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Michael Michael Saylor lays out Strategy: You buy Bitcoin with a variable rate perpetual preferred stock,” creating “what is in essence a nearly risk free swap.” Are you really overpaying at “8% or 9%” if you’re using that capital to buy an asset that keeps appreciating? “There’s only $30...

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11,866 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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JUST IN: Michael Saylor says if he had an extra $1 million he’d put 100% into Bitcoin. “Bitcoin is a digital monopoly on capital, growing 30% a year that you can buy at 1x revenue. It’s the best deal in the world if you’re a financial investor.”
1:28

JUST IN: Michael Saylor says if he had an extra $1 million he’d put 100% into Bitcoin. “Bitcoin is a digital monopoly on capital, growing 30% a year that you can buy at 1x revenue. It’s the best deal in the world if you’re a financial investor.”

The ₿itcoin Therapist

114,037 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.
3:25

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.

Wu Blockchain

12,629 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

JUST IN: Michael Saylor says, "We've bought $11 billion of Bitcoin so far this year, we're already buying at 2x the rate they're able to produce it." "We're at $24 billion run rate... that instrument alone going to buy 2-3x the Bitcoin supply produced by miners." He wants to buy all the Bitcoin produced between now and 2140.
2:13

JUST IN: Michael Saylor says, "We've bought $11 billion of Bitcoin so far this year, we're already buying at 2x the rate they're able to produce it." "We're at $24 billion run rate... that instrument alone going to buy 2-3x the Bitcoin supply produced by miners." He wants to buy all the Bitcoin produced between now and 2140.

Simply Bitcoin

22,327 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Michael Saylor's Michael Saylor EPIC ADVICE for CEOs: "Stop investing in toxic money. Just raise $100 million and buy Bitcoin." at Abundance360 Summit 2024 with Peter H. Diamandis, MD "The Microstrategy story is: We had $600 million enterprise value with $600 million cash - which is a liability. What do we do? We flip it to be $600 million Bitcoin and a $600 million enterprise." "And Bitcoin has been going up 40% a year... So you flip your balance sheet to be an asset, and today the enterprise value of the company is $30 billion." "The enterprise value is up by a factor of x40. It took 42 months... Not 40 years... I haven't graduated from my senior year of Bitcoin." #MichaelSaylor #Bitcoin $MSTR Strategy
9:35

Michael Saylor's Michael Saylor EPIC ADVICE for CEOs: "Stop investing in toxic money. Just raise $100 million and buy Bitcoin." at Abundance360 Summit 2024 with Peter H. Diamandis, MD "The Microstrategy story is: We had $600 million enterprise value with $600 million cash - which is a liability. What do we do? We flip it to be $600 million Bitcoin and a $600 million enterprise." "And Bitcoin has been going up 40% a year... So you flip your balance sheet to be an asset, and today the enterprise value of the company is $30 billion." "The enterprise value is up by a factor of x40. It took 42 months... Not 40 years... I haven't graduated from my senior year of Bitcoin." #MichaelSaylor #Bitcoin $MSTR Strategy

Roger James Hamilton

13,197 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Michael Saylor explains how to 100x your money and says, “in the year, 2045 I think that Bitcoin is worth $13 million, so every bitcoin that you don’t buy is a $13 million cost.”
2:07

Michael Saylor explains how to 100x your money and says, “in the year, 2045 I think that Bitcoin is worth $13 million, so every bitcoin that you don’t buy is a $13 million cost.”

Documenting Saylor

1,021,199 просмотров • 1 год назад

STRC - SAYLOR'S NEW BITCOIN-BACKED CASH MACHINE Welcome to the new era of Bitcoin-backed yield. In this video, I break down STRC, the latest financial weapon engineered by Michael Michael Saylor and Strategy. A variable-rate, senior perpetual preferred stock designed to do one thing exceptionally well: 💰 Turn fiat into Bitcoin at scale... ...while paying you monthly to watch it happen.
19:36

STRC - SAYLOR'S NEW BITCOIN-BACKED CASH MACHINE Welcome to the new era of Bitcoin-backed yield. In this video, I break down STRC, the latest financial weapon engineered by Michael Michael Saylor and Strategy. A variable-rate, senior perpetual preferred stock designed to do one thing exceptionally well: 💰 Turn fiat into Bitcoin at scale... ...while paying you monthly to watch it happen.

Adam Livingston

74,620 просмотров • 1 год назад

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.
0:42

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

Alex 👽

21,172 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Michael Saylor: Keep Your Kidney, but Hold On to Your Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 21 interview with When Shift Happens that Bitcoin is a stronger form of capital preservation than traditional assets. When liquidity is needed, he said people should first sell assets with shorter "half-lives," rather than Bitcoin that could benefit future generations. Saylor compared selling Bitcoin to buy a Ferrari to an ancestor giving up generational wealth for a fancy carriage. Responding to a viral meme, he added: "You should keep your kidney, but more importantly, hold on to your Bitcoin."
2:26

Michael Saylor: Keep Your Kidney, but Hold On to Your Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 21 interview with When Shift Happens that Bitcoin is a stronger form of capital preservation than traditional assets. When liquidity is needed, he said people should first sell assets with shorter "half-lives," rather than Bitcoin that could benefit future generations. Saylor compared selling Bitcoin to buy a Ferrari to an ancestor giving up generational wealth for a fancy carriage. Responding to a viral meme, he added: "You should keep your kidney, but more importantly, hold on to your Bitcoin."

Wu Blockchain

10,452 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

“You can’t create more than 21 million Bitcoin onchain.” But offchain? Jim Bianco ( Jim Bianco ) warns we've built “a fractional reserve system around Bitcoin.” “The ETFs, TradFi borrowing… to buy Bitcoin, structured products… tied to the ETFs, treasury companies..." We’re creating “many billions of dollars of crypto buying that is not onchain.” “When the market started to crack… it was the synthetic markets that cracked.” 📉
2:53

“You can’t create more than 21 million Bitcoin onchain.” But offchain? Jim Bianco ( Jim Bianco ) warns we've built “a fractional reserve system around Bitcoin.” “The ETFs, TradFi borrowing… to buy Bitcoin, structured products… tied to the ETFs, treasury companies..." We’re creating “many billions of dollars of crypto buying that is not onchain.” “When the market started to crack… it was the synthetic markets that cracked.” 📉

Bankless

127,639 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

JUST IN: Michael Saylor explains how to 100x your money and says, “in the year, 2045 I think that Bitcoin is worth $13 million, so every bitcoin that you don’t buy is a $13 million cost.”
2:07

JUST IN: Michael Saylor explains how to 100x your money and says, “in the year, 2045 I think that Bitcoin is worth $13 million, so every bitcoin that you don’t buy is a $13 million cost.”

Simply Bitcoin

437,814 просмотров • 1 год назад

🇺🇸 MICHAEL SAYLOR REVEALED THE ENDGAME: THEY PLAN TO BUY $70,000,000,000 WORTH OF BITCOIN. “IF I GET 7.5% OF THE NETWORK, IT’S $10 MILLION A COIN.” “WE’D TOP OUT AT 7.5% AND THEN SLOW DOWN.” IT’S COMING 🚀
0:39

🇺🇸 MICHAEL SAYLOR REVEALED THE ENDGAME: THEY PLAN TO BUY $70,000,000,000 WORTH OF BITCOIN. “IF I GET 7.5% OF THE NETWORK, IT’S $10 MILLION A COIN.” “WE’D TOP OUT AT 7.5% AND THEN SLOW DOWN.” IT’S COMING 🚀

Vivek Sen

1,319,920 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin Needs Great Products to Tap Into 99% of Capital Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a June 17 interview with BTCPrague that promoting Bitcoin cannot rely only on preaching its asset properties. He compared it to aluminum: the way to sell aluminum is not to say it is lighter than steel, but to build airplanes and sell tickets, letting people buy aluminum through products they use. Saylor said Bitcoin also needs to be embedded in compelling digital products and connected to global capital markets to reach billions of users and companies. "They have 99% of the money," he said. "They're not coming to us. We need to go to them."
2:47

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin Needs Great Products to Tap Into 99% of Capital Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a June 17 interview with BTCPrague that promoting Bitcoin cannot rely only on preaching its asset properties. He compared it to aluminum: the way to sell aluminum is not to say it is lighter than steel, but to build airplanes and sell tickets, letting people buy aluminum through products they use. Saylor said Bitcoin also needs to be embedded in compelling digital products and connected to global capital markets to reach billions of users and companies. "They have 99% of the money," he said. "They're not coming to us. We need to go to them."

Wu Blockchain

18,682 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Michael Saylor's end game is to buy $3 trillion worth of #Bitcoin! 👀 Microstrategy could, CONSERVATIVELY, own approximately 16% of the total Bitcoin Supply or 3,439,002 Bitcoin!! For those that think this is a MOONBOI projection, listen to the video clip below, VERY CLOSELY, and you will hear him say that he plans on buying $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin 🤯 Even if Saylor buys $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin, at an average price of $1 million per coin, he would be able to buy 3,000,000 Bitcoin! Check my math! This would CONSERVATIVELY bring his total Bitcoin holdings to 3,444,262, or 16% of the total Bitcoin Supply!! Saylor could single handedly jack the price of Bitcoin to $1 million per coin and Samson Mow's Omega candle could be coming in 2025. What going to happen when Nation States, Google, Amazon, Facebook and billions of people complement Saylor's $3 trillion purchase? What is bigger than an omega candle? I asked GROK and it doesn't even know! 😂 I think we should name it the ♾️ candle. This would be representative of Wicked's Stock to Fomo model (see graphic below) and his post: Saylor has said he is going to double his $42 Billion Bitcoin investment at least 4 times and here is how this could lead to him acquiring more than 4 million Bitcoin in 2025: Q1 2025 - Raise $84 Billion to buy 700,000 Bitcoin at average price of $120k/Bitcoin. Q2 2025 - Raise $168 Billion to buy 988,235 Bitcoin at average price of $170k/Bitcoin Q3 2025 - Raise $336 Billion to buy 1,050,000 Bitcoin at average price of $320k/Bitcoin Q4 2025 - Raise $672 Billion to buy 1,680,000 Bitcoin at average price of $400k/Bitcoin In one year there is the possibility that he could REALISTICALLY buy 4,418,235 Bitcoin!! I say "realistically" because the demand for Saylor's $42 Billion equity raise was so great that he is going to be able to use it all up in 3-4 months instead of the projected 3 years!!🤯 This would bring their current Bitcoin holdings of 444,262 Bitcoin to 4,857,237!!!! Or 23% of all Bitcoin!! Calculations are based on our post below: We are closer to $1 million Bitcoin than you think. I believe we will get to this price sooner than Wicked 's projected date of 4/4/2030. I agree with Samson that we get to $1 million per coin by the end of 2025! Hold on to your hat, because we are about to experience exponential, LIFTOFF. To understand exponential growth, envision yourself holding two very powerful magnets. As you start to bring the two magnets together, it gets harder to hold them apart and all of a sudden, BAM, they clap together! This is what we are about to experience, a SUDDEN BAM, in the price of Bitcoin as adoption goes from <1% to 10% in a very short time frame. Now you may better understand why Saylor is frantically, but intelligently, trying to buy $42 Billion of Bitcoin. As an engineer he understands what exponential demand will cause to the price of a finite commodity. Saylor has been on record as saying that "he will be buying the top forever." Don't ever underestimate an astro/aeronautical MIT engineer.
0:36

Michael Saylor's end game is to buy $3 trillion worth of #Bitcoin! 👀 Microstrategy could, CONSERVATIVELY, own approximately 16% of the total Bitcoin Supply or 3,439,002 Bitcoin!! For those that think this is a MOONBOI projection, listen to the video clip below, VERY CLOSELY, and you will hear him say that he plans on buying $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin 🤯 Even if Saylor buys $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin, at an average price of $1 million per coin, he would be able to buy 3,000,000 Bitcoin! Check my math! This would CONSERVATIVELY bring his total Bitcoin holdings to 3,444,262, or 16% of the total Bitcoin Supply!! Saylor could single handedly jack the price of Bitcoin to $1 million per coin and Samson Mow's Omega candle could be coming in 2025. What going to happen when Nation States, Google, Amazon, Facebook and billions of people complement Saylor's $3 trillion purchase? What is bigger than an omega candle? I asked GROK and it doesn't even know! 😂 I think we should name it the ♾️ candle. This would be representative of Wicked's Stock to Fomo model (see graphic below) and his post: Saylor has said he is going to double his $42 Billion Bitcoin investment at least 4 times and here is how this could lead to him acquiring more than 4 million Bitcoin in 2025: Q1 2025 - Raise $84 Billion to buy 700,000 Bitcoin at average price of $120k/Bitcoin. Q2 2025 - Raise $168 Billion to buy 988,235 Bitcoin at average price of $170k/Bitcoin Q3 2025 - Raise $336 Billion to buy 1,050,000 Bitcoin at average price of $320k/Bitcoin Q4 2025 - Raise $672 Billion to buy 1,680,000 Bitcoin at average price of $400k/Bitcoin In one year there is the possibility that he could REALISTICALLY buy 4,418,235 Bitcoin!! I say "realistically" because the demand for Saylor's $42 Billion equity raise was so great that he is going to be able to use it all up in 3-4 months instead of the projected 3 years!!🤯 This would bring their current Bitcoin holdings of 444,262 Bitcoin to 4,857,237!!!! Or 23% of all Bitcoin!! Calculations are based on our post below: We are closer to $1 million Bitcoin than you think. I believe we will get to this price sooner than Wicked 's projected date of 4/4/2030. I agree with Samson that we get to $1 million per coin by the end of 2025! Hold on to your hat, because we are about to experience exponential, LIFTOFF. To understand exponential growth, envision yourself holding two very powerful magnets. As you start to bring the two magnets together, it gets harder to hold them apart and all of a sudden, BAM, they clap together! This is what we are about to experience, a SUDDEN BAM, in the price of Bitcoin as adoption goes from <1% to 10% in a very short time frame. Now you may better understand why Saylor is frantically, but intelligently, trying to buy $42 Billion of Bitcoin. As an engineer he understands what exponential demand will cause to the price of a finite commodity. Saylor has been on record as saying that "he will be buying the top forever." Don't ever underestimate an astro/aeronautical MIT engineer.

Satoshi’s Journal

280,298 просмотров • 1 год назад

MICHAEL SAYLOR: My evil genius strategy that would make the US $100 trillion in a heartbeat —you dump gold, demonetize the entire gold network. You buy 5-6 million #Bitcoin and monetize the #BTC network. The price of Bitcoin goes to the moon. The US is the big beneficiary.
1:20

MICHAEL SAYLOR: My evil genius strategy that would make the US $100 trillion in a heartbeat —you dump gold, demonetize the entire gold network. You buy 5-6 million #Bitcoin and monetize the #BTC network. The price of Bitcoin goes to the moon. The US is the big beneficiary.

Swan

330,058 просмотров • 1 год назад

🚨 Michael Michael Saylor’s first comments on the day #bitcoin made all time highs above $100k 👀 “This is a global monetary asset that’s worthy of attention. If it’s not going to $0, it’s going to $1 million.” full episode next week
0:21

🚨 Michael Michael Saylor’s first comments on the day #bitcoin made all time highs above $100k 👀 “This is a global monetary asset that’s worthy of attention. If it’s not going to $0, it’s going to $1 million.” full episode next week

Alex Thorn

12,725 просмотров • 1 год назад

🇺🇸 MICHAEL SAYLOR SAID BITCOIN IS GOING TO $16,000,000 “I'LL BE HAPPY TO BUY AT $200,000, $500,000, $1 MILLION, $2 MILLION, $4 MILLION, $8 MILLION, $16 MILLION.” “PEOPLE WILL MAKE FUN OF ME FOR DOING IT, BUT BITCOIN WILL BE TRADING AT $16 MILLION A COIN.” YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH 🚀
0:43

🇺🇸 MICHAEL SAYLOR SAID BITCOIN IS GOING TO $16,000,000 “I'LL BE HAPPY TO BUY AT $200,000, $500,000, $1 MILLION, $2 MILLION, $4 MILLION, $8 MILLION, $16 MILLION.” “PEOPLE WILL MAKE FUN OF ME FOR DOING IT, BUT BITCOIN WILL BE TRADING AT $16 MILLION A COIN.” YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH 🚀

Crypto Zenkai

42,996 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

This is perhaps the best Michael Saylor analogy I’ve ever heard. Capital flowing into bitcoin is like water flowing down a waterfall—it’s happening and it’s not going to stop happening. Bitcoin is the only asset that can stop nature from melting your wealth.
6:17

This is perhaps the best Michael Saylor analogy I’ve ever heard. Capital flowing into bitcoin is like water flowing down a waterfall—it’s happening and it’s not going to stop happening. Bitcoin is the only asset that can stop nature from melting your wealth.

Joe Burnett, MSBA

123,525 просмотров • 1 год назад

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад