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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 MISSILE WAR - One night over Jordan helps explain a much larger problem now confronting the United States. Iran fired roughly 20 ballistic missiles. The U.S. responded with more than 70 high-end interceptors, around 60–70 Patriots and more than a dozen THAADs, according to the Wall Street... Journal. (Video below) Some Iranian missiles still got through. The significance is not simply that defenses were imperfect. It is what the United States had to expend to achieve that level of protection. The WSJ reports that some of the Iranian missiles used warheads that separated into multiple projectiles during their approach, complicating the defensive problem. In some engagements, U.S. forces fired three or four interceptors against a single incoming missile. CBS News reported that one A-10 at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was struck and lost a wing, while roughly eight F-15s sustained light damage. The F-15s were subsequently returned to service. Now put that single night against the numbers Washington released today. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the United States has probably consumed between one-half and two-thirds of its inventory of certain missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, including Patriot, THAAD, SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. That estimate covers more than the current phase of the Iran war: it also includes interceptors previously expended defending Israel. Replacing the missile-defense interceptors already used is estimated to cost $13.1 billion. More importantly, money cannot immediately solve the problem. CBO says rebuilding the depleted inventories would probably take at least five years, even if production increases. That creates a strategic cost extending well beyond the Middle East. CBO specifically warns that reduced interceptor inventories would become particularly problematic in a conflict against an adversary possessing large numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles, and points directly to China's arsenal and a potential conflict over Taiwan. CSIS had already estimated in July that U.S. Patriot inventories had fallen below 1,000 interceptors and THAAD inventories to roughly 250. Against that backdrop, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper gave CBS a very different assessment this weekend. Asked how concerned he was about dwindling munitions, Cooper replied: “I'm not concerned at all. We're well armed and ready for any contingency.” The Pentagon may have sufficient weapons for its current operational requirements. The harder question raised by the CBO is one of depth and regeneration: how many more nights requiring dozens of premium interceptors can the United States absorb while simultaneously preserving missile-defense capacity for Europe, the Middle East and a potential Indo-Pacific contingency? Jordan provided a real-world demonstration of that arithmetic. Roughly 20 Iranian ballistic missiles. More than 70 Patriot and THAAD launches, and an industrial base that may need years to replace what can be fired in minutes.show more

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U.S. WIPES OUT A WEEK of Interceptors in ONE NIGHT The U.S. fired 60-70 Patriot interceptors and MORE THAN A DOZEN THAADs to defend against roughly 20 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting U.S. forces in Jordan. DESPITE all that, some Iranian missiles STILL got through, striking fighter jets and other aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. This is NOT sustainable

U.S. WIPES OUT A WEEK of Interceptors in ONE NIGHT The U.S. fired 60-70 Patriot interceptors and MORE THAN A DOZEN THAADs to defend against roughly 20 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting U.S. forces in Jordan. DESPITE all that, some Iranian missiles STILL got through, striking fighter jets and other aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. This is NOT sustainable

Ryan Rozbiani

228,942 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

🇺🇸 Patriot Interceptors Are Being Fired At A Stunning Rate Reports claim the US Army launched between 96 and 160 PAC 3 MSE interceptors from Patriot batteries in Jordan tonight against an estimated 32 to 40 Iranian ballistic missiles. That means roughly 3 to 4 interceptors were used for every incoming missile. At around $4 million per interceptor, a single defensive wave could represent approximately $380 million to $640 million in interceptor costs alone. For perspective, a fully loaded Patriot battery can reportedly carry around 72 to 96 PAC 3 MSE interceptors on its launchers. The scale of this expenditure highlights just how costly sustained ballistic missile defense can become.

🇺🇸 Patriot Interceptors Are Being Fired At A Stunning Rate Reports claim the US Army launched between 96 and 160 PAC 3 MSE interceptors from Patriot batteries in Jordan tonight against an estimated 32 to 40 Iranian ballistic missiles. That means roughly 3 to 4 interceptors were used for every incoming missile. At around $4 million per interceptor, a single defensive wave could represent approximately $380 million to $640 million in interceptor costs alone. For perspective, a fully loaded Patriot battery can reportedly carry around 72 to 96 PAC 3 MSE interceptors on its launchers. The scale of this expenditure highlights just how costly sustained ballistic missile defense can become.

Defense Intelligence

13,168 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

❗️❗️🇺🇸 A new analysis indicates that the United States will require 3 to 5 years to replenish its critical missile stockpiles, which were significantly depleted during the recent conflict with Iran. This situation has raised serious concerns about America’s military readiness in the event of a potential confrontation with China. The report highlights that inventories of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors, and THAAD systems have been heavily exhausted. Despite increased defense spending under the Trump administration, the restoration of these stockpiles will take several years due to limited production capacity. Projected recovery timelines are as follows: Tomahawk missiles — until 2030, THAAD interceptors — until late 2029, Patriot missiles — until mid-2029. Video is generated by grok AI

❗️❗️🇺🇸 A new analysis indicates that the United States will require 3 to 5 years to replenish its critical missile stockpiles, which were significantly depleted during the recent conflict with Iran. This situation has raised serious concerns about America’s military readiness in the event of a potential confrontation with China. The report highlights that inventories of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors, and THAAD systems have been heavily exhausted. Despite increased defense spending under the Trump administration, the restoration of these stockpiles will take several years due to limited production capacity. Projected recovery timelines are as follows: Tomahawk missiles — until 2030, THAAD interceptors — until late 2029, Patriot missiles — until mid-2029. Video is generated by grok AI

NSTRIKE

26,373 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Talk about an excellent return on investment for Iran. Inducing the expenditure of 60-70x Patriot interceptors plus 12+ higher-end and far more precious MIM-401 (i.e., THAAD) interceptors to boot, all in exchange for "about 20" Iranian ballistic missiles. Iran even managed to damage some American aircraft on the ground. I don't know how many ballistic missiles Iran has left and, as such, how many more times it can replicate such a salvo, but the United States simply cannot afford to go through another three or four such exchanges unless it wants to experience strategic insolvency vis-a-vis China for a time. China really needs to send Iran some kind of gift for inducing the MIM-401 interceptors alone (the video, reportedly recent, shows debris from a MIM-401 that landed in Syria). Note that the report says that "The U.S. military fired up to 70 or more of its high-end air defense interceptors." This doesn't rule out any Jordanian Patriot launches (Jordanian Patriots are limited to the older PAC-2 interceptors). As I've been saying, we really need to distinguish between PAC-2, PAC-3 CRI, and PAC-3 MSE interceptors. The widely circulating CSIS estimate from July for "Patriot" is only for PAC-3 CRI and PAC-3 MSE, not PAC-2. PAC-3 MSE is the most capable and the most important of the three vis-a-vis not just Iran but also China and Russia.

Talk about an excellent return on investment for Iran. Inducing the expenditure of 60-70x Patriot interceptors plus 12+ higher-end and far more precious MIM-401 (i.e., THAAD) interceptors to boot, all in exchange for "about 20" Iranian ballistic missiles. Iran even managed to damage some American aircraft on the ground. I don't know how many ballistic missiles Iran has left and, as such, how many more times it can replicate such a salvo, but the United States simply cannot afford to go through another three or four such exchanges unless it wants to experience strategic insolvency vis-a-vis China for a time. China really needs to send Iran some kind of gift for inducing the MIM-401 interceptors alone (the video, reportedly recent, shows debris from a MIM-401 that landed in Syria). Note that the report says that "The U.S. military fired up to 70 or more of its high-end air defense interceptors." This doesn't rule out any Jordanian Patriot launches (Jordanian Patriots are limited to the older PAC-2 interceptors). As I've been saying, we really need to distinguish between PAC-2, PAC-3 CRI, and PAC-3 MSE interceptors. The widely circulating CSIS estimate from July for "Patriot" is only for PAC-3 CRI and PAC-3 MSE, not PAC-2. PAC-3 MSE is the most capable and the most important of the three vis-a-vis not just Iran but also China and Russia.

Shahryar Pasandideh

43,376 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

Iran is improving and beginning to use more accurate missiles. The Iranians destroyed an Arrow or David Sling launcher that had expended all its ammunition but was unable to intercept the Iranian missile. This indicates that Iran is now collecting intelligence on the positioning of Israeli air defense batteries and targeting them with the confidence of their missile superiority. Yesterday, I mentioned the low number of defensive missiles Israel has for both Arrow 2/3 and David Sling, leading me to believe that at the current rate, these systems would run out of ammunition in no more than 15 days. The production of David Sling missiles has been ongoing for the past seven years, with an estimated 100–200 missiles produced annually. The numbers of Arrow 2/3 interceptors are even lower—despite being older, their production is more expensive and slower. Concerned about this situation, Israel has requested support from the THAAD system and the Nimitz group to assist with interceptions. But this keep being a serious issue for Israel.

Iran is improving and beginning to use more accurate missiles. The Iranians destroyed an Arrow or David Sling launcher that had expended all its ammunition but was unable to intercept the Iranian missile. This indicates that Iran is now collecting intelligence on the positioning of Israeli air defense batteries and targeting them with the confidence of their missile superiority. Yesterday, I mentioned the low number of defensive missiles Israel has for both Arrow 2/3 and David Sling, leading me to believe that at the current rate, these systems would run out of ammunition in no more than 15 days. The production of David Sling missiles has been ongoing for the past seven years, with an estimated 100–200 missiles produced annually. The numbers of Arrow 2/3 interceptors are even lower—despite being older, their production is more expensive and slower. Concerned about this situation, Israel has requested support from the THAAD system and the Nimitz group to assist with interceptions. But this keep being a serious issue for Israel.

Patricia Marins

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BREAKING: This is another video showing the mass launch of MIM-104D/F surface-to-air missiles by a U.S. Army Patriot PAC-3 air-defense battery deployed next to Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Al-Azraq, Jordan, last night. As you can see, they wasted tens of their highly valuable precision interceptors against incoming Iranian ballistic missiles—to the point that they had nothing left to counter the second and third waves of Iranian attacks.

BREAKING: This is another video showing the mass launch of MIM-104D/F surface-to-air missiles by a U.S. Army Patriot PAC-3 air-defense battery deployed next to Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in Al-Azraq, Jordan, last night. As you can see, they wasted tens of their highly valuable precision interceptors against incoming Iranian ballistic missiles—to the point that they had nothing left to counter the second and third waves of Iranian attacks.

Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch

157,623 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 How Iranian Missiles Are Challenging U.S. Air Defenses Recent conflicts have intensified concerns within the Pentagon over the effectiveness of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities against advanced U.S. and allied air defense systems in the Middle East. According to military assessments and defense analysts, several Iranian missile systems appear capable of performing terminal phase maneuvers, changing their trajectory during the final seconds of flight. This makes it significantly more difficult for air defense systems to accurately predict the missile's path and execute a successful interception. Traditional missile defense systems calculate an incoming missile's trajectory well before impact. However, a missile that alters its course at the last moment can reduce interception opportunities and increase the likelihood of reaching its intended target with greater accuracy. The reported performance of these missiles has become a growing concern for the Pentagon, particularly after recent attacks on U.S. military facilities in the region. Analysts believe these capabilities are forcing the United States to reassess its missile defense posture, interceptor deployment, and early warning strategies across the Middle East. While U.S. air defense systems remain among the most advanced in the world, evolving missile technologies continue to create new operational challenges. The ongoing competition between increasingly sophisticated offensive missiles and modern defensive systems is expected to remain a key focus for military planners in the years ahead.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 How Iranian Missiles Are Challenging U.S. Air Defenses Recent conflicts have intensified concerns within the Pentagon over the effectiveness of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities against advanced U.S. and allied air defense systems in the Middle East. According to military assessments and defense analysts, several Iranian missile systems appear capable of performing terminal phase maneuvers, changing their trajectory during the final seconds of flight. This makes it significantly more difficult for air defense systems to accurately predict the missile's path and execute a successful interception. Traditional missile defense systems calculate an incoming missile's trajectory well before impact. However, a missile that alters its course at the last moment can reduce interception opportunities and increase the likelihood of reaching its intended target with greater accuracy. The reported performance of these missiles has become a growing concern for the Pentagon, particularly after recent attacks on U.S. military facilities in the region. Analysts believe these capabilities are forcing the United States to reassess its missile defense posture, interceptor deployment, and early warning strategies across the Middle East. While U.S. air defense systems remain among the most advanced in the world, evolving missile technologies continue to create new operational challenges. The ongoing competition between increasingly sophisticated offensive missiles and modern defensive systems is expected to remain a key focus for military planners in the years ahead.

Defense Intelligence

21,186 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

America is not running out of bombs. It is running out of the shield that makes bombing Iran survivable. That is the war's real asymmetry, and it inverts everything. Once US aircraft flattened Iran's fixed air defences, America could swap million-dollar standoff missiles for cheap guided bombs. Offence got cheaper by the night. But there is no cheap way to stop a ballistic missile in flight. Iran's reply burns THAAD, Patriot and Standard Missiles, the scarcest, slowest-built weapons America owns. Tehran / IRGC does not need to out-bomb America. It needs its surviving mobile launchers to keep forcing those interceptors out of the tubes. The numbers are stark. Defending Israel the most closest and the most powerful Ally in the first phase, America fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors, roughly half the Pentagon's entire inventory, + over 100 Standard Missiles from Navy ships. Around 200 remain. No new interceptor has arrived since August 2023, and none is expected until 2027. Output is about 96 a year. Washington signed a 35 billion dollar contract to reach 400, over seven years. Money solved the order. It cannot solve time. One myth is worth correcting. Iran is not firing cheap drones to make THAAD shoot them down. THAAD kills ballistic missiles. The drones stretch radars, fighters and the lower layers, the cruise missiles hunt for gaps, and the ballistic missiles force the expensive shots. Iran is attacking the entire defensive stack, not trading one drone for one interceptor. Then China. It does not run a total embargo, and it does not control 98% of all rare earths. It controls roughly 98% of refined gallium, dominates the magnet chain, and runs a licensing system that quietly denies foreign defence buyers while civilian trade flows. America has received no Chinese yttrium for two months. Beijing can throttle the upstream of the very weapons Washington needs for the next war. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf is one unavailable to Ukraine, Korea or the Pacific. Iran's remaining launcher is worth more than the missile inside it, because it forces America to spend time, and time is the one munition no factory can surge. This war is not a test of which magazine empties first. It is a test of which side makes the other spend the future to survive the present. Oh boy!

America is not running out of bombs. It is running out of the shield that makes bombing Iran survivable. That is the war's real asymmetry, and it inverts everything. Once US aircraft flattened Iran's fixed air defences, America could swap million-dollar standoff missiles for cheap guided bombs. Offence got cheaper by the night. But there is no cheap way to stop a ballistic missile in flight. Iran's reply burns THAAD, Patriot and Standard Missiles, the scarcest, slowest-built weapons America owns. Tehran / IRGC does not need to out-bomb America. It needs its surviving mobile launchers to keep forcing those interceptors out of the tubes. The numbers are stark. Defending Israel the most closest and the most powerful Ally in the first phase, America fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors, roughly half the Pentagon's entire inventory, + over 100 Standard Missiles from Navy ships. Around 200 remain. No new interceptor has arrived since August 2023, and none is expected until 2027. Output is about 96 a year. Washington signed a 35 billion dollar contract to reach 400, over seven years. Money solved the order. It cannot solve time. One myth is worth correcting. Iran is not firing cheap drones to make THAAD shoot them down. THAAD kills ballistic missiles. The drones stretch radars, fighters and the lower layers, the cruise missiles hunt for gaps, and the ballistic missiles force the expensive shots. Iran is attacking the entire defensive stack, not trading one drone for one interceptor. Then China. It does not run a total embargo, and it does not control 98% of all rare earths. It controls roughly 98% of refined gallium, dominates the magnet chain, and runs a licensing system that quietly denies foreign defence buyers while civilian trade flows. America has received no Chinese yttrium for two months. Beijing can throttle the upstream of the very weapons Washington needs for the next war. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf is one unavailable to Ukraine, Korea or the Pacific. Iran's remaining launcher is worth more than the missile inside it, because it forces America to spend time, and time is the one munition no factory can surge. This war is not a test of which magazine empties first. It is a test of which side makes the other spend the future to survive the present. Oh boy!

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

1,071,388 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. just burned through 850 Tomahawks in four weeks. It buys 90 a year... Let that math sink in. America fired roughly a quarter of its entire Tomahawk inventory in one month against a country that hasn't surrendered and still controls Hormuz. The Pentagon's annual procurement covers about four days of this war's consumption rate. Hegseth says they'll be "refilled faster than anyone imagined." The actual timeline: new production contracts won't reach full capacity until 2028. The war is happening now. And Tomahawks are just one line item. Senator Reed flagged that Patriot, THAAD, and Standard Missile interceptors are depleting at "alarming rates" too. The Pentagon is now considering diverting Ukraine's weapons to cover the gap. This is the hidden cost of a "quick excursion." A military built for deterrence is burning through its arsenal in a conflict it didn't budget for. Source: CBS News

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. just burned through 850 Tomahawks in four weeks. It buys 90 a year... Let that math sink in. America fired roughly a quarter of its entire Tomahawk inventory in one month against a country that hasn't surrendered and still controls Hormuz. The Pentagon's annual procurement covers about four days of this war's consumption rate. Hegseth says they'll be "refilled faster than anyone imagined." The actual timeline: new production contracts won't reach full capacity until 2028. The war is happening now. And Tomahawks are just one line item. Senator Reed flagged that Patriot, THAAD, and Standard Missile interceptors are depleting at "alarming rates" too. The Pentagon is now considering diverting Ukraine's weapons to cover the gap. This is the hidden cost of a "quick excursion." A military built for deterrence is burning through its arsenal in a conflict it didn't budget for. Source: CBS News

Mario Nawfal

204,807 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Asmongold shows how easy it is to fool MAGA bots that the Iran war is going well. He believed a fake graph of Iranian missile launches. The numbers are made up and the source at the bottom is "IDF Spokesperson". The graph is three days old and predicted Iran would basically be out of missiles by today. The problem is, Iran has launched several waves of missiles TODAY ALONE and they've successfully targeted Israel multiple times along with several US bases. A US base is currently on fire! The building targeted housed a stockpile of patriot missiles which are in very short supply. Satellite imagery shows that over the course of thenl last week, Iran has destroyed a large portion of the radar, communications and air defense installations at most of the largest US bases in the region. None of this is known to Asmongold. He just sees a fake graph and says "these are the facts". The only thing aspect of this graph that's true is that Iran has reduced the total number of missiles and drones launched because the enemy interception rate has plummeted following the destruction of air defense systems and depletion of interceptors. Simply put, it takes fewer and fewer missiles and drones to strike targets, which allows Iran's stockpiles to last MUCH longer. This is very much a GOOD thing for Iran.

Asmongold shows how easy it is to fool MAGA bots that the Iran war is going well. He believed a fake graph of Iranian missile launches. The numbers are made up and the source at the bottom is "IDF Spokesperson". The graph is three days old and predicted Iran would basically be out of missiles by today. The problem is, Iran has launched several waves of missiles TODAY ALONE and they've successfully targeted Israel multiple times along with several US bases. A US base is currently on fire! The building targeted housed a stockpile of patriot missiles which are in very short supply. Satellite imagery shows that over the course of thenl last week, Iran has destroyed a large portion of the radar, communications and air defense installations at most of the largest US bases in the region. None of this is known to Asmongold. He just sees a fake graph and says "these are the facts". The only thing aspect of this graph that's true is that Iran has reduced the total number of missiles and drones launched because the enemy interception rate has plummeted following the destruction of air defense systems and depletion of interceptors. Simply put, it takes fewer and fewer missiles and drones to strike targets, which allows Iran's stockpiles to last MUCH longer. This is very much a GOOD thing for Iran.

Disinformation Tracker

78,219 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

NEW: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is running so low on interceptors that the military is forced to pick and choose which targets get hit by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, per NBC News Over the weekend, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine warned President Trump that interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East are running dangerously low. This led him to order a temporary suspension of operations against Iran for the time being. Iran’s missile stockpile also astonished American strategists and military planners, who had falsely assumed that it would run out of launch capacity within a few weeks to months. Not only does Iran still have large amounts of missiles and drones, these projectiles are becoming increasingly lethal due to adaptation of targeting data and satellite feeds provided by allies. This forced Trump to ask resuming the negotiations.

NEW: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is running so low on interceptors that the military is forced to pick and choose which targets get hit by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, per NBC News Over the weekend, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine warned President Trump that interceptor stockpiles in the Middle East are running dangerously low. This led him to order a temporary suspension of operations against Iran for the time being. Iran’s missile stockpile also astonished American strategists and military planners, who had falsely assumed that it would run out of launch capacity within a few weeks to months. Not only does Iran still have large amounts of missiles and drones, these projectiles are becoming increasingly lethal due to adaptation of targeting data and satellite feeds provided by allies. This forced Trump to ask resuming the negotiations.

Megatron

274,980 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇱🇮🇷🇾🇪 Israel is running out of the weapons that keep its people alive... and the Houthis just opened a new front Israel started conserving its best Arrow interceptors, using upgraded David's Sling munitions for jobs they weren't designed for. Dimona and Arad both took direct hits as a result. CSIS said the region is "vaporizing many years of production in weeks." Then today happened. The Houthis fired their first ballistic missile at Beersheba from Yemen, adding an entirely new direction of attack that Israeli defenses now have to cover. Iran from the east. Hezbollah from the north. Houthis from the south. Every new front multiplies the interceptor burn rate. Every missile from a new angle forces commanders to spread already depleted stockpiles thinner. Iran doesn't need to overwhelm the system with volume anymore. It just activated enough launch points to stretch Israel's defenses past the breaking point. Four hundred Iranian missiles, daily Hezbollah barrages, and now possibly Yemeni ballistic missiles. One country's finite supply of interceptors against three different threat axes. The math was already unsustainable. Today it got considerably worse. Source: WSJ, TOI

🇮🇱🇮🇷🇾🇪 Israel is running out of the weapons that keep its people alive... and the Houthis just opened a new front Israel started conserving its best Arrow interceptors, using upgraded David's Sling munitions for jobs they weren't designed for. Dimona and Arad both took direct hits as a result. CSIS said the region is "vaporizing many years of production in weeks." Then today happened. The Houthis fired their first ballistic missile at Beersheba from Yemen, adding an entirely new direction of attack that Israeli defenses now have to cover. Iran from the east. Hezbollah from the north. Houthis from the south. Every new front multiplies the interceptor burn rate. Every missile from a new angle forces commanders to spread already depleted stockpiles thinner. Iran doesn't need to overwhelm the system with volume anymore. It just activated enough launch points to stretch Israel's defenses past the breaking point. Four hundred Iranian missiles, daily Hezbollah barrages, and now possibly Yemeni ballistic missiles. One country's finite supply of interceptors against three different threat axes. The math was already unsustainable. Today it got considerably worse. Source: WSJ, TOI

Mario Nawfal

735,047 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

💢 WATCH: Israel appears to fire off dozens of interceptors to stop just two incoming Iranian missiles. Also today, CNBC reported the Trump administration is preparing a $50 billion supplemental request to replenish weapons and missile defense stocks depleted in the expanding regional war. 🔹 U.S. military aid has funded up to 35% of Israel’s defense spending during periods of peak conflict, and about 70% of direct war costs, according to Calcalistech—meaning much of the cost of firing expensive interceptors ultimately falls on American taxpayers. 🔹 Interceptor prices vary widely: Iron Dome rounds can cost $50,000–$150,000, David’s Sling about $1 million, Arrow systems up to $3.5 million, while Patriot, SM-3, and THAAD interceptors can run from $4 million to over $12 million each. 🔹 Since taking office in 2025, the administration has also approved nearly $12 billion in major arms sales to Israel while accelerating billions more through emergency authorities.

💢 WATCH: Israel appears to fire off dozens of interceptors to stop just two incoming Iranian missiles. Also today, CNBC reported the Trump administration is preparing a $50 billion supplemental request to replenish weapons and missile defense stocks depleted in the expanding regional war. 🔹 U.S. military aid has funded up to 35% of Israel’s defense spending during periods of peak conflict, and about 70% of direct war costs, according to Calcalistech—meaning much of the cost of firing expensive interceptors ultimately falls on American taxpayers. 🔹 Interceptor prices vary widely: Iron Dome rounds can cost $50,000–$150,000, David’s Sling about $1 million, Arrow systems up to $3.5 million, while Patriot, SM-3, and THAAD interceptors can run from $4 million to over $12 million each. 🔹 Since taking office in 2025, the administration has also approved nearly $12 billion in major arms sales to Israel while accelerating billions more through emergency authorities.

Drop Site

122,974 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

ATTENTION! Iran Ballistic Missile capacity (SITREP)—how much longer can they sustain these barrages? It’s just past 0200 local in Tel Aviv time now. Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles but cannot launch all simultaneously (they’ve already launched 8 waves). Current evidence leans toward a maximum of around 180-200 missiles launched at once in recent attacks. It seems very likely that infrastructure limits simultaneous launches to far below 3,000. Iran possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at over 3,000 missiles, making it the largest in the Middle East. However, the capacity to launch all these missiles at once is constrained by logistical and strategic factors, including the number of launch platforms and the nature of their deployment. Recent military actions show Iran launching up to 180-200 missiles in a single strike. These numbers are significantly lower than 3,000, indicating a limit to simultaneous launch capacity. Iran's infrastructure and launch capacity, including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facilities, does not support launching 3,000 missiles at once. The focus on sequential or ripple-fire systems further supports this limitation. My assessment is Iran is getting toward the end of their ballistic missile capacity (for a variety of reasons). They likely still retain hundreds but their ability to launch very large numbers is hindered by infrastructure destruction over the past several days as well as launch capabilities. That said, DO NOT underestimate Iran’s ability to do as much as humanly possible to attempt to destroy Israel. That has been their stated goal for years and until there is regime change to someone more aligned with Israel and the west, expect this war to continue. Iran's ballistic missile program has been a focal point of regional and international security discussions for many years, particularly given its implications for Middle Eastern stability and global non-proliferation efforts. Iran's ballistic missile inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). One notable development is an automated missile launch system revealed since 2020, capable of positioning up to five fully fueled ballistic missiles on an underground railcar for sequential ripple-fire through a single vertical shaft. This is what Israel is facing now. Barrages of dozens of these simultaneously and my assessment is more to come. Strategic and Logistical Considerations Launching 3,000 missiles simultaneously would require an unprecedented number of launch platforms and coordination, likely exceeding Iran's current capabilities. Strategically, such an action would deplete Iran's entire arsenal, leaving it vulnerable to counterattacks. Our Israeli allies need to prepare for another round of massive amounts of missiles. Iran—you better get ready for a strategic counteroffensive. The Israelis have planned this war for a long time and my sense is that they are far more ready than you, particularly their population. The Iranian people DO NOT want to suffer any longer under their brutal tyrannical regime. This war will end with a clear victor. Donald J. Trump JD Vance DNI Tulsi Gabbard

ATTENTION! Iran Ballistic Missile capacity (SITREP)—how much longer can they sustain these barrages? It’s just past 0200 local in Tel Aviv time now. Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles but cannot launch all simultaneously (they’ve already launched 8 waves). Current evidence leans toward a maximum of around 180-200 missiles launched at once in recent attacks. It seems very likely that infrastructure limits simultaneous launches to far below 3,000. Iran possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at over 3,000 missiles, making it the largest in the Middle East. However, the capacity to launch all these missiles at once is constrained by logistical and strategic factors, including the number of launch platforms and the nature of their deployment. Recent military actions show Iran launching up to 180-200 missiles in a single strike. These numbers are significantly lower than 3,000, indicating a limit to simultaneous launch capacity. Iran's infrastructure and launch capacity, including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facilities, does not support launching 3,000 missiles at once. The focus on sequential or ripple-fire systems further supports this limitation. My assessment is Iran is getting toward the end of their ballistic missile capacity (for a variety of reasons). They likely still retain hundreds but their ability to launch very large numbers is hindered by infrastructure destruction over the past several days as well as launch capabilities. That said, DO NOT underestimate Iran’s ability to do as much as humanly possible to attempt to destroy Israel. That has been their stated goal for years and until there is regime change to someone more aligned with Israel and the west, expect this war to continue. Iran's ballistic missile program has been a focal point of regional and international security discussions for many years, particularly given its implications for Middle Eastern stability and global non-proliferation efforts. Iran's ballistic missile inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). One notable development is an automated missile launch system revealed since 2020, capable of positioning up to five fully fueled ballistic missiles on an underground railcar for sequential ripple-fire through a single vertical shaft. This is what Israel is facing now. Barrages of dozens of these simultaneously and my assessment is more to come. Strategic and Logistical Considerations Launching 3,000 missiles simultaneously would require an unprecedented number of launch platforms and coordination, likely exceeding Iran's current capabilities. Strategically, such an action would deplete Iran's entire arsenal, leaving it vulnerable to counterattacks. Our Israeli allies need to prepare for another round of massive amounts of missiles. Iran—you better get ready for a strategic counteroffensive. The Israelis have planned this war for a long time and my sense is that they are far more ready than you, particularly their population. The Iranian people DO NOT want to suffer any longer under their brutal tyrannical regime. This war will end with a clear victor. Donald J. Trump JD Vance DNI Tulsi Gabbard

General Mike Flynn

724,748 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨🇷🇺 RUSSIA TAUGHT ITS ISKANDER-M BALLISTIC MISSILE TO DODGE U.S. PATRIOT DEFENSES IN THE FINAL SECONDS Russia’s Iskander-M has learned to change the way it flies when air defenses have only seconds left to react. Modified Russian missiles now dive at steeper angles and maneuver during the terminal phase, breaking the predictable flight paths that U.S.-made Patriot systems use to calculate an interception. One Ukrainian official described the upgrade as a “game-changer.” 🔸 SOFTWARE CHANGED THE THREAT: Updated control and guidance systems allow the Iskander-M to depart from its expected descent path and make abrupt maneuvers as it closes on the target. 🔸 PATRIOT GETS LESS TIME TO REACT: The steep final dive compresses the engagement window and forces interceptors to adjust against a missile no longer following the trajectory calculated seconds earlier. 🔸 THE MISSILE WAS ALREADY BUILT TO SURVIVE: Iskander-M combines a depressed flight profile with decoys, electronic countermeasures, a small radar signature and mobile launchers carrying two ready missiles. 🔸 EVERY INTERCEPTION CREATES NEW DATA: Years of combat have shown Russian designers how Patriot and other Western systems detect, track and engage ballistic targets. That information can be converted into repeated software and guidance updates. 🔸 MASS ATTACKS MAKE THE PROBLEM WORSE: Geran drones and cruise missiles can saturate sensors, consume interceptors and overload command networks before ballistic missiles enter the most demanding phase of the attack. 🔸 RECENT STRIKES SHOW WHAT THIS MEANS IN PRACTICE: Russia used Iskander-M ballistic missiles as part of its July 19 massed strike, breaking through around Kiev and hitting a network of missile, drone and military-logistics facilities. The targets included military plants and major storage and assembly hubs supporting Ukraine’s long-range weapons programmes. Missile defense has become a continuous adaptation race — and Russia can repeatedly change trajectories, software and strike combinations while the defender must update tactics and preserve scarce interceptors. Is Russia winning the missile-versus-interceptor technology race?

NewRulesGeopolitics

20,685 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Yedioth Ahronoth: Israel warns the US that its stockpile of defensive missiles is dangerously depleted. Real shame! Israel entered the current war with a limited stockpile of defensive missiles after a large number of them were consumed in the clashes that took place Meanwhile according to Israeli media there are violent explosions in "Tel Aviv" resulting from the fall of projectiles from an Iranian fragmentation missile with Iran last summer. According to kosher Minister Miki Zohar: “We know that in the coming days there may be an escalation, and all of Israel, should be more prepared in the coming days, it is very likely that the war will continue for many more weeks.”

Yedioth Ahronoth: Israel warns the US that its stockpile of defensive missiles is dangerously depleted. Real shame! Israel entered the current war with a limited stockpile of defensive missiles after a large number of them were consumed in the clashes that took place Meanwhile according to Israeli media there are violent explosions in "Tel Aviv" resulting from the fall of projectiles from an Iranian fragmentation missile with Iran last summer. According to kosher Minister Miki Zohar: “We know that in the coming days there may be an escalation, and all of Israel, should be more prepared in the coming days, it is very likely that the war will continue for many more weeks.”

Truth_teller 🇷🇺

32,284 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Day 2: Israel decimales Iranian Installations - Iran Retaliates Unprecedentedly Overnight Israel and the US have been relentlessly bombing Iranian territory on the second day of the war, launching strikes primarily from Iraqi and Saudi airspace. Approximately 1,000 targets have been hit in Iran, including air bases and bunkers. The Iranian navy was also targeted, with 3 to 4 warships sunk. However, it's worth noting that only one of these vessels was modern; the others date back to the 1960s. The hunt for Iranian missile launchers continues, with Israel striking several mobile launchers and anti-aircraft units daily. This is an extremely arduous task, as estimates from The Military Balance suggest Iran may possess up to 500 mobile launchers and hundreds of SHORAD systems. On this second day, Iran decided to strike five bases/airports being used by US-Israel forces all at once. The Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles, with several reports of smoke rising. Similarly, Iraq's Ain Al-Asad base was targeted. But nothing compared to the intensity of the attacks on Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and Ben Gurion Airport, which came under several ballistic missiles overnight. And do you know what the biggest problem is? Iranian missiles are slipping through Israeli and American air defenses like a hot knife through butter. Yesterday and today, I've shown videos where launchers fire up to 9 (or more) interceptors in attempts to down a single Iranian missile, often with little success. Iran's retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE continued on the second day, mainly using drones. As I mentioned yesterday, Iran has proven that the war is only just beginning. It targeted Israeli cities with modern missiles that disperse submunitions during reentry, significantly expanding the affected areas. These missiles had never been used before in combat, showing that Iran is now deploying its most advanced systems, which are also far more resilient to interceptors. At the current rate, interceptors will run out soon, and panic will grip both Israeli and American leadership. Both sides are failing in their primary objective: significantly reducing Iran's launch capacity, which remains high, with roughly 450 missiles and 850 drones ready in just two days. If this pace holds, defensive munitions won't last more than 4-5 days. Based on what we've observed, Iran launches 200-220 missiles per day, while the coalition expends no fewer than 700-1,000 interceptors (or even more), with very limited success. In the best-case scenario, this gives about 5 days of defensive ammo left; in the realistic (worst-case) scenario I've estimated from the interceptions I've seen, it's only 4 days. This puts enormous pressure on the leaders of both countries to seek a ceasefire. I believe that if Iran refuses a ceasefire, both Israel and the US will push for Gulf countries to enter the war, aiming to bolster defenses and deter further Iranian actions. The entry of these countries would be paramount for the US and Israel due to their air support and, especially, their naval power. These Gulf nations possess approximately 400 vessels, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats. But until that happens, the war boils down to the same question: What runs out first, Iran's missile launch capability or the coalition's interceptors?

Day 2: Israel decimales Iranian Installations - Iran Retaliates Unprecedentedly Overnight Israel and the US have been relentlessly bombing Iranian territory on the second day of the war, launching strikes primarily from Iraqi and Saudi airspace. Approximately 1,000 targets have been hit in Iran, including air bases and bunkers. The Iranian navy was also targeted, with 3 to 4 warships sunk. However, it's worth noting that only one of these vessels was modern; the others date back to the 1960s. The hunt for Iranian missile launchers continues, with Israel striking several mobile launchers and anti-aircraft units daily. This is an extremely arduous task, as estimates from The Military Balance suggest Iran may possess up to 500 mobile launchers and hundreds of SHORAD systems. On this second day, Iran decided to strike five bases/airports being used by US-Israel forces all at once. The Saudi Prince Sultan Air Base was hit by multiple ballistic missiles, with several reports of smoke rising. Similarly, Iraq's Ain Al-Asad base was targeted. But nothing compared to the intensity of the attacks on Erbil Air Base in northern Iraq and Ben Gurion Airport, which came under several ballistic missiles overnight. And do you know what the biggest problem is? Iranian missiles are slipping through Israeli and American air defenses like a hot knife through butter. Yesterday and today, I've shown videos where launchers fire up to 9 (or more) interceptors in attempts to down a single Iranian missile, often with little success. Iran's retaliation against US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE continued on the second day, mainly using drones. As I mentioned yesterday, Iran has proven that the war is only just beginning. It targeted Israeli cities with modern missiles that disperse submunitions during reentry, significantly expanding the affected areas. These missiles had never been used before in combat, showing that Iran is now deploying its most advanced systems, which are also far more resilient to interceptors. At the current rate, interceptors will run out soon, and panic will grip both Israeli and American leadership. Both sides are failing in their primary objective: significantly reducing Iran's launch capacity, which remains high, with roughly 450 missiles and 850 drones ready in just two days. If this pace holds, defensive munitions won't last more than 4-5 days. Based on what we've observed, Iran launches 200-220 missiles per day, while the coalition expends no fewer than 700-1,000 interceptors (or even more), with very limited success. In the best-case scenario, this gives about 5 days of defensive ammo left; in the realistic (worst-case) scenario I've estimated from the interceptions I've seen, it's only 4 days. This puts enormous pressure on the leaders of both countries to seek a ceasefire. I believe that if Iran refuses a ceasefire, both Israel and the US will push for Gulf countries to enter the war, aiming to bolster defenses and deter further Iranian actions. The entry of these countries would be paramount for the US and Israel due to their air support and, especially, their naval power. These Gulf nations possess approximately 400 vessels, including frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats. But until that happens, the war boils down to the same question: What runs out first, Iran's missile launch capability or the coalition's interceptors?

Patricia Marins

736,505 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Iran launches symbolic missile attack against Israel, which retaliates strongly After Iran launched a symbolic attack against Israel in protest against the attacks on Beirut, hours later it was Israel's turn to retaliate, this time indeed with violence and hitting more than 10 targets in Iran, including Tehran airport and Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Kermanshah, Karaj, and some other areas in western Iran. Israel used air-launched ballistic missiles from Iranian airspace and also dared to launch cruise missiles from ships stationed in the Mediterranean. The White House said the US had no part in the attack; however, strangely, American tanker planes were seen in the air. Refueling whom? It wasn't my motorcycle. There are two questions at this moment: One is that since the Iranian retaliation did not hit targets in Israel in a significant way, it is very likely that Iran still has a serious problem with the refurbishment and upgrade of its long-range missiles. And the other is that perhaps the US has not only reinstated THAAD radars and others but also added more batteries brought from Asia that were positioned in advance in the corridors. Be that as it may, the current situation forces Iran to retaliate and show that it possesses real means of inflicting damage on Israel. There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon in the way Iran desires, simply because Israel saw the quantity of missiles that Hezbollah accumulated in a short period of time and will not allow that again. Israel has its own agenda, its own interests, and they are completely antagonistic to the peace plan that has been discussed. Trump is trying to save his political skin, but Netanyahu will impose his agenda and Trump will be dragged along by it. But while Trump isn't dragged along, Iran seems to be wanting to settle scores with Israel, launching a new wave of missiles along with Yemen, which, by all accounts, has also decided to launch missiles against Israel. It remains to be seen what the level of these attacks will be. In the last few instances, the Houthis launched merely symbolic attacks. Join my substack and support my work:

Iran launches symbolic missile attack against Israel, which retaliates strongly After Iran launched a symbolic attack against Israel in protest against the attacks on Beirut, hours later it was Israel's turn to retaliate, this time indeed with violence and hitting more than 10 targets in Iran, including Tehran airport and Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, Kermanshah, Karaj, and some other areas in western Iran. Israel used air-launched ballistic missiles from Iranian airspace and also dared to launch cruise missiles from ships stationed in the Mediterranean. The White House said the US had no part in the attack; however, strangely, American tanker planes were seen in the air. Refueling whom? It wasn't my motorcycle. There are two questions at this moment: One is that since the Iranian retaliation did not hit targets in Israel in a significant way, it is very likely that Iran still has a serious problem with the refurbishment and upgrade of its long-range missiles. And the other is that perhaps the US has not only reinstated THAAD radars and others but also added more batteries brought from Asia that were positioned in advance in the corridors. Be that as it may, the current situation forces Iran to retaliate and show that it possesses real means of inflicting damage on Israel. There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon in the way Iran desires, simply because Israel saw the quantity of missiles that Hezbollah accumulated in a short period of time and will not allow that again. Israel has its own agenda, its own interests, and they are completely antagonistic to the peace plan that has been discussed. Trump is trying to save his political skin, but Netanyahu will impose his agenda and Trump will be dragged along by it. But while Trump isn't dragged along, Iran seems to be wanting to settle scores with Israel, launching a new wave of missiles along with Yemen, which, by all accounts, has also decided to launch missiles against Israel. It remains to be seen what the level of these attacks will be. In the last few instances, the Houthis launched merely symbolic attacks. Join my substack and support my work:

Patricia Marins

200,620 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

💢 Iran presses attacks on Jordan and Gulf states following US strikes on Iran Jordan’s military said it shot down 3 Iranian missiles Sunday, with a 4th landing in an open area. Sirens sounded in Amman, and footage online appeared to show impacts around Aqaba, including at or near King Hussein International Airport, where thick black smoke rose. The airport has hosted U.S. military aircraft. The U.S. Aegis system downed the primary warhead of a missile fired at Aqaba, the Jerusalem Post reported, after which Israel fired two Iron Dome interceptors at falling fragments, which landed near but not inside Eilat. The attacks followed Iranian strikes in Jordan on Friday that killed two U.S. service members and left a third missing, with dozens more wounded in recent days, U.S. officials told the New York Times. The two were killed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, the Wall Street Journal reported, where a THAAD system was struck in March.

💢 Iran presses attacks on Jordan and Gulf states following US strikes on Iran Jordan’s military said it shot down 3 Iranian missiles Sunday, with a 4th landing in an open area. Sirens sounded in Amman, and footage online appeared to show impacts around Aqaba, including at or near King Hussein International Airport, where thick black smoke rose. The airport has hosted U.S. military aircraft. The U.S. Aegis system downed the primary warhead of a missile fired at Aqaba, the Jerusalem Post reported, after which Israel fired two Iron Dome interceptors at falling fragments, which landed near but not inside Eilat. The attacks followed Iranian strikes in Jordan on Friday that killed two U.S. service members and left a third missing, with dozens more wounded in recent days, U.S. officials told the New York Times. The two were killed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, the Wall Street Journal reported, where a THAAD system was struck in March.

Drop Site

39,563 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 Iran's Ballistic Missile Threat Moves Into Europe, United Kingdom First, Ukraine Now. Ukraine has become the second country after the United Kingdom to face an Iranian ballistic missile warning from Tehran. The warning follows Iran's accusation that Ukraine carried out a drone attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea that killed one Iranian sailor. Tehran condemned the incident, summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, and vowed retaliation. Iranian officials and state affiliated media have since warned that parts of Ukraine are within range of Iran's ballistic missiles. Iran's Sejjil-2 medium range ballistic missile has an estimated range of up to 2,000 km, while the distance from western Iran to eastern Ukraine is roughly 1,700–2,000 km, placing portions of Ukrainian territory within its theoretical strike range. A threat once confined to the Middle East is now being directed toward Europe.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 Iran's Ballistic Missile Threat Moves Into Europe, United Kingdom First, Ukraine Now. Ukraine has become the second country after the United Kingdom to face an Iranian ballistic missile warning from Tehran. The warning follows Iran's accusation that Ukraine carried out a drone attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea that killed one Iranian sailor. Tehran condemned the incident, summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, and vowed retaliation. Iranian officials and state affiliated media have since warned that parts of Ukraine are within range of Iran's ballistic missiles. Iran's Sejjil-2 medium range ballistic missile has an estimated range of up to 2,000 km, while the distance from western Iran to eastern Ukraine is roughly 1,700–2,000 km, placing portions of Ukrainian territory within its theoretical strike range. A threat once confined to the Middle East is now being directed toward Europe.

War Radar

44,943 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat