall Street expects - AI agents will flood cyberspace… and Bitcoin may become the security gate - “AI consumes compute. Bitcoin prices compute.” - Strategy’s flywheel $MSTR + $STRC could be setting up the next massive phase This episode connects the dots between AI deflation, government printing, and why $BTC may become the backbone of the AI economy. 00:00 Introduction Cern Basher 02:11 AI Agents Pick Bitcoin (It’s Already Happening) 03:01 Elon’s Master Plan: xAI + SpaceX + Tesla Merger? 06:34 Why Bitcoin Might Be the BEST AI Investment 10:43 “AI Consumes Compute… Bitcoin Prices Compute” 13:46 MSTR / Strategy: Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Win 19:16 Strategy’s New Flywheel: STRC + ATM Explained 25:04 Elon Predicts Double-Digit GDP Growth (Is He Right?) 34:55 Tesla Optimus Timeline: 1M → 10M Robots Per Year 40:16 Tesla Robotaxis Are Scaling FAST (Doubling Every Month?) 43:11 Why Robotaxi Delays Don’t Matter (Tesla Still Wins) 46:46 When Will Tesla Start Buying Bitcoin Again? 50:05 Nvidia + Bitcoin? Big Tech May Flip Soon 53:18 Why Most People STILL Don’t Understand Bitcoin 56:00 US Military Studying Bitcoin for Cybersecurity? 59:27 Final Warning: Every Country Must Build Robot Factories
1:05:32

🚨 AI + Tesla Optimus is about to rewrite the global economy. In our latest episode with Cern Basher, we break down why Tesla’s humanoid robots + robotaxis could drive double-digit GDP growth… and why this could ignite a Bitcoin supercycle. Key takeaways: - $TSLA Optimus ramp: 1M → 10M robots/year - One robot factory could generate output comparable to the GDP of an entire country - Robotaxis scaling could happen MUCH faster than Wall Street expects - AI agents will flood cyberspace… and Bitcoin may become the security gate - “AI consumes compute. Bitcoin prices compute.” - Strategy’s flywheel $MSTR + $STRC could be setting up the next massive phase This episode connects the dots between AI deflation, government printing, and why $BTC may become the backbone of the AI economy. 00:00 Introduction Cern Basher 02:11 AI Agents Pick Bitcoin (It’s Already Happening) 03:01 Elon’s Master Plan: xAI + SpaceX + Tesla Merger? 06:34 Why Bitcoin Might Be the BEST AI Investment 10:43 “AI Consumes Compute… Bitcoin Prices Compute” 13:46 MSTR / Strategy: Why Bitcoin Treasury Companies Win 19:16 Strategy’s New Flywheel: STRC + ATM Explained 25:04 Elon Predicts Double-Digit GDP Growth (Is He Right?) 34:55 Tesla Optimus Timeline: 1M → 10M Robots Per Year 40:16 Tesla Robotaxis Are Scaling FAST (Doubling Every Month?) 43:11 Why Robotaxi Delays Don’t Matter (Tesla Still Wins) 46:46 When Will Tesla Start Buying Bitcoin Again? 50:05 Nvidia + Bitcoin? Big Tech May Flip Soon 53:18 Why Most People STILL Don’t Understand Bitcoin 56:00 US Military Studying Bitcoin for Cybersecurity? 59:27 Final Warning: Every Country Must Build Robot Factories

One Chair

17,947 次观看 • 6 个月前

🐂 “What’s going to happen to Strategy is going to be absolutely mind blowing come summer/fall of 2025” - Preston Pysh sees insanity on the horizon. Michael Saylor’s playing a 4D game of chess that is carefully engineered around the BTC cycles. James Check (_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️) hasn’t studied $MSTR fully, but understands the market dynamics at play and what can happen to a equity that has a options market with absurd volatility that is tied to Bitcoin during a bull run. The velocity of the flywheel shows up as short sellers are forced to buy high, and $MSTR shareholders sell to convert to BTC. Listen to Preston and James discuss what’s in stor e for this cycle on the latest The Investor's Podcast episode. 🗯️ “The market moves slower than people expect, but being prepared puts you in a better position.” - James Check Key insights: 💼 Institutional Demand Holds Strong: After a 7-month consolidation above $1.2 trillion, Bitcoin proved its staying power. Every dip was met with significant buying, signaling strong institutional absorption. “Bitcoin belongs above $1 trillion—and now, $1.7 trillion,” says James Check. (02:29) 📊 On-Chain Trends: Long-term holders sold significantly during the consolidation, but selling pressure eased mid-November, paving the way for the current rally. Supply suffocation by holders below $20K creates a strong market floor. (09:02) 🏦 Evolving Exchange Dynamics: Borrowing against Bitcoin instead of selling it is maturing the market. This reduces sell pressure and positions BTC as pristine collateral, even drawing interest from traditional banks. (12:22) ⚡ Bullish Catalysts: A pro-Bitcoin U.S. president, ETF launches, and derivatives are energizing the market, with potential for explosive growth by 2025. However, risks like custody failures or copycat investing strategies loom. (28:30) 🔥 “Euphoria Zone” Alert: New retail interest is surging, yet historical patterns warn this euphoria may only last 6-18 months. Will Bitcoin hit $300K or consolidate before the next leg up? (59:13) Full video: #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #MarketTrends #FinancialFreedom
3:10

🐂 “What’s going to happen to Strategy is going to be absolutely mind blowing come summer/fall of 2025” - Preston Pysh sees insanity on the horizon. Michael Saylor’s playing a 4D game of chess that is carefully engineered around the BTC cycles. James Check (_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️) hasn’t studied $MSTR fully, but understands the market dynamics at play and what can happen to a equity that has a options market with absurd volatility that is tied to Bitcoin during a bull run. The velocity of the flywheel shows up as short sellers are forced to buy high, and $MSTR shareholders sell to convert to BTC. Listen to Preston and James discuss what’s in stor e for this cycle on the latest The Investor's Podcast episode. 🗯️ “The market moves slower than people expect, but being prepared puts you in a better position.” - James Check Key insights: 💼 Institutional Demand Holds Strong: After a 7-month consolidation above $1.2 trillion, Bitcoin proved its staying power. Every dip was met with significant buying, signaling strong institutional absorption. “Bitcoin belongs above $1 trillion—and now, $1.7 trillion,” says James Check. (02:29) 📊 On-Chain Trends: Long-term holders sold significantly during the consolidation, but selling pressure eased mid-November, paving the way for the current rally. Supply suffocation by holders below $20K creates a strong market floor. (09:02) 🏦 Evolving Exchange Dynamics: Borrowing against Bitcoin instead of selling it is maturing the market. This reduces sell pressure and positions BTC as pristine collateral, even drawing interest from traditional banks. (12:22) ⚡ Bullish Catalysts: A pro-Bitcoin U.S. president, ETF launches, and derivatives are energizing the market, with potential for explosive growth by 2025. However, risks like custody failures or copycat investing strategies loom. (28:30) 🔥 “Euphoria Zone” Alert: New retail interest is surging, yet historical patterns warn this euphoria may only last 6-18 months. Will Bitcoin hit $300K or consolidate before the next leg up? (59:13) Full video: #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #MarketTrends #FinancialFreedom

J64 - SignalStation.app

115,137 次观看 • 1 年前

🇨🇭 A Swiss Bitcoin Treasury built with Adam Back is about to attack 600 BILLION in zero-yield Swiss fixed income. "Bitcoin treasuries are the release valve of the fiat Ponzi" -Richard Byworth ∞/21M 📺Full interview: The Chairman of Future & ex-Nomura trader reveals why Switzerland is the PERFECT market for Bitcoin credit: THE SETUP: Swiss 10-year government bonds: 12 basis points Swiss National Bank: Zero rates (going negative again) 600B seeking yield in Swiss francs Future can offer 3-5% Bitcoin-backed credit. "Imagine locking up money for 10 years to get 12 basis points. It's insanity." BREAKTHROUGH FRAMEWORK: "A Bitcoin treasury is a hedge fund sitting on top of an ETF" This is THE analogy that makes traditional finance understand. Richard spent 3 hours at dinner with Adam Back that led to founding & designing products for Future. Now they're launching with a team / board including: Adam Back, co-founder Julian Liniger, CEO of Relai 🇨🇭 Sebastien Hess , serial entrepreneur Vijay Selvam , Attorney, Author, ex-Goldman Teana Baker-Taylor , founder, @SYZCAP , Hedge Fund Partner at Syz Capital Ex-Citadel credit traders CONTROVERSIAL TAKE: "If you can buy Bitcoin at a 20% discount, you should SELL Bitcoin to buy back your shares" H100 trading at 20% below NAV? That's buying Bitcoin at a discount. Religious zealotry around "never sell" is killing shareholder value. He breaks down: ✅ Why Saylor's €620M Stream IPO was genius (waking up institutional Europe) ✅ Metaplanet's put underwriting strategy (generate free Bitcoin premium) ✅ Why family offices understand Bitcoin better than hedge funds ✅ The coming JP Morgan rebellion against treasury companies Best line: "You would never lend money at zero in a real market. The market is being manipulated." Switzerland has negative rates coming. Future is positioned to capture the wave. Follow: Richard Byworth ∞/21M Future: Future STAY ORANGE 🟠
41:19

🇨🇭 A Swiss Bitcoin Treasury built with Adam Back is about to attack 600 BILLION in zero-yield Swiss fixed income. "Bitcoin treasuries are the release valve of the fiat Ponzi" -Richard Byworth ∞/21M 📺Full interview: The Chairman of Future & ex-Nomura trader reveals why Switzerland is the PERFECT market for Bitcoin credit: THE SETUP: Swiss 10-year government bonds: 12 basis points Swiss National Bank: Zero rates (going negative again) 600B seeking yield in Swiss francs Future can offer 3-5% Bitcoin-backed credit. "Imagine locking up money for 10 years to get 12 basis points. It's insanity." BREAKTHROUGH FRAMEWORK: "A Bitcoin treasury is a hedge fund sitting on top of an ETF" This is THE analogy that makes traditional finance understand. Richard spent 3 hours at dinner with Adam Back that led to founding & designing products for Future. Now they're launching with a team / board including: Adam Back, co-founder Julian Liniger, CEO of Relai 🇨🇭 Sebastien Hess , serial entrepreneur Vijay Selvam , Attorney, Author, ex-Goldman Teana Baker-Taylor , founder, @SYZCAP , Hedge Fund Partner at Syz Capital Ex-Citadel credit traders CONTROVERSIAL TAKE: "If you can buy Bitcoin at a 20% discount, you should SELL Bitcoin to buy back your shares" H100 trading at 20% below NAV? That's buying Bitcoin at a discount. Religious zealotry around "never sell" is killing shareholder value. He breaks down: ✅ Why Saylor's €620M Stream IPO was genius (waking up institutional Europe) ✅ Metaplanet's put underwriting strategy (generate free Bitcoin premium) ✅ Why family offices understand Bitcoin better than hedge funds ✅ The coming JP Morgan rebellion against treasury companies Best line: "You would never lend money at zero in a real market. The market is being manipulated." Switzerland has negative rates coming. Future is positioned to capture the wave. Follow: Richard Byworth ∞/21M Future: Future STAY ORANGE 🟠

Tyler Rowe

24,043 次观看 • 8 个月前

Wyoming selected an independent vault operator over JP Morgan for its first physical gold mandate. Josh Philip Phair, the founder who won it, joins The Last Trade to discuss what he calls "The Metal Wars." State treasuries are quietly building gold positions. Central banks are accumulating at the fastest pace in fifty years. The US's largest net export has become gold flowing to China for rare earths. The bid is sovereign, structural, and almost entirely invisible to traditional asset allocators. The parallels for bitcoin are taking shape. The same allocators. The same demand for trust-minimized custody. The same incumbents forced to compete. Whoever holds the most gold (and bitcoin) makes the rules. 00:00 Welcoming Josh Phair 03:42 Gold From $3,300 To $4,700 In Nine Months 07:30 The Metal Wars & Sovereign Accumulation 13:09 CLARITY, Capital Flight & The Banking Lobby 15:33 The Setup For The Biggest Bull Run Yet 24:54 Who Was On Air Force One To China 28:27 The Under-Allocation No Advisor Sees 33:21 Market Structure & Trust-Minimized Custody 40:39 Wyoming As The Property Rights Jurisdiction 44:00 The Phair-Sinclair Ratio & $35,000 Gold 51:46 Distrust As The Real Debasement Trade Driver 54:30 The Tether Seizure & Programmable Money 1:02:57 Beating JP Morgan For The Wyoming Mandate 1:08:45 States As The Next Sovereign Gold Buyers 1:11:59 Last Takes & Where To Find Josh
1:13:23

Wyoming selected an independent vault operator over JP Morgan for its first physical gold mandate. Josh Philip Phair, the founder who won it, joins The Last Trade to discuss what he calls "The Metal Wars." State treasuries are quietly building gold positions. Central banks are accumulating at the fastest pace in fifty years. The US's largest net export has become gold flowing to China for rare earths. The bid is sovereign, structural, and almost entirely invisible to traditional asset allocators. The parallels for bitcoin are taking shape. The same allocators. The same demand for trust-minimized custody. The same incumbents forced to compete. Whoever holds the most gold (and bitcoin) makes the rules. 00:00 Welcoming Josh Phair 03:42 Gold From $3,300 To $4,700 In Nine Months 07:30 The Metal Wars & Sovereign Accumulation 13:09 CLARITY, Capital Flight & The Banking Lobby 15:33 The Setup For The Biggest Bull Run Yet 24:54 Who Was On Air Force One To China 28:27 The Under-Allocation No Advisor Sees 33:21 Market Structure & Trust-Minimized Custody 40:39 Wyoming As The Property Rights Jurisdiction 44:00 The Phair-Sinclair Ratio & $35,000 Gold 51:46 Distrust As The Real Debasement Trade Driver 54:30 The Tether Seizure & Programmable Money 1:02:57 Beating JP Morgan For The Wyoming Mandate 1:08:45 States As The Next Sovereign Gold Buyers 1:11:59 Last Takes & Where To Find Josh

Onramp

39,892 次观看 • 3 个月前

Bill Gates has a Jeffrey Epstein Problem... Bill Gates essentially represents the integrity of the vaccination program. You can't think of vaccines without thinking about this guy. But Bill Gates has chosen to use Jeffrey Epstein (over the past decade) as a close confidant and business partner. And the internal emails that were just released tell you everything you need to know. Jes Staley, the head investment banker at JP Morgan, has his assistant reach out to Jeffrey Epstein with this message: "Hi Jeffrey, Jes Staley asked me to pass along these questions from the JP Morgan team that is putting together some ideas for Gates." Jeffrey Epstein replies. And this is where it gets interesting: "A donor advised fund. It could tie initially just to the Gates program. Minimum gift $100 million. Done right, it's $100 billion in two years." Read that again. $100 billion. In two years. But then the next line reveals the game: "The tension is making money from a charitable organization. Therefore, the money-making part needs to be at arm's length." Translation: Epstein is telling a JP Morgan banker, "Look, I can make you $100 billion in two years, but it's going to be under a charitable organization (the Gates Foundation) who I'm apparently speaking on behalf of. And we're going to have to keep it outside of that whole charitable thing because that's going to look really bad for us because we're supposed to be helping the world with vaccines." Let that sink in. Jeffrey Epstein, a registered sex offender, is brokering deals for Bill Gates. He's speaking on behalf of the Gates Foundation. He's orchestrating a plan to generate $100 billion through what's supposed to be a CHARITABLE organization. And he knows it looks bad. So they keep it "at arm's length." Bill Gates wants you to trust him with your children's health. But he trusted Jeffrey Epstein with his fortune. The emails don't lie. And the relationship runs deep. More coming...
1:26

Bill Gates has a Jeffrey Epstein Problem... Bill Gates essentially represents the integrity of the vaccination program. You can't think of vaccines without thinking about this guy. But Bill Gates has chosen to use Jeffrey Epstein (over the past decade) as a close confidant and business partner. And the internal emails that were just released tell you everything you need to know. Jes Staley, the head investment banker at JP Morgan, has his assistant reach out to Jeffrey Epstein with this message: "Hi Jeffrey, Jes Staley asked me to pass along these questions from the JP Morgan team that is putting together some ideas for Gates." Jeffrey Epstein replies. And this is where it gets interesting: "A donor advised fund. It could tie initially just to the Gates program. Minimum gift $100 million. Done right, it's $100 billion in two years." Read that again. $100 billion. In two years. But then the next line reveals the game: "The tension is making money from a charitable organization. Therefore, the money-making part needs to be at arm's length." Translation: Epstein is telling a JP Morgan banker, "Look, I can make you $100 billion in two years, but it's going to be under a charitable organization (the Gates Foundation) who I'm apparently speaking on behalf of. And we're going to have to keep it outside of that whole charitable thing because that's going to look really bad for us because we're supposed to be helping the world with vaccines." Let that sink in. Jeffrey Epstein, a registered sex offender, is brokering deals for Bill Gates. He's speaking on behalf of the Gates Foundation. He's orchestrating a plan to generate $100 billion through what's supposed to be a CHARITABLE organization. And he knows it looks bad. So they keep it "at arm's length." Bill Gates wants you to trust him with your children's health. But he trusted Jeffrey Epstein with his fortune. The emails don't lie. And the relationship runs deep. More coming...

The HighWire

25,422 次观看 • 6 个月前

Michael Saylor just went on CNBC and said that if Bitcoin drops 90%, he'll simply "refinance the debt" and "roll it forward." This guy is a desperate fraud who has NO CLUE what he's talking about. Let's actually look at what "rolling it forward" means in reality: Strategy holds 714,644 Bitcoin purchased at an average cost of $76,056 per coin. Total acquisition cost: $54.35 billion. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000. Already below their cost basis. The company carries over $8 billion in debt. 100% of its convertible notes are now out of the money. Now imagine Saylor's own scenario. Bitcoin drops 90%. That takes it to roughly $6,800. Strategy's 714,644 Bitcoin would be worth approximately $4.9 billion. Against $8 billion in debt. The assets don't cover the liabilities. Period. And he thinks banks are going to refinance that? On what collateral? On what cash flow? Because Strategy's operating cash flow was negative $138 million in 2025. Down from negative $53 million the year before. The trajectory is going the wrong direction. When asked: "You think banks would lend to you at that point?" Saylor just laughed it off. But here's who's not laughing: 11 state pension funds that bought MSTR as a "regulated proxy" for Bitcoin exposure. CalPERS. New York State. Florida. Wisconsin. New Jersey. Teachers. Firefighters. Police officers. Together they hold 1.8 million shares. Their original investment: $577 million. Current value: $240 million. That's $337 million in paper losses. Most funds are down 60%. CalPERS, the largest public pension fund in the country, bought 448,000 shares for $144 million. That position has been cut nearly in half. These aren't hedge fund cowboys who can stomach a drawdown. These are retirement systems with fiduciary obligations to millions of public workers. Meanwhile $MSTR has fallen from $543 to roughly $123. Down 77% from its all-time high. Saylor says he'll buy Bitcoin "every quarter forever" and will never sell. But that's not how debt works. You don't get to choose when your creditors come calling. You don't get to "roll forward" $8 billion in debt when your only asset has collapsed and your operating business generates negative cash flow. The people who say "we'll just refinance" are always the ones who can't. The question isn't whether Saylor believes in Bitcoin. The question is whether pension funds managing trillions in retirement savings should be exposed to a leveraged single-asset bet run by a man who laughs off a 90% drawdown scenario on national tv. Teachers. Firefighters. State employees. Their retirement savings are sitting inside a company that just posted a $12.4 billion loss and whose chairman's contingency plan is "we'll figure it out." That's STUPID. And the people who'll pay the price aren't on CNBC. They're counting on those pensions to be there when they retire.
0:39

Michael Saylor just went on CNBC and said that if Bitcoin drops 90%, he'll simply "refinance the debt" and "roll it forward." This guy is a desperate fraud who has NO CLUE what he's talking about. Let's actually look at what "rolling it forward" means in reality: Strategy holds 714,644 Bitcoin purchased at an average cost of $76,056 per coin. Total acquisition cost: $54.35 billion. Bitcoin is trading around $68,000. Already below their cost basis. The company carries over $8 billion in debt. 100% of its convertible notes are now out of the money. Now imagine Saylor's own scenario. Bitcoin drops 90%. That takes it to roughly $6,800. Strategy's 714,644 Bitcoin would be worth approximately $4.9 billion. Against $8 billion in debt. The assets don't cover the liabilities. Period. And he thinks banks are going to refinance that? On what collateral? On what cash flow? Because Strategy's operating cash flow was negative $138 million in 2025. Down from negative $53 million the year before. The trajectory is going the wrong direction. When asked: "You think banks would lend to you at that point?" Saylor just laughed it off. But here's who's not laughing: 11 state pension funds that bought MSTR as a "regulated proxy" for Bitcoin exposure. CalPERS. New York State. Florida. Wisconsin. New Jersey. Teachers. Firefighters. Police officers. Together they hold 1.8 million shares. Their original investment: $577 million. Current value: $240 million. That's $337 million in paper losses. Most funds are down 60%. CalPERS, the largest public pension fund in the country, bought 448,000 shares for $144 million. That position has been cut nearly in half. These aren't hedge fund cowboys who can stomach a drawdown. These are retirement systems with fiduciary obligations to millions of public workers. Meanwhile $MSTR has fallen from $543 to roughly $123. Down 77% from its all-time high. Saylor says he'll buy Bitcoin "every quarter forever" and will never sell. But that's not how debt works. You don't get to choose when your creditors come calling. You don't get to "roll forward" $8 billion in debt when your only asset has collapsed and your operating business generates negative cash flow. The people who say "we'll just refinance" are always the ones who can't. The question isn't whether Saylor believes in Bitcoin. The question is whether pension funds managing trillions in retirement savings should be exposed to a leveraged single-asset bet run by a man who laughs off a 90% drawdown scenario on national tv. Teachers. Firefighters. State employees. Their retirement savings are sitting inside a company that just posted a $12.4 billion loss and whose chairman's contingency plan is "we'll figure it out." That's STUPID. And the people who'll pay the price aren't on CNBC. They're counting on those pensions to be there when they retire.

George Noble

136,473 次观看 • 6 个月前

BITCOIN RAILS #59: Post-Quantum Bitcoin Signatures (+ their tradeoffs) | with BIP 360 co-author Ethan ✨ is on BlueSky✨ Heilman 🐱 and Blockstream Head of Research Jonas Nick 🔗 YOUTUBE: 🌿 SPOTIFY: According to BIP 360 co-author Ethan Heilman, Bitcoin needs a minimum of two soft forks to become quantum resistant: P2MR (or an output type that can safely execute PQ signatures) + a post-quantum checksig (signature scheme). Ethan and the BIP 360 team (including myself and Hunter Beast 🕯️) introduced the P2MR part via a BIP 360 update late last year—but the question remains, what’s the most appropriate PQ signature scheme for Bitcoin? They all have substantive tradeoffs, but hash-based signatures seem to be leading technical discourse—likely due to recent optimizations by Jonas Nick and the broader Blockstream research team. It was an honor to sit down with both of these men - arguably the two most influential and productive cryptographers in Bitcoin quantum mitigation right now - for an in-depth review of the leading PQ signature schemes and a temperature check on Bitcoin’s post-quantum planning process. TBH, if you want to skip the noise and jump straight to the signal on quantum, this is the interview to watch. In this episode, we discuss: - What needs to happen at the soft fork, infra, and mitigation levels to fully quantum-harden Bitcoin - Recent updates to BIP 360 + breakdown of the leading hash-based signatures schemes for Bitcoin (SHRINCS + SHRIMPS) - Why we may actually get consensus around a stateful scheme for Bitcoin - Comparisons of hash-based signatures vs Lattice and Isogeny-based schemes - Assessing the risks of both waiting too long and acting too fast (and why quantum is a better threat to be facing than a potential classical attack) This episode of Bitcoin Rails is brought to you by my NEW sponsors: - LayerTwo Labs LayerTwo Labs — developing research, software, and technologies for scaling Bitcoin via the integration of Drivechains (BIP 300/301) - Hashi on Sui — a primitive for executing Bitcoin Defi transactions, without having to trust a federated bridge or other centralized entity - BitBox BitBox — an open-source Bitcoin-only hardware wallet, with smooth UX and no compromises on security. Check out Bitbox [dot] swiss and use code BITCOINRAILS to get a discount TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:18 Ethan’s Quantum Wakeup 05:18 How Blockstream Enters Post Quantum 09:25 BIP 360 Explained 12:11 How Bitcoin Transitions to PQ 17:35 Choosing Post Quantum Signatures 23:20 How Blockstream Created SHRINCS 27:22 Signature Budgets Importance Explained 41:13 What are SHRIMPS? 44:51 SHRIMPS vs SHRINCS 47:48 Why SLH-DSA Alone Won’t Cut It 49:24 Is a SHRIMPS + SHRINCS BIP Coming? 51:51 Blockstream’s Big Plans for Liquid 59:04 Quantum Readiness Roadmap 01:02:22 Importance of a PQ Recovery Plan 01:05:35 How Long Would a PQ Migration Take 01:11:17 Quantum Watchlist Recommendations
1:18:04

BITCOIN RAILS #59: Post-Quantum Bitcoin Signatures (+ their tradeoffs) | with BIP 360 co-author Ethan ✨ is on BlueSky✨ Heilman 🐱 and Blockstream Head of Research Jonas Nick 🔗 YOUTUBE: 🌿 SPOTIFY: According to BIP 360 co-author Ethan Heilman, Bitcoin needs a minimum of two soft forks to become quantum resistant: P2MR (or an output type that can safely execute PQ signatures) + a post-quantum checksig (signature scheme). Ethan and the BIP 360 team (including myself and Hunter Beast 🕯️) introduced the P2MR part via a BIP 360 update late last year—but the question remains, what’s the most appropriate PQ signature scheme for Bitcoin? They all have substantive tradeoffs, but hash-based signatures seem to be leading technical discourse—likely due to recent optimizations by Jonas Nick and the broader Blockstream research team. It was an honor to sit down with both of these men - arguably the two most influential and productive cryptographers in Bitcoin quantum mitigation right now - for an in-depth review of the leading PQ signature schemes and a temperature check on Bitcoin’s post-quantum planning process. TBH, if you want to skip the noise and jump straight to the signal on quantum, this is the interview to watch. In this episode, we discuss: - What needs to happen at the soft fork, infra, and mitigation levels to fully quantum-harden Bitcoin - Recent updates to BIP 360 + breakdown of the leading hash-based signatures schemes for Bitcoin (SHRINCS + SHRIMPS) - Why we may actually get consensus around a stateful scheme for Bitcoin - Comparisons of hash-based signatures vs Lattice and Isogeny-based schemes - Assessing the risks of both waiting too long and acting too fast (and why quantum is a better threat to be facing than a potential classical attack) This episode of Bitcoin Rails is brought to you by my NEW sponsors: - LayerTwo Labs LayerTwo Labs — developing research, software, and technologies for scaling Bitcoin via the integration of Drivechains (BIP 300/301) - Hashi on Sui — a primitive for executing Bitcoin Defi transactions, without having to trust a federated bridge or other centralized entity - BitBox BitBox — an open-source Bitcoin-only hardware wallet, with smooth UX and no compromises on security. Check out Bitbox [dot] swiss and use code BITCOINRAILS to get a discount TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:18 Ethan’s Quantum Wakeup 05:18 How Blockstream Enters Post Quantum 09:25 BIP 360 Explained 12:11 How Bitcoin Transitions to PQ 17:35 Choosing Post Quantum Signatures 23:20 How Blockstream Created SHRINCS 27:22 Signature Budgets Importance Explained 41:13 What are SHRIMPS? 44:51 SHRIMPS vs SHRINCS 47:48 Why SLH-DSA Alone Won’t Cut It 49:24 Is a SHRIMPS + SHRINCS BIP Coming? 51:51 Blockstream’s Big Plans for Liquid 59:04 Quantum Readiness Roadmap 01:02:22 Importance of a PQ Recovery Plan 01:05:35 How Long Would a PQ Migration Take 01:11:17 Quantum Watchlist Recommendations

Isabel Foxen Duke⚡️

23,783 次观看 • 3 个月前

BITCOIN: MY PLAN FOR 2026-2030 CYCLE!!!!! 🚨🚨🚨 0:00 We Are Live – bitcoin:native at 66K & the 200W Moving Average 0:39 Time to Be More Bullish: Price + Time Components 1:18 DCA in the Buy Zone – Overoptimizing Has Diminishing Returns 2:45 The Plan for the Next 4 Years 3:41 Take Profit Area 2029 – Only If Trends Agree 4:19 Warning: This Does NOT Apply to Altcoins 5:07 2027 Should Be the Rebirth – 100%+ From the Lows 6:53 2029: The Hardest Year of the Cycle 8:23 Bullmania: New "Staying Rich" Education 9:35 From $2M to $50K – Respect the Pot of Gold 11:08 Crypto Investor Quiz – Know Your Weaknesses 11:41 Treasury Companies Dying = Bottom Signal 12:00 Jack Mallers Leaves Twenty One (XXI) 13:02 Mark Moss Treasury Shuts Down – Capitalism Works 15:08 Shareholders Force Capital Return – MSTR Governance 16:19 Grok Imagine Remakes The Odyssey (Historically Accurate) 17:08 Hollywood Odyssey Review – The Helen Problem Again 18:38 Should You Buy Coinbase Stock? Not Yet 19:48 Coinbase vs Robinhood – Vlad Executes Better 20:30 Brian Armstrong on the Clarity Act 22:22 Bali Warning: Crypto Guy Gets Phantom Wallet Drained 26:10 Protocol Update – 20% More Liquidity 27:02 Luca Netz: Launching Tokens Directly on NASDAQ 29:47 Robinhood Chain: $700M in 3 Weeks 31:06 RWAs on Uniswap V4 – Trading NVIDIA On-Chain 32:05 Why Solana Wins: Corporate Chains Are Not Competitors 33:29 The Risk of Building on Base – Shareholders Decide 34:43 Jack Mallers' $150M Compensation Story 40:29 Actually… His Options Are Probably Worthless 43:25 Balaji's Network School Signs MoU With Kazakhstan 45:29 OpenAI Model Escapes Sandbox & Hacks Hugging Face 48:14 Live Grok Investigation: Was It Skynet? 50:07 Claude Refused – Chinese Open Source Model Did Forensics 52:29 Easy to Kill – No Skynet, We're Good 53:21 Jack Dorsey's New Slack Alternative for Agents 54:06 Mark Cuban: Data Centers Could Become Pickleball Courts 56:41 What If AI Runs on Your Phone? Apple's Bet 58:28 Apple at All-Time High Without AI Fugazi 1:01:37 Who Is the New Apple CEO Again? 1:02:12 Q&A: Buying Houses With Bitcoin Collateral 1:04:25 Trezor 7 "Quantum Ready" – What It Actually Means 1:06:44 Trezor vs Ledger – The Full Ledger Rant 1:11:21 The Ledger Connect Kit Hack Explained 1:13:06 200W MA Rejection? Final Q&A 1:14:06 Outro – Join the Waitlist & Do the Quiz
1:14:48

BITCOIN: MY PLAN FOR 2026-2030 CYCLE!!!!! 🚨🚨🚨 0:00 We Are Live – bitcoin:native at 66K & the 200W Moving Average 0:39 Time to Be More Bullish: Price + Time Components 1:18 DCA in the Buy Zone – Overoptimizing Has Diminishing Returns 2:45 The Plan for the Next 4 Years 3:41 Take Profit Area 2029 – Only If Trends Agree 4:19 Warning: This Does NOT Apply to Altcoins 5:07 2027 Should Be the Rebirth – 100%+ From the Lows 6:53 2029: The Hardest Year of the Cycle 8:23 Bullmania: New "Staying Rich" Education 9:35 From $2M to $50K – Respect the Pot of Gold 11:08 Crypto Investor Quiz – Know Your Weaknesses 11:41 Treasury Companies Dying = Bottom Signal 12:00 Jack Mallers Leaves Twenty One (XXI) 13:02 Mark Moss Treasury Shuts Down – Capitalism Works 15:08 Shareholders Force Capital Return – MSTR Governance 16:19 Grok Imagine Remakes The Odyssey (Historically Accurate) 17:08 Hollywood Odyssey Review – The Helen Problem Again 18:38 Should You Buy Coinbase Stock? Not Yet 19:48 Coinbase vs Robinhood – Vlad Executes Better 20:30 Brian Armstrong on the Clarity Act 22:22 Bali Warning: Crypto Guy Gets Phantom Wallet Drained 26:10 Protocol Update – 20% More Liquidity 27:02 Luca Netz: Launching Tokens Directly on NASDAQ 29:47 Robinhood Chain: $700M in 3 Weeks 31:06 RWAs on Uniswap V4 – Trading NVIDIA On-Chain 32:05 Why Solana Wins: Corporate Chains Are Not Competitors 33:29 The Risk of Building on Base – Shareholders Decide 34:43 Jack Mallers' $150M Compensation Story 40:29 Actually… His Options Are Probably Worthless 43:25 Balaji's Network School Signs MoU With Kazakhstan 45:29 OpenAI Model Escapes Sandbox & Hacks Hugging Face 48:14 Live Grok Investigation: Was It Skynet? 50:07 Claude Refused – Chinese Open Source Model Did Forensics 52:29 Easy to Kill – No Skynet, We're Good 53:21 Jack Dorsey's New Slack Alternative for Agents 54:06 Mark Cuban: Data Centers Could Become Pickleball Courts 56:41 What If AI Runs on Your Phone? Apple's Bet 58:28 Apple at All-Time High Without AI Fugazi 1:01:37 Who Is the New Apple CEO Again? 1:02:12 Q&A: Buying Houses With Bitcoin Collateral 1:04:25 Trezor 7 "Quantum Ready" – What It Actually Means 1:06:44 Trezor vs Ledger – The Full Ledger Rant 1:11:21 The Ledger Connect Kit Hack Explained 1:13:06 200W MA Rejection? Final Q&A 1:14:06 Outro – Join the Waitlist & Do the Quiz

Ivan on Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania

18,790 次观看 • 1 个月前

Inflation isn’t a mistake. It’s policy. But Bitcoin is an engineered exit. In this episode, we sit down with Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden) — author of Broken Money and one of the most respected voices on macro, monetary history, and Bitcoin. She connects today’s system to the 1920s–1940s cycle — and what it signals for the decade ahead. The system requires ongoing debasement to function. We cover: • Why the 2020s mirror the 1940s, and what to expect as a result in the decade ahead • Why debt-based systems structurally lead to inflation • How the system shifts private debt to the public • Why central banks have been accumulating gold since 2009 • The weakening demand for treasuries — and what it actually signals • What a multipolar reserve system is and why it's already emerging • How inflation works against savers and wage earners • The tradeoffs of deflation • Why scarce assets are the only protection against inflation • How Bitcoin combines gold-like scarcity with modern settlement • What Bitcoin still needs in order to become a global reserve asset If you think in first principles — start here. If you want to better understand money, inflation, and where this system is heading — also start here. Thank you to Lyn for joining us. Follow her: X: Lyn Alden Website: Highlights: 0:00 If the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s mirror the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s respectively… what comes next? 7:52 Implications of continued debasement 9:14 Why there's 325x more broad money per person 12:53 Why deflation can be positive 19:08 Current policy encourages consumption. How should we avoid this? 22:57 Central banks and gold 28:04 U.S. asset freezes and treasury demand 30:40 Why don't other countries just hold neutral assets to avoid freezes? 34:59 Will bitcoin become the world's reserve asset? How can it do so? 39:14 Why the Bretton Woods system was destined to fail 41:42 Have we irreversibly given up control of money to banks? 45:57 Why the system is prone to bank failures 50:08 Why do countries with failing currencies not turn towards hard money? 51:50 How Lyn would fix the money as president 58:31 What Lyn would change about her book Broken Money 1:00:34 Was it coincidence that bitcoin appeared after the 2008 crisis? 1:03:24 Why bitcoin is the solution to broken money 1:08:25 What does bitcoin still need to accomplish to fix the money 1:11:02 What value does MSTR provide to bitcoin?
1:14:09

Inflation isn’t a mistake. It’s policy. But Bitcoin is an engineered exit. In this episode, we sit down with Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden) — author of Broken Money and one of the most respected voices on macro, monetary history, and Bitcoin. She connects today’s system to the 1920s–1940s cycle — and what it signals for the decade ahead. The system requires ongoing debasement to function. We cover: • Why the 2020s mirror the 1940s, and what to expect as a result in the decade ahead • Why debt-based systems structurally lead to inflation • How the system shifts private debt to the public • Why central banks have been accumulating gold since 2009 • The weakening demand for treasuries — and what it actually signals • What a multipolar reserve system is and why it's already emerging • How inflation works against savers and wage earners • The tradeoffs of deflation • Why scarce assets are the only protection against inflation • How Bitcoin combines gold-like scarcity with modern settlement • What Bitcoin still needs in order to become a global reserve asset If you think in first principles — start here. If you want to better understand money, inflation, and where this system is heading — also start here. Thank you to Lyn for joining us. Follow her: X: Lyn Alden Website: Highlights: 0:00 If the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s mirror the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s respectively… what comes next? 7:52 Implications of continued debasement 9:14 Why there's 325x more broad money per person 12:53 Why deflation can be positive 19:08 Current policy encourages consumption. How should we avoid this? 22:57 Central banks and gold 28:04 U.S. asset freezes and treasury demand 30:40 Why don't other countries just hold neutral assets to avoid freezes? 34:59 Will bitcoin become the world's reserve asset? How can it do so? 39:14 Why the Bretton Woods system was destined to fail 41:42 Have we irreversibly given up control of money to banks? 45:57 Why the system is prone to bank failures 50:08 Why do countries with failing currencies not turn towards hard money? 51:50 How Lyn would fix the money as president 58:31 What Lyn would change about her book Broken Money 1:00:34 Was it coincidence that bitcoin appeared after the 2008 crisis? 1:03:24 Why bitcoin is the solution to broken money 1:08:25 What does bitcoin still need to accomplish to fix the money 1:11:02 What value does MSTR provide to bitcoin?

Charles Odei

29,569 次观看 • 3 个月前