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Launching the UK’s first Bitcoin Business Network 🚀 We are bringing together like-minded entrepreneurs and founders who share one goal: protecting what they have built and building stronger businesses for the future. The Bitcoin Business Network is for UK leaders who think in years, not weeks. If you’re only... show more

The ₿itcoin Collective

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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 views • 10 months ago

Tim Draper gave one of the best speeches at the Bitcoin conference: Stablecoins are "still tied to the government, it still inflates with government spending... It's not like you get to control it." "You better hold Bitcoin... If you want to protect your family, you want to protect your company, you want to protect your country." "It's irresponsible now for a company to operate and have a big treasury and not have some portion of 5%, 10%, 15% in Bitcoin... Because when Silicon Valley Bank went out of business, we almost saw the domino effect. We almost lost all the banks right there." "If the dollars that you own are suddenly worthless... what are you going to do?... And if your government and the currency goes the way the old Argentine peso or the Nigerian Naira went and you don't hold any Bitcoin, your government dollars are worthless."

Tim Draper gave one of the best speeches at the Bitcoin conference: Stablecoins are "still tied to the government, it still inflates with government spending... It's not like you get to control it." "You better hold Bitcoin... If you want to protect your family, you want to protect your company, you want to protect your country." "It's irresponsible now for a company to operate and have a big treasury and not have some portion of 5%, 10%, 15% in Bitcoin... Because when Silicon Valley Bank went out of business, we almost saw the domino effect. We almost lost all the banks right there." "If the dollars that you own are suddenly worthless... what are you going to do?... And if your government and the currency goes the way the old Argentine peso or the Nigerian Naira went and you don't hold any Bitcoin, your government dollars are worthless."

Simply Bitcoin

48,917 views • 3 months ago

"We have outperformed Bitcoin by 50% in the last six years. And we have outperformed every company in the MAG7 except for NVIDIA" Strategy CEO Phong Le on what the market is getting wrong about Strategy "If you believe in Bitcoin, we are amplified Bitcoin"

"We have outperformed Bitcoin by 50% in the last six years. And we have outperformed every company in the MAG7 except for NVIDIA" Strategy CEO Phong Le on what the market is getting wrong about Strategy "If you believe in Bitcoin, we are amplified Bitcoin"

The Wolf Of All Streets

20,556 views • 1 month ago

Michael Saylor and Strategy are driving all of the Bitcoin out of circulation. Since August 11, 2020, Strategy has acquired 714,644 Bitcoin. That is 355.9 Bitcoin per day. And they are not slowing down. In fact, they are speeding up. The blue line is the share of Strategy's share of the remaining mineable supply, and this is only assuming their historical accumulation pace. At this pace, in 2045 they will have over 3.2 million Bitcoin and over 15.2% of the terminal Bitcoin supply. And don't forget: With more capital, their creditworthiness improves. With better creditworthiness, the better the borrowing ability. The better borrowing terms/ability, the faster the accumulation. Strategy is structurally unassailable, and if you don't secure your portion of the network... ...you will only be able to rent exposure. Tick tock.

Michael Saylor and Strategy are driving all of the Bitcoin out of circulation. Since August 11, 2020, Strategy has acquired 714,644 Bitcoin. That is 355.9 Bitcoin per day. And they are not slowing down. In fact, they are speeding up. The blue line is the share of Strategy's share of the remaining mineable supply, and this is only assuming their historical accumulation pace. At this pace, in 2045 they will have over 3.2 million Bitcoin and over 15.2% of the terminal Bitcoin supply. And don't forget: With more capital, their creditworthiness improves. With better creditworthiness, the better the borrowing ability. The better borrowing terms/ability, the faster the accumulation. Strategy is structurally unassailable, and if you don't secure your portion of the network... ...you will only be able to rent exposure. Tick tock.

Adam Livingston

65,839 views • 5 months ago

If you’re one of the incredible gigabrains who’ve now deployed one of the first ever DeFi protocols on Bitcoin with stacks.btc, you’re probably wondering how people can actually use it! Well, fear not! In our latest #360DaysofStacks challenge we show you exactly how to build the front-end for your dApp and even integrate with our friends at and Leather - Grow your Bitcoin!

If you’re one of the incredible gigabrains who’ve now deployed one of the first ever DeFi protocols on Bitcoin with stacks.btc, you’re probably wondering how people can actually use it! Well, fear not! In our latest #360DaysofStacks challenge we show you exactly how to build the front-end for your dApp and even integrate with our friends at and Leather - Grow your Bitcoin!

EasyA 🤳📱

23,075 views • 2 years ago

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”

Arjun Khemani

568,668 views • 8 months ago

It’s time for Disney executives to have a sober conversation and retake the company from the woke ideologues who hijacked it. You’re in the business of entertaining families, not promoting radical ideologies. If you think you are, I have news: Florida is where woke goes to die.

It’s time for Disney executives to have a sober conversation and retake the company from the woke ideologues who hijacked it. You’re in the business of entertaining families, not promoting radical ideologies. If you think you are, I have news: Florida is where woke goes to die.

Carolina Amesty

138,003 views • 3 years ago

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."

Kai

52,699 views • 1 month ago

If you ever needed a reason to not own physical property in the UK and just buy Bitcoin. Here it is;

If you ever needed a reason to not own physical property in the UK and just buy Bitcoin. Here it is;

Scott Ellam

21,621 views • 1 year ago

Harvey Levin says the latest letter sent to TMZ isn’t a ransom note but a demand for one bitcoin in exchange for the alleged kidnapper’s identity: “This letter that we got this morning is not a ransom letter. It is a letter saying that the person who wrote it knows the identity of the kidnapper, and for the price of one bitcoin, that person will disclose the information. The person gives a bitcoin address. We have checked it all day so far, and there is no bitcoin that has been deposited. If this is a hoax, it’s a crime. We’ve turned this over to the FBI and the sheriff’s department.”

Harvey Levin says the latest letter sent to TMZ isn’t a ransom note but a demand for one bitcoin in exchange for the alleged kidnapper’s identity: “This letter that we got this morning is not a ransom letter. It is a letter saying that the person who wrote it knows the identity of the kidnapper, and for the price of one bitcoin, that person will disclose the information. The person gives a bitcoin address. We have checked it all day so far, and there is no bitcoin that has been deposited. If this is a hoax, it’s a crime. We’ve turned this over to the FBI and the sheriff’s department.”

Sean Hannity 🇺🇸

220,419 views • 5 months ago

Luke Dashjr on what actually belongs on the Bitcoin blockchain: "Spam is anything the person who's getting it did not solicit, did not consent to. In the context of Bitcoin, that's any data that doesn't involve, in some way, the transfer of coins from one person to another. Everything else is just clogging the network and ruining the experience for everyone else. People who want to share JPEGs can do that. There are websites for it. There are even decentralized ways to do it, like BitTorrent. The only reason to do it the way they're doing it — forcing it on-chain — is to intentionally push it onto people who have not consented and explicitly do not want it." Luke Dashjr on The The Bitcoin Matrix Podcast ⚡️ #197

Luke Dashjr on what actually belongs on the Bitcoin blockchain: "Spam is anything the person who's getting it did not solicit, did not consent to. In the context of Bitcoin, that's any data that doesn't involve, in some way, the transfer of coins from one person to another. Everything else is just clogging the network and ruining the experience for everyone else. People who want to share JPEGs can do that. There are websites for it. There are even decentralized ways to do it, like BitTorrent. The only reason to do it the way they're doing it — forcing it on-chain — is to intentionally push it onto people who have not consented and explicitly do not want it." Luke Dashjr on The The Bitcoin Matrix Podcast ⚡️ #197

Cedric Youngelman ⚡️

13,318 views • 19 days ago

The unplug plug 🔌 : so many of you entrepreneurs are looking for an angle 📐 .. here is one that will continue to trend, everything in life in the macro are pendulum swings and we have clearly gone very digital in the last 25 years … there are may business ideas to be had and built around the unplug - go get yours. Leave a detailed comment on what you’re seeing with this trend … how you’re unplugging if you are and what idea company or business are uou building to take advantage of the emerging trend ❤️🔑❤️🔑❤️🔑❤️🔑

The unplug plug 🔌 : so many of you entrepreneurs are looking for an angle 📐 .. here is one that will continue to trend, everything in life in the macro are pendulum swings and we have clearly gone very digital in the last 25 years … there are may business ideas to be had and built around the unplug - go get yours. Leave a detailed comment on what you’re seeing with this trend … how you’re unplugging if you are and what idea company or business are uou building to take advantage of the emerging trend ❤️🔑❤️🔑❤️🔑❤️🔑

Gary Vaynerchuk

55,845 views • 9 months ago

Michael Michael Saylor lays out Strategy: You buy Bitcoin with a variable rate perpetual preferred stock,” creating “what is in essence a nearly risk free swap.” Are you really overpaying at “8% or 9%” if you’re using that capital to buy an asset that keeps appreciating? “There’s only $30 million of Bitcoin available for sale every day and we’re buying all of it.” “What’s the best way to predict the future? It’s to determine the future." “If we basically buy $100 billion of Bitcoin, it’s probably not going up to 0%." ⚡

Michael Michael Saylor lays out Strategy: You buy Bitcoin with a variable rate perpetual preferred stock,” creating “what is in essence a nearly risk free swap.” Are you really overpaying at “8% or 9%” if you’re using that capital to buy an asset that keeps appreciating? “There’s only $30 million of Bitcoin available for sale every day and we’re buying all of it.” “What’s the best way to predict the future? It’s to determine the future." “If we basically buy $100 billion of Bitcoin, it’s probably not going up to 0%." ⚡

Bankless

11,866 views • 3 months ago

THE ULTIMATE TRUTH ABOUT BITCOIN - EXPLAINED! Ever notice how Bitcoin feels weirdly spiritual? Like one day you wake up, stare into the orange void, and realize you’re not investing in an asset… you’re investing in the one thing in the universe that isn’t lying to you. Fiat is the ego having a panic attack. Bitcoin is the witness watching the ego melt down in real time. No wonder normies think we’re crazy. We didn’t buy Bitcoin. BITCOIN BOUGHT OUR CONSCIOUSNESS:

THE ULTIMATE TRUTH ABOUT BITCOIN - EXPLAINED! Ever notice how Bitcoin feels weirdly spiritual? Like one day you wake up, stare into the orange void, and realize you’re not investing in an asset… you’re investing in the one thing in the universe that isn’t lying to you. Fiat is the ego having a panic attack. Bitcoin is the witness watching the ego melt down in real time. No wonder normies think we’re crazy. We didn’t buy Bitcoin. BITCOIN BOUGHT OUR CONSCIOUSNESS:

Adam Livingston

15,081 views • 8 months ago

Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.

Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.

Chris Millas

34,483 views • 9 months ago

. Naval: I don’t think you need to have a PhD to be a scientist. If you are naturally curious and you’re rigorous and you discover new things, you’re a scientist. One of my Twitter quips was, “The only true test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life,” and that triggers a lot of people. But how else do you know? How else do you know if you’re smart? If you’re not getting what you want out of life, how smart are you really? You might have had bad luck once upon a time, but consistently, every time? I doubt it. And there’s two parts to that. One is actually testing yourself against the world to see if you get what you want. And the other is wanting the right things in the first place. You know, I wish I was 20 years old and had wings. Umm, not gonna happen. So you gotta wish for the right things too.

. Naval: I don’t think you need to have a PhD to be a scientist. If you are naturally curious and you’re rigorous and you discover new things, you’re a scientist. One of my Twitter quips was, “The only true test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life,” and that triggers a lot of people. But how else do you know? How else do you know if you’re smart? If you’re not getting what you want out of life, how smart are you really? You might have had bad luck once upon a time, but consistently, every time? I doubt it. And there’s two parts to that. One is actually testing yourself against the world to see if you get what you want. And the other is wanting the right things in the first place. You know, I wish I was 20 years old and had wings. Umm, not gonna happen. So you gotta wish for the right things too.

Arjun Khemani

186,506 views • 2 years ago

Only Grant Cardone could shill a cookie in the middle of a Bitcoin podcast "Very seldom do you find a great cookie. This is a 10X cookie right here" "These cookies are beautiful. They're heavy, they're weighted, they got the right look. Are they blended with Bitcoin? There should be if there's not" "Is this your product? No, but I pitch it like it's mine. They call this the triple chocolate cookie, but they should have called it the 10X" "But don't you eventually just buy Bitcoin and do nothing? No, I'm definitely not the type of person to do nothing"

Only Grant Cardone could shill a cookie in the middle of a Bitcoin podcast "Very seldom do you find a great cookie. This is a 10X cookie right here" "These cookies are beautiful. They're heavy, they're weighted, they got the right look. Are they blended with Bitcoin? There should be if there's not" "Is this your product? No, but I pitch it like it's mine. They call this the triple chocolate cookie, but they should have called it the 10X" "But don't you eventually just buy Bitcoin and do nothing? No, I'm definitely not the type of person to do nothing"

The Wolf Of All Streets

44,379 views • 1 month ago

“What’s the catch? This sounds too good to be true.” - the standard reaction from many $STRC critics. Michael Saylor's answer was surprisingly simple: “If you think Bitcoin is going to zero tomorrow forever, you don’t want to own this. If you actually believe in Bitcoin, it’s not terribly risky.” He compared STRC to owning a high-yield building in Manhattan. You only lose if Manhattan sinks into the ocean, the manager burns the building down, or the underlying asset fails. In this case, the underlying asset is Bitcoin. That’s why STRC’s credit risk is basically just a function of your Bitcoin outlook. “If you think Bitcoin is as good as the S&P, this is investment grade.” “If you think Bitcoin outperforms the S&P, it’s almost riskless.” “If you think Bitcoin goes to zero, then this is distressed credit.” h/t Schwab Network

“What’s the catch? This sounds too good to be true.” - the standard reaction from many $STRC critics. Michael Saylor's answer was surprisingly simple: “If you think Bitcoin is going to zero tomorrow forever, you don’t want to own this. If you actually believe in Bitcoin, it’s not terribly risky.” He compared STRC to owning a high-yield building in Manhattan. You only lose if Manhattan sinks into the ocean, the manager burns the building down, or the underlying asset fails. In this case, the underlying asset is Bitcoin. That’s why STRC’s credit risk is basically just a function of your Bitcoin outlook. “If you think Bitcoin is as good as the S&P, this is investment grade.” “If you think Bitcoin outperforms the S&P, it’s almost riskless.” “If you think Bitcoin goes to zero, then this is distressed credit.” h/t Schwab Network

Alex 👽

18,963 views • 2 months ago