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Markets are setting up for higher short-term. If everyone is bearish, it's time to be bullish. 1. Catalysts for this week 0:00 - lululemon earnings after the bell today, job report Friday pre-market 2. S&P 500 1:37 - analysis, weekly bearish divergences forming, but daily is showing a bull-flag....

34,234 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Bitcoin closed green today at 0.62%, but I'm watching price stall right below 79,000 with resistance capped near 82K, just above TBO resistance at 81,788. RSI has been confirmed overbought for eight straight days now, which is due for a pullback, even though on-balance volume still looks strongly bullish. My targets if this rolls over are the 0.786 fib near 76,700 first, then the 0.618 near 72,200, and I'll treat any real dip there as a buy the dip moment rather than a reason to panic. Ethereum closed up 2.63% and is still respecting resistance even with RSI overbought and volume fading, so I'm not ruling out a break higher before the eventual reset. Stablecoin dominance is exceptionally oversold and due for a snap back, Bitcoin dominance is showing higher highs with lower highs on RSI, and Solana dominance just had a huge breakout move on a 4.7% pop. Over on TradFi, DXY confirmed a strong bearish downtrend after losing its support line, USDJPY is still consolidating bullish without tagging its fast line yet, and EURUSD is cracking on a bearish RSI reset. I'm still taking a buy the dip approach on S&P Futures into Jackson Hole, along with Tesla and SpaceX, while oil, gold, silver, platinum, and copper all look set up for pullbacks that turn into buying opportunities, and uranium just printed a textbook shooting star reversal at the top of its move. Running through my picks, CVX is exceptionally overbought after a third breakout, DOG is stretched near 94 RSI on short liquidations, and gram, DOT, QNT, FLR, and LUNC all confirmed close shorts pointing to fast line pullbacks. NEAR and S both just confirmed open longs as bullish reversal signals, while POL and STABLE are flashing bearish close longs and breakdowns to watch. On the Club and YouTube Picks side, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and OKLO all carry bearish warnings pointing to pullback levels, ORCL and LIT are showing bullish reversal setups, and CRWD, ZETA, and CIFR all look like buy the dip candidates as they work toward resistance. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance 05:26 Ethereum Holds Bullish Trend As Volume Fades 08:23 Solana Dominance Breaks Out On Big Volume 11:57 DXY Confirms Bearish Downtrend Below Support 14:14 S&P Futures Signal Buy The Dip Ahead 16:36 Gold Faces Pullback Risk Before Bullish Continuation 19:24 Uranium Market Signals Shooting Star Reversal 26:25 Convex Finance Breaks Out To Overbought Extreme 35:52 Sonic Confirms Bullish Reversal After Open Long 41:35 Apple Risks Pullback To 285 Support 46:09 Nvidia Flashes Bearish Warning On Close Longs 57:32 CrowdStrike Stock Signals Buy The Dip Opportunity

Aaron Dishner

12,520 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce

I spent 2 hours of my weekend reviewing hundreds of charts so you don't have to. These are the setups that stood out and what you should focus on this week ✌️ The market continues to consolidate rather than break. The S&P 500 keeps absorbing selling pressure. Buyers continue defending key support while most of the Magnificent Seven are now through earnings. Software and semiconductors are waiting for catalysts this week, with AMD, SNDK, WDC and DDOG likely setting the tone. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: July finished as an inside month after the explosive April-May rally. That is constructive, not bearish. Buyers continue defending the 7350 area, producing another higher low. Above 7550 opens the door to 7600, then a retest of the all-time highs. Above that, 7800-8000 becomes the longer-term objective. Below 7350 would shift the technical picture. $QQQ: Reclaimed the 9-day moving average but remains below the 20 and 50-day. The next few sessions should determine whether this is the start of a trend reversal or simply another bounce within the recent downtrend. $IWM: Still trading inside a well-defined channel. Nothing has changed technically. A break above the channel is needed before it becomes attractive again. $SMH: Trading similarly to IWM with lower highs and lower lows. AMD, SNDK and WDC earnings could become the catalyst that finally resolves the current range. $AAPL: Huge post-earnings gap lower after being one of the strongest charts beforehand. If buyers begin filling the gap and reclaim 320, the technical picture improves significantly with potential for a move back toward the highs. Failure opens room toward 290. $NFLX: A great example of how strong charts can recover from earnings gaps. The previous gap has already been filled. Holding above 75 would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for another leg higher. $MSFT: One of the strongest charts after earnings. The market rewarded management’s AI spending, validating the CapEx story. Above 467-470 would reinforce the breakout and keep momentum pointing higher. $GOOGL: Strong earnings recovery brought price back to the same trendline that rejected price in mid-July. Above 360 targets 375. A break above 375 would put all-time highs back in play. $AMZN: Excellent post-earnings reaction and back near all-time highs. A couple of inside days followed by a breakout could set up a move toward 273-275, with 300 becoming the longer-term objective. $TSLA: Still one of the weakest mega-cap charts. Trend remains firmly lower and it’s difficult to find a technical edge. SpaceX earnings may influence sentiment, but for now this remains a hands-off trade. $NVDA: A couple of constructive sessions but still waiting for a true momentum shift. AMD, SNDK and WDC earnings could become an important catalyst for the semiconductor group. Better than Tesla technically, but still not a high-conviction setup. $AXTI: Finished Friday up roughly 20%. One of the stronger photonics names to monitor if AI infrastructure names begin regaining momentum. $AMBA: Buyout rumors fueled the recent move. Watching the 90 area to see whether buyers can build on speculation or if momentum fades. $VRT: Nice Friday bounce but still trapped in a heavy downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Needs far more evidence before becoming interesting again. $BABA: Quietly improving. Established a higher low and reclaimed 120 after bottoming near 90. Earnings later this month could provide another catalyst if the uptrend continues. $GTLB: One of the cleaner software setups. Watching 35 as a well-defined breakout level. $WDC: Earnings this week alongside SNDK will likely determine the next move for the memory group. Pulling back from highs but could become a sector leader if results are well received. $OSCR: Quietly consolidating near all-time highs. Above 31.5-32 could trigger another breakout leg. $V: Continues acting well near highs. One of the stronger financial names. Watching for continuation toward fresh highs. $SNOW: Broke above 300 before pulling back. A reclaim of 300 would put this back on the radar, especially if software improves after DDOG earnings. $BA: Earnings gap was bought aggressively. Consolidating well and showing resilience after results. $CRWV: Remains in a heavy downtrend, riding declining moving averages. No reason to get involved until the technical picture changes. $SPCX: First earnings report as a public company arrives this week. Trading well below the IPO price and deep below prior highs. Earnings will likely determine whether this finally begins carving out a bottom. $MU: A couple of encouraging sessions but still a difficult chart. Closely tied to SNDK and WDC earnings. Waiting for confirmation before becoming constructive. $COIN: Sitting on a major 140 support level after an 11% decline. A break below could accelerate downside, while a strong defense would improve the technical picture. $RDDT: Sharp post-earnings selloff. Either buyers reclaim the highs and fill the gap, or the breakdown continues. Waiting for confirmation. $RBLX: Clear double top around 145-150 followed by persistent selling. Trend remains lower and there is no technical edge yet. Overall theme: The market remains constructive despite recent volatility. The S&P 500 continues to build higher lows while defending the critical 7350 area, suggesting buyers still control the bigger picture. Most of the Magnificent Seven are now through earnings, shifting attention toward semiconductors, software and AI infrastructure. This week’s earnings from AMD, SNDK, WDC, DDOG and SPCX could become the next major catalysts. MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, OSCR, V, WDC and SNOW are some of my favorite charts going into next week. 🖤

spacemonkey

19,842 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Warren Buffett just called out America's gambling problem, the banks are printing money like it's going out of style, and we're telling you why AI is about to become the defining political issue of 2026. Also, Mike Novogratz (Mike Novogratz) turned a $65 million land bet in Texas into one of the most powerful AI infrastructure plays in the country, and this week we're breaking down exactly how he did it and where it's going. All on this week's episode of All Things Markets. (All Things Markets) (SALT) Watch on X, YouTube, and Spotify. Timestamps 0:00 Mooch and Novo are back!! 0:45 The banks are printing money, best quarters ever 2:21 Is Trump's chaos actually good for bank trading desks? 7:10 Kevin Warsh update: Hawkish rhetoric, but doesn't look that way 9:04 AI and inflation debate: Is chip demand a temporary supply shock or persistent inflation? 11:36 Galaxy morphs into AI landlord one gigawatt at a time 18:31 "Data center equals AI, AI bad": How political perception is driving the backlash 19:45 Entrepreneurship lesson: SkyBridge's pivot and why your business can't look the same 20:44 Warren Buffett just called out America's gambling problem 24:37 Bullish or Bearish 1: Bitcoin trades back above $70,000 before it trades again below $60,000 27:52 Bullish or Bearish 2: Lionel Messi and Argentina repeat as World Cup champions 31:30 Bullish or Bearish 3 & 4: The next Fed move is a rate hike & SpaceX remains below its IPO price in 6 months 32:35 Bullish or Bearish 5: The Iran war ends before the end of Trump’s presidency 33:15 Bullish or Bearish 6: Putin is ousted from power within 2 years 34:00 What made you smile this week?

Anthony Scaramucci

52,623 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

I spent 2 hours of my Saturday reviewing hundreds of charts. These are the setups that stood out and what you should focus on this week. Software is starting to wake up. Semiconductors are taking a breather. The next rotation may already be underway. $MSFT finally broke out. $NBIS is setting up near a key trigger. $PANW $CRWD earnings could be one of the most important software reports of the week. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: Strong week overall. Thursday breakout above 7517 held. Friday was indecisive. Above 7600 opens continuation. Failure there could mean a pullback toward 7550–7500. $QQQ: Similar setup to SPX. Still leading higher but extended from the 9-day. Above Friday highs keeps momentum intact. $IWM: Still trapped in a range between 287 and 293. Less clear than SPX and QQQ. Watching for either a breakout or rotation into small caps. $BTC: No trade for now. All major moving averages remain stacked bearishly. Needs reclaim of the 200-day around 80k. $SMH: Momentum has slowed. Four straight days of consolidation. Software may be attracting capital away from semis short term. $IGV: One of the most important charts right now. Closed above the 200-day for the first time since January. Holding 100 would be very bullish. $AAPL: Continues to surprise. Every dip gets bought. 310 remains the key level. Below that opens a test of the 9-day around 306. $MSFT: One of the strongest setups on the board. Broke above 433 and 442. Looking for continuation toward the 200-day near 458 and eventually gap-fill toward 480. $NVDA: Ugly close Friday. Failed reclaim of the 9-day. Better opportunities elsewhere for now. Watching 200 below. $GOOGL: Weak close. Could test the earnings gap near 365. Hands off until strength returns above 385. $AMZN: Failed breakout attempt. Still above key moving averages. Above 275 opens ATHs and potentially 300. $TSLA: Building a range. 450–453 is the key breakout area. Above that could trigger a move toward prior highs. $META: Friday was a healthy backtest of the breakout. Above 633 then 645 opens gap-fill potential higher. $AMD: Strong but consolidating. Range here would be healthy after the recent move. $AVGO: Earnings next week. Looking constructive. Above 500 becomes interesting. $SMCI: Strong sympathy move from $DELL earnings. Watching to see if momentum can continue. $QCOM: Failed breakout Friday. Give it time. Watching for renewed strength early in the month. $ARM: One of the strongest semis. Above 356 keeps the trend intact. $INTC: Failed multiple breakout attempts at 125. Consolidation remains constructive. $MU: Strong finish Friday. Holding 960 and reclaiming 980 could open the path toward 1000. $SNDK: Constructive close. Watching 1700 closely. $DELL: Huge earnings move. Now trading inside an earnings range. Break above 430 opens more upside. $NOW: Continues to show strong relative strength. Above 126 could open 150. $IBM: Strong breakout. Watching above 300. $ORCL: Massive momentum shift. Broke the 200-day and exploded higher. One of the stronger enterprise software names right now. $PLTR: Improving. Watching for reclaim and hold above the 200-day. $IREN: Large flag pattern. Above 76–77 could trigger a move toward highs. $ZS: Ugly earnings reaction but trying to recover. $CRWD: Earnings this week. Strong run into the report. $NBIS: One of my favorite setups. Above 233–234 could trigger a significant move. $PANW: Earnings this week. Looking extremely strong. $NET: Recovering sharply after a terrible earnings reaction. Short covering continues. $RDDT: Looking better. Momentum name worth watching. $DDOG: One of the strongest software charts. Earnings gap never filled. Trend remains intact. $FSLR: Solar leadership continues. Above 260 could open 300. $ENPH: Vertical momentum. Watching for continuation. $LITE: Still under pressure. Needs time. $AXTI: Similar to LITE. Momentum has cooled. Overall theme: Software is showing the strongest improvement in relative strength. Semiconductors are consolidating after a huge run. Individual names continue to offer better opportunities than the indices. $MSFT, $NBIS, $PANW, $ORCL, and $NET are some of my favorite charts going into next week.

spacemonkey

225,031 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I spent my Sunday mapping the setups that matter most this shortened week. Tech is still leading this market. Software earnings may decide what happens next. $QCOM is setting up above 242. $ASTS continues to show momentum in the space trade. $ZS software earnings could shift the tone for the entire group. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: Healthy week overall. Reclaimed the 9-day and pushed back above 7500 before fading into Friday’s close. Trend remains intact. A higher low here could set up another breakout attempt above 7500. $QQQ: Still rangebound between roughly 695 and ATHs near 722. Tech leadership remains intact, but there’s a mild double top warning if momentum stalls. $IWM: Constructive range near highs. 270 double bottom held perfectly. Not bearish at all. Still one of the cleaner consolidation setups if rates cooperate. $BTC #BTC: No trade for now. Sitting below major moving averages. Needs 84–85K reclaim before momentum becomes interesting again. $SMH: New ATH Friday despite $NVDA weakness. Semiconductor rotation remains alive. Above 583 opens the door toward 600. $AAPL: Extremely strong. Multiple new highs. 303 is first warning. 300 is must-hold. As long as buyers defend breakout levels, trend remains intact. $MSFT: Harder trade, but very large cup-and-handle structure. Above 530 opens 542. Bigger breakout potential if momentum follows. $AMZN: One of the better big tech setups. Friday was a clean backtest of breakout trendline. Above 270 gets interesting quickly. $GOOGL: Looking tired. 380 reclaim could trigger failed breakdown reversal. Otherwise, not much here. $TSLA: Interesting setup. 420 and 435 are the key levels. Above 435 opens gap-fill toward 442. $NVDA: Weak post-earnings reaction. Pulling back into prior breakout zone around 215–217 and the 20-day. Needs to hold that area. $AMD: New ATH Friday but failed to hold the move. Above 470 could re-ignite momentum. $AVGO: Large range consolidation. Harder trade for now. $NVTS: One of the cleaner semiconductor momentum setups. One-time framing higher. Above 30 keeps continuation alive. $DELL: Fantastic structure. 298 opens 300. Above 300 could accelerate. $QCOM: One of the cleaner setups this week. 242 breakout opens 248–250. $RGTI: Quantum momentum remains alive. Above 27 opens 30+. $QBTS: Similar quantum continuation setup. $AXTI: One of the strongest photonics names right now. Clear leadership. $AAOI: Laggard vs AXTI but above 193 opens 200. $LITE: Looking constructive. 1000 reclaim could trigger momentum. SWKS: Quiet semiconductor strength. Above 83.50 opens 92, then potentially 100. LUNR: One of the stronger space setups. Above 38.30 opens continuation. $RKLB: Failed breakout Friday. Above 140 becomes interesting again. $ASTS: Strong recovery. Hold 100, break 108, and momentum could continue toward ATHs. $SMTC: Big Friday move but messy close. Harder setup. $ZS: Big software earnings this week. Important for group sentiment. $CRWD: Extremely strong. New ATH continuation setup. $PANW: Beautiful one-time framing higher. Momentum remains intact. $NET: Laggard, but could benefit if software earnings surprise positively. $DDOG: Monster move. Gap never backtested. Momentum remains very strong. $SNOW: Earnings this week. Worth watching. ON: Quiet strength. $FSLR: Solar remains hot. Above 260 opens 300 potential. $ENPH: Vertical momentum move. Needs continuation. $ARM: Monster breakout from prior balance. Hold 300 and continuation remains alive. $MRVL: Grinding higher. 200 is the key breakout. NOW: Holding 100 well. Trump positioning narrative still in play. $LLY: Strong above 1000. 1070 breakout could open ATH move. $INTC: Looks ready. Above 123 could trigger fresh highs. LRCX: Strong breakout. Holding above 300 keeps dip-buy thesis alive. $GS: Strong breakout and leadership among banks. $JPM: Reclaiming key moving averages. MS: New ATHs. Very strong bank setup. $IBM: Needs reclaim above 260. $MU: Ugly Friday reversal. Harder trade for now. $SNDK: Better than MU. Above 1530 gets interesting. $WDC: Looking constructive. Above 490 could move toward 500. $COST: Big move but sold off. Harder setup. WMT: Ugly post-earnings reaction. TGT: Holding gains better. Above 128 becomes interesting. If you like this, then ❤️ it! sm

spacemonkey

86,996 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I spent 2 hours of my Saturday reviewing hundreds of charts. These are the setups that stood out and what you should focus on this week. The market continues to rotate rather than break. Semiconductors are starting to recover. Software is losing momentum. The major indices remain less than 1% from all-time highs. $AAPL continues to lead. $NVDA is reclaiming key levels. $SMH is trying to turn higher. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: Second straight green week. Holding the 9-day and 20-day while consolidating in what looks like a bull flag. Above 7580 opens a test of the 7621 all-time high. Above that, 7800+ becomes the next objective. Below 7500 would make me more cautious. $QQQ: Similar setup to SPX. Holding key moving averages and ending the week with a hammer candle. Above 725–726 opens the door toward 740. $IWM: Less convincing than SPX and QQQ. Still trapped inside a range. Hands off until relative strength returns. $IGV: Software is struggling at the 200-day moving average. Two failed attempts higher. Hands off for now. $SMH: Semiconductors are starting to wake up again. Holding the prior breakout area and attempting a double-bottom reversal. One of the more constructive groups going into next week. $BTC: Trying to carve out a bottom. Above 70 would improve the picture. Reclaiming 75 would be a much bigger technical shift. $AAPL: One of my favorite charts. Back testing all-time highs. Above 317.4 opens 320 and potentially new highs. $META: Reclaimed the 200-day moving average. Above 683 opens the door toward 700. $MSFT: Still choppy. No clear edge here yet. $GOOGL: Below all key moving averages. Needs more time. $AMZN: Failed at 250 and back inside its range. Above 250 becomes interesting again. $NFLX: Friday hurt the bullish case. Holding 70 but back below 75–76. Hands off. $NVDA: Strong week. Back above all major moving averages for the first time in weeks. Above 212 could trigger another leg higher. $TSLA: Still holding 400 but capped by the 200-day. Above 418–420 becomes the next meaningful trigger. $AMD: One of the stronger semiconductor charts. Above 560 could accelerate toward new highs. $AVGO: Constructive after the recent recovery. Watching 408–410 for continuation. $CRWV: Strong news but finished with a sharp reversal. Waiting for confirmation. $CROX: Finally broke above 130. Looking for continuation toward fresh highs. $SNDK: Nice recovery after the failed breakdown. Watching a reclaim of 2000. $ABNB: Quietly improving. Watching 150. $MU: Keep it paired with SNDK. Watching 1000 as the key psychological level. $NET: Failed at all-time highs. Watching 280 for a recovery. $HOOD: Rejected at 120. A reclaim would put it back on the radar. $DELL: Watching 460 for a continuation breakout. $DDOG: Watching 270. Still constructive if software finds its footing. $SPCX: Weak close near the lows. Watching for continuation lower if Friday’s low breaks. Overall theme: The broader market remains healthy. Semiconductors are beginning to recover while software is losing momentum after a strong run. Mega-cap tech is regaining leadership, and the S&P 500 still looks positioned for a test of all-time highs as long as 7500 continues to hold. AAPL, NVDA, AMD, SMH, META, and SNDK are some of my favorite charts going into next week.

spacemonkey

28,980 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

I spent my Sunday mapping the setups that matter most this week. The AI trade has carried this market. NVDA may decide what happens next. $NVDA earnings are Wednesday. $MSFT is setting up above 433. $ASTS may be one of the strongest momentum names on the board. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: Friday was a healthy reset. Pulled back into the 9-day and held right above 7400. Trend remains intact. Below 7400 opens 7330, then the 7275–7300 bounce zone near the 20-day. $QQQ: Similar setup to SPX. Checkback into the 9-day held. Trend still strong. 722 ATH is the breakout level to watch. $IWM: Looking heavier than SPX/QQQ. Broke the 9-day and 20-day. Below 275 opens 270, then potentially the 50-day near 264. $SMH: Leadership cracked a bit Friday. Closed below the 9-day. $NVDA earnings will likely decide the next move for semis and broader tech. $NVDA: Big one this week. Slightly extended but still in clear uptrend. 217 prior breakout zone + 9-day should be support. Earnings Wednesday will likely dictate market tone. $MSFT: One of the favorite setups this week. Above 433 opens 442. Above that, large gap-fill potential higher. $AAPL: Strong breakout to new highs. Above 303 opens continuation. As long as the 9-day holds, trend remains healthy. $GOOGL: Looking strong. 400 is the key pivot. Hold that and upside remains in play. $AMZN: Starting to weaken. Below both the 9-day and 20-day makes this hands off for now. $TSLA: Ugly Friday. 415–416 is must-hold. 407 200-day is final major support. Below that, hands off. $AVGO: Inside day, but constructive. Likely reacts to $NVDA earnings. Watching closely. $AMD: Pulling back into $NVDA earnings. Hard to get aggressive until semis react. $CRWD: One of the cleanest software momentum names. Above 600 could open new highs. $PANW: Beautiful one-time framing higher. Momentum remains strong into June earnings. $DDOG: New highs. Holding 200 keeps momentum intact. Above 210 could accelerate. $NET: Harder chart. Better software names elsewhere. $SNOW: Looking better into earnings later this month. Could continue running. $MDB: Watch reclaim of the 200-day for bigger move. $ZS: Bottoming attempt. Could see short covering into earnings. $APP: Interesting reversal setup. 500–530 key area. Could become a larger recovery move. $NOW: Trump positioning headline sparked short covering. Risk/reward interesting here. $BIDU: Earnings play. Above 152 opens 165. $HD: Terrible chart into earnings. Needs fundamental shift. LOW: Same as HD. Weak and accelerating lower. $VRT: Strong uptrend. Attractive earnings setup. WMT: Quiet strength. Earnings could trigger breakout. $DE: Rangebound. Trades with $CAT, worth watching. ZM: Quiet recovery setup. Watching earnings reaction. SEDG: Huge momentum candles. Watch continuation above prior highs. $ENPH: Solar improving. 53–55 breakout zone matters. $FSLR: Strong post-earnings. 240 opens 250+, gap above near 265. $AXTI: Clear uptrend. Dip recovery looks constructive. $AAOI: Similar constructive setup. $LITE: Coming back well after earnings. Higher-low setup. $OXY: Oil strength notable. Broke trendline. Could continue if geopolitical risk rises. DVN: Range breakout potential toward 50+. $USO: Clear strength. If Iran escalates, this could move aggressively. $XOM: Strong Friday. Reclaimed key levels. $CVX: Oil strength continuation. $SNDK: Bounce Friday. Above 1450 becomes interesting. $MU: Looking a bit heavier. NVDA could be catalyst. ALAB: Looking much better. 240 is the key breakout level. ASTS: One of the top watches this week. Space theme + momentum. Hold 83, break 86, huge continuation potential. $RKLB: Inside day setup. Above 130 opens fresh highs. $GS: Strong breakout and retest. 940–945 must hold. MS: Better-looking bank setup. $COIN: Still rangebound between support/resistance. Harder trade. $MSTR: Choppy, hands off. $ARM: Ugly Friday pullback.

spacemonkey

103,836 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

BTC tagged the fast line at $69,380 and closed up 6%. This is manipulation — here's why. Volume: Friday $2.4B, Monday $2.13B, Wednesday $2.09B. Every pump weaker than the last. None exceeded the 30-day moving average. OBV declining all month — yesterday barely caused a pause. RSI bounced from 25.61 to 51.69 with a TBT bullish divergence in process, not yet confirmed. Bear flag still valid. To invalidate it, need a close above $69K. We didn't close above $69K. Targets: $49K, $38,500, $31K. On the weekly, this is the same green bounce week we saw in 2022 before the next 30% flush. ETH closed at $2,057. Fast line is $2,061. Pumped 11% wick to wick and couldn't close inside the cloud. Volume $1.4B vs. $1.5B MA. Bull trap. Stablecoin dominance printed a second TBT bearish divergence and wicked into the TBO cloud for the first time since Jan 29th. Short-term positive for crypto. Macro still bullish on all four cloud lines — no blow-off top yet. Others dominance closed red while everything was pumping. Second TBT bearish divergence confirmed. If others can't outperform on a 6% BTC day, you know what's next. TradFi better post-State of the Union, but I'm not trusting the follow-through. NVDA broke out of cloud compression at $195. Tesla closed above resistance with a TBT bullish divergence. GameStop's OBV broke through October resistance — targets $25.30, $28, $35.80. VIX printed a TBT bearish divergence, first since October 2023. Could mark a VIX top and give equities a short-term breather. S&P open long confirmed but still below TBO resistance at 69.52. DOT pumped 41% wick to wick on 6x average volume. UNI up 28%. Manipulation. ADA +14% TBT bullish divergence. LINK +13%. NEAR +21%. SOL closed inside the cloud with volume above the MA — bear flag may need adjusting, macro still bearish. PIPPIN fell 8% while everything pumped — RSI bearish divergence vs. the Feb 14th high. ICP, AERO, HYPE, CFX all tagged the fast line — solid short entries. SKY wicked above TBO resistance at .069, didn't close there. XMR +7% TBT bullish divergence, still targeting $100. If 60K was the bottom, I'll adjust. But the 2022 parallels are too strong to ignore. Macro bearish. Next target $49K.

Aaron Dishner

16,304 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

I spent and hour of my Saturday reviewing hundreds of charts. These are the setups that stood out and what you should focus on this week Friday changed the tone of this market. The AI trade is under pressure. Software is pulling back. Relative strength is starting to stand out. $GOOGL held up. $AAPL barely cracked. $C continues to show strength while growth stocks unwind. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: One of the ugliest days we've seen in months. Closed near the lows after breaking the 20-day. 7330-7290 is the first support zone. Below that opens 7273 and potentially 7150. $QQQ: Nearly 5% down on Friday. AI leadership is under pressure. Watching 695 support closely. $IWM: Back to 280 support. Watching whether this becomes a swing low or just another bounce that gets sold. $BTC: Still under pressure. Failed reclaim of the 200-day. No clear setup here. $SMH: Nearly 9% down Friday. Semis finally cracked. Watching for either a relief bounce or continuation lower. $MSFT: Failed after briefly reclaiming the 200-day. Still holding trend support but needs buyers soon. $AAPL: One of the stronger mega caps. Technical damage is limited compared to the rest of the market. Worth watching. $GOOGL: One of the better-looking charts. Holding the earnings gap and showing relative strength. Above 373 could trigger a relief move. $AMZN: Broke the 50-day and looks vulnerable. Could see a move toward the 200-day near 232. $NVDA: Momentum has faded. Sitting on the 50-day near 203. Must hold. $TSLA: Significant technical damage. Lost the 200-day, 50-day, 20-day, and 9-day. Needs major repair work. $META: Still holding the lower end of its range. 600 remains the key level. $AMD: Looks like it wants to fill the gap lower. Semis remain under pressure. $AAPL: Relative strength remains notable. One of the few mega caps still acting well. $NFLX: Quiet relative strength. Not an easy trade, but worth noting. $LLY: Strong healthcare leadership. Above 1165 opens another attempt at highs. Must hold 1100. $JPM: Financials are starting to show relative strength. $C: One of the stronger bank charts. Pullback remains very controlled. $WFC: Held up well and continues to show relative strength. $GS: Large engulfing pullback. Watching for stabilization. $GE: Rotational strength worth monitoring. $CROX: Continues to hold the 9-day and trend higher. Relative strength stands out. $SNOW: Pulling back into the 9-day after earnings. Watching for support. $DDOG: Pulling back with software but still one of the stronger charts in the group. $PLTR: Rejected at the 200-day. Needs more work. $IBM: Back below the 9-day. Harder chart for now. $DELL: Pulling back into the 9-day after earnings. Watching for buyers to step in. $HOOD: Pulling back into range support. $CRWD: Watching 670 as a potential support area after earnings. $NET: Backtesting the 9-day. One of the better software recovery stories. $BE: Still consolidating near highs. No major damage yet. $MU: Sharp pullback. Watching for a bounce near current levels. $WDC: Big pullback after a huge run. $SNDK: Pulling back but no major technical damage yet. Watching closely. Overall theme: Friday changed the character of the market. The focus shifts from chasing momentum to identifying what held up during the selloff. $GOOGL, $AAPL, $C, $WFC, $CROX, and select software names are showing the best relative strength. For now, caution is warranted. Let the market prove it wants to bounce before getting aggressive.

spacemonkey

37,634 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap

Aaron Dishner

10,593 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

My Bitcoin Treasury discussion with Joe Burnett, MSBA. 0:00 – Intro 1:00 – First priority as Director of Bitcoin Strategy 3:11 – Should Bitcoin companies copy MSTR’s preferreds? 5:02 – Structuring credit: BTC Ratings from 2 to 10 6:25 – Long-term CAGR for Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 8:28 – Why Bitcoin has fewer risks than stocks 10:36 – The global index with no counterparty risk 15:14 – Is Bitcoin a global productivity index? 16:56 – Will MSTR join the S&P 500? 18:14 – Why Vanguard owns MSTR 19:23 – Unlocking passive capital for Bitcoin 21:14 – Why BTC companies magnetize capital 23:24 – Mag 7 adoption playbook: fast vs. slow 25:47 – Most CEOs don’t want the money 27:15 – Who should adopt Bitcoin—and who won’t 29:20 – Why MSTR is going all-in on preferreds 31:21 – Preferreds are better than convertibles 32:32 – Will BTC companies still trade above NAV in bear markets? 34:09 – Why 2022 was a crypto-catalyzed bear market 35:14 – The difference between 1.1x and 100x leverage 37:07 – How to defend BTC NAV with credit instruments 39:14 – How to create a Bitcoin short squeeze 41:20 – Why shorts don’t have the courage 43:20 – The future of BTC-backed credit and equity 45:04 – A new theory of Bitcoin corporate finance 49:30 – Copy MSTR: it’s good for everyone 50:26 – Harvard’s outdated Bitcoin case study 52:16 – Why the smartest firms are making bad moves 54:16 – Why academics ignore Strategy’s success 55:15 – How the world could look in four years 57:09 – Final thoughts and wrap-up

Michael Saylor

484,592 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce