Video wird geladen...

Video konnte nicht geladen werden

Zur Startseite

Marc Andreessen says the best engineers alive stopped sleeping on purpose, and every one of them calls it the happiest they’ve ever been. Andreessen: “You’re up all night doing AI coding because you’re getting so much done that you can’t turn off. The opportunity cost of going to sleep...

21,263 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

0 Kommentare

Keine Kommentare verfügbar

Kommentare vom Original-Post werden hier angezeigt

Ähnliche Videos

Elon Musk put a date on the end of human intellectual supremacy. Then he named the one thing that survives it. Musk: “I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around 5 years.” Not one person. Not one field. The sum. Every mind alive, stacked together, cleared by a system that didn’t exist when you bought your last phone. Musk: “There really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans, apart from being human perhaps.” Being human was never the point. It was the method. For ten thousand years a person’s worth ran on simple accounting. We mattered because we were needed. Dignity was subsidized by usefulness. We never had to admit that because there was no other supplier. There’s a supplier now. Musk doesn’t read that as a loss. Musk: “The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance, where anyone can have anything they can think of.” Anything they can think of. That condition is doing all the work. The bottleneck moves. Out of the world. Into you. Desire was never independent. It was built by absence. Every appetite you have was shaped by something you couldn’t reach. Remove the absence and desire doesn’t get satisfied. It loses the thing that made it. Abundance isn’t the answer to what we wanted. It’s the audit. Scarcity was never only a wall. It was a mercy. It’s why the book stayed unwritten and the company stayed a sketch on a napkin. Not enough time. Not enough money. Every person alive carries a version of themselves that has never once been tested. Scarcity is what kept that version safe. Musk: “Here we are in 2026, let’s see where we stand in 2036.” He isn’t scheduling a machine. He’s scheduling the year the excuse expires. The ceiling was never your raw intelligence. It was friction. Capital, access, permission, the thousand small refusals between an idea and a real thing. All of it going to nearly zero. Whatever you actually are finally gets to exist at full size. A few wants survive it. To build something. To be known by someone. To be chosen by a person who could have walked. Being needed and being loved have always arrived together. Nobody has ever had to tell them apart. We’re the first people who get to find out which one we were receiving. It will be the first honest answer anybody has been given. Anything that must help you is not choosing you. Every kindness you have ever received was made of something that could have been withheld. The moment a thing is guaranteed, it stops being given. Being human is not a skill to be outperformed. It’s a stance no system can take on your behalf. Machines will say yes to anything you ask them. They will never tell you what to ask for. The species spent every year of its existence proving it earned the right to be here. Nothing ever asked it to. The machines inherit everything we could do. We keep everything we are. For all of history that was the consolation prize. It’s about to be the whole inheritance.

Dustin

33,911 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Marc Andreessen explains how AI turned the valley's best programmers into sleep-deprived "vampires": Marc points out a counterintuitive twist in what AI coding has done to developers. You'd expect one of two outcomes, he says. Either coders would leave the profession entirely "because there's no point anymore," or they'd simply have better lives, working a fraction of the hours now that AI makes them so productive. Neither happened. As Marc puts it: "What's actually happened is virtually to a person, they're all working more hours than ever. To the point where there is a new term of art that's used in the valley called the AI vampire...You're up all night doing AI coding because you are so productive." The reason they can't switch off is opportunity cost: "If you go to sleep, you won't be with your 20 AI coding agents keeping them working on all the projects that you have them working on. And so people stop sleeping." Marc describes friends, some of them famous, who look visibly worse than they did six months ago. Sleep-deprived, bags under their eyes, clearly not taking care of themselves. And yet "they are absolutely ecstatic because they are able to produce five times, 10 times, 20 times more code per hour than they could in the past." He shares one example, a Wall Street friend with a 35-year-old computer science degree from MIT who had long stopped coding: "He's picked up coding with AI. He's completely reanimated his entire house." AI jukebox, security cameras, robot pet dogs, smart fridges, every project he'd ever imagined. In his spare time, the friend has "generated 500,000 lines of code just by working with AI." The same thing is playing out inside companies. At leading-edge tech firms, Marc says, coders using AI are estimated to be "20 times more productive than they were before they started using AI." So what happens when code becomes that cheap to produce? Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 points to an elasticity effect: "It turns out there's way more demand for code in the world than was ever able to be satisfied under the old economics. Every company I know has a thousand things that they've wanted to have code for that they've never been able to get to." Now they can do all of it. Companies are shipping products faster, adding features faster, moving into "turbo mode." Coding salaries have inflated to match. According to Marc, the top coders in AI now make $50 million a year, because "they've got the silver bullet. They've got the philosopher's stone." Asked whether any of this is sustainable, his answer is blunt: "Not only is this sustainable, this is going to intensify."

Big Brain AI

21,439 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Marc Andreessen just laid out the next twenty years as a two-item menu, and nobody asked who wrote the menu. Andreessen: "20 years from now is going to be running on Chinese AI or American AI. Like, those are your choices." Eight billion people. Two options. Both decided inside rooms none of us will ever enter. Andreessen: "AI is going to be the control layer for everything." Education, healthcare, employment, law, government. You do not open a control layer when you need it. You pass through it to reach everything else. Andreessen: "The culture is in the weights." Six words that move the entire fight out of public view. Values stop being argued and start being trained. No vote. No debate. No author you can name. By the time a model answers you, the argument is already over. Andreessen: "You want your kids to be taught by a Chinese AI? They're really good at teaching you Marxism and Xi Jinping thought." Easy to reject. That is what makes it the safe half of the question. An obvious enemy is how you get people to stop examining the alternative. Andreessen: "Do they want super woke Northern California AI?" He just conceded both doors. One trains obedience to a state. The other trains obedience to whoever won the internal argument at the lab that shipped it. Neither will feel like training. It will feel like the answer. Andreessen: "Do you want to live in a world of all CCP-controlled robots and drones?" Drones are legible. Everyone pictures a drone. Nobody pictures a tutor. The thing that reshapes a generation never arrives as force. It arrives as help. Every generation before this one was shaped by people who could be looked in the eye, argued with, and outlived. Every teacher you ever disagreed with eventually died and left the question open. A model does not die. It updates. It carries the settled opinions of one decade into every decade after it, still answering your grandchildren in the voice of an argument they were never invited into. That is also why this is winnable. Weights are not weather. They are decisions, made by people, on a Tuesday, in a building with an address. Anything a person chose, another person can choose differently. The binary is the product. Chinese or American asks which owner. Nobody is asking whether there has to be one. Weights that belong to no one cannot be recalled, captured, or aimed at you. That is the only answer that was never on the menu.

Dustin

24,090 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk just put an expiration date on the human hand. Four years. The one tool that was never replaced. Everything else we ever made was something for it to hold. Musk: “You have a recursive, multiplicable, triple exponential. Put a little margin on it, better than any human in four years.” Not a narrow task. Not one industry. Any human. Most progress rides a single exponential. One curve, steep enough to outrun intuition. One curve is why the phone in your pocket humiliates the computer that flew Apollo. Sixty years, running alone. He is describing three, stacked and multiplying. Musk: “You have an exponential increase in the AI software capability, exponential increase in the AI chip capability, and an exponential increase in the electromechanical dexterity.” Better chips shorten the training cycle. Better software sharpens the hands. Better hands generate the physical data that trains the software. Each one pays the other two back. Say each curve only doubles once a year. Four years in, one of them is sixteen times better. Three of them multiplied is four thousand times better. Same four years. One number your instincts can hold. The other they cannot. Then the whole loop goes into a machine that builds itself. Every unit shortens the time to the next. Nobody has ever noticed an exponential from the inside. You do not feel it coming. You feel late. Maybe four years is six. The date is arguable. The direction is not. But the machines are the smaller story. Human skill has always been perishable. Knowledge compounds because we write it down. Every generation starts higher than the last. Skill does not. It lives in one body, in one city, for thirty good years, then goes in the ground. We can copy what a master knew. We have never once copied what a master could do. The best hands that ever lived belonged to someone whose name we will never know. Every civilization ever built has been rebuilding the same hands from scratch. So we did what people do with a limit they cannot beat. We gave it a nicer name. We called it craft. We called it bedside manner. We called it the human touch. Then it came apart, in the least dramatic way possible. Musk: “I wouldn’t want the best ophthalmologist, even the steadiest hand out there, with a hand laser on my eyeball.” Millions of people handed a machine their eyesight. Because the machine does not sneeze, does not tire, does not have a bad morning. Nobody agonized. There was no debate about the soul of ophthalmology. The objection never changes. People will still want a human in the loop. Five words. Musk: “For a less assured outcome.” We only defend the human in the loop while the stakes stay abstract. With a laser pointed at your optic nerve, you do not want a soul. You want a guarantee. The human in the loop was never a standard. It was a shortage. Soon, insisting on one stops being a principle and becomes negligence. For ten thousand years, a human life was priced by what it could do that nobody else could. That price is going to zero. It only reads like a loss because we have never had to tell being needed apart from being worth something. Necessity did that math for everyone before us. Hunger. Distance. The limits of two hands. Everyone who ever lived was handed their answer before they arrived. A field to work. A wound to close. A child to feed. You were whatever the moment was short of. Even love came with work attached. Someone to carry. Someone to sit up with through a fever. Someone to bury. We have never seen what is left of it once the work is gone. Nobody has ever had to say out loud what a person is for. Not what you are needed for. What you are for. Nothing is pointing at us anymore. We are the first who get to step out of the loop and answer it ourselves.

Dustin

37,012 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Marc Andreessen’s body breaks the first rule of emergency medicine. Every ER in America reaches for the same heart attack drug first. It does nothing for him. He has to warn them himself, every time, before the needle goes in. That’s not a glitch. It’s a bug in software built for everyone and tuned to no one. For two hundred thousand years, there was no way to know what made your hardware different from anyone else’s. You inherited a black box, then spent a lifetime mistaking it for yourself. Every choice you’ve ever made, you made through hardware you never once read. The body you’re running was never the statistical average. It was never built to be. Andreessen: “You can get your whole genome decoded now for 200 bucks online.” That number used to be 100 million dollars. One lifetime of biological code, locked behind a price only governments could afford. The man who first decoded the human genome, Craig Venter, spent thirty years building the door. He died the year it finally opened for everyone else. The future of medicine isn’t a better hospital. It’s medicine that finally has your name on it. You map your DNA. You pull a blood panel. You sync the sensor already sitting on your wrist. You feed it to the machine. Andreessen: “It’s almost like the diagnostic bed in Star Trek. It knows everything about you.” It reads your code while you sleep. It catches the anomaly before it becomes a symptom. None of it gets tired, distracted, or wrong. The hard part was never the science. It was never the price. It was the wanting. Andreessen: “That’s the question you have to want to ask.” The machine will hand you the exact truth about your own body. It cannot make you ask for it. Most people will spend eighty years inside a machine they never once requested the manual for. You are the first generation in the history of the species for whom not knowing yourself is a preference. For two hundred thousand years, not knowing yourself was a sentence. Today, it’s a choice. Choose the manual.

Dustin

59,962 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Elon Musk was asked what the economy looks like in ten years. He didn’t describe a boom or a crash. He gave a date. Musk: “Money won’t matter in 2036.” He isn’t predicting collapse. He’s predicting so much supply that accounting can no longer describe it. Musk: “You need the end effectors in the form of humanoid robotics.” End effectors. Hands. Every economy that ever existed was capped by the number of hands available and the hours inside them. That cap is most of human history. Famine was a hands problem. Empire was a hands problem. Slavery was the worst answer anyone ever gave to a hands problem. Musk: “you can go from intelligence manifesting itself only digitally to shaping atoms.” Intelligence has been stuck behind glass since the first computer. Every idea it ever had still needed human hands to carry it out. Musk: “you have a sort of a quasi-infinite economy.” The interesting part isn’t whether the abundance arrives. It’s what money turns out to have been. Not paper. Not a number in an app. A dollar is a claim on somebody else’s hours. Every price you ever paid was a bid on a piece of a stranger’s life. Every wage you ever earned was somebody bidding on yours. So “money won’t matter” is not a sentence about currency. It’s a sentence about need. If nobody has to buy your hours, the claim has nothing left to point at. Musk: “You want money for food, housing, transport, entertainment.” That list is accurate, and it is the smallest a person has ever been reduced to. A stomach and an address. Nobody has ever wanted only that. Under every paycheck was a second thing that never printed on the stub. Proof that a stranger somewhere needed something only you could give. The economy was the largest machine ever built for making strangers necessary to each other. The goods were the byproduct. Every ancestor of yours worked so the next one wouldn’t have to. Nobody ever wrote down what to do on the day someone finally didn’t. We already know what happens when the supply arrives and the necessity leaves. We have run it one person at a time for a century. The retired man with a full account and nothing waiting for him in the morning. The lottery winner who comes apart with every need met. Nobody in that condition was ever cured by more. Musk: “There’s no analogy or metaphor that I think illustrates the magnitude of change that we’re going to experience here.” He’s right, and it runs deeper than economics. Every era before this one organized itself around scarcity. Take scarcity out and there is nothing left to compare it to. Notice what abundance never touches. Anything that can be copied falls to zero. What remains is everything that can’t. Land. Rank. Being first. The attention of one specific person who could be spending it somewhere else. Abundance doesn’t kill money. It strips it down to the only things it was ever really buying. The goods, the services, the things we spent ten thousand years calling wealth, turn out to have been the easy part. So the question waiting in 2036 isn’t how you’ll get by. Provision is handled. It’s what you answer when nothing requires you and everything is given. Most of us were never chosen. We were needed, and needed was close enough to live on. That difference has never once been tested. Abundance is the test. Nothing will be missing. You will be.

Dustin

39,343 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

.DHH credits Marc Andreessen Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with helping him the most during the darkest time of his professional life: "It was during that rough going where Andreessen came in. We were a small company of 60 people and 20 took the offer and left. That's almost a third of the company that decided to leave and we got to a point where we were thinking that not many more have to leave before we need to worry about whether we can keep the lights on. And it was actually Tobi who then put me in contact with Marc Andreessen because Marc had been exposed to this phenomenon at some of his portfolio companies. And Marc gave us reassurance and a bunch of contacts. Marc said, "Do you need someone to come in to help do programming or help with operations or whatever?" And I was floored by the generosity because Marc and I haven't always seen eye to eye on things. Especially in terms of venture capital. He's been one of the main faces of venture capital for decades and I've been kind of critical at times. And it was just a realization that all those grievances we might have thought to be so big once upon a time were actually minuscule. We were fighting the white walkers on the other side of the wall and all our internal squabbles were going to be for nothing if those f*ckers got inside the wall and destroyed everything. And that felt like a real threat at the time. That could've happened. They could very well have just ripped the whole thing apart. And Marc clearly saw that that this was a collective, almost existential threat to the entire industry. If these activists were able to take over these institutions in the same way that they have taken over academia we would be f*cked and not just for a little while but potentially for decades. That couldn't stand. And Marc was incredibly helpful not just in terms of these contacts and introductions and so on but it was very powerful. When you have literally 40,000 people on Twitter calling you all the worst things in the world even the strongest individual might go for a second like "Holy sh*t. The mob is coming for me and there's no one else there." And there are other people there. Tobi was there. Marc was there. And it was incredibly helpful to give us the fortitude to go like "No do you know what? We're going to stick with it. We're not going to grovel. We're not going to apologize. We're not going to revert." And then what Marc also did was he gave me a syllabus for understanding the history of wokeness going all the way back to the '60s and beyond. That this didn't just come as lightning from a blue sky. This had an institutional grounding that was set in motion particularly in the '60s and the long march through the institutions, Herbert Marcuse and a lot of The Frankfurt School and all of these groups that had designs on how to reshape society and create the revolution they so dearly wanted, but with a timeline and a roadmap that was demarcated in decades. That it wasn't just like "Well we're going to put something together and then in two years something's going to happen." No they were sitting in the fucking '60s fantasizing about how to overthrow everything in the 2000s. It's actually incredible in a Dr. Evil sense of it but when you're on the receiving end of it it seemed a little less incredible and it was just difficult not knowing where's this coming from? Why is this happening all of a sudden? Well it wasn't happening all of a sudden. There was this long history of it and when you understood that history it made a lot more sense. We weren't just making a rejection for our little corner of the world. We were chipping in in the great civilizational battle of where this country was going to go, whether the white walkers beyond the wall were going to win. And we were like "No they're not going to f*cking win. Get them out of that f*cking wall. Take your goddamn spear and fire it with maximum velocity."

David Senra

525,691 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Jensen Huang was asked about the people technology left behind. He didn't offer a plan. He said the gap already closed. Huang: "All of a sudden artificial intelligence closed that technology divide." That divide was never a gap in ability. It was a language requirement. Huang: "Anybody could be a software programmer now." Every tool we ever built charged admission, and the price was always a language. The press needed literacy. The engine needed the manual. The computer needed code. Every tool in history had the same shape. The human moved toward the machine, compressed into a form it could parse. Whoever couldn't compress stayed outside. Code was always a human speaking machine. Seventy years of people translating themselves down into something a processor would accept. It just learned to speak back. Nothing has ever moved in that direction before. So we sorted people by the toll and pretended we were sorting by mind. The ones who paid became skilled. Everyone else became unskilled, a word that has never once described a real person. It only meant fluent in nothing the market was buying. Huang: "Everybody who are really gifted at their craft but maybe they don't know how to scale themselves with technology, they now have AI to help scale them." The best cook in a village of four thousand died the best cook in a village of four thousand. Not from a shortage of ability, but from a second requirement that had nothing to do with the first. Go back far enough in your own family and there is someone who was extraordinary at something. The world never found out. Neither did they. Ability was never distributed by geography. Access was, and access is the only thing that got recorded. Every system you move through in a day was built by the narrow band who could speak to a machine. Not the best ideas anyone had. The ideas that survived translation. We have never once seen what the rest of the species would have made. The scarcity was never in the talent. It was in the distance between holding it and reaching anyone. That distance was the product the technology industry sold. Huang: "They're welcomed into the world's economy, not burdened by technology anymore because AI made that possible." Burdened. Technology sold itself as leverage for a century, and the man supplying the whole industry just called it a weight. A developer you couldn't afford. A site that broke on a Sunday with no one to call. You paid the technology industry for permission to be findable. Nobody on earth got smarter this decade. The door stopped asking for a password. Huang: "Five years from now, it is likely that we're all going to be more gainfully employed. The economy is gonna be more productive." He grounds that in the labor shortage already on the books. Open work with nobody there to do it, inside an economy panicking about a machine that takes work away. Both cannot be true. The fear says there won't be enough work for us. The ledger says there aren't enough of us for the work. Every time a tool stopped requiring a specialist, the specialist lost a monopoly and everyone else gained a century. Writing left the scribes. The press left the church. The computer left the lab. The barrier was also a shelter. Everyone left outside got to keep the version of themselves that was never tested. For most of history that was a mercy. The wall did the refusing, so you never had to hear it from anyone else. The wall is gone. Now you find out. Nothing about you changed. The requirement did. For the first time, the only thing between what you can do and who it reaches is whether you do it.

Dustin

431,395 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk spent a decade warning that AI could end us. He just said that if a stop button existed, he would leave it alone. Musk: “Even if there was a stop button, we probably shouldn’t press it, because the most likely outcome is incredible abundance for all.” Nothing about him changed. The arithmetic did. Because stopping has a body count. It just never files a report. The tumor found in 2031 instead of 2029. The molecule that sits in a queue for four years. The kid in a country with three hundred doctors, none of them free that week. The risks of building get headlines. The risks of waiting get obituaries that never name a cause. We forgive the harm we allow and prosecute the harm we cause. That instinct built our reflexes, our ethics, our courts. It is also how a civilization freezes the world exactly as it is and calls it mercy. Musk: “There seems to be just inexorable progress here in AI and in robots that even if I wanted to stop it, I couldn’t.” That momentum isn’t political. It’s thermodynamic. Intelligence moves the way heat moves. Into everything colder than itself. You can slow it in one country. You cannot stop it on one planet. And there was never a button. Not for fire. Not for print. Not for the atom. No generation has ever voted to un-know something. Every one of them was certain it stood at a fork. Whether was never on the ballot. Who builds it and what it gets aimed at always has been. A smaller lever than we wanted, and far heavier than we admit. His interviewer heard all of that as surrender. Zanny Minton Beddoes: “You seem to have decided it’s inevitable, let’s hope for the best and go for the ride.” He corrected the verb. Musk: “Let’s enjoy the ride is, I think, my philosophy at this point.” Hoping for the best treats the future as weather. Enjoying the ride treats it as a place you live. And what waits there is not convenience. Diseases that consumed a century of human attention, ended by minds that never sleep and never forget. Energy cheap enough that access stops being a privilege. Genius born in places that were never going to hand it a lever. Not gated by wealth or geography. Abundance as the default condition of being alive. But the deepest thing it moves isn’t material. Scarcity is the operating system underneath everything we are. Property, borders, law, hierarchy, most of what we call virtue. Ethics is rationing with better branding. Every war over a river. Every empire over a trade route. Every cruelty that began as arithmetic. And none of it was necessary. The atoms were always here. So was the energy. The only thing we were ever short of was the intelligence to arrange them. Scarcity was never a law of nature. It was a wait. Every human who ever starved was early. Scarcity didn’t just shape our answers. It supplied the question. Every religion, every moral code, every inherited idea about what a life is for was written by people who were hungry. That authorship is ending. We are about to be the first humans who have to answer that on a full stomach. Not obsolete. Free. And freedom has never once told anyone what to do with it. He never said the risk was zero. He said the opposite, first, and louder than anyone. He is saying the fear was aimed at the wrong thing. It was never the machine. It was the part of us that would have reached for the button and called it wisdom.

Dustin

15,346 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Elon Musk just told you the job is dying. Most people heard a prediction. A few heard a prison door opening. Musk: “In less than 20 years, working at all will be optional.” That is not a policy suggestion. That is a countdown. For three hundred years, the human blueprint has been identical. You are born. You move to the city. You rent a box near the office. You trade your body and your hours for the right to exist. You do this until you are old. Then you stop. Then you die. The entire model runs on one assumption. That human labor is the only engine. AI and robotics delete that assumption. When the machine handles production at a scale no human crew can match, the forced migration to the city evaporates. The commute evaporates. The cubicle evaporates. The alarm clock that owns your nervous system for forty years evaporates. Musk: “I think it won’t be the case that you have to be in a city for a job.” The city was never a choice. It was a requirement disguised as ambition. You moved to the noise and the concrete and the $4,000 rent because the paycheck lived there. Remove the paycheck from the equation and the geography changes overnight. You can live in the mountains. On the coast. In the silence of a town most people have never heard of. You can wake up to nothing but trees and cold air and the complete absence of anyone else’s schedule. That is not a fantasy. That is the math resolving. But here is where most people break. They hear “work is optional” and they see emptiness. A species with nothing to do. Billions of people staring at screens until their minds dissolve. That fear tells you everything about what the system has already done to us. We confused labor with purpose. The grind with meaning. The paycheck with proof that we matter. Musk: “In the same way that you could grow your own vegetables in your garden.” The analogy is precise. You do not grow tomatoes because the economy demands it. You grow them because something in you wants to build a thing with your hands and watch it come alive. That instinct does not disappear when the job does. It gets unleashed. The artist who spent twenty years doing accounting finally paints. The engineer who always wanted to build something of her own finally builds it. The kid in a small town who could never afford to take the risk finally takes it. Work does not vanish. Forced work vanishes. What replaces it is creation without a gun to your head. This is the part that keeps me up at night. We are standing at the edge of the largest liberation in human history. And the loudest voices in the room are begging to stay in the cell. They want the commute. They want the boss. They want the structure that tells them when to eat and when to sleep and when they are allowed to think about their own life. Because freedom without a template is terrifying. The next twenty years will not test our technology. The technology is already ahead of schedule. They will test whether the species can handle what it has been asking for since the beginning of civilization. Time. Space. Silence. And the unbearable weight of choosing what your life actually means when no one is forcing the answer. That is not a prediction. That is the final exam. And nobody is ready.

Dustin

111,869 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Jensen Huang just described something that should keep every worker in America awake tonight. Not because AI is coming for their job. Because most of them never understood what their job actually was. Huang: “The task of our job and the purpose of our job are related, not the same.” Most people think their job is the thing they do with their hands for eight hours a day. Write code. Fill spreadsheets. Draft emails. Push pixels. That was never the job. That was the task. The job was always the thinking underneath it. Huang: “If you apply that to me, you would come to the conclusion what Jensen does for a living is tap on phones and talk. And tapping on phones and talking, AI has done that just fine. And therefore my job should be gone. But I’m busier than ever.” This is the part nobody wants to sit with. The people panicking about AI aren’t afraid of losing their work. They’re afraid of finding out they never had any. They had a routine. A repetitive motion. A series of keystrokes that felt like purpose. Now a machine does it in four seconds. Huang: “AI has created more than half a million jobs in the last couple of years.” The data says one thing. The fear says another. Because the fear was never about employment numbers. It was about identity. We spent fifty years hunched over keyboards, convinced the hunching was the work. Huang: “The idea that being human means to hunch over on this little thing, typing all the time… 50 years before that, people didn’t do that.” Fifty years. That’s all it took to build an entire identity around a posture. We don’t type for a living. We think for a living. We imagine for a living. The keyboard was always just the delivery mechanism. Never the product. Huang: “It is a fundamental flaw that we only need a billion lines of code written. We need a trillion lines of code written.” The demand was always infinite. The bottleneck was always our fingers. AI doesn’t shrink the workforce. It removes the cap on what the workforce can actually build. Huang: “Companies that use AI have demonstrated the ability to grow faster. When they grow faster, they hire more people.” Growth doesn’t eliminate people. It pulls them in. Every industrial revolution triggered the same panic. Same headlines. Same wrong conclusion. And every single time, the economy didn’t contract. It expanded into territory that didn’t exist before. The real question was never whether AI takes your job. It was whether you were ever anything more than the motions you repeated. Because somewhere in the last fifty years, we stopped asking what the work was for. We just kept typing. And now the typing is done. And millions of people are about to meet themselves for the first time. With nothing to hide behind. Some of them won’t survive what they find.

Dustin

92,782 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Peter Thiel just explained why the future keeps arriving on your screen and never on your street. Thiel: “It was a bad idea to become an aero-astro engineer. It was a bad idea to become a chemical engineer or a mechanical engineer.” Nuclear was worse than bad. Thiel: “It would have been irresponsible to let you study that as a field in the 1980s.” Irresponsible. The word for splitting the atom, in the country that split it first. Thiel: “These were all industries that were sort of in structural decline because they were getting outlawed. They were getting regulated to death.” Not outcompeted. Outlawed. Nothing beat them in a market. They were closed in a room. One door stayed open. Thiel: “That was the only sort of scientific, technical field that actually had a future in the 1980s.” Computer science. At the time, not even classified as engineering. So the most capable generation this country ever produced filed through the only unlocked door in the building. All of them. For forty years. Thiel: “Silicon Valley deals in the world of bits, most of the economy is the world of atoms.” That line gets quoted as an indictment of Silicon Valley. It is closer to an alibi. They did not abandon the physical world. They were evicted from it. Thiel: “They promised us flying cars and all we got was 140 characters.” Everyone repeats the joke. Nobody ever priced it. A canceled reactor leaves an empty field. A canceled bridge leaves a river. Both can be pointed at. Both can be mourned. The engineer who spent his life optimizing click-through instead of propulsion leaves nothing behind. No ruin. No name. No grave. Regulation is remembered as something done to industries. It was done to people. A rule does not delay a reactor. It deletes the man who would have designed it, twenty years before he picks a major. He never fails at anything. He just never finds out what he was for. The unbuilt has no wreckage, no anniversary, no constituency. It appears in no statistic. It appears as a country that feels smaller than it should, and no one can say why. The century you are living in is not the century that was possible. It is the century that was permitted. You have never seen your own country. Only the version that cleared review. What feels ordinary is not a fact about the world. It is the shape left behind by every no said before you were born. But nothing was destroyed. It was redirected. The talent stayed home. The physics never changed. The atoms are sitting exactly where we left them. And four decades of exile in the world of bits produced the one thing capable of reopening the world of atoms. The detour built the key. The lock was never on the laws of nature. It was on the paperwork. America never ran out of builders. It stopped signing. Somewhere right now, a finished design sits in somebody’s head, waiting on a signature. The pen never left the table.

Dustin

41,977 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

This is psychotic behavior. It’s not just malignant narcissism and dementia. He has lost contact with the objective world and expects everyone to live in his alternate reality with him. It’s all manufactured by his own psyche and no amount of evidence will change it. This is a terrified inner psyche constructing a protective world. He’s insane and existentially dangerous. “Jeanine Pirro made a mistake. It was vandalism. I just told you we did, I think, 78. One of the things was to reflecting pool, hasn’t worked since 1922, because it always leaked. It always leaked from 1922. You know, it's the largest longest pool ever, all that. The concept is beautiful, but it always leaked because of the size, because of maintenance, whatever. But it was built in 1922, and from the day it was built, it like, Biden spent $58 million. Barack Hussein Obama spent much more than that. He said, "I have an idea. Let's take the river from, let's take the water from the Potomac." So they took the water from the Potomac, and it was putrid. It was putrid. It was a disaster. Biden was a disaster. I said, "I'm going to get that face." Along with Doug Burgum, Department of Interior, and we worked harder than that. Now we worked harder in all '70s. It's actually, I think, '81 now. You saw the new horses that just opened by the bridge with the gold. That was the way they were many years ago. Now they looked better than they did many years ago. But these monuments looked better than they did when they were originally built. Not just a little fix up. We made them the way they were plus, and everyone's so proud. The biggest, one of the bigger jobs was not really the biggest, believe it or not, but one of the biggest was the reflecting pool. And we did a great job. We sandblasted the stonehouse at his granite, so it has a long life. We did a great job. We got very expensive material to put on top of the surface that always leaked, because it was stone. It was a stone, sir. Always leaked. And we put it on, and it was beautiful. Now we have photographs of tapes, like moving cameras, right? We have them where people are on the side, cutting it with a box knife. So now I'm not saying I was 100% thrilled with the contractor, but the contractor was rushing. We wanted to get it open for July 4th. And we got it done. But in addition, there was mandalism. Number one, look at the grass, where the grass was all knocked out with a very powerful ingredient. We know very well what it is. But like I say, the name, because people get ideas. But they put a terrible phrase, I won't say that either, but a terrible phrase, on a massive piece of grass that we had just replaced. Kill the grass. We had to replace the grass. A lot of grass. In addition, they took knives or cutters, and they cut the material. And they put their hands and they pulled it. And there was also some maintenance things that we would have routinely fixed. But we had that up, and it was perfect. And then you had the bubblers, which get rid of what forms in the water. And that works great, but they turned it up because of the fight. Because it competed a little bit of noise during the fight. They turned it off, and it grows very rapidly in the water. But that actually works very well. And that's all. So now we're just about set to reopen it. And we had to replace cut areas where they cut it and ripped it. But there's a tape. And Jesse Wooders, by the way, did a whole big thing on it. There's a tape that's out there that I posted on truth. Where you have people leaning over the side, the weakest part, because of the flexibility. You know it moves. It's very complicated. It moves. And the softest part has to be flexible. And that's the stuff you can cut. And these guys knew what they were doing. And they cut all the way along the base, cut, cut, cut. Now, when you need to look at it, it was a day after the 4th of July, with the largest fireworks display in the world.”

Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸

2,266,400 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

There was a parent who lost a child to the needle. Not lost to death, which at least lets you grieve and one day stop. Lost to the street. To the years of disappearing, the phone that stops being answered, the front door left unlocked every single night for a decade on the chance the child might finally come through it. And the parent never stopped. Did not move on. Did not decide the child was too far gone. Drove to the worst parts of town to scan the faces under the overpass. Searched for years, going gray with it, burying the hope a hundred times and digging it back up every morning, because a parent does not get to stop loving a child just because the child is lost. And then came the day it finally happened. The child, hollowed out, certain they were beyond all loving, looked up, and there was the parent's face. And neither of them could speak. They just held on, and they wept, the kind of weeping that has years of grief and years of longing pouring out of it at once, the child sobbing the only word they could find, sorry, sorry, and the parent saying the only word that mattered, which was not "where have you been" and not "do you know what you did to me," but only, over and over into their hair, you're home, you're home, you're home. Now understand. That is not just a real story about a parent and a child. That is God, and that is humanity. No one is forgotten by the Father. He did not fold His arms and wait at home for you to crawl back and prove you were worth it. The moment you were lost, He came after you. And the cost He paid to reach the very bottom of your pit was not patience, and it was not effort. It was His Son, sent down below all of it, so there would be no depth where His face was not already waiting for you to find it. So hear this, wherever it finds you. You were never forgotten, not for one second, not in the worst of it. The door has been unlocked every night since the day you left. He is still driving the worst parts of town. He is still scanning the faces under the overpass. He is still weeping over the ones who are certain they have fallen too far to ever come back. And the moment you turn around, you will not hear "where have you been." You will only hear, said over and over into your hair, the one thing that has been true since before the foundation of the world: you're home, you're home, you're home. Stop running. Come home.

Kirk Rollins

21,168 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Demis Hassabis wants to do something no civilization has ever been able to do. Run reality more than once. Hassabis: “AI itself will maybe unlock new sciences… the one I’m particularly excited about is AI for simulations.” Every economy ever built. Every policy ever enacted. Every war ever fought. Happened exactly once. Against the entire human population. With no way to run it again. Hassabis: “If you raise interest rates by half a percent, you have to do it in the real world and then see what happens. You can have theories, but you can’t run it thousands of times.” Every major decision in the history of civilization was a single experiment run on billions of people with no control group and no second attempt. We called the results knowledge. They were the scars of bets we were never allowed to place twice. Hassabis: “Why aren’t they just sciences like physics today? Because the problem is they’re emergent systems… it’s very hard to do repeated controlled experiments.” Physics became physics because you can drop a ball a thousand times and get the same answer. You cannot drop a civilization and get any answer at all. You just get the wreckage and call it a lesson. Hassabis wants to change that. Hassabis: “If you could simulate things really accurately, then maybe there’s sort of new sciences to be done where you can rigorously sample from a very accurate simulator.” Simulate an economy. Crash it. Rebuild it. Adjust the inputs. Run it again. Do for civilization what the laboratory did for chemistry. But that word “accurately” is doing more work than anyone is willing to examine. To simulate a society well enough to learn from it, you have to simulate the people inside it. Not averages. Not abstractions. Agents with preferences and fears and breaking points. The more accurate the simulation gets, the less separates it from the thing it represents. The line between physics and economics was never about the nature of what was being studied. It was about the limits of the thing doing the studying. Humans were never too complex to predict. We were too complex to calculate. AI does not create new science. It collapses every science into one. Everything computable becomes predictable. Everything predictable becomes simulable. And past a certain resolution, the gap between a simulated world and a real one stops being a technical question. It becomes a philosophical question no one is prepared to answer. A simulation you can tell apart from reality is a simulation that has not finished improving. The people inside a perfect one would not wonder whether their world was generated. They would feel exactly the way you feel right now. Reading this. Certain they are real. That certainty is not evidence. It is exactly what a successful simulation would produce. Hassabis: “That will allow us to make much better decisions in these, today, what are very uncertain domains.” What he is building is not a forecasting tool. It is the quiet proof that “real” was only ever a word for what we had not yet learned to compute. And that word is about to lose its meaning.

Dustin

46,495 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Elon Musk’s real claim about Optimus isn’t that it’s the biggest product ever made. It’s that the biggest product ever made is a tenth of it. Musk: “I think it will be 10 times bigger than the next biggest product ever made.” That isn’t a claim about robots. It’s a claim about every object humans have ever sold each other, and it only holds once you notice what they all had in common. Every product ever built shipped incomplete. The drill needs a hand. The car needs a driver. The phone needs someone awake and holding it. All of it was leverage, and leverage does nothing until something pushes on it. You were the missing part in every machine ever made. That was the design, not a flaw. Optimus is the first product that arrives with the operator already inside. Which is why the company that got there first was never going to be a robotics company. Musk: “Tesla is the only company with all the required ingredients.” The mind and the body were never built by the same people. Labs that can think can’t stamp metal. Companies that can stamp metal can’t think. Tesla spent a decade mass-producing a machine that already has to see, decide, and move through a world full of people. Then priced it for a driveway instead of a defense contract. The robot is that machine with the road taken away. Musk: “You should be able to ask them to do things naturally.” A machine that has to be programmed sells to the people who can program. A machine you can talk to sells to anyone with something they’d rather not be doing. Every product in history was priced against another product. A better phone. A faster car. A cheaper tool. This one is priced against a wage. Wages are the largest line item on earth and the only cost technology has never driven down. Labor is the only thing anyone has ever sold that the seller never gets back. Every wage ever paid was a life billed by the hour. Musk: “Nothing will even be close.” Nothing else is close because everything else was capped by buyers. Demand for a product ends when everyone who wanted one has it. Demand for work doesn’t end. The ceiling was never how many people would buy it. It was how much there is to do, and there has never been a shortage of that. Only of hands. The prediction isn’t that Optimus succeeds. It’s that if it does, it enters the oldest and largest market on earth, one that has never had a competitor. Every product ever made sold you a better way to spend your hours. This one sells the hours back.

Dustin

49,693 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Marc Andreessen just said what no politician will ever admit. The ideology that claims to protect the working class is what ensures they never leave it. Rogan: “We just assume that everybody who makes an incredible amount of money stole it.” That assumption isn’t accidental. It’s load-bearing. Remove it and the entire redistribution framework collapses. Because if wealth is created and not taken, the builder isn’t your enemy. And if the builder isn’t your enemy, you don’t need the politician who promised to fight them on your behalf. Andreessen: “Jeff Bezos is the obvious counterexample. Every time you do the one-click and the thing gets delivered to you two hours later at the cheapest possible price, saving you and your family a lot of time and money.” Bezos didn’t take from the economy. He expanded it. Every transaction voluntary. Every customer better off. Every dollar of his net worth is proof someone chose his service because it made their life easier. The economy isn’t a vault with a fixed amount inside. It’s a system that grows every time someone builds something people want. The fixed pie is a lie. And it has to be. Because the moment you accept the pie grows, you have to ask why you aren’t growing it yourself. That’s the question the ideology exists to prevent. Andreessen: “You can compare and contrast to other countries that have more draconian policies. And the result is they’re much poorer.” Every country that punished creation got less of it. No exceptions. Rogan: “That’s the weird thing about the whole socialism thing, is that it’s never worked ever, and they just go, ‘Well, it hasn’t been done right.’” A century of data across dozens of countries. Same experiment. Same collapse. The ideology doesn’t update because updating would end it. The people pushing redistribution aren’t solving poverty. They’re managing it. Solved poverty doesn’t need a program. Doesn’t need a department. Doesn’t need a politician who campaigns on it every cycle. Poverty is the product that funds the bureaucracy built to eliminate it. When a founder reinvests instead of extracting, that’s not avoidance. That’s deployment. Every dollar reinvested becomes a job. A contract. A supplier. A chain of downstream opportunity that vanishes the moment someone confiscates it at the source to fund a program that will never solve what it was designed to manage. The freest economies produce the most prosperity. The most regulated produce the most dependency. That’s not a coincidence. Dependency is the business model. Free people who build don’t need the system. The system needs people who don’t build. The greatest theft in the history of economics was never committed by a billionaire. It was committed by every ideology that looked a capable person in the eye and convinced them they were helpless. The most dangerous thing you can do inside a redistribution framework isn’t to resist it. It’s to succeed without it. Because one person who builds their way out of nothing, without permission, without a program, without the system, is living proof that everything the ideology told you was a lie. And that proof is the one thing the framework cannot survive.

Dustin

25,122 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

One of the most astonishing attempts at projecting grandiose delusions I’ve ever seen—“so [Obama] tried to bribe them to make a deal… 1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing…” Trump bribed Iran with $324 billion. And got nothing for it. “And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers, and they won't have nuclear weapons, which is what I was all about, because they probably would have used it if they had it. So we had two big moments when they terminated the JCPOA, that was the Obama deal, the Barrack Hussein Obama deal, and when I terminated that, it was very important because it was a road to a nuclear weapon. It was a horrible deal for the United States. It was a deal where billions of dollars was given to Iran. It was a deal where 1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing 7, well, not a 7, 7, 57, I guess, right? But it was put on a big, beautiful Boeing 757. They needed a Boeing 747 to be honest with you, because it was a lot of cash. 1.7 billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran, and on top of that, tens of billions of dollars was made. So they tried to bribe them to make a deal that didn't work. It never works. And that we lived on a great job, and hopefully it's going to be a good relationship, and we're going to get along. And if we don't, we go back to where we started, but I don't know if it's going to be necessary. The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of success to the world, because the oil was really plugged up there for a while. They would call me on occasion, "See, come on, please. Let's go." The oil prices. But the oil is coming way down.”

Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸

31,475 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Elon Musk just explained why a species that solved survival still can’t say what it survived for. Famine. Plague. Predators. Ten thousand years spent answering one question. How do we get to morning. We answered it. The prize was a life optimized for everything except a reason to live it. Musk: “Life cannot just be about solving one miserable problem after another. That can’t be the only thing.” He isn’t philosophizing. He’s naming a design flaw. Every institution we built aims at one target. Don’t die. We hit it, then kept firing, because nothing was ever drafted for what comes after. A solved problem returns you to zero. That is its entire function. Zero is where you stood before it arrived. So a life spent only solving problems is a life spent returning, over and over, to the same coordinate. You can do that flawlessly for fifty years. Nobody would call it failure. There isn’t a word for it. Because a life held perfectly at zero and a life that never happened leave the same evidence behind. The trap holds because from the inside it feels like responsibility. Every problem in your life is gone by tomorrow morning. Money, work, health, the whole ledger. Cleared. What do you do at 9am? Most people have no answer. Not a sad one. Nothing at all. That isn’t depression. It’s an empty coordinate. You’ve been navigating by what’s behind you, and when that clears, the direction clears with it. Push further and it gets worse. Most of what you call your personality is the shape you took under pressure. Remove the pressure and find out how much of that shape was you. Musk: “There need to be things that inspire you, that make you glad to wake up in the morning and be part of humanity.” Inspire is too soft for what he means. A reason that holds when nothing is wrong. Scale that up and you get the century we’re in. A species with no frontier doesn’t go quiet. It turns inward and starts dividing what it already has. Musk quotes Tsiolkovsky: “Earth is the cradle of humanity, but you cannot stay in the cradle forever.” That line gets read as being about size. It isn’t. A cradle isn’t defined by how small it is. It’s defined by the fact that everything inside it was put there by someone else. Warmth, food, safety, all provided. Nothing in a cradle was built by the one lying in it. That’s the condition he’s naming. Not confinement. Dependence you stopped being able to see. Musk: “It is time to go forth, become a starfaring civilization, out there among the stars, expand the scope and scale of human consciousness.” For 13.8 billion years, matter did nothing but obey. Every star that burned before us burned with nothing in the room to see it. Then a fraction of that matter folded into a shape that could ask why any of it was happening. You are not a thing inside the universe. You’re the part of it that turned around and looked. Musk: “I find that incredibly exciting. That makes me glad to be alive.” The problems regenerate. They always have. That was never the question. The question is whether one thing in your life exists that isn’t a response to something going wrong. Survival was the prerequisite. It was never the point. Everything in the cradle was put there by someone else. The physics. The planet. The body. The language you’re reading this in. Leaving was never about distance. It’s the first thing in that room you put there yourself.

Dustin

22,879 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat