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Last week I sat down with Ankit and did a brain dump. 1. A software factory is essentially a CNC machine or a woodworking shop. Without training, many people will cut off their hands. 2. Building a true “dark factory” as fully automated software production with no humans in... show more

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I asked Simon Willison what the next leap in AI software engineering is likely to be. He explained the "dark factory" pattern where teams don't write any code or even look at their code.

I asked Simon Willison what the next leap in AI software engineering is likely to be. He explained the "dark factory" pattern where teams don't write any code or even look at their code.

Lenny Rachitsky

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Martian

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Microsoft CTO, Kevin Scott predicts: "within 5 years, 95% of code will be generated by AI" ...although the important aspect of "creation" in software engineering will remain with humans

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Haider.

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LIGHTS OUT! That is the future of software factories says Matt Van Horn. The rules: no code to be written by humans, no code to be reviewed by humans. PERIOD! How long before we have software companies with human OUT of the loop?

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This Week in Startups

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🚨 Anthropic's CEO: "software engineering will be fully automated in 12 months." two types of people right now: type 1: uses Claude Code with basic prompts. scared about the future. type 2: knows all 35 commands, tricks, and workflows. ships faster than a team of 5. type 1 gets replaced in 12 months. type 2 does the replacing. I wrote a full guide on how to start. zero experience needed.

🚨 Anthropic's CEO: "software engineering will be fully automated in 12 months." two types of people right now: type 1: uses Claude Code with basic prompts. scared about the future. type 2: knows all 35 commands, tricks, and workflows. ships faster than a team of 5. type 1 gets replaced in 12 months. type 2 does the replacing. I wrote a full guide on how to start. zero experience needed.

Khairallah AL-Awady

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Nobody is writing 90% of their code using AI. Here's the uncomfortable truth: The real productivity gain from using AI to write code is closer to 10%, nowhere near the 90% people claim. Sundar Pichai said in 2024 that 30% of the new code at Google was AI-generated. However, he went on to admit, during Lex Friedman's podcast, that engineering velocity had only increased by about 10%. AI-generated code isn't free code. It still has to be reviewed, tested, and made production-ready. Optimizing a single step (code generation) doesn't boost output if bottlenecks shift elsewhere (code reviews). It doesn't matter how much code you generate if you can't keep up the review process. The solution: Automate as much as you can the review and verification of your code. I'm working with Sonar, who is sponsoring this post, and they will take care of the code quality and security analysis of your code: • They review over 300B lines of code every single day • They cover reliability, security, and maintainability for your code • You can integrate them into your CI/CD pipeline • You can install them in your IDE (I use their VSCode extension) • Support for more than 30 languages Here is a link so you can check them out:

Nobody is writing 90% of their code using AI. Here's the uncomfortable truth: The real productivity gain from using AI to write code is closer to 10%, nowhere near the 90% people claim. Sundar Pichai said in 2024 that 30% of the new code at Google was AI-generated. However, he went on to admit, during Lex Friedman's podcast, that engineering velocity had only increased by about 10%. AI-generated code isn't free code. It still has to be reviewed, tested, and made production-ready. Optimizing a single step (code generation) doesn't boost output if bottlenecks shift elsewhere (code reviews). It doesn't matter how much code you generate if you can't keep up the review process. The solution: Automate as much as you can the review and verification of your code. I'm working with Sonar, who is sponsoring this post, and they will take care of the code quality and security analysis of your code: • They review over 300B lines of code every single day • They cover reliability, security, and maintainability for your code • You can integrate them into your CI/CD pipeline • You can install them in your IDE (I use their VSCode extension) • Support for more than 30 languages Here is a link so you can check them out:

Santiago

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The CTO of a $1.5B agent-native software company says we're moving towards a world where the entire team builds the product engineering system that powers your product instead of directly working on the product. They will modify the agents and the constitution of the agents to help them prioritize tasks per Eno Reyes. They will also modify the review system so that it reviews more accurately. It will be akin to a dark factory where the lights are off because it's all robots with no humans inside. In that world, there will be way more things for humans to be involved in because the debates around prioritization/product will be harder and require stronger judgment.

The CTO of a $1.5B agent-native software company says we're moving towards a world where the entire team builds the product engineering system that powers your product instead of directly working on the product. They will modify the agents and the constitution of the agents to help them prioritize tasks per Eno Reyes. They will also modify the review system so that it reviews more accurately. It will be akin to a dark factory where the lights are off because it's all robots with no humans inside. In that world, there will be way more things for humans to be involved in because the debates around prioritization/product will be harder and require stronger judgment.

Ivan Burazin

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Windsurf proudly launches SWE-1, their first AI models designed with a comprehensive approach beyond just code. They enhance the entire software engineering process. Here's what this means for the exciting future of software engineering:

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Fakhr

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Some personal hot takes from AI: engineer Miami follows... 1. Software development is a dead-end profession because anyone can be a software developer now. 2. Anyone can use Cursor or any other tool and generate code. Being a coder and being a software engineer are different. 3. Computers used to be gated; now everyone has the power to make computers malleable. Everyone is a software developer now, but that does not mean they are software engineers 4. If you cannot demonstrate how a coding agent works, you are just a consumer and have imposed an artificial glass ceiling on your career as a software engineer. 5. If you are curious, you will have a job. If you have not been curious in the last two years, you are replaceable. 6. SaaS per-seat economics may become unstable as customers need fewer people to achieve results, prompting founders to think about new unit economics 7. Most companies will take two or three years (or more!) to figure out AI transformation. 8. Some companies are already building AI native teams of five to ten people who can build with the grain of AI 9. There will be an explosion in the number of software developers. Software development is now essentially free, and tokens are cheaper than humans 10. Not enough engineers know what it means to be a product engineer 11. JIRA ticket monkeys are cooked 12. If your company has banned AI, you should quit that company 13. AI is more like a musical instrument than just a tool play with it, make discoveries, build intuition learn where AI is good and where it fails

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geoff @ ai:worldfair

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8090

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Michael Truell (Michael Truell), CEO and co-founder of Cursor, on what comes *after* code: Our goal with Cursor is to invent a new type of programming. A method of building software that's legions higher-level, more productive, and more accessible. This process will be a gradual moving away from what building software looks like today. A world after code. I think it looks like a world where you have a representation of the logic of your software that looks more like English. An evolution towards pseudo-code. You'll write the logic of the software, and you'll be able to edit it at a high level. It won't be an impenetrable million lines of code. It'll instead be something that's easier to understand. These crazy hard-to-understand symbols of computer code start to evolve towards something that's a little bit more human-readable, and human-editable. This is what we're working towards.

Michael Truell (Michael Truell), CEO and co-founder of Cursor, on what comes after code: Our goal with Cursor is to invent a new type of programming. A method of building software that's legions higher-level, more productive, and more accessible. This process will be a gradual moving away from what building software looks like today. A world after code. I think it looks like a world where you have a representation of the logic of your software that looks more like English. An evolution towards pseudo-code. You'll write the logic of the software, and you'll be able to edit it at a high level. It won't be an impenetrable million lines of code. It'll instead be something that's easier to understand. These crazy hard-to-understand symbols of computer code start to evolve towards something that's a little bit more human-readable, and human-editable. This is what we're working towards.

Lenny Rachitsky

89,703 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

We’re in the “centaur” moment for software: humans + AI outperform either alone, but it won’t last. Then machines will dominate, and entry-level engineering gets wrecked fast. Don’t assume “we’ll adapt like before.” The pace is different: a brief phase where humans check AI code, then a rapid shift that guts junior white-collar paths. - Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei "So after Garry Kasparov was beaten by Deep Blue, chess went through a 15–20 year stretch where a “centaur” team, a human checking an AI’s moves, could beat any human or any AI alone. That era eventually ended, and it became mostly just the machine. My worry is that we’re already in that centaur phase for software. During this phase, demand for software engineers might even increase, but the phase could be very short. Then entry-level white-collar work, especially software engineering, gets hit with a major disruption. People compare this to older labor shifts, like farming to industry to knowledge work, and say humans adapt. But those transitions played out over decades or centuries. This one is happening in just a few years, and that speed is the real concern." ---- Video from "Interesting Times with Ross Douthat + New York Times Opinion + New York Times Podcasts" YT channel (link in comment)

We’re in the “centaur” moment for software: humans + AI outperform either alone, but it won’t last. Then machines will dominate, and entry-level engineering gets wrecked fast. Don’t assume “we’ll adapt like before.” The pace is different: a brief phase where humans check AI code, then a rapid shift that guts junior white-collar paths. - Anthropic's CEO Dario Amodei "So after Garry Kasparov was beaten by Deep Blue, chess went through a 15–20 year stretch where a “centaur” team, a human checking an AI’s moves, could beat any human or any AI alone. That era eventually ended, and it became mostly just the machine. My worry is that we’re already in that centaur phase for software. During this phase, demand for software engineers might even increase, but the phase could be very short. Then entry-level white-collar work, especially software engineering, gets hit with a major disruption. People compare this to older labor shifts, like farming to industry to knowledge work, and say humans adapt. But those transitions played out over decades or centuries. This one is happening in just a few years, and that speed is the real concern." ---- Video from "Interesting Times with Ross Douthat + New York Times Opinion + New York Times Podcasts" YT channel (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

17,239 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Elon Musk: DOGE has found that there are twice as many credit cards as humans in the government. “In every government department [so far], there are many more software licenses and media subscriptions than there are humans in the departments. The government was paying for thousands of licenses of software or media subscriptions, and no one had ever logged in even once. We found that there are twice as many credit cards as there are humans. And I still don't have a good explanation for why this is the case. And these are $10,000 limit cards, so it's a lot of money.” Conversation with Ted Cruz, March 2025

Elon Musk: DOGE has found that there are twice as many credit cards as humans in the government. “In every government department [so far], there are many more software licenses and media subscriptions than there are humans in the departments. The government was paying for thousands of licenses of software or media subscriptions, and no one had ever logged in even once. We found that there are twice as many credit cards as there are humans. And I still don't have a good explanation for why this is the case. And these are $10,000 limit cards, so it's a lot of money.” Conversation with Ted Cruz, March 2025

ELON CLIPS

15,821 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

Elon Musk explains why fully autonomous businesses will win “Some of this is going to sound kind of doomerish, but corporations that are purely AI robotics will vastly outperform any corporations that have people in the loop” “Like computer used to be a job that humans had and they’d have like entire skyscrapers full of humans just doing calculations. Now that entire skyscraper of humans doing calculations can be replaced by a laptop with a spreadsheet” “That spreadsheet can do vastly more calculations than an entire building full of human computers. So you can think about, okay, well what if only some of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by humans? That would be much worse than if all the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by the computer” “Really what will happen is the pure AI, pure robotics corporations or collectives will far outperform any corporations that have humans in the loop and this will happen very quickly”

Elon Musk explains why fully autonomous businesses will win “Some of this is going to sound kind of doomerish, but corporations that are purely AI robotics will vastly outperform any corporations that have people in the loop” “Like computer used to be a job that humans had and they’d have like entire skyscrapers full of humans just doing calculations. Now that entire skyscraper of humans doing calculations can be replaced by a laptop with a spreadsheet” “That spreadsheet can do vastly more calculations than an entire building full of human computers. So you can think about, okay, well what if only some of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by humans? That would be much worse than if all the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by the computer” “Really what will happen is the pure AI, pure robotics corporations or collectives will far outperform any corporations that have humans in the loop and this will happen very quickly”

Jack

61,457 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Today, Sierra is releasing Ghostwriter, our agent for building agents. With Ghostwriter, you can create an AI agent for your customer experience — one that can chat, pick up the phone, speak dozens of languages, take action on your systems of record, and be protected with industry-leading guardrails — simply by having a conversation. No clicking, no forms, no menus. Codex and Claude Code have transformed how we build software, making it possible for software engineers to orchestrate and review the work rather than doing all the work themselves. We think the same transformation will happen for all software. Rather than every enterprise app having a web app for humans and an API for automation, every software platform’s UI will be an agent that can do the work on your behalf. I recorded a demo of my building and optimizing an agent with Ghostwriter so you can see how powerful and easy it is to use. It’s completely changed the way our early adopters build agents, and it’s changed the way I think about the software industry. Let me know what you think, and, if you’re interested in trying it out at your business, please reach out directly.

Today, Sierra is releasing Ghostwriter, our agent for building agents. With Ghostwriter, you can create an AI agent for your customer experience — one that can chat, pick up the phone, speak dozens of languages, take action on your systems of record, and be protected with industry-leading guardrails — simply by having a conversation. No clicking, no forms, no menus. Codex and Claude Code have transformed how we build software, making it possible for software engineers to orchestrate and review the work rather than doing all the work themselves. We think the same transformation will happen for all software. Rather than every enterprise app having a web app for humans and an API for automation, every software platform’s UI will be an agent that can do the work on your behalf. I recorded a demo of my building and optimizing an agent with Ghostwriter so you can see how powerful and easy it is to use. It’s completely changed the way our early adopters build agents, and it’s changed the way I think about the software industry. Let me know what you think, and, if you’re interested in trying it out at your business, please reach out directly.

Bret Taylor

1,059,458 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

ELON: STARSHIP IS THE MOST COMPLICATED MACHINE HUMANS HAVE EVER MADE "There isn't a more complex machine. Nobody has ever made a fully reusable rocket. Many smart people have tried before, with immense resources, and they failed. I think this design (Starship Version 3) can be fully reusable. And that full reusability is what will enable us to become a multi-planet civilization." Source: Cheeky Pint Podcast, Elon Musk

ELON: STARSHIP IS THE MOST COMPLICATED MACHINE HUMANS HAVE EVER MADE "There isn't a more complex machine. Nobody has ever made a fully reusable rocket. Many smart people have tried before, with immense resources, and they failed. I think this design (Starship Version 3) can be fully reusable. And that full reusability is what will enable us to become a multi-planet civilization." Source: Cheeky Pint Podcast, Elon Musk

Mario Nawfal

141,813 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

We raised a $135M Series A! 8090’s Series A was led by Salesforce Ventures and joined by WNDR, Craft Ventures, The Production Board, and LAUNCH. We also had the support of a group of esteemed angels including Nikesh Arora, Cliff Robbins, Adam D’Angelo, Shyam Ravindran, Abhi Arun, and Thomas Laffont. We’re grateful for their support. It validates 8090’s mission and traction so far, but mostly it accelerates the work ahead. The capital will go to two places. The first is hiring more people, because the demand we have is accelerating rapidly. The second is investing in the compute and infrastructure needed to keep delivering our solutions at high quality and reliability. 8090 works with the biggest, hardest, most demanding customers in the most regulated industries: healthcare, insurance, life sciences, aerospace, energy, manufacturing, financial services, and the United States government. We help them win by using our AI-enabled Software Factory to design and build entire new systems, refactor old ones, and find and accelerate their edge. Our view is that as Software Factory is used more and more to do mission-critical work inside industries with the least tolerance for error and the most oversight, it will be used to bring transparency, consistency and control to work everywhere. And as we expand the potential of the biggest organizations, we are also building a playbook and a series of network effects into Software Factory that will be valuable to everyone, from SMBs to solo founders. With much gratitude, back to work… PS - A note on why I am doing this as CEO, rather than from the board. This is one of those rare moments when the technological ground is moving so ferociously underneath all of us that the decisions made in the next few years will set the stage for the next twenty. AI can be the grand equalizer. It is the thing that can give everybody a shot, and I would like to help it achieve that potential. Since I left Facebook, I was waiting for a moment like this to return to a full-time operating role. I was a demanding manager back then, but I felt I had no choice given how powerful and undeniable what we were building was. I am convinced that what we are building now is even more important, so there was no decision to make except to be all in.

We raised a $135M Series A! 8090’s Series A was led by Salesforce Ventures and joined by WNDR, Craft Ventures, The Production Board, and LAUNCH. We also had the support of a group of esteemed angels including Nikesh Arora, Cliff Robbins, Adam D’Angelo, Shyam Ravindran, Abhi Arun, and Thomas Laffont. We’re grateful for their support. It validates 8090’s mission and traction so far, but mostly it accelerates the work ahead. The capital will go to two places. The first is hiring more people, because the demand we have is accelerating rapidly. The second is investing in the compute and infrastructure needed to keep delivering our solutions at high quality and reliability. 8090 works with the biggest, hardest, most demanding customers in the most regulated industries: healthcare, insurance, life sciences, aerospace, energy, manufacturing, financial services, and the United States government. We help them win by using our AI-enabled Software Factory to design and build entire new systems, refactor old ones, and find and accelerate their edge. Our view is that as Software Factory is used more and more to do mission-critical work inside industries with the least tolerance for error and the most oversight, it will be used to bring transparency, consistency and control to work everywhere. And as we expand the potential of the biggest organizations, we are also building a playbook and a series of network effects into Software Factory that will be valuable to everyone, from SMBs to solo founders. With much gratitude, back to work… PS - A note on why I am doing this as CEO, rather than from the board. This is one of those rare moments when the technological ground is moving so ferociously underneath all of us that the decisions made in the next few years will set the stage for the next twenty. AI can be the grand equalizer. It is the thing that can give everybody a shot, and I would like to help it achieve that potential. Since I left Facebook, I was waiting for a moment like this to return to a full-time operating role. I was a demanding manager back then, but I felt I had no choice given how powerful and undeniable what we were building was. I am convinced that what we are building now is even more important, so there was no decision to make except to be all in.

Chamath Palihapitiya

1,053,606 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce

.Factory is building something different for software teams. Here's my interview with Factory co-founder and CEO Matan Grinberg Matan Grinberg. He explains why Factory took a different approach to agentic coding and how he thinks about the future of software development. 0:00 Intro 0:36 Why Build Factory 6:57 The Illusion of Reasoning 10:12 Human vs Agent Workers 12:32 Should You Still Learn to Code? 17:25 5-10 Years in the Future 23:01 Future of Work 26:42 Where Factory is Headed 31:40 Factory Behind the Scenes 34:22 Factory with Memory 37:01 Should Companies Adopt Factory? 39:17 Saas is Dead? Disclosure: I'm a small investor in Factory.

.Factory is building something different for software teams. Here's my interview with Factory co-founder and CEO Matan Grinberg Matan Grinberg. He explains why Factory took a different approach to agentic coding and how he thinks about the future of software development. 0:00 Intro 0:36 Why Build Factory 6:57 The Illusion of Reasoning 10:12 Human vs Agent Workers 12:32 Should You Still Learn to Code? 17:25 5-10 Years in the Future 23:01 Future of Work 26:42 Where Factory is Headed 31:40 Factory Behind the Scenes 34:22 Factory with Memory 37:01 Should Companies Adopt Factory? 39:17 Saas is Dead? Disclosure: I'm a small investor in Factory.

Matthew Berman

17,500 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Today Madison Kanna and I talked with dex about software factories, fighting slop, and why 3 AM incidents are essential for building intuition. An overview: 0:06 Conversations and themes at this year's conference 1:14 What is a software factory? 2:39 X vs. Twitter 2:56 Favorite open-source model 3:14 Solving AI slop, seeking leverage 5:28 Will models ever learn intuition?

Today Madison Kanna and I talked with dex about software factories, fighting slop, and why 3 AM incidents are essential for building intuition. An overview: 0:06 Conversations and themes at this year's conference 1:14 What is a software factory? 2:39 X vs. Twitter 2:56 Favorite open-source model 3:14 Solving AI slop, seeking leverage 5:28 Will models ever learn intuition?

Lan

25,938 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

Corporations that are purely AI and robotics will vastly outperform any corporations that have people in the loop You can think of it like how 'computer' used to be a job that humans had. You would go and get a job as a computer where you would do calculations. They had entire skyscrapers full of humans....20, 30 floors of humans...just doing calculations. Now, that entire skyscraper of humans doing calculations can be replaced by a laptop with a spreadsheet. That spreadsheet can do vastly more calculations than an entire building full of human computers So, you think about it: what if only some of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by humans? That would be much worse than if all of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by the computer. And so, really what will happen is the pure AI, pure robotics corporations or collectives will far outperform any corporations that have humans in the loop. It will happen very quickly

Corporations that are purely AI and robotics will vastly outperform any corporations that have people in the loop You can think of it like how 'computer' used to be a job that humans had. You would go and get a job as a computer where you would do calculations. They had entire skyscrapers full of humans....20, 30 floors of humans...just doing calculations. Now, that entire skyscraper of humans doing calculations can be replaced by a laptop with a spreadsheet. That spreadsheet can do vastly more calculations than an entire building full of human computers So, you think about it: what if only some of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by humans? That would be much worse than if all of the cells in your spreadsheet were calculated by the computer. And so, really what will happen is the pure AI, pure robotics corporations or collectives will far outperform any corporations that have humans in the loop. It will happen very quickly

X Freeze

16,841,991 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce