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Marinelli Glacier (Cordillera Darwin) 1913 | 2024 Another mind-boggling comparison! 🧊🔥 Marinelli Gl. has lost >15 km during this period! 😲 Mte Shipton (2568 m) at the background is highest peak in CD 🏔️ 📷 1913: pano made of 5 pics by Alberto de Agostini 📽️ 2024: C. Donoso

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Melaine Le Roy

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23,023 views • 8 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Khata-Khat badh gayi mehengai! After not fulfilling the promises of transferring Rs 8500/month to a woman of each family, Congress ruled Karnataka government has saddled the people of Karnataka with the burden of paying Rs 3/litre more for petrol and diesel in the state. After this decision, people of Karnataka would be forced to pay higher amounts for food items, clothing, medicines and all items of basic necessities as fuel prices directly impact prices of all goods. Such a decision just after elections have been concluded, exposes the hypocrisy of the Congress which talks about mehengai but levies approximately Rs 8litre-Rs 12/litre additional VAT in comparison with BJP ruled states. With this hike, petrol in Karnataka is now Rs 8.21/litre more expensive than both BJP-run governments in UP and Gujarat. The price gap is even more staggering if Karnataka is compared with BJP-governed Arunachal Pradesh where the party has come back to power strongly. The petrol prices in Karnataka are over Rs 12/litre higher than in Arunachal. The price gap for diesel is Rs 8.59/litre between the two states with Arunachal being much less expensive. During the last three years of global energy turmoil, the NDA government led by PM Narendra Modi Ji deftly diversified India’s crude oil purchases to ensure that petrol prices actually decreased by about 14% and diesel prices fell by nearly 11% during November 2021 -May 2024 period. During the same period, US saw petrol prices soar 29%, while neighbours Pakistan and Sri Lanka faced severe financial stress due to spike in global crude prices. Additionally, to maintain availability and affordability of transport fuels, Modi government made substantial and timely cut in excise duty in November 2021 and followed it up with another cut in May 2022. The Central govt reduced petrol and diesel prices by ₹5 per litre and ₹10 per litre, respectively, in November 2021. Following up in May 2022, petrol and diesel prices were further cut by ₹8 per litre and ₹6 per litre, respectively. Again on March 14 this year, the OMCs played a vital role in reducing prices further by Rs 2/litre. The BJP-run state governments aligned with the pro-people policies and reduced sales tax on transport fuels to further cut rates for the public and rein in inflationary pressures. For instance, petrol prices in Congress-ruled Telangana is Rs 12.76/litre higher than in UP. The difference in diesels prices between these two states is also significant at Rs 7.89/litre. Similarly, the petrol prices are Rs 9.29/ litre higher in Trinamool Congress-run West Bengal compared with BJP-run Gujarat. PM Modi Ji’s visionary leadership ensured that while the world was facing fuel price surge due to a war in Europe, India remained the only country during that period where petrol and diesel prices went down. #Khatakhat #Hypocrisy
0:45

Khata-Khat badh gayi mehengai! After not fulfilling the promises of transferring Rs 8500/month to a woman of each family, Congress ruled Karnataka government has saddled the people of Karnataka with the burden of paying Rs 3/litre more for petrol and diesel in the state. After this decision, people of Karnataka would be forced to pay higher amounts for food items, clothing, medicines and all items of basic necessities as fuel prices directly impact prices of all goods. Such a decision just after elections have been concluded, exposes the hypocrisy of the Congress which talks about mehengai but levies approximately Rs 8litre-Rs 12/litre additional VAT in comparison with BJP ruled states. With this hike, petrol in Karnataka is now Rs 8.21/litre more expensive than both BJP-run governments in UP and Gujarat. The price gap is even more staggering if Karnataka is compared with BJP-governed Arunachal Pradesh where the party has come back to power strongly. The petrol prices in Karnataka are over Rs 12/litre higher than in Arunachal. The price gap for diesel is Rs 8.59/litre between the two states with Arunachal being much less expensive. During the last three years of global energy turmoil, the NDA government led by PM Narendra Modi Ji deftly diversified India’s crude oil purchases to ensure that petrol prices actually decreased by about 14% and diesel prices fell by nearly 11% during November 2021 -May 2024 period. During the same period, US saw petrol prices soar 29%, while neighbours Pakistan and Sri Lanka faced severe financial stress due to spike in global crude prices. Additionally, to maintain availability and affordability of transport fuels, Modi government made substantial and timely cut in excise duty in November 2021 and followed it up with another cut in May 2022. The Central govt reduced petrol and diesel prices by ₹5 per litre and ₹10 per litre, respectively, in November 2021. Following up in May 2022, petrol and diesel prices were further cut by ₹8 per litre and ₹6 per litre, respectively. Again on March 14 this year, the OMCs played a vital role in reducing prices further by Rs 2/litre. The BJP-run state governments aligned with the pro-people policies and reduced sales tax on transport fuels to further cut rates for the public and rein in inflationary pressures. For instance, petrol prices in Congress-ruled Telangana is Rs 12.76/litre higher than in UP. The difference in diesels prices between these two states is also significant at Rs 7.89/litre. Similarly, the petrol prices are Rs 9.29/ litre higher in Trinamool Congress-run West Bengal compared with BJP-run Gujarat. PM Modi Ji’s visionary leadership ensured that while the world was facing fuel price surge due to a war in Europe, India remained the only country during that period where petrol and diesel prices went down. #Khatakhat #Hypocrisy

Hardeep Singh Puri

108,459 views • 2 years ago

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.
0:24

Why are we at $63,000 Bitcoin in 2026... and why will it be $200k soon? Let me tell you. Because the move above $100,000 was the largest economic changing of the guard Bitcoin has ever seen. And almost everyone is looking at the aftermath backwards. Bitcoin spent 340 days in its six-figure regime. On December 8, 2024, Bitcoin closed at roughly $101,000. By November 12, 2025, it was still roughly $101,000. Price change? Basically ZERO. But underneath the surface, something absolutely enormous happened. Bitcoin's realized price - essentially the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the network - exploded from $38,233 to $56,194. That's +47%. Read that again. Bitcoin spent almost a YEAR going sideways while the economic acquisition basis underneath the entire asset repriced nearly 50% higher. Why? Because OGs were selling. And for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market had enough liquidity at six-figure prices to absorb an absolutely gigantic redistribution of ancient coins. The data is insane. During this period, the trailing-year share of spent Bitcoin coming from: 2+ year old coins reached the 99.2nd percentile historically. 5+ year old coins reached the 99.7th percentile. 10+ year old coins reached roughly the 98th percentile. Long-Term Holder Coin Days Destroyed confirms the same thing. 2025 produced 5.79 BILLION LTH coin-days destroyed. The highest calendar-year total in the dataset. Even higher than 2017. And 58% higher than 2021. Combine 2024 + 2025 and you get: 11.47 BILLION long-term-holder coin-days destroyed. That's 47% more than the 2016–2017 cycle. And 65% more than 2020–2021. This was an enormous transfer of Bitcoin from ancient, low-cost-basis holders into an entirely new ownership base. At the end of 2023, coins older than two years represented 40.8% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. By November 2025? 13.2%. And capital represented by coins younger than one year exploded from 43.8% to 74.1%. That's the changing of the guard. Think about what actually happens economically when an OG who bought Bitcoin at $1,000 sells it for $100,000. The supply of Bitcoin doesn't change. But the CHARACTER of that supply changes dramatically. The seller had a 100x embedded gain and enormous incentive to monetize. The new buyer has a $100,000 cost basis. You have replaced an incredibly profitable latent seller... ...with someone who just committed $100,000 of fresh capital to own the exact same coin. Do this across millions of economically ancient coins and you haven't merely changed ownership. You have RECAPITALIZED the network. Bitcoin eventually fell almost 50% from its $124,700 ATH. Yet realized price barely gave back the enormous increase created during the redistribution. At the first $100k close, the realized price was $38,233. Today the realized price is ~$52,645. So while spot Bitcoin fell from $101k to ~$62k... The aggregate network cost basis is STILL 38% HIGHER. The price got crushed. The capitalization reset survived. And now comes the part I think almost everyone is missing. Those "new buyers" aren't new anymore. At the end of the six-figure regime, coins aged 6 months–2 years represented about 32.8% of realized cap. Today? 59.2%. Nearly SIXTY PERCENT of Bitcoin's realized capitalization now sits in coins that haven't moved for 6–24 months. The hot money is seasoning. The new ownership cohort is becoming the long-term holder cohort. And ancient-holder spending has COLLAPSED from its 2025 highs. On a trailing 180-day basis: 2+ year spending intensity: down ~62%. 3+ year: down ~69%. 5+ year: down ~51%. The OG supply avalanche is drying up. So zoom out. In 2024–2025, old, massively profitable holders distributed into unprecedented liquidity. Bitcoin absorbed it. The network cost basis exploded higher. Price eventually corrected. The new holders DIDN'T collectively dump their coins back onto the market. They aged. Now Bitcoin sits around $62,000 with a realized price near $52,600. The speculative premium has been annihilated. At $100k, Bitcoin traded around 2.65x realized price. Today? About 1.19x. The market has compressed almost all the way back toward aggregate cost basis... AFTER one of the largest economic ownership resets in Bitcoin history. And this is where $200,000 becomes interesting. Bitcoin just needs another demand expansion against a supply base that has already been dramatically recapitalized. If realized price climbs toward $70,000 during the next expansion... $200,000 Bitcoin would represent about 2.86x realized price. The peak of the most recent cycle was already ~2.77x. In other words... you don't need 2017 insanity. You don't even need 2021 insanity. You need continued capitalization of the network combined with a holder base that is now dramatically less eager to sell at the prices where the previous generation unloaded. THAT is the setup. The $100,000 was a massive clearing event. Bitcoin used six-figure liquidity to transfer ancient coins out of the hands of people sitting on absurd gains... ...and into the hands of investors willing to capitalize the network at vastly higher prices. Then the bear market compressed the speculative premium while leaving much of that higher cost basis intact. Now the coins are aging. OG spending is fading. The network has been recapitalized. And the next wave of demand will be competing against a very different supply curve. $62,000 Bitcoin looks depressing if you're staring at the chart. It looks completely different when you look at WHO owns the coins now. This may be the most important holder redistribution Bitcoin has ever experienced. And I think we're watching the foundation for the move to $200,000+ being built in real time.

Adam Livingston

111,421 views • 12 days ago

Belarus has become Russia’s nuclear staging ground. Belarus has not been annexed. But functionally, it has already become part of Russia. Lukashenko has long existed only with the Kremlin’s permission. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko officially appeared to be a bystander - yet missiles and columns of tanks moved through Belarusian territory. Russia used it as its own operational zone. In March 2023, Putin announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. In December 2024, Russia and Belarus signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees that legalized permanent Russian bases and legally included Belarus in Russia’s nuclear strategy. Since mid-2025, around 2,000 Russian troops have been permanently stationed in Belarus, including air defense and aerospace units. In December 2025, the Oreshnik ballistic missile entered combat duty near Krychaw. In May 2026, large-scale joint nuclear exercises were held: 64,000 troops, 200 missile launchers, 73 surface ships, and 13 submarines. The nuclear sharing agreement marks a departure from Russia’s long-standing position, as Moscow spent decades criticizing NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements. Now it is reproducing the same model it once condemned. The 2024 nuclear doctrine explicitly equated a conventional attack on Belarus with an attack on Russia - automatically creating conditions for a nuclear response. Control over the warheads officially remains with Moscow. But Putin stated that Lukashenko himself would select targets for Oreshnik deployed in Belarus. In other words, the Belarusian president would bear public responsibility for missiles launched by Putin. Now to the arsenal and the numbers. As of March 2026, Russia possesses around 4,400 nuclear warheads in total, of which up to 2,000 are assigned to non-strategic tactical forces. Belarus hosts Iskander-M - the 465th missile brigade in Asipovichy. Range: up to 500 km. Accuracy: 5-7 meters. Nuclear warhead: 10-50 kilotons. Vilnius is just 340 km away. Flight time: 3-4 minutes. NATO would have virtually no warning time. Oreshnik belongs to another category. Speed exceeds 14,000 km/h. Up to six independent MIRV blocks, each capable of deploying up to six sub-warheads. Range exceeds 5,500 km. Interception by modern air defense systems is almost impossible. From Belarusian positions, Oreshnik can reach an airbase in Poland in 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17 minutes. Berlin, Ramstein, and Warsaw all fall within range. According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, only three missiles had been produced at the time of deployment. One was used against Dnipro in November 2024. One was destroyed in Kapustin Yar during a joint operation involving Ukraine’s Security Service, Defense Intelligence, and Foreign Intelligence Service. The Kremlin plans to produce up to six missiles per year. There is also Lida airbase - just 40 km from the Lithuanian border. Modified Su-25 aircraft are capable of carrying nuclear bombs. The most dangerous problem is neither range nor speed. It is the impossibility of identification. Until the moment of impact, it is impossible to determine whether Oreshnik carries a nuclear or conventional warhead. Every launch is an automatic nuclear alarm regardless of the actual payload. This ambiguity is a strategic weapon no less important than the warhead itself. Now to the likely scenarios. ◾️ The most likely scenario is not total nuclear war. It is a "demonstration strike": a single low-yield tactical strike against a peripheral military base - for example, an airfield in Poland or the Baltics. The goal is not destruction but testing Article 5. The Kremlin’s logic: "You will not launch a nuclear response over a single tactical strike." ◾️ The second scenario is an Oreshnik strike against a NATO logistics hub: Rzeszów, Ramstein, Warsaw. Most likely with conventional warheads. But this cannot be confirmed before impact. Even a conventional strike under the carrier’s nuclear ambiguity could freeze weapons transit to Ukraine. Shock and fear of escalation alone would be a sufficient outcome for the Kremlin. ◾️ The third scenario is a strike on a nuclear power plant with a conventional warhead. A radiological effect without the formal use of weapons of mass destruction. Maximum psychological pressure on Europe. ◾️ The fourth: a new ground offensive against Ukraine launched from Belarusian territory under nuclear blackmail. NATO freezes, Ukraine becomes isolated, and the frontline shrinks by 400 kilometers. Finally, let’s turn to the West’s response - or the absence of one. No symmetrical nuclear response followed. NATO did not deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltics or Poland. The response remained conventional: additional brigades and expanded air defense. New START expired in February 2026. No new treaty exists. Verification of nuclear arsenals is effectively absent. The United States abandoned the "voluntary compliance with limits" proposed by Russia. Patriot and THAAD were not designed to intercept targets at Mach 10 with maneuvering flight trajectories. Kyiv directly called Belarus’s transformation into a "nuclear outpost" near NATO borders an unprecedented challenge to the global security architecture and a dangerous precedent that de facto legitimizes nuclear proliferation among authoritarian regimes.
1:06

Belarus has become Russia’s nuclear staging ground. Belarus has not been annexed. But functionally, it has already become part of Russia. Lukashenko has long existed only with the Kremlin’s permission. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Lukashenko officially appeared to be a bystander - yet missiles and columns of tanks moved through Belarusian territory. Russia used it as its own operational zone. In March 2023, Putin announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. In December 2024, Russia and Belarus signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees that legalized permanent Russian bases and legally included Belarus in Russia’s nuclear strategy. Since mid-2025, around 2,000 Russian troops have been permanently stationed in Belarus, including air defense and aerospace units. In December 2025, the Oreshnik ballistic missile entered combat duty near Krychaw. In May 2026, large-scale joint nuclear exercises were held: 64,000 troops, 200 missile launchers, 73 surface ships, and 13 submarines. The nuclear sharing agreement marks a departure from Russia’s long-standing position, as Moscow spent decades criticizing NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements. Now it is reproducing the same model it once condemned. The 2024 nuclear doctrine explicitly equated a conventional attack on Belarus with an attack on Russia - automatically creating conditions for a nuclear response. Control over the warheads officially remains with Moscow. But Putin stated that Lukashenko himself would select targets for Oreshnik deployed in Belarus. In other words, the Belarusian president would bear public responsibility for missiles launched by Putin. Now to the arsenal and the numbers. As of March 2026, Russia possesses around 4,400 nuclear warheads in total, of which up to 2,000 are assigned to non-strategic tactical forces. Belarus hosts Iskander-M - the 465th missile brigade in Asipovichy. Range: up to 500 km. Accuracy: 5-7 meters. Nuclear warhead: 10-50 kilotons. Vilnius is just 340 km away. Flight time: 3-4 minutes. NATO would have virtually no warning time. Oreshnik belongs to another category. Speed exceeds 14,000 km/h. Up to six independent MIRV blocks, each capable of deploying up to six sub-warheads. Range exceeds 5,500 km. Interception by modern air defense systems is almost impossible. From Belarusian positions, Oreshnik can reach an airbase in Poland in 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17 minutes. Berlin, Ramstein, and Warsaw all fall within range. According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, only three missiles had been produced at the time of deployment. One was used against Dnipro in November 2024. One was destroyed in Kapustin Yar during a joint operation involving Ukraine’s Security Service, Defense Intelligence, and Foreign Intelligence Service. The Kremlin plans to produce up to six missiles per year. There is also Lida airbase - just 40 km from the Lithuanian border. Modified Su-25 aircraft are capable of carrying nuclear bombs. The most dangerous problem is neither range nor speed. It is the impossibility of identification. Until the moment of impact, it is impossible to determine whether Oreshnik carries a nuclear or conventional warhead. Every launch is an automatic nuclear alarm regardless of the actual payload. This ambiguity is a strategic weapon no less important than the warhead itself. Now to the likely scenarios. ◾️ The most likely scenario is not total nuclear war. It is a "demonstration strike": a single low-yield tactical strike against a peripheral military base - for example, an airfield in Poland or the Baltics. The goal is not destruction but testing Article 5. The Kremlin’s logic: "You will not launch a nuclear response over a single tactical strike." ◾️ The second scenario is an Oreshnik strike against a NATO logistics hub: Rzeszów, Ramstein, Warsaw. Most likely with conventional warheads. But this cannot be confirmed before impact. Even a conventional strike under the carrier’s nuclear ambiguity could freeze weapons transit to Ukraine. Shock and fear of escalation alone would be a sufficient outcome for the Kremlin. ◾️ The third scenario is a strike on a nuclear power plant with a conventional warhead. A radiological effect without the formal use of weapons of mass destruction. Maximum psychological pressure on Europe. ◾️ The fourth: a new ground offensive against Ukraine launched from Belarusian territory under nuclear blackmail. NATO freezes, Ukraine becomes isolated, and the frontline shrinks by 400 kilometers. Finally, let’s turn to the West’s response - or the absence of one. No symmetrical nuclear response followed. NATO did not deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltics or Poland. The response remained conventional: additional brigades and expanded air defense. New START expired in February 2026. No new treaty exists. Verification of nuclear arsenals is effectively absent. The United States abandoned the "voluntary compliance with limits" proposed by Russia. Patriot and THAAD were not designed to intercept targets at Mach 10 with maneuvering flight trajectories. Kyiv directly called Belarus’s transformation into a "nuclear outpost" near NATO borders an unprecedented challenge to the global security architecture and a dangerous precedent that de facto legitimizes nuclear proliferation among authoritarian regimes.

Anton Gerashchenko

59,276 views • 3 months ago

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 views • 11 months ago

#BREAKING 🚨 Japan proves excess deaths in vaccinated Japanese excess deaths after covid vaccination deaths Dr. Yasufumi Murakami, Senior Fellow, Molecular Oncology and Pharmacology Research Centre for RNA Science “The more doses you get, the sooner you’re likely to die.” “…the more doses you get, the sooner you’re likely to die, within a shorter period… Among the vaccinated, death peak emerged, especially between 90- and 120-days post vaccination. “A significant peak forms at three or four months,” “It’s probably due to the vaccine’s influence, with adverse reactions occurring leading to death.” “We found that as the number of doses increases, the peak of deaths appears faster, meaning the more doses you get, the sooner you’re likely to die, within a shorter period. So, the risk increases with more doses.” “If the vaccine had no toxicity or didn’t induce death, there wouldn’t be a peak. That’s the point.” Notes from the Graph “Number of days from final vaccination to death and number of deaths.” “As the number of vaccine doses increases, the peak in deaths appears sooner.” Vigilant Fox report, Japan Releases Bombshell Vax vs. Unvax Data on 18 Million People Video from: Information Disclosure Request Team, Journalist, Scientist and politician. Video released 15 June 2025 Masako Ganaha, Japanese Journalist, X link “If the government won’t do it, then the people should investigate the mass deaths of Japanese people! Database of 18 million vaccinated people revealed for the first time!” “This is a key discovery, the more doses, the more the peak shifts, indicating that the toxicity accumulates. The toxicity overlaps, and the more doses you receive, the faster people die.” Kazuhiro Haraguchi, House of Representatives Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination in Japan Although Japan recorded the world's highest rate of COVID-19 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses per capita, (3.3 doses, 0 -8) COVID-19 cases and deaths exploded after the emergence of the Omicron variant, (despite more than 80% of the population having been fully vaccinated) followed by a significant increase in excess deaths in 2022 and 2023. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these phenomena, the truth remains to be established because sufficient studies and data disclosures have not been conducted to adequately investigate the possible contribution of mRNA vaccines. The causes of the excess deaths from not only COVID-19 but also other factors after repeated mRNA vaccinations must be elucidated, given this could provide valuable information to help combat future infectious disease outbreaks. Japan, 2022 and 2023, excess deaths per million More than 1,400 (three times higher than that in the United States) COVID-19 deaths in Japan accounted for only 10% of these excess deaths Another hypothesized cause of the excess deaths is various adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccinations. As of November 18, 2024, Japan After COVID-19 vaccination Government has provided payouts for 8, 432 injuries Payouts after 903 deaths Numbers that are still increasing, already greatly exceed the numbers of injuries and deaths, for which payments were made, after all other vaccinations in the last 47 years. Many injuries and deaths in the young population E.g. fatal case, 14-year-old girl (vaccinate to protect granny) This policy contradicts an early study (August 2021) showing vaccination did not reduce the viral load of infected individuals Adverse reactions reported Myocarditis, pericarditis, blood clotting, and autoimmune diseases linked to lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) and excessive production of spike proteins generated by the mRNA. Deaths from cancers related to estrogen receptors, such as leukemia, breast, pancreatic, lip/oral/pharyngeal, ovarian, and uterine cancers, have also increased since the population-wide administration of mRNA vaccinations Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 is known to bind to estrogen receptors, located in the nucleus, and includes a nuclear localization signal, which makes it more likely to be conveyed to the nucleus. Another hypothesis involves chronic infection caused by immunosuppression after repeated vaccination. Indeed, recent studies have reported an increase in spike-specific (more immunoglobulin G4, more regulatory T cells) Wastewater monitoring data support this claim. Source-
16:03

#BREAKING 🚨 Japan proves excess deaths in vaccinated Japanese excess deaths after covid vaccination deaths Dr. Yasufumi Murakami, Senior Fellow, Molecular Oncology and Pharmacology Research Centre for RNA Science “The more doses you get, the sooner you’re likely to die.” “…the more doses you get, the sooner you’re likely to die, within a shorter period… Among the vaccinated, death peak emerged, especially between 90- and 120-days post vaccination. “A significant peak forms at three or four months,” “It’s probably due to the vaccine’s influence, with adverse reactions occurring leading to death.” “We found that as the number of doses increases, the peak of deaths appears faster, meaning the more doses you get, the sooner you’re likely to die, within a shorter period. So, the risk increases with more doses.” “If the vaccine had no toxicity or didn’t induce death, there wouldn’t be a peak. That’s the point.” Notes from the Graph “Number of days from final vaccination to death and number of deaths.” “As the number of vaccine doses increases, the peak in deaths appears sooner.” Vigilant Fox report, Japan Releases Bombshell Vax vs. Unvax Data on 18 Million People Video from: Information Disclosure Request Team, Journalist, Scientist and politician. Video released 15 June 2025 Masako Ganaha, Japanese Journalist, X link “If the government won’t do it, then the people should investigate the mass deaths of Japanese people! Database of 18 million vaccinated people revealed for the first time!” “This is a key discovery, the more doses, the more the peak shifts, indicating that the toxicity accumulates. The toxicity overlaps, and the more doses you receive, the faster people die.” Kazuhiro Haraguchi, House of Representatives Increase in Excess Deaths after Repeated COVID-19 Vaccination in Japan Although Japan recorded the world's highest rate of COVID-19 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccination doses per capita, (3.3 doses, 0 -8) COVID-19 cases and deaths exploded after the emergence of the Omicron variant, (despite more than 80% of the population having been fully vaccinated) followed by a significant increase in excess deaths in 2022 and 2023. Although several hypotheses have been proposed to explain these phenomena, the truth remains to be established because sufficient studies and data disclosures have not been conducted to adequately investigate the possible contribution of mRNA vaccines. The causes of the excess deaths from not only COVID-19 but also other factors after repeated mRNA vaccinations must be elucidated, given this could provide valuable information to help combat future infectious disease outbreaks. Japan, 2022 and 2023, excess deaths per million More than 1,400 (three times higher than that in the United States) COVID-19 deaths in Japan accounted for only 10% of these excess deaths Another hypothesized cause of the excess deaths is various adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccinations. As of November 18, 2024, Japan After COVID-19 vaccination Government has provided payouts for 8, 432 injuries Payouts after 903 deaths Numbers that are still increasing, already greatly exceed the numbers of injuries and deaths, for which payments were made, after all other vaccinations in the last 47 years. Many injuries and deaths in the young population E.g. fatal case, 14-year-old girl (vaccinate to protect granny) This policy contradicts an early study (August 2021) showing vaccination did not reduce the viral load of infected individuals Adverse reactions reported Myocarditis, pericarditis, blood clotting, and autoimmune diseases linked to lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) and excessive production of spike proteins generated by the mRNA. Deaths from cancers related to estrogen receptors, such as leukemia, breast, pancreatic, lip/oral/pharyngeal, ovarian, and uterine cancers, have also increased since the population-wide administration of mRNA vaccinations Spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 is known to bind to estrogen receptors, located in the nucleus, and includes a nuclear localization signal, which makes it more likely to be conveyed to the nucleus. Another hypothesis involves chronic infection caused by immunosuppression after repeated vaccination. Indeed, recent studies have reported an increase in spike-specific (more immunoglobulin G4, more regulatory T cells) Wastewater monitoring data support this claim. Source-

Jordan Chain

51,715 views • 1 year ago

Sea Levels Not Surging Despite Years Of Climate Activists And Corporate Media Freaking Out, Study Finds | Audrey Streb, Daily Caller News Foundation One recent study compiling sea level rise data shows oceans are not surging as much as the scientific world previously projected and corporate media has repeatedly sounded the alarm over. The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering published the peer-reviewed study on Aug. 27, authored by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel G. Voortman and independent researcher Rob De Vos. The study concluded that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was well below other widely cited analyses, and that when projections were compared with local data, there was little evidence climate change was driving the acceleration seen in a few regions — a finding energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation challenges mainstream climate change orthodoxy. “Overall, this study indicates that in most places, sea levels are not rising unusually quickly. In the relatively few locations where sea levels are rising faster than average, the cause is almost certainly local factors such as land subsidence or ground compaction,” Sterling Burnett, director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute, told the DCNF. “Global sea levels are currently rising more slowly than they have for much of the time since the last ice age ended — a period during which seas rose more than 400 feet. Any possible increase in the recent rate of rise compared with the past century is small, within the margin of error, and not outside historical patterns.” Though the report doesn’t account for sea level rise everywhere, Voortman told journalist Michael Shellenberger on Tuesday that he was surprised no one had compiled such a study before, noting it is the first to compare projections with recorded local data from the past century. The two data sets the researchers drew from did have some gaps, which meant that most sections in the world with usable data were in the Northern Hemisphere, with several of the “selected stations” spanning North America, Europe and Japan. Gaps in the data included regions around Australia, the northeast of Latin America, East Asia and most of Africa. “The average rate of sea level rise in 2020 is (only) around 1.5 mm/year (15 cm per century)” Voortman said Tuesday. “This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm/year often reported by climate scientists in scientific literature and the media.” The report notes that in the data sets the researchers used, “approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise,” and that regions that did see a spike in sea level likely “local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed at the remaining 5% of the suitable locations.” “It is crazy that it had not been done. … I started doing this research in 2021 by doing the literature review. ‘Who has done the comparison of the projections with the observations?’ And there were none,” Voortman said Tuesday. “I had to do a lot of programming and automate data imports and data management. I organized it by using databases so that I really knew what I was doing. It was very structured because I was dealing with 150,000 locations and, on average, 100 years of data. That made one and a half million lines of data. I found myself for days working on things that I felt, ‘This is more computer science than civil engineering.'” Steve Milloy, senior fellow at the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, told the DCNF that “there are a lot of additional factors that can affect tide gauge measurements including geological changes, groundwater withdrawal, and land use. But climate alarmists falsely chalk up all changes to polar ice melting caused by emissions-driven ‘global warming.'” A few other studies have been published of late that also challenge climate change hysteria, with one widely reported study showing that Arctic Sea ice melting has slowed in the last 20 years. Another recent report found that a 2024 climate change study — heavily cited by legacy media for projecting up to $38 trillion in global damages by 2050 — relied on inaccurate data.
4:31

Sea Levels Not Surging Despite Years Of Climate Activists And Corporate Media Freaking Out, Study Finds | Audrey Streb, Daily Caller News Foundation One recent study compiling sea level rise data shows oceans are not surging as much as the scientific world previously projected and corporate media has repeatedly sounded the alarm over. The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering published the peer-reviewed study on Aug. 27, authored by Dutch engineering consultant Hessel G. Voortman and independent researcher Rob De Vos. The study concluded that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was well below other widely cited analyses, and that when projections were compared with local data, there was little evidence climate change was driving the acceleration seen in a few regions — a finding energy policy experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation challenges mainstream climate change orthodoxy. “Overall, this study indicates that in most places, sea levels are not rising unusually quickly. In the relatively few locations where sea levels are rising faster than average, the cause is almost certainly local factors such as land subsidence or ground compaction,” Sterling Burnett, director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute, told the DCNF. “Global sea levels are currently rising more slowly than they have for much of the time since the last ice age ended — a period during which seas rose more than 400 feet. Any possible increase in the recent rate of rise compared with the past century is small, within the margin of error, and not outside historical patterns.” Though the report doesn’t account for sea level rise everywhere, Voortman told journalist Michael Shellenberger on Tuesday that he was surprised no one had compiled such a study before, noting it is the first to compare projections with recorded local data from the past century. The two data sets the researchers drew from did have some gaps, which meant that most sections in the world with usable data were in the Northern Hemisphere, with several of the “selected stations” spanning North America, Europe and Japan. Gaps in the data included regions around Australia, the northeast of Latin America, East Asia and most of Africa. “The average rate of sea level rise in 2020 is (only) around 1.5 mm/year (15 cm per century)” Voortman said Tuesday. “This is significantly lower than the 3 to 4 mm/year often reported by climate scientists in scientific literature and the media.” The report notes that in the data sets the researchers used, “approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise,” and that regions that did see a spike in sea level likely “local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed at the remaining 5% of the suitable locations.” “It is crazy that it had not been done. … I started doing this research in 2021 by doing the literature review. ‘Who has done the comparison of the projections with the observations?’ And there were none,” Voortman said Tuesday. “I had to do a lot of programming and automate data imports and data management. I organized it by using databases so that I really knew what I was doing. It was very structured because I was dealing with 150,000 locations and, on average, 100 years of data. That made one and a half million lines of data. I found myself for days working on things that I felt, ‘This is more computer science than civil engineering.'” Steve Milloy, senior fellow at the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, told the DCNF that “there are a lot of additional factors that can affect tide gauge measurements including geological changes, groundwater withdrawal, and land use. But climate alarmists falsely chalk up all changes to polar ice melting caused by emissions-driven ‘global warming.'” A few other studies have been published of late that also challenge climate change hysteria, with one widely reported study showing that Arctic Sea ice melting has slowed in the last 20 years. Another recent report found that a 2024 climate change study — heavily cited by legacy media for projecting up to $38 trillion in global damages by 2050 — relied on inaccurate data.

Owen Gregorian

105,142 views • 11 months ago

BREAKING: Elon Musk is days away from filing the largest IPO in human history. $75 billion. One raise. Bigger than Saudi Aramco. If it prices where he wants, he becomes the first person ever worth $1 TRILLION. And he just told Wall Street he's rewriting their rules... Here's what's actually happening and why it affects every investor in America: According to The Information and Reuters, SpaceX is aiming to file its S-1 prospectus with the SEC as soon as this week. More than 21 banks are working on the deal, with roles split by investor channel and region. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would instantly make SpaceX one of the ten most valuable companies on earth. Bigger than Walmart. Bigger than Exxon. Bigger than Meta. On day one. For context, Saudi Aramco held the record for the largest IPO ever at over $29 billion in 2019. SpaceX is reportedly looking to raise more than $75 billion. That's not beating the record. That's more than doubling it. And it could be more money than every single US company raised through IPOs in 2024 and 2025 combined. Now here's the part that has Wall Street losing its mind. Elon Musk wants to allocate up to 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors. Normal IPOs give retail 5% to 10%. The rest goes to hedge funds, pension funds, and institutional investors who get first pick at the best prices. That's how Wall Street has worked for decades. Musk said no. He wants everyday investors to get three times the normal allocation. SpaceX's CFO Bret Johnsen has reportedly already shared the proposal with the investment banks. Each bank is getting a narrowly defined role based on regional strengths rather than the usual broad competition for the same institutional clients. Why would Musk do this? Because Tesla investors made him. Tesla has consistently been one of the most purchased stocks on Robinhood for years. Retail investors believed in Tesla when Wall Street was betting against it. They held through the short seller attacks. Through the production hell. Through the skeptics calling it a bubble. Musk remembers that. Now he's returning the favor with SpaceX. He wants retail investors in early. Not after the institutions have already taken their profits on the first day pop. Let's talk about what SpaceX actually IS right now. Because the company filing this IPO is not the same SpaceX from five years ago. In February 2026, Musk merged xAI into SpaceX in a deal that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. So the company going public now spans three major businesses: SpaceX: the rocket and satellite company that has dominated global launch activity in recent years. Starlink: the satellite internet network that has become SpaceX's largest revenue driver, with millions of subscribers worldwide. xAI: the artificial intelligence company behind Grok, now being integrated into SpaceX operations and Starlink network management. Six weeks after the merger, the IPO target jumped to $1.75 trillion. That's a $500 billion increase in six weeks. Here's the financial picture as we know it. SpaceX reportedly generated roughly $15 to $16 billion in revenue last year. About $8 billion in profit, according to Reuters, driven primarily by Starlink. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that puts the price to sales ratio somewhere between 90x and 110x depending on the revenue figure used. For comparison: Apple trades at about 9x sales. Microsoft at about 13x. Even Nvidia at the peak of AI mania traded around 40x. SpaceX is asking for roughly 100x. That is an extraordinary number. But here's the thing about Musk. People have been saying his companies are overvalued for 15 years. They said Tesla was overvalued at $50 billion. Then at $100 billion. Then at $500 billion. Tesla hit $1.5 trillion. The people who bet against Musk's valuations have lost more money than almost any other trade in market history. SpaceX has dominated global rocket launches in recent years, with a cadence no competitor comes close to matching. Starlink is by far the largest satellite internet provider operating at global scale. The company holds billions of dollars in government contracts, including work with NASA and the Pentagon. And Starship, the most powerful rocket ever built, is getting closer to full operational status with every test. No other company on earth can do what SpaceX does at this scale. Not Boeing. Not Lockheed. Not Blue Origin. Not anyone. That kind of dominance is what justifies paying a premium...
3:50

BREAKING: Elon Musk is days away from filing the largest IPO in human history. $75 billion. One raise. Bigger than Saudi Aramco. If it prices where he wants, he becomes the first person ever worth $1 TRILLION. And he just told Wall Street he's rewriting their rules... Here's what's actually happening and why it affects every investor in America: According to The Information and Reuters, SpaceX is aiming to file its S-1 prospectus with the SEC as soon as this week. More than 21 banks are working on the deal, with roles split by investor channel and region. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would instantly make SpaceX one of the ten most valuable companies on earth. Bigger than Walmart. Bigger than Exxon. Bigger than Meta. On day one. For context, Saudi Aramco held the record for the largest IPO ever at over $29 billion in 2019. SpaceX is reportedly looking to raise more than $75 billion. That's not beating the record. That's more than doubling it. And it could be more money than every single US company raised through IPOs in 2024 and 2025 combined. Now here's the part that has Wall Street losing its mind. Elon Musk wants to allocate up to 30% of the IPO shares to retail investors. Normal IPOs give retail 5% to 10%. The rest goes to hedge funds, pension funds, and institutional investors who get first pick at the best prices. That's how Wall Street has worked for decades. Musk said no. He wants everyday investors to get three times the normal allocation. SpaceX's CFO Bret Johnsen has reportedly already shared the proposal with the investment banks. Each bank is getting a narrowly defined role based on regional strengths rather than the usual broad competition for the same institutional clients. Why would Musk do this? Because Tesla investors made him. Tesla has consistently been one of the most purchased stocks on Robinhood for years. Retail investors believed in Tesla when Wall Street was betting against it. They held through the short seller attacks. Through the production hell. Through the skeptics calling it a bubble. Musk remembers that. Now he's returning the favor with SpaceX. He wants retail investors in early. Not after the institutions have already taken their profits on the first day pop. Let's talk about what SpaceX actually IS right now. Because the company filing this IPO is not the same SpaceX from five years ago. In February 2026, Musk merged xAI into SpaceX in a deal that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion. So the company going public now spans three major businesses: SpaceX: the rocket and satellite company that has dominated global launch activity in recent years. Starlink: the satellite internet network that has become SpaceX's largest revenue driver, with millions of subscribers worldwide. xAI: the artificial intelligence company behind Grok, now being integrated into SpaceX operations and Starlink network management. Six weeks after the merger, the IPO target jumped to $1.75 trillion. That's a $500 billion increase in six weeks. Here's the financial picture as we know it. SpaceX reportedly generated roughly $15 to $16 billion in revenue last year. About $8 billion in profit, according to Reuters, driven primarily by Starlink. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that puts the price to sales ratio somewhere between 90x and 110x depending on the revenue figure used. For comparison: Apple trades at about 9x sales. Microsoft at about 13x. Even Nvidia at the peak of AI mania traded around 40x. SpaceX is asking for roughly 100x. That is an extraordinary number. But here's the thing about Musk. People have been saying his companies are overvalued for 15 years. They said Tesla was overvalued at $50 billion. Then at $100 billion. Then at $500 billion. Tesla hit $1.5 trillion. The people who bet against Musk's valuations have lost more money than almost any other trade in market history. SpaceX has dominated global rocket launches in recent years, with a cadence no competitor comes close to matching. Starlink is by far the largest satellite internet provider operating at global scale. The company holds billions of dollars in government contracts, including work with NASA and the Pentagon. And Starship, the most powerful rocket ever built, is getting closer to full operational status with every test. No other company on earth can do what SpaceX does at this scale. Not Boeing. Not Lockheed. Not Blue Origin. Not anyone. That kind of dominance is what justifies paying a premium...

Surmount

26,794 views • 5 months ago

Data pulled from the Georgia 2020 Election and 2 other states on election night showed impossible vote spikes all over 136,000 votes for Biden when the consecutive averages all throughout the night ranged from 2,000 votes to 45,124 votes at the highest in Georgia. Vote Spikes in Georgia at 1:34 am: 136,155 vote spike: 84% for Joe Biden. 18,788 vote spike: 98% for Joe Biden. 13,035 vote spike: 77% for Joe Biden. 9,385 vote spike: 100% for Joe Biden. Vote dumps contained an average of 49% for Biden in Georgia. Vote Spike in Michigan at 5:31 am: 141,258 votes for Biden: 94% 5,968 votes for Trump: 4% These similar spikes happened in Georgia at 1:34 am, and in Wisconsin at 3:42 am. Vote Spike in Wisconsin at 3:42 am: 143,379 votes for Biden: 85% 25,163 votes for Trump: 15% These vote spikes all favored Biden in highly abnormal, unrealistic percentages, some 98% to 100% for Biden, indicating fraud. The Secretary of State would not provide exact time stamped data when requested, which is concerning, considering they tell you that it's the most transparent election. This is called a cover up. Moving on, the ballot totes that contained ballots were all supposed to have red security tamper-proof tags on them. Pictures and witnesses exposed 9 ballot totes without these tags on them. These "totes" or "suitcases" are very similar to the ones that were hidden under the tables at the State Farm Arena incident where ballots were pulled out from tables without security tags on them and counted throughout the night until Joe Biden cleared the margin of victory needed. Were these the 9 unsecure "totes" placed and pulled out from under the tables that were separate from all of the other ballots after they placed under the skirted table and put into position for the steal? Finally, how does this all comes together, with these unsecure totes and with fraudulent ballots? Bernard Talmadge owns a company called the "Operations Group, Ardleigh Group," and possibly, "Block by Block." Bernard Talmadge is a known ballot harvester who has been caught in Indiana, charges were brought against him and people who were for him, but were then dropped, from a corrupt court. Checks were found in 2018 all made out for $75-$80 dollars, made out from the Operations Group, and sometimes, the Ardleigh Group. An investigative reporter from Florida named Tom Lauder who did an investigation, and in interviewing witnesses he found that people who worked for the Operations Group and the Ardleigh Group were paid $15 per hour to produce ballots. They had a quota of 10 per-hour, which works out to 1 every 6 minutes. If your running door-to-door in an apartment complex, there is no possible way to get 1 ballot or registration every 6 mins. So what's really going on here? let's proceed. According to the Federal Election Commission, his company has taken in $9.1 MILLION for "field operations." $9.1 million divided by the $75 and multiply it by 50 votes, that's enough money to produce around 6 MILLION ballots. A spreadsheet shown in this presentation shows all the people who gave this company money, what's fascinating is that 1/3 of the $9 MILLION dollars came from the MAINE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. The Maine Democratic Party didn't even take in $3 million dollars during the 2019-2020 election. The evidence of the checks used to pay people were then sent out for background information and analysis, over 400 of them. What was found and what was interesting is that, of the checks that were provided, 2 checks were exactly the same, but one was from a company called "Dreams Enterprises," and the other check comes from the "Ardleigh Group." The signatures on both the checks are exactly the same, the routing numbers are the same, and the account numbers are the same, which can be seen in the video above. So, what kind of illegal ballot producing money laundering operation do we really have going on here? Then we know that foreign countries interfered in the 2020 election including fraudulent ballots, fake IDs, compromised election machines, with China's hands all over it. This is just another piece of the overall puzzle and steal of the 2020 election.
9:41

Data pulled from the Georgia 2020 Election and 2 other states on election night showed impossible vote spikes all over 136,000 votes for Biden when the consecutive averages all throughout the night ranged from 2,000 votes to 45,124 votes at the highest in Georgia. Vote Spikes in Georgia at 1:34 am: 136,155 vote spike: 84% for Joe Biden. 18,788 vote spike: 98% for Joe Biden. 13,035 vote spike: 77% for Joe Biden. 9,385 vote spike: 100% for Joe Biden. Vote dumps contained an average of 49% for Biden in Georgia. Vote Spike in Michigan at 5:31 am: 141,258 votes for Biden: 94% 5,968 votes for Trump: 4% These similar spikes happened in Georgia at 1:34 am, and in Wisconsin at 3:42 am. Vote Spike in Wisconsin at 3:42 am: 143,379 votes for Biden: 85% 25,163 votes for Trump: 15% These vote spikes all favored Biden in highly abnormal, unrealistic percentages, some 98% to 100% for Biden, indicating fraud. The Secretary of State would not provide exact time stamped data when requested, which is concerning, considering they tell you that it's the most transparent election. This is called a cover up. Moving on, the ballot totes that contained ballots were all supposed to have red security tamper-proof tags on them. Pictures and witnesses exposed 9 ballot totes without these tags on them. These "totes" or "suitcases" are very similar to the ones that were hidden under the tables at the State Farm Arena incident where ballots were pulled out from tables without security tags on them and counted throughout the night until Joe Biden cleared the margin of victory needed. Were these the 9 unsecure "totes" placed and pulled out from under the tables that were separate from all of the other ballots after they placed under the skirted table and put into position for the steal? Finally, how does this all comes together, with these unsecure totes and with fraudulent ballots? Bernard Talmadge owns a company called the "Operations Group, Ardleigh Group," and possibly, "Block by Block." Bernard Talmadge is a known ballot harvester who has been caught in Indiana, charges were brought against him and people who were for him, but were then dropped, from a corrupt court. Checks were found in 2018 all made out for $75-$80 dollars, made out from the Operations Group, and sometimes, the Ardleigh Group. An investigative reporter from Florida named Tom Lauder who did an investigation, and in interviewing witnesses he found that people who worked for the Operations Group and the Ardleigh Group were paid $15 per hour to produce ballots. They had a quota of 10 per-hour, which works out to 1 every 6 minutes. If your running door-to-door in an apartment complex, there is no possible way to get 1 ballot or registration every 6 mins. So what's really going on here? let's proceed. According to the Federal Election Commission, his company has taken in $9.1 MILLION for "field operations." $9.1 million divided by the $75 and multiply it by 50 votes, that's enough money to produce around 6 MILLION ballots. A spreadsheet shown in this presentation shows all the people who gave this company money, what's fascinating is that 1/3 of the $9 MILLION dollars came from the MAINE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. The Maine Democratic Party didn't even take in $3 million dollars during the 2019-2020 election. The evidence of the checks used to pay people were then sent out for background information and analysis, over 400 of them. What was found and what was interesting is that, of the checks that were provided, 2 checks were exactly the same, but one was from a company called "Dreams Enterprises," and the other check comes from the "Ardleigh Group." The signatures on both the checks are exactly the same, the routing numbers are the same, and the account numbers are the same, which can be seen in the video above. So, what kind of illegal ballot producing money laundering operation do we really have going on here? Then we know that foreign countries interfered in the 2020 election including fraudulent ballots, fake IDs, compromised election machines, with China's hands all over it. This is just another piece of the overall puzzle and steal of the 2020 election.

The SCIF

22,799 views • 1 month ago

🇩🇪🔴Fact Check: German far-left leader claims most high-profile gang rape suspects are all White men. “Let’s start with gang rape. So the most prominent cases we know of are all white men. Epstein, gang rape, Gisele Pelicot in France, gang rape, all by white men,” said Jan van Aken, the co-leader of the German Left Party. His claims about Gisele Pelicot being “gang raped” by “all by white men” is rated as FALSE. According to analysis of names in the case, 12 have a Middle Eastern/North African names plus the 3 names associated with sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific Islands. This means 27.5% of the 51 suspects are likely non-White. Not only is this far from “all” the suspects, but Middle Eastern and North Africans are estimated to be only 10% of the French population, which means they were significantly overrepresented in the rape of Pelicot. Regarding Epstein, while the charges in the case are reprehensible, nobody has been specifically convicted of gang rape in the case. There are numerous allegations that Prince Andrew committed gang rape but his case remains under investigation. The case involving Sean Diddy Combs, while not as prominent as the Epstein affair, also involved numerous allegations of gang rape as well, all involving African American suspects. Van Aken further states: “Gang rape exists, it’s a huge problem. But to pretend that this is a migration problem, I would put a big question mark over that.” The German statistics paint an entirely different story. Germany-wide, approximately 50% of all gang rape arrests involve foreign nationals, which predominately come from non-White regions like North Africa, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan African countries. Going further, if we examine only high-profile gang rape cases in Germany, it is clear that non-White suspects dominate. Cologne New Year’s Eve 2015/16 Approximately 2,000 men participated in mass sexual assaults on over 1,200 women across multiple German cities. The perpetrators were predominantly men from North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) and the Middle East who had recently arrived as part of the 2015 migrant wave. Many of the women were forcibly gang raped by large crowds of non-White males. The scale of the attacks and the initial reluctance of police and media to report on them caused a massive political storm and directly led to Germany rewriting its sexual assault laws in 2016 Freiburg 2018 An 18-year-old woman was drugged inside a discotheque by a 22-year-old Syrian Kurd and then raped outside the building by a series of men. Eight perpetrators were convicted — seven Syrians and one German — while two additional men were convicted for failing to aid the victim. The case intensified the national debate over migration and deportation of criminal asylum seekers.The defendants comprised one German citizen, eight Syrians, two Algerians and one Iraqi. The main suspect, a 22-year-old Syrian Kurd, was already the subject of unenforced arrest warrants for other crimes at the time of the attack. Emma S., 2019 A 15-year-old girl was lured into bushes on a September night and raped by 11 men, two of whom also filmed the attack in September 2019. Two of the named perpetrators, Arsen K. and Fares L., filmed the attack. Based on available reporting the group was predominantly of migrant background, consistent with the broader Freiburg-area cases of that period. Hamburg Stadtpark, 2020 Nine men and boys gang-raped a 15-year-old girl in a Hamburg park over several hours in September 2020. All were under 20 at the time, meaning they were subject to juvenile law. Only one — an Iranian national who was 19 at the time — spent any time in jail. The case later made headlines again when a 20-year-old woman was sentenced to a weekend in jail for calling one of the rapists a “disgraceful rapist pig” on WhatsApp — a harsher punishment than most of the perpetrators received. All nine convicted men reportedly hailed from Afghanistan, Armenia, Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, Libya and Poland. Four of the defendants were German nationals, while four others held Armenian, Afghan, Kuwaiti and Montenegrin citizenship.. Only one, the Iranian national, received a prison sentence. Görlitzer Park, Berlin 2023 Three African men were charged with the rape, grievous bodily harm and aggravated robbery of a 27-year-old Georgian tourist. One of the suspects was a 21-year-old Somali man who had been traveling illegally in Germany since 2016 under eleven different identities. A second was a 22-year-old man from Guinea-Bissau said to have had four other identities and a criminal record across nine cases. Mallorca rape, 2023 In 2023, after the international media loudly trumpeted that five German men were arrested for raping an 18-year-old Spanish girl, it was quickly revealed that all of the men have a “migration background.” Nevertheless, the vast majority of news outlets referred to the men as “Germans” and most made no mention of the fact that the men had a migration background, with many outlets even referring to them as a “German pack.” While Spanish news outlet Ultima Hora reported that the 21- to 23-year-old suspects were of Turkish origin, much of the Spanish press was fixated on the “German” aspect of the crime, which the men allegedly filmed on their smartphones. Even the German press was quick to claim the men were Germans with no context, with Welt, one of the most popular conservative papers in the country, running the headline “Five German vacationers on Mallorca have to be remanded in custody.” At no point in the piece does Welt mention the migration background of the suspects. The same story was told throughout the international press, with Associated Press, Deutsche Welle, and the Daily Mail making no mention of the men’s migration background. Heinsberg, 2025 A 17-year-old girl was lured by her ex-boyfriend to an apartment where five Syrian men between 17 and 26 were waiting. She was raped while threatened with a Taser. A pistol was also found during the subsequent search. The investigation later expanded to three separate rape cases after more victims came forward. Dresden gang rape, 2025 Three Syrian men allegedly raped a 27-year-old woman on the hood of a car in Dresden, with one of the defendants subsequently complaining about being assigned a female interpreter during proceedings. Herford, 2024 In 2024, a drugged 18-year-old was raped by seven suspects inside a parked vehicle in a fast food restaurant car park. The suspects included two Iraqi nationals — considered the main suspects — one German-Syrian, and four others with German citizenship (migration background unknown). The two Iraqis were remanded in custody. Police investigated the use of knockout drugs administered to the girl inside a nearby dance hall before the attack. Berlin, 2026 Just days after van Aken's podcast interview, a case made national headlines after it was revealed that nine suspects sexually assaulted and even raped a Turkish-Kurdish schoolgirl at the Gropiusstadt youth centre in Neukölln. Nine boys of Arab descent took turns molesting the same girl in a back room while one boy stood guard in the doorway. Instead of going to the authorities, staff kept quiet, reportedly to avoid having the young people immediately labeled “typical Muslims.“ These are just a small sampling of cases involving foreign nationals and gang rape.
0:45

🇩🇪🔴Fact Check: German far-left leader claims most high-profile gang rape suspects are all White men. “Let’s start with gang rape. So the most prominent cases we know of are all white men. Epstein, gang rape, Gisele Pelicot in France, gang rape, all by white men,” said Jan van Aken, the co-leader of the German Left Party. His claims about Gisele Pelicot being “gang raped” by “all by white men” is rated as FALSE. According to analysis of names in the case, 12 have a Middle Eastern/North African names plus the 3 names associated with sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific Islands. This means 27.5% of the 51 suspects are likely non-White. Not only is this far from “all” the suspects, but Middle Eastern and North Africans are estimated to be only 10% of the French population, which means they were significantly overrepresented in the rape of Pelicot. Regarding Epstein, while the charges in the case are reprehensible, nobody has been specifically convicted of gang rape in the case. There are numerous allegations that Prince Andrew committed gang rape but his case remains under investigation. The case involving Sean Diddy Combs, while not as prominent as the Epstein affair, also involved numerous allegations of gang rape as well, all involving African American suspects. Van Aken further states: “Gang rape exists, it’s a huge problem. But to pretend that this is a migration problem, I would put a big question mark over that.” The German statistics paint an entirely different story. Germany-wide, approximately 50% of all gang rape arrests involve foreign nationals, which predominately come from non-White regions like North Africa, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan African countries. Going further, if we examine only high-profile gang rape cases in Germany, it is clear that non-White suspects dominate. Cologne New Year’s Eve 2015/16 Approximately 2,000 men participated in mass sexual assaults on over 1,200 women across multiple German cities. The perpetrators were predominantly men from North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) and the Middle East who had recently arrived as part of the 2015 migrant wave. Many of the women were forcibly gang raped by large crowds of non-White males. The scale of the attacks and the initial reluctance of police and media to report on them caused a massive political storm and directly led to Germany rewriting its sexual assault laws in 2016 Freiburg 2018 An 18-year-old woman was drugged inside a discotheque by a 22-year-old Syrian Kurd and then raped outside the building by a series of men. Eight perpetrators were convicted — seven Syrians and one German — while two additional men were convicted for failing to aid the victim. The case intensified the national debate over migration and deportation of criminal asylum seekers.The defendants comprised one German citizen, eight Syrians, two Algerians and one Iraqi. The main suspect, a 22-year-old Syrian Kurd, was already the subject of unenforced arrest warrants for other crimes at the time of the attack. Emma S., 2019 A 15-year-old girl was lured into bushes on a September night and raped by 11 men, two of whom also filmed the attack in September 2019. Two of the named perpetrators, Arsen K. and Fares L., filmed the attack. Based on available reporting the group was predominantly of migrant background, consistent with the broader Freiburg-area cases of that period. Hamburg Stadtpark, 2020 Nine men and boys gang-raped a 15-year-old girl in a Hamburg park over several hours in September 2020. All were under 20 at the time, meaning they were subject to juvenile law. Only one — an Iranian national who was 19 at the time — spent any time in jail. The case later made headlines again when a 20-year-old woman was sentenced to a weekend in jail for calling one of the rapists a “disgraceful rapist pig” on WhatsApp — a harsher punishment than most of the perpetrators received. All nine convicted men reportedly hailed from Afghanistan, Armenia, Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, Libya and Poland. Four of the defendants were German nationals, while four others held Armenian, Afghan, Kuwaiti and Montenegrin citizenship.. Only one, the Iranian national, received a prison sentence. Görlitzer Park, Berlin 2023 Three African men were charged with the rape, grievous bodily harm and aggravated robbery of a 27-year-old Georgian tourist. One of the suspects was a 21-year-old Somali man who had been traveling illegally in Germany since 2016 under eleven different identities. A second was a 22-year-old man from Guinea-Bissau said to have had four other identities and a criminal record across nine cases. Mallorca rape, 2023 In 2023, after the international media loudly trumpeted that five German men were arrested for raping an 18-year-old Spanish girl, it was quickly revealed that all of the men have a “migration background.” Nevertheless, the vast majority of news outlets referred to the men as “Germans” and most made no mention of the fact that the men had a migration background, with many outlets even referring to them as a “German pack.” While Spanish news outlet Ultima Hora reported that the 21- to 23-year-old suspects were of Turkish origin, much of the Spanish press was fixated on the “German” aspect of the crime, which the men allegedly filmed on their smartphones. Even the German press was quick to claim the men were Germans with no context, with Welt, one of the most popular conservative papers in the country, running the headline “Five German vacationers on Mallorca have to be remanded in custody.” At no point in the piece does Welt mention the migration background of the suspects. The same story was told throughout the international press, with Associated Press, Deutsche Welle, and the Daily Mail making no mention of the men’s migration background. Heinsberg, 2025 A 17-year-old girl was lured by her ex-boyfriend to an apartment where five Syrian men between 17 and 26 were waiting. She was raped while threatened with a Taser. A pistol was also found during the subsequent search. The investigation later expanded to three separate rape cases after more victims came forward. Dresden gang rape, 2025 Three Syrian men allegedly raped a 27-year-old woman on the hood of a car in Dresden, with one of the defendants subsequently complaining about being assigned a female interpreter during proceedings. Herford, 2024 In 2024, a drugged 18-year-old was raped by seven suspects inside a parked vehicle in a fast food restaurant car park. The suspects included two Iraqi nationals — considered the main suspects — one German-Syrian, and four others with German citizenship (migration background unknown). The two Iraqis were remanded in custody. Police investigated the use of knockout drugs administered to the girl inside a nearby dance hall before the attack. Berlin, 2026 Just days after van Aken's podcast interview, a case made national headlines after it was revealed that nine suspects sexually assaulted and even raped a Turkish-Kurdish schoolgirl at the Gropiusstadt youth centre in Neukölln. Nine boys of Arab descent took turns molesting the same girl in a back room while one boy stood guard in the doorway. Instead of going to the authorities, staff kept quiet, reportedly to avoid having the young people immediately labeled “typical Muslims.“ These are just a small sampling of cases involving foreign nationals and gang rape.

Remix News & Views

117,456 views • 5 months ago

Ray Dalio just released 500 years of data showing exactly how empires collapse. His conclusion? America is in Stage 6 of 9. The dangerous stage. Here's what his math actually says about where we're headed: Dalio studied every major empire collapse since 1500. Dutch. British. American. The pattern repeats with machine-like precision every 50-100 years. Not because of politics or ideology. Because of math. The "Big Debt Cycle" has nine stages. We're currently in Stage 6. The dangerous one. Here's how it works: Stages 1-4: The Rise Countries borrow to build infrastructure. Debt is productive. GDP grows faster than debt service costs. Everything feels sustainable. This was the U.S. from 1945-2000. Low debt-to-GDP. Strong productivity growth. Borrowing made sense. Stage 5: The Top Debt service hits 15-20% of GDP. Interest costs start crowding out productive spending. But everyone's too comfortable to notice. Markets boom. Wealth gaps explode. The U.S. crossed this threshold around 2008. Stage 6: The Crisis This is where we are now. Federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP. Two choices: Let interest rates rise and crash the economy. Or print money and create inflation. Both destroy wealth. Just differently. In the 1930s, we chose deflation. In 2008, we chose money printing. In 2026, we're doing both at the same time. Stages 7-9: The Reset Either massive restructuring through negotiation. Or war. History shows wars resolve 90% of these cycles. Not because humans are violent. Because debts become mathematically impossible to service. Dalio's data is clear: When internal inequality peaks AND external rivals emerge, conflicts become inevitable. The U.S. has both right now. Wealth inequality hasn't been this high since 1929. China's GDP grew 6-8% annually while we borrowed to maintain consumption. Dalio's advice for Stage 6 is simple: Sell debt. Buy gold. Not because gold produces anything. Because governments print money to escape debt traps. Gold has risen 3x since 2020. Exactly as the model predicted. But here's what actually matters for regular investors: You can't stop the Big Cycle. But you can position for it. Dalio's framework identifies five big forces that drive every transition: 1. Productivity growth 2. Debt cycles 3. Money supply 4. Wealth gaps 5. Geopolitical power shifts When all five align in the same direction, the cycle turns. Right now, all five are pointing toward Stage 7. Productivity growth is slowing. Debt service costs are rising faster than GDP. Money supply expanded 40% since 2020. Wealth concentration is at century highs. China is building parallel financial infrastructure. The math doesn't lie. So what does positioning actually look like? Dalio's research across 500 years shows three consistent patterns: Pattern 1: Fiat currencies lose value during Stage 6-7 transitions Every time. No exceptions. Governments print to escape debt traps. The dollar, pound, and euro all follow the same path. This is why gold and hard assets outperform during these periods. Pattern 2: Geographic diversification matters more than asset class diversification When one empire declines, another rises. Dutch to British. British to American. The cycle doesn't end. It relocates. Portfolios concentrated in declining empires get crushed. Pattern 3: Volatility spikes 3-5x during Stage 6 The 1930s saw 50%+ market swings. The 1970s stagflation created wild inflation volatility. 2008-2009 saw daily 5% moves. Stage 6 isn't calm. It's chaos punctuated by brief stability. Here's the data that should terrify you: U.S. debt-to-GDP: 120% (highest since WWII) Annual interest costs: approaching $1 trillion China's GDP growth: 6-8% while U.S. averages 2-3% Time between 1929 inequality peak and crash: 8 months Time since current inequality peak: We're in it now
4:52

Ray Dalio just released 500 years of data showing exactly how empires collapse. His conclusion? America is in Stage 6 of 9. The dangerous stage. Here's what his math actually says about where we're headed: Dalio studied every major empire collapse since 1500. Dutch. British. American. The pattern repeats with machine-like precision every 50-100 years. Not because of politics or ideology. Because of math. The "Big Debt Cycle" has nine stages. We're currently in Stage 6. The dangerous one. Here's how it works: Stages 1-4: The Rise Countries borrow to build infrastructure. Debt is productive. GDP grows faster than debt service costs. Everything feels sustainable. This was the U.S. from 1945-2000. Low debt-to-GDP. Strong productivity growth. Borrowing made sense. Stage 5: The Top Debt service hits 15-20% of GDP. Interest costs start crowding out productive spending. But everyone's too comfortable to notice. Markets boom. Wealth gaps explode. The U.S. crossed this threshold around 2008. Stage 6: The Crisis This is where we are now. Federal debt exceeds 120% of GDP. Two choices: Let interest rates rise and crash the economy. Or print money and create inflation. Both destroy wealth. Just differently. In the 1930s, we chose deflation. In 2008, we chose money printing. In 2026, we're doing both at the same time. Stages 7-9: The Reset Either massive restructuring through negotiation. Or war. History shows wars resolve 90% of these cycles. Not because humans are violent. Because debts become mathematically impossible to service. Dalio's data is clear: When internal inequality peaks AND external rivals emerge, conflicts become inevitable. The U.S. has both right now. Wealth inequality hasn't been this high since 1929. China's GDP grew 6-8% annually while we borrowed to maintain consumption. Dalio's advice for Stage 6 is simple: Sell debt. Buy gold. Not because gold produces anything. Because governments print money to escape debt traps. Gold has risen 3x since 2020. Exactly as the model predicted. But here's what actually matters for regular investors: You can't stop the Big Cycle. But you can position for it. Dalio's framework identifies five big forces that drive every transition: 1. Productivity growth 2. Debt cycles 3. Money supply 4. Wealth gaps 5. Geopolitical power shifts When all five align in the same direction, the cycle turns. Right now, all five are pointing toward Stage 7. Productivity growth is slowing. Debt service costs are rising faster than GDP. Money supply expanded 40% since 2020. Wealth concentration is at century highs. China is building parallel financial infrastructure. The math doesn't lie. So what does positioning actually look like? Dalio's research across 500 years shows three consistent patterns: Pattern 1: Fiat currencies lose value during Stage 6-7 transitions Every time. No exceptions. Governments print to escape debt traps. The dollar, pound, and euro all follow the same path. This is why gold and hard assets outperform during these periods. Pattern 2: Geographic diversification matters more than asset class diversification When one empire declines, another rises. Dutch to British. British to American. The cycle doesn't end. It relocates. Portfolios concentrated in declining empires get crushed. Pattern 3: Volatility spikes 3-5x during Stage 6 The 1930s saw 50%+ market swings. The 1970s stagflation created wild inflation volatility. 2008-2009 saw daily 5% moves. Stage 6 isn't calm. It's chaos punctuated by brief stability. Here's the data that should terrify you: U.S. debt-to-GDP: 120% (highest since WWII) Annual interest costs: approaching $1 trillion China's GDP growth: 6-8% while U.S. averages 2-3% Time between 1929 inequality peak and crash: 8 months Time since current inequality peak: We're in it now

Logan Weaver

1,072,088 views • 6 months ago

"Mark this day on your calendar: 11/18/25 - the day the entire online world surrounding Karen Read, John O’Keefe, Turtleboy, Lindsey Gaetani, Brian Tully, Michael Proctor, Yuri Bukhenik, and the Norfolk DA went straight to hell in a handbasket. Kate Peter and Leigha “Bathtub” Genduso have taken center stage in the remaining Aidan “Turtleboy” Kearney cases, and Lindsey Gaetani is on an absolute wrecking path. Look at that: Kate Peter had ex parte contact with one of the special prosecutors working for the Norfolk DA, and now there's a record of it. Kate's Discord server might not survive. She's got a November 25 hearing on her open felony charges where the issue is the Norfolk DA's conflict because of their contact with Kate Peter." To understand why PI Kate Peter and all her Discord operatives are losing their collective minds on social media right now, the answer is this recent filing from Aidan TurtleBoy Kearney; In short, Kate had ex parte contact with the DA's office (and Lindsey Gaetani can prove it). TRASNCRIPT: In the past week, the defense—that's the Aidan Kearney defense—has obtained five items of favorable and discoverable evidence which should have been, but were not, disclosed to us by the Commonwealth. Two of the discoverable items originated from civilian witness Lindsey Gaetani. First, there's an audio recording where Leigha Genduso texted her on December 11, 2023, which Ms. Gaetani posted online on November 9, 2025. And second, an email from Kate Peter to special prosecutor Kenneth Mello dated February 14, 2024, which Kate Peter forwarded to Lindsey Gaetani on February 22, 2024, and Lindsey then forwarded to the defense on November 11, 2025. Oh hey, Leigha Genduso, you made it into a court filing! God bless America! Look at that, ladies and gentlemen—Leigha Genduso is in the Aidan “Turtleboy” Kearney case. She's going to be so pleased. I have to do a tweet about this. I'm posting about this right now. Ladies and gentlemen, hold on—how do I phrase this? Kate Peter's Discord server is going to lose their ever-loving minds. Leigha Genduso has made her appearance in the Aidan Turtleboy Kearney case, and it is glorious. Who hid that recording from the defense? God bless the United States of America. I should join the defense bar—I think I'm going to do it. Oh, Adam Deitch just announced he's running for Norfolk DA, by the way—the guy from the federal investigation into John O'Keefe's death. God bless us all. How do you even spell Genduso? G-E-N-D-U-S-O. Can I call her Leigha Bathtub Genduso? I feel like that's reasonable. Lindsey's trying to make that a thing, and I think it should be a thing. Leigha Bathtub Genduso has made her appearance, and Bossy Texas Chicken Bella are listening with all their towel ears. Here we go—let's do it. Oh, Kate Peter's in there too. God bless America. This is a glorious day. Listen, listen—now I know my Towel Mom best. I'll take the slings and arrows. This is freaking amazing. About time. Goddamn Kate Peter and Leigha Genduso—goddamn little towels. They're not towels; they're anti-towels. Is there such a thing as an anti-towel? If there is, it's Kate Peter. We thought maybe it was other people—it was Kate Peter all along. She's an anti-towel. Yes, it is glorious. Kate Peter and Leigha Bathtub Genduso have taken center stage in the remaining Aidan Turtleboy Kearney cases, and Lindsey Gaetani is on a wrecking path. Somebody check on Kate's Discord server—it's probably chaos. I'm hilarious, you've got to admit. I'm endearing and hilarious. Who else just narrates writing their Twitter posts as they write them? It's very meta, you know what I'm saying? I can't take forever with this though—I have to be somewhat of an erudite and informed little towel. We've got to continue. I'm tagging Lindsey because she's a little towel. You're a little towel. I'm clearly overly excited. Wow, it's all happening at the same time. What a day. God bless these United States of America. I'm never going to get to eat if all this keeps happening—I'm just running in circles. Look at that—Kate Peter had ex parte contact with one of the special prosecutors working for the Norfolk DA, and now there's a record of it. Kate's Discord server might not survive. She's got a November 25 hearing on her open felony charges where the issue is the Norfolk DA's conflict because of their contact with Kate Peter. Mark this day on your calendar, ladies and gentlemen: November 18, 2025—the day the online world related to Karen Read, John O'Keefe, Turtleboy, Lindsey Gaetani, Brian Tully, Michael Proctor, Yuri Bukhenik, the Norfolk DA, and everything else all went to hell in a handbasket. Their worlds have imploded. Kate Peter had direct ex parte contact with members of the Norfolk DA's office, and there is now evidence in the hands of Aidan Turtleboy Kearney. This could be huge for Kate's November 25 hearing where her relationship to the DA's office is at issue. The revenge of Lindsey Gaetani. Lindsey Gaetani will be a prosecution and defense trial witness. She voluntarily cooperated with the prosecution against Mr. Kearney from December 2023 until approximately September 2025. During that period, she met and spoke with Detective Lieutenant Brian Tully, Mr. Mello, and Mr. Cosgrove. Her direct contact with Mr. Mello and Detective Lieutenant Tully resulted in Mr. Mello being disqualified from a now-dismissed 2024 case because his interactions with her made him a material defense witness. On December 14, 2023, she was interviewed by Detective Lieutenant Tully and Mr. Mello's investigator. On December 22, 2023, she was summoned to testify before the grand jury. In January 2024, she voluntarily provided her cell phone to Detective Lieutenant Tully for the MSP to prepare an extraction report, under a promise by Ken Mello and Tully that it would be redacted. On January 22, 2024, Detective Lieutenant Tully applied for a search warrant to seize Karen Read's cell phones. Information from Ms. Gaetani served as a substantial source of the probable cause in Tully's affidavit—paragraphs 72 to 89, I'd say a good 12 to 15 paragraphs dedicated to her. Mr. Cosgrove is currently seeking to search Ms. Read's phones in anticipation of seeking an indictment against her and Mr. Kearney for conspiracy to commit witness intimidation. What the fuck? That's it. I'm just trying to eat my fucking lunch, and now this? Aiden Turtleboy Kearney's lawyers have confirmed in a bombshell filing that special prosecutor Robert Cosgrove is aiming to search Karen Read's phones for the purpose of criminally indicting Kearney and Read. This is outrageous. They were never going to really charge Kearney—it was all to get to Karen. I told you! Somebody get me a soapbox! Peep Bunny Towel! Peep Bunny Towel! Peep Bunny Towel! [Peep Bunny Towel squeaking in the background] I woke him up very rudely. I'm sorry, Peep—I'll give you food in a second. I am having a day! This has been a ridiculous fucking day. First I just wanted to cover a regulatory hearing, and now I'm forced to use my comfort Peep Bunny Towel because there have been so many developments. First Brian Walsh pleading guilty to two charges but going to trial on first-degree murder, then Karen Read announcing she's suing basically the entire town of Canton, then the 46-page filing, then the Farwell filing, then down the rabbit hole on the sealed affidavit—and now all hell is breaking loose. Leigha Genduso and Kate Peter are probably running around like chickens with their heads cut off, and the reason Cosgrove and Tully were seizing Karen's phones all the way back in January 2024 was because their plan was to charge Karen and Aidan together. Ladies and gentlemen, someone get my broom—I don't even know what to say anymore. This is outrageous. I'm joining the defense bar. I've had enough prosecutorial misconduct. I'm done. On February 1 and 22, 2024, Ms. Gaetani testified before a grand jury that returned indictments against her. In June 2025, Mr. Cosgrove called her as a prosecution witness against herself in a district court trial, and she was acquitted of all charges notwithstanding her own testimony. In the past few months, Ms. Gaetani has publicly accused numerous prosecution witnesses and sources—including Kate Peter, Leigha Genduso, Detective Lieutenant Tully, and Jen McCabe—of assorted misconduct that adversely impacts their credibility. On September 5, 2025, she sued Mr. Cosgrove and Detective Lieutenant Tully for intentional infliction of emotional distress and interfering with her rights by threat, intimidation, or coercion. That same day she served notice of intent to sue the Norfolk DA. As a result of her civil complaint against him, Mr. Cosgrove voluntarily withdrew from the 2024 case, recognizing the obvious conflict when a prosecutor is sued for intentionally harming a witness in a case he is prosecuting. Thank you, Peep Bunny Towel—this is a day if I've ever seen a day. I'll go back to reading the document. I mean, how do you even make sense of this? There's like 70,000 words, Peep Bunny Towel is in it, it won't stop—it's just more and more and more. Thank you, Peep Bunny Towel. All right, he says I can get through it. Let's do it. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a day. This is a day if I've ever seen a day. Let me tell you right now—this is a day. On February 1st and 22nd of 2024, Ms. Gaetani testified before a grand jury that returned indictments against Ms. Gaetani. In June of 2025, Ms. Gaetani was called by Mr. Cosgrove as a prosecution witness against Ms. Gaetani in a district court trial. Notwithstanding Ms. Gaetani's own testimony, Ms. Gaetani was acquitted of all charges. In the past few months, Ms. Gaetani has publicly accused numerous prosecution witnesses and sources—including Ms. Peter, Ms. Genduso, Detective Lieutenant Tully, and Jen McCabe—of assorted misconduct or other issues that adversely impact their credibility. See Bederow/Yannetti's October 2nd filing, paragraphs 90 through 98. On September 5th, 2025, Ms. Gaetani sued Mr. Cosgrove and Detective Lieutenant Tully for, among other things, intentional infliction of emotional distress and interfering with her rights by threat, intimidation, or coercion. I think that had to do with the release of one specific report—it wasn't about her phone; it was about a report on something that's very intense. That same day, Ms. Gaetani also served notice of her intent to sue the Norfolk DA because of the harm Mr. Cosgrove and Det. Lt. Tully allegedly caused her. I'm still not totally sure where he's getting that from—I went to the docket, I read the filing, and I still don't fully understand what he's referring to there. Maybe he's reading something I'm not. I don't know. And finally, point 13: As a result of Ms. Gaetani's civil complaint against him, Mr. Cosgrove voluntarily withdrew from the prosecution of the now-dismissed 2024 case because he, quote, “recognized the obvious conflict created by circumstances where a prosecutor is sued for intentionally harming a witness in a case where he is prosecuting.”
16:45

"Mark this day on your calendar: 11/18/25 - the day the entire online world surrounding Karen Read, John O’Keefe, Turtleboy, Lindsey Gaetani, Brian Tully, Michael Proctor, Yuri Bukhenik, and the Norfolk DA went straight to hell in a handbasket. Kate Peter and Leigha “Bathtub” Genduso have taken center stage in the remaining Aidan “Turtleboy” Kearney cases, and Lindsey Gaetani is on an absolute wrecking path. Look at that: Kate Peter had ex parte contact with one of the special prosecutors working for the Norfolk DA, and now there's a record of it. Kate's Discord server might not survive. She's got a November 25 hearing on her open felony charges where the issue is the Norfolk DA's conflict because of their contact with Kate Peter." To understand why PI Kate Peter and all her Discord operatives are losing their collective minds on social media right now, the answer is this recent filing from Aidan TurtleBoy Kearney; In short, Kate had ex parte contact with the DA's office (and Lindsey Gaetani can prove it). TRASNCRIPT: In the past week, the defense—that's the Aidan Kearney defense—has obtained five items of favorable and discoverable evidence which should have been, but were not, disclosed to us by the Commonwealth. Two of the discoverable items originated from civilian witness Lindsey Gaetani. First, there's an audio recording where Leigha Genduso texted her on December 11, 2023, which Ms. Gaetani posted online on November 9, 2025. And second, an email from Kate Peter to special prosecutor Kenneth Mello dated February 14, 2024, which Kate Peter forwarded to Lindsey Gaetani on February 22, 2024, and Lindsey then forwarded to the defense on November 11, 2025. Oh hey, Leigha Genduso, you made it into a court filing! God bless America! Look at that, ladies and gentlemen—Leigha Genduso is in the Aidan “Turtleboy” Kearney case. She's going to be so pleased. I have to do a tweet about this. I'm posting about this right now. Ladies and gentlemen, hold on—how do I phrase this? Kate Peter's Discord server is going to lose their ever-loving minds. Leigha Genduso has made her appearance in the Aidan Turtleboy Kearney case, and it is glorious. Who hid that recording from the defense? God bless the United States of America. I should join the defense bar—I think I'm going to do it. Oh, Adam Deitch just announced he's running for Norfolk DA, by the way—the guy from the federal investigation into John O'Keefe's death. God bless us all. How do you even spell Genduso? G-E-N-D-U-S-O. Can I call her Leigha Bathtub Genduso? I feel like that's reasonable. Lindsey's trying to make that a thing, and I think it should be a thing. Leigha Bathtub Genduso has made her appearance, and Bossy Texas Chicken Bella are listening with all their towel ears. Here we go—let's do it. Oh, Kate Peter's in there too. God bless America. This is a glorious day. Listen, listen—now I know my Towel Mom best. I'll take the slings and arrows. This is freaking amazing. About time. Goddamn Kate Peter and Leigha Genduso—goddamn little towels. They're not towels; they're anti-towels. Is there such a thing as an anti-towel? If there is, it's Kate Peter. We thought maybe it was other people—it was Kate Peter all along. She's an anti-towel. Yes, it is glorious. Kate Peter and Leigha Bathtub Genduso have taken center stage in the remaining Aidan Turtleboy Kearney cases, and Lindsey Gaetani is on a wrecking path. Somebody check on Kate's Discord server—it's probably chaos. I'm hilarious, you've got to admit. I'm endearing and hilarious. Who else just narrates writing their Twitter posts as they write them? It's very meta, you know what I'm saying? I can't take forever with this though—I have to be somewhat of an erudite and informed little towel. We've got to continue. I'm tagging Lindsey because she's a little towel. You're a little towel. I'm clearly overly excited. Wow, it's all happening at the same time. What a day. God bless these United States of America. I'm never going to get to eat if all this keeps happening—I'm just running in circles. Look at that—Kate Peter had ex parte contact with one of the special prosecutors working for the Norfolk DA, and now there's a record of it. Kate's Discord server might not survive. She's got a November 25 hearing on her open felony charges where the issue is the Norfolk DA's conflict because of their contact with Kate Peter. Mark this day on your calendar, ladies and gentlemen: November 18, 2025—the day the online world related to Karen Read, John O'Keefe, Turtleboy, Lindsey Gaetani, Brian Tully, Michael Proctor, Yuri Bukhenik, the Norfolk DA, and everything else all went to hell in a handbasket. Their worlds have imploded. Kate Peter had direct ex parte contact with members of the Norfolk DA's office, and there is now evidence in the hands of Aidan Turtleboy Kearney. This could be huge for Kate's November 25 hearing where her relationship to the DA's office is at issue. The revenge of Lindsey Gaetani. Lindsey Gaetani will be a prosecution and defense trial witness. She voluntarily cooperated with the prosecution against Mr. Kearney from December 2023 until approximately September 2025. During that period, she met and spoke with Detective Lieutenant Brian Tully, Mr. Mello, and Mr. Cosgrove. Her direct contact with Mr. Mello and Detective Lieutenant Tully resulted in Mr. Mello being disqualified from a now-dismissed 2024 case because his interactions with her made him a material defense witness. On December 14, 2023, she was interviewed by Detective Lieutenant Tully and Mr. Mello's investigator. On December 22, 2023, she was summoned to testify before the grand jury. In January 2024, she voluntarily provided her cell phone to Detective Lieutenant Tully for the MSP to prepare an extraction report, under a promise by Ken Mello and Tully that it would be redacted. On January 22, 2024, Detective Lieutenant Tully applied for a search warrant to seize Karen Read's cell phones. Information from Ms. Gaetani served as a substantial source of the probable cause in Tully's affidavit—paragraphs 72 to 89, I'd say a good 12 to 15 paragraphs dedicated to her. Mr. Cosgrove is currently seeking to search Ms. Read's phones in anticipation of seeking an indictment against her and Mr. Kearney for conspiracy to commit witness intimidation. What the fuck? That's it. I'm just trying to eat my fucking lunch, and now this? Aiden Turtleboy Kearney's lawyers have confirmed in a bombshell filing that special prosecutor Robert Cosgrove is aiming to search Karen Read's phones for the purpose of criminally indicting Kearney and Read. This is outrageous. They were never going to really charge Kearney—it was all to get to Karen. I told you! Somebody get me a soapbox! Peep Bunny Towel! Peep Bunny Towel! Peep Bunny Towel! [Peep Bunny Towel squeaking in the background] I woke him up very rudely. I'm sorry, Peep—I'll give you food in a second. I am having a day! This has been a ridiculous fucking day. First I just wanted to cover a regulatory hearing, and now I'm forced to use my comfort Peep Bunny Towel because there have been so many developments. First Brian Walsh pleading guilty to two charges but going to trial on first-degree murder, then Karen Read announcing she's suing basically the entire town of Canton, then the 46-page filing, then the Farwell filing, then down the rabbit hole on the sealed affidavit—and now all hell is breaking loose. Leigha Genduso and Kate Peter are probably running around like chickens with their heads cut off, and the reason Cosgrove and Tully were seizing Karen's phones all the way back in January 2024 was because their plan was to charge Karen and Aidan together. Ladies and gentlemen, someone get my broom—I don't even know what to say anymore. This is outrageous. I'm joining the defense bar. I've had enough prosecutorial misconduct. I'm done. On February 1 and 22, 2024, Ms. Gaetani testified before a grand jury that returned indictments against her. In June 2025, Mr. Cosgrove called her as a prosecution witness against herself in a district court trial, and she was acquitted of all charges notwithstanding her own testimony. In the past few months, Ms. Gaetani has publicly accused numerous prosecution witnesses and sources—including Kate Peter, Leigha Genduso, Detective Lieutenant Tully, and Jen McCabe—of assorted misconduct that adversely impacts their credibility. On September 5, 2025, she sued Mr. Cosgrove and Detective Lieutenant Tully for intentional infliction of emotional distress and interfering with her rights by threat, intimidation, or coercion. That same day she served notice of intent to sue the Norfolk DA. As a result of her civil complaint against him, Mr. Cosgrove voluntarily withdrew from the 2024 case, recognizing the obvious conflict when a prosecutor is sued for intentionally harming a witness in a case he is prosecuting. Thank you, Peep Bunny Towel—this is a day if I've ever seen a day. I'll go back to reading the document. I mean, how do you even make sense of this? There's like 70,000 words, Peep Bunny Towel is in it, it won't stop—it's just more and more and more. Thank you, Peep Bunny Towel. All right, he says I can get through it. Let's do it. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a day. This is a day if I've ever seen a day. Let me tell you right now—this is a day. On February 1st and 22nd of 2024, Ms. Gaetani testified before a grand jury that returned indictments against Ms. Gaetani. In June of 2025, Ms. Gaetani was called by Mr. Cosgrove as a prosecution witness against Ms. Gaetani in a district court trial. Notwithstanding Ms. Gaetani's own testimony, Ms. Gaetani was acquitted of all charges. In the past few months, Ms. Gaetani has publicly accused numerous prosecution witnesses and sources—including Ms. Peter, Ms. Genduso, Detective Lieutenant Tully, and Jen McCabe—of assorted misconduct or other issues that adversely impact their credibility. See Bederow/Yannetti's October 2nd filing, paragraphs 90 through 98. On September 5th, 2025, Ms. Gaetani sued Mr. Cosgrove and Detective Lieutenant Tully for, among other things, intentional infliction of emotional distress and interfering with her rights by threat, intimidation, or coercion. I think that had to do with the release of one specific report—it wasn't about her phone; it was about a report on something that's very intense. That same day, Ms. Gaetani also served notice of her intent to sue the Norfolk DA because of the harm Mr. Cosgrove and Det. Lt. Tully allegedly caused her. I'm still not totally sure where he's getting that from—I went to the docket, I read the filing, and I still don't fully understand what he's referring to there. Maybe he's reading something I'm not. I don't know. And finally, point 13: As a result of Ms. Gaetani's civil complaint against him, Mr. Cosgrove voluntarily withdrew from the prosecution of the now-dismissed 2024 case because he, quote, “recognized the obvious conflict created by circumstances where a prosecutor is sued for intentionally harming a witness in a case where he is prosecuting.”

Grant Smith Ellis

22,026 views • 9 months ago

1B Tanner Thach (UNCW Baseball) is another college bat to keep close tabs on this season. Thach was drafted by the Giants in the 18th round of the 2022 draft but decided to honor his commitment to the Seahawks. Thach made a significant impact in his first year on campus and posted a .290/.356/.544 slash line with 11 2B, 15 HR—a UNCW single-season freshman record—and 68 RBIs. He outdid himself in 2024 and hit .324/.406/.700 with 11 2B, a UNCW single-season record 27 HR and 75 RBIs in 61 games. Thach’s production didn’t end there, though, as he was named a Cape League all-star, hitting .275/.367/.493 with 6 doubles, 8 HR and 25 RBIs. Thach has a strong, physical build at 6’4” and 220-lbs. He has a crouched stance in the box with an open front side and a medium-high handset. It’s a bit of a noisy load in which he drops and drifts his hands, but Thach does possess plenty of bat speed. He has a steep, uphill swing path, and it’s a violent operation that is geared towards getting the ball up in the air and doing damage. However, it can get long at times. Thach’s carrying tool is undoubtedly his immense power. He has established a now-lengthy track record of power production with both metal and wood, and he has zero issue tapping into it on a game-to-game basis. Thach has home run power to all fields, though his highest quality of contact comes to the pull side. He gets the ball up in the air on a consistent basis, and when he catches the baseball on the sweet spot, it flies. Thach posted maximum exit velocities during the spring and summer of 113.5 mph and 103.1 mph, respectively. At the start of the summer, he would sometimes unnecessarily sell out to get to his power which caused him to top-spin line drives to the pull side, but as the season progressed he was able to break that habit. Thach has plus in-game power to all fields. The biggest key going forward for Thach is for him to continue to make enough contact to get to his power on a regular basis. His bat-to-ball skills are fringy, though he did post a 90% in-zone contact rate against all fastballs. Like a lot of hitters, the root of Thach’s contact struggles are secondary offerings. He’ll have difficulty at times picking up spin out of the hand which leads to both miss and chase. Thach will also tend to whiff and chase against heaters that are either elevated or on the outer-half of the plate. However, he does handle velocity well and last season he hit .533/.588/1.033 against all fastballs 92+. While Thach feasts on righthanded pitching, he hit just .246/.321/.551 last season against lefties. Thach’s power is tremendous, but he’ll need to add a coat or two of polish to his hit-ability as he transitions into professional baseball. First base isn’t the flashiest defensive profile, but Thach moves well around the bag and is a strong athlete at the position. He’s not afraid to range into the four-hole and he is a reassuring anchor on the right side of the infield. Thach has an advanced baseball sense, a trait that shines on a game-to-game basis. While he won’t pitch professionally, expect Thach to log some innings this spring for UNCW. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and flashes some hop in the top of the zone, but he’ll also mix in a mid-70s curveball and a low-80s changeup. The cherry on top with Thach is his makeup, both on and off the field. It’s impossible to stick a grade on it because it’s a 90 on the 20-80 scale. Would have him as a 2nd-early 3rd round type this July. (🎥: UNCW Baseball, Cotuit Kettleers)
0:36

1B Tanner Thach (UNCW Baseball) is another college bat to keep close tabs on this season. Thach was drafted by the Giants in the 18th round of the 2022 draft but decided to honor his commitment to the Seahawks. Thach made a significant impact in his first year on campus and posted a .290/.356/.544 slash line with 11 2B, 15 HR—a UNCW single-season freshman record—and 68 RBIs. He outdid himself in 2024 and hit .324/.406/.700 with 11 2B, a UNCW single-season record 27 HR and 75 RBIs in 61 games. Thach’s production didn’t end there, though, as he was named a Cape League all-star, hitting .275/.367/.493 with 6 doubles, 8 HR and 25 RBIs. Thach has a strong, physical build at 6’4” and 220-lbs. He has a crouched stance in the box with an open front side and a medium-high handset. It’s a bit of a noisy load in which he drops and drifts his hands, but Thach does possess plenty of bat speed. He has a steep, uphill swing path, and it’s a violent operation that is geared towards getting the ball up in the air and doing damage. However, it can get long at times. Thach’s carrying tool is undoubtedly his immense power. He has established a now-lengthy track record of power production with both metal and wood, and he has zero issue tapping into it on a game-to-game basis. Thach has home run power to all fields, though his highest quality of contact comes to the pull side. He gets the ball up in the air on a consistent basis, and when he catches the baseball on the sweet spot, it flies. Thach posted maximum exit velocities during the spring and summer of 113.5 mph and 103.1 mph, respectively. At the start of the summer, he would sometimes unnecessarily sell out to get to his power which caused him to top-spin line drives to the pull side, but as the season progressed he was able to break that habit. Thach has plus in-game power to all fields. The biggest key going forward for Thach is for him to continue to make enough contact to get to his power on a regular basis. His bat-to-ball skills are fringy, though he did post a 90% in-zone contact rate against all fastballs. Like a lot of hitters, the root of Thach’s contact struggles are secondary offerings. He’ll have difficulty at times picking up spin out of the hand which leads to both miss and chase. Thach will also tend to whiff and chase against heaters that are either elevated or on the outer-half of the plate. However, he does handle velocity well and last season he hit .533/.588/1.033 against all fastballs 92+. While Thach feasts on righthanded pitching, he hit just .246/.321/.551 last season against lefties. Thach’s power is tremendous, but he’ll need to add a coat or two of polish to his hit-ability as he transitions into professional baseball. First base isn’t the flashiest defensive profile, but Thach moves well around the bag and is a strong athlete at the position. He’s not afraid to range into the four-hole and he is a reassuring anchor on the right side of the infield. Thach has an advanced baseball sense, a trait that shines on a game-to-game basis. While he won’t pitch professionally, expect Thach to log some innings this spring for UNCW. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and flashes some hop in the top of the zone, but he’ll also mix in a mid-70s curveball and a low-80s changeup. The cherry on top with Thach is his makeup, both on and off the field. It’s impossible to stick a grade on it because it’s a 90 on the 20-80 scale. Would have him as a 2nd-early 3rd round type this July. (🎥: UNCW Baseball, Cotuit Kettleers)

Peter Flaherty III

42,659 views • 1 year ago

Summer Holiday Photos Place the UAE-Backed Rapid Support Militia Leader in the Emirates as Atrocities Continue Across Sudan A series of photographs circulated on Sudanese social media this month that, at first glance, appeared entirely ordinary. A spacious courtyard at dusk, a customised Mercedes parked on a quiet street, and an older man sitting on a pale sofa with a child on his lap. They could easily have been photographs from any family summer holiday, far removed from the war, famine and mass graves that have come to define Sudan’s landscape. The older man in the photographs, however, is Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, commander of the UAE-backed Rapid Support Militia, the paramilitary force commonly associated with the Janjaweed. In January 2025, the United States sanctioned Hemedti by name as it formally determined that members of the Rapid Support Militia and allied militias had committed genocide in Darfur. The decision came after nearly two years of war in which atrocities attributed to the militia had spread across large parts of Sudan. In El Geneina, Human Rights Watch documented an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Masalit that included mass killings, rape, looting and forced displacement, among the most horrific episodes of violence since the war began. In Khartoum, the militia controlled large areas of the capital for months. Civilian homes and buildings were turned into military positions and detention facilities. As the Sudanese army advanced and retook areas previously held by the militia, detention sites, graves and bodies began to emerge, alongside testimony from survivors describing torture, starvation, humiliation and detention in brutal conditions. The period of militia control over large parts of Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri was also marked by widespread looting of homes and property, the occupation of civilian residences, and repeated accounts of rape and sexual violence. The same devastation then spread into Gezira State after the militia entered the region in December 2023. Towns and villages were subjected to killings, looting and attacks, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Many of them had already escaped Khartoum and had gone to Gezira in search of safety. In June 2024, Wad Al-Noura became the site of one of the militia’s most notorious massacres in the state. Months later, a wave of attacks swept through villages in eastern Gezira, with Al-Sireha among the communities subjected to large-scale killings. The violence extended across dozens of villages and towns amid reports of killings, looting, arson, sexual violence and forced displacement. The pattern repeated itself across different parts of Sudan: the militia entered civilian communities, killings and looting followed, homes were occupied, people were detained, sexual violence was reported, and entire populations were forced to abandon their towns and villages. El Fasher became one of the bloodiest chapters in that trajectory. After a prolonged siege, the city fell to the Rapid Support Militia. United Nations investigators documented the killing of more than 6,000 people during the first three days, while the fate of an estimated 150,000 residents remained unknown. The UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan subsequently concluded that the violations committed there bore hallmarks of genocide. As the geographical scale of these atrocities expanded and the war continued year after year, another question became central to international investigations: where was the militia obtaining the weapons, financing and supplies that allowed it to sustain its military capabilities? The Rapid Support Militia continued fighting on multiple fronts, acquiring weapons, ammunition, vehicles and drones while also deploying foreign fighters in a war stretching from Darfur to Khartoum, Gezira, Kordofan and El Fasher. From the early months of the conflict, evidence began accumulating around the UAE’s role in the supply network supporting the militia. In a report dated January 15, 2024, the UN Panel of Experts on Sudan said information it had gathered concerning the transfer of weapons and ammunition to the Rapid Support Militia through Amdjarass airport in eastern Chad was “credible.” In July 2024, The Guardian published an investigation into Emirati passports and documents discovered among equipment linked to the militia in Sudan. In September, The New York Times investigated UAE activity in Amdjarass and allegations that the humanitarian operation there was running alongside a pipeline supplying weapons and other support to the militia. The following month, The Washington Post published an investigation based on weapons captured by the Sudanese army, together with US assessments and reports, linking equipment and ammunition found in the hands of the Rapid Support Militia to the UAE. In November 2024, Amnesty International identified the French-made Galix defence system installed on UAE-manufactured Nimr Ajban armoured vehicles used by the militia. Flight data then revealed another dimension of the supply network. In December 2024, Reuters tracked at least 86 flights from the UAE to Amdjarass since the war began. A significant number were operated by companies previously linked in UN reporting to arms-transfer operations in the region. Researcher Justin Lynch also contributed to tracking and analysing flight and supply networks connecting these routes to the Rapid Support Militia. By early 2025, the issue had reached the level of official scrutiny in Washington. On January 24, Senator Chris Van Hollen and Representative Sara Jacobs said that, based on a briefing from the Biden administration and other reporting, they had confirmed that the UAE was continuing to provide weapons to the militia despite earlier assurances to Washington that it would stop. Over the following months, further evidence emerged from weapons stockpiles and supply convoys themselves. In April 2025, an investigation by France 24’s Observers team traced Bulgarian-made mortar rounds found in Darfur to a transaction involving an Emirati buyer, with the UAE Armed Forces listed in documentation as the end user. On April 29, Reuters, in an investigation involving journalist Reade Levinson, reported that the UN Panel of Experts was examining how Bulgarian ammunition officially exported to the UAE had ended up in a Rapid Support Militia supply convoy in Darfur. Bulgaria said it had never authorised the ammunition to be re-exported to Sudan. In May 2025, Amnesty International identified Chinese-made GB50A guided bombs and AH-4 155mm howitzers in the possession of the Rapid Support Militia. The organisation concluded that the weapons were “almost certainly” re-exported to Sudan by the UAE. As the investigations widened, a broader network emerged involving mercenaries, financing, companies and regional logistics. Beginning in 2024, Colombian investigative outlet La Silla Vacía exposed details of the recruitment of former Colombian soldiers to fight alongside the Rapid Support Militia. Subsequent investigations traced the networks used to recruit and transport these fighters, with UAE-based companies and routes repeatedly appearing in the reporting. Bellingcat has also investigated weapons and supply routes associated with the militia, while a joint investigation by Lighthouse Reports and its partners uncovered training camps, sites used to prepare weapons and vehicles, and supply convoys in eastern Libya connected to the Rapid Support Militia, along with Colombian mercenaries operating within the same network. On the financial side, The Sentry documented networks involving companies, gold trading, financing and property linked to senior Rapid Support Militia figures, including businesses and activities operating from within the UAE. These findings added a financial and commercial dimension to the military and logistical picture. In October 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence agencies had detected an increase in the flow of Emirati weapons to the militia, including drones, light and heavy weapons, vehicles, artillery, mortars and ammunition. The UAE continues to deny providing military support to the Rapid Support Militia. Over the course of the war, however, a substantial body of reporting and investigation has accumulated from the UN Panel of Experts, US assessments and sources, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Reuters, France 24, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Lighthouse Reports, Bellingcat and The Sentry. These are multiple, independent sources using different investigative methods. Flight records, export documentation, weapons and ammunition analysis, corporate and property records, satellite imagery and testimony from people on the ground have each exposed different parts of a support network that helped sustain the militia’s war. Alongside the evidence concerning weapons, financing and logistics, direct indications of Hemedti’s own presence inside the UAE also emerged during the conflict. In June 2025, The New York Times reported, citing US officials, that Hemedti had stayed at a protected residence in Abu Dhabi, where he recorded video addresses to his supporters in Sudan. The Sentry also documented his personal ownership of three apartments in Dubai, close to Al Minhad military airbase. The photographs that surfaced this month add another dimension to those reports. Hemedti appears once again inside the UAE, this time in quiet family photographs, while the war led by his militia continues in Sudan and the consequences of its atrocities stretch from El Geneina to Khartoum, Gezira and El Fasher. The information is there. The investigations have been published. The evidence continues to accumulate. The question becomes more urgent with every new investigation: how much more evidence does the world need before it acts? #Sudan #RSFisTerroristOrganization #UAEKillsSudanesePeople #UAESponsorsTerrorism
4:54

Summer Holiday Photos Place the UAE-Backed Rapid Support Militia Leader in the Emirates as Atrocities Continue Across Sudan A series of photographs circulated on Sudanese social media this month that, at first glance, appeared entirely ordinary. A spacious courtyard at dusk, a customised Mercedes parked on a quiet street, and an older man sitting on a pale sofa with a child on his lap. They could easily have been photographs from any family summer holiday, far removed from the war, famine and mass graves that have come to define Sudan’s landscape. The older man in the photographs, however, is Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti, commander of the UAE-backed Rapid Support Militia, the paramilitary force commonly associated with the Janjaweed. In January 2025, the United States sanctioned Hemedti by name as it formally determined that members of the Rapid Support Militia and allied militias had committed genocide in Darfur. The decision came after nearly two years of war in which atrocities attributed to the militia had spread across large parts of Sudan. In El Geneina, Human Rights Watch documented an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Masalit that included mass killings, rape, looting and forced displacement, among the most horrific episodes of violence since the war began. In Khartoum, the militia controlled large areas of the capital for months. Civilian homes and buildings were turned into military positions and detention facilities. As the Sudanese army advanced and retook areas previously held by the militia, detention sites, graves and bodies began to emerge, alongside testimony from survivors describing torture, starvation, humiliation and detention in brutal conditions. The period of militia control over large parts of Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri was also marked by widespread looting of homes and property, the occupation of civilian residences, and repeated accounts of rape and sexual violence. The same devastation then spread into Gezira State after the militia entered the region in December 2023. Towns and villages were subjected to killings, looting and attacks, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to flee. Many of them had already escaped Khartoum and had gone to Gezira in search of safety. In June 2024, Wad Al-Noura became the site of one of the militia’s most notorious massacres in the state. Months later, a wave of attacks swept through villages in eastern Gezira, with Al-Sireha among the communities subjected to large-scale killings. The violence extended across dozens of villages and towns amid reports of killings, looting, arson, sexual violence and forced displacement. The pattern repeated itself across different parts of Sudan: the militia entered civilian communities, killings and looting followed, homes were occupied, people were detained, sexual violence was reported, and entire populations were forced to abandon their towns and villages. El Fasher became one of the bloodiest chapters in that trajectory. After a prolonged siege, the city fell to the Rapid Support Militia. United Nations investigators documented the killing of more than 6,000 people during the first three days, while the fate of an estimated 150,000 residents remained unknown. The UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan subsequently concluded that the violations committed there bore hallmarks of genocide. As the geographical scale of these atrocities expanded and the war continued year after year, another question became central to international investigations: where was the militia obtaining the weapons, financing and supplies that allowed it to sustain its military capabilities? The Rapid Support Militia continued fighting on multiple fronts, acquiring weapons, ammunition, vehicles and drones while also deploying foreign fighters in a war stretching from Darfur to Khartoum, Gezira, Kordofan and El Fasher. From the early months of the conflict, evidence began accumulating around the UAE’s role in the supply network supporting the militia. In a report dated January 15, 2024, the UN Panel of Experts on Sudan said information it had gathered concerning the transfer of weapons and ammunition to the Rapid Support Militia through Amdjarass airport in eastern Chad was “credible.” In July 2024, The Guardian published an investigation into Emirati passports and documents discovered among equipment linked to the militia in Sudan. In September, The New York Times investigated UAE activity in Amdjarass and allegations that the humanitarian operation there was running alongside a pipeline supplying weapons and other support to the militia. The following month, The Washington Post published an investigation based on weapons captured by the Sudanese army, together with US assessments and reports, linking equipment and ammunition found in the hands of the Rapid Support Militia to the UAE. In November 2024, Amnesty International identified the French-made Galix defence system installed on UAE-manufactured Nimr Ajban armoured vehicles used by the militia. Flight data then revealed another dimension of the supply network. In December 2024, Reuters tracked at least 86 flights from the UAE to Amdjarass since the war began. A significant number were operated by companies previously linked in UN reporting to arms-transfer operations in the region. Researcher Justin Lynch also contributed to tracking and analysing flight and supply networks connecting these routes to the Rapid Support Militia. By early 2025, the issue had reached the level of official scrutiny in Washington. On January 24, Senator Chris Van Hollen and Representative Sara Jacobs said that, based on a briefing from the Biden administration and other reporting, they had confirmed that the UAE was continuing to provide weapons to the militia despite earlier assurances to Washington that it would stop. Over the following months, further evidence emerged from weapons stockpiles and supply convoys themselves. In April 2025, an investigation by France 24’s Observers team traced Bulgarian-made mortar rounds found in Darfur to a transaction involving an Emirati buyer, with the UAE Armed Forces listed in documentation as the end user. On April 29, Reuters, in an investigation involving journalist Reade Levinson, reported that the UN Panel of Experts was examining how Bulgarian ammunition officially exported to the UAE had ended up in a Rapid Support Militia supply convoy in Darfur. Bulgaria said it had never authorised the ammunition to be re-exported to Sudan. In May 2025, Amnesty International identified Chinese-made GB50A guided bombs and AH-4 155mm howitzers in the possession of the Rapid Support Militia. The organisation concluded that the weapons were “almost certainly” re-exported to Sudan by the UAE. As the investigations widened, a broader network emerged involving mercenaries, financing, companies and regional logistics. Beginning in 2024, Colombian investigative outlet La Silla Vacía exposed details of the recruitment of former Colombian soldiers to fight alongside the Rapid Support Militia. Subsequent investigations traced the networks used to recruit and transport these fighters, with UAE-based companies and routes repeatedly appearing in the reporting. Bellingcat has also investigated weapons and supply routes associated with the militia, while a joint investigation by Lighthouse Reports and its partners uncovered training camps, sites used to prepare weapons and vehicles, and supply convoys in eastern Libya connected to the Rapid Support Militia, along with Colombian mercenaries operating within the same network. On the financial side, The Sentry documented networks involving companies, gold trading, financing and property linked to senior Rapid Support Militia figures, including businesses and activities operating from within the UAE. These findings added a financial and commercial dimension to the military and logistical picture. In October 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence agencies had detected an increase in the flow of Emirati weapons to the militia, including drones, light and heavy weapons, vehicles, artillery, mortars and ammunition. The UAE continues to deny providing military support to the Rapid Support Militia. Over the course of the war, however, a substantial body of reporting and investigation has accumulated from the UN Panel of Experts, US assessments and sources, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Reuters, France 24, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, Lighthouse Reports, Bellingcat and The Sentry. These are multiple, independent sources using different investigative methods. Flight records, export documentation, weapons and ammunition analysis, corporate and property records, satellite imagery and testimony from people on the ground have each exposed different parts of a support network that helped sustain the militia’s war. Alongside the evidence concerning weapons, financing and logistics, direct indications of Hemedti’s own presence inside the UAE also emerged during the conflict. In June 2025, The New York Times reported, citing US officials, that Hemedti had stayed at a protected residence in Abu Dhabi, where he recorded video addresses to his supporters in Sudan. The Sentry also documented his personal ownership of three apartments in Dubai, close to Al Minhad military airbase. The photographs that surfaced this month add another dimension to those reports. Hemedti appears once again inside the UAE, this time in quiet family photographs, while the war led by his militia continues in Sudan and the consequences of its atrocities stretch from El Geneina to Khartoum, Gezira and El Fasher. The information is there. The investigations have been published. The evidence continues to accumulate. The question becomes more urgent with every new investigation: how much more evidence does the world need before it acts? #Sudan #RSFisTerroristOrganization #UAEKillsSudanesePeople #UAESponsorsTerrorism

Sudanese Echo

123,925 views • 11 days ago

BREAKING: The biggest investor in the Trump family's crypto company just turned on them publicly. He claims they built a "trap door" into the code to freeze investor money at will. And they just secretly borrowed $75 million against tokens that aren't theirs. Here's the crypto scandal unfolding right now: World Liberty Financial launched in 2024 during Trump's third presidential campaign. Co-founded by Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Barron Trump, and Zach Witkoff, the son of US envoy Steve Witkoff. Donald Trump was listed as "co-founder emeritus." The Trump family company was structured to receive 75% of net revenues from token sales. On Trump's 2025 financial disclosure form, he listed more than $57 million in income from World Liberty alone. By December 2025, the family had booked roughly $1 billion in profits. And held another $3 billion in unsold tokens. Now that empire is cracking open from the inside. One of the first, largest, and loudest investors in the project was Justin Sun. The Tron founder. Chinese-born crypto billionaire. He put in between $30 million and $75 million starting in late 2024. Sat as an advisor. Attended Trump's memecoin gala dinner. Held roughly 545 to 595 million WLFI tokens at peak, worth over $100 million. He was the whale the project pointed to as validation. On April 12, he went to X and publicly torched them. He called World Liberty "a trap masquerading as a door." He accused the project of building hidden controls into its smart contracts. Controls that let the company unilaterally freeze any wallet without notice, without warning, without due process. His own wallet was frozen last September, after he moved $9 million in tokens to a new address. He says he was running routine exchange deposit tests. No buying. No selling. No market impact. The wallet got blacklisted anyway. Hundreds of millions in tokens, locked for months. And according to Sun, the ability to do this was never disclosed to investors before they bought in. "This is the opposite of decentralization," he wrote. He called the Trump family "bad actors." He accused them of treating investors as a "personal ATM." World Liberty's official account fired back within hours. "Does anyone still believe Justin Sun?" "Justin's favorite move is playing the victim while making baseless allegations to cover up his own misconduct." "We have the contracts. We have the evidence. We have the truth." "See you in court pal." The biggest backer of a Trump family crypto venture. Publicly accusing them of a scam. Being told "see you in court" by the company. In public. On X. But the timing is the part nobody's putting together. In February, blockchain data later reported by CoinDesk showed something that never made it into a press release. World Liberty took out a $75 million loan from a crypto lending platform called Dolomite. The collateral? Five billion WLFI tokens. That's 5% of the entire supply. Borrowed against, quietly, while the same company was blocking regular holders from selling their own tokens. Think about what that means. Investors like Sun were told their tokens were locked. Couldn't be sold. Couldn't be moved. Meanwhile, the company was taking 5 billion of its own tokens and using them as collateral to borrow $75 million in stablecoins. Austin Campbell, a crypto consultant and NYU instructor, told NBC News: "If you took this conduct and translated it to traditional markets, you would have some problems." That is as close as a sober industry voice gets to saying "this is not supposed to be legal." Then on Tuesday, April 15, it escalated again. World Liberty filed a new governance proposal. It would unlock 62.3 billion WLFI tokens that were previously locked with no vesting schedule. Early supporters holding 17 billion tokens would keep all of theirs, with a two-year cliff. Founders, team, advisors, and partners would see 10% of their 45.2 billion tokens burned. The remaining 40.7 billion would unlock over five years. Sun called it a "trap door" the second it hit the forum. He warned that the proposal involves billions of dollars in assets. That it could reshape vesting rights, burn billions of tokens, and shift governance power permanently. All without the minority protections or independent review a public equity would require. His words: "These steps would never pass in traditional markets, where investors expect clear legal rights and due process." Meanwhile the token itself is bleeding. WLFI has lost 74% of its value since August. As of this week, it trades at around 8 cents. Down from a high of 40 cents at launch. But the Trump family has not been hit the way retail investors have. A Wall Street Journal analysis found the Trumps have cashed out at least $1.2 billion in real dollars from World Liberty Financial over the past 16 months. Not paper wealth. Not locked tokens. Actual cash. The separate TRUMP memecoin, launched days before the second inauguration, has crashed roughly 90% from its high. It now trades around $2.81. It was once $45. And there's the foreign money trail. Days before the inauguration, an investor linked to the UAE government paid $500 million to acquire nearly half of World Liberty Financial. A UAE government fund later used $2 billion of World Liberty's USD1 stablecoin to invest in the crypto exchange Binance. Allowing the Trump-linked entity receiving those dollars to hold them in bonds or money market funds and keep the interest. Shortly after, the Trump administration reversed a Biden-era restriction and gave the UAE access to advanced US chips. Binance's founder, Changpeng Zhao, received a presidential pardon despite his prior guilty plea for failing to stop illicit money flows tied to terrorism and trafficking. World Liberty publicly denied any connection between the UAE deal and the chips policy. But the paper trail is a paper trail. And now add this: Justin Sun's own SEC fraud case from 2023, charging him over crypto trades and illicit promotion, was quietly dismissed in March. He paid a $10 million fine. The case disappeared. One of the first investors in a Trump family crypto venture, under SEC fraud charges, had his case dropped months into the new administration. That same investor is now the loudest public critic of the company. Because he believes they built a kill switch into the code to lock him out of his own money. Here's the broader picture: World Liberty Financial holds a stablecoin, USD1, that ranks among the 10 most heavily used in the world. It runs on Binance and Kraken. It settles billions in transactions. The project's governance token, WLFI, has now collapsed in value while the company borrows against its own supply. The biggest institutional backer is calling it a trap. The House Judiciary Committee has published a report accusing the family of running a multi-billion-dollar self-dealing machine. The Committee documented $11.6 billion in Trump family crypto holdings and over $800 million in crypto income in the first half of 2025 alone. Democrats have accused the administration of dismantling the DOJ's National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team to shield these ventures from exactly this kind of scrutiny. The White House denies any wrongdoing. The Trump Organization has not responded to media requests. World Liberty is threatening its biggest investor with a lawsuit over his public accusations. This is not a crypto story anymore. This is an ownership story. About who owns the tokens. Who owns the code. Who owns the switch that freezes the wallets. And who owns the 75% cut of every dollar that flows through it. Retail investors are holding an 8-cent token down 74% from its high. The biggest whale is publicly accusing the company of a scam. The company just announced it secretly pledged billions of its own tokens as collateral for a $75 million loan. And the founding family has already cashed out $1.2 billion in real money. One of these things is not like the others. The question now is not whether this ends in court. Justin Sun vs. World Liberty is coming. The question is which courtroom. A civil dispute between two crypto parties? Or the first real securities case testing whether a sitting president's family business structure qualifies as a legal enterprise at all? Because "see you in court pal" works both ways. And Sun's lawyers have been waiting for him to give them something to file. He just did.
3:00

BREAKING: The biggest investor in the Trump family's crypto company just turned on them publicly. He claims they built a "trap door" into the code to freeze investor money at will. And they just secretly borrowed $75 million against tokens that aren't theirs. Here's the crypto scandal unfolding right now: World Liberty Financial launched in 2024 during Trump's third presidential campaign. Co-founded by Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Barron Trump, and Zach Witkoff, the son of US envoy Steve Witkoff. Donald Trump was listed as "co-founder emeritus." The Trump family company was structured to receive 75% of net revenues from token sales. On Trump's 2025 financial disclosure form, he listed more than $57 million in income from World Liberty alone. By December 2025, the family had booked roughly $1 billion in profits. And held another $3 billion in unsold tokens. Now that empire is cracking open from the inside. One of the first, largest, and loudest investors in the project was Justin Sun. The Tron founder. Chinese-born crypto billionaire. He put in between $30 million and $75 million starting in late 2024. Sat as an advisor. Attended Trump's memecoin gala dinner. Held roughly 545 to 595 million WLFI tokens at peak, worth over $100 million. He was the whale the project pointed to as validation. On April 12, he went to X and publicly torched them. He called World Liberty "a trap masquerading as a door." He accused the project of building hidden controls into its smart contracts. Controls that let the company unilaterally freeze any wallet without notice, without warning, without due process. His own wallet was frozen last September, after he moved $9 million in tokens to a new address. He says he was running routine exchange deposit tests. No buying. No selling. No market impact. The wallet got blacklisted anyway. Hundreds of millions in tokens, locked for months. And according to Sun, the ability to do this was never disclosed to investors before they bought in. "This is the opposite of decentralization," he wrote. He called the Trump family "bad actors." He accused them of treating investors as a "personal ATM." World Liberty's official account fired back within hours. "Does anyone still believe Justin Sun?" "Justin's favorite move is playing the victim while making baseless allegations to cover up his own misconduct." "We have the contracts. We have the evidence. We have the truth." "See you in court pal." The biggest backer of a Trump family crypto venture. Publicly accusing them of a scam. Being told "see you in court" by the company. In public. On X. But the timing is the part nobody's putting together. In February, blockchain data later reported by CoinDesk showed something that never made it into a press release. World Liberty took out a $75 million loan from a crypto lending platform called Dolomite. The collateral? Five billion WLFI tokens. That's 5% of the entire supply. Borrowed against, quietly, while the same company was blocking regular holders from selling their own tokens. Think about what that means. Investors like Sun were told their tokens were locked. Couldn't be sold. Couldn't be moved. Meanwhile, the company was taking 5 billion of its own tokens and using them as collateral to borrow $75 million in stablecoins. Austin Campbell, a crypto consultant and NYU instructor, told NBC News: "If you took this conduct and translated it to traditional markets, you would have some problems." That is as close as a sober industry voice gets to saying "this is not supposed to be legal." Then on Tuesday, April 15, it escalated again. World Liberty filed a new governance proposal. It would unlock 62.3 billion WLFI tokens that were previously locked with no vesting schedule. Early supporters holding 17 billion tokens would keep all of theirs, with a two-year cliff. Founders, team, advisors, and partners would see 10% of their 45.2 billion tokens burned. The remaining 40.7 billion would unlock over five years. Sun called it a "trap door" the second it hit the forum. He warned that the proposal involves billions of dollars in assets. That it could reshape vesting rights, burn billions of tokens, and shift governance power permanently. All without the minority protections or independent review a public equity would require. His words: "These steps would never pass in traditional markets, where investors expect clear legal rights and due process." Meanwhile the token itself is bleeding. WLFI has lost 74% of its value since August. As of this week, it trades at around 8 cents. Down from a high of 40 cents at launch. But the Trump family has not been hit the way retail investors have. A Wall Street Journal analysis found the Trumps have cashed out at least $1.2 billion in real dollars from World Liberty Financial over the past 16 months. Not paper wealth. Not locked tokens. Actual cash. The separate TRUMP memecoin, launched days before the second inauguration, has crashed roughly 90% from its high. It now trades around $2.81. It was once $45. And there's the foreign money trail. Days before the inauguration, an investor linked to the UAE government paid $500 million to acquire nearly half of World Liberty Financial. A UAE government fund later used $2 billion of World Liberty's USD1 stablecoin to invest in the crypto exchange Binance. Allowing the Trump-linked entity receiving those dollars to hold them in bonds or money market funds and keep the interest. Shortly after, the Trump administration reversed a Biden-era restriction and gave the UAE access to advanced US chips. Binance's founder, Changpeng Zhao, received a presidential pardon despite his prior guilty plea for failing to stop illicit money flows tied to terrorism and trafficking. World Liberty publicly denied any connection between the UAE deal and the chips policy. But the paper trail is a paper trail. And now add this: Justin Sun's own SEC fraud case from 2023, charging him over crypto trades and illicit promotion, was quietly dismissed in March. He paid a $10 million fine. The case disappeared. One of the first investors in a Trump family crypto venture, under SEC fraud charges, had his case dropped months into the new administration. That same investor is now the loudest public critic of the company. Because he believes they built a kill switch into the code to lock him out of his own money. Here's the broader picture: World Liberty Financial holds a stablecoin, USD1, that ranks among the 10 most heavily used in the world. It runs on Binance and Kraken. It settles billions in transactions. The project's governance token, WLFI, has now collapsed in value while the company borrows against its own supply. The biggest institutional backer is calling it a trap. The House Judiciary Committee has published a report accusing the family of running a multi-billion-dollar self-dealing machine. The Committee documented $11.6 billion in Trump family crypto holdings and over $800 million in crypto income in the first half of 2025 alone. Democrats have accused the administration of dismantling the DOJ's National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team to shield these ventures from exactly this kind of scrutiny. The White House denies any wrongdoing. The Trump Organization has not responded to media requests. World Liberty is threatening its biggest investor with a lawsuit over his public accusations. This is not a crypto story anymore. This is an ownership story. About who owns the tokens. Who owns the code. Who owns the switch that freezes the wallets. And who owns the 75% cut of every dollar that flows through it. Retail investors are holding an 8-cent token down 74% from its high. The biggest whale is publicly accusing the company of a scam. The company just announced it secretly pledged billions of its own tokens as collateral for a $75 million loan. And the founding family has already cashed out $1.2 billion in real money. One of these things is not like the others. The question now is not whether this ends in court. Justin Sun vs. World Liberty is coming. The question is which courtroom. A civil dispute between two crypto parties? Or the first real securities case testing whether a sitting president's family business structure qualifies as a legal enterprise at all? Because "see you in court pal" works both ways. And Sun's lawyers have been waiting for him to give them something to file. He just did.

Insider Trackers

79,896 views • 4 months ago

.Marjorie Taylor Greene Trump capitalized on Obama's recovery for three years, claiming credit until the pandemic struck. Faced with his first real test, he fell flat on his face. He prioritized golf over leadership while thousands of Americans died from COVID-19. We need attention-seeking, Putin sympathizers as much as we need another pandemic. Your attempt to rewrite history by glossing over the previous administration's catastrophic failures is audacious. You all want us to forget 2020 existed. Here's the lowdown: - Unemployment soared from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February to 14.7% by April as the pandemic forced businesses to shut or scale down. - By the end of Trump's term, the U.S. lost 2.9 million jobs, marking the first presidency since Hoover to end with fewer jobs than it started with. - Public federal debt jumped from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion. - The economy shrank by 3.4% in 2020, the steepest decline since 1947. On the pandemic front, Trump's response faced heavy criticism: - He consistently underplayed the virus, likening it to the flu and suggesting it would just vanish. - His campaign rallies, lacking in social distancing and mask mandates, were tagged as potential super-spreader events. - Trump's golf outings during the pandemic's early days were seen as a sign of his crisis mismanagement. - A slow response to mobilize essential supplies for healthcare workers, including a delayed invocation of the Defense Production Act, led to critical shortages. The economic impact hit small businesses hard: - Many had to shut permanently due to lockdowns and decreased consumer spending. - The CARES Act's Paycheck Protection Program aimed to help, but faced criticism over its deployment and accessibility for the neediest businesses. Marjorie Taylor Greene knows that very well. She took PPP the amount of $182,300, which was later forgiven with interest, totaling $183,504. Transitioning to the Biden era came with its own set of hurdles: - Trump's delayed election concession hampered the formal transition process, including crucial pandemic response briefings. - The January 6 Capitol attack by Trump supporters disrupted the Electoral College result certification, sparking national security worries. - Biden took over a nation grappling with the pandemic's health impacts and in dire need of economic and societal healing. In essence, Trump's tenure concluded with the U.S. entrenched in a health crisis, economic slump, and polarized political scene, leaving the Biden administration to tackle the pandemic's ongoing challenges and to kickstart to recovery of a destroyed economy. This still overlooks his dealings with the Taliban, bypassing the Afghan government, which had been bolstered with hundreds of billions of dollars in training and arms. He opted to negotiate with the Taliban, a move that led to the Afghan government's collapse. He freed their leader along with 5,000 soldiers, while reducing U.S. forces to 2,500, all without a clear exit strategy for May 2021. This act served as a parting gift to Putin, cornering Biden into either redeploying 10,000 troops to continue an endless conflict or withdrawing to avoid Taliban aggression. That’s what Republicans are hoping slips your mind: They’d prefer you overlook the sheer incompetence of a president who's been indicted four times, impeached twice, and still only served one term. They're trying to erase 2020 from memory. But we won’t let that happen. Integrity, truth, and justice should be the pillars of our public conversation, not baseless accusations and distorted facts. One shall not LIE! We are not FOOLS! Joe Biden's tenure as President has been marked by substantial achievements and a determined effort to address the complex challenges he inherited from the Trump administration. Upon taking office, Biden was faced with an unprecedented global pandemic, a fragile economy, and deeply entrenched political divisions. Despite these challenges, his administration has made remarkable strides, affirming the United States' position as a global leader and a resilient nation. Biden's Achievements: Economic Recovery: Biden's policies have spurred a robust recovery, adding 15 million jobs to the U.S. economy, a record for any president in three years. This achievement is particularly notable given the economic turmoil at the pandemic's peak. Infrastructure Investment: The passage of a landmark infrastructure bill, a feat that had eluded previous administrations, will modernize the nation's infrastructure, creating jobs and improving quality of life for Americans. Climate Action: Biden has made the largest investment in climate action in U.S. history, demonstrating leadership in addressing the global climate crisis. Healthcare and Veterans: His administration has worked to lower drug prices and improve healthcare for veterans, addressing longstanding issues in veterans' care. Gun Safety Law: Biden achieved what hadn't been done in 30 years by passing significant gun safety legislation, reflecting his commitment to addressing gun violence. Economic Indicators: Under his leadership, the U.S. has seen the longest stretch of sub-4% unemployment in half a century, along with a record-high stock market and surging consumer sentiment. Recovery from Global Inflation: Biden's policies have also contributed to a faster recovery from global inflation than many other nations, showcasing the effectiveness of his economic strategies. Obstruction by Republicans: Despite these achievements, Biden's efforts have been consistently obstructed by Republicans, who have chosen to block meaningful legislation at every turn. This obstructionism is not just about thwarting Biden's agenda; it's aimed at creating hardship for Americans, hoping it will translate into political gains for Trump in 2024. Strength and Resilience: Folks, the narrative that the U.S. is a nation in decline is categorically false. The accomplishments of the Biden administration, in the face of significant adversity, underscore the nation's strength and resilience. These achievements, along with Biden's proactive measures on immigration, border security, and international relations, reaffirm the U.S. as the strongest nation globally, capable of leading with integrity and innovation. Conclusion: The contrast between the forward momentum under Biden and the stagnation and division fostered by obstructionist Republicans is clear. The achievements of the Biden administration, particularly in areas handed off in turmoil by the previous administration, highlight a government working tirelessly for the betterment of its people and standing firm on the world stage. The path forward requires continued leadership that builds on these successes, not regressive policies that seek to undo this progress for political points. #BidenomicsIsWorking #Bidenomics
0:30

.Marjorie Taylor Greene Trump capitalized on Obama's recovery for three years, claiming credit until the pandemic struck. Faced with his first real test, he fell flat on his face. He prioritized golf over leadership while thousands of Americans died from COVID-19. We need attention-seeking, Putin sympathizers as much as we need another pandemic. Your attempt to rewrite history by glossing over the previous administration's catastrophic failures is audacious. You all want us to forget 2020 existed. Here's the lowdown: - Unemployment soared from a 50-year low of 3.5% in February to 14.7% by April as the pandemic forced businesses to shut or scale down. - By the end of Trump's term, the U.S. lost 2.9 million jobs, marking the first presidency since Hoover to end with fewer jobs than it started with. - Public federal debt jumped from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion. - The economy shrank by 3.4% in 2020, the steepest decline since 1947. On the pandemic front, Trump's response faced heavy criticism: - He consistently underplayed the virus, likening it to the flu and suggesting it would just vanish. - His campaign rallies, lacking in social distancing and mask mandates, were tagged as potential super-spreader events. - Trump's golf outings during the pandemic's early days were seen as a sign of his crisis mismanagement. - A slow response to mobilize essential supplies for healthcare workers, including a delayed invocation of the Defense Production Act, led to critical shortages. The economic impact hit small businesses hard: - Many had to shut permanently due to lockdowns and decreased consumer spending. - The CARES Act's Paycheck Protection Program aimed to help, but faced criticism over its deployment and accessibility for the neediest businesses. Marjorie Taylor Greene knows that very well. She took PPP the amount of $182,300, which was later forgiven with interest, totaling $183,504. Transitioning to the Biden era came with its own set of hurdles: - Trump's delayed election concession hampered the formal transition process, including crucial pandemic response briefings. - The January 6 Capitol attack by Trump supporters disrupted the Electoral College result certification, sparking national security worries. - Biden took over a nation grappling with the pandemic's health impacts and in dire need of economic and societal healing. In essence, Trump's tenure concluded with the U.S. entrenched in a health crisis, economic slump, and polarized political scene, leaving the Biden administration to tackle the pandemic's ongoing challenges and to kickstart to recovery of a destroyed economy. This still overlooks his dealings with the Taliban, bypassing the Afghan government, which had been bolstered with hundreds of billions of dollars in training and arms. He opted to negotiate with the Taliban, a move that led to the Afghan government's collapse. He freed their leader along with 5,000 soldiers, while reducing U.S. forces to 2,500, all without a clear exit strategy for May 2021. This act served as a parting gift to Putin, cornering Biden into either redeploying 10,000 troops to continue an endless conflict or withdrawing to avoid Taliban aggression. That’s what Republicans are hoping slips your mind: They’d prefer you overlook the sheer incompetence of a president who's been indicted four times, impeached twice, and still only served one term. They're trying to erase 2020 from memory. But we won’t let that happen. Integrity, truth, and justice should be the pillars of our public conversation, not baseless accusations and distorted facts. One shall not LIE! We are not FOOLS! Joe Biden's tenure as President has been marked by substantial achievements and a determined effort to address the complex challenges he inherited from the Trump administration. Upon taking office, Biden was faced with an unprecedented global pandemic, a fragile economy, and deeply entrenched political divisions. Despite these challenges, his administration has made remarkable strides, affirming the United States' position as a global leader and a resilient nation. Biden's Achievements: Economic Recovery: Biden's policies have spurred a robust recovery, adding 15 million jobs to the U.S. economy, a record for any president in three years. This achievement is particularly notable given the economic turmoil at the pandemic's peak. Infrastructure Investment: The passage of a landmark infrastructure bill, a feat that had eluded previous administrations, will modernize the nation's infrastructure, creating jobs and improving quality of life for Americans. Climate Action: Biden has made the largest investment in climate action in U.S. history, demonstrating leadership in addressing the global climate crisis. Healthcare and Veterans: His administration has worked to lower drug prices and improve healthcare for veterans, addressing longstanding issues in veterans' care. Gun Safety Law: Biden achieved what hadn't been done in 30 years by passing significant gun safety legislation, reflecting his commitment to addressing gun violence. Economic Indicators: Under his leadership, the U.S. has seen the longest stretch of sub-4% unemployment in half a century, along with a record-high stock market and surging consumer sentiment. Recovery from Global Inflation: Biden's policies have also contributed to a faster recovery from global inflation than many other nations, showcasing the effectiveness of his economic strategies. Obstruction by Republicans: Despite these achievements, Biden's efforts have been consistently obstructed by Republicans, who have chosen to block meaningful legislation at every turn. This obstructionism is not just about thwarting Biden's agenda; it's aimed at creating hardship for Americans, hoping it will translate into political gains for Trump in 2024. Strength and Resilience: Folks, the narrative that the U.S. is a nation in decline is categorically false. The accomplishments of the Biden administration, in the face of significant adversity, underscore the nation's strength and resilience. These achievements, along with Biden's proactive measures on immigration, border security, and international relations, reaffirm the U.S. as the strongest nation globally, capable of leading with integrity and innovation. Conclusion: The contrast between the forward momentum under Biden and the stagnation and division fostered by obstructionist Republicans is clear. The achievements of the Biden administration, particularly in areas handed off in turmoil by the previous administration, highlight a government working tirelessly for the betterment of its people and standing firm on the world stage. The path forward requires continued leadership that builds on these successes, not regressive policies that seek to undo this progress for political points. #BidenomicsIsWorking #Bidenomics

Human☮🇺🇸🇺🇦🇺🇸🌊

16,052 views • 2 years ago

Michael Saylor spent 2025 telling people to sell a kidney before selling Bitcoin. Then he literally dumped $323 million of it since May. He just went on Diary of a CEO and exposed himself as a hypocrite in his own words: His company holds 842,138 Bitcoin. That is roughly 4% of every coin that will ever exist, which makes it the largest corporate holder on Earth. In February 2025 he posted "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Weeks earlier he had written that selling weakens the network. But here is what his own filings show since May: - 32 Bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 for $2.5 million - 3,588 Bitcoin sold between June 29 and July 5 for $216 million, the largest disposal in company history - 1,638 Bitcoin sold between July 27 and August 2 for $104.73 million That last batch went out at an average of $63,957 a coin. His average purchase price is around $75,400. He sold at a LOSS. New Bitcoin purchases are currently paused. So why is the loudest Bitcoin bull alive selling coins for less than he paid? The answer is a bill he built himself, and he walked through the whole thing on that podcast without once connecting it to the selling. He went to ChatGPT and asked it to design a security nobody had ever built, a preferred stock where he could change the dividend rate every month. He says the lawyers and bankers told him it had never been done before. He brought it to market as a $2.5 billion IPO, then sold another $8 billion off a shelf registration. His own framing of that: Selling $15 billion of credit "kind of equates to the company making about $15 billion." Selling credit is borrowing. Every dollar came attached to a dividend he now has to pay in cash, forever, whether Bitcoin goes up or not. Strategy owes over $1.7 billion a year across five preferred instruments and its debt. The software business does not come close to covering that. So the Bitcoin covers it. The break-even is 3.2%. So if Bitcoin appreciates 3.2% a year, they can pay those dividends indefinitely by selling Bitcoin to do it. He called the sale a one-time demonstration to break a short seller narrative and said selling is not the primary strategy. His own CEO Phong Le told the Q2 earnings call that Strategy will sell whenever management finds it advantageous, and that investors should expect more going forward. Now look at who ends up holding the bag: That preferred stock is majority owned by retail investors, and it dropped to $89 against a $100 par value in June. Retail Bitcoin holders get told to hold through anything while retail preferred holders get paid a yield funded by selling that same Bitcoin at a loss. He opened that same episode explaining that Bitcoin lets you own something nobody more powerful can take away from you. In 2024 he paid $40 million to settle what the DC Attorney General called the LARGEST income tax fraud recovery in the city's history. The complaint said he claimed residency in Florida while his own security logs placed him in Washington for 1,397 days against 449 in Florida. He settled without admitting wrongdoing and still disputes living there. In 2000 he settled SEC accounting fraud charges after his company reported profits during years it was actually losing money. He disgorged $8.28 million and admitted nothing. Strategy lost $12.54 billion in the first quarter and another $8.22 billion in the second. And this week he sat there and told a 25 year old with a few hundred dollars to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a decade. But he is not doing that himself. His company just SOLD $105 million of it. What do you think of Saylor?
2:24

Michael Saylor spent 2025 telling people to sell a kidney before selling Bitcoin. Then he literally dumped $323 million of it since May. He just went on Diary of a CEO and exposed himself as a hypocrite in his own words: His company holds 842,138 Bitcoin. That is roughly 4% of every coin that will ever exist, which makes it the largest corporate holder on Earth. In February 2025 he posted "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Weeks earlier he had written that selling weakens the network. But here is what his own filings show since May: - 32 Bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 for $2.5 million - 3,588 Bitcoin sold between June 29 and July 5 for $216 million, the largest disposal in company history - 1,638 Bitcoin sold between July 27 and August 2 for $104.73 million That last batch went out at an average of $63,957 a coin. His average purchase price is around $75,400. He sold at a LOSS. New Bitcoin purchases are currently paused. So why is the loudest Bitcoin bull alive selling coins for less than he paid? The answer is a bill he built himself, and he walked through the whole thing on that podcast without once connecting it to the selling. He went to ChatGPT and asked it to design a security nobody had ever built, a preferred stock where he could change the dividend rate every month. He says the lawyers and bankers told him it had never been done before. He brought it to market as a $2.5 billion IPO, then sold another $8 billion off a shelf registration. His own framing of that: Selling $15 billion of credit "kind of equates to the company making about $15 billion." Selling credit is borrowing. Every dollar came attached to a dividend he now has to pay in cash, forever, whether Bitcoin goes up or not. Strategy owes over $1.7 billion a year across five preferred instruments and its debt. The software business does not come close to covering that. So the Bitcoin covers it. The break-even is 3.2%. So if Bitcoin appreciates 3.2% a year, they can pay those dividends indefinitely by selling Bitcoin to do it. He called the sale a one-time demonstration to break a short seller narrative and said selling is not the primary strategy. His own CEO Phong Le told the Q2 earnings call that Strategy will sell whenever management finds it advantageous, and that investors should expect more going forward. Now look at who ends up holding the bag: That preferred stock is majority owned by retail investors, and it dropped to $89 against a $100 par value in June. Retail Bitcoin holders get told to hold through anything while retail preferred holders get paid a yield funded by selling that same Bitcoin at a loss. He opened that same episode explaining that Bitcoin lets you own something nobody more powerful can take away from you. In 2024 he paid $40 million to settle what the DC Attorney General called the LARGEST income tax fraud recovery in the city's history. The complaint said he claimed residency in Florida while his own security logs placed him in Washington for 1,397 days against 449 in Florida. He settled without admitting wrongdoing and still disputes living there. In 2000 he settled SEC accounting fraud charges after his company reported profits during years it was actually losing money. He disgorged $8.28 million and admitted nothing. Strategy lost $12.54 billion in the first quarter and another $8.22 billion in the second. And this week he sat there and told a 25 year old with a few hundred dollars to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a decade. But he is not doing that himself. His company just SOLD $105 million of it. What do you think of Saylor?

Ricardo

20,623 views • 23 days ago

WHY YOU WAKE UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT Your brain has 20,000 neurons clustered in the hypothalamus. They form the suprachiasmatic nucleus. This is your master clock. It's been running since before birth. At 25, this clock kept you unconscious until morning. At 65, the same clock runs on less melatonin, weaker signals, and a rhythm that physically shifted 2-3 hours earlier. It fires a wake signal between 2-4 a.m. Four systems inside your body shifted with age. They converge at the same hour every night. The thoughts that arrive at 3 a.m. feel different from the same thoughts at 3 p.m. because your brain runs a different program in the dark. The part that would normally tell you those thoughts aren't emergencies is still asleep. THE CLOCK MOVED FORWARD The suprachiasmatic nucleus generates a near 24-hour rhythm controlling when you feel alert and when you feel sleepy. In young adults, peak sleepiness arrives around 11 p.m. Peak alertness arrives around 9-10 a.m. Blue light at 480 nanometers activates melanopsin cells in the retina. These cells send signals directly to the suprachiasmatic nucleus, synchronizing your clock to the day-night cycle. With age, the clock shifts earlier. This is circadian phase advance. The sleepiness signal arrives at 7-8 p.m. instead of 11 p.m. The wake signal arrives at 3-4 a.m. instead of 6-7 a.m. The entire sleep-wake window moves forward 2-3 hours. The suprachiasmatic nucleus itself degrades. Neurons deteriorate. The amplitude of the circadian signal weakens. Peaks become shallower. Troughs become less deep. The radio station loses transmitter power until the signal becomes fuzzy and inconsistent. The clock's sensitivity to light cues diminishes through two mechanisms. The aging lens yellows and thickens, filtering more blue light before it reaches the melanopsin cells. The suprachiasmatic neurons themselves respond less robustly to whatever signal does arrive. Weaker input through a cloudier window. Less responsive neurons processing that input. The clock drifts. When the circadian clock drifts without strong light cues, it drifts earlier. Phase advance is the default direction of an unanchored aging clock. MELATONIN COLLAPSED The pineal gland releases melatonin at night to initiate and maintain sleep. This hormone declines with age. The pineal gland calcifies gradually over decades, reducing functional tissue and capacity to produce melatonin. By 65, nighttime melatonin levels can be one-third to one-quarter of what they were at 30. Sometimes less. Melatonin doesn't just initiate sleep. It maintains depth and continuity across the full night. When melatonin is low, sleep is shallower, more fragmented, more vulnerable to interruption. Even if you fall asleep at a reasonable hour, low melatonin cannot hold you through to morning. Your body tries to put you to sleep at 8 p.m. and wake you at 3 a.m. That's a 7-hour sleep window. It might be enough sleep for your shifted clock. But you fight the 8 o'clock drowsiness. Social life, television, family, habit. You stay up until 10 or 11. The clock doesn't adjust to your social schedule. It fires the wake signal at 3 regardless. The clock runs on light and biology, not preferences. You lost 2-3 hours from the front of your sleep window by staying up late. The alarm still goes off on the original schedule. The 3 a.m. waking isn't a malfunction. It's your shifted clock doing exactly what it was programmed to do. This is social jet lag. The gap between your biological clock time and your social clock time creates the same physiological mismatch as flying across two or three time zones. Your body is in one time zone. Your social life is in another. The drowsiness you fight at 8 p.m. is your body's genuine sleep onset signal. The waking at 3 a.m. is your body's genuine wake signal. The problem isn't the signals. The problem is overriding one without being able to override the other. There's a compounding factor. The shifted clock means your body wants to sleep earlier. The reduced melatonin means it cannot hold sleep as deeply or as long. You're caught between two problems: a clock that fires the wake signal too early and a chemical supply that cannot maintain the sleep signal through the full night. Even if you went to bed at 8, the reduced melatonin might still fail to hold you past 3 or 4. The clock shifted the window. The melatonin shrank it. DEEP SLEEP DISAPPEARED Sleep cycles through stages roughly every 90 minutes. Light sleep, deeper sleep, deeper sleep, then REM. The stage that matters most for feeling rested is slow-wave sleep, stage N3, the deepest phase. Brainwaves drop to large, slow delta oscillations at 0.5-4 hertz. During slow-wave sleep, the glymphatic system activates. Cerebrospinal fluid flushes through brain tissue along channels that open when neurons shrink slightly during deep sleep. This clears metabolic waste: adenosine, the molecule that builds sleep pressure during the day, and amyloid beta proteins, the plaques associated with Alzheimer's disease. Growth hormone pulses during N3. Tissue repair peaks. Memory consolidation occurs. The hippocampus replays the day's experiences and transfers them to long-term cortical storage. This is the sleep that makes you feel like you actually slept. At 25, roughly 20% of the night is spent in slow-wave sleep. By 65, that drops to 10-15%. By 75, some people get almost none. My sleep tracker tells me that I almost never get less than 30%... and I'm 60. It is possible to have restorative deep sleep no matter what your age is. In my case even at lower sleep duration. High energy availability alsp plays a big role. The slow wave generating circuits in the medial prefrontal cortex usually deteriorate with age, producing weaker and less frequent delta oscillations. The deep sleep itself becomes shallower. The waves are smaller. The duration shorter. The restorative process is less complete. If deep sleep is the period when the brain clears amyloid beta, then reduced deep sleep means reduced clearance. Less deep sleep leads to more amyloid, which leads to less deep sleep, which leads to more amyloid. The relationship is bidirectional and self-reinforcing. If you never feel fully rested no matter how many hours you spend in bed, if 8 hours produces the recovery that 6 hours used to produce, if you wake in the morning with the sense that something was missing from the night, the missing component may be slow wave sleep. The hours were there. The depth was not. Slow-wave sleep that remains concentrates in the first half of the night, the first two to three sleep cycles. By 2-3 a.m., most of the deep sleep budget has been spent. What remains for the second half of the night is lighter stage one and stage two sleep, interspersed with REM. Light sleep has a dramatically lower arousal threshold. Stimuli that would not have registered during slow-wave sleep can push you above the waking threshold in light sleep. A slight temperature change in the room. A bathroom urge from a bladder that fills faster with age. A noise from outside. Even the natural shift in body position. You wake at 3 a.m. partly because the sleep you're in at 3 a.m. is physiologically different from the sleep you're in at midnight. The fortress walls got thinner as the night progressed. By 3 o'clock, you're sleeping behind a screen door instead of a vault. You could sleep through thunderstorms at 30. Now you wake at the sound of a refrigerator cycling on. The physics isn't about the noise. It's about the stage of sleep you're in when the noise arrives. At midnight, during slow-wave sleep, your arousal threshold is high. The brain runs delta waves that suppress responsiveness to external stimuli. At 3 a.m. in stage 1 or stage 2, the threshold has dropped to a fraction of its midnight level. The same sound that the sleeping brain would have filtered at midnight wakes you at 3 because the brain is no longer running the program that filters it. CORTISOL ARRIVED EARLY Your body runs a cortisol rhythm called the cortisol awakening response. In the final hours of sleep, the adrenal glands begin increasing cortisol output, preparing the body for waking. Mobilizing glucose into the bloodstream. Priming the immune system for the day's pathogens. Raising blood pressure and heart rate toward daytime operating levels. In a young adult, this cortisol rise begins around 4-5 a.m. and peaks roughly 30-45 minutes after waking. With age, the rise begins earlier. 2-3 a.m. in many older adults. Low-carb diets can also trigger a relatively strong cortisol release, waking you up early.. The same circadian phase advance that shifted the sleep-wake window also shifted the cortisol curve. Every rhythm the suprachiasmatic nucleus controls moves in the same direction. Cortisol alone doesn't wake you. But combined with already light sleep and a shifted circadian clock, the cortisol rise adds a third signal, pushing you toward wakefulness at precisely the hour when the other two systems have already weakened your defenses. Three systems converging on the same window. The clock says wake up. The sleep stage says the walls are thin. The cortisol says the body is preparing for morning. All three signals arrive at 3 a.m. Not by coincidence. All three are governed by the same shifted circadian master clock. If the waking comes at almost exactly the same time every night, not randomly scattered across the early morning hours but clustered within the same 30-minute window, that precision is the signature of a circadian event. Cortisol is antagonistic to melatonin. The two hormones suppress each other. Cortisol inhibits melatonin production. Melatonin suppresses cortisol. In a young person with high melatonin and correctly timed cortisol, the two hormones hand off smoothly. Melatonin dominates the night. Cortisol rises toward morning. The transition is seamless. In an aging body with depleted melatonin and early-arriving cortisol, the handoff happens too soon. When cortisol starts rising at 2-3 a.m. and melatonin is already low, the biochemical conditions for staying asleep collapse. The melatonin that should be holding you under is insufficient. The cortisol that should not be arriving for another two hours is already here. Two hormones that are supposed to hand off like relay runners, one finishing as the other begins, instead collide in the same hour because both shifted on the same aging clock. The balance tips toward waking. THE WORST THOUGHTS ARRIVE When you wake at 6-7 a.m., cortisol is high, light enters your eyes, and your prefrontal cortex comes online in its task-oriented mode. You think about what to do, what to eat, where to go. Executive function engages. The thinking is directed, practical, forward-looking. Problems that exist at 7 a.m. feel like problems to be solved. Manageable, bounded, addressable. When you wake at 3 a.m. in the dark with no tasks to perform and no light to signal daytime, a different network activates. The default mode network. The brain's self-referential processing system fires in the absence of external input and directed task. This is the rumination network. It runs replays of conversations you had years ago. It generates worry scenarios about events that may never happen. It revisits regrets from decades past with a vividness that feels more real than memory should. It rehearses confrontations that will never take place. It asks questions that have no answers at any hour, let alone at 3 a.m. At 3 a.m., the default mode network has nothing competing with it. No light. No task. No external stimulation. No social interaction. And the executive prefrontal cortex that would normally evaluate, contextualize, and override the rumination is still partially offline. The prefrontal cortex is the last brain region to fully activate upon waking. It requires light exposure and time to reach full operating capacity. This is the region that says this thought is not an emergency. This worry is not proportionate to reality. This problem can wait until morning and will look different then. At 3 a.m., that region is sleeping while the default mode network runs at full power. You're awake enough to think. But the thinking is the uncontrolled, self-referential, catastrophizing kind. The system that controls and contextualizes thought has not caught up with the system that generates it. The worry loop feels more intense at 3 a.m. than the same thoughts would feel at 3 p.m. because the brain regions that regulate emotional response and assign proportionality are not yet operational. You're running the worry software without the control software. The thoughts feel urgent and catastrophic because the part of your brain that would tell you they are neither is still asleep. The thoughts are not true in the way they feel true. They're running on hardware that cannot evaluate them yet. The 3 a.m. thoughts have a specific quality that daytime worry doesn't. A sense of certainty. Of inevitability. Of problems being larger and solutions being fewer than they actually are. The distortion isn't emotional. It's architectural. The brain regions that generate worry are online. The brain regions that evaluate worry are not. By 7 a.m., when the prefrontal cortex has fully activated and light has entered the eyes and cortisol has reached its appropriate peak, the same problems that felt catastrophic at 3 a.m. feel manageable. Nothing changed about the problems. Everything changed about which brain regions are processing them. If you've lain in the dark at 3 a.m. and felt that your problems were larger, your regrets sharper, your fears more certain than they would be by breakfast, that wasn't weakness. It wasn't anxiety disorder. It was the default mode network running without prefrontal supervision, amplified by cortisol that arrived early, in a brain that had already run through its deep sleep budget and could not pull you back under. Four systems, all doing what the physics of aging programmed them to do, all converging on the same hour. Subscribers have access to detailed practical applications of remedies in a second attached post.
5:35

WHY YOU WAKE UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT Your brain has 20,000 neurons clustered in the hypothalamus. They form the suprachiasmatic nucleus. This is your master clock. It's been running since before birth. At 25, this clock kept you unconscious until morning. At 65, the same clock runs on less melatonin, weaker signals, and a rhythm that physically shifted 2-3 hours earlier. It fires a wake signal between 2-4 a.m. Four systems inside your body shifted with age. They converge at the same hour every night. The thoughts that arrive at 3 a.m. feel different from the same thoughts at 3 p.m. because your brain runs a different program in the dark. The part that would normally tell you those thoughts aren't emergencies is still asleep. THE CLOCK MOVED FORWARD The suprachiasmatic nucleus generates a near 24-hour rhythm controlling when you feel alert and when you feel sleepy. In young adults, peak sleepiness arrives around 11 p.m. Peak alertness arrives around 9-10 a.m. Blue light at 480 nanometers activates melanopsin cells in the retina. These cells send signals directly to the suprachiasmatic nucleus, synchronizing your clock to the day-night cycle. With age, the clock shifts earlier. This is circadian phase advance. The sleepiness signal arrives at 7-8 p.m. instead of 11 p.m. The wake signal arrives at 3-4 a.m. instead of 6-7 a.m. The entire sleep-wake window moves forward 2-3 hours. The suprachiasmatic nucleus itself degrades. Neurons deteriorate. The amplitude of the circadian signal weakens. Peaks become shallower. Troughs become less deep. The radio station loses transmitter power until the signal becomes fuzzy and inconsistent. The clock's sensitivity to light cues diminishes through two mechanisms. The aging lens yellows and thickens, filtering more blue light before it reaches the melanopsin cells. The suprachiasmatic neurons themselves respond less robustly to whatever signal does arrive. Weaker input through a cloudier window. Less responsive neurons processing that input. The clock drifts. When the circadian clock drifts without strong light cues, it drifts earlier. Phase advance is the default direction of an unanchored aging clock. MELATONIN COLLAPSED The pineal gland releases melatonin at night to initiate and maintain sleep. This hormone declines with age. The pineal gland calcifies gradually over decades, reducing functional tissue and capacity to produce melatonin. By 65, nighttime melatonin levels can be one-third to one-quarter of what they were at 30. Sometimes less. Melatonin doesn't just initiate sleep. It maintains depth and continuity across the full night. When melatonin is low, sleep is shallower, more fragmented, more vulnerable to interruption. Even if you fall asleep at a reasonable hour, low melatonin cannot hold you through to morning. Your body tries to put you to sleep at 8 p.m. and wake you at 3 a.m. That's a 7-hour sleep window. It might be enough sleep for your shifted clock. But you fight the 8 o'clock drowsiness. Social life, television, family, habit. You stay up until 10 or 11. The clock doesn't adjust to your social schedule. It fires the wake signal at 3 regardless. The clock runs on light and biology, not preferences. You lost 2-3 hours from the front of your sleep window by staying up late. The alarm still goes off on the original schedule. The 3 a.m. waking isn't a malfunction. It's your shifted clock doing exactly what it was programmed to do. This is social jet lag. The gap between your biological clock time and your social clock time creates the same physiological mismatch as flying across two or three time zones. Your body is in one time zone. Your social life is in another. The drowsiness you fight at 8 p.m. is your body's genuine sleep onset signal. The waking at 3 a.m. is your body's genuine wake signal. The problem isn't the signals. The problem is overriding one without being able to override the other. There's a compounding factor. The shifted clock means your body wants to sleep earlier. The reduced melatonin means it cannot hold sleep as deeply or as long. You're caught between two problems: a clock that fires the wake signal too early and a chemical supply that cannot maintain the sleep signal through the full night. Even if you went to bed at 8, the reduced melatonin might still fail to hold you past 3 or 4. The clock shifted the window. The melatonin shrank it. DEEP SLEEP DISAPPEARED Sleep cycles through stages roughly every 90 minutes. Light sleep, deeper sleep, deeper sleep, then REM. The stage that matters most for feeling rested is slow-wave sleep, stage N3, the deepest phase. Brainwaves drop to large, slow delta oscillations at 0.5-4 hertz. During slow-wave sleep, the glymphatic system activates. Cerebrospinal fluid flushes through brain tissue along channels that open when neurons shrink slightly during deep sleep. This clears metabolic waste: adenosine, the molecule that builds sleep pressure during the day, and amyloid beta proteins, the plaques associated with Alzheimer's disease. Growth hormone pulses during N3. Tissue repair peaks. Memory consolidation occurs. The hippocampus replays the day's experiences and transfers them to long-term cortical storage. This is the sleep that makes you feel like you actually slept. At 25, roughly 20% of the night is spent in slow-wave sleep. By 65, that drops to 10-15%. By 75, some people get almost none. My sleep tracker tells me that I almost never get less than 30%... and I'm 60. It is possible to have restorative deep sleep no matter what your age is. In my case even at lower sleep duration. High energy availability alsp plays a big role. The slow wave generating circuits in the medial prefrontal cortex usually deteriorate with age, producing weaker and less frequent delta oscillations. The deep sleep itself becomes shallower. The waves are smaller. The duration shorter. The restorative process is less complete. If deep sleep is the period when the brain clears amyloid beta, then reduced deep sleep means reduced clearance. Less deep sleep leads to more amyloid, which leads to less deep sleep, which leads to more amyloid. The relationship is bidirectional and self-reinforcing. If you never feel fully rested no matter how many hours you spend in bed, if 8 hours produces the recovery that 6 hours used to produce, if you wake in the morning with the sense that something was missing from the night, the missing component may be slow wave sleep. The hours were there. The depth was not. Slow-wave sleep that remains concentrates in the first half of the night, the first two to three sleep cycles. By 2-3 a.m., most of the deep sleep budget has been spent. What remains for the second half of the night is lighter stage one and stage two sleep, interspersed with REM. Light sleep has a dramatically lower arousal threshold. Stimuli that would not have registered during slow-wave sleep can push you above the waking threshold in light sleep. A slight temperature change in the room. A bathroom urge from a bladder that fills faster with age. A noise from outside. Even the natural shift in body position. You wake at 3 a.m. partly because the sleep you're in at 3 a.m. is physiologically different from the sleep you're in at midnight. The fortress walls got thinner as the night progressed. By 3 o'clock, you're sleeping behind a screen door instead of a vault. You could sleep through thunderstorms at 30. Now you wake at the sound of a refrigerator cycling on. The physics isn't about the noise. It's about the stage of sleep you're in when the noise arrives. At midnight, during slow-wave sleep, your arousal threshold is high. The brain runs delta waves that suppress responsiveness to external stimuli. At 3 a.m. in stage 1 or stage 2, the threshold has dropped to a fraction of its midnight level. The same sound that the sleeping brain would have filtered at midnight wakes you at 3 because the brain is no longer running the program that filters it. CORTISOL ARRIVED EARLY Your body runs a cortisol rhythm called the cortisol awakening response. In the final hours of sleep, the adrenal glands begin increasing cortisol output, preparing the body for waking. Mobilizing glucose into the bloodstream. Priming the immune system for the day's pathogens. Raising blood pressure and heart rate toward daytime operating levels. In a young adult, this cortisol rise begins around 4-5 a.m. and peaks roughly 30-45 minutes after waking. With age, the rise begins earlier. 2-3 a.m. in many older adults. Low-carb diets can also trigger a relatively strong cortisol release, waking you up early.. The same circadian phase advance that shifted the sleep-wake window also shifted the cortisol curve. Every rhythm the suprachiasmatic nucleus controls moves in the same direction. Cortisol alone doesn't wake you. But combined with already light sleep and a shifted circadian clock, the cortisol rise adds a third signal, pushing you toward wakefulness at precisely the hour when the other two systems have already weakened your defenses. Three systems converging on the same window. The clock says wake up. The sleep stage says the walls are thin. The cortisol says the body is preparing for morning. All three signals arrive at 3 a.m. Not by coincidence. All three are governed by the same shifted circadian master clock. If the waking comes at almost exactly the same time every night, not randomly scattered across the early morning hours but clustered within the same 30-minute window, that precision is the signature of a circadian event. Cortisol is antagonistic to melatonin. The two hormones suppress each other. Cortisol inhibits melatonin production. Melatonin suppresses cortisol. In a young person with high melatonin and correctly timed cortisol, the two hormones hand off smoothly. Melatonin dominates the night. Cortisol rises toward morning. The transition is seamless. In an aging body with depleted melatonin and early-arriving cortisol, the handoff happens too soon. When cortisol starts rising at 2-3 a.m. and melatonin is already low, the biochemical conditions for staying asleep collapse. The melatonin that should be holding you under is insufficient. The cortisol that should not be arriving for another two hours is already here. Two hormones that are supposed to hand off like relay runners, one finishing as the other begins, instead collide in the same hour because both shifted on the same aging clock. The balance tips toward waking. THE WORST THOUGHTS ARRIVE When you wake at 6-7 a.m., cortisol is high, light enters your eyes, and your prefrontal cortex comes online in its task-oriented mode. You think about what to do, what to eat, where to go. Executive function engages. The thinking is directed, practical, forward-looking. Problems that exist at 7 a.m. feel like problems to be solved. Manageable, bounded, addressable. When you wake at 3 a.m. in the dark with no tasks to perform and no light to signal daytime, a different network activates. The default mode network. The brain's self-referential processing system fires in the absence of external input and directed task. This is the rumination network. It runs replays of conversations you had years ago. It generates worry scenarios about events that may never happen. It revisits regrets from decades past with a vividness that feels more real than memory should. It rehearses confrontations that will never take place. It asks questions that have no answers at any hour, let alone at 3 a.m. At 3 a.m., the default mode network has nothing competing with it. No light. No task. No external stimulation. No social interaction. And the executive prefrontal cortex that would normally evaluate, contextualize, and override the rumination is still partially offline. The prefrontal cortex is the last brain region to fully activate upon waking. It requires light exposure and time to reach full operating capacity. This is the region that says this thought is not an emergency. This worry is not proportionate to reality. This problem can wait until morning and will look different then. At 3 a.m., that region is sleeping while the default mode network runs at full power. You're awake enough to think. But the thinking is the uncontrolled, self-referential, catastrophizing kind. The system that controls and contextualizes thought has not caught up with the system that generates it. The worry loop feels more intense at 3 a.m. than the same thoughts would feel at 3 p.m. because the brain regions that regulate emotional response and assign proportionality are not yet operational. You're running the worry software without the control software. The thoughts feel urgent and catastrophic because the part of your brain that would tell you they are neither is still asleep. The thoughts are not true in the way they feel true. They're running on hardware that cannot evaluate them yet. The 3 a.m. thoughts have a specific quality that daytime worry doesn't. A sense of certainty. Of inevitability. Of problems being larger and solutions being fewer than they actually are. The distortion isn't emotional. It's architectural. The brain regions that generate worry are online. The brain regions that evaluate worry are not. By 7 a.m., when the prefrontal cortex has fully activated and light has entered the eyes and cortisol has reached its appropriate peak, the same problems that felt catastrophic at 3 a.m. feel manageable. Nothing changed about the problems. Everything changed about which brain regions are processing them. If you've lain in the dark at 3 a.m. and felt that your problems were larger, your regrets sharper, your fears more certain than they would be by breakfast, that wasn't weakness. It wasn't anxiety disorder. It was the default mode network running without prefrontal supervision, amplified by cortisol that arrived early, in a brain that had already run through its deep sleep budget and could not pull you back under. Four systems, all doing what the physics of aging programmed them to do, all converging on the same hour. Subscribers have access to detailed practical applications of remedies in a second attached post.

Metabolic Uncle

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