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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Make no mistake, Iran is WINNING this war Political scientist Prof. Robert Pape: "They're not just inflicting costs, but they're also persuading the world that the probability of success of Trump's strategies is virtually zilch. That is what is demoralizing Americans. That's what demoralizes the U.S military, and...

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Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape
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🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

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Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning. Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out. Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing. His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power. That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter. They're all part of the same strategic picture. Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence. Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it. That's the part almost everyone is missing. America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board. Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing. By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding. One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them. Robert A. Pape
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Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning. Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out. Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing. His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power. That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter. They're all part of the same strategic picture. Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence. Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it. That's the part almost everyone is missing. America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board. Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing. By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding. One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them. Robert A. Pape

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Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: Trump thinks he's forcing Iran into submission, but he's actually making the regime stronger. Most analysts are watching the missiles, the ships, the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil. Prof. Pape thinks they're looking at the symptom instead of the disease. He says the real story isn't what Iran is doing, it's what the war has done to the Iranian people, and Khamenei's funeral is a psychological turning point. Prof. Pape studies how societies respond to war, and he says events like this transform millions of individual emotions into one collective feeling. A population that was traumatized becomes a nation convinced it has to fight back. Then he compared today's Iran to America after 9/11: three thousand Americans were killed, and the country didn't calm down. It became more determined, more united, and ultimately more willing to support wars that many would later regret. Why do we assume Iran will react differently? Because while that anger is building inside Iran, its leverage is growing too. It still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and every week that passes brings Iran closer to what Prof. Pape calls its moment of maximum coercive leverage. That's why he thinks August matters far more than today's headline. Not because another ship might be hit, but because that's when emotion and leverage could collide. Robert A. Pape
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Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: Trump thinks he's forcing Iran into submission, but he's actually making the regime stronger. Most analysts are watching the missiles, the ships, the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil. Prof. Pape thinks they're looking at the symptom instead of the disease. He says the real story isn't what Iran is doing, it's what the war has done to the Iranian people, and Khamenei's funeral is a psychological turning point. Prof. Pape studies how societies respond to war, and he says events like this transform millions of individual emotions into one collective feeling. A population that was traumatized becomes a nation convinced it has to fight back. Then he compared today's Iran to America after 9/11: three thousand Americans were killed, and the country didn't calm down. It became more determined, more united, and ultimately more willing to support wars that many would later regret. Why do we assume Iran will react differently? Because while that anger is building inside Iran, its leverage is growing too. It still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and every week that passes brings Iran closer to what Prof. Pape calls its moment of maximum coercive leverage. That's why he thinks August matters far more than today's headline. Not because another ship might be hit, but because that's when emotion and leverage could collide. Robert A. Pape

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🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape
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🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇷🇰🇼 The conflict is entering what political scientist Robert Pape calls a "spiral" of escalation. Pape says Iran's strikes on Kuwait's desalination plants prove that critical infrastructure is now becoming a deliberate target. And attacks show a high degree of precision and planning. He warns that if Iran disables just a few of Kuwait's largest plants, millions could face drinking water shortages within a week. Robert A. Pape
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🇮🇷🇰🇼 The conflict is entering what political scientist Robert Pape calls a "spiral" of escalation. Pape says Iran's strikes on Kuwait's desalination plants prove that critical infrastructure is now becoming a deliberate target. And attacks show a high degree of precision and planning. He warns that if Iran disables just a few of Kuwait's largest plants, millions could face drinking water shortages within a week. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The country Trump bombed is now collecting a billion dollars a week while dictating the terms. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "The people who will determine this are the shippers themselves and what they're saying is that they demand a clearer statement from Iran that their security will be guaranteed by Iran, not by the United States." Iran wants $12 billion up front, another $12 billion at 60 days, and a billion every week in between. Trump is negotiating against himself. Robert A. Pape
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The country Trump bombed is now collecting a billion dollars a week while dictating the terms. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "The people who will determine this are the shippers themselves and what they're saying is that they demand a clearer statement from Iran that their security will be guaranteed by Iran, not by the United States." Iran wants $12 billion up front, another $12 billion at 60 days, and a billion every week in between. Trump is negotiating against himself. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape
3:30

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape
3:10

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every concession Iran makes is just setup for the next squeeze. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "They're already planning for the next round of the squeeze. Let's get Trump to go down this road, because then they're going to squeeze them again and again." Robert A. Pape
2:18

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every concession Iran makes is just setup for the next squeeze. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "They're already planning for the next round of the squeeze. Let's get Trump to go down this road, because then they're going to squeeze them again and again." Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape
3:55

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

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EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf
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EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape
5:04

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves. Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing. Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion. His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame. Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates. Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives. His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence. His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger. Robert A. Pape
56:48

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves. Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing. Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion. His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame. Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates. Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives. His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence. His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger. Robert A. Pape

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297,063 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's growing power is unstoppable – US professor The US chose to follow a “horrible strategy” against Iran, says US political scientist Robert Pape.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's growing power is unstoppable – US professor The US chose to follow a “horrible strategy” against Iran, says US political scientist Robert Pape.

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape
44:46

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

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Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump has the illusion of control… Trump’s just lost control. America’s not winning… Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play… they are more in control as each day passes.
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Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump has the illusion of control… Trump’s just lost control. America’s not winning… Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play… they are more in control as each day passes.

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Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump is trying to find a third way… ‘just give me the fig leaf so I can declare victory.’ Iran is not doing that… they want to torpedo Donald Trump’s presidency.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump's fatal error with Iran is pushing for a quick victory Political analyst Prof. Robert Pape: "When you're in a no-win scenario, you've got to change the scenario. By sticking with this short time horizon between now and January, President Trump is playing right into Iran's hands. The only way you're going to change this is if you change the time horizon." Robert A. Pape
2:32

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump's fatal error with Iran is pushing for a quick victory Political analyst Prof. Robert Pape: "When you're in a no-win scenario, you've got to change the scenario. By sticking with this short time horizon between now and January, President Trump is playing right into Iran's hands. The only way you're going to change this is if you change the time horizon." Robert A. Pape

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape
1:54

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

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86,735 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten