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Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz explain the problem with the conventional wisdom of judging markets on how they look today: “As [we] go through our careers, we just see more and more examples where the mistakes that we or others make is, - The market for Uber and Lyft... show more

a16z

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68,941 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Marc Andreessen reveals the hidden math behind why the best markets look small at first "The market for Uber and Lyft must be the market for taxi cabs." "The market for GPUs must be the market for people who like to play games." His rule: when the supply side changes, the market can get 10, 100, or 1,000 times larger. The mistake is sizing tomorrow's company with today's map. Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

Marc Andreessen reveals the hidden math behind why the best markets look small at first "The market for Uber and Lyft must be the market for taxi cabs." "The market for GPUs must be the market for people who like to play games." His rule: when the supply side changes, the market can get 10, 100, or 1,000 times larger. The mistake is sizing tomorrow's company with today's map. Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

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.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 and Jack Altman on underestimating market size and how tech evolved from tools to total transformation. “It turns out some of these markets just turned out to be much larger than people think… like one of the things that's been hardest for us to do is to do market sizing and sometimes we overestimate market size… but more often it’s the other way.”

.Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 and Jack Altman on underestimating market size and how tech evolved from tools to total transformation. “It turns out some of these markets just turned out to be much larger than people think… like one of the things that's been hardest for us to do is to do market sizing and sometimes we overestimate market size… but more often it’s the other way.”

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Marc Andreessen: “I think Substack could be 1000 times the size of the existing content industry.” “Nobody ever asked for a Macintosh. Nobody ever asked for an iPhone. These things had to be designed and built, provided on the supply side before the demand materialized. And then the demand of course turned out to be far higher than anybody expected. And I think that that same thing is exactly true of media.” “You have this massive untapped market for high quality content in basically every domain.” “The existing structure of the media company was a structure that was designed for a world of centralized media. You need a new structure today.” Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

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Marc Andreessen on the 3 things he looks for when investing in a startup The first thing Marc Andreesen looks for is a big market: “Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and displace incumbents? Or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big?” The second thing he looks for is a 10x better product: “Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that justifies a new company? And the way I always think about that is: Is there a 10x change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10x faster, 10x cheaper, or 10x better? If it’s not 10x, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs have to ask ourselves if it’s really worth doing because it’s really hard to start new companies . . . Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. So for a new company to exist, it has to bring a product to market that’s so much better than what exists that it punches through the status quo.” The third is the team: “Is the team outstanding? . . . You want to have a founding team of complementary skillsets. You want to have at least one super strong technologist — quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist. And then it often helps to have someone who is a marketing or salesperson who has a really good understanding of business.” Marc believes that you need all three of these, but if you’re going to compromise on one of those as an investor, it should be the product: “A great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution. The problem with a poor or small market is that even if you do a good job on the product, there just aren’t that many customers so it’s hard to ever get big and people get demoralized . . . And then we evaluate the team of a startup by its ability to get into a big market with a good product.”

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Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

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FairScale deserves to exist. To support, for pure clarity we have attached a video on what to do, as well as instructions below: - Head to - deposit USDC or $FAIR - BUY the NO market with USDC - SELL the other markets with $FAIR At the end of the proposal (24h) the decision market with the highest price is executed. Whichever market wins, your $FAIR or USDC is claimable back, you do not lose anything by participating in this vote. This is a call for ecosystem support. We need Solana and Solana deserves reputation infrastructure.

FairScale deserves to exist. To support, for pure clarity we have attached a video on what to do, as well as instructions below: - Head to - deposit USDC or $FAIR - BUY the NO market with USDC - SELL the other markets with $FAIR At the end of the proposal (24h) the decision market with the highest price is executed. Whichever market wins, your $FAIR or USDC is claimable back, you do not lose anything by participating in this vote. This is a call for ecosystem support. We need Solana and Solana deserves reputation infrastructure.

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