Mach33 has published its new SpaceX valuation model. Mach33 believes the current ~$1.77T equity valuation does not fully reflect the long-term upside from Starship, orbital compute infrastructure, and future SpaceX growth initiatives. "The globe below shows their base case for what SpaceX places on orbit through 2040. In 2028... the model puts ~40,000 tonnes of Starlink mass on orbit as the first orbital data center satellites may appear. Through the late 2020s almost all the new mass is still broadband, and the compute halo only scales once Starship cadence is redirected after 2030. By 2040 that halo reaches roughly 370,000 tonnes on orbit, Starlink mass on orbit peaks near 860,000 tonnes around 2038, and the Moon and Mars program lands around 34,000 tonnes of payload on the surface. The revenue view tells the same story in dollars: Starlink scales first to roughly $300 billion a year by the early 2030s and funds the company, while orbital-compute revenue overtakes it around 2036 and climbs toward $1 trillion a year by 2040. That ordering sets up the rest of this report: Starlink hardware goes up first and funds the company through 2030, compute hardware goes up later and carries the value." You can read the full thing here:show more

Sawyer Merritt

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