Video yükleniyor...

Video Yüklenemedi

Ana Sayfaya Dön

🇺🇸🇮🇷 KHARG ISLAND: THE “QUICK WIN” THAT COULD TRAP AMERICA IN ANOTHER FOREVER WAR Suddenly, a small speck in the Persian Gulf has been rebranded as the key to victory. Take it, we’re told, and Iran folds. Take it, and the war tilts decisively in Washington’s favor. It sounds...

229,421 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

0 Yorum

Yorum bulunmuyor

Orijinal gönderinin yorumları burada görünecek

Benzer Videolar

🎭 Kharg: When Washington Confuses Strategy with Televised Sacrifice By Brainless Partisans 🏴‍☠️☢️☣️🪆 One must give Lindsey Graham credit for his admirable consistency: every international crisis, in his words, becomes a movie set where American soldiers serve as sacrificial extras for a script hastily written between TV appearances. “If you control Kharg, you control the Iranian economy. And if we have to go back there, that would be a good starting point.” A “good starting point.” The phrasing is almost clinical. Cold. Disembodied. As if we were talking about a map exercise, not an amphibious operation in one of the most militarized maritime areas in the world. Yes, the island of Kharg is Iran’s oil lifeline: the majority of its crude exports pass through there, making it an obvious economic target. But that is precisely what makes the idea of a military takeover as absurd as it is indecent. Kharg is not a remote, forgotten island, vulnerable to the first show of force that comes along. It is a strategic chokepoint, exposed but heavily guarded, located in the immediate vicinity of Iran’s naval, air, and ballistic capabilities in the Gulf. A strip of land with no real defensive depth: you don’t land there to entrench yourself; you land there to get pinned down. In other words, Graham is not describing a strategy. He is describing an obituary in the making. The most ironic thing is that even U.S. military decision-makers generally avoid this kind of simplistic rhetoric. The strikes discussed around Kharg have so far carefully distinguished between military targets and energy infrastructure, a sign that the Pentagon is still weighing the consequences of a full-scale escalation. But for Graham, war remains a Pavlovian reflex. An island? We take it. An oil terminal? We neutralize it. An economy? We “control” it. As if recent history had never shown that occupying a strategic point never amounts to controlling a country, much less breaking its political will. The senator is peddling the macho illusion of a simple, clean, telegenic victory. A sort of fantasy of remote command where planting the flag on Kharg would be enough to bring Tehran to its knees. In reality, what he is proposing is to turn American soldiers into cannon fodder for a slogan. For once the troops have landed, where will they take cover? Under what terrain? Under what protection against drones, coastal missiles, naval strikes, and ballistic saturation? Nowhere. Kharg would become less of a bridgehead and more of a perfect target. And this is where satire meets tragedy: certain political leaders speak of human lives as if they were merely a cost of communication. An island to be seized to send a message. A sacrifice to “demonstrate American resolve.” An operation designed primarily for its media impact. War, in Graham’s view, is no longer a matter of strategy. It is a staged performance. A camera, a flag, a martial phrase. And, off-screen, the coffins. That is the true “starting point”: not a victory, but a public relations operation whose price would be paid by those who will never comment on the war from an air-conditioned studio.

Brainless Partisans 🏴‍☠️☢️☣️🪆

11,511 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇮🇷 Iran figured out you don’t need to physically close a strait to shut it down — you just need the insurance underwriters in Lloyd’s of London to believe you might and provide enough of a demonstration. Fear is the main weapon, more than the mines, fast boats or missile volleys. And Iran controls the geography that makes that fear rational. The two shipping lanes at Hormuz are each exactly 2 miles wide the width of Manhattan, flanked on the north by Iran’s rugged coastline and a string of fortified islands: Qeshm, Larak, Hormuz, and the disputed Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb. Seven of the strait’s eight major islands are Iranian. They're unsinkable missile platforms and bases parked directly over the only navigable corridor on earth that handles 20% of global oil. Flight time for a sea-skimming cruise missile from Qeshm to a loaded supertanker: under two minutes. Which is why the Kharg Island plan is a suicidal fantasy. Taking Kharg even if you could do it, does nothing to the strait. Iran doesn’t need Kharg to control Hormuz. It needs Qeshm, Larak, Abu Musa, the coastal batteries, the tunnel networks, the mine stockpiles, and 1,000km of rugged northern shoreline that no amphibious force has a chance of taking. You’d take the island under heavy cost, hold it under constant bombardment, watch the strait stay closed, and find yourself needing to take the next island. Then a coastal perimeter and good luck trying. That’s not a limited Kharg operation. That’s the beginning of a land war and Iran has been waiting 45 years for someone to be stupid enough to start it.

THE ISLANDER

23,496 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Kharg Island is widely known among Iranians as the “forbidden island.” Behind its modern geoeconomic significance lies an ancient history, from early human settlements dating back more than 4,000 years to occupation by various empires that understood its strategic maritime importance as a trading post.  The small coral outcrop sits around 25 kilometers off the coast of Iran. Up to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass through the terminal there, which is able to load 10 supertankers at once. Access is restricted and the island is guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The island became Iran’s dominant export port for two reasons. First, it could be connected by pipeline to the major oil fields in south-western Iran. Second, its deep water location made it one of the only places on Iran’s western coast that could accommodate supertankers.  In 1956 work began to build oil reservoirs on Kharg. In the 1960s, under the Shah, the island was developed into an oil terminal in partnership with US company Amoco. By around 1975, there were three major oil terminals. Amoco’s property was expropriated after the Iranian Revolution in 1979.  The island was particularly important for French energy giant Total. Over time it became such a priority target during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s that its destruction would have economically crippled Iran. The war destroyed most of the facilities on the island, and after it ended, Iran made it a priority to rebuild them. Since then, Kharg Island has become one of Iran’s best defended sites.  The economic artery No other major oil-producing country is so reliant on just one facility. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, and massive producers elsewhere such as Russia, Mexico and Venezuela, do not concentrate almost all their export capacity in a single location.  About half of the nation’s $50 billion oil industry is controlled by the Revolutionary Guard.  Targeting Kharg would deprive the regime of a key funding source for controlling the population. “If they can’t sell their own oil, they can’t make payroll,” as one analyst put it.  As the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran entered its third week, Kharg remained unscathed. That restraint was deliberate. Crippling Iran’s entire oil industry for months, if not years, would shatter the already fragile confidence in financial markets that Trump can achieve his vague war aims without long-term disruption to the global economy.  Some analysts predict that oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel if Kharg is hit. Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused Brent crude to rise above $100 for four months, contributing to roughly 9% inflation at the time.  Analysts interpreting satellite imagery noted that Iran apparently expected Kharg to become a target and had started reducing the amount of oil in storage there since early February. By 7 March, only nine of the oil tanks were estimated to be full, compared to 27 in mid-January.  In the days prior to the outbreak of war, Iran ramped up exports from Kharg to near-record levels. Brent crude futures climbed to $103 a barrel on the first Monday of the conflict, their highest level since mid-2022.  Experts note that a third option may be on the table: sabotage and cyberattacks affecting the oil infrastructure on the island, which “would certainly choke the Iranian economy without having to engage militarily.”  The island is a pressure point without a clean trigger. Whoever controls the decision to strike it controls the price of petrol in every country on earth. That is precisely why it still stands. Gandalv Gandalv

Gandalv

83,398 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce