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Massive hedge fund algorithms may be distorting oil prices behind the scenes. Economist Philip Pilkington argues that large financial institutions can influence AI-driven trading by flooding markets with specific narratives and keywords that automated systems are trained to react to. Those self-reinforcing algorithms can amplify moves, squeeze positions, and... show more

Mario Nawfal

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The real price of oil may be hiding in plain sight. Economist & Investment Strategist Philip Pilkington argues the physical crack spread tells a very different story from headline crude prices. Refinery margins suggest the market is still behaving as though oil costs roughly $100 to $110 a barrel, even as futures point much lower. In Pilkington's view, physical demand is exposing what financial markets are obscuring. Philip Pilkington

The real price of oil may be hiding in plain sight. Economist & Investment Strategist Philip Pilkington argues the physical crack spread tells a very different story from headline crude prices. Refinery margins suggest the market is still behaving as though oil costs roughly $100 to $110 a barrel, even as futures point much lower. In Pilkington's view, physical demand is exposing what financial markets are obscuring. Philip Pilkington

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Philip Pilkington explains how Donald Trump and the mainstream media are part of the oil market MANIPULATION to keep prices down: ‘A lot of oil market trading is now done by algorithms, not by people. So these are text recognition-based algorithms, not unlike the AI program that you use to look up research. And it’s a it’s a garbage in garbage out situation. If Trump posts enough keywords in his Truth Social, If Bloomberg News is able to recycle these so-called ‘high trust’ media sources, the trading algorithm will respond to those keywords.’ —Philip Pilkington on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇

Philip Pilkington explains how Donald Trump and the mainstream media are part of the oil market MANIPULATION to keep prices down: ‘A lot of oil market trading is now done by algorithms, not by people. So these are text recognition-based algorithms, not unlike the AI program that you use to look up research. And it’s a it’s a garbage in garbage out situation. If Trump posts enough keywords in his Truth Social, If Bloomberg News is able to recycle these so-called ‘high trust’ media sources, the trading algorithm will respond to those keywords.’ —Philip Pilkington on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇

Going Underground

17,512 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇸🇦 A refinery is on fire... and oil prices went DOWN. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the madness: the algorithms running the oil market feed on official Washington statements, and barely glance at the actual region burning. Which means a White House headline about calm outweighs actual flames on actual infrastructure. The machines are trading the story, and the barrels are keeping score for later. Philip Pilkington

🇸🇦 A refinery is on fire... and oil prices went DOWN. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the madness: the algorithms running the oil market feed on official Washington statements, and barely glance at the actual region burning. Which means a White House headline about calm outweighs actual flames on actual infrastructure. The machines are trading the story, and the barrels are keeping score for later. Philip Pilkington

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🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 Is China about to help bring down fuel prices? Economist Philip Pilkington argues China's refineries coming back online will squeeze the blown-out crack spread back down and push crude up, rebalancing a market that's been wildly distorted. If Chinese imports snap back the way Philip expects, it could prove the "collapsing demand" story was never real. Philip Pilkington

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 Is China about to help bring down fuel prices? Economist Philip Pilkington argues China's refineries coming back online will squeeze the blown-out crack spread back down and push crude up, rebalancing a market that's been wildly distorted. If Chinese imports snap back the way Philip expects, it could prove the "collapsing demand" story was never real. Philip Pilkington

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117,684 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest lie in global energy markets may be starting to fall apart. For months, we've been told the oil market is under control, but economist Philip Pilkington says that's becoming impossible to sustain. His argument isn't simply that oil prices have been manipulated; it's that the entire strategy is beginning to collide with physical reality. Philip believes officials have been able to suppress futures prices through a combination of AI-driven trading, carefully crafted political messaging, and massive short positions entering the market at key moments. The result? A paper market that looks far calmer than the physical energy market underneath it. But futures contracts don't put diesel into trucks, and optimistic headlines don't refill storage tanks. According to Philip, that's where the strategy is starting to unravel. China is returning to global oil markets, refining margins remain unusually high, physical fuel markets are tightening, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to shrink. Every additional disruption puts more pressure on a system that's already running with far less room for error than it had a few months ago. Philip believes the Trump administration had a plan to carry the energy market safely through the midterms. It relied on temporary diplomacy with Iran, lower Chinese demand and continued releases from America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then Trump tore up the MOU, China started buying more oil again, and the assumptions behind the entire strategy began to fall apart. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest lie in global energy markets may be starting to fall apart. For months, we've been told the oil market is under control, but economist Philip Pilkington says that's becoming impossible to sustain. His argument isn't simply that oil prices have been manipulated; it's that the entire strategy is beginning to collide with physical reality. Philip believes officials have been able to suppress futures prices through a combination of AI-driven trading, carefully crafted political messaging, and massive short positions entering the market at key moments. The result? A paper market that looks far calmer than the physical energy market underneath it. But futures contracts don't put diesel into trucks, and optimistic headlines don't refill storage tanks. According to Philip, that's where the strategy is starting to unravel. China is returning to global oil markets, refining margins remain unusually high, physical fuel markets are tightening, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues to shrink. Every additional disruption puts more pressure on a system that's already running with far less room for error than it had a few months ago. Philip believes the Trump administration had a plan to carry the energy market safely through the midterms. It relied on temporary diplomacy with Iran, lower Chinese demand and continued releases from America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Then Trump tore up the MOU, China started buying more oil again, and the assumptions behind the entire strategy began to fall apart. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

387,423 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇮🇷 Forget the oil narratives. Watch the inventories. Philip Pilkington says months of claims that Iranian and Gulf tankers would unleash a huge wave of pent-up oil supply never matched what actually happened. “We’d be swimming in oil.” Instead, diesel remains under severe pressure and inventories remain depleted. Pilkington’s point is almost aggressively simple: ignore the dramatic tanker stories and count barrels. “There’s just a certain number of barrels of oil that we have, and there’s a certain number of barrels of oil that we use.” Markets appear to have figured that out. The promised glut never arrived. Philip Pilkington

🇮🇷 Forget the oil narratives. Watch the inventories. Philip Pilkington says months of claims that Iranian and Gulf tankers would unleash a huge wave of pent-up oil supply never matched what actually happened. “We’d be swimming in oil.” Instead, diesel remains under severe pressure and inventories remain depleted. Pilkington’s point is almost aggressively simple: ignore the dramatic tanker stories and count barrels. “There’s just a certain number of barrels of oil that we have, and there’s a certain number of barrels of oil that we use.” Markets appear to have figured that out. The promised glut never arrived. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

56,433 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸 What happens if the world suddenly loses a large share of its oil supply? Economist Philip Pilkington says governments have already discussed emergency plans that could include fuel rationing, QR codes to control who can buy fuel, and even using the military to transport children to school to reduce civilian fuel use. "We have a pretty good template for this in the lockdowns." Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 What happens if the world suddenly loses a large share of its oil supply? Economist Philip Pilkington says governments have already discussed emergency plans that could include fuel rationing, QR codes to control who can buy fuel, and even using the military to transport children to school to reduce civilian fuel use. "We have a pretty good template for this in the lockdowns." Philip Pilkington

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89,884 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸 Economist Philip Pilkington says the Treasury intervened directly in the bond market as interest rates approached what he calls a potential crisis point. The problem? The Fed is supposed to control monetary conditions. The Treasury is now effectively stepping into that territory by issuing short-term debt and using the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. Pilkington's argument is not that the move was illegal. It's that the optics are terrible. If the Treasury has to intervene because rates are spiraling, while simultaneously appearing to challenge the Fed's role, markets can start asking a much bigger question: Who is actually in control of U.S. financial policy? Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 Economist Philip Pilkington says the Treasury intervened directly in the bond market as interest rates approached what he calls a potential crisis point. The problem? The Fed is supposed to control monetary conditions. The Treasury is now effectively stepping into that territory by issuing short-term debt and using the proceeds to buy longer-term bonds. Pilkington's argument is not that the move was illegal. It's that the optics are terrible. If the Treasury has to intervene because rates are spiraling, while simultaneously appearing to challenge the Fed's role, markets can start asking a much bigger question: Who is actually in control of U.S. financial policy? Philip Pilkington

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65,356 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Philip Pilkington EXPOSES how Donald Trump and corporate news outlets MANIPULATED MARKETS via trading algorithms to keep oil prices suppressed: ‘So Trump said that they have full control over the Strait of Hormuz. Now to me and you, that looks like a clownish thing to say. It looks ridiculous. You’d think why would anyone say that? That’s a ridiculous thing to say. Because robots don’t have a sense of humor, they’ll see that and they’ll give that a weight in their trading algorithm. The big one was the oil glut, three or four weeks ago, when there was a partial reopening. There was never really a partial reopening, but the financial headlines all said that there was going to be an oil glut. Now, anyone with a brain would realise that there would be no oil glut. It made absolutely no sense. The point wasn’t even to convince people, the point was to convince algorithms. And if the algorithms see words like ‘oil glut’, ‘we’ve gained full control over the strait’, ‘ceasefire’, ‘peace deal’… The algorithm will put weights on these keywords if they’re from quote unquote trusted news sources, and then they’ll trade accordingly.’ Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇 Philip Pilkington

Philip Pilkington EXPOSES how Donald Trump and corporate news outlets MANIPULATED MARKETS via trading algorithms to keep oil prices suppressed: ‘So Trump said that they have full control over the Strait of Hormuz. Now to me and you, that looks like a clownish thing to say. It looks ridiculous. You’d think why would anyone say that? That’s a ridiculous thing to say. Because robots don’t have a sense of humor, they’ll see that and they’ll give that a weight in their trading algorithm. The big one was the oil glut, three or four weeks ago, when there was a partial reopening. There was never really a partial reopening, but the financial headlines all said that there was going to be an oil glut. Now, anyone with a brain would realise that there would be no oil glut. It made absolutely no sense. The point wasn’t even to convince people, the point was to convince algorithms. And if the algorithms see words like ‘oil glut’, ‘we’ve gained full control over the strait’, ‘ceasefire’, ‘peace deal’… The algorithm will put weights on these keywords if they’re from quote unquote trusted news sources, and then they’ll trade accordingly.’ Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇 Philip Pilkington

Going Underground

24,356 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Philip Pilkington believes the biggest mistake Washington could make is targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Not because it would fail to inflict damage. But because it could lock the global economy into a crisis that lasts far longer than the war itself. According to Philip, oil markets have remained surprisingly calm because investors still assume escalation can be contained. He argues that assumption disappears the moment energy infrastructure becomes a battlefield. His point is that repairing pipelines, export terminals and refineries takes months, sometimes more than a year. Every strike extends the disruption. Even if the fighting ends quickly, the economic consequences don't. Philip also believes Washington has relied on the ability to repeatedly de-escalate whenever oil prices threatened to spike. If that option disappears, he argues, markets will be forced to confront risks they have largely ignored. His warning goes beyond oil. He believes a prolonged energy shock would hit major importers like Japan first, expose deeper cracks in the global financial system, and eventually put pressure on the U.S. dollar itself. In his view, striking Iran's energy infrastructure wouldn't end the crisis. It would simply make it much harder to stop. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Philip Pilkington believes the biggest mistake Washington could make is targeting Iran's energy infrastructure. Not because it would fail to inflict damage. But because it could lock the global economy into a crisis that lasts far longer than the war itself. According to Philip, oil markets have remained surprisingly calm because investors still assume escalation can be contained. He argues that assumption disappears the moment energy infrastructure becomes a battlefield. His point is that repairing pipelines, export terminals and refineries takes months, sometimes more than a year. Every strike extends the disruption. Even if the fighting ends quickly, the economic consequences don't. Philip also believes Washington has relied on the ability to repeatedly de-escalate whenever oil prices threatened to spike. If that option disappears, he argues, markets will be forced to confront risks they have largely ignored. His warning goes beyond oil. He believes a prolonged energy shock would hit major importers like Japan first, expose deeper cracks in the global financial system, and eventually put pressure on the U.S. dollar itself. In his view, striking Iran's energy infrastructure wouldn't end the crisis. It would simply make it much harder to stop. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

271,093 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇲 Philip Pilkington: the AI BUBBLE may be bursting right before the midterms He points to PIMCO dumping 50% of its AI debt and thinks that helped trigger the selloff. Pilkington goes further: He thinks markets were already on the edge, and some investors may have decided to let the air out NOW, with Americans heading to the polls watching their 401(k)s fall. That political motive is his theory, not established fact. But the timing is brutal. A market crash days before an election is not background noise. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇲 Philip Pilkington: the AI BUBBLE may be bursting right before the midterms He points to PIMCO dumping 50% of its AI debt and thinks that helped trigger the selloff. Pilkington goes further: He thinks markets were already on the edge, and some investors may have decided to let the air out NOW, with Americans heading to the polls watching their 401(k)s fall. That political motive is his theory, not established fact. But the timing is brutal. A market crash days before an election is not background noise. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

88,405 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce

🇺🇸 The advisors keep saying "Sir, it's under control" and Trump keeps believing them. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the SPR is masking a brewing disaster while energy prices stay artificially suppressed. "The longer you hold these prices down, the quicker the SPR empties." When it runs dry, inflation spikes, rates follow, and nobody in the room warned him. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 The advisors keep saying "Sir, it's under control" and Trump keeps believing them. Economist Philip Pilkington argues the SPR is masking a brewing disaster while energy prices stay artificially suppressed. "The longer you hold these prices down, the quicker the SPR empties." When it runs dry, inflation spikes, rates follow, and nobody in the room warned him. Philip Pilkington

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56,751 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸 Philip Pilkington says the Treasury stepped into the bond market to push long-term yields lower. It worked for about a day. Then yields rose again. The problem is bigger than one failed intervention. The Treasury wants cheaper long-term borrowing, while the Fed is reluctant to cut rates because inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Japan may be forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries, and the ECB is openly warning that the AI boom looks like a bubble. Different institutions. Different incentives. One increasingly stressed financial system. Pilkington's phrase for it is clean and simple: They're fighting gravity. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 Philip Pilkington says the Treasury stepped into the bond market to push long-term yields lower. It worked for about a day. Then yields rose again. The problem is bigger than one failed intervention. The Treasury wants cheaper long-term borrowing, while the Fed is reluctant to cut rates because inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Japan may be forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries, and the ECB is openly warning that the AI boom looks like a bubble. Different institutions. Different incentives. One increasingly stressed financial system. Pilkington's phrase for it is clean and simple: They're fighting gravity. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

87,510 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇪🇺 Grain futures are spiking... and the food crisis is headed straight for grocery store shelves. Philip Pilkington says fertilizer shortages and thin energy reserves are lining up a brutal squeeze on prices, and the official economic numbers lag so far behind that they hide how bad things already are, even as fuel and commodity costs push people into the streets. If the data still looks fine while people are rioting, how late will governments be when it finally catches up? Philip Pilkington

🇪🇺 Grain futures are spiking... and the food crisis is headed straight for grocery store shelves. Philip Pilkington says fertilizer shortages and thin energy reserves are lining up a brutal squeeze on prices, and the official economic numbers lag so far behind that they hide how bad things already are, even as fuel and commodity costs push people into the streets. If the data still looks fine while people are rioting, how late will governments be when it finally catches up? Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

35,398 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce

🇺🇸 What moved energy markets worldwide originated from a single Truth Social post, with zero corroborating evidence. Philip Pilkington traced it back and the numbers don't survive basic scrutiny. "You have to believe those numbers. Now, I don't believe those numbers. I don't think you can get 700 ships through the strait under cover of darkness while the IRGC doesn't even notice, and that's five times the daily capacity of the strait itself." The algorithms traded on it anyway. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 What moved energy markets worldwide originated from a single Truth Social post, with zero corroborating evidence. Philip Pilkington traced it back and the numbers don't survive basic scrutiny. "You have to believe those numbers. Now, I don't believe those numbers. I don't think you can get 700 ships through the strait under cover of darkness while the IRGC doesn't even notice, and that's five times the daily capacity of the strait itself." The algorithms traded on it anyway. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

104,943 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇸🇦🇺🇸 The petrodollar system was built on a simple loop: Gulf states sell oil for dollars, then recycle part of those surpluses into U.S. assets. Philip Pilkington argues the Iran and Yemen wars are disrupting that loop at its source. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳.” The Gulf still holds an enormous stock of dollar assets. But if oil revenues remain impaired, Pilkington says those countries could eventually have to start liquidating some of those assets to support their economies and currency pegs. That would be a remarkable reversal. Instead of Gulf oil revenues creating demand for US assets, a prolonged energy crisis could turn the Gulf into a seller of them. Philip Pilkington

🇸🇦🇺🇸 The petrodollar system was built on a simple loop: Gulf states sell oil for dollars, then recycle part of those surpluses into U.S. assets. Philip Pilkington argues the Iran and Yemen wars are disrupting that loop at its source. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘰𝘧𝘧 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳.” The Gulf still holds an enormous stock of dollar assets. But if oil revenues remain impaired, Pilkington says those countries could eventually have to start liquidating some of those assets to support their economies and currency pegs. That would be a remarkable reversal. Instead of Gulf oil revenues creating demand for US assets, a prolonged energy crisis could turn the Gulf into a seller of them. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

84,084 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 The real price of crude could be around $160, and the only thing holding it down is a managed ceiling. Economist Philip Pilkington says the price you see has drifted far from actual supply and demand, and a full escalation could send it past $200 the moment the grip slips: "They've been able to contain it within the 80 to 90 window." Every cap holds until the day it doesn't, and we may be closing in on that day. Philip Pilkington

🇮🇷 The real price of crude could be around $160, and the only thing holding it down is a managed ceiling. Economist Philip Pilkington says the price you see has drifted far from actual supply and demand, and a full escalation could send it past $200 the moment the grip slips: "They've been able to contain it within the 80 to 90 window." Every cap holds until the day it doesn't, and we may be closing in on that day. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

147,506 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇮🇷 Gulf states are reportedly paying Iran up to 20% of every cargo just to get their oil out of Hormuz. With global reserves drained and crude climbing back to wartime highs, economist and investment strategist Philip Pilkington warns everyone is scrambling to pull energy out before the fighting flares up again... and that rush is pushing markets into DANGEROUS territory. If the next round starts with reserves this low, where does the price at the pump go? Philip Pilkington

🇮🇷 Gulf states are reportedly paying Iran up to 20% of every cargo just to get their oil out of Hormuz. With global reserves drained and crude climbing back to wartime highs, economist and investment strategist Philip Pilkington warns everyone is scrambling to pull energy out before the fighting flares up again... and that rush is pushing markets into DANGEROUS territory. If the next round starts with reserves this low, where does the price at the pump go? Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

53,723 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸 The robots trading oil believe whatever Trump posts. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the machine driving the manipulation. Most oil futures trades are already algorithmic, heading toward all of them, and the algorithms aren't as smart as anyone assumes. Drop a headline saying a deal is imminent or oil is flowing through Hormuz, and the machines read Axios or a presidential post as credible news, then trade on it instantly. Pilkington has been making this case since the Red Sea crisis, back when people called it a lunatic theory. Now Tucker Carlson is citing it, and the theory that sounded crazy is simply how the market works. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 The robots trading oil believe whatever Trump posts. Economist Philip Pilkington explains the machine driving the manipulation. Most oil futures trades are already algorithmic, heading toward all of them, and the algorithms aren't as smart as anyone assumes. Drop a headline saying a deal is imminent or oil is flowing through Hormuz, and the machines read Axios or a presidential post as credible news, then trade on it instantly. Pilkington has been making this case since the Red Sea crisis, back when people called it a lunatic theory. Now Tucker Carlson is citing it, and the theory that sounded crazy is simply how the market works. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

89,116 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸 Most people still don’t realize how close this came to becoming a 1930s-style economic accident. Philip Pilkington says the chain starts with diesel, then runs straight into bond yields, energy markets and private inventories nobody could properly measure. “We are at the beginning of the crisis now.” The scary part is that this may not have been the crisis. It may have been the stress test. Philip Pilkington

🇺🇸 Most people still don’t realize how close this came to becoming a 1930s-style economic accident. Philip Pilkington says the chain starts with diesel, then runs straight into bond yields, energy markets and private inventories nobody could properly measure. “We are at the beginning of the crisis now.” The scary part is that this may not have been the crisis. It may have been the stress test. Philip Pilkington

Mario Nawfal

70,282 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce