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KianV Stealth Linux RISC-V SoC. First bring-up with a 5-stage pipeline CPU and GShare branch prediction. Running at 25 MHz for now during bring-up, but already timing clean at 50 MHz. Ported my old SoC parts like SDRAM controller and UART to the new pipeline core. Caches are still...

39,786 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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When Boston Construction Starts Cracking The Cycle Is Already Late I’m in the Boston area and I keep hearing the same thing from people working directly in construction. Work is slowing, layoffs are beginning, and the pipeline ahead looks noticeably weaker. One person with a very good view of upcoming projects told me conditions are already becoming recessionary. That is anecdotal, but it lines up with the broader data. Boston’s office and lab markets remain heavily oversupplied, many completed buildings are struggling to find tenants, and the pipeline for new construction is deteriorating. Why Boston Matters Construction does not turn all at once. Permits, financing, leasing and project approvals usually weaken first. Employment responds later because contractors continue finishing projects approved years earlier and tend to hold onto skilled workers until they are certain the slowdown is lasting. That mattered during the last housing downturn. National construction employment peaked in 2006, well before total U.S. employment rolled over. The earliest cracks appeared in highly speculative housing markets such as Riverside, Phoenix, Las Vegas and parts of Florida. Boston reacted later. Local construction employment remained relatively resilient through 2007 and much of 2008 before falling much harder in 2009 and 2010. Unemployment followed a similar pattern, worsening materially after the broader national contraction was already underway. That makes Boston useful today because it has historically behaved more like a lagging confirmation market than an early warning market. The sequence is appearing again Several of the markets that weakened first during the last housing cycle are showing construction stress again. Riverside has suffered some of the largest construction job losses in the country. Miami has weakened. Tampa has been roughly flat. Phoenix has cooled considerably even where payrolls remain stable. Las Vegas has held up better partly because data center and infrastructure construction are offsetting housing weakness. The pattern is not identical to 2006, but the direction is increasingly difficult to ignore. Now weakness is reaching slower moving markets like Boston. Boston permitted only 432 housing units in Q1 2026, down from 549 one year earlier and 642 two years earlier. That is a 21.3% decline in one year and 32.7% over two years. A large share of those permits came from a single project, meaning the underlying pipeline was even thinner than the headline suggests. Permits are tomorrow’s construction employment. Workers can stay busy for months finishing old projects while new work quietly disappears. Once those backlogs are exhausted, layoffs can accelerate quickly. Where This Puts Us In The Cycle The last national construction employment trough came in 2011. That places 2026 roughly 15 years into the current expansion. The 18 year housing cycle is not a precise clock, but it places us deep into a mature cycle where financing becomes harder, speculative development slows, completed buildings struggle for tenants and labor eventually follows the shrinking pipeline. This does not automatically mean another 2008. But the sequence matters. The leading housing markets weakened first. Boston permits and commercial leasing are now deteriorating. People working directly in construction are reporting fewer projects and early layoffs. Official employment remains relatively resilient because employment is one of the last indicators to turn. Boston is moving from pipeline deterioration into labor market confirmation. If this continues, the next 6 to 18 months likely bring fewer projects, more subcontractor stress, broader layoffs and deeper commercial real estate weakness. When a backlog heavy market like Boston starts confirming what the early cycle markets have already been signaling, it suggests the economy is firmly late cycle and becoming increasingly vulnerable to a broader contraction.

EndGame Macro

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Micron is one of the most UNDERVALUED stocks in the entire AI trade right now and everyone should be buying at these prices. (Save this). Jensen laid out the situation in one sentence, the supply chain is lined up, the HBM is lined up with the Grace Blackwell GPUs, the only problem is that demand is much greater than the overall capacity of the world. And Michael Dell said it before Jensen even finished that memory is the single biggest supply constraint in the entire AI buildout right now. Every HBM chip that Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce consumes three times the silicon wafer area of standard DRAM. Nvidia's Rubin GPU requires 288GB of HBM per chip, a 260% increase over the H100 in just two generations. Every major hyperscaler has locked up contracts through 2026, and Micron has said publicly it can only fulfill about two-thirds of medium-term demand for some customers. And it's HBM production is sold out entirely for 2026 and HBM4 is also already sold out. The numbers tell the story, DDR4 spot prices surged roughly 15x in eight months. DRAM contract prices rose 90-95% in a single quarter, TrendForce called it "essentially unprecedented" in the history of the memory market. Micron has rallied roughly 68% year to date in 2026, and yet it still trades at a P/E of 37.6x against an industry average of 75.3x. The shortage does not resolve until new fabs come online, Micron's new factories are not producing until 2027 and 2028 at the earliest, and the memory shortage is forecast to run until at least 2027. Milk Road Pro has been covering the HBM memory trade as a core AI infrastructure thesis before it became a consensus Wall Street call and our Pro members are already up massively in $MU. Come join us at the link in bio/below to see our full portfolio and the names we're watching before the rest of the market catches on.

Milk Road AI

146,867 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Micron is going to $4,000 and here is why (Save this). For 25 years, DRAM prices did one thing, they went down. Memory makers overbuilt, supply overwhelmed demand, buyers had all the negotiating leverage and that commodity trap crushed memory stocks every single cycle. What you are watching right now is a complete structural break from that 25 year trend. DRAM contract prices are up 700% year over year and the reason is AI and it is not going away. HBM3 was 12 layers, HBM4 in production and shipping now to Nvidia's latest GPUs is 16 layers. Each generation consumes significantly more wafer to produce than the last, meaning supply structurally tightens as the technology advances. Memory was 8% of hyperscaler capex in 2023 but is 35% in 2026 and is projected to hit 48% in 2027. Nearly half of everything Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta spend on infrastructure will go to memory by next year. Going from the GB300 to the Vera Rubin 200 generation, GPU cost went up 57% while memory cost went up 435%. There are three companies on earth that can make DRAM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are converting capacity to HBM which means conventional DRAM supply tightens further for everything else, and Micron captures pricing on both sides. Micron guided to $33.5 billion for Q3 and they reported $41.46 billion, a $7.96 billion beat, the largest earnings beat in the company's history. Gross margins came in at 85% above the 81% they guided. For Q4, they are now guiding to $50 billion in revenue with ~86% gross margins and $31 EPS. At $112 EPS in FY2027, the pre-earnings consensus and a 35x multiple, that is a $3,920 stock but with Q4 guiding to $31 EPS alone in a single quarter, FY2027 estimates will be revised meaningfully higher. Deutsche Bank says the supply-demand gap worsens through all of 2027 and into 2028. The market still thinks this is a cyclical bounce but this is far from it. This is the first chapters of a multi year repricing of the most critical component in the AI economy and Micron is at the center of it. Follow me Melvin for more AI, semis, and the next big market themes.

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93,835 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

This guy replaced an $8,000 survey crew with one drone and a pipeline on Claude Code that digitizes a whole site in a single trip. Inside it is not one drone but a whole pipeline of 5 modules on Claude Code each with its own job all answering to a single orchestrator. And he built them himself with no team. He draws one line on the map from the controller and the whole site starts turning into data at once. Pilot flies the DJI Matrice 350 RTK along the route and reaches where a crew drags tripods: the parking lot and the roofs and the grading. Scanner on the Zenmuse L2 records the geometry with a laser down to the centimeter. Builder in DJI Terra stitches the point cloud into a digital twin. Analyst on Claude builds what the client needs out of the finished model: a volume report and a progress diff and a tour behind a link. Mobile lives in his iPhone and hands the developer a link to the model while he drives to the next site. The site is ready as a file in about an hour and the developer rotates it in the browser himself and measures distances. No crew. No tripods. No week on site. Just him and a pickup and a drone and one API key. The whole processing pipeline lives in a folder at /Users/dev/site-capture. But he did not stop at a one time scan. The pipeline raises him by voice only when a flight misses a patch or when a sag on site goes past tolerance. And this is not made up: the DJI Matrice 350 RTK and the Zenmuse L2 are off the shelf enterprise hardware. The specs are one search away and the L2 really does write around 240,000 points per second. A crew for the same job charges $8,000 and three trips plus a week of desk work. His cost is tokens and subscriptions: one battery charge per flight and around $300 a month to host the finished models. In the end he draws one line on the map and an operator that does not exist scans the site and calculates the volumes and builds the report while he never leaves his truck. There is a huge market of everyone who needs to measure construction sites and warehouses and roofs and parking lots over and over while they still send out a photographer with a camera and wait a week. And he built this whole pipeline himself: one drone and one scanner and Claude Code that turns a flight into a file the developer pays for.

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