Loading video...

Video Failed to Load

Go Home

Mike McGlone says the AI boom is a bubble that will eventually bust "The key cycle I think we're gonna get from AI is post-inflation deflation, significantly, because there's no doubt it's massively awesome for productivity." "And right now there's no doubt it's one of the main reasons we...

32,590 views • 8 days ago •via X (Twitter)

10 Comments

The Wolf Of All Streets's profile picture
The Wolf Of All Streets8 days ago

FT @mikemcglone11 This clip is brought to you by @hodlwithLedn

Pepe Fawkes's profile picture
Pepe Fawkes8 days ago

Literally EVERY SINGLE prediction that guy has made has turned out to be wrong - and not wrong by a little - by a lot.

Jason's profile picture
Jason8 days ago

There is no cure for Mike’s stupidity.

Umbrella's profile picture
Umbrella8 days ago

useful technology and overpriced exposure can exist at the same time. curious what would distinguish the two here

Théo's profile picture
Théo8 days ago

Two claims: productivity later, capex bubble now. Stock-market-to-debt is the ratio he is using.

Dvymtar's profile picture
Dvymtar8 days ago

Why quote the class idiot when you had Jordi Visser on.

Scenic Route's profile picture
Scenic Route8 days ago

Best episode of the year so far

SatoshEh's profile picture
SatoshEh8 days ago

Corn and wheat is a bubble. Talk about thing your understand McGloom.

Crypto 8 Vinchenzo's profile picture
Crypto 8 Vinchenzo8 days ago

agree √ - thats if we dont destroy ourselves before then .... we have a few rogue agents out there

Henry Rivera🇺🇸's profile picture
Henry Rivera🇺🇸8 days ago

Interesting take on the AI boom and productivity gains. Always value your analysis on these cycles.

Related Videos

Mark Moss says balancing Bitcoin mining against HPC in one facility is the AI boom turning productive "When you understand the way technological revolutions work, about every 50 years we get one of these. We get this cluster of technology that all of a sudden gives us new building blocks to build this new world that we didn't have before. It's happened 6 times in the last 300 years." "You look at the way that the money gets in to fund these technological revolutions, and it sort of goes from speculative capital into productive capital. And I think we're starting to see signs of that rotation actually happening." "Everyone's like, these large scale LLM models, they're building all this and it's gonna be like the railroads, they're gonna go bankrupt. And there's typically that. We have that speculative capital that a lot of times doesn't have a return, unfortunately for those investors. But then the market moves to more productive investments." "That's what we're starting to see in the AI boom. It's maturing a little bit. The job reports that came in, the GDP numbers that are being forecasted, the durable orders that are coming through in manufacturing." "Not only is it capital that was put into the Bitcoin mining facilities, but now they're also providing the HPC. The way that Bitcoin and HPC work together in one facility is really interesting, because Bitcoin is this highly volatile, high beta asset where HPC is this low volatility but high performing asset. You're able to balance those things out." "Bitcoin and the Bitcoin network are what will power it. It's gonna be the building blocks to build the AI." "We have this agentic commerce that's building right now. McKinsey says it's gonna be 5 trillion dollars by 2030. And that's not only driving the profitability of the AI companies, the tokens are exploding, but then the ability to have Bitcoin and the Bitcoin rails for that to all move on."

The Wolf Of All Streets

25,898 views • 7 days ago

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

Patrick OShaughnessy

2,378,178 views • 4 months ago