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Mike McGlone says the AI boom is a bubble that will eventually bust "The key cycle I think we're gonna get from AI is post-inflation deflation, significantly, because there's no doubt it's massively awesome for productivity." "And right now there's no doubt it's one of the main reasons we... show more

The Wolf Of All Streets

1,084,941 subscribers

32,590 просмотров • 5 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 10

Фото профиля The Wolf Of All Streets

The Wolf Of All Streets5 дней назад

FT @mikemcglone11 This clip is brought to you by @hodlwithLedn

Фото профиля Pepe Fawkes

Pepe Fawkes5 дней назад

Literally EVERY SINGLE prediction that guy has made has turned out to be wrong - and not wrong by a little - by a lot.

Фото профиля Jason

Jason5 дней назад

There is no cure for Mike’s stupidity.

Фото профиля Umbrella

Umbrella5 дней назад

useful technology and overpriced exposure can exist at the same time. curious what would distinguish the two here

Фото профиля Théo

Théo5 дней назад

Two claims: productivity later, capex bubble now. Stock-market-to-debt is the ratio he is using.

Фото профиля Dvymtar

Dvymtar5 дней назад

Why quote the class idiot when you had Jordi Visser on.

Фото профиля Scenic Route

Scenic Route5 дней назад

Best episode of the year so far

Фото профиля SatoshEh

SatoshEh5 дней назад

Corn and wheat is a bubble. Talk about thing your understand McGloom.

Фото профиля Crypto 8 Vinchenzo

Crypto 8 Vinchenzo5 дней назад

agree √ - thats if we dont destroy ourselves before then .... we have a few rogue agents out there

Фото профиля Henry Rivera🇺🇸

Henry Rivera🇺🇸5 дней назад

Interesting take on the AI boom and productivity gains. Always value your analysis on these cycles.

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Mark Moss says balancing Bitcoin mining against HPC in one facility is the AI boom turning productive "When you understand the way technological revolutions work, about every 50 years we get one of these. We get this cluster of technology that all of a sudden gives us new building blocks to build this new world that we didn't have before. It's happened 6 times in the last 300 years." "You look at the way that the money gets in to fund these technological revolutions, and it sort of goes from speculative capital into productive capital. And I think we're starting to see signs of that rotation actually happening." "Everyone's like, these large scale LLM models, they're building all this and it's gonna be like the railroads, they're gonna go bankrupt. And there's typically that. We have that speculative capital that a lot of times doesn't have a return, unfortunately for those investors. But then the market moves to more productive investments." "That's what we're starting to see in the AI boom. It's maturing a little bit. The job reports that came in, the GDP numbers that are being forecasted, the durable orders that are coming through in manufacturing." "Not only is it capital that was put into the Bitcoin mining facilities, but now they're also providing the HPC. The way that Bitcoin and HPC work together in one facility is really interesting, because Bitcoin is this highly volatile, high beta asset where HPC is this low volatility but high performing asset. You're able to balance those things out." "Bitcoin and the Bitcoin network are what will power it. It's gonna be the building blocks to build the AI." "We have this agentic commerce that's building right now. McKinsey says it's gonna be 5 trillion dollars by 2030. And that's not only driving the profitability of the AI companies, the tokens are exploding, but then the ability to have Bitcoin and the Bitcoin rails for that to all move on."

Mark Moss says balancing Bitcoin mining against HPC in one facility is the AI boom turning productive "When you understand the way technological revolutions work, about every 50 years we get one of these. We get this cluster of technology that all of a sudden gives us new building blocks to build this new world that we didn't have before. It's happened 6 times in the last 300 years." "You look at the way that the money gets in to fund these technological revolutions, and it sort of goes from speculative capital into productive capital. And I think we're starting to see signs of that rotation actually happening." "Everyone's like, these large scale LLM models, they're building all this and it's gonna be like the railroads, they're gonna go bankrupt. And there's typically that. We have that speculative capital that a lot of times doesn't have a return, unfortunately for those investors. But then the market moves to more productive investments." "That's what we're starting to see in the AI boom. It's maturing a little bit. The job reports that came in, the GDP numbers that are being forecasted, the durable orders that are coming through in manufacturing." "Not only is it capital that was put into the Bitcoin mining facilities, but now they're also providing the HPC. The way that Bitcoin and HPC work together in one facility is really interesting, because Bitcoin is this highly volatile, high beta asset where HPC is this low volatility but high performing asset. You're able to balance those things out." "Bitcoin and the Bitcoin network are what will power it. It's gonna be the building blocks to build the AI." "We have this agentic commerce that's building right now. McKinsey says it's gonna be 5 trillion dollars by 2030. And that's not only driving the profitability of the AI companies, the tokens are exploding, but then the ability to have Bitcoin and the Bitcoin rails for that to all move on."

The Wolf Of All Streets

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"Bitcoin's probably going towards 10,000, and we need to get MicroStrategy Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now, Bitcoin has to go up" Mike McGlone on why crypto is in a severe bear market that's just getting started "Cryptos are in a severe, serious bear market and it should continue. Part of it is because we've got a lot of smart people who are not seeing the forest through the trees. The number one thing is rapidly advancing technology, which is bearish because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos" "Now we have to purge those, and we're just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. The fact that it's done what it's done this year is a good indication it's probably going towards 10,000" "There's only one thing that matters for Saylor right now, Bitcoin has to go up. And it's going down despite the stock market going up"

"Bitcoin's probably going towards 10,000, and we need to get MicroStrategy Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now, Bitcoin has to go up" Mike McGlone on why crypto is in a severe bear market that's just getting started "Cryptos are in a severe, serious bear market and it should continue. Part of it is because we've got a lot of smart people who are not seeing the forest through the trees. The number one thing is rapidly advancing technology, which is bearish because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos" "Now we have to purge those, and we're just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. The fact that it's done what it's done this year is a good indication it's probably going towards 10,000" "There's only one thing that matters for Saylor right now, Bitcoin has to go up. And it's going down despite the stock market going up"

The Wolf Of All Streets

171,087 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio on the AI bubble: "this is about 80% into a bubble - that 100% would have been 1929 and 2000" this is him - the Bridgewater founder - reading the AI melt-up against 500 years of bubbles "there's definitely a bubble in the markets" "isn't it amazing? we're talking about one stock for the stock market bubble" "General Electric and RCA - those companies went down 90%, not because of the economy - the bubble burst first because they needed cash" "the need for cash is always that which pricks the bubble" bookmark & watch today ↓

Ray Dalio on the AI bubble: "this is about 80% into a bubble - that 100% would have been 1929 and 2000" this is him - the Bridgewater founder - reading the AI melt-up against 500 years of bubbles "there's definitely a bubble in the markets" "isn't it amazing? we're talking about one stock for the stock market bubble" "General Electric and RCA - those companies went down 90%, not because of the economy - the bubble burst first because they needed cash" "the need for cash is always that which pricks the bubble" bookmark & watch today ↓

st1ne

101,024 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

AI and robots are our way out of the debt trap. I know that sounds insane… but when you play it through, it's the only story that adds up. Every economy on earth runs on population plus productivity plus debt. When the first two stall, the only lever left is to pile on debt to hold the line. That's why debt to GDP has climbed across the developed world for decades, and no policy or austerity package has ever managed to stop it. But here's what changes it. AI and robots become the new workforce… One that doesn't age or retire, and never asks for a raise or a pension. When this scales productivity moves again, GDP outgrows debt, and debt to GDP starts falling for the first time in a generation. We saw it happen in the 1950s when America's post-war productivity boom cut debt to GDP in half. What's coming next is a much bigger version of that… The moment technology creates enough productivity to break the debt spiral for good. That's the Economic Singularity I've been telling you about.

AI and robots are our way out of the debt trap. I know that sounds insane… but when you play it through, it's the only story that adds up. Every economy on earth runs on population plus productivity plus debt. When the first two stall, the only lever left is to pile on debt to hold the line. That's why debt to GDP has climbed across the developed world for decades, and no policy or austerity package has ever managed to stop it. But here's what changes it. AI and robots become the new workforce… One that doesn't age or retire, and never asks for a raise or a pension. When this scales productivity moves again, GDP outgrows debt, and debt to GDP starts falling for the first time in a generation. We saw it happen in the 1950s when America's post-war productivity boom cut debt to GDP in half. What's coming next is a much bigger version of that… The moment technology creates enough productivity to break the debt spiral for good. That's the Economic Singularity I've been telling you about.

Raoul Pal

90,129 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

David Sacks: The Chip Stock Crash is Based on Momentum, NOT Fundamentals David Sacks: “That is the key question here, this correction in the markets, is it driven by fundamentals or is it driven by momentum? I think it's driven by momentum. Meaning that over the past year, you've had this roughly 10x run up in memory chip stocks, and you've seen this overall huge rise in any stock that's related to the AI boom. And I think it was inevitable that you'd see a pullback. I think there was something like a 10% pullback in the Nasdaq from the peak. But when you look at this momentum trade, it was down like 30% or 40%. You look at what happened in South Korea, you look at what happened with Leopold's fund, and obviously there was a lot of leverage behind this momentum trade, so when it corrects, it's going to be brutal. But I think that the question again is, does this reveal anything about the fundamentals? Is the CapEx that's being invested in the AI boom eventually going to deliver ROI, or is this some sort of bubble? I think there will be a return on all of this CapEx, and this is temporary market volatility amplified by leverage.”

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NoName

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Most investors haven't heard of TeraWulf $WULF but it's one of the highest-upside stocks for the AI boom. It's a power and infrastructure name that will be critical to the data center buildout. Strategist Lou Basenese makes his case on the stock.

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Phil Rosen

19,405 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the AI bubble: "This is all fugazi. It's going to burst" "It's all happening. And credit is effectively frozen. Private credit and private equity are on life support" "I've been here before. The only thing that's working in the stock market is AI. And if you strip out AI, stocks have gone nowhere since the rally that came out of the ceasefire" "Housing's rolling over. Housing starts [have] plummeted" "[Yet] the AI bubble is the only thing that's making people feel super complacent... It's now 45% of the S&P 500 market cap" "Semiconductors are 19% of the S&P 500... and they're 30% of the NASDAQ" "I know that people think that if the stock market's doing fine, everything's fine. It's not fine. We all know that" "Trump's poll numbers are in the tank. The average consumer is continuing to experience credit stress on their credit cards, their auto loans, and housing, and mortgage stress is starting to rise" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion posted to the CDM (CDM) Rumble channel on June 25, 2026.

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the AI bubble: "This is all fugazi. It's going to burst" "It's all happening. And credit is effectively frozen. Private credit and private equity are on life support" "I've been here before. The only thing that's working in the stock market is AI. And if you strip out AI, stocks have gone nowhere since the rally that came out of the ceasefire" "Housing's rolling over. Housing starts [have] plummeted" "[Yet] the AI bubble is the only thing that's making people feel super complacent... It's now 45% of the S&P 500 market cap" "Semiconductors are 19% of the S&P 500... and they're 30% of the NASDAQ" "I know that people think that if the stock market's doing fine, everything's fine. It's not fine. We all know that" "Trump's poll numbers are in the tank. The average consumer is continuing to experience credit stress on their credit cards, their auto loans, and housing, and mortgage stress is starting to rise" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion posted to the CDM (CDM) Rumble channel on June 25, 2026.

Sense Receptor

51,031 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

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🚨 DAVID SACKS: “I don't think there's going to be this huge job loss associated with this [AI] productivity boom that we're going to get. In fact, I think what's actually happening now is that AI is becoming synonymous with the American economy … It's generating 75% of GDP.”

Chief Nerd

79,986 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

BREAKING: Dan Ives says SpaceX could become one of the best AI investments in the market. "When you look at it on the compute side to space, it's much more of an AI play. When you go out in the next 2-3 years, if they execute, I could argue this becomes one of the best AI plays in the market and that's why we are bullish."

BREAKING: Dan Ives says SpaceX could become one of the best AI investments in the market. "When you look at it on the compute side to space, it's much more of an AI play. When you go out in the next 2-3 years, if they execute, I could argue this becomes one of the best AI plays in the market and that's why we are bullish."

DogeDesigner

86,983 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

"We have the AI stock market, we have the non-AI stock market. They don't even move together" Jim Bianco says 41 AI stocks are half the S&P, and the correlation between them and the rest has gone negative "Michael Cembalest over at JPMorgan has put together a list of the 41 stocks in the S&P that are AI-related. The Mag 7, the semis, the equipment makers, a couple of others. 41 of 500 stocks." "Those 41 companies were 48% of the S&P 500's cap about two weeks ago. It's a little less today, maybe 46% right now. We'll call it half. The other 459 companies are 52% of it." "If you look at the indexes, there is an index of the AI stocks and the ex-AI stocks. That correlation has broken down and has gone completely negative right now." "That's why I find it curious that on a day the stock market is down, they'll say it's down because there's fears the economy is slowing. And I'm like, the 459 non-AI stocks were actually up that day. It was just that a bunch of semiconductors got pounded, and that's what dragged down the entire index."

"We have the AI stock market, we have the non-AI stock market. They don't even move together" Jim Bianco says 41 AI stocks are half the S&P, and the correlation between them and the rest has gone negative "Michael Cembalest over at JPMorgan has put together a list of the 41 stocks in the S&P that are AI-related. The Mag 7, the semis, the equipment makers, a couple of others. 41 of 500 stocks." "Those 41 companies were 48% of the S&P 500's cap about two weeks ago. It's a little less today, maybe 46% right now. We'll call it half. The other 459 companies are 52% of it." "If you look at the indexes, there is an index of the AI stocks and the ex-AI stocks. That correlation has broken down and has gone completely negative right now." "That's why I find it curious that on a day the stock market is down, they'll say it's down because there's fears the economy is slowing. And I'm like, the 459 non-AI stocks were actually up that day. It was just that a bunch of semiconductors got pounded, and that's what dragged down the entire index."

The Wolf Of All Streets

33,961 просмотров • 5 дней назад

John: AI is actually doing very little for the economy right now. It's doing a lot for the markets, but in terms of the actual economic impact of AI, it's very low. If you add up the actual revenues from the AI labs, you're talking about $40 billion. Maybe there's like a 5x multiple on that, and so you're generating $200 billion of GDP on top of those tokens. But that's just not that much in the grand scheme of America's actual GDP. There's this disconnect between the market, which is pricing future GDP, future cash flows, future value creation. Then you have what is actually driving GDP, and then you have the actual workforce and what Americans do. What's actually holding up the American economy? It's healthcare jobs. The number of people that are software developers is less than 1% of America. The number of people that work at tech companies broadly is less than 10%.

John: AI is actually doing very little for the economy right now. It's doing a lot for the markets, but in terms of the actual economic impact of AI, it's very low. If you add up the actual revenues from the AI labs, you're talking about $40 billion. Maybe there's like a 5x multiple on that, and so you're generating $200 billion of GDP on top of those tokens. But that's just not that much in the grand scheme of America's actual GDP. There's this disconnect between the market, which is pricing future GDP, future cash flows, future value creation. Then you have what is actually driving GDP, and then you have the actual workforce and what Americans do. What's actually holding up the American economy? It's healthcare jobs. The number of people that are software developers is less than 1% of America. The number of people that work at tech companies broadly is less than 10%.

TBPN

34,206 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

"If the growth rate is above the funding rate you're good, if it's the other way around your debt becomes unsustainable" Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer on the simple test for whether debt spirals "A very simple metric would be to look at the five year CAGR of nominal GDP, which is probably around 6 or 7%, and what's the 10 year treasury yield, what is the funding? It's 4.65%" "In Europe for instance, they don't have the growth but they do have the debt. In Japan they are deflating or devaluing the debt, and they're actually doing, I would hate to say a good job at it because Japanese yields keep making new highs, but Japanese debt to GDP is way down. It's the ratio of debt to GDP" "So the calculus in the US is we're going to boost productivity through AI, we're going to grow this thing, and that keeps the growth rate above the funding rate. If that's the case, you avoid a debt spiral"

"If the growth rate is above the funding rate you're good, if it's the other way around your debt becomes unsustainable" Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer on the simple test for whether debt spirals "A very simple metric would be to look at the five year CAGR of nominal GDP, which is probably around 6 or 7%, and what's the 10 year treasury yield, what is the funding? It's 4.65%" "In Europe for instance, they don't have the growth but they do have the debt. In Japan they are deflating or devaluing the debt, and they're actually doing, I would hate to say a good job at it because Japanese yields keep making new highs, but Japanese debt to GDP is way down. It's the ratio of debt to GDP" "So the calculus in the US is we're going to boost productivity through AI, we're going to grow this thing, and that keeps the growth rate above the funding rate. If that's the case, you avoid a debt spiral"

The Wolf Of All Streets

36,734 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

Patrick OShaughnessy

2,377,933 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

My take on Soar Financial on the STOCK MARKET BUBBLE: "The market is in BUBBLE TERRITORY so it's vulnerable for a TAKEDOWN... The only thing we know with some certainty is that when the popping occurs, it usually is associated with central banks tightening monetary policy."

My take on Soar Financial on the STOCK MARKET BUBBLE: "The market is in BUBBLE TERRITORY so it's vulnerable for a TAKEDOWN... The only thing we know with some certainty is that when the popping occurs, it usually is associated with central banks tightening monetary policy."

Steve Hanke

13,857 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Raoul Pal said the quiet part about the stock market out loud: "Anybody can create software now for zero cost. Yet the entire stock market is basically software companies. That's where all the value is held." Follow that to its end. If an AI agent can spin up a SaaS platform, what is the stock market? What is the value it captures? His honest answer: "I don't know." And he goes further. "Once you get past 2030, 2032, it's all nonsense. Why would you start a company? Somebody can copy it in seconds or an AI will copy it in seconds and extract more money from it than you." An AI can build a business and close it down in minutes. No hiring, no registration, no wind-down. In his words: "business becomes almost an arbitrage." He calls the whole thing the economic singularity, technology advancing faster than the infrastructure we built around humanity over centuries can absorb. Venture capital, equities, hedge funds: "none of it is fit for purpose." But here's the twist for markets right now. Before that world arrives, he sees one more classic cycle: "I think we have one more cycle before that. And that's going to be the spectacular one. That's the blowoff top cycle, because right now people are still cynical. They don't quite believe it." The bubble everyone fears hasn't even started, in his read. Institutions were underweight tech most of last year. There's no debt in this thing yet. Bubbles don't top on cynicism. Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal said the quiet part about the stock market out loud: "Anybody can create software now for zero cost. Yet the entire stock market is basically software companies. That's where all the value is held." Follow that to its end. If an AI agent can spin up a SaaS platform, what is the stock market? What is the value it captures? His honest answer: "I don't know." And he goes further. "Once you get past 2030, 2032, it's all nonsense. Why would you start a company? Somebody can copy it in seconds or an AI will copy it in seconds and extract more money from it than you." An AI can build a business and close it down in minutes. No hiring, no registration, no wind-down. In his words: "business becomes almost an arbitrage." He calls the whole thing the economic singularity, technology advancing faster than the infrastructure we built around humanity over centuries can absorb. Venture capital, equities, hedge funds: "none of it is fit for purpose." But here's the twist for markets right now. Before that world arrives, he sees one more classic cycle: "I think we have one more cycle before that. And that's going to be the spectacular one. That's the blowoff top cycle, because right now people are still cynical. They don't quite believe it." The bubble everyone fears hasn't even started, in his read. Institutions were underweight tech most of last year. There's no debt in this thing yet. Bubbles don't top on cynicism. Raoul Pal

Michaël van de Poppe

62,697 просмотров • 23 дней назад

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening. He also compared the current market to two specific years: "We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about." On all tech revolutions: "All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right." On the mechanism that pops bubbles: "There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money." On the wealth gap that comes with it: "A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't." On a political solution: "I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve." He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.

WOLF

183,702 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад