正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

加载此视频时出现问题。这可能是由于临时网络问题，或视频可能不可用。

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Make no mistake, Iran is WINNING this war Political scientist Prof. Robert Pape: "They're not just inflicting costs, but they're also persuading the world that the probability of success of Trump's strategies is virtually zilch. That is what is demoralizing Americans. That's what demoralizes the U.S military, and... show more

Mario Nawfal

3,918,493 subscribers

71,678 次观看 • 20 天前 •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

34 条评论

Rod D. Martin 的头像

Rod D. Martin20 天前

And the Confederacy won the Civil War too. 🤣🤣🤣

Mr. Slick 的头像

Mr. Slick20 天前

There winning the war, without an Air Force, Navy, there economy is in free fall. It takes a half a day in line to get gas, and they been pretty much cut off from the world, but hey they must be winning.

Patrick Henry 的头像

Patrick Henry20 天前

By winning: they lost their navy, lost their leadership, can’t export oil, currency has collapsed, can’t feed their people, US sails the gulf with impunity and full freedom, but Iran still can send memes and lies via X and Mario.

CJ theFP, Futures are on my mind. 的头像

CJ theFP, Futures are on my mind.20 天前

Agree to disagree. American hegemony is getting stronger.

Flow 的头像

Flow20 天前

are you fucking retarded?

Rick Masters 的头像

Rick Masters20 天前

Pape is insufferable. His ego is off the charts. Too cringe to listen to him.

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. 的头像

David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage.20 天前

Professor Pape will not be able to keep his analytics of a failing effort to overturn the IRGC as the currency failure accelerates catalyzed by a stronger dollar and weaker oil prices Independent of the ongoing state of conflict. Oil prices will be going down because of the rising cost of global Capital and the deterioration of global money supply and maybe he’ll apologize after he’s trying to really provide emotional support for the Iranian hostilities, but he won’t be proven right only right now.

MB 的头像

MB20 天前

LOL!!!! Oh man, this is sad

Paul Rodig 的头像

Paul Rodig20 天前

Make no mistake, Mario Nawfal is full of shit!

Fed Pride 的头像

Fed Pride20 天前

This is false!

Thomas Penn 的头像

Thomas Penn20 天前

The other side of the coin.

Klaus 的头像

Klaus20 天前

You are inviting exclusively US Haters/Trump Haters-Dure they tell all the same Bullshit Propaganda Show....In my View everybody notices how Iran is acting and infiltrating Countries like Libanon with super exoensive Bunkers...But their only Aim is to survive till Midterms ...US did not even start to aim at Infra

James 的头像

James20 天前

No Air Force, no navy, currently under a blockade. But winning? I do not thing you know what that word means.

Plato’s_Cave _Shadows 的头像

Plato’s_Cave _Shadows20 天前

Academic critics have repeatedly targeted 2 of Professor Pape’s best-known books for the same core methodological problem as he’s making here, which is drawing causal conclusions from cases where an outcome occurred while giving less systematic attention to similar conditions where it did not. It’s called “sampling on the dependent variable”, an error in methodology.

Mel💎 的头像

Mel💎20 天前

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 😂🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

Qillir 的头像

Qillir20 天前

Make no mistake, Mario is retarded.

Knownasdan 的头像

Knownasdan20 天前

this guy is an absolute moron, the side that has 100% inflation, no means of exporting oil, cannot do anything against the blockade, no air defense, no air force or actual navy ships, and has increasing civil unrest is (checks notes) winning? on what fucking planet?

Client Global Resource Network - Hotspot Nautilus 的头像

Client Global Resource Network - Hotspot Nautilus20 天前

A restrained superpower vs terrorist of international water.. 🤔

Ryan Howard 的头像

Ryan Howard20 天前

All hogwash. We went through this same crap with Iran during the previous Bretton Woods. Gotta have hyperinflation so that the debt inflates away. That means high gas prices. Too bad so sad. Read a history book people.

heraldmage 的头像

heraldmage20 天前

Actually the US didn't defeat ISIS & ISIL it created & funded them after it was forced to withdraw from Iraq when it refused to renew SOFA. Iran advisors with the Iraqi & Syrian military had ISIS well in hand before Iraq allowed the US temporary return.

Rand 的头像

Rand20 天前

Bullshit

Rasko 的头像

Rasko20 天前

Mario...what are you talking about? You're a very sick man.

mallen2024 的头像

mallen202420 天前

"Iran is WINNING this war" 😂😂😂

Rand 的头像

Rand20 天前

You are completely Iranian propagandists.

Tesla Trucklet 的头像

Tesla Trucklet20 天前

🤣🤣🤣 😂😂😂 🤡

De British 的头像

De British20 天前

Interviewing morons

Ex_impius MD, PhD, Esquire 的头像

Ex_impius MD, PhD, Esquire20 天前

Delusional

Athena 的头像

Athena20 天前

Quick poll of the comments here=Mario is full of shit.

reesred 的头像

reesred20 天前

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

ihavenoidea 的头像

ihavenoidea20 天前

Your account is shit nowadays. I'd love to see who's paying you

just.context 的头像

just.context20 天前

“Professor” lol

Tony Kazmierski 的头像

Tony Kazmierski20 天前

Good to know Prof Pape is delusional.

Silhouette 的头像

Silhouette20 天前

This man is taking something psychedelic if he genuinely believes this. Not only is there a moral clarity in this conflict, but the soon to be collapse of the Iranian Nation due to resource shortage and hyperinflation has been obvious for months.

Mr. Bennett 的头像

Mr. Bennett20 天前

Drivel.

相关视频

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷History doesn't lie, and Political Scientist Robert Pape has 30 years of data to prove it. "American sanctions, oil sanctions is the American way of war. It is not the peace path." Trump is caught in an escalation trap, and every exit costs him everything. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

29,680 次观看 • 5 个月前

Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning. Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out. Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing. His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power. That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter. They're all part of the same strategic picture. Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence. Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it. That's the part almost everyone is missing. America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board. Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing. By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding. One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them. Robert A. Pape

Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: The war isn't over because Iran isn't finished winning. Most people see the ceasefires, the meetings in Doha, the headlines about diplomacy, and assume everyone is trying to find a way out. Prof. Pape thinks that's fundamentally misunderstanding what Iran is doing. His argument is brutally simple: The MOU isn't just a ceasefire agreement, it's a roadmap for Iran to become the dominant regional power. That's why Tehran is fighting so hard over the Strait of Hormuz, and why Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen suddenly matter. They're all part of the same strategic picture. Prof. Pape says Iran is building what every rising power eventually tries to build: a sphere of influence. Tehran's would stretch from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and back to the Gulf, giving it leverage not just over Hormuz but over the alternative routes that could one day bypass it. That's the part almost everyone is missing. America keeps treating these flashpoints as isolated problems, Prof. Pape says Tehran sees them as pieces of the same board. Iran believes it's still gaining power, and countries that think they're winning don't suddenly stop playing. By the end of the interview, I was thinking about two completely different visions of the Middle East colliding. One where America still sets the rules, and another where Iran believes it finally has the chance to rewrite them. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

209,982 次观看 • 3 个月前

Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: Trump thinks he's forcing Iran into submission, but he's actually making the regime stronger. Most analysts are watching the missiles, the ships, the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil. Prof. Pape thinks they're looking at the symptom instead of the disease. He says the real story isn't what Iran is doing, it's what the war has done to the Iranian people, and Khamenei's funeral is a psychological turning point. Prof. Pape studies how societies respond to war, and he says events like this transform millions of individual emotions into one collective feeling. A population that was traumatized becomes a nation convinced it has to fight back. Then he compared today's Iran to America after 9/11: three thousand Americans were killed, and the country didn't calm down. It became more determined, more united, and ultimately more willing to support wars that many would later regret. Why do we assume Iran will react differently? Because while that anger is building inside Iran, its leverage is growing too. It still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and every week that passes brings Iran closer to what Prof. Pape calls its moment of maximum coercive leverage. That's why he thinks August matters far more than today's headline. Not because another ship might be hit, but because that's when emotion and leverage could collide. Robert A. Pape

Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape: Trump thinks he's forcing Iran into submission, but he's actually making the regime stronger. Most analysts are watching the missiles, the ships, the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil. Prof. Pape thinks they're looking at the symptom instead of the disease. He says the real story isn't what Iran is doing, it's what the war has done to the Iranian people, and Khamenei's funeral is a psychological turning point. Prof. Pape studies how societies respond to war, and he says events like this transform millions of individual emotions into one collective feeling. A population that was traumatized becomes a nation convinced it has to fight back. Then he compared today's Iran to America after 9/11: three thousand Americans were killed, and the country didn't calm down. It became more determined, more united, and ultimately more willing to support wars that many would later regret. Why do we assume Iran will react differently? Because while that anger is building inside Iran, its leverage is growing too. It still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and every week that passes brings Iran closer to what Prof. Pape calls its moment of maximum coercive leverage. That's why he thinks August matters far more than today's headline. Not because another ship might be hit, but because that's when emotion and leverage could collide. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

289,951 次观看 • 2 个月前

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

🇨🇳 🇮🇷 If China wants to broker Iran's nuclear deal, it needs boots on the ground. Political scientist Robert Pape says the path to a deal is actually simple on paper. China offers Iran economic integration. Iran freezes its nuclear program. Trump claims the political win. The part nobody's solved is credibility. Iran has been promised things before. The promises didn't hold. Pape says the fix is what he calls the credibility of commitment problem. China would have to put 100,000 personnel inside Iran. Physical presence in the exact places the U.S. and Israel would target in any future strike. That arrangement would make Iran the fourth center of world power. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

96,784 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

306,985 次观看 • 2 个月前

🇮🇷🇰🇼 The conflict is entering what political scientist Robert Pape calls a "spiral" of escalation. Pape says Iran's strikes on Kuwait's desalination plants prove that critical infrastructure is now becoming a deliberate target. And attacks show a high degree of precision and planning. He warns that if Iran disables just a few of Kuwait's largest plants, millions could face drinking water shortages within a week. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇰🇼 The conflict is entering what political scientist Robert Pape calls a "spiral" of escalation. Pape says Iran's strikes on Kuwait's desalination plants prove that critical infrastructure is now becoming a deliberate target. And attacks show a high degree of precision and planning. He warns that if Iran disables just a few of Kuwait's largest plants, millions could face drinking water shortages within a week. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

58,715 次观看 • 2 个月前

“The Iran War Is the Inverse of the Gulf War” — Robert Pape

“The Iran War Is the Inverse of the Gulf War” — Robert Pape

Fidias Panayiotou

256,690 次观看 • 6 天前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The country Trump bombed is now collecting a billion dollars a week while dictating the terms. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "The people who will determine this are the shippers themselves and what they're saying is that they demand a clearer statement from Iran that their security will be guaranteed by Iran, not by the United States." Iran wants $12 billion up front, another $12 billion at 60 days, and a billion every week in between. Trump is negotiating against himself. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The country Trump bombed is now collecting a billion dollars a week while dictating the terms. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "The people who will determine this are the shippers themselves and what they're saying is that they demand a clearer statement from Iran that their security will be guaranteed by Iran, not by the United States." Iran wants $12 billion up front, another $12 billion at 60 days, and a billion every week in between. Trump is negotiating against himself. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

64,658 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Robert Pape says people are misreading the canceled U.S. strikes on Iran. The political scientist argues the real story isn't whether the operation was a bluff, but what the cancellation reveals about Washington's decision-making. In his view, this is the White House caught between military action and restraint, unable to commit fully to either. Pape says the answer to whether the strikes were genuine lies in the military preparations, from pilots and tankers to launch orders, all of which can be traced after the fact. "This is not a sign of de-escalation... what you're seeing is strategic paralysis." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

133,732 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 WAR BY YEAR’S END: IRAN’S GROWING GRIP By the end of the year, Robert Pape predicts that the strategic playing field will likely tilt even further in Tehran’s favor. History shows the probability of a "mechanistic" regime change is only about 5% which is a gamble the U.S. can't afford to rely on. With no good military option to change the current trajectory, Iran is already looking to China and Russia to cement their influence. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

103,074 次观看 • 6 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is currently trapped in a “spiral phase of the escalation trap” regarding Iran, where the illusion of easy diplomatic or military leverage has finally vanished. Robert Pape says the U.S. has no power to compel Iran to stop its nuclear program through air or naval strikes alone; the only remaining military path would require ground forces to physically "haul out" enriched material. A move the U.S. is unlikely to make. “Iran is on its way to becoming the 4th center of world power with or without war by the United States.” Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

71,275 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every concession Iran makes is just setup for the next squeeze. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "They're already planning for the next round of the squeeze. Let's get Trump to go down this road, because then they're going to squeeze them again and again." Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Every concession Iran makes is just setup for the next squeeze. Geopolitical Analyst Robert Pape just laid it all out. "They're already planning for the next round of the squeeze. Let's get Trump to go down this road, because then they're going to squeeze them again and again." Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

79,600 次观看 • 3 个月前

EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf

EP-27 with Top U.S. Political Scientist Prof. Robert Pape (Robert A. Pape) premieres today at 5 PM IST | ANI Broadcast “President Trump could effectively lose his presidency in a war of attrition.” “Iran is becoming the oil hegemon, on the cusp of nuclear weapons.” “Iran is now among the 5th most powerful countries on the planet.” “Pakistan gave Iran somewhere between 600 and 900 centrifuges from its nuclear program” “There is a 70% chance that the U.S. would invade Iran.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIBroadcast #IshaanPrakash #RobertPape #DonaldTrump #USA #Iran #War #Israel #Netanyahu #Pakistan #SaudiArabia #Gulf

ANI

25,719 次观看 • 6 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The behavior on the ground tells a different story than the words coming out of Washington. Political Scientist Robert Pape breaks it down simply: forces are moving toward Iran, not away. "The idea that you're moving all this force continuously toward Iran, and then you're just going to somehow surrender to Iran, this just doesn't seem plausible here." Every day without a credible off ramp is another day the trap closes tighter. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

108,692 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's growing power is unstoppable – US professor The US chose to follow a “horrible strategy” against Iran, says US political scientist Robert Pape.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's growing power is unstoppable – US professor The US chose to follow a “horrible strategy” against Iran, says US political scientist Robert Pape.

Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸

142,957 次观看 • 4 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves. Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing. Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion. His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame. Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates. Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives. His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence. His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger. Robert A. Pape

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Prof. Robert Pape says Trump's repeated Iran walk-backs aren't signs of peace. They show that Washington is out of moves. Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing. Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion. His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame. Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates. Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives. His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence. His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

297,063 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Robert Pape: Iran is playing Russian roulette with U.S. aircraft carriers Iran may not be trying to actually hit an American carrier, but something more dangerous: making sure nobody can guarantee that it won’t. University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape argues Iran’s recent missile launches are a textbook example of what strategist Thomas Schelling called “the threat that leaves something to chance.” Tehran is the weaker conventional power, but it can compensate by deliberately introducing risk. Fire an advanced missile close enough to a carrier that an interception fails, the ship maneuvers incorrectly, or the weapon deviates slightly, and suddenly hundreds of American sailors could be dead. Pape calls it “Russian roulette with the carrier.” And that puts Washington in an ugly position. Keep the carriers there and eventually the roulette wheel may land on the live round. Pull them back and Iran demonstrates that it can push American military power out of the Gulf. Pape believes that is the larger objective: not simply imposing economic costs on Washington, but demonstrating that American military power can be denied. “The goal is to physically evict American power out of the Persian Gulf.” Iran doesn't need to win a conventional naval war. Making staying more dangerous than leaving does the trick. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

293,824 次观看 • 20 天前

Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump has the illusion of control… Trump’s just lost control. America’s not winning… Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play… they are more in control as each day passes.

Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump has the illusion of control… Trump’s just lost control. America’s not winning… Trump is not in control. Iran has cards to play… they are more in control as each day passes.

Clash Report

27,097 次观看 • 5 个月前

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

🇮🇷🇺🇸 University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape says “we’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.” He told CNN that as global oil inventories hit a projected “cliff” in late July and early August, Tehran’s bargaining power will surge. “Why would it cut a deal when its leverage is about to grow?” he asked. Robert A. Pape

Drop Site

86,735 次观看 • 3 个月前

Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump is trying to find a third way… ‘just give me the fig leaf so I can declare victory.’ Iran is not doing that… they want to torpedo Donald Trump’s presidency.

Prof. Robert Pape on Iran War: Trump is trying to find a third way… ‘just give me the fig leaf so I can declare victory.’ Iran is not doing that… they want to torpedo Donald Trump’s presidency.

Clash Report

14,481 次观看 • 5 个月前