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Just wrapped up a 4-part IFRS 9 ECL series with a focus on the modelling. Almost 4hrs in all but to follow through with the modeling you probably need at least 8hrs. Part 1: A brief intro - Classification & Measurement (SPPI, business model assessment, EIR dynamics) Part 2:... ECL framework + EAD Modelling (amortisation profiles, CCF, behavioural assumptions) Part 3: PD Modelling (Markov Chain, transition matrices, lifetime PD term structure) Part 4: LGD + Full ECL (recoveries, collateral projection etc) Some snippets 👇 Also used the opportunity to highlight advanced Excel functions like LET, LAMBDA, and SCAN. Worth exploring if you’re into complex modelling. Of course, it’s almost impossible to cover everything within a limited time. I only just scratch the surface😎. #IFRS9 #ECL #CreditRisk #Quantshow more

Michael

11,396 subscribers

23,339 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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29 条评论

Udo 的头像

Udo5 个月前

You people have five heads, we just can’t see them🫠

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

At all 🤣. My head is not that big self 😀

Udo 的头像

Udo5 个月前

If you insist😂

Habu Sadeik 的头像

Habu Sadeik5 个月前

Thank you boss🙏

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

You are welcome 🙏

Future Governor 的头像

Future Governor5 个月前

Thank you chief and God bless. Two bottles for you anytime I see you. I'm sitting on this for the week.

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

Amen and you too. Haaa 😂😂

Quad 的头像

Quad5 个月前

@lasisioluwafem4 you might need it

Tunde_R 的头像

Tunde_R5 个月前

Thank you for sharing this sir.

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

You’re welcome

⚡Ọluwamayomiwa💡💻 的头像

⚡Ọluwamayomiwa💡💻5 个月前

Thank you for sharing sir.

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

🙏

Femi 的头像

Femi5 个月前

Thanks for sharing boss

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

🙏

Clement 的头像

Clement5 个月前

Well done Boss.

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

Thanks 🙏

BLINL 的头像

BLINL5 个月前

Thanks.

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

You are welcome 🙏

Brian 的头像

Brian5 个月前

Thank you

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

You’re welcome

Olamide 的头像

Olamide5 个月前

@Ogegottweets Solid 📌

OluwaRotimi || 🏊‍♀️🇳🇬 的头像

OluwaRotimi || 🏊‍♀️🇳🇬5 个月前

Thank you, Michael. You are an incredible teacher. What a fresher, especially the part 1. Again, thank you!

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

Thank you 🙏

BIG Jubz🇳🇬🇶🇦 的头像

BIG Jubz🇳🇬🇶🇦5 个月前

Thank you Michael, this is one of the most important standards in ifrs. Weldon 🐐

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

You’re welcome

Abdul Rahmon 的头像

Abdul Rahmon5 个月前

This bros sabi book die 🤦‍♂️ Oluwa o

AGBOOLA BUKUNMI BOOKMITE 🇳🇬⚖️👑✊ 的头像

AGBOOLA BUKUNMI BOOKMITE 🇳🇬⚖️👑✊5 个月前

Thanks for this. Please what app do you use for the recording?

Michael 的头像

Michael5 个月前

OBS

Usman L.O 的头像

Usman L.O4 个月前

@theafees__O This is a whole lot. Thanks bro

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Qullamaggie on Minimum Account Size to Make A Living Off Trading vs. Trading While Working “What do you recommend as a minimum workable account size for your swing strategy? If you want to make a living, probably 500k at least. Or 300k. If you’re only gonna swing trade. But if you work full or part time, and trade part time, and you don’t need to take out money from your trading accounts, you could do it with 10k. If you double your 10k every year, after taxes, you’ll have 20k the next year and 40k the year after, 80k 160k 320k. Even with a small 10k account you’re gonna have millions after 6, 7 years. Once you get profitable. Assuming you don’t put more money in it. But if you’re gonna live off of it, you probably need at least 300-500k. Because with my strategy you’re gonna go sideways - your equity gonna go sideways for months and months at a time every year. The markets we are in right now, it’s a rare market that doesn’t happen most of the time. Right now, it’s almost too easy; everything just keeps going straight up. It’s the best time for my swing trading strategy, but most of the time, it can be a struggle.”

Qullamaggie on Minimum Account Size to Make A Living Off Trading vs. Trading While Working “What do you recommend as a minimum workable account size for your swing strategy? If you want to make a living, probably 500k at least. Or 300k. If you’re only gonna swing trade. But if you work full or part time, and trade part time, and you don’t need to take out money from your trading accounts, you could do it with 10k. If you double your 10k every year, after taxes, you’ll have 20k the next year and 40k the year after, 80k 160k 320k. Even with a small 10k account you’re gonna have millions after 6, 7 years. Once you get profitable. Assuming you don’t put more money in it. But if you’re gonna live off of it, you probably need at least 300-500k. Because with my strategy you’re gonna go sideways - your equity gonna go sideways for months and months at a time every year. The markets we are in right now, it’s a rare market that doesn’t happen most of the time. Right now, it’s almost too easy; everything just keeps going straight up. It’s the best time for my swing trading strategy, but most of the time, it can be a struggle.”

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Most “beautiful hotel” lists start to feel the same after a while. Same infinity pools and beach villas. The same famous names you’ve already seen a hundred times. But the hotels I remember are usually different. They’re the ones with a story behind them. A castle in Ireland where the rain and old stone feel like part of the stay. A desert resort in the Empty Quarter that looks like it rose out of the sand. A palace in Udaipur where you arrive by boat across the lake. A former military fortress in Mallorca turned into one of the most quietly beautiful hotels in the Mediterranean. And then there’s Giraffe Manor in Nairobi. It sounds made up until you see it. An old ivy-covered manor from the 1930s, set in green gardens, where giraffes wander up to the windows during breakfast. That could easily feel like a gimmick, but it doesn’t. Part of what makes it special is that the property is tied to conservation work for endangered Rothschild giraffes. So the magic of the place has some purpose behind it. That’s the kind of hotel I highlight in this series. Not just places with nice rooms. Places with a setting. Places with history. Places that make you stop and think, “How did I not know this existed?” I’m writing a five-part series for The Timeless Traveler on 50 of the most beautiful hotels in the world you’ve probably never heard of. Part 4 is out now. It includes hotels in Mexico, Kenya, Spain, Switzerland, India, Ireland, the UAE, England and Italy. If you love beautiful places, hidden gems, old-world hotels, strange settings, and travel ideas worth saving, I’d love to have you subscribe to the newsletter. That’s where I’m sharing the full series, along with more other places around the world you should know about.

The Timeless Traveler 🇺🇸

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40,134 次观看 • 8 个月前

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- Notion 2.0, 2026 plans - Alright guys, here’s a sneak peek at what the educational material inside Notion has become and what the plans are for this year. Over the past 2 years, I’ve written extensively. The result? A complete trading course, structured and accessible even if you’re starting from zero. We’re now talking about 1,700+ pages of PDFs covering everything from basic to advanced concepts. From market structure to Wyckoff, from AMT to SMC not just through written material, but also supported by in-depth video content. It’s truly a comprehensive learning path. And this year, it’s going to be expanded even further with new content across multiple areas: - Technical: time cycles, execution models, deeper operational frameworks. - Fundamental: with a strong focus on traditional finance. - Psychological: new practical guides and tools designed to help you stay calm, build discipline, and develop the right mindset. On top of that, there will also be live training sessions to make the experience even more interactive and dynamic. If you combine all of this with weekly and bi-weekly market analysis, video updates, and a tight-knit, growth-oriented community… what you get is not just a course, but a high-level learning experience. A special thank you to MisterPA of course not only for expanding the Notion with his educational videos, but for actively contributing with updates and analysis that are bringing real value to all members. If you’re looking for a structured growth path, one designed to guide you step by step, even if you’re starting from scratch.. this is exactly what you need.

ZERO IKA 🗡️

29,518 次观看 • 8 个月前

a team of researchers just proved you don't need a bigger model, you need a smarter plan researchers from Tsinghua and South China University of Technology built a framework called Atomic Task Graph. it turned 7B-8B open-source models into GPT-4 competitors on complex agent benchmarks, beating it on two out of three. no fine-tuning. no extra training. zero parameter updates. current AI agents plan in a straight line. step 1, step 2, step 3. when step 4 fails, the whole chain breaks. and the longer the chain gets, the more the model hallucinates because it's reasoning over a ballooning text history. here's how it works. 1. instead of a linear chain, ATG breaks any complex task into a directed graph where subtask inputs and outputs are explicitly mapped 2. it recursively decomposes each subtask until every node is one atomic tool call 3. independent branches run in parallel instead of waiting in line 4. before anything executes, a lightweight "thought experiment" simulates the plan internally to catch bad dependencies and missing steps early 5. when something breaks at runtime, ATG traces the failure to the exact subgraph that caused it and repairs only that piece. validated work stays frozen. the old way meant a failure at step 5 forced a full replan from scratch. hallucinated actions piled up the longer the task ran. ReAct hit a 43% hallucination rate on household tasks. ATG on an 8B Llama model scored 63.65 on ALFWorld. GPT-4 with ReAct scored 41.24 on the same benchmark. hallucinated actions dropped to 12%. those numbers happened because someone stopped throwing compute at the problem and started thinking about how work gets organized. that's the part that gets me. the industry is spending billions on scale. this team spent time on architecture. and the architecture won.

a team of researchers just proved you don't need a bigger model, you need a smarter plan researchers from Tsinghua and South China University of Technology built a framework called Atomic Task Graph. it turned 7B-8B open-source models into GPT-4 competitors on complex agent benchmarks, beating it on two out of three. no fine-tuning. no extra training. zero parameter updates. current AI agents plan in a straight line. step 1, step 2, step 3. when step 4 fails, the whole chain breaks. and the longer the chain gets, the more the model hallucinates because it's reasoning over a ballooning text history. here's how it works. 1. instead of a linear chain, ATG breaks any complex task into a directed graph where subtask inputs and outputs are explicitly mapped 2. it recursively decomposes each subtask until every node is one atomic tool call 3. independent branches run in parallel instead of waiting in line 4. before anything executes, a lightweight "thought experiment" simulates the plan internally to catch bad dependencies and missing steps early 5. when something breaks at runtime, ATG traces the failure to the exact subgraph that caused it and repairs only that piece. validated work stays frozen. the old way meant a failure at step 5 forced a full replan from scratch. hallucinated actions piled up the longer the task ran. ReAct hit a 43% hallucination rate on household tasks. ATG on an 8B Llama model scored 63.65 on ALFWorld. GPT-4 with ReAct scored 41.24 on the same benchmark. hallucinated actions dropped to 12%. those numbers happened because someone stopped throwing compute at the problem and started thinking about how work gets organized. that's the part that gets me. the industry is spending billions on scale. this team spent time on architecture. and the architecture won.

Alex Veremeyenko

174,269 次观看 • 2 个月前

I’ve decided I’m going to be stepping away from X. Further to my post the other day about leaving journalism, I’ve been thinking about what I want to do going forward, and I just don’t see much purpose in being on here at the moment. I may come back to X in the future, particularly if I decide to stay within the political field, take on a role within politics, or find myself in a position where I feel X requires my attention. But until then, I’m going to be leaving it. I think stepping away from X also connects with my issues with the media more broadly. X has obviously become a huge part of that world, and at this point I just don’t feel it offers me much, especially when I don’t currently have a clear path in mind for what I’m doing next. If you want to stay in touch with me, plenty of people have my WhatsApp, so you’re more than welcome to shoot me a message. If you want to network with me, share ideas, discuss opportunities or just have a chat, you can also get in touch with me through LinkedIn. It’s been a pleasure being on here, or at least most of the time. I’m sure I’ll be back at some point if things change, but until then, take care everyone.

I’ve decided I’m going to be stepping away from X. Further to my post the other day about leaving journalism, I’ve been thinking about what I want to do going forward, and I just don’t see much purpose in being on here at the moment. I may come back to X in the future, particularly if I decide to stay within the political field, take on a role within politics, or find myself in a position where I feel X requires my attention. But until then, I’m going to be leaving it. I think stepping away from X also connects with my issues with the media more broadly. X has obviously become a huge part of that world, and at this point I just don’t feel it offers me much, especially when I don’t currently have a clear path in mind for what I’m doing next. If you want to stay in touch with me, plenty of people have my WhatsApp, so you’re more than welcome to shoot me a message. If you want to network with me, share ideas, discuss opportunities or just have a chat, you can also get in touch with me through LinkedIn. It’s been a pleasure being on here, or at least most of the time. I’m sure I’ll be back at some point if things change, but until then, take care everyone.

Jack Roworth

60,549 次观看 • 25 天前

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Since timezones and such... I'm gonna say it now HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! And now, here's a video and a wall of text... ⬇️ Thanks to ALL OF YOU... It's been one of the best years in my life, not only I acomplished a lot of dreams, but also met wonderful people. I cannot believe how far I got, but that wouldn't have been possible without all your support... Went to Japan and even saw the snow for the first time in my life at the same time while visiting lot of MH places! I went to Gamescom and could both the MH directors and part of the community Went to Japan a SECOND time but invited for a Monster Hunter game, and got to met another MH director! I went from 2k followers to almost 7k followers, which for me, it's AMAZING and cannot thank you all enough, seriously Whenever I felt down, I just had to go an read all your replies, your DM's, the amount of love and laughs you all gave me cannot be quantified, you might underestimate my words but trust me, it helped me so much and I felt so close to a lot of the people The more I think of it, the more happy I am... Monster Hunter is a big part of my life and will always be! Hope you all can keep trusting me and my content, and I cannot imagine 2025 being better but sure hope so! I tried to put as much names on the video as I could, but there's a point one has to stop because otherwise I would end up with 20hours video haha If your name is not there, it's probably that reason alone There's also a possibility the auto-corrector rewrote some name wrong and I didn't notice it, sorry again! Thanks if you have read until here and even more, if you have watched the video. Thanks for everything, I'm almost crying just writting down this🥺

Shincry

59,770 次观看 • 1 年前

As a Twitch streamer, do you struggle with keeping your viewership up when on a BRB or Starting Soon screen? Clip reels are a perfect, fun way to keep attention. And they showcase your content. But they're a LOT of work to maintain. Well.. at least they were😎 What if you could have a simple browser source that automatically played an always-fresh clip reel? What if you could have a simple browser source that would show the clip reel of your last stream, like a "Previously On..." TV show intro? Now you can!! When you use the Highlight Hunter by FrostyTools, you find the best moments from your VOD, automatically. You can already easily turn them into Twitch clips, or download the snippets to edit for a perfect short-form video, or download entire montages of VODs to share with your community. BUT NOW, you can just grab one of two simple browser source links, to pop into your OBS or Meld Studio One of them will roll all your favorited snippets in random order, like a shuffling playlist of your best highlights. Great for BRB screens, or any time you want to entertain with your best moments. The other will play the linear montage of your latest VOD, for a "Previously On..." experience that helps catch viewers up if they missed it or forgot. Great for Starting Soon screens to seamlessly tie the streams together (and pairs great with our Showstarter chatbot feature 😉). The best part? As you continue to use the Highlight Hunter, these update automatically! New favorite snippets since last stream? They're in the reel already! Ran the Highlight Hunter on your latest VOD? Its montage will automatically play on your 'Previously On..' browser source when you start stream up next time. This is a SUPER powerful update; check it out ASAP!

As a Twitch streamer, do you struggle with keeping your viewership up when on a BRB or Starting Soon screen? Clip reels are a perfect, fun way to keep attention. And they showcase your content. But they're a LOT of work to maintain. Well.. at least they were😎 What if you could have a simple browser source that automatically played an always-fresh clip reel? What if you could have a simple browser source that would show the clip reel of your last stream, like a "Previously On..." TV show intro? Now you can!! When you use the Highlight Hunter by FrostyTools, you find the best moments from your VOD, automatically. You can already easily turn them into Twitch clips, or download the snippets to edit for a perfect short-form video, or download entire montages of VODs to share with your community. BUT NOW, you can just grab one of two simple browser source links, to pop into your OBS or Meld Studio One of them will roll all your favorited snippets in random order, like a shuffling playlist of your best highlights. Great for BRB screens, or any time you want to entertain with your best moments. The other will play the linear montage of your latest VOD, for a "Previously On..." experience that helps catch viewers up if they missed it or forgot. Great for Starting Soon screens to seamlessly tie the streams together (and pairs great with our Showstarter chatbot feature 😉). The best part? As you continue to use the Highlight Hunter, these update automatically! New favorite snippets since last stream? They're in the reel already! Ran the Highlight Hunter on your latest VOD? Its montage will automatically play on your 'Previously On..' browser source when you start stream up next time. This is a SUPER powerful update; check it out ASAP!

Ken aka Frosty

103,140 次观看 • 11 个月前

The NYT interview with Taylor Swift on her songwriting process is so good. Here she explains her approach to choruses and bridges: “The importance for me of a bridge is it just feels like we’re painting a picture. We’re setting a scene. We have this opportunity as a songwriter to tell an entire story. Or an entire movie. Or a very detailed description of one scene in a movie. Or a very nuanced dynamic between people or a complicated emotion. And we have only so long to do this. I’ve written some really long songs in my life. But, for the most part, they’re between 3.5 to 4 minutes. You can start painting the picture in the verse. You can get to the heart of it at the chorus. But then the bridge can be where you zoom back, you walk 20 feet back, and you see what this entire painting was supposed to be. You’ve seen brushstrokes. You’ve seen the color tones. But the bridge can be when you step back and you feel everything that that piece of art was supposed to make you feel. That’s just how I feel about bridges. I came up as a songwriter in Nashville, where structure is a huge part of how you effectively tell a story, right? You go verse - chorus - second verse - chorus - bridge - chorus. Maybe you repeat that first verse if you want to. If you want to pull at some heartstrings. If it makes sense. Now, that’s something that I absolutely subscribe to…that structure is important. But I think that when you write enough songs — at least in my case — the intuitive part of your songwriting brain can kind of create a new structure that’s not as classically what you’ve been taught. Jack Antonoff is a collaborator of mine and one of my best friends. We established this thing that we love to do and we call it the rant bridge. I could point to examples like, ‘Out of the Woods’, ‘Is It Over Now?’ or ‘Cruel Summer’. And oftentimes we love these rant bridges, where it’s basically like stream of consciousness. Endless pouring-out of emotion. Intrusive thoughts, blended with metaphor with discussion with shouting. You want this rant bridge to feel the most intense of what that feeling is…that you’re trying to, establish over the course of the song and you want it to kind of be a crescendo.” *** Full interview here:

The NYT interview with Taylor Swift on her songwriting process is so good. Here she explains her approach to choruses and bridges: “The importance for me of a bridge is it just feels like we’re painting a picture. We’re setting a scene. We have this opportunity as a songwriter to tell an entire story. Or an entire movie. Or a very detailed description of one scene in a movie. Or a very nuanced dynamic between people or a complicated emotion. And we have only so long to do this. I’ve written some really long songs in my life. But, for the most part, they’re between 3.5 to 4 minutes. You can start painting the picture in the verse. You can get to the heart of it at the chorus. But then the bridge can be where you zoom back, you walk 20 feet back, and you see what this entire painting was supposed to be. You’ve seen brushstrokes. You’ve seen the color tones. But the bridge can be when you step back and you feel everything that that piece of art was supposed to make you feel. That’s just how I feel about bridges. I came up as a songwriter in Nashville, where structure is a huge part of how you effectively tell a story, right? You go verse - chorus - second verse - chorus - bridge - chorus. Maybe you repeat that first verse if you want to. If you want to pull at some heartstrings. If it makes sense. Now, that’s something that I absolutely subscribe to…that structure is important. But I think that when you write enough songs — at least in my case — the intuitive part of your songwriting brain can kind of create a new structure that’s not as classically what you’ve been taught. Jack Antonoff is a collaborator of mine and one of my best friends. We established this thing that we love to do and we call it the rant bridge. I could point to examples like, ‘Out of the Woods’, ‘Is It Over Now?’ or ‘Cruel Summer’. And oftentimes we love these rant bridges, where it’s basically like stream of consciousness. Endless pouring-out of emotion. Intrusive thoughts, blended with metaphor with discussion with shouting. You want this rant bridge to feel the most intense of what that feeling is…that you’re trying to, establish over the course of the song and you want it to kind of be a crescendo.” *** Full interview here:

Trung Phan

91,687 次观看 • 4 个月前

Q: How will I know when it’s the right time to go full-time on a startup idea? Tony Fadell is the co-creator of the iPod, iPhone, and Nest. As he puts it in the clip below: “Great ideas chase you.” He continues: “In this world, there are so many people who have more ideas than they have time to implement… I used to be like that. But the best ideas are the ones that you can really focus on… Now I try to run away from a great idea. And then it stalks me. It hunts you down because you’re like: ‘Ah, that’s going to have this problem, I’m going to put it aside.’ And then a few days later, you’re like: ‘Actually I think I know how to solve that problem.’ At some point it just becomes this black hole that sucks you in and you can’t think about anything else but this.” Mark Zuckerberg gave similar advice in a previous Startup Archive answer: “I always think the most important thing entrepreneurs should do is pick something they care about and work on it, but don’t actually commit to turning it into a company until it’s working. If you look at the data of the very best companies, I think a tremendous percentage of them have been built that way and not from people who decided upfront that they wanted to start a company because you just get locked into a local maxima a lot of the time.” Let great ideas chase you and don’t turn it into a company until it’s working. There’s almost always a ton of work you you can do upfront to de-risk an idea before turning it into a company. And perhaps just as important: you want to make sure you’re still excited about the idea after a few months and the novelty has worn off—it should be all you can think about. Companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work and a 2-3 year project if they fail. It’s worth it to be patient before jumping in with two feet.

Q: How will I know when it’s the right time to go full-time on a startup idea? Tony Fadell is the co-creator of the iPod, iPhone, and Nest. As he puts it in the clip below: “Great ideas chase you.” He continues: “In this world, there are so many people who have more ideas than they have time to implement… I used to be like that. But the best ideas are the ones that you can really focus on… Now I try to run away from a great idea. And then it stalks me. It hunts you down because you’re like: ‘Ah, that’s going to have this problem, I’m going to put it aside.’ And then a few days later, you’re like: ‘Actually I think I know how to solve that problem.’ At some point it just becomes this black hole that sucks you in and you can’t think about anything else but this.” Mark Zuckerberg gave similar advice in a previous Startup Archive answer: “I always think the most important thing entrepreneurs should do is pick something they care about and work on it, but don’t actually commit to turning it into a company until it’s working. If you look at the data of the very best companies, I think a tremendous percentage of them have been built that way and not from people who decided upfront that they wanted to start a company because you just get locked into a local maxima a lot of the time.” Let great ideas chase you and don’t turn it into a company until it’s working. There’s almost always a ton of work you you can do upfront to de-risk an idea before turning it into a company. And perhaps just as important: you want to make sure you’re still excited about the idea after a few months and the novelty has worn off—it should be all you can think about. Companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work and a 2-3 year project if they fail. It’s worth it to be patient before jumping in with two feet.

Michael McGuiness

62,662 次观看 • 2 年前

I gave Claude Opus 5 full access to my laptop and turned on bypass permission mode. Asked him tuild me a Polymarket arbitrage bot. With no complicated strategy. Just this: Only open a trade when YES + NO < $1. I put $100 into the account and let it run. 2 hours: +$78.40 5 hours: +$479 Current balance: $1,791.30 in just 24 hours. Total Claude usage: roughly 7.5M tokens. But here's the part I find interesting: The bot doesn't care if Bitcoin goes up or down. It cares when the market prices both outcomes incorrectly. A BTC Up/Down market has two contracts: YES or NO At settlement, exactly one pays $1. The other pays $0. So buying both should cost $1. But during fast market moves, the two orderbooks can temporarily drift apart. For example: YES = $0.48, NO = $0.49 Combined = $0.97 The bot buys both. You're paying 97 cents for a position that settles to $1. That's a 3-cent gross spread without needing to predict BTC direction. And this isn't some complicated quant strategy. It's basic arbitrage. The difficult part is capturing it. These gaps can disappear almost instantly. A few cents of edge can also disappear after fees, slippage, or a bad fill. So the bot doesn't blindly buy every time the equation looks good. It checks the available liquidity, estimates the actual executable price, accounts for costs, and only fires when the remaining edge is large enough. It also has to handle the ugly scenario: One leg fills. The other doesn't. That's where a theoretical arbitrage can turn into a very real directional position. This is why I care much more about execution than adding another indicator. A human can find one opportunity. A bot can monitor hundreds of markets continuously. A human needs to click. The bot can react immediately. The strategy itself is almost boring. That's exactly why I like it. The interesting part is turning a simple mathematical rule into software that can actually execute it reliably. I shared the exact build process and prompts in my last article. Leaving it below if you want to build your own. The future of trading might just be better execution. Think bout that...

I gave Claude Opus 5 full access to my laptop and turned on bypass permission mode. Asked him tuild me a Polymarket arbitrage bot. With no complicated strategy. Just this: Only open a trade when YES + NO < $1. I put $100 into the account and let it run. 2 hours: +$78.40 5 hours: +$479 Current balance: $1,791.30 in just 24 hours. Total Claude usage: roughly 7.5M tokens. But here's the part I find interesting: The bot doesn't care if Bitcoin goes up or down. It cares when the market prices both outcomes incorrectly. A BTC Up/Down market has two contracts: YES or NO At settlement, exactly one pays $1. The other pays $0. So buying both should cost $1. But during fast market moves, the two orderbooks can temporarily drift apart. For example: YES = $0.48, NO = $0.49 Combined = $0.97 The bot buys both. You're paying 97 cents for a position that settles to $1. That's a 3-cent gross spread without needing to predict BTC direction. And this isn't some complicated quant strategy. It's basic arbitrage. The difficult part is capturing it. These gaps can disappear almost instantly. A few cents of edge can also disappear after fees, slippage, or a bad fill. So the bot doesn't blindly buy every time the equation looks good. It checks the available liquidity, estimates the actual executable price, accounts for costs, and only fires when the remaining edge is large enough. It also has to handle the ugly scenario: One leg fills. The other doesn't. That's where a theoretical arbitrage can turn into a very real directional position. This is why I care much more about execution than adding another indicator. A human can find one opportunity. A bot can monitor hundreds of markets continuously. A human needs to click. The bot can react immediately. The strategy itself is almost boring. That's exactly why I like it. The interesting part is turning a simple mathematical rule into software that can actually execute it reliably. I shared the exact build process and prompts in my last article. Leaving it below if you want to build your own. The future of trading might just be better execution. Think bout that...

Oracle Boar

22,315 次观看 • 1 个月前

#F1Testing || Lewis Hamilton was asked if this was the most optimistic he’s felt at this stage in the last 5 years. “Don’t remember the last 5 years but maybe yeah. I mean, I think I always try to enter into a season with confidence. But, of course, you’re face with all sorts of different challenges along the way. I think, this is definitely, for me, obviously, gone through quite a bit, and you know for me, left everything, all of last years behind me. I’ve spent a lot of time rebuilding this winter, refocusing, really getting into my body and my mind to a much better place. Obviously I’ve got a bit of a cold right now..” “But in general, just making sure that I’m able to arrive feeling better and honestly I genuinely feel, personally, in the best place that I’ve been in a long long time. With rearranging things within my team and then…” “Yeah for the car, I think we started off quite well so far. And it’s an exciting time with this new generation of car as well because it’s all brand new, we’re all trying to figure it out on the go. And as last year, we were locked into a car that, ultimately I inherited. This [SF-26] is a car that I’ve been able to be a part of developing on the simulator for the last 8-10 months and so like a bit of my DNA is within it so I’m more connected to this one for sure.”

sin ⁴⁴

89,926 次观看 • 7 个月前

wen Dookey Dash? [long, sorry] some updates: The competitive part of Dookey Dash is pretty well cooked and many of you have gotten a chance to playtest the game in some form, either at NFT Paris, in Dubai at Token2049, or as part of our gaming council. THANK YOU for being part of testing and dealing with bugs as we QA the shit out of the game. A not-final build of the game is currently live in the Philippines and Australia for testing. This version is missing a ton of features we’ve been busy building with Faraway, as well as many completed parts of the game that we can’t push live until Season 1 begins. What are we adding? A bunch of things to make the game more casual-friendly. Stuff like: -NEW MAPS: More to explore than just the same 'ol sewer -ARCADE MODE: A new objective-based game mode, with clear conditions for progressing (like "dash through five walls to win," etc). Arcade mode is broken up into levels, and achieving goals gets you progress on the map and onto the next stage. Basically, think Candy Crush. -CHAMPIONSHIP MODE: This is the good old leaderboard-based DDU for hardcore players. -WEEKLY TOURNAMENTS: Compete in weekly tournaments to win boxes featuring new characters, vehicles, banners, etc. Opening up boxes will grant you Dookey Points, which you can spend to spin for a chance at a Golden Plunger – you’ll need a Golden Plunger in order to compete in the $1m esports championship at the end of the season. -DAILY QUESTS: Rotating set of quests with a range of possible rewards It’s a LOT of new upgrades to Dookey Dash, all with the aim of making the game fun for everyone and not just twitchy nerds with fast reflexes. Looking forward to getting my mom to play. All that said, I don’t want to push this sucker live until I feel like we’ve got the best game possible. Good news is, all the new features will be out of dev later this month, and we’ll be able to give an update on launch date then. Some very work-in-progress screenshots and vids here. [last tweet]

wen Dookey Dash? [long, sorry] some updates: The competitive part of Dookey Dash is pretty well cooked and many of you have gotten a chance to playtest the game in some form, either at NFT Paris, in Dubai at Token2049, or as part of our gaming council. THANK YOU for being part of testing and dealing with bugs as we QA the shit out of the game. A not-final build of the game is currently live in the Philippines and Australia for testing. This version is missing a ton of features we’ve been busy building with Faraway, as well as many completed parts of the game that we can’t push live until Season 1 begins. What are we adding? A bunch of things to make the game more casual-friendly. Stuff like: -NEW MAPS: More to explore than just the same 'ol sewer -ARCADE MODE: A new objective-based game mode, with clear conditions for progressing (like "dash through five walls to win," etc). Arcade mode is broken up into levels, and achieving goals gets you progress on the map and onto the next stage. Basically, think Candy Crush. -CHAMPIONSHIP MODE: This is the good old leaderboard-based DDU for hardcore players. -WEEKLY TOURNAMENTS: Compete in weekly tournaments to win boxes featuring new characters, vehicles, banners, etc. Opening up boxes will grant you Dookey Points, which you can spend to spin for a chance at a Golden Plunger – you’ll need a Golden Plunger in order to compete in the $1m esports championship at the end of the season. -DAILY QUESTS: Rotating set of quests with a range of possible rewards It’s a LOT of new upgrades to Dookey Dash, all with the aim of making the game fun for everyone and not just twitchy nerds with fast reflexes. Looking forward to getting my mom to play. All that said, I don’t want to push this sucker live until I feel like we’ve got the best game possible. Good news is, all the new features will be out of dev later this month, and we’ll be able to give an update on launch date then. Some very work-in-progress screenshots and vids here. [last tweet]

Garga.eth (Greg Solano)

68,269 次观看 • 2 年前

Greg Brockman on the next year at OpenAI and what he spends his time thinking about: "The business is a huge area that we're not done yet with really up-leveling every part of execution. But I also think we are moving into a new phase of AI development." "We call this the AGI era. And I think that that is something that you can debate. Is it this model, previous model, next model? It doesn't matter." "The point is that we are in a new phase where safety, security, alignment, really thinking about these things, not just at deployment time, but all the way back at development time, evaluation." "It's objective. This is critical. It must happen. This is core to our mission." "A lot of what I spend my time thinking about is making sure, do we have all the right processes? Are we talking about the right things? Do we have plans that really, at an operational level, at a practical level, lead us to... the kinds of safety guarantees that we view as core to our mission?" "The theme of OpenAI, certainly for the past five years, has been deeper co-design, deeper intertwining across these functions that are maybe on the surface very disparate. All the way from go to market to long-term research to chip design." "The areas that I will focus on will be dictated by the areas that most need that intertwining." Greg Brockman Erik Torenberg

Greg Brockman on the next year at OpenAI and what he spends his time thinking about: "The business is a huge area that we're not done yet with really up-leveling every part of execution. But I also think we are moving into a new phase of AI development." "We call this the AGI era. And I think that that is something that you can debate. Is it this model, previous model, next model? It doesn't matter." "The point is that we are in a new phase where safety, security, alignment, really thinking about these things, not just at deployment time, but all the way back at development time, evaluation." "It's objective. This is critical. It must happen. This is core to our mission." "A lot of what I spend my time thinking about is making sure, do we have all the right processes? Are we talking about the right things? Do we have plans that really, at an operational level, at a practical level, lead us to... the kinds of safety guarantees that we view as core to our mission?" "The theme of OpenAI, certainly for the past five years, has been deeper co-design, deeper intertwining across these functions that are maybe on the surface very disparate. All the way from go to market to long-term research to chip design." "The areas that I will focus on will be dictated by the areas that most need that intertwining." Greg Brockman Erik Torenberg

a16z

35,751 次观看 • 20 天前

If you could only learn one thing that will be relevant for the next 10-20 years, focus on learning how to deal with data. The future is not about faster hardware, smarter algorithms, or better ideas. The future is about DATA, and those who know how to deal with it will stay relevant much longer than anyone else. I recorded a video to show you how easy it is to get started. In the video, I'm using Kestra. For a long time, I was a fan of AirFlow. Then, I moved to AWS Step Functions. Today, I only use Kestra. Kestra is open-source (repo link below) and kind enough to sponsor my work. The video will show you how easy it is to do the following: 1. Run Kestra locally (literally, one command) 2. Build a simple flow 3. Run Python scripts as part of your flow 4. Connect to HuggingFace models If you have never built a data pipeline, open Kestra's Quick Start Guide and follow their examples. (I think it will take you one weekend to feel comfortable with the application and build the courage you need to get into more serious work.)

If you could only learn one thing that will be relevant for the next 10-20 years, focus on learning how to deal with data. The future is not about faster hardware, smarter algorithms, or better ideas. The future is about DATA, and those who know how to deal with it will stay relevant much longer than anyone else. I recorded a video to show you how easy it is to get started. In the video, I'm using Kestra. For a long time, I was a fan of AirFlow. Then, I moved to AWS Step Functions. Today, I only use Kestra. Kestra is open-source (repo link below) and kind enough to sponsor my work. The video will show you how easy it is to do the following: 1. Run Kestra locally (literally, one command) 2. Build a simple flow 3. Run Python scripts as part of your flow 4. Connect to HuggingFace models If you have never built a data pipeline, open Kestra's Quick Start Guide and follow their examples. (I think it will take you one weekend to feel comfortable with the application and build the courage you need to get into more serious work.)

Santiago

51,100 次观看 • 1 年前

A closer look on the GSAP powered animations in Webflow. Just from my perspective. In short, it’s way more powerful than I first thought. The more I use it, the more I like it. Of course, there are some parts missing. But it's the first version. There's still a lot to come. For example, custom ease would already make a huge difference. Breakpoints. Maybe a way to add custom functions as sometimes you need to calculate stuff in JavaScript to get complex animations. The biggest part for me is that you can just build the animation inside a timeline. This makes it so much easier than writing it as code. You can fine tune it so much more. When there would be a way to export the tween as code to add some more functionality would be awesome. You can also add custom classes with the timeline, which can then be used in custom CSS to add more functionality. With a bit of custom code you can also use breakpoints for your animations. By using the custom event the animation can be used in custom code which can also be pretty powerful. Didn’t test it so much yet, but would be cool if you could just take the event and use for example the onComplete() from GSAP or other stuff. For example. let mm = gsap.matchMedia(); const module = Webflow.require("ix3"); module.ready().then(() => { mm.add( { isMobile: "(max-width: 992px)", }, (context) => { let { isMobile } = context.conditions; if (isMobile) { module.emit("Mobile Animation"); } } ); }); "Mobile Animation" is the name of your custom event. I hope that part will get more powerful. Something I miss on the timeline is that when you select more actions you can just drag all actions. It would be cool if you could move it frame by frame with the arrow keys, like in Jitter for example. Or just write a specific point like when you have one selected. For now I would further write the code myself, but I’m excited to see where it’s going. Maybe there will be a time where you could animate most parts inside Webflow 🙂 Can’t wait for the next GSAP update!

A closer look on the GSAP powered animations in Webflow. Just from my perspective. In short, it’s way more powerful than I first thought. The more I use it, the more I like it. Of course, there are some parts missing. But it's the first version. There's still a lot to come. For example, custom ease would already make a huge difference. Breakpoints. Maybe a way to add custom functions as sometimes you need to calculate stuff in JavaScript to get complex animations. The biggest part for me is that you can just build the animation inside a timeline. This makes it so much easier than writing it as code. You can fine tune it so much more. When there would be a way to export the tween as code to add some more functionality would be awesome. You can also add custom classes with the timeline, which can then be used in custom CSS to add more functionality. With a bit of custom code you can also use breakpoints for your animations. By using the custom event the animation can be used in custom code which can also be pretty powerful. Didn’t test it so much yet, but would be cool if you could just take the event and use for example the onComplete() from GSAP or other stuff. For example. let mm = gsap.matchMedia(); const module = Webflow.require("ix3"); module.ready().then(() => { mm.add( { isMobile: "(max-width: 992px)", }, (context) => { let { isMobile } = context.conditions; if (isMobile) { module.emit("Mobile Animation"); } } ); }); "Mobile Animation" is the name of your custom event. I hope that part will get more powerful. Something I miss on the timeline is that when you select more actions you can just drag all actions. It would be cool if you could move it frame by frame with the arrow keys, like in Jitter for example. Or just write a specific point like when you have one selected. For now I would further write the code myself, but I’m excited to see where it’s going. Maybe there will be a time where you could animate most parts inside Webflow 🙂 Can’t wait for the next GSAP update!

Eduard Bodak

12,590 次观看 • 1 年前