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Mark Cuban thinks many data centers will turn into pickleball courts He was on the The All-In Podcast making the case that AI infrastructure is being overbuilt His comparison is the 90s when everyone raced to lay fiber-optic cable Then technology got more efficient, and what followed was the... show more

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274,323 просмотров • 12 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Jeff Bezos just made the most counterintuitive argument in tech. An AI crash wouldn’t destroy the future. It would fund it. Jeff Bezos: “If we go back 25 years ago when the internet was in that bubble-ish moment, no one would have predicted a lot of the industrial benefits.” The dot-com bubble erased trillions in market value. Companies that raised hundreds of millions were gone within months. The money vanished. The infrastructure didn’t. Bezos: “All of that fiber optic cable that got laid, and by the way, the companies who laid all that cable went out of business.” Billions worth of fiber optic cable buried under oceans and across continents. Laid by companies that no longer exist. They went bankrupt. The cable stayed in the ground. Bezos: “Like literally went bankrupt. But the fiber optic cable was still there. And we got to use it.” Amazon. Google. Netflix. Uber. Every cloud platform. Every streaming service. All built on infrastructure paid for by dead companies. They funded the future. They just didn’t survive long enough to see it. That exact pattern is about to repeat. Hundreds of billions are flooding into AI infrastructure right now. Data centers. Chip fabrication. Power generation. Cooling systems. Some of the companies writing those checks will not exist in five years. The market will correct. Valuations will crater. The bubble narrative will be everywhere. And the infrastructure will still be standing. Data centers don’t vanish when the stock price hits zero. GPUs don’t disappear when the company folds. Power grids don’t downgrade when investors pull out. Every dollar being spent right now is permanently reshaping the physical world. It doesn’t matter which companies survive to use it. The bubble isn’t the risk. The bubble is the funding mechanism. The railroad bubble overbuilt track that connected a continent. The telegraph bubble laid wire that enabled global communication. The dot-com bubble buried fiber that carries the modern internet. Each time, the investors lost. Each time, civilization gained. AI is that same pattern running at a scale we’ve never seen. The crash will feel like a catastrophe. In hindsight, it will look like something else entirely. The largest involuntary infrastructure investment in human history. The companies that fail will have already served their purpose. The compute layer stays. And the survivors build on top of it. The question was never whether the AI bubble will pop. It’s who will be standing in the rubble with a blueprint.

Jeff Bezos just made the most counterintuitive argument in tech. An AI crash wouldn’t destroy the future. It would fund it. Jeff Bezos: “If we go back 25 years ago when the internet was in that bubble-ish moment, no one would have predicted a lot of the industrial benefits.” The dot-com bubble erased trillions in market value. Companies that raised hundreds of millions were gone within months. The money vanished. The infrastructure didn’t. Bezos: “All of that fiber optic cable that got laid, and by the way, the companies who laid all that cable went out of business.” Billions worth of fiber optic cable buried under oceans and across continents. Laid by companies that no longer exist. They went bankrupt. The cable stayed in the ground. Bezos: “Like literally went bankrupt. But the fiber optic cable was still there. And we got to use it.” Amazon. Google. Netflix. Uber. Every cloud platform. Every streaming service. All built on infrastructure paid for by dead companies. They funded the future. They just didn’t survive long enough to see it. That exact pattern is about to repeat. Hundreds of billions are flooding into AI infrastructure right now. Data centers. Chip fabrication. Power generation. Cooling systems. Some of the companies writing those checks will not exist in five years. The market will correct. Valuations will crater. The bubble narrative will be everywhere. And the infrastructure will still be standing. Data centers don’t vanish when the stock price hits zero. GPUs don’t disappear when the company folds. Power grids don’t downgrade when investors pull out. Every dollar being spent right now is permanently reshaping the physical world. It doesn’t matter which companies survive to use it. The bubble isn’t the risk. The bubble is the funding mechanism. The railroad bubble overbuilt track that connected a continent. The telegraph bubble laid wire that enabled global communication. The dot-com bubble buried fiber that carries the modern internet. Each time, the investors lost. Each time, civilization gained. AI is that same pattern running at a scale we’ve never seen. The crash will feel like a catastrophe. In hindsight, it will look like something else entirely. The largest involuntary infrastructure investment in human history. The companies that fail will have already served their purpose. The compute layer stays. And the survivors build on top of it. The question was never whether the AI bubble will pop. It’s who will be standing in the rubble with a blueprint.

Dustin

140,490 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Mark Cuban: “A lot of data centers will be turned into pickleball courts.” Mark Cuban: “What's happening now is the market leaders, Google, Meta. etc, they're borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars. And there's already a private credit problem right now. Just layer on private credit, and then you have these huge companies that have cash flow, but they're spending all their cash flow on CapEx, and then they're borrowing on top of that. That's planning for perfection. And that's going to be hard. And we're building these data centers, and if there's a price-performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements, there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts. Everybody thinks that there's going to be so much more utilization. And there will be. It'll just scale like everybody expects. But there's going to be technological breakthroughs as well. Just like we saw fiber back in the day, it was all about putting in fiber. Then it went from 1GB fiber, to 10GB, to 100GB, and then there wasn't a fiber problem anymore. There wasn't a bandwidth problem anymore.” @jason: “It was quite the opposite. We had dark fiber that people bought for pennies on the dollar.” Cuban: “Just sitting there, right? And how is it not going to be the case that we don't get the same price performance improvements on the AI side and on the data center side?” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin Ads — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent LLC gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at

Mark Cuban: “A lot of data centers will be turned into pickleball courts.” Mark Cuban: “What's happening now is the market leaders, Google, Meta. etc, they're borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars. And there's already a private credit problem right now. Just layer on private credit, and then you have these huge companies that have cash flow, but they're spending all their cash flow on CapEx, and then they're borrowing on top of that. That's planning for perfection. And that's going to be hard. And we're building these data centers, and if there's a price-performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements, there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts. Everybody thinks that there's going to be so much more utilization. And there will be. It'll just scale like everybody expects. But there's going to be technological breakthroughs as well. Just like we saw fiber back in the day, it was all about putting in fiber. Then it went from 1GB fiber, to 10GB, to 100GB, and then there wasn't a fiber problem anymore. There wasn't a bandwidth problem anymore.” @jason: “It was quite the opposite. We had dark fiber that people bought for pennies on the dollar.” Cuban: “Just sitting there, right? And how is it not going to be the case that we don't get the same price performance improvements on the AI side and on the data center side?” ------------------------------ Thanks to our partners for making this possible! Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin Ads — 1B+ daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent LLC gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at

The All-In Podcast

180,574 просмотров • 7 дней назад

Mark Cuban: A lot of these data centers are going to end up as pickleball courts. “Everybody thinks there’s going to be so much more utilization and there will be… but there’s going to be technological breakthroughs as well. Just like we saw with fiber. It went from 1GB to 10 to 100GB and then there wasn’t a fiber problem anymore. How is it not going to be the case that we don't get the same price performance improvements on the AI side and on the data center side?”

Mark Cuban: A lot of these data centers are going to end up as pickleball courts. “Everybody thinks there’s going to be so much more utilization and there will be… but there’s going to be technological breakthroughs as well. Just like we saw with fiber. It went from 1GB to 10 to 100GB and then there wasn’t a fiber problem anymore. How is it not going to be the case that we don't get the same price performance improvements on the AI side and on the data center side?”

jay plemons

306,954 просмотров • 13 дней назад

Jeff Bezos built a trillion dollar company on infrastructure paid for by people who went bankrupt. And he just explained why it’s about to happen again with AI. In the 1990s, companies poured billions into laying fiber optic cable across the planet. Every one of them went broke. Bezos: “All of that fiber optic cable that got laid, and by the way, the companies who laid all that cable went out of business.” They died. The cable stayed. And it became the foundation of everything that followed. Now it’s happening again. Six people. No product. They started yesterday. $20 billion valuation. Bezos: “Investors don’t usually give a team of 6 people a couple of billion dollars with no product. It’s rare. And that’s happening today.” Everyone sees this and screams bubble. Bezos sees the same thing and recognizes something older. There are two kinds of bubbles. A financial bubble, like 2008, is pure destruction. Capital vanishes. Society inherits the crater. An industrial bubble runs on entirely different logic. Bezos: “This is a kind of industrial bubble, as opposed to financial bubbles.” The 90s biotech boom burned through billions. Stocks collapsed. Companies disappeared. The drugs they created are still saving lives today. Bezos: “As a group, they all lost money. But we did get a couple of life saving drugs.” The investors lose. The inventions remain. Every single time. Most AI companies being funded right now won’t exist in five years. The people writing the checks already know it. They are not confused. They are not reckless. They are financing infrastructure the entire world will inherit. Bezos: “The benefits to society from AI are going to be gigantic.” 25 years ago, no one could have predicted what the internet would become. Least of all the people who laid the cable. They went broke before the world they built ever switched on. The AI bubble is not a sign that something has gone wrong. It is how civilization has always financed things too large for any rational person to justify. Every piece of technology you use without thinking was once someone’s life savings disappearing in real time. That is what a successful bubble looks like from the other side. You stop seeing it. It just becomes the world. The system only works because the builders believe they will be the exception. If they ever saw the pattern clearly, they would stop. And the future would stop arriving. Progress does not run on genius. It runs on brilliant people being catastrophically, necessarily wrong. The people who build the future have never been the ones who get to live in it. That is not a flaw in the system. That is the system.

Jeff Bezos built a trillion dollar company on infrastructure paid for by people who went bankrupt. And he just explained why it’s about to happen again with AI. In the 1990s, companies poured billions into laying fiber optic cable across the planet. Every one of them went broke. Bezos: “All of that fiber optic cable that got laid, and by the way, the companies who laid all that cable went out of business.” They died. The cable stayed. And it became the foundation of everything that followed. Now it’s happening again. Six people. No product. They started yesterday. $20 billion valuation. Bezos: “Investors don’t usually give a team of 6 people a couple of billion dollars with no product. It’s rare. And that’s happening today.” Everyone sees this and screams bubble. Bezos sees the same thing and recognizes something older. There are two kinds of bubbles. A financial bubble, like 2008, is pure destruction. Capital vanishes. Society inherits the crater. An industrial bubble runs on entirely different logic. Bezos: “This is a kind of industrial bubble, as opposed to financial bubbles.” The 90s biotech boom burned through billions. Stocks collapsed. Companies disappeared. The drugs they created are still saving lives today. Bezos: “As a group, they all lost money. But we did get a couple of life saving drugs.” The investors lose. The inventions remain. Every single time. Most AI companies being funded right now won’t exist in five years. The people writing the checks already know it. They are not confused. They are not reckless. They are financing infrastructure the entire world will inherit. Bezos: “The benefits to society from AI are going to be gigantic.” 25 years ago, no one could have predicted what the internet would become. Least of all the people who laid the cable. They went broke before the world they built ever switched on. The AI bubble is not a sign that something has gone wrong. It is how civilization has always financed things too large for any rational person to justify. Every piece of technology you use without thinking was once someone’s life savings disappearing in real time. That is what a successful bubble looks like from the other side. You stop seeing it. It just becomes the world. The system only works because the builders believe they will be the exception. If they ever saw the pattern clearly, they would stop. And the future would stop arriving. Progress does not run on genius. It runs on brilliant people being catastrophically, necessarily wrong. The people who build the future have never been the ones who get to live in it. That is not a flaw in the system. That is the system.

Dustin

84,671 просмотров • 12 дней назад

When asked about whether AI stocks are priced too high, Jeremy Siegel said: "I think the biggest risk in AI investing is not whether it will work or not, but can it be done more cheaply?” Firstly, Siegel is a professor at the Wharton School of Business and has been analyzing markets for decades. His point is AI will work and transform the economy—there’s no doubt in this. The real risk is whether tech companies are spending too much ($1 trillion) on data centers to power AI. He pointed to a historical example: During the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, telecom companies laid thousands of miles of fiber optic cables across the country. They spent BILLIONS doing this. Then engineers discovered multiplexing—a way to send a thousand times more data through the same cables. Suddenly, all that infrastructure spending was unnecessary, contributing to the inevitable crash. Siegel is suggesting something similar could happen with AI. What if someone figures out how to run AI much more efficiently? The technology might work perfectly, but the current approach could be massively overbuilt. PS - Siegel covers this in more detail on his interview with CNBC. If you'd like to watch this to learn: - The 3 reasons why AI will transform the world just like the internet did in 90s - Why the biggest risk right now is if it can run more efficiently - How to position yourself when the inevitable crash happens RT and comment "SIEGEL" and I'll DM it to you immediately.

When asked about whether AI stocks are priced too high, Jeremy Siegel said: "I think the biggest risk in AI investing is not whether it will work or not, but can it be done more cheaply?” Firstly, Siegel is a professor at the Wharton School of Business and has been analyzing markets for decades. His point is AI will work and transform the economy—there’s no doubt in this. The real risk is whether tech companies are spending too much ($1 trillion) on data centers to power AI. He pointed to a historical example: During the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, telecom companies laid thousands of miles of fiber optic cables across the country. They spent BILLIONS doing this. Then engineers discovered multiplexing—a way to send a thousand times more data through the same cables. Suddenly, all that infrastructure spending was unnecessary, contributing to the inevitable crash. Siegel is suggesting something similar could happen with AI. What if someone figures out how to run AI much more efficiently? The technology might work perfectly, but the current approach could be massively overbuilt. PS - Siegel covers this in more detail on his interview with CNBC. If you'd like to watch this to learn: - The 3 reasons why AI will transform the world just like the internet did in 90s - Why the biggest risk right now is if it can run more efficiently - How to position yourself when the inevitable crash happens RT and comment "SIEGEL" and I'll DM it to you immediately.

Felix Prehn 🐶

88,068 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

In depth explanation why blockchain companies will become the new most valuable companies in the world 🔑💨 Confirmation that blockchain adoption will be a great wealth creation event. “Many people will make alot of money”💰 This is being said to institutional investors currently about the crypto market.🎯 Over the last 20 years, the companies that pioneered retail services on the internet (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft etc) created tremendous wealth and value to become the most valuable companies in the world💨 However, international finance and commerce are significantly more valuable sectors. Blockchain being an internet based technology and making this sector more efficient will generate historical returns. 💯 Listen closely👂

In depth explanation why blockchain companies will become the new most valuable companies in the world 🔑💨 Confirmation that blockchain adoption will be a great wealth creation event. “Many people will make alot of money”💰 This is being said to institutional investors currently about the crypto market.🎯 Over the last 20 years, the companies that pioneered retail services on the internet (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft etc) created tremendous wealth and value to become the most valuable companies in the world💨 However, international finance and commerce are significantly more valuable sectors. Blockchain being an internet based technology and making this sector more efficient will generate historical returns. 💯 Listen closely👂

SMQKE

51,844 просмотров • 2 лет назад

The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

The AI bubble argument has the causality backwards. Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman was in the 1990s fiber optic wave. He knows what a bubble looks like. In fiber, supply was built ahead of demand - companies bet on a future that hadn't arrived. AI infrastructure is the opposite: data centers can't be built fast enough to meet demand that is already here. Cerebras has $25B in backlog. NVIDIA has a backlog. AMD has a backlog. That is not a bubble. That is a queue. If you are short AI infrastructure on bubble thesis, Feldman's framing is the counter-argument you need to engage with. Feldman's full structural argument - including the fiber optic and railroad comparisons:

Podcast Alpha

16,010 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says the next phase of AI will be driven by applications. Chips were phase one, infrastructure was phase two and now the value shifts to companies building useful products on top of all that compute.

$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says the next phase of AI will be driven by applications. Chips were phase one, infrastructure was phase two and now the value shifts to companies building useful products on top of all that compute.

Shay Boloor

147,133 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Chamath said AI is not like the internet. Every new user costs real money. And the infrastructure making it possible was built by everyone. His argument was the clearest case for government ownership of AI labs I have ever heard. And it had nothing to do with Bernie Sanders. Start with the internet comparison. Google and Facebook became the most profitable companies in human history because of one number. The marginal cost of adding a new user was effectively zero. One more search query cost Google nothing. One more Facebook profile cost Meta nothing. They could serve a billion people and the incremental cost of that billion person was rounding error. That is the money printer. Infinite scale at zero marginal cost. AI breaks that model completely. Every single user taxes a GPU. Every query costs electricity. Every response requires memory and compute. The marginal cost of AI is real, significant, and does not disappear at scale. You cannot print money the same way. Then Chamath made the point that landed hardest. The infrastructure these companies depend on, the power grid, the land, the data centers, the permitting, the national security apparatus that protects their chips from being stolen, none of that was built by Anthropic or OpenAI. It was built by the public. By taxpayers. By decades of government investment in the physical and legal foundation these companies are now running on. He compared it to the interstate highway system. If the federal government built the roads and two companies transported all the goods on them, a logical question at that point would be how much of that should I own? You are riding on my rails. His conclusion was direct. If he were running a sovereign wealth fund and had the negotiating leverage of the US government, he would own 75% of these companies when he was done. The internet had zero marginal cost. That is why the founders captured almost all of the value. AI has real marginal cost and runs on public infrastructure. That changes who has a claim on what gets built. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

79,066 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, admits that the trillions of dollars being used to build data centers and power grids will come from ordinary people’s savings accounts and pension funds, and says it is mandatory. He says America needs trillions in AI infrastructure spending, and that people will be forced to “invest” in it. “Much of this will come from savings accounts and pension accounts.”

The CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, admits that the trillions of dollars being used to build data centers and power grids will come from ordinary people’s savings accounts and pension funds, and says it is mandatory. He says America needs trillions in AI infrastructure spending, and that people will be forced to “invest” in it. “Much of this will come from savings accounts and pension accounts.”

Shadow of Ezra

2,782,584 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Mark Cuban watching AI repeat the exact same pattern as dot com bubble: "if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts" this is him explaining why he thinks most VCs and funds are about to get wiped out, why CEOs have no idea what's coming, and what the dot-com bubble taught him about what happens when everyone prices to perfection "it's not the traditional dot-com bubble - but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE - because they're going all in" "CEOs have no clue what is going on with AI - none whatsoever - and that's not going to change" "every single business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Mark Cuban watching AI repeat the exact same pattern as dot com bubble: "if there's a price performance curve on AI that minimizes the power requirements there's going to be a lot of data centers that are going to be turned into pickleball courts" this is him explaining why he thinks most VCs and funds are about to get wiped out, why CEOs have no idea what's coming, and what the dot-com bubble taught him about what happens when everyone prices to perfection "it's not the traditional dot-com bubble - but it could just destroy a lot of VCs and a lot of funds and a lot of PE - because they're going all in" "CEOs have no clue what is going on with AI - none whatsoever - and that's not going to change" "every single business plan ever written in the history of business plans is wrong" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

684,574 просмотров • 13 дней назад

$Jeff Bezos just said an AI crash would be the best thing that ever happened to AI. Sounds insane until you look at what happened last time. Telecom companies invested $500 billion into fiber optic cable between 1996 and 2001. Most of it financed with debt. The growth in capacity outstripped demand by orders of magnitude. By 2005, 85% of the fiber they laid was still dark. Unused. The companies that built it went bankrupt. WorldCom. Global Crossing. 360networks. Exposed as fraud, overleveraged, or both. $2 trillion in telecom stock value evaporated. The cable stayed in the ground. 80.2 million miles of fiber, representing 76% of all digital wiring in the United States at that point, survived every bankruptcy filing and liquidation sale. The glass in the ground didn't care who owned the company above it. Amazon launched Prime Video on that fiber. Netflix streamed its first original on it. Google built YouTube on bandwidth that cost 90% less than it would have before the crash because dead companies had already paid for the capacity. Every cloud platform, every streaming service, every video call you've taken in the last decade runs on infrastructure that bankrupt telecom companies subsidized with investor money they never returned. Now look at 2026. Big Tech is spending $400 billion on data centers this year alone. Amazon's capex plan is $200 billion, the largest in corporate history. The AI bubble, by one estimate, is 17 times the size of the dot-com bubble. Bezos himself called it an "industrial bubble" at Italian Tech Week. Here's why he's calm about it. He watched the exact same movie in 2001. Amazon nearly died in that crash. Stock dropped 90%. But when the dust settled, Bezos had cheap bandwidth, empty data centers looking for tenants, and a trained workforce of engineers that the dead dot-coms had paid to train. AWS was built on the rubble. The pattern is specific. Investors fund infrastructure. Companies die. Infrastructure survives. The next generation builds on it at a fraction of the original cost. Data centers don't disappear when an AI startup folds. Chips depreciate, but the buildings, the power connections, the cooling systems, the land with energy contracts attached to it: all of that persists. When AI companies fail, they'll leave behind computing capacity that someone else will rent for pennies on the dollar. Bezos is making a $200 billion bet with full awareness that much of the industry around him will collapse. He's seen this before. The last time the bubble popped, it handed him the raw materials to build a $2 trillion company. The investors who funded the fiber never saw a return. The company that inherited it became the most valuable on earth.$

Jeff Bezos just said an AI crash would be the best thing that ever happened to AI. Sounds insane until you look at what happened last time. Telecom companies invested $500 billion into fiber optic cable between 1996 and 2001. Most of it financed with debt. The growth in capacity outstripped demand by orders of magnitude. By 2005, 85% of the fiber they laid was still dark. Unused. The companies that built it went bankrupt. WorldCom. Global Crossing. 360networks. Exposed as fraud, overleveraged, or both. $2 trillion in telecom stock value evaporated. The cable stayed in the ground. 80.2 million miles of fiber, representing 76% of all digital wiring in the United States at that point, survived every bankruptcy filing and liquidation sale. The glass in the ground didn't care who owned the company above it. Amazon launched Prime Video on that fiber. Netflix streamed its first original on it. Google built YouTube on bandwidth that cost 90% less than it would have before the crash because dead companies had already paid for the capacity. Every cloud platform, every streaming service, every video call you've taken in the last decade runs on infrastructure that bankrupt telecom companies subsidized with investor money they never returned. Now look at 2026. Big Tech is spending $400 billion on data centers this year alone. Amazon's capex plan is $200 billion, the largest in corporate history. The AI bubble, by one estimate, is 17 times the size of the dot-com bubble. Bezos himself called it an "industrial bubble" at Italian Tech Week. Here's why he's calm about it. He watched the exact same movie in 2001. Amazon nearly died in that crash. Stock dropped 90%. But when the dust settled, Bezos had cheap bandwidth, empty data centers looking for tenants, and a trained workforce of engineers that the dead dot-coms had paid to train. AWS was built on the rubble. The pattern is specific. Investors fund infrastructure. Companies die. Infrastructure survives. The next generation builds on it at a fraction of the original cost. Data centers don't disappear when an AI startup folds. Chips depreciate, but the buildings, the power connections, the cooling systems, the land with energy contracts attached to it: all of that persists. When AI companies fail, they'll leave behind computing capacity that someone else will rent for pennies on the dollar. Bezos is making a $200 billion bet with full awareness that much of the industry around him will collapse. He's seen this before. The last time the bubble popped, it handed him the raw materials to build a $2 trillion company. The investors who funded the fiber never saw a return. The company that inherited it became the most valuable on earth.

Aakash Gupta

104,079 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Sergey Brin said compute is dessert. The companies winning the AI race right now are not the ones with the most chips. They are the ones with the best algorithms. Every headline you read about AI is about data centers, Megawatts, and Nvidia orders. Billions in infrastructure and more. The entire investment thesis of the last three years has been built on compute scaling as the primary moat. Sergey thinks that framing is wrong. He pulled out an example from physics. The N-body problem. Scientists have been running those simulations since the fifties. Over the decades, raw compute improved on Moore's law. But the algorithms to solve the problem improved faster. Not slightly faster. Far faster. The algorithmic gains made the compute gains look small. He says the same thing has happened in AI over the last decade. Compute is not the meal. It is the dessert. You still want it. Nobody is turning down frontier compute. But the companies that figured out the algorithms first are the ones actually ahead. The market is pricing AI winners by who has the most chips. Sergey Brin just said that is the wrong scorecard. The ones who win this are not building the biggest data center. They are solving the harder math problem.

Sergey Brin said compute is dessert. The companies winning the AI race right now are not the ones with the most chips. They are the ones with the best algorithms. Every headline you read about AI is about data centers, Megawatts, and Nvidia orders. Billions in infrastructure and more. The entire investment thesis of the last three years has been built on compute scaling as the primary moat. Sergey thinks that framing is wrong. He pulled out an example from physics. The N-body problem. Scientists have been running those simulations since the fifties. Over the decades, raw compute improved on Moore's law. But the algorithms to solve the problem improved faster. Not slightly faster. Far faster. The algorithmic gains made the compute gains look small. He says the same thing has happened in AI over the last decade. Compute is not the meal. It is the dessert. You still want it. Nobody is turning down frontier compute. But the companies that figured out the algorithms first are the ones actually ahead. The market is pricing AI winners by who has the most chips. Sergey Brin just said that is the wrong scorecard. The ones who win this are not building the biggest data center. They are solving the harder math problem.

Ihtesham Ali

130,124 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

We all know AI is the future of technology. But almost nobody will OWN the technology shaping that future. The AI race is already underway. Billions are being invested. Companies are moving fast. AI is already reshaping entire industries. But when all this value gets created…Who actually benefits? Right now, mostly a handful of billionaires and Big Tech companies. We don’t think that’s fair. If AI is being built on the data, behavior, and contributions of ordinary people… Then ordinary people should share in the value it creates. That’s exactly what we’re building at Action Model: A future where AI is owned by the people, not just the few at the top.

We all know AI is the future of technology. But almost nobody will OWN the technology shaping that future. The AI race is already underway. Billions are being invested. Companies are moving fast. AI is already reshaping entire industries. But when all this value gets created…Who actually benefits? Right now, mostly a handful of billionaires and Big Tech companies. We don’t think that’s fair. If AI is being built on the data, behavior, and contributions of ordinary people… Then ordinary people should share in the value it creates. That’s exactly what we’re building at Action Model: A future where AI is owned by the people, not just the few at the top.

Action Model

21,134 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Sam Altman: "Very soon an AI will just be running for you in the background all the time" That entire model is on its way out. But the vision isn't the tell. This is: He says everyone's going to want "so much more of this AI infrastructure than we think." That's not a roadmap. That's a man admitting he can't build chips and power fast enough. The always-on assistant is the headline. The infrastructure bottleneck underneath it is the trade almost nobody is pricing in. That gap is the whole edge.

Sam Altman: "Very soon an AI will just be running for you in the background all the time" That entire model is on its way out. But the vision isn't the tell. This is: He says everyone's going to want "so much more of this AI infrastructure than we think." That's not a roadmap. That's a man admitting he can't build chips and power fast enough. The always-on assistant is the headline. The infrastructure bottleneck underneath it is the trade almost nobody is pricing in. That gap is the whole edge.

plutos

25,689 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Ray Dalio: “AI is eating everything… and it might eat itself.” Ray Dalio: “Right now it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything and it might eat itself.” “What I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.” “When we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.” “That's not true. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and the behavior of the technologies.” “The norm is that a lot of companies won't survive at the start. Very small percentage, and they'll all fight and so on.” “But the technologies will go on and it'll be great. That has big implications.” ---------------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this happen! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses,offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. Airwallex

Ray Dalio: “AI is eating everything… and it might eat itself.” Ray Dalio: “Right now it looks to me like AI basically is eating everything and it might eat itself.” “What I mean by that is not produce adequate profits.” “When we look at the bubble question on AI, what a lot of people don't realize in bubbles is that through all technologies, they think that they are betting on the technology when they buy the stocks in the companies.” “That's not true. There's a giant difference between the behavior of the companies and the behavior of the technologies.” “The norm is that a lot of companies won't survive at the start. Very small percentage, and they'll all fight and so on.” “But the technologies will go on and it'll be great. That has big implications.” ---------------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this happen! Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses,offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance. Airwallex

The All-In Podcast

73,890 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

Jeffrey P. Snider

22,209 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong “I actually think Michael Burberry's got this wrong.” “What Michael Burry is saying is that all of these hyperscalers have extended their depreciation schedule or the useful life of their data centers by roughly 2x, which cuts the operating costs in half when they report it in earnings. And so it's making their earnings inflate.” “So he's claiming they're cooking the books. Google first made this change in Q1 of 2021, where they said the servers are now going from 3 to 4 years. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment from 3 to 5 years. And then in 2023, they took it from 5 to 6 years.” “And so this is a result of this effort where they went in and did an analysis. So what happened?” “What happened in the data centers is that the data centers transitioned from being primarily data storage and data transfer systems, where you would use hard drives and RAM and memory to store data and then transmit it back out, to being data processing centers because of the AI boom.” “So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are going into data centers were allocated towards chips from data storage, which initially was hard drives.” “And then suddenly, when you put these processors in to process the data to do AI, the majority of the spend and the majority of the energy is going towards the processors.” “I made some calls and I checked around with some other friends, and everyone says the same thing: that these 7-8 year old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% utilization.” “So that actually justifies and validates the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter.”

David Friedberg: Michael Burry’s Datacenter Math is Wrong “I actually think Michael Burberry's got this wrong.” “What Michael Burry is saying is that all of these hyperscalers have extended their depreciation schedule or the useful life of their data centers by roughly 2x, which cuts the operating costs in half when they report it in earnings. And so it's making their earnings inflate.” “So he's claiming they're cooking the books. Google first made this change in Q1 of 2021, where they said the servers are now going from 3 to 4 years. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment from 3 to 5 years. And then in 2023, they took it from 5 to 6 years.” “And so this is a result of this effort where they went in and did an analysis. So what happened?” “What happened in the data centers is that the data centers transitioned from being primarily data storage and data transfer systems, where you would use hard drives and RAM and memory to store data and then transmit it back out, to being data processing centers because of the AI boom.” “So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are going into data centers were allocated towards chips from data storage, which initially was hard drives.” “And then suddenly, when you put these processors in to process the data to do AI, the majority of the spend and the majority of the energy is going towards the processors.” “I made some calls and I checked around with some other friends, and everyone says the same thing: that these 7-8 year old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% utilization.” “So that actually justifies and validates the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter.”

The All-In Podcast

304,297 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

What if the AI infrastructure boom is like the fiber optic cable craze of the late 90s? Everyone got rich building it. Then it collapsed. Jeff Weniger says we have all become AI specialists just to have a view on the $SPX. And when you actually dig into these businesses, the complexity is staggering. $META is basically just the sum of a bunch of acquisitions. Who even uses Facebook anymore? Ryan Grace & Jeff Weniger on the question the market is not asking:

What if the AI infrastructure boom is like the fiber optic cable craze of the late 90s? Everyone got rich building it. Then it collapsed. Jeff Weniger says we have all become AI specialists just to have a view on the $SPX. And when you actually dig into these businesses, the complexity is staggering. $META is basically just the sum of a bunch of acquisitions. Who even uses Facebook anymore? Ryan Grace & Jeff Weniger on the question the market is not asking:

tastylive

12,796 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Mark Cuban on why companies desperately need AI implementers, but can't find them: "I've been through every single technology, you know, event and evolution and this blows them all away." But the technology itself isn't the real opportunity. As Cuban puts it: "Now, how you implement it in business is a whole different issue." To explain why, he goes back to his own beginnings. He recalls walking into companies in his twenties that had never encountered a personal computer: "Like literally, when I was 24, I was walking into companies who had never seen a PC before in their lives and explaining to them the value and having these guys going, 'Well, son, I got this receptionist right there. I got that secretary. I'm never going to need that s*** ever.'" His edge back then came from teaching those businesses how to actually put the technology to work. Cuban sees the same pattern repeating with AI, which is exactly the advice he gives the young people in his life: "When I'm telling my kids and kids going to school what should I do? What should I do? I'd be like AI research learn all you can about AI but learn more on how to implement them in companies right because to your point companies don't understand how to implement all that right now." Mark Cuban points to a shift already underway: "You got the head of Microsoft saying software is dead cuz everything's going to be customized to your unique utilization." The question that follows, he argues, is simple: "Who's going to do it for them? Particularly small to medium-size businesses." And the scale of that gap is enormous: "There are 33 million companies in this country. 30 million of them are soloreneurs… There are only, you know, there are millions of companies that have 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, 500 people that aren't going to have AI budgets, aren't going to have AI experts. This is where kids getting hired coming out of college are really going to have a unique opportunity." Cuban's prescription for students is to spend their free time getting hands-on now — learning to produce video, learning to customize a model, so they can walk into any business and prove their value: "Let me show you how to benefit you. That is every single job that's going to be available for kids coming out of school because every single company needs that."

Mark Cuban on why companies desperately need AI implementers, but can't find them: "I've been through every single technology, you know, event and evolution and this blows them all away." But the technology itself isn't the real opportunity. As Cuban puts it: "Now, how you implement it in business is a whole different issue." To explain why, he goes back to his own beginnings. He recalls walking into companies in his twenties that had never encountered a personal computer: "Like literally, when I was 24, I was walking into companies who had never seen a PC before in their lives and explaining to them the value and having these guys going, 'Well, son, I got this receptionist right there. I got that secretary. I'm never going to need that s*** ever.'" His edge back then came from teaching those businesses how to actually put the technology to work. Cuban sees the same pattern repeating with AI, which is exactly the advice he gives the young people in his life: "When I'm telling my kids and kids going to school what should I do? What should I do? I'd be like AI research learn all you can about AI but learn more on how to implement them in companies right because to your point companies don't understand how to implement all that right now." Mark Cuban points to a shift already underway: "You got the head of Microsoft saying software is dead cuz everything's going to be customized to your unique utilization." The question that follows, he argues, is simple: "Who's going to do it for them? Particularly small to medium-size businesses." And the scale of that gap is enormous: "There are 33 million companies in this country. 30 million of them are soloreneurs… There are only, you know, there are millions of companies that have 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, 500 people that aren't going to have AI budgets, aren't going to have AI experts. This is where kids getting hired coming out of college are really going to have a unique opportunity." Cuban's prescription for students is to spend their free time getting hands-on now — learning to produce video, learning to customize a model, so they can walk into any business and prove their value: "Let me show you how to benefit you. That is every single job that's going to be available for kids coming out of school because every single company needs that."

Big Brain AI

10,639 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад